FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $992.56

BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1037.03  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-11 03:39

MU-LC880 @ $992.56   UNDERWATER $36.04 (3.5% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1037.03  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)
SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)
HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$419,300(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref$83,077/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$548/mo
Unrealized P&L$-32,182fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$41,538/mo
HEDGE COVER
$548/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$83,077/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $74,300
ML VELOCITY
5.0 mo to earn back $419,300
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1037.03 (probe: $1035C 13d) still earns $63,058/mo (76% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$9,776
Hole (after banked)
$22,406
was $32,182 · 30% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$1,054.21 → $1,037.03
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 79 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 31 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,222.57 (+23%) · daily UBB $1,218.81 · 1-wk expected move ±$130 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $1100 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($41,538/mo); it brings $42,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $1035/6d for $85,500/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1240/6d (97% survival, $1,550/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-32,357 and cuts bleed by $548/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 5 × $1100, 82% survival, $42,000/mo (E[net] $13,606/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 6d5 × $110082%$42,000$13,606

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $13,606/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1100 (primary), 82% survival, breach 18%, $42,000/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1135 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 18% → 12%) for $14,375/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $992.56 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $124017 Jul6d24.9%97%7%$310$1,550-$40,450$0
Sell 1 × $1240 24.9% OTM over spot $992.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.25 mid)
= $310 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,550/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1240)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $1243.25)
97%
EV / mo
+$1,130
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  100% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $6,771
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,450
Free roll-up
+$17/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,357 @ 78% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $67.29/sh now → $47.60 mid-life (likely $32.42–$64.08)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$44.50/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 135 simulated challenges: the $1,240 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $1,270 (overshoots $29.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,30731 Jul 202617d left+$15.48/sh+$1,548
cycle +$1,858
[+$1,203…+$2,852] · 93% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$41,887 SAFE
cap gain +$74,069
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,24020 Jul 20266d left+$2.50/sh+$250
cycle +$560
[+$315…+$1,279] · 87% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$32,361 SAFE
cap gain +$64,544
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,24720 Jul 20266d left+$0.03/sh+$3
cycle +$313
[-$57…+$998] · 73% credit
68%
surv 54%
+$33,022 SAFE
cap gain +$65,205
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,35731 Jul 202617d left+$0.58/sh+$58
cycle +$368
[-$589…+$1,331] · 62% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$46,497 SAFE
cap gain +$78,680
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,550/mo
vs 50% target ($41,538/mo)-96%
vs normal income ($83,077/mo)2% covered
Net income (after hedge)$52,329/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1240 is at/above CC-SS $1037.03: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-6,451
