FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $982.98

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1026.11 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $982.98 UNDERWATER $45.62 (4.4% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1026.11 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$78,115/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$626/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-31,495	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$39,058/mo

HEDGE COVER
$626/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$78,115/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
5.4 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1026.11 (probe: $1025C 13d) still earns $59,308/mo (76% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$21,719

was $31,495 · 31% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$1,043.32 → $1,026.11

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 29 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,220.37 (+24%) · daily UBB $1,219.51 · 1-wk expected move ±$127 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $1075 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($39,058/mo); it brings $42,125/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $1015/6d for $84,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1225/6d (97% survival, $1,215/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-31,970 and cuts bleed by $626/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 5 × $1075, 79% survival, $42,125/mo (E[net] $11,718/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 6d	5 × $1075	79%	$42,125	$11,718

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $11,718/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1075 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $42,125/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1110 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 21% → 14%) for $14,750/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1110 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $982.98 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1225

17 Jul

24.6%

97%

$243

$1,215

-$40,910

Sell 1 × $1225 24.6% OTM over spot $982.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.79 mid)

= $243 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,215/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1225)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1227.79)

97%

EV / mo

+$870

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 98% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,287

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,238

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,342 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $63.35/sh now → $44.81 mid-life (likely $33.26–$65.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$42.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 93 simulated challenges: the $1,225 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $1,260 (overshoots $35.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,292	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$16.38/sh	+$1,638 cycle +$1,881 [+$1,003…+$2,821] · 89% credit	74% surv 65%	+$43,156 SAFE cap gain +$74,651
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,225	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.08/sh	+$308 cycle +$551 [+$14…+$1,194] · 75% credit	66% surv 52%	+$33,649 SAFE cap gain +$65,144
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,227	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.45/sh	+$245 cycle +$488 [-$67…+$1,111] · 72% credit	66% surv 53%	+$33,833 SAFE cap gain +$65,328
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,342	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.13/sh	+$13 cycle +$256 [-$888…+$1,106] · 45% credit	78% surv 72%	+$47,630 SAFE cap gain +$79,125

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,215/mo
vs 50% target ($39,058/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($78,115/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$44,934/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1225 is at/above CC-SS $1026.11: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-6,335

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.61/sh (~25% of the $2.43 collected) or spot ≥ $1,227.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,212.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,213-1,227.79	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,227.79	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,225.00 (2.1σ)	$243	$33,341	+$64,836	+$15,678
+2.5%	$1,255.62 (2.3σ)	$-2,820	$34,015	+$65,510	+$15,678
+5%	$1,286.25 (2.6σ)	$-5,882	$34,689	+$66,184	+$15,678

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1026.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,495

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,514

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1225): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$16,260

Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,279 (+$38,774 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,065, the opportunity cost of earning $1,215/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $1140

17 Jul

16.0%

90%

20%

$3,650

$18,250

-$23,875

Sell 5 × $1140 16.0% OTM over spot $982.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $7.78 mid)

= $3,650 credit for the 6d cycle → $18,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1140)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1147.78)

91%

EV / mo

+$9,882

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,462

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$17,198

Free roll-up

+$16/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,287 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $58.95/sh now → $41.70 mid-life (likely $37.81–$67.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$34.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 411 simulated challenges: the $1,140 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,175 (overshoots $34.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,207	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$16.92/sh	+$8,462 cycle +$12,112 [+$3,757…+$11,659] · 88% credit	74% surv 65%	+$97,564 SAFE cap gain +$129,059
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,140	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.71/sh	+$2,354 cycle +$6,004 [-$114…+$4,976] · 74% credit	66% surv 52%	+$56,472 SAFE cap gain +$87,967
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,147	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.73/sh	+$363 cycle +$4,013 [-$2,915…+$2,605] · 48% credit	67% surv 54%	+$58,145 SAFE cap gain +$89,640
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,262	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.01/sh	+$4 cycle +$3,654 [-$6,515…+$2,231] · 37% credit	79% surv 74%	+$117,816 SAFE cap gain +$149,311
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,287	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$6.10/sh	-$3,051 cycle +$599 [-$10,357…-$1,015] · 21% credit	81% surv 77%	+$127,810 SAFE cap gain +$159,305
budget: banked $3,650 debit $3,051 (84% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$599 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $31,406/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$18,250/mo
vs 50% target ($39,058/mo)	-53%
vs normal income ($78,115/mo)	23% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,624/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1140 is at/above CC-SS $1026.11: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-31,732

