FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $930.83

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1053.86 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $930.83 UNDERWATER $97.77 (9.5% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1053.86 (banked floor $1,035.04) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$76,119/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$559/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-63,280	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$38,060/mo

HEDGE COVER
$559/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$76,119/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1053.86 (probe: $1050C 13d) still earns $28,673/mo (38% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$53,504

was $63,280 · 15% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,053.86 → $1,035.04

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 71 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 17 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,242.78 (+34%) · daily UBB $1,225.61 · 1-wk expected move ±$128 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $1053.86 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $1055 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1055)

76%

Touch odds

52%

Per cycle

$18,275

Income / mo

$32,250

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $1060 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1060)

81%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$11,325

Income / mo

$33,975

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $77.53/sh now → $54.85 mid-life (likely $56.82–$86.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $22.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 989 simulated challenges: the $1,060 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $1,094 (overshoots $34.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,082	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$6.89/sh	+$3,446 cycle +$14,771 [-$662…+$4,683] · 67% credit	70% surv 58%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,060	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.17/sh	+$585 cycle +$11,910 [-$2,629…+$1,697] · 39% credit	67% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,099	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.76/sh	+$379 cycle +$11,704 [-$4,153…+$1,272] · 32% credit	72% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,164	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$21.64/sh	-$10,820 cycle +$505 [-$18,512…-$11,152] · 1% credit	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $11,325 debit $10,820 (96% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$505 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $41,516/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1070 20 Jul 2026 (6d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1070)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$3,575

Income / mo

$17,875

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $57.35/sh now → $40.56 mid-life (likely $35.57–$65.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 448 simulated challenges: the $1,070 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,100 (overshoots $30.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,070	22 Jul 2026	5d left	+$5.89/sh	+$2,945 cycle +$6,520 [+$488…+$4,169] · 79% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,139	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$10.16/sh	+$5,080 cycle +$8,655 [+$59…+$7,265] · 75% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,079	22 Jul 2026	5d left	+$2.21/sh	+$1,104 cycle +$4,679 [-$1,785…+$2,094] · 55% credit	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,164	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.91/sh	+$455 cycle +$4,030 [-$5,688…+$2,597] · 44% credit	77% surv 71%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,194	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$6.01/sh	-$3,007 cycle +$568 [-$9,920…-$1,125] · 18% credit	81% surv 76%
budget: banked $3,575 debit $3,007 (84% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$568 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $37,017/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (152 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 152 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.051 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$64,651 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,142

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1045	3d	17 Jul 2026	$7.90	5/5	$39,500	$38,941	90%	91%	+$26,848	-$479	0.6%	$892 (vs do-nothing $-3,250)
$1040	3d	17 Jul 2026	$8.65	5/5	$43,250	$42,691	89%	91%	+$28,847	-$2,604	3.5%	$-1,233 (vs do-nothing $-5,375)
$1035	3d	17 Jul 2026	$9.75	4/5	$39,000	$47,261	88%	90%	+$25,899	-$3,643	4.9%	$-1,718 (vs do-nothing $-5,860)
$1030	3d	17 Jul 2026	$10.25	4/5	$41,000	$49,261	88%	90%	+$28,134	-$5,443	7.3%	$-3,518 (vs do-nothing $-7,660)
$1025	3d	17 Jul 2026	$11.00	4/5	$44,000	$52,261	86%	88%	+$27,135	-$7,143	9.6%	$-5,218 (vs do-nothing $-9,360)
$1015	3d	17 Jul 2026	$12.95	3/5	$38,850	$55,931	84%	88%	+$24,581	-$7,773	10.5%	$-5,293 (vs do-nothing $-9,435)
$1010	3d	17 Jul 2026	$14.00	3/5	$42,000	$59,081	83%	87%	+$25,822	-$8,958	12.1%	$-6,478 (vs do-nothing $-10,620)
$1005	3d	17 Jul 2026	$15.15	3/5	$45,450	$62,531	82%	86%	+$27,154	-$10,113	13.6%	$-7,633 (vs do-nothing $-11,775)
$1015	6d	20 Jul 2026	$15.40	5/5	$38,500	$37,941	79%	83%	+$14,345	-$11,729	15.8%	$-10,358 (vs do-nothing $-14,500)
$995	3d	17 Jul 2026	$17.85	3/5	$53,550	$70,631	78%	84%	+$30,321	-$12,303	16.6%	$-9,823 (vs do-nothing $-13,965)
$1045	10d	24 Jul 2026	$25.85	5/5	$38,775	$38,216	78%	83%	+$14,874	-$0	0.0%	$9,867 (vs do-nothing +$5,725)
$1010	6d	20 Jul 2026	$16.75	5/5	$41,875	$41,316	78%	82%	+$15,491	-$13,554	18.2%	$-12,183 (vs do-nothing $-16,325)
$1040	10d	24 Jul 2026	$27.00	5/5	$40,500	$39,941	77%	82%	+$15,146	-$0	0.0%	$7,942 (vs do-nothing +$3,800)