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,243.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,240)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,227.60Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,228-1,243.25
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,243.25
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,240.00 (2.1σ)$310$32,111+$64,294+$16,605
+2.5%$1,271.00 (2.3σ)$-2,790$32,793+$64,976+$16,605
+5%$1,302.00 (2.6σ)$-5,890$33,475+$65,658+$16,605
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1037.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,182
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,212
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1240): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$16,009
Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,038 (+$39,221 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,002, the opportunity cost of earning $1,550/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $115517 Jul6d16.4%90%20%$4,350$21,750-$20,250$0
Sell 5 × $1155 16.4% OTM over spot $992.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $9.02 mid)
= $4,350 credit for the 6d cycle → $21,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1155)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1164.03)
91%
EV / mo
+$12,479
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,149
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$17,816
Free roll-up
+$17/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,312 @ 81% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $62.68/sh now → $44.33 mid-life (likely $40.09–$65.96)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $8.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.63/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 417 simulated challenges: the $1,155 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,188 (overshoots $33.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,22231 Jul 202617d left+$16.09/sh+$8,045
cycle +$12,395
[+$4,194…+$10,890] · 88% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$100,210 SAFE
cap gain +$132,392
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,15520 Jul 20266d left+$4.34/sh+$2,169
cycle +$6,519
[+$615…+$5,352] · 82% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$59,130 SAFE
cap gain +$91,312
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,16220 Jul 20266d left+$1.85/sh+$926
cycle +$5,276
[-$777…+$3,752] · 65% credit
68%
surv 55%
+$61,771 SAFE
cap gain +$93,953
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,27231 Jul 202617d left+$1.44/sh+$719
cycle +$5,069
[-$4,431…+$3,202] · 46% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$118,983 SAFE
cap gain +$151,166
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,31231 Jul 202617d left-$8.35/sh-$4,175
cycle +$175
[-$10,279…-$1,884] · 16% credit
81%
surv 78%
+$134,970 SAFE
cap gain +$167,153
budget: banked $4,350 debit $4,175 (96% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$175 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $31,750/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$21,750/mo
vs 50% target ($41,538/mo)-48%
vs normal income ($83,077/mo)26% covered
Net income (after hedge)$21,202/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1155 is at/above CC-SS $1037.03: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-32,345
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.17/sh (~25% of the $8.70 collected) or spot ≥ $1,164.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,143.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,143-1,164.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,164.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,155.00 (1.3σ)$4,350$56,961+$89,144+$43,325
+2.5%$1,183.88 (1.6σ)$-10,088$57,596+$89,779+$43,325
+5%$1,212.75 (1.8σ)$-24,525$58,232+$90,414+$43,325
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1037.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,182
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,212
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1155): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,971 (+$23,212 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,012, the opportunity cost of earning $21,750/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal5 × $113517 Jul6d14.4%88%26%$5,525$27,625-$14,375$0
Sell 5 × $1135 14.4% OTM over spot $992.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $11.48 mid)
