FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $919.01

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $991.00 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $919.01 UNDERWATER $109.59 (10.7% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $991.00 (banked floor $972.57) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$113,807/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$645/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-37,450	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$56,903/mo

HEDGE COVER
$645/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$113,807/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.7 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $991.00 (probe: $990C 14d) still earns $75,871/mo (67% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$27,674

was $37,450 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$991.00 → $972.57

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 72 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 12 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,220.37 (+33%) · daily UBB $1,223.83 · 1-wk expected move ±$122 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $991.00 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $1005 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1005)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$37,825

Income / mo

$63,042

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $995 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $995)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$20,675

Income / mo

$155,062

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $97.00/sh now → $68.60 mid-life (likely $75.23–$126.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $41.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$27.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 841 simulated challenges: the $995 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $1,024 (overshoots $29.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,046	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$20.34/sh	+$10,171 cycle +$30,846 [-$5,302…+$10,068] · 63% credit	78% surv 64%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$995	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$8.98/sh	+$4,490 cycle +$25,165 [-$3,210…+$6,136] · 57% credit	79% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,006	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.36/sh	+$681 cycle +$21,356 [-$7,651…+$1,398] · 32% credit	80% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,086	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$2.49/sh	+$1,245 cycle +$21,920 [-$15,854…+$506] · 27% credit	81% surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,156	24 Jul 2026	9d left	-$40.52/sh	-$20,261 cycle +$414 [-$41,228…-$22,630]	90% surv 87%
budget: banked $20,675 debit $20,261 (98% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$414 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $46,801/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1040 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1040)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$12,850

Income / mo

$96,375

Buyback gross: $101.38/sh now → $71.70 mid-life (likely $66.59–$127.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $25.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$46.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 399 simulated challenges: the $1,040 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $1,070 (overshoots $30.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,091	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$19.91/sh	+$9,957 cycle +$22,807 [-$4,388…+$14,685] · 67% credit	78% surv 64%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,040	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$7.55/sh	+$3,774 cycle +$16,624 [-$2,273…+$8,215] · 64% credit	79% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,046	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$3.46/sh	+$1,728 cycle +$14,578 [-$4,958…+$5,882] · 56% credit	79% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,131	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.94/sh	+$969 cycle +$13,819 [-$15,364…+$4,978] · 42% credit	81% surv 71%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,211	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$25.53/sh	-$12,767 cycle +$83 [-$32,960…-$9,662] · 3% credit	87% surv 82%
budget: banked $12,850 debit $12,767 (99% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $43,286/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (185 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 185 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$32,397 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $19,547

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1080	4d	17 Jul 2026	$15.50	5/5	$58,125	$57,480	96%	97%	+$55,358	-$0	0.0%	$2,697 (vs do-nothing $-16,850)
$1075	4d	17 Jul 2026	$16.85	5/5	$63,188	$62,543	95%	97%	+$59,978	-$0	0.0%	$3,372 (vs do-nothing $-16,175)
$1070	4d	17 Jul 2026	$18.00	5/5	$67,500	$66,855	95%	96%	+$63,783	-$0	0.0%	$3,947 (vs do-nothing $-15,600)
$1065	4d	17 Jul 2026	$18.95	5/5	$71,062	$70,418	94%	96%	+$66,764	-$0	0.0%	$4,422 (vs do-nothing $-15,125)
$1060	4d	17 Jul 2026	$20.00	4/5	$60,000	$72,773	94%	96%	+$56,029	-$0	0.0%	$7,867 (vs do-nothing $-11,680)
$1055	4d	17 Jul 2026	$21.40	4/5	$64,200	$76,973	93%	96%	+$59,623	-$0	0.0%	$8,427 (vs do-nothing $-11,120)
$1050	4d	17 Jul 2026	$23.20	4/5	$69,600	$82,373	92%	95%	+$64,334	-$0	0.0%	$9,147 (vs do-nothing $-10,400)
$1045	4d	17 Jul 2026	$23.90	4/5	$71,700	$84,473	92%	95%	+$65,652	-$0	0.0%	$9,427 (vs do-nothing $-10,120)
$1040	4d	17 Jul 2026	$25.70	3/5	$57,825	$84,017	90%	94%	+$51,686	-$0	0.0%	$12,497 (vs do-nothing $-7,050)
$1035	4d	17 Jul 2026	$27.20	3/5	$61,200	$87,392	89%	93%	+$54,257	-$0	0.0%	$12,947 (vs do-nothing $-6,600)
$1030	4d	17 Jul 2026	$28.30	3/5	$63,675	$89,867	88%	93%	+$55,838	-$0	0.0%	$13,277 (vs do-nothing $-6,270)
$1025	4d	17 Jul 2026	$30.40	3/5	$68,400	$94,592	87%	93%	+$59,569	-$0	0.0%	$13,907 (vs do-nothing $-5,640)
$1015	4d	17 Jul 2026	$33.60	3/5	$75,600	$101,792	85%	92%	+$64,453	-$0	0.0%	$14,867 (vs do-nothing $-4,680)

