FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $919.80

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $974.57 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $919.80 UNDERWATER $108.80 (10.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $974.57 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$140,659/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$645/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-37,450	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$70,330/mo

HEDGE COVER
$645/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$140,659/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.5 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $974.57 (probe: $975C 11d) still earns $100,909/mo (72% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$27,674

was $37,450 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$991.54 → $974.57

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $974.57 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $990 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $990)

70%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$33,250

Income / mo

$90,682

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $118.14/sh now → $83.59 mid-life (likely $102.49–$141.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $66.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,570 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $1,020 (overshoots $30.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$990	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$18.82/sh	+$9,408 cycle +$42,658 [+$1,287…+$7,216] · 84% credit	75% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$995	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$15.71/sh	+$7,857 cycle +$41,107 [-$438…+$5,509] · 72% credit	75% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,020	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.02/sh	+$1,010 cycle +$34,260 [-$7,982…-$1,752] · 19% credit	77% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,020	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.02/sh	+$1,010 cycle +$34,260 [-$7,982…-$1,752] · 19% credit	77% surv 60%
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,185	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$57.67/sh	-$28,834 cycle +$4,416 [-$46,710…-$35,091]	90% surv 88%
budget: banked $33,250 debit $28,834 (87% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,416 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $32,402/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $995 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $995)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$20,675

Income / mo

$155,062

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $95.93/sh now → $67.85 mid-life (likely $74.52–$126.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $41.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 853 simulated challenges: the $995 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $1,025 (overshoots $29.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,045	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$21.06/sh	+$10,529 cycle +$31,204 [-$5,027…+$10,328] · 64% credit	78% surv 64%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$995	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$9.34/sh	+$4,670 cycle +$25,345 [-$3,027…+$6,214] · 59% credit	79% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,005	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$2.18/sh	+$1,088 cycle +$21,763 [-$7,195…+$1,842] · 35% credit	79% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,090	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.76/sh	+$379 cycle +$21,054 [-$17,335…-$573] · 23% credit	81% surv 72%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,155	24 Jul 2026	9d left	-$39.77/sh	-$19,886 cycle +$789 [-$41,083…-$22,479]	90% surv 87%
budget: banked $20,675 debit $19,886 (96% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$789 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $46,792/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1065 20 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1065)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$11,275

Income / mo

$48,321

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $110.69/sh now → $78.30 mid-life (likely $72.16–$120.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $22.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$55.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 427 simulated challenges: the $1,065 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,093 (overshoots $28.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,110	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$11.28/sh	+$5,640 cycle +$16,915 [-$3,653…+$9,864] · 64% credit	78% surv 63%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,065	22 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.00/sh	+$1,498 cycle +$12,773 [-$2,905…+$4,041] · 56% credit	76% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,065	22 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.92/sh	+$1,458 cycle +$12,733 [-$2,945…+$3,991] · 56% credit	76% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,130	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$3.47/sh	+$1,737 cycle +$13,012 [-$8,263…+$5,646] · 46% credit	80% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,185	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$20.73/sh	-$10,363 cycle +$912 [-$22,963…-$7,406] · 10% credit	84% surv 76%
budget: banked $11,275 debit $10,363 (92% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$912 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $61,682/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (133 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 133 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,592 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $15,742