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.82/sh (~25% of the $7.30 collected) or spot ≥ $1,147.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,140)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,128.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,129-1,147.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,147.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,140.00 (1.3σ)	$3,650	$54,118	+$85,613	+$38,325
+2.5%	$1,168.50 (1.6σ)	$-10,600	$54,745	+$86,240	+$38,325
+5%	$1,197.00 (1.8σ)	$-24,850	$55,372	+$86,867	+$38,325

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1026.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,495

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,514

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1140): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,981 (+$22,514 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,325, the opportunity cost of earning $18,250/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $1110

17 Jul

12.9%

86%

28%

$5,475

$27,375

-$14,750

Sell 5 × $1110 12.9% OTM over spot $982.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $11.47 mid)

= $5,475 credit for the 6d cycle → $27,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1110)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $1121.47)

88%

EV / mo

+$13,059

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,329

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

20%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$14,825

Free roll-up

+$16/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,277 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $57.40/sh now → $40.60 mid-life (likely $39.66–$65.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$29.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 594 simulated challenges: the $1,110 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,142 (overshoots $32.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,177	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$17.00/sh	+$8,502 cycle +$13,977 [+$3,761…+$10,429] · 89% credit	74% surv 66%	+$83,769 SAFE cap gain +$115,264
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,110	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.22/sh	+$2,608 cycle +$8,083 [-$198…+$4,182] · 74% credit	66% surv 52%	+$42,892 SAFE cap gain +$74,387
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,117	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.25/sh	+$626 cycle +$6,101 [-$2,679…+$2,023] · 42% credit	67% surv 54%	+$44,573 SAFE cap gain +$76,068
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,232	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.22/sh	+$108 cycle +$5,583 [-$6,476…+$1,483] · 31% credit	79% surv 74%	+$104,084 SAFE cap gain +$135,579
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,277	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$9.73/sh	-$4,866 cycle +$609 [-$12,500…-$4,004] · 12% credit	83% surv 79%	+$122,601 SAFE cap gain +$154,096
budget: banked $5,475 debit $4,866 (89% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$609 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $27,236/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$27,375/mo
vs 50% target ($39,058/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($78,115/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$26,749/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1110 is at/above CC-SS $1026.11: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-31,757

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.74/sh (~25% of the $10.95 collected) or spot ≥ $1,121.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,098.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,099-1,121.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,121.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,110.00 (1.1σ)	$5,475	$40,283	+$71,778	+$25,150
+2.5%	$1,137.75 (1.3σ)	$-8,400	$40,894	+$72,389	+$25,150
+5%	$1,165.50 (1.6σ)	$-22,275	$41,504	+$72,999	+$25,150

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1026.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,495

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,514

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1110): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,981 (+$22,514 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,325, the opportunity cost of earning $27,375/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $1075

17 Jul

9.4%

79%

31%

$8,425

$42,125

—

Sell 5 × $1075 9.4% OTM over spot $982.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $17.80 mid)

= $8,425 credit for the 6d cycle → $42,125/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1075)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $1092.80)

83%

EV / mo

+$16,023

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,300

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$11,235

Free roll-up

+$16/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,237 @ 87% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $55.59/sh now → $39.32 mid-life (likely $41.73–$67.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $16.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$22.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 928 simulated challenges: the $1,075 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $1,106 (overshoots $30.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,142	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$17.02/sh	+$8,512 cycle +$16,937 [+$2,816…+$8,499] · 88% credit	74% surv 66%	+$68,459 SAFE cap gain +$99,954
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,075	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.77/sh	+$2,884 cycle +$11,309 [-$399…+$3,249] · 70% credit	66% surv 52%	+$27,847 SAFE cap gain +$59,342
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,082	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.82/sh	+$912 cycle +$9,337 [-$3,028…+$892] · 36% credit	67% surv 55%	+$29,538 SAFE cap gain +$61,033
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,197	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.39/sh	+$197 cycle +$8,622 [-$7,234…-$203] · 24% credit	79% surv 74%	+$88,854 SAFE cap gain +$120,349
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,237	24 Jul 2026	10d left	-$16.54/sh	-$8,270 cycle +$155 [-$16,141…-$9,063]	87% surv 84%	+$101,267 SAFE cap gain +$132,762
budget: banked $8,425 debit $8,270 (98% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$155 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $34,169/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$42,125/mo
vs 50% target ($39,058/mo)	+8%
vs normal income ($78,115/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$41,499/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1075 is at/above CC-SS $1026.11: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-31,970