Show 172 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 172.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1045	7d	20 Jul 2026	$28.05	5/5	$60,107	$59,462	85%	90%	+$45,093	-$0	0.0%	$8,972 (vs do-nothing $-10,575)
$1030	7d	20 Jul 2026	$33.00	5/5	$70,714	$70,070	84%	90%	+$56,806	-$0	0.0%	$11,447 (vs do-nothing $-8,100)
$1040	7d	20 Jul 2026	$29.95	5/5	$64,179	$63,534	84%	89%	+$47,877	-$0	0.0%	$9,922 (vs do-nothing $-9,625)
$1010	4d	17 Jul 2026	$36.05	3/5	$81,112	$107,304	84%	91%	+$68,624	-$0	0.0%	$15,602 (vs do-nothing $-3,945)
$1045	9d	22 Jul 2026	$35.45	5/5	$59,083	$58,439	84%	89%	+$44,588	-$0	0.0%	$12,672 (vs do-nothing $-6,875)
$1025	7d	20 Jul 2026	$34.65	4/5	$59,400	$72,173	83%	90%	+$47,190	-$0	0.0%	$13,727 (vs do-nothing $-5,820)
$1035	7d	20 Jul 2026	$31.60	5/5	$67,714	$67,070	83%	89%	+$50,031	-$0	0.0%	$10,747 (vs do-nothing $-8,800)
$1005	4d	17 Jul 2026	$37.90	3/5	$85,275	$111,467	83%	91%	+$71,311	-$0	0.0%	$16,157 (vs do-nothing $-3,390)
$1040	9d	22 Jul 2026	$36.10	5/5	$60,167	$59,522	83%	89%	+$44,535	-$0	0.0%	$12,997 (vs do-nothing $-6,550)
$1020	7d	20 Jul 2026	$36.40	4/5	$62,400	$75,173	82%	89%	+$49,014	-$0	0.0%	$14,427 (vs do-nothing $-5,120)
$1035	9d	22 Jul 2026	$38.95	5/5	$64,917	$64,272	82%	88%	+$48,068	-$0	0.0%	$14,422 (vs do-nothing $-5,125)
$1050	11d	24 Jul 2026	$42.65	5/5	$58,159	$57,514	81%	87%	+$41,312	-$0	0.0%	$16,272 (vs do-nothing $-3,275)
$1015	7d	20 Jul 2026	$38.50	4/5	$66,000	$78,773	81%	89%	+$51,339	-$0	0.0%	$15,267 (vs do-nothing $-4,280)
$1030	9d	22 Jul 2026	$40.65	5/5	$67,750	$67,105	81%	88%	+$49,601	-$0	0.0%	$15,272 (vs do-nothing $-4,275)
$1045	11d	24 Jul 2026	$44.30	5/5	$60,409	$59,764	81%	87%	+$42,473	-$0	0.0%	$17,097 (vs do-nothing $-2,450)
$1010	7d	20 Jul 2026	$39.85	4/5	$68,314	$81,088	80%	88%	+$52,273	-$0	0.0%	$15,807 (vs do-nothing $-3,740)
$995	4d	17 Jul 2026	$41.35	2/5	$62,025	$101,635	80%	90%	+$50,452	-$0	0.0%	$17,977 (vs do-nothing $-1,570)
$1025	9d	22 Jul 2026	$42.30	5/5	$70,500	$69,855	80%	87%	+$50,962	-$0	0.0%	$16,097 (vs do-nothing $-3,450)
$1040	11d	24 Jul 2026	$45.80	5/5	$62,455	$61,810	80%	87%	+$43,370	-$0	0.0%	$17,847 (vs do-nothing $-1,700)
$1035	11d	24 Jul 2026	$47.45	5/5	$64,705	$64,060	79%	86%	+$44,407	-$0	0.0%	$18,672 (vs do-nothing $-875)
$1005	7d	20 Jul 2026	$42.20	4/5	$72,343	$85,116	79%	88%	+$54,809	-$0	0.0%	$16,747 (vs do-nothing $-2,800)