= $5,525 credit for the 6d cycle → $27,625/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1135)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays ≤ $1146.47)
89%
EV / mo
+$14,610
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median  ·  92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~1.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-18
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$16,258
Free roll-up
+$17/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,302 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $61.59/sh now → $43.57 mid-life (likely $38.83–$67.46)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $11.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.52/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 531 simulated challenges: the $1,135 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,166 (overshoots $30.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,20231 Jul 202617d left+$16.17/sh+$8,083
cycle +$13,608
[+$3,639…+$10,721] · 89% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$90,983 SAFE
cap gain +$123,166
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,13520 Jul 20266d left+$4.73/sh+$2,363
cycle +$7,888
[+$624…+$5,356] · 82% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$50,059 SAFE
cap gain +$82,242
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,14220 Jul 20266d left+$2.24/sh+$1,118
cycle +$6,643
[-$764…+$3,747] · 62% credit
68%
surv 55%
+$52,698 SAFE
cap gain +$84,880
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,25231 Jul 202617d left+$1.58/sh+$789
cycle +$6,314
[-$5,060…+$3,059] · 42% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$109,789 SAFE
cap gain +$141,971
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,30231 Jul 202617d left-$10.64/sh-$5,319
cycle +$206
[-$12,434…-$3,134] · 12% credit
82%
surv 79%
+$129,781 SAFE
cap gain +$161,963
budget: banked $5,525 debit $5,319 (96% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$206 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $29,053/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$27,625/mo
vs 50% target ($41,538/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($83,077/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$27,077/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1135 is at/above CC-SS $1037.03: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-32,395
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.76/sh (~25% of the $11.05 collected) or spot ≥ $1,146.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,135)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,123.65Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,124-1,146.47
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,146.47
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,135.00 (1.2σ)$5,525$47,696+$79,879+$34,500
+2.5%$1,163.38 (1.4σ)$-8,662$48,320+$80,503+$34,500
+5%$1,191.75 (1.7σ)$-22,850$48,945+$81,127+$34,500
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1037.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,182
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,212
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1135): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,971 (+$23,212 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,012, the opportunity cost of earning $27,625/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $110017 Jul6d10.8%82%27%$8,400$42,000$0
Sell 5 × $1100 10.8% OTM over spot $992.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $17.15 mid)
= $8,400 credit for the 6d cycle → $42,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1100)
82%
Breach risk
18%
POP (stays ≤ $1117.15)
85%
EV / mo
+$18,907
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median  ·  94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~1.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,236
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
27%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$12,711
Free roll-up
+$17/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,307 @ 86% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $59.69/sh now → $42.22 mid-life (likely $42.88–$72.17)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $16.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.42/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 807 simulated challenges: the $1,100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,132 (overshoots $31.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,16731 Jul 202617d left+$16.24/sh+$8,120