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.21/sh (~25% of the $16.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,092.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,075)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,064.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,064-1,092.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,092.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,075.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,425	$24,963	+$56,458	+$10,600
+2.5%	$1,101.88 (1.0σ)	$-5,012	$25,555	+$57,050	+$10,600
+5%	$1,128.75 (1.2σ)	$-18,450	$26,146	+$57,641	+$10,600

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1026.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,495

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,514

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1075): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,981 (+$22,514 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,325, the opportunity cost of earning $42,125/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $1015

17 Jul

3.3%

63%

77%

$16,800

$84,000

+$41,875

Sell 5 × $1015 3.3% OTM over spot $982.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $35.17 mid)

= $16,800 credit for the 6d cycle → $84,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1015)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $1050.17)

73%

EV / mo

+$18,370

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,779

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

59%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,762

Free roll-up

+$28/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,207 @ 90% POP

88% survival

Buyback gross: $52.49/sh now → $37.12 mid-life (likely $47.94–$71.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $33.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,770 simulated challenges: the $1,015 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $1,047 (overshoots $31.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,082	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$16.88/sh	+$8,438 cycle +$25,238 [+$1,383…+$6,199] · 82% credit	75% surv 66%	+$45,439 SAFE cap gain +$76,934
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,015	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$6.60/sh	+$3,302 cycle +$20,102 [-$845…+$2,036] · 63% credit	66% surv 52%	+$5,321 SAFE cap gain +$36,816
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,027	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.41/sh	+$206 cycle +$17,006 [-$5,035…-$1,423] · 14% credit	68% surv 56%	+$8,498 SAFE cap gain +$39,993
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,137	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.55/sh	+$273 cycle +$17,073 [-$8,925…-$2,625] · 13% credit	80% surv 75%	+$65,985 SAFE cap gain +$97,480
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,207	24 Jul 2026	10d left	-$20.85/sh	-$10,423 cycle +$6,377 [-$20,874…-$13,560]	90% surv 88%	+$91,829 SAFE cap gain +$123,324
budget: banked $16,800 debit $10,423 (62% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6,377 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $24,418/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$84,000/mo
vs 50% target ($39,058/mo)	+115%
vs normal income ($78,115/mo)	108% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$83,374/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1015 is at/above CC-SS $1026.11: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-32,282

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.40/sh (~25% of the $33.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,050.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,015)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,004.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,005-1,050.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,050.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,015.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$16,800	$2,018	+$33,513	-$3,525
+2.5%	$1,040.38 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,112	$2,577	+$34,072	-$11,025
+5%	$1,065.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-8,575	$3,135	+$34,630	-$11,025

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1026.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,495

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,514

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1015): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,981 (+$22,514 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,325, the opportunity cost of earning $84,000/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (132 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 132 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,514 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $11,344