Show 139 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 139.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1025	8d	22 Jul 2026	$20.30	5/5	$38,062	$37,503	77%	81%	+$9,324	-$4,279	5.8%	$-2,908 (vs do-nothing $-7,050)
$1005	6d	20 Jul 2026	$18.30	5/5	$45,750	$45,191	77%	82%	+$16,959	-$15,279	20.6%	$-13,908 (vs do-nothing $-18,050)
$1035	10d	24 Jul 2026	$28.20	5/5	$42,300	$41,741	77%	81%	+$15,418	-$0	0.0%	$6,042 (vs do-nothing +$1,900)
$990	3d	17 Jul 2026	$19.00	3/5	$57,000	$74,081	76%	82%	+$28,053	-$13,458	18.1%	$-10,978 (vs do-nothing $-15,120)
$1020	8d	22 Jul 2026	$21.50	5/5	$40,312	$39,753	76%	80%	+$9,630	-$6,179	8.3%	$-4,808 (vs do-nothing $-8,950)
$1030	10d	24 Jul 2026	$29.40	5/5	$44,100	$43,541	76%	81%	+$15,610	-$0	0.0%	$4,142 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$1000	6d	20 Jul 2026	$20.55	4/5	$41,100	$49,361	75%	81%	+$15,991	-$13,323	17.9%	$-11,398 (vs do-nothing $-15,540)
$1025	10d	24 Jul 2026	$30.75	5/5	$46,125	$45,566	75%	80%	+$15,947	-$0	0.0%	$2,317 (vs do-nothing $-1,825)
$1015	8d	22 Jul 2026	$22.65	5/5	$42,469	$41,910	75%	80%	+$9,735	-$8,104	10.9%	$-6,733 (vs do-nothing $-10,875)
$1022.50	10d	24 Jul 2026	$31.40	5/5	$47,100	$46,541	74%	80%	+$16,046	-$0	0.0%	$1,392 (vs do-nothing $-2,750)
$985	3d	17 Jul 2026	$20.25	2/5	$40,500	$66,401	74%	81%	+$18,963	-$9,722	13.1%	$-6,688 (vs do-nothing $-10,830)
$995	6d	20 Jul 2026	$19.55	4/5	$39,100	$47,361	74%	80%	+$11,756	-$15,723	21.2%	$-13,798 (vs do-nothing $-17,940)
$1020	10d	24 Jul 2026	$32.20	4/5	$38,640	$46,901	74%	80%	+$13,079	-$663	0.9%	$1,262 (vs do-nothing $-2,880)
$1010	8d	22 Jul 2026	$23.90	5/5	$44,812	$44,253	74%	79%	+$9,917	-$9,979	13.4%	$-8,608 (vs do-nothing $-12,750)
$1017.50	10d	24 Jul 2026	$32.80	4/5	$39,360	$47,621	73%	79%	+$13,064	-$1,423	1.9%	$502 (vs do-nothing $-3,640)
$1015	10d	24 Jul 2026	$33.55	4/5	$40,260	$48,521	73%	79%	+$13,212	-$2,123	2.9%	$-198 (vs do-nothing $-4,340)
$990	6d	20 Jul 2026	$21.55	4/5	$43,100	$51,361	72%	79%	+$13,355	-$16,923	22.8%	$-14,998 (vs do-nothing $-19,140)
$1005	8d	22 Jul 2026	$25.15	5/5	$47,156	$46,597	72%	78%	+$9,985	-$11,854	16.0%	$-10,483 (vs do-nothing $-14,625)
$980	3d	17 Jul 2026	$22.00	2/5	$44,000	$69,901	72%	80%	+$20,021	-$10,372	14.0%	$-7,338 (vs do-nothing $-11,480)