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1065	4d	17 Jul 2026	$18.95	5/5	$71,062	$70,418	94%	96%	+$66,647	-$0	0.0%	$617 (vs do-nothing $-15,125)
$1060	4d	17 Jul 2026	$20.00	5/5	$75,000	$74,355	94%	96%	+$69,904	-$0	0.0%	$1,142 (vs do-nothing $-14,600)
$1055	4d	17 Jul 2026	$21.40	5/5	$80,250	$79,605	93%	95%	+$74,379	-$0	0.0%	$1,842 (vs do-nothing $-13,900)
$1050	4d	17 Jul 2026	$23.20	5/5	$87,000	$86,355	92%	95%	+$80,248	-$0	0.0%	$2,742 (vs do-nothing $-13,000)
$1045	4d	17 Jul 2026	$23.90	4/5	$71,700	$84,473	91%	95%	+$65,500	-$0	0.0%	$5,622 (vs do-nothing $-10,120)
$1040	4d	17 Jul 2026	$25.70	4/5	$77,100	$89,873	91%	94%	+$69,997	-$0	0.0%	$6,342 (vs do-nothing $-9,400)
$1035	4d	17 Jul 2026	$27.20	4/5	$81,600	$94,373	90%	94%	+$73,480	-$0	0.0%	$6,942 (vs do-nothing $-8,800)
$1030	4d	17 Jul 2026	$28.30	4/5	$84,900	$97,673	89%	93%	+$75,635	-$0	0.0%	$7,382 (vs do-nothing $-8,360)
$1025	4d	17 Jul 2026	$30.40	4/5	$91,200	$103,973	88%	93%	+$80,652	-$0	0.0%	$8,222 (vs do-nothing $-7,520)
$1015	4d	17 Jul 2026	$33.60	3/5	$75,600	$101,792	86%	92%	+$65,412	-$0	0.0%	$11,062 (vs do-nothing $-4,680)
$1010	4d	17 Jul 2026	$36.05	3/5	$81,112	$107,304	84%	92%	+$69,590	-$0	0.0%	$11,797 (vs do-nothing $-3,945)
$1030	7d	20 Jul 2026	$33.00	5/5	$70,714	$70,070	84%	90%	+$56,563	-$0	0.0%	$7,642 (vs do-nothing $-8,100)
$1025	7d	20 Jul 2026	$34.65	5/5	$74,250	$73,605	83%	90%	+$58,726	-$0	0.0%	$8,467 (vs do-nothing $-7,275)