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1065	4d	15 Jul 2026	$10.80	5/5	$40,500	$39,874	83%	85%	+$18,127	-$0	0.0%	$-3,581 (vs do-nothing $-14,925)
$1060	4d	15 Jul 2026	$11.45	5/5	$42,938	$42,311	81%	84%	+$17,889	-$0	0.0%	$-3,256 (vs do-nothing $-14,600)
$1055	4d	15 Jul 2026	$12.45	5/5	$46,688	$46,061	80%	84%	+$18,682	-$0	0.0%	$-2,756 (vs do-nothing $-14,100)
$1075	6d	17 Jul 2026	$16.85	5/5	$42,125	$41,499	79%	83%	+$16,023	-$0	0.0%	$-556 (vs do-nothing $-11,900)
$1070	6d	17 Jul 2026	$18.00	5/5	$45,000	$44,374	78%	82%	+$16,646	-$0	0.0%	$19 (vs do-nothing $-11,325)
$1050	4d	15 Jul 2026	$14.00	4/5	$42,000	$52,460	78%	83%	+$16,989	-$0	0.0%	$684 (vs do-nothing $-10,660)
$1065	6d	17 Jul 2026	$18.95	5/5	$47,375	$46,749	77%	82%	+$16,605	-$0	0.0%	$494 (vs do-nothing $-10,850)
$1045	4d	15 Jul 2026	$14.65	4/5	$43,950	$54,410	77%	81%	+$16,073	-$0	0.0%	$944 (vs do-nothing $-10,400)
$1060	6d	17 Jul 2026	$20.00	4/5	$40,000	$50,460	76%	81%	+$13,312	-$0	0.0%	$3,084 (vs do-nothing $-8,260)
$1040	4d	15 Jul 2026	$16.10	4/5	$48,300	$58,760	75%	80%	+$17,283	-$0	0.0%	$1,524 (vs do-nothing $-9,820)
$1055	6d	17 Jul 2026	$21.40	4/5	$42,800	$53,260	74%	80%	+$13,897	-$0	0.0%	$3,644 (vs do-nothing $-7,700)
$1060	9d	20 Jul 2026	$24.00	5/5	$40,000	$39,374	73%	79%	+$9,728	-$0	0.0%	$3,019 (vs do-nothing $-8,325)
$1035	4d	15 Jul 2026	$17.70	3/5	$39,825	$61,372	73%	79%	+$13,989	-$0	0.0%	$4,459 (vs do-nothing $-6,885)