$1020	9d	22 Jul 2026	$44.30	4/5	$59,067	$71,840	79%	87%	+$42,250	-$0	0.0%	$17,587 (vs do-nothing $-1,960)
$990	4d	17 Jul 2026	$45.00	2/5	$67,500	$107,110	79%	89%	+$54,635	-$0	0.0%	$18,506 (vs do-nothing $-1,041)
$1030	11d	24 Jul 2026	$49.20	5/5	$67,091	$66,446	78%	86%	+$45,515	-$0	0.0%	$19,547 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$1015	9d	22 Jul 2026	$45.55	4/5	$60,733	$73,507	78%	86%	+$42,654	-$0	0.0%	$18,087 (vs do-nothing $-1,460)
$1000	7d	20 Jul 2026	$45.00	3/5	$57,857	$84,049	78%	88%	+$43,500	-$0	0.0%	$18,287 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$1025	11d	24 Jul 2026	$51.40	5/5	$70,091	$69,446	77%	85%	+$47,168	-$0	0.0%	$20,647 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$985	4d	17 Jul 2026	$45.90	2/5	$68,850	$108,460	77%	89%	+$54,575	-$0	0.0%	$17,686 (vs do-nothing $-1,861)
$1010	9d	22 Jul 2026	$47.45	4/5	$63,267	$76,040	77%	86%	+$43,843	-$0	0.0%	$18,847 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$1022.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$52.15	5/5	$71,114	$70,469	77%	85%	+$47,492	-$0	0.0%	$21,022 (vs do-nothing +$1,475)
$1035	14d	27 Jul 2026	$53.43	5/5	$57,244	$56,600	77%	84%	+$35,245	-$0	0.0%	$21,661 (vs do-nothing +$2,114)
$995	7d	20 Jul 2026	$46.15	3/5	$59,336	$85,527	76%	87%	+$43,678	-$0	0.0%	$18,632 (vs do-nothing $-915)
$1020	11d	24 Jul 2026	$52.70	4/5	$57,491	$70,264	76%	85%	+$38,019	-$0	0.0%	$20,947 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$1030	14d	27 Jul 2026	$55.11	5/5	$59,046	$58,401	76%	84%	+$35,926	-$0	0.0%	$22,502 (vs do-nothing +$2,955)
$1017.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$54.30	4/5	$59,236	$72,010	76%	85%	+$39,176	-$0	0.0%	$21,587 (vs do-nothing +$2,040)
$1005	9d	22 Jul 2026	$50.30	4/5	$67,067	$79,840	76%	86%	+$46,214	-$0	0.0%	$19,987 (vs do-nothing +$440)
$980	4d	17 Jul 2026	$48.40	2/5	$72,600	$112,210	76%	88%	+$56,792	-$0	0.0%	$17,186 (vs do-nothing $-2,361)
$1015	11d	24 Jul 2026	$55.30	4/5	$60,327	$73,101	75%	85%	+$39,663	-$0	0.0%	$21,987 (vs do-nothing +$2,440)
$990	7d	20 Jul 2026	$48.50	3/5	$62,357	$88,549	75%	86%	+$45,302	-$0	0.0%	$19,036 (vs do-nothing $-511)
$1025	14d	27 Jul 2026	$56.79	5/5	$60,848	$60,203	75%	84%	+$36,561	-$0	0.0%	$23,342 (vs do-nothing +$3,795)
