FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $907.44

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1059.62 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $907.44 UNDERWATER $121.16 (11.8% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1059.62 (banked floor $1,040.78) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$76,858/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$630/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-78,325	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$38,429/mo

HEDGE COVER
$630/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$76,858/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1059.62 (probe: $1060C 13d) still earns $22,038/mo (29% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$68,549

was $78,325 · 12% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,000

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,059.62 → $1,040.78

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1075C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$6.00	$3,000	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 69 (live) · RSI 63 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 16 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,239.23 (+37%) · daily UBB $1,226.87 · 1-wk expected move ±$126 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $1059.62 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $1060 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1060)

80%

Touch odds

43%

Per cycle

$13,975

Income / mo

$27,950

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1085 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1085)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$5,050

Income / mo

$18,938

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $72.27/sh now → $51.13 mid-life (likely $46.12–$76.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$41.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 483 simulated challenges: the $1,085 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $1,122 (overshoots $36.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,085	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$2.02/sh	+$1,009 cycle +$6,059 [-$489…+$4,223] · 68% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,123	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$4.22/sh	+$2,108 cycle +$7,158 [-$1,399…+$4,885] · 64% credit	72% surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,088	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.97/sh	+$484 cycle +$5,534 [-$1,113…+$3,641] · 62% credit	68% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,133	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$1.45/sh	+$723 cycle +$5,773 [-$2,996…+$3,315] · 49% credit	73% surv 63%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,163	31 Jul 2026	11d left	-$8.89/sh	-$4,447 cycle +$603 [-$9,448…-$2,458] · 15% credit	76% surv 69%
budget: banked $5,050 debit $4,447 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$603 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $57,591/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1280 20 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1280)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$30

Income / mo

$225

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,280	22 Jul 2026	4d left	+$7.18/sh	+$3,592 cycle +$3,622	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,293	22 Jul 2026	4d left	+$1.26/sh	+$628 cycle +$658	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,413	31 Jul 2026	13d left	+$0.95/sh	+$473 cycle +$503	80% surv 75%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (146 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 146 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.046 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$79,588 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,995

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$985	4d	20 Jul 2026	$10.30	5/5	$38,625	$37,995	82%	85%	+$16,580	-$32,158	43.3%	$-30,895 (vs do-nothing $-26,900)
$980	4d	20 Jul 2026	$11.75	5/5	$44,062	$43,432	81%	84%	+$19,303	-$33,933	45.7%	$-32,670 (vs do-nothing $-28,675)
$1017.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$20.60	5/5	$38,625	$37,995	79%	83%	+$13,673	-$10,758	14.5%	$-9,495 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)
$975	4d	20 Jul 2026	$12.60	5/5	$47,250	$46,620	79%	83%	+$19,484	-$36,008	48.5%	$-34,745 (vs do-nothing $-30,750)
$1015	8d	24 Jul 2026	$20.75	5/5	$38,906	$38,276	79%	83%	+$13,111	-$11,933	16.1%	$-10,670 (vs do-nothing $-6,675)
$1012.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$21.65	5/5	$40,594	$39,963	78%	82%	+$13,929	-$12,733	17.1%	$-11,470 (vs do-nothing $-7,475)
$1010	8d	24 Jul 2026	$22.15	5/5	$41,531	$40,901	78%	82%	+$13,973	-$13,733	18.5%	$-12,470 (vs do-nothing $-8,475)
$970	4d	20 Jul 2026	$13.85	4/5	$41,550	$46,129	78%	82%	+$16,679	-$30,307	40.8%	$-30,095 (vs do-nothing $-26,100)
$1007.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$22.75	5/5	$42,656	$42,026	77%	82%	+$14,179	-$14,683	19.8%	$-13,420 (vs do-nothing $-9,425)
$990	6d	22 Jul 2026	$16.25	5/5	$40,625	$39,995	77%	81%	+$9,559	-$26,683	35.9%	$-25,420 (vs do-nothing $-21,425)
$1005	8d	24 Jul 2026	$22.95	5/5	$43,031	$42,401	77%	81%	+$13,609	-$15,833	21.3%	$-14,570 (vs do-nothing $-10,575)
$985	6d	22 Jul 2026	$17.40	5/5	$43,500	$42,870	76%	81%	+$12,243	-$28,608	38.5%	$-27,345 (vs do-nothing $-23,350)
$1002.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$23.90	5/5	$44,812	$44,182	76%	81%	+$14,419	-$16,608	22.4%	$-15,345 (vs do-nothing $-11,350)