Show 120 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 120.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1005	4d	17 Jul 2026	$37.90	3/5	$85,275	$111,467	83%	91%	+$72,271	-$0	0.0%	$12,352 (vs do-nothing $-3,390)
$1020	7d	20 Jul 2026	$36.40	5/5	$78,000	$77,355	82%	89%	+$60,986	-$0	0.0%	$9,342 (vs do-nothing $-6,400)
$1015	7d	20 Jul 2026	$38.50	5/5	$82,500	$81,855	81%	89%	+$63,871	-$0	0.0%	$10,392 (vs do-nothing $-5,350)
$995	4d	17 Jul 2026	$41.35	3/5	$93,038	$119,229	80%	90%	+$76,589	-$0	0.0%	$13,387 (vs do-nothing $-2,355)
$1010	7d	20 Jul 2026	$39.85	5/5	$85,393	$84,748	80%	88%	+$65,017	-$0	0.0%	$11,067 (vs do-nothing $-4,675)
$1025	9d	22 Jul 2026	$42.30	5/5	$70,500	$69,855	80%	87%	+$50,697	-$0	0.0%	$12,292 (vs do-nothing $-3,450)
$990	4d	17 Jul 2026	$45.00	3/5	$101,250	$127,442	79%	90%	+$82,815	-$0	0.0%	$14,482 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$1005	7d	20 Jul 2026	$42.20	4/5	$72,343	$85,116	79%	88%	+$54,531	-$0	0.0%	$12,942 (vs do-nothing $-2,800)
$1020	9d	22 Jul 2026	$44.30	5/5	$73,833	$73,189	79%	87%	+$52,533	-$0	0.0%	$13,292 (vs do-nothing $-2,450)
$1015	9d	22 Jul 2026	$45.55	5/5	$75,917	$75,272	78%	86%	+$53,021	-$0	0.0%	$13,917 (vs do-nothing $-1,825)
$1000	7d	20 Jul 2026	$45.00	4/5	$77,143	$89,916	78%	87%	+$57,702	-$0	0.0%	$14,062 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$985	4d	17 Jul 2026	$45.90	3/5	$103,275	$129,467	77%	89%	+$82,661	-$0	0.0%	$14,752 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$1010	9d	22 Jul 2026	$47.45	5/5	$79,083	$78,439	77%	86%	+$54,491	-$0	0.0%	$14,867 (vs do-nothing $-875)
$1022.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$52.15	5/5	$71,114	$70,469	76%	85%	+$46,555	-$0	0.0%	$17,217 (vs do-nothing +$1,475)
$995	7d	20 Jul 2026	$46.15	4/5	$79,114	$91,888	76%	87%	+$57,920	-$0	0.0%	$14,522 (vs do-nothing $-1,220)
$1020	11d	24 Jul 2026	$52.70	5/5	$71,864	$71,219	76%	85%	+$47,254	-$0	0.0%	$17,492 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)
$1017.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$54.30	5/5	$74,045	$73,401	76%	85%	+$48,694	-$0	0.0%	$18,292 (vs do-nothing +$2,550)
$980	4d	17 Jul 2026	$48.40	2/5	$72,600	$112,210	76%	89%	+$57,269	-$0	0.0%	$15,582 (vs do-nothing $-160)
$1005	9d	22 Jul 2026	$50.30	5/5	$83,833	$83,189	76%	85%	+$57,438	-$0	0.0%	$16,292 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$1015	11d	24 Jul 2026	$55.30	5/5	$75,409	$74,764	75%	84%	+$48,664	-$0	0.0%	$18,792 (vs do-nothing +$3,050)
$990	7d	20 Jul 2026	$48.50	4/5	$83,143	$95,916	75%	86%	+$60,064	-$0	0.0%	$15,462 (vs do-nothing $-280)
$1012.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$56.30	5/5	$76,773	$76,128	75%	84%	+$49,263	-$0	0.0%	$19,292 (vs do-nothing +$3,550)
$1000	9d	22 Jul 2026	$52.20	5/5	$87,000	$86,355	74%	85%	+$58,690	-$0	0.0%	$17,242 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$1010	11d	24 Jul 2026	$56.90	5/5	$77,591	$76,946	74%	84%	+$49,899	-$0	0.0%	$19,592 (vs do-nothing +$3,850)
$975	4d	17 Jul 2026	$52.00	2/5	$78,000	$117,610	74%	88%	+$60,938	-$0	0.0%	$16,302 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$1007.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$58.30	5/5	$79,500	$78,855	74%	84%	+$50,989	-$0	0.0%	$20,292 (vs do-nothing +$4,550)
$985	7d	20 Jul 2026	$52.00	4/5	$89,143	$101,916	74%	86%	+$64,041	-$0	0.0%	$16,862 (vs do-nothing +$1,120)
$995	9d	22 Jul 2026	$54.40	4/5	$72,533	$85,307	73%	85%	+$48,263	-$0	0.0%	$17,822 (vs do-nothing +$2,080)