cycle +$16,520
[+$2,189…+$9,503] · 85% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$75,625 SAFE
cap gain +$107,808
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,10020 Jul 20266d left+$5.37/sh+$2,684
cycle +$11,084
[+$114…+$4,212] · 77% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$34,985 SAFE
cap gain +$67,167
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,10720 Jul 20266d left+$2.87/sh+$1,434
cycle +$9,834
[-$1,270…+$2,825] · 55% credit
69%
surv 55%
+$37,619 SAFE
cap gain +$69,801
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,21731 Jul 202617d left+$1.77/sh+$884
cycle +$9,284
[-$6,517…+$1,614] · 33% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$94,489 SAFE
cap gain +$126,671
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,30731 Jul 202617d left-$16.64/sh-$8,318
cycle +$82
[-$18,447…-$8,382] · 2% credit
86%
surv 83%
+$132,267 SAFE
cap gain +$164,450
budget: banked $8,400 debit $8,318 (99% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $22,576/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$42,000/mo
vs 50% target ($41,538/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($83,077/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$41,452/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1100 is at/above CC-SS $1037.03: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-32,357
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.20/sh (~25% of the $16.80 collected) or spot ≥ $1,117.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,089.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,089-1,117.15
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,117.15
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$8,400$32,301+$64,484+$19,875
+2.5%$1,127.50 (1.1σ)$-5,350$32,906+$65,089+$19,875
+5%$1,155.00 (1.3σ)$-19,100$33,511+$65,694+$19,875
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1037.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,182
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,212
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1100): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,971 (+$23,212 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,012, the opportunity cost of earning $42,000/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $103517 Jul6d4.3%66%72%$17,100$85,500+$43,500$0
Sell 5 × $1035 4.3% OTM over spot $992.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $34.83 mid)
= $17,100 credit for the 6d cycle → $85,500/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1035)
66%
Breach risk
34%
POP (stays ≤ $1069.83)
75%
EV / mo
+$24,769
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median  ·  95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~3.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $17,082
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
57%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,763
Free roll-up
+$29/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,242 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $56.16/sh now → $39.73 mid-life (likely $50.76–$73.36)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $34.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.53/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,701 simulated challenges: the $1,035 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $1,067 (overshoots $31.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,10231 Jul 202617d left+$16.17/sh+$8,087
cycle +$25,187
[+$987…+$5,992] · 80% credit
74%
surv 66%
+$50,362 SAFE
cap gain +$82,545
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,03520 Jul 20266d left+$6.43/sh+$3,213
cycle +$20,313
[-$146…+$2,484] · 72% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$10,284 SAFE
cap gain +$42,467
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,04720 Jul 20266d left+$0.02/sh+$10
cycle +$17,110
[-$4,268…-$1,274] · 15% credit
69%
surv 56%
+$13,575 SAFE
cap gain +$45,757
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,15731 Jul 202617d left+$0.13/sh+$66
cycle +$17,166
[-$8,906…-$2,817] · 12% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$71,051 SAFE
cap gain +$103,233
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,24224 Jul 202610d left-$28.52/sh-$14,259
cycle +$2,841
[-$26,713…-$18,296]
90%
surv 89%