Show 133 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 133.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$965	4d	20 Jul 2026	$15.10	4/5	$45,300	$49,879	76%	81%	+$17,501	-$31,807	42.8%	$-31,595 (vs do-nothing $-27,600)
$1000	8d	24 Jul 2026	$24.35	5/5	$45,656	$45,026	76%	81%	+$14,264	-$17,633	23.7%	$-16,370 (vs do-nothing $-12,375)
$980	6d	22 Jul 2026	$19.35	4/5	$38,700	$43,279	75%	80%	+$11,548	-$24,107	32.4%	$-23,895 (vs do-nothing $-19,900)
$995	8d	24 Jul 2026	$25.75	4/5	$38,625	$43,204	75%	80%	+$11,847	-$15,547	20.9%	$-15,335 (vs do-nothing $-11,340)
$960	4d	20 Jul 2026	$16.25	4/5	$48,750	$53,329	74%	80%	+$17,732	-$33,347	44.9%	$-33,135 (vs do-nothing $-29,140)
$990	8d	24 Jul 2026	$26.75	4/5	$40,125	$44,704	74%	79%	+$11,592	-$17,147	23.1%	$-16,935 (vs do-nothing $-12,940)
$975	6d	22 Jul 2026	$20.00	4/5	$40,000	$44,579	74%	79%	+$10,550	-$25,847	34.8%	$-25,635 (vs do-nothing $-21,640)
$1010	15d	31 Jul 2026	$39.30	5/5	$39,300	$38,670	73%	79%	+$10,248	-$5,158	6.9%	$-3,895 (vs do-nothing +$100)
$985	8d	24 Jul 2026	$28.40	4/5	$42,600	$47,179	73%	79%	+$12,217	-$18,487	24.9%	$-18,275 (vs do-nothing $-14,280)
$990	11d	27 Jul 2026	$28.70	5/5	$39,136	$38,506	73%	79%	+$8,719	-$20,458	27.5%	$-19,195 (vs do-nothing $-15,200)
$970	6d	22 Jul 2026	$21.60	4/5	$43,200	$47,779	72%	79%	+$11,296	-$27,207	36.6%	$-26,995 (vs do-nothing $-23,000)
$955	4d	20 Jul 2026	$17.70	3/5	$39,825	$49,613	72%	79%	+$13,916	-$26,075	35.1%	$-26,915 (vs do-nothing $-22,920)
$1005	15d	31 Jul 2026	$40.50	5/5	$40,500	$39,870	72%	78%	+$10,172	-$7,058	9.5%	$-5,795 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$995	13d	29 Jul 2026	$34.80	5/5	$40,154	$39,523	72%	78%	+$9,440	-$14,908	20.1%	$-13,645 (vs do-nothing $-9,650)
$985	11d	27 Jul 2026	$30.20	5/5	$41,182	$40,551	72%	78%	+$9,009	-$22,208	29.9%	$-20,945 (vs do-nothing $-16,950)
$980	8d	24 Jul 2026	$29.80	4/5	$44,700	$49,279	72%	78%	+$12,370	-$19,927	26.8%	$-19,715 (vs do-nothing $-15,720)
$1000	15d	31 Jul 2026	$42.50	5/5	$42,500	$41,870	71%	78%	+$10,849	-$8,558	11.5%	$-7,295 (vs do-nothing $-3,300)
$990	13d	29 Jul 2026	$35.75	5/5	$41,250	$40,620	71%	78%	+$9,010	-$16,933	22.8%	$-15,670 (vs do-nothing $-11,675)
$965	6d	22 Jul 2026	$23.20	4/5	$46,400	$50,979	71%	77%	+$9,989	-$28,567	38.4%	$-28,355 (vs do-nothing $-24,360)
$980	11d	27 Jul 2026	$31.75	5/5	$43,295	$42,665	71%	77%	+$9,282	-$23,933	32.2%	$-22,670 (vs do-nothing $-18,675)