$1012.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$56.30	4/5	$61,418	$74,192	75%	84%	+$40,135	-$0	0.0%	$22,387 (vs do-nothing +$2,840)
$1000	9d	22 Jul 2026	$52.20	4/5	$69,600	$82,373	75%	85%	+$47,231	-$0	0.0%	$20,747 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$1010	11d	24 Jul 2026	$56.90	4/5	$62,073	$74,846	74%	84%	+$40,155	-$0	0.0%	$22,627 (vs do-nothing +$3,080)
$975	4d	17 Jul 2026	$52.00	2/5	$78,000	$117,610	74%	88%	+$61,239	-$0	0.0%	$16,906 (vs do-nothing $-2,641)
$1020	14d	27 Jul 2026	$58.48	5/5	$62,659	$62,015	74%	83%	+$37,157	-$0	0.0%	$24,188 (vs do-nothing +$4,641)
$1007.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$58.30	4/5	$63,600	$76,373	74%	84%	+$41,032	-$0	0.0%	$23,187 (vs do-nothing +$3,640)
$985	7d	20 Jul 2026	$52.00	3/5	$66,857	$93,049	74%	86%	+$48,302	-$0	0.0%	$18,586 (vs do-nothing $-961)
$995	9d	22 Jul 2026	$54.40	4/5	$72,533	$85,307	73%	85%	+$48,556	-$0	0.0%	$21,627 (vs do-nothing +$2,080)
$1005	11d	24 Jul 2026	$59.40	4/5	$64,800	$77,573	73%	84%	+$41,567	-$0	0.0%	$23,627 (vs do-nothing +$4,080)
$1015	14d	27 Jul 2026	$60.49	5/5	$64,807	$64,162	73%	83%	+$38,038	-$0	0.0%	$25,190 (vs do-nothing +$5,643)
$1002.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$59.85	4/5	$65,291	$78,064	73%	84%	+$41,375	-$0	0.0%	$23,807 (vs do-nothing +$4,260)
$1020	18d	31 Jul 2026	$68.80	5/5	$57,333	$56,689	73%	82%	+$32,306	-$0	0.0%	$29,347 (vs do-nothing +$9,800)
$1010	14d	27 Jul 2026	$62.54	5/5	$67,006	$66,361	72%	82%	+$38,919	-$0	0.0%	$26,216 (vs do-nothing +$6,669)
$970	4d	17 Jul 2026	$53.30	2/5	$79,950	$119,560	72%	88%	+$61,332	-$0	0.0%	$16,166 (vs do-nothing $-3,381)
$1000	11d	24 Jul 2026	$61.25	4/5	$66,818	$79,592	72%	83%	+$42,204	-$0	0.0%	$24,367 (vs do-nothing +$4,820)
$980	7d	20 Jul 2026	$53.45	3/5	$68,721	$94,913	72%	86%	+$48,560	-$0	0.0%	$17,521 (vs do-nothing $-2,026)
$990	9d	22 Jul 2026	$56.55	4/5	$75,400	$88,173	72%	84%	+$49,720	-$0	0.0%	$22,086 (vs do-nothing +$2,539)
$1015	18d	31 Jul 2026	$70.80	5/5	$59,000	$58,355	72%	82%	+$32,884	-$0	0.0%	$30,347 (vs do-nothing +$10,800)
$1005	14d	27 Jul 2026	$64.60	5/5	$69,214	$68,570	72%	82%	+$39,757	-$0	0.0%	$27,247 (vs do-nothing +$7,700)
$995	11d	24 Jul 2026	$63.20	4/5	$68,945	$81,719	71%	83%	+$42,885	-$0	0.0%	$25,147 (vs do-nothing +$5,600)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 19:06