$1012.50	10d	24 Jul 2026	$34.25	4/5	$41,100	$49,361	72%	79%	+$13,282	-$2,843	3.8%	$-918 (vs do-nothing $-5,060)
$1010	10d	24 Jul 2026	$35.05	4/5	$42,060	$50,321	72%	78%	+$13,453	-$3,523	4.7%	$-1,598 (vs do-nothing $-5,740)
$1025	17d	31 Jul 2026	$43.40	5/5	$38,294	$37,735	71%	78%	+$9,563	-$0	0.0%	$8,642 (vs do-nothing +$4,500)
$1000	8d	22 Jul 2026	$29.10	4/5	$43,650	$51,911	71%	78%	+$11,996	-$9,903	13.3%	$-7,978 (vs do-nothing $-12,120)
$1007.50	10d	24 Jul 2026	$35.80	4/5	$42,960	$51,221	71%	78%	+$13,547	-$4,223	5.7%	$-2,298 (vs do-nothing $-6,440)
$1015	13d	27 Jul 2026	$35.45	5/5	$40,904	$40,345	71%	77%	+$8,104	-$1,704	2.3%	$-333 (vs do-nothing $-4,475)
$985	6d	20 Jul 2026	$22.90	4/5	$45,800	$54,061	71%	78%	+$13,480	-$18,383	24.7%	$-16,458 (vs do-nothing $-20,600)
$1005	10d	24 Jul 2026	$36.50	4/5	$43,800	$52,061	71%	78%	+$13,561	-$4,943	6.7%	$-3,018 (vs do-nothing $-7,160)
$1020	17d	31 Jul 2026	$45.35	5/5	$40,015	$39,456	71%	77%	+$10,072	-$0	0.0%	$7,117 (vs do-nothing +$2,975)
$975	3d	17 Jul 2026	$23.80	2/5	$47,600	$73,501	71%	79%	+$20,970	-$11,012	14.8%	$-7,978 (vs do-nothing $-12,120)
$1010	13d	27 Jul 2026	$36.35	5/5	$41,942	$41,383	70%	77%	+$7,577	-$3,754	5.1%	$-2,383 (vs do-nothing $-6,525)
$1002.50	10d	24 Jul 2026	$37.35	4/5	$44,820	$53,081	70%	78%	+$13,737	-$5,603	7.5%	$-3,678 (vs do-nothing $-7,820)
$995	8d	22 Jul 2026	$28.15	4/5	$42,225	$50,486	70%	77%	+$8,557	-$12,283	16.5%	$-10,358 (vs do-nothing $-14,500)
$1015	17d	31 Jul 2026	$46.45	5/5	$40,985	$40,426	70%	77%	+$9,789	-$0	0.0%	$5,167 (vs do-nothing +$1,025)
$1000	10d	24 Jul 2026	$38.15	4/5	$45,780	$54,041	70%	77%	+$13,834	-$6,283	8.5%	$-4,358 (vs do-nothing $-8,500)
$980	6d	20 Jul 2026	$24.85	4/5	$49,700	$57,961	69%	77%	+$14,624	-$19,603	26.4%	$-17,678 (vs do-nothing $-21,820)
$1005	13d	27 Jul 2026	$36.75	5/5	$42,404	$41,845	69%	76%	+$6,413	-$6,054	8.1%	$-4,683 (vs do-nothing $-8,825)
$990	8d	22 Jul 2026	$29.40	4/5	$44,100	$52,361	69%	76%	+$8,317	-$13,783	18.6%	$-11,858 (vs do-nothing $-16,000)
$1010	17d	31 Jul 2026	$49.05	5/5	$43,279	$42,720	69%	77%	+$10,786	-$0	0.0%	$3,967 (vs do-nothing $-175)
$970	3d	17 Jul 2026	$25.10	2/5	$50,200	$76,101	69%	78%	+$20,702	-$11,752	15.8%	$-8,718 (vs do-nothing $-12,860)
$995	10d	24 Jul 2026	$39.85	4/5	$47,820	$56,081	69%	77%	+$14,089	-$7,603	10.2%	$-5,678 (vs do-nothing $-9,820)