+$101,096 SAFE
cap gain +$133,279
budget: banked $17,100 debit $14,259 (83% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,841 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $16,814/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$85,500/mo
vs 50% target ($41,538/mo)+106%
vs normal income ($83,077/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$84,952/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1035 is at/above CC-SS $1037.03: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-32,495
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.55/sh (~25% of the $34.20 collected) or spot ≥ $1,069.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,035)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,024.65Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,025-1,069.83
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,069.83
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,035.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$17,100$7,071+$39,254-$3,925
+2.5%$1,060.88 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,163$7,640+$39,823-$3,925
+5%$1,086.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-8,775$8,210+$40,392-$3,925
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1037.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,182
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,212
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1035): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,971 (+$23,212 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,012, the opportunity cost of earning $85,500/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (139 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 139 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$23,212 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $11,041

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10854d15 Jul 2026$11.505/5$43,125$42,57784%87%+$22,410-$00.0%$-3,221 (vs do-nothing $-14,262)
$10804d15 Jul 2026$12.455/5$46,688$46,14083%86%+$23,603-$00.0%$-2,746 (vs do-nothing $-13,787)
$11006d17 Jul 2026$16.805/5$42,000$41,45282%85%+$18,907-$00.0%$-571 (vs do-nothing $-11,612)
$10754d15 Jul 2026$13.105/5$49,125$48,57782%85%+$23,429-$00.0%$-2,421 (vs do-nothing $-13,462)
$10956d17 Jul 2026$17.655/5$44,125$43,57781%84%+$19,125-$00.0%$-146 (vs do-nothing $-11,187)
$10704d15 Jul 2026$14.404/5$43,200$55,48480%84%+$20,344-$00.0%$792 (vs do-nothing $-10,249)
$10906d17 Jul 2026$18.755/5$46,875$46,32780%83%+$19,830-$00.0%$404 (vs do-nothing $-10,637)
$10654d15 Jul 2026$15.554/5$46,650$58,93479%83%+$21,270-$00.0%$1,252 (vs do-nothing $-9,789)
$10856d17 Jul 2026$19.855/5$49,625$49,07779%83%+$20,390-$00.0%$954 (vs do-nothing $-10,087)
$10806d17 Jul 2026$21.004/5$42,000$54,28477%82%+$16,739-$00.0%$3,432 (vs do-nothing $-7,609)
$10604d15 Jul 2026$16.704/5$50,100$62,38477%82%+$21,955-$00.0%$1,712 (vs do-nothing $-9,329)
$10756d17 Jul 2026$22.204/5$44,400$56,68476%81%+$17,137-$00.0%$3,912 (vs do-nothing $-7,129)
$10554d15 Jul 2026$17.954/5$53,850$66,13476%81%+$22,683-$00.0%$2,212 (vs do-nothing $-8,829)
Show 126 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 126.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10706d17 Jul 2026$23.454/5$46,900$59,18475%80%+$17,502-$00.0%$4,412 (vs do-nothing $-6,629)
$10504d15 Jul 2026$19.303/5$43,425$68,54174%80%+$17,580-$00.0%$4,824 (vs do-nothing $-6,217)
$10759d20 Jul 2026$25.355/5$42,250$41,70274%80%+$11,867-$00.0%$3,704 (vs do-nothing $-7,337)
$10656d17 Jul 2026$24.804/5$49,600$61,88474%80%+$17,926-$00.0%$4,952 (vs do-nothing $-6,089)
$10709d20 Jul 2026$26.055/5$43,417$42,86973%79%+$11,064-$00.0%$4,054 (vs do-nothing $-6,987)
$109013d24 Jul 2026$36.455/5$42,058$41,51073%79%+$11,566-$00.0%$9,254 (vs do-nothing $-1,787)
$10606d17 Jul 2026$26.204/5$52,400$64,68473%79%+$18,305-$00.0%$5,512 (vs do-nothing $-5,529)
$10454d15 Jul 2026$20.653/5$46,462$71,57872%79%+$17,932-$00.0%$5,229 (vs do-nothing $-5,812)
$108513d24 Jul 2026$38.055/5$43,904$43,35672%78%+$11,954-$00.0%$10,054 (vs do-nothing $-987)
$107511d22 Jul 2026$32.255/5$43,977$43,42972%78%+$11,474-$00.0%$7,154 (vs do-nothing $-3,887)
$10659d20 Jul 2026$27.505/5$45,833$45,28672%78%+$11,404-$00.0%$4,779 (vs do-nothing $-6,262)
$10556d17 Jul 2026$27.654/5$55,300$67,58471%78%+$18,633-$00.0%$6,092 (vs do-nothing $-4,949)
$108013d24 Jul 2026$40.005/5$46,154$45,60671%78%+$12,686-$00.0%$11,029 (vs do-nothing $-12)