$995	15d	31 Jul 2026	$43.40	5/5	$43,400	$42,770	71%	77%	+$10,377	-$10,608	14.3%	$-9,345 (vs do-nothing $-5,350)
$975	8d	24 Jul 2026	$31.30	4/5	$46,950	$51,529	71%	77%	+$12,572	-$21,327	28.7%	$-21,115 (vs do-nothing $-17,120)
$950	4d	20 Jul 2026	$19.20	3/5	$43,200	$52,988	71%	78%	+$14,399	-$27,125	36.5%	$-27,965 (vs do-nothing $-23,970)
$985	13d	29 Jul 2026	$37.30	5/5	$43,038	$42,408	70%	77%	+$9,208	-$18,658	25.1%	$-17,395 (vs do-nothing $-13,400)
$990	15d	31 Jul 2026	$45.15	5/5	$45,150	$44,520	70%	77%	+$10,706	-$12,233	16.5%	$-10,970 (vs do-nothing $-6,975)
$960	6d	22 Jul 2026	$24.75	4/5	$49,500	$54,079	70%	77%	+$12,191	-$29,947	40.3%	$-29,735 (vs do-nothing $-25,740)
$975	11d	27 Jul 2026	$33.35	5/5	$45,477	$44,847	70%	77%	+$9,537	-$25,633	34.5%	$-24,370 (vs do-nothing $-20,375)
$970	8d	24 Jul 2026	$32.65	4/5	$48,975	$53,554	69%	77%	+$12,446	-$22,787	30.7%	$-22,575 (vs do-nothing $-18,580)
$980	13d	29 Jul 2026	$38.95	5/5	$44,942	$44,312	69%	77%	+$9,456	-$20,333	27.4%	$-19,070 (vs do-nothing $-15,075)
$985	15d	31 Jul 2026	$46.50	5/5	$46,500	$45,870	69%	76%	+$10,583	-$14,058	18.9%	$-12,795 (vs do-nothing $-8,800)
$945	4d	20 Jul 2026	$20.35	3/5	$45,788	$55,575	69%	76%	+$13,835	-$28,280	38.1%	$-29,120 (vs do-nothing $-25,125)
$970	11d	27 Jul 2026	$35.00	5/5	$47,727	$47,097	68%	76%	+$9,770	-$27,308	36.8%	$-26,045 (vs do-nothing $-22,050)
$975	13d	29 Jul 2026	$40.55	5/5	$46,788	$46,158	68%	76%	+$9,578	-$22,033	29.7%	$-20,770 (vs do-nothing $-16,775)
$965	8d	24 Jul 2026	$34.20	3/5	$38,475	$48,263	68%	76%	+$9,385	-$18,125	24.4%	$-18,965 (vs do-nothing $-14,970)
$955	6d	22 Jul 2026	$26.40	3/5	$39,600	$49,388	68%	76%	+$9,395	-$23,465	31.6%	$-24,305 (vs do-nothing $-20,310)
$980	15d	31 Jul 2026	$48.10	4/5	$38,480	$43,059	68%	76%	+$8,527	-$12,607	17.0%	$-12,395 (vs do-nothing $-8,400)
$965	11d	27 Jul 2026	$36.70	4/5	$40,036	$44,615	67%	76%	+$7,985	-$23,167	31.2%	$-22,955 (vs do-nothing $-18,960)
$970	13d	29 Jul 2026	$42.30	4/5	$39,046	$43,625	67%	76%	+$7,844	-$18,927	25.5%	$-18,715 (vs do-nothing $-14,720)
$975	15d	31 Jul 2026	$49.55	4/5	$39,640	$44,219	67%	75%	+$8,425	-$14,027	18.9%	$-13,815 (vs do-nothing $-9,820)
$960	8d	24 Jul 2026	$35.90	3/5	$40,388	$50,175	67%	75%	+$9,522	-$19,115	25.7%	$-19,955 (vs do-nothing $-15,960)