$1000	13d	27 Jul 2026	$40.00	5/5	$46,154	$45,595	68%	76%	+$8,475	-$6,929	9.3%	$-5,558 (vs do-nothing $-9,700)
$1005	17d	31 Jul 2026	$50.85	5/5	$44,868	$44,309	68%	76%	+$11,033	-$0	0.0%	$2,367 (vs do-nothing $-1,775)
$975	6d	20 Jul 2026	$25.95	3/5	$38,925	$56,006	68%	76%	+$10,409	-$15,873	21.4%	$-13,393 (vs do-nothing $-17,535)
$985	8d	22 Jul 2026	$31.05	4/5	$46,575	$54,836	68%	75%	+$8,573	-$15,123	20.4%	$-13,198 (vs do-nothing $-17,340)
$990	10d	24 Jul 2026	$41.15	4/5	$49,380	$57,641	67%	76%	+$13,785	-$9,083	12.2%	$-7,158 (vs do-nothing $-11,300)
$995	13d	27 Jul 2026	$39.65	5/5	$45,750	$45,191	67%	75%	+$6,321	-$9,604	12.9%	$-8,233 (vs do-nothing $-12,375)
$1000	17d	31 Jul 2026	$52.65	5/5	$46,456	$45,897	67%	76%	+$11,234	-$604	0.8%	$767 (vs do-nothing $-3,375)
$965	3d	17 Jul 2026	$26.95	2/5	$53,900	$79,801	67%	77%	+$21,314	-$12,382	16.7%	$-9,348 (vs do-nothing $-13,490)
$980	8d	22 Jul 2026	$32.75	4/5	$49,125	$57,386	66%	75%	+$8,798	-$16,443	22.1%	$-14,518 (vs do-nothing $-18,660)
$990	13d	27 Jul 2026	$41.40	4/5	$38,215	$46,476	66%	75%	+$5,221	-$8,983	12.1%	$-7,058 (vs do-nothing $-11,200)
$985	10d	24 Jul 2026	$42.20	4/5	$50,640	$58,901	66%	75%	+$13,101	-$10,663	14.4%	$-8,738 (vs do-nothing $-12,880)
$995	17d	31 Jul 2026	$54.35	4/5	$38,365	$46,626	66%	75%	+$9,040	-$1,803	2.4%	$122 (vs do-nothing $-4,020)
$970	6d	20 Jul 2026	$27.45	3/5	$41,175	$58,256	66%	75%	+$10,303	-$16,923	22.8%	$-14,443 (vs do-nothing $-18,585)
$985	13d	27 Jul 2026	$43.15	4/5	$39,831	$48,092	66%	75%	+$7,854	-$10,283	13.8%	$-8,358 (vs do-nothing $-12,500)
$990	17d	31 Jul 2026	$54.75	4/5	$38,647	$46,908	65%	75%	+$8,138	-$3,643	4.9%	$-1,718 (vs do-nothing $-5,860)
$980	10d	24 Jul 2026	$43.35	3/5	$39,015	$56,096	65%	75%	+$9,340	-$9,153	12.3%	$-6,673 (vs do-nothing $-10,815)
$975	8d	22 Jul 2026	$34.95	3/5	$39,319	$56,400	65%	74%	+$7,247	-$13,173	17.7%	$-10,693 (vs do-nothing $-14,835)
$980	13d	27 Jul 2026	$45.00	4/5	$41,538	$49,799	65%	74%	+$8,047	-$11,543	15.5%	$-9,618 (vs do-nothing $-13,760)
$960	3d	17 Jul 2026	$28.75	2/5	$57,500	$83,401	65%	76%	+$21,595	-$13,022	17.5%	$-9,988 (vs do-nothing $-14,130)
$985	17d	31 Jul 2026	$56.55	4/5	$39,918	$48,179	65%	74%	+$8,185	-$4,923	6.6%	$-2,998 (vs do-nothing $-7,140)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-14 03:38