$107011d22 Jul 2026$33.505/5$45,682$45,13471%78%+$11,353-$00.0%$7,779 (vs do-nothing $-3,262)
$10404d15 Jul 2026$22.203/5$49,950$75,06671%78%+$18,507-$00.0%$5,694 (vs do-nothing $-5,347)
$10609d20 Jul 2026$29.555/5$49,250$48,70271%78%+$12,630-$00.0%$5,804 (vs do-nothing $-5,237)
$107513d24 Jul 2026$40.855/5$47,135$46,58770%77%+$12,089-$00.0%$11,454 (vs do-nothing +$413)
$106511d22 Jul 2026$35.205/5$48,000$47,45270%77%+$11,759-$00.0%$8,629 (vs do-nothing $-2,412)
$10506d17 Jul 2026$29.253/5$43,875$68,99170%77%+$14,327-$00.0%$7,809 (vs do-nothing $-3,232)
$10559d20 Jul 2026$30.805/5$51,333$50,78669%77%+$12,407-$00.0%$6,429 (vs do-nothing $-4,612)
$107013d24 Jul 2026$42.405/5$48,923$48,37569%77%+$12,236-$00.0%$12,229 (vs do-nothing +$1,188)
$10354d15 Jul 2026$23.753/5$53,438$78,55369%77%+$18,845-$00.0%$5,551 (vs do-nothing $-5,490)
$106011d22 Jul 2026$36.505/5$49,773$49,22569%77%+$11,532-$00.0%$9,279 (vs do-nothing $-1,762)
$10456d17 Jul 2026$30.803/5$46,200$71,31668%76%+$14,483-$00.0%$8,274 (vs do-nothing $-2,767)
$106513d24 Jul 2026$44.305/5$51,115$50,56868%76%+$12,724-$00.0%$13,179 (vs do-nothing +$2,138)
$10509d20 Jul 2026$32.604/5$43,467$55,75168%76%+$10,385-$00.0%$8,072 (vs do-nothing $-2,969)
$107520d31 Jul 2026$57.105/5$42,825$42,27768%76%+$9,391-$00.0%$19,579 (vs do-nothing +$8,538)
$105511d22 Jul 2026$38.304/5$41,782$54,06668%76%+$9,518-$00.0%$10,352 (vs do-nothing $-689)
$106013d24 Jul 2026$45.804/5$42,277$54,56168%76%+$10,148-$00.0%$13,352 (vs do-nothing +$2,311)
$107020d31 Jul 2026$58.955/5$44,213$43,66567%76%+$9,604-$00.0%$20,504 (vs do-nothing +$9,463)
$10406d17 Jul 2026$32.503/5$48,750$73,86667%76%+$14,737-$00.0%$8,784 (vs do-nothing $-2,257)
$10304d15 Jul 2026$25.453/5$57,262$82,37867%76%+$19,272-$00.0%$4,561 (vs do-nothing $-6,480)
$10459d20 Jul 2026$34.854/5$46,467$58,75167%76%+$11,345-$00.0%$8,972 (vs do-nothing $-2,069)
$105011d22 Jul 2026$40.004/5$43,636$55,92067%75%+$9,626-$00.0%$11,032 (vs do-nothing $-9)
$105513d24 Jul 2026$47.304/5$43,662$55,94667%75%+$10,063-$00.0%$13,952 (vs do-nothing +$2,911)
$106520d31 Jul 2026$60.255/5$45,188$44,64066%75%+$9,370-$00.0%$21,154 (vs do-nothing +$10,113)
$10409d20 Jul 2026$36.004/5$48,000$60,28466%75%+$10,736-$00.0%$9,432 (vs do-nothing $-1,609)
$106020d31 Jul 2026$60.755/5$45,562$45,01566%75%+$8,501-$00.0%$21,404 (vs do-nothing +$10,363)
$10356d17 Jul 2026$34.203/5$51,300$76,41666%75%+$14,861-$00.0%$8,686 (vs do-nothing $-2,355)
$104511d22 Jul 2026$41.804/5$45,600$57,88466%75%+$9,769-$00.0%$11,752 (vs do-nothing +$711)
$105013d24 Jul 2026$49.154/5$45,369$57,65366%75%+$10,247-$00.0%$14,692 (vs do-nothing +$3,651)
$10254d15 Jul 2026$27.253/5$61,312$86,42865%75%+$19,666-$00.0%$3,601 (vs do-nothing $-7,440)
$105520d31 Jul 2026$63.755/5$47,812$47,26565%74%+$9,472-$00.0%$22,904 (vs do-nothing +$11,863)
$104513d24 Jul 2026$50.854/5$46,938$59,22265%74%+$10,237-$00.0%$15,372 (vs do-nothing +$4,331)
$104011d22 Jul 2026$42.454/5$46,309$58,59364%74%+$8,579-$00.0%$12,012 (vs do-nothing +$971)
$10359d20 Jul 2026$36.654/5$48,867$61,15164%74%+$9,356-$00.0%$8,881 (vs do-nothing $-2,160)
$10306d17 Jul 2026$36.003/5$54,000$79,11664%74%+$15,002-$00.0%$7,726 (vs do-nothing $-3,315)
$105020d31 Jul 2026$65.555/5$49,162$48,61564%74%+$9,507-$00.0%$23,804 (vs do-nothing +$12,763)
$104013d24 Jul 2026$53.004/5$48,923$61,20764%74%+$10,586-$00.0%$16,232 (vs do-nothing +$5,191)
$103511d22 Jul 2026$44.354/5$48,382$60,66663%73%+$8,675-$00.0%$11,961 (vs do-nothing +$920)
$104520d31 Jul 2026$67.055/5$50,287$49,74063%73%+$9,281-$00.0%$24,554 (vs do-nothing +$13,513)
$10204d15 Jul 2026$28.752/5$43,125$81,07363%74%+$12,746-$00.0%$5,381 (vs do-nothing $-5,660)
$10309d20 Jul 2026$39.554/5$52,733$65,01763%74%+$10,869-$00.0%$8,041 (vs do-nothing $-3,000)
$10256d17 Jul 2026$38.003/5$57,000$82,11663%73%+$15,305-$00.0%$6,826 (vs do-nothing $-4,215)
$103513d24 Jul 2026$54.654/5$50,446$62,73063%73%+$10,416-$00.0%$16,081 (vs do-nothing +$5,040)
$104020d31 Jul 2026$69.155/5$51,862$51,31563%73%+$9,469-$00.0%$25,604 (vs do-nothing +$14,563)
$103011d22 Jul 2026$47.054/5$51,327$63,61162%73%+$9,565-$00.0%$11,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$10259d20 Jul 2026$40.504/5$54,000$66,28462%73%+$9,673-$00.0%$6,421 (vs do-nothing $-4,620)
$103520d31 Jul 2026$70.404/5$42,240$54,52462%73%+$7,185-$00.0%$22,381 (vs do-nothing +$11,340)
$103013d24 Jul 2026$56.604/5$52,246$64,53062%73%+$10,464-$00.0%$14,861 (vs do-nothing +$3,820)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-11 03:39