Show 119 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 119.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1050	6d	17 Jul 2026	$23.20	4/5	$46,400	$56,860	73%	79%	+$15,131	-$0	0.0%	$4,364 (vs do-nothing $-6,980)
$1075	13d	24 Jul 2026	$35.25	5/5	$40,673	$40,047	72%	78%	+$10,071	-$0	0.0%	$8,644 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$1055	9d	20 Jul 2026	$26.00	5/5	$43,333	$42,707	72%	78%	+$11,052	-$0	0.0%	$4,019 (vs do-nothing $-7,325)
$1045	6d	17 Jul 2026	$23.90	4/5	$47,800	$58,260	72%	78%	+$14,009	-$0	0.0%	$4,644 (vs do-nothing $-6,700)
$1070	13d	24 Jul 2026	$36.35	5/5	$41,942	$41,316	71%	78%	+$9,843	-$0	0.0%	$9,194 (vs do-nothing $-2,150)
$1030	4d	15 Jul 2026	$18.80	3/5	$42,300	$63,847	71%	78%	+$13,660	-$0	0.0%	$4,789 (vs do-nothing $-6,555)
$1060	11d	22 Jul 2026	$31.20	5/5	$42,545	$41,919	71%	78%	+$9,464	-$0	0.0%	$6,619 (vs do-nothing $-4,725)
$1050	9d	20 Jul 2026	$26.45	5/5	$44,083	$43,457	71%	78%	+$9,678	-$0	0.0%	$4,244 (vs do-nothing $-7,100)
$1065	13d	24 Jul 2026	$37.90	5/5	$43,731	$43,105	71%	77%	+$10,073	-$0	0.0%	$9,969 (vs do-nothing $-1,375)
$1040	6d	17 Jul 2026	$25.70	4/5	$51,400	$61,860	70%	77%	+$14,926	-$0	0.0%	$5,364 (vs do-nothing $-5,980)
$1055	11d	22 Jul 2026	$32.10	5/5	$43,773	$43,147	70%	77%	+$8,853	-$0	0.0%	$7,069 (vs do-nothing $-4,275)
$1045	9d	20 Jul 2026	$28.05	5/5	$46,750	$46,124	70%	77%	+$10,101	-$0	0.0%	$5,044 (vs do-nothing $-6,300)
$1060	13d	24 Jul 2026	$39.25	5/5	$45,288	$44,662	70%	77%	+$10,009	-$0	0.0%	$10,644 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$1025	4d	15 Jul 2026	$20.75	3/5	$46,688	$68,234	70%	77%	+$15,002	-$0	0.0%	$5,040 (vs do-nothing $-6,304)
$1050	11d	22 Jul 2026	$33.65	5/5	$45,886	$45,260	69%	76%	+$9,041	-$0	0.0%	$7,844 (vs do-nothing $-3,500)
$1035	6d	17 Jul 2026	$27.20	3/5	$40,800	$62,347	69%	77%	+$11,306	-$0	0.0%	$7,309 (vs do-nothing $-4,035)
$1070	20d	31 Jul 2026	$52.10	5/5	$39,075	$38,449	69%	76%	+$8,244	-$0	0.0%	$17,069 (vs do-nothing +$5,725)
$1055	13d	24 Jul 2026	$40.80	5/5	$47,077	$46,451	69%	76%	+$10,112	-$0	0.0%	$11,419 (vs do-nothing +$75)
$1040	9d	20 Jul 2026	$29.95	4/5	$39,933	$50,394	69%	76%	+$8,720	-$0	0.0%	$7,064 (vs do-nothing $-4,280)
$1065	20d	31 Jul 2026	$53.05	5/5	$39,787	$39,161	68%	76%	+$7,836	-$0	0.0%	$17,544 (vs do-nothing +$6,200)
$1045	11d	22 Jul 2026	$35.45	5/5	$48,341	$47,715	68%	76%	+$9,480	-$0	0.0%	$8,744 (vs do-nothing $-2,600)
$1050	13d	24 Jul 2026	$42.65	4/5	$39,369	$49,830	68%	76%	+$8,396	-$0	0.0%	$12,144 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$1020	4d	15 Jul 2026	$22.15	3/5	$49,838	$71,384	68%	76%	+$14,853	-$0	0.0%	$3,960 (vs do-nothing $-7,384)
$1030	6d	17 Jul 2026	$28.30	3/5	$42,450	$63,997	67%	76%	+$10,689	-$0	0.0%	$7,639 (vs do-nothing $-3,705)
$1060	20d	31 Jul 2026	$55.10	5/5	$41,325	$40,699	67%	76%	+$8,218	-$0	0.0%	$18,569 (vs do-nothing +$7,225)
$1035	9d	20 Jul 2026	$31.60	4/5	$42,133	$52,594	67%	76%	+$8,925	-$0	0.0%	$7,724 (vs do-nothing $-3,620)
$1040	11d	22 Jul 2026	$36.10	4/5	$39,382	$49,842	67%	75%	+$6,607	-$0	0.0%	$9,524 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$1045	13d	24 Jul 2026	$44.30	4/5	$40,892	$51,353	67%	75%	+$8,465	-$0	0.0%	$12,804 (vs do-nothing +$1,460)
$1055	20d	31 Jul 2026	$56.95	5/5	$42,713	$42,086	67%	75%	+$8,415	-$0	0.0%	$19,494 (vs do-nothing +$8,150)
$1030	9d	20 Jul 2026	$33.00	4/5	$44,000	$54,460	66%	75%	+$8,691	-$0	0.0%	$8,284 (vs do-nothing $-3,060)