$1005	11d	24 Jul 2026	$59.40	5/5	$81,000	$80,355	73%	84%	+$51,650	-$0	0.0%	$20,842 (vs do-nothing +$5,100)
$1002.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$59.85	5/5	$81,614	$80,969	73%	83%	+$51,405	-$0	0.0%	$21,067 (vs do-nothing +$5,325)
$1000	11d	24 Jul 2026	$61.25	5/5	$83,523	$82,878	72%	83%	+$52,434	-$0	0.0%	$21,767 (vs do-nothing +$6,025)
$970	4d	17 Jul 2026	$53.30	2/5	$79,950	$119,560	72%	87%	+$61,006	-$0	0.0%	$15,647 (vs do-nothing $-95)
$980	7d	20 Jul 2026	$53.45	4/5	$91,629	$104,402	72%	85%	+$64,362	-$0	0.0%	$17,442 (vs do-nothing +$1,700)
$990	9d	22 Jul 2026	$56.55	4/5	$75,400	$88,173	72%	84%	+$49,411	-$0	0.0%	$18,682 (vs do-nothing +$2,940)
$995	11d	24 Jul 2026	$63.20	5/5	$86,182	$85,537	71%	83%	+$53,271	-$0	0.0%	$22,742 (vs do-nothing +$7,000)
$975	7d	20 Jul 2026	$55.80	3/5	$71,743	$97,934	71%	85%	+$49,557	-$0	0.0%	$17,722 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$965	4d	17 Jul 2026	$55.90	2/5	$83,850	$123,460	70%	87%	+$62,866	-$0	0.0%	$15,167 (vs do-nothing $-575)
$985	9d	22 Jul 2026	$59.30	4/5	$79,067	$91,840	70%	83%	+$48,726	-$0	0.0%	$19,782 (vs do-nothing +$4,040)
$990	11d	24 Jul 2026	$66.50	4/5	$72,545	$85,319	70%	82%	+$44,365	-$0	0.0%	$22,662 (vs do-nothing +$6,920)
$970	7d	20 Jul 2026	$59.80	3/5	$76,886	$103,077	69%	85%	+$52,848	-$0	0.0%	$17,550 (vs do-nothing +$1,808)
$980	9d	22 Jul 2026	$61.35	4/5	$81,800	$94,573	69%	82%	+$49,585	-$0	0.0%	$20,602 (vs do-nothing +$4,860)
$985	11d	24 Jul 2026	$67.70	4/5	$73,855	$86,628	69%	82%	+$44,129	-$0	0.0%	$23,142 (vs do-nothing +$7,400)
$960	4d	17 Jul 2026	$58.70	2/5	$88,050	$127,660	68%	86%	+$64,862	-$0	0.0%	$14,727 (vs do-nothing $-1,015)
$980	11d	24 Jul 2026	$69.95	4/5	$76,309	$89,082	68%	81%	+$44,971	-$0	0.0%	$24,042 (vs do-nothing +$8,300)
$975	9d	22 Jul 2026	$63.75	4/5	$85,000	$97,773	68%	82%	+$50,820	-$0	0.0%	$21,562 (vs do-nothing +$5,820)
$965	7d	20 Jul 2026	$60.35	3/5	$77,593	$103,784	68%	84%	+$51,584	-$0	0.0%	$16,215 (vs do-nothing +$473)
$970	9d	22 Jul 2026	$66.05	4/5	$88,067	$100,840	67%	82%	+$54,196	-$0	0.0%	$20,652 (vs do-nothing +$4,911)
$975	11d	24 Jul 2026	$74.00	4/5	$80,727	$93,501	67%	81%	+$47,708	-$0	0.0%	$25,662 (vs do-nothing +$9,920)
$985	18d	31 Jul 2026	$86.00	5/5	$71,667	$71,022	67%	80%	+$37,891	-$0	0.0%	$34,142 (vs do-nothing +$18,400)
$955	4d	17 Jul 2026	$62.10	2/5	$93,150	$132,760	67%	86%	+$67,587	-$0	0.0%	$14,407 (vs do-nothing $-1,335)
$960	7d	20 Jul 2026	$63.95	3/5	$82,221	$108,413	66%	83%	+$54,118	-$0	0.0%	$15,795 (vs do-nothing +$53)
$980	18d	31 Jul 2026	$88.00	5/5	$73,333	$72,689	66%	79%	+$38,163	-$0	0.0%	$35,142 (vs do-nothing +$19,400)
$965	9d	22 Jul 2026	$69.00	4/5	$92,000	$104,773	66%	82%	+$55,892	-$0	0.0%	$19,832 (vs do-nothing +$4,091)
$970	11d	24 Jul 2026	$76.00	4/5	$82,909	$95,682	66%	81%	+$48,138	-$0	0.0%	$24,632 (vs do-nothing +$8,891)
$975	18d	31 Jul 2026	$88.35	5/5	$73,625	$72,980	65%	79%	+$37,013	-$0	0.0%	$35,317 (vs do-nothing +$19,575)
$950	4d	17 Jul 2026	$65.35	2/5	$98,025	$137,635	65%	86%	+$69,912	-$0	0.0%	$14,057 (vs do-nothing $-1,685)
$965	11d	24 Jul 2026	$78.10	4/5	$85,200	$97,973	64%	80%	+$48,619	-$0	0.0%	$23,472 (vs do-nothing +$7,731)
$960	9d	22 Jul 2026	$71.65	3/5	$71,650	$97,842	64%	81%	+$42,808	-$0	0.0%	$18,105 (vs do-nothing +$2,363)
$970	18d	31 Jul 2026	$90.95	5/5	$75,792	$75,147	64%	79%	+$37,692	-$0	0.0%	$34,330 (vs do-nothing +$18,588)
$955	7d	20 Jul 2026	$66.20	3/5	$85,114	$111,306	64%	81%	+$50,557	-$0	0.0%	$14,970 (vs do-nothing $-772)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:35