$1025	6d	17 Jul 2026	$30.40	3/5	$45,600	$67,147	66%	75%	+$11,438	-$0	0.0%	$7,935 (vs do-nothing $-3,409)
$1050	20d	31 Jul 2026	$59.20	5/5	$44,400	$43,774	66%	75%	+$8,876	-$0	0.0%	$20,619 (vs do-nothing +$9,275)
$1035	11d	22 Jul 2026	$38.95	4/5	$42,491	$52,951	66%	75%	+$7,954	-$0	0.0%	$10,664 (vs do-nothing $-680)
$1040	13d	24 Jul 2026	$45.80	4/5	$42,277	$52,737	66%	75%	+$8,340	-$0	0.0%	$13,404 (vs do-nothing +$2,060)
$1015	4d	15 Jul 2026	$23.85	3/5	$53,662	$75,209	66%	75%	+$15,118	-$0	0.0%	$2,970 (vs do-nothing $-8,374)
$1045	20d	31 Jul 2026	$59.55	5/5	$44,662	$44,036	65%	74%	+$7,875	-$0	0.0%	$20,794 (vs do-nothing +$9,450)
$1035	13d	24 Jul 2026	$47.45	4/5	$43,800	$54,260	65%	74%	+$8,298	-$0	0.0%	$14,064 (vs do-nothing +$2,720)
$1025	9d	20 Jul 2026	$34.65	4/5	$46,200	$56,660	65%	74%	+$8,683	-$0	0.0%	$8,499 (vs do-nothing $-2,845)
$1030	11d	22 Jul 2026	$40.65	4/5	$44,345	$54,806	65%	74%	+$7,969	-$0	0.0%	$11,344 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$1040	20d	31 Jul 2026	$62.05	5/5	$46,537	$45,911	64%	74%	+$8,449	-$0	0.0%	$22,044 (vs do-nothing +$10,700)
$1030	13d	24 Jul 2026	$49.20	4/5	$45,415	$55,876	64%	73%	+$8,291	-$0	0.0%	$14,764 (vs do-nothing +$3,420)
$1010	4d	15 Jul 2026	$25.30	3/5	$56,925	$78,472	64%	74%	+$14,549	-$0	0.0%	$1,905 (vs do-nothing $-9,439)
$1025	11d	22 Jul 2026	$42.30	4/5	$46,145	$56,606	63%	73%	+$7,850	-$0	0.0%	$11,559 (vs do-nothing +$215)
$1035	20d	31 Jul 2026	$63.75	5/5	$47,812	$47,186	63%	73%	+$8,386	-$0	0.0%	$22,894 (vs do-nothing +$11,550)
$1020	9d	20 Jul 2026	$36.40	4/5	$48,533	$58,994	63%	73%	+$8,698	-$0	0.0%	$7,199 (vs do-nothing $-4,145)
$1015	6d	17 Jul 2026	$33.60	3/5	$50,400	$71,947	63%	73%	+$11,022	-$0	0.0%	$5,895 (vs do-nothing $-5,449)
$1025	13d	24 Jul 2026	$51.40	4/5	$47,446	$57,906	63%	73%	+$8,641	-$0	0.0%	$15,199 (vs do-nothing +$3,855)
$1030	20d	31 Jul 2026	$65.05	5/5	$48,787	$48,161	63%	73%	+$7,985	-$0	0.0%	$23,544 (vs do-nothing +$12,200)
$1020	11d	22 Jul 2026	$44.30	4/5	$48,327	$58,788	62%	73%	+$8,032	-$0	0.0%	$10,359 (vs do-nothing $-985)
$1022.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$52.15	4/5	$48,138	$58,599	62%	73%	+$8,471	-$0	0.0%	$14,499 (vs do-nothing +$3,155)
$1015	9d	20 Jul 2026	$38.50	4/5	$51,333	$61,794	62%	73%	+$9,065	-$0	0.0%	$6,039 (vs do-nothing $-5,305)
$1025	20d	31 Jul 2026	$67.40	4/5	$40,440	$50,900	62%	73%	+$6,666	-$0	0.0%	$21,599 (vs do-nothing +$10,255)
$1020	13d	24 Jul 2026	$52.70	4/5	$48,646	$59,106	62%	72%	+$8,102	-$0	0.0%	$13,719 (vs do-nothing +$2,375)
$1010	6d	17 Jul 2026	$36.05	3/5	$54,075	$75,622	61%	72%	+$11,875	-$0	0.0%	$5,130 (vs do-nothing $-6,214)
$1017.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$54.30	4/5	$50,123	$60,583	61%	72%	+$8,687	-$0	0.0%	$13,359 (vs do-nothing +$2,015)
$1015	11d	22 Jul 2026	$45.55	4/5	$49,691	$60,151	61%	72%	+$7,313	-$0	0.0%	$8,859 (vs do-nothing $-2,485)
$1020	20d	31 Jul 2026	$68.80	4/5	$41,280	$51,740	61%	72%	+$6,342	-$0	0.0%	$20,159 (vs do-nothing +$8,815)
$1005	4d	15 Jul 2026	$27.40	2/5	$41,100	$73,733	61%	71%	+$6,467	-$0	0.0%	$4,471 (vs do-nothing $-6,872)
$1015	13d	24 Jul 2026	$55.30	4/5	$51,046	$61,506	61%	72%	+$8,703	-$0	0.0%	$12,759 (vs do-nothing +$1,415)
$1010	9d	20 Jul 2026	$39.85	3/5	$39,850	$61,397	60%	71%	+$2,685	-$0	0.0%	$6,270 (vs do-nothing $-5,074)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-11 14:38