$950	6d	22 Jul 2026	$27.40	3/5	$41,100	$50,888	67%	75%	+$8,537	-$24,665	33.2%	$-25,505 (vs do-nothing $-21,510)
$940	4d	20 Jul 2026	$22.25	3/5	$50,062	$59,850	66%	75%	+$14,687	-$29,210	39.3%	$-30,050 (vs do-nothing $-26,055)
$970	15d	31 Jul 2026	$51.55	4/5	$41,240	$45,819	66%	75%	+$8,721	-$15,227	20.5%	$-15,015 (vs do-nothing $-11,020)
$965	13d	29 Jul 2026	$44.05	4/5	$40,662	$45,240	66%	75%	+$7,968	-$20,227	27.2%	$-20,015 (vs do-nothing $-16,020)
$960	11d	27 Jul 2026	$38.50	4/5	$42,000	$46,579	66%	75%	+$8,187	-$24,447	32.9%	$-24,235 (vs do-nothing $-20,240)
$955	8d	24 Jul 2026	$38.00	3/5	$42,750	$52,538	66%	75%	+$10,025	-$19,985	26.9%	$-20,825 (vs do-nothing $-16,830)
$965	15d	31 Jul 2026	$52.50	4/5	$42,000	$46,579	65%	74%	+$8,132	-$16,847	22.7%	$-16,635 (vs do-nothing $-12,640)
$960	13d	29 Jul 2026	$45.85	4/5	$42,323	$46,902	65%	74%	+$8,081	-$21,507	28.9%	$-21,295 (vs do-nothing $-17,300)
$952.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$37.90	3/5	$42,638	$52,425	65%	74%	+$8,951	-$20,765	27.9%	$-21,605 (vs do-nothing $-17,610)
$955	11d	27 Jul 2026	$40.30	4/5	$43,964	$48,542	65%	74%	+$8,313	-$25,727	34.6%	$-25,515 (vs do-nothing $-21,520)
$945	6d	22 Jul 2026	$29.30	3/5	$43,950	$53,738	65%	74%	+$8,888	-$25,595	34.4%	$-26,435 (vs do-nothing $-22,440)
$960	15d	31 Jul 2026	$54.80	4/5	$43,840	$48,419	64%	74%	+$8,578	-$17,927	24.1%	$-17,715 (vs do-nothing $-13,720)
$950	8d	24 Jul 2026	$39.00	3/5	$43,875	$53,663	64%	74%	+$9,205	-$21,185	28.5%	$-22,025 (vs do-nothing $-18,030)
$935	4d	20 Jul 2026	$23.70	3/5	$53,325	$63,113	64%	74%	+$14,242	-$30,275	40.7%	$-31,115 (vs do-nothing $-27,120)
$955	13d	29 Jul 2026	$47.80	4/5	$44,123	$48,702	64%	74%	+$8,274	-$22,727	30.6%	$-22,515 (vs do-nothing $-18,520)
$950	11d	27 Jul 2026	$42.25	4/5	$46,091	$50,670	64%	74%	+$8,524	-$26,947	36.3%	$-26,735 (vs do-nothing $-22,740)
$947.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$39.40	3/5	$44,325	$54,113	64%	74%	+$8,650	-$21,815	29.4%	$-22,655 (vs do-nothing $-18,660)
$955	15d	31 Jul 2026	$56.80	4/5	$45,440	$50,019	64%	73%	+$8,739	-$19,127	25.7%	$-18,915 (vs do-nothing $-14,920)
$940	6d	22 Jul 2026	$31.25	3/5	$46,875	$56,663	63%	73%	+$7,966	-$26,510	35.7%	$-27,350 (vs do-nothing $-23,355)
$945	8d	24 Jul 2026	$41.45	3/5	$46,631	$56,419	63%	73%	+$9,929	-$21,950	29.5%	$-22,790 (vs do-nothing $-18,795)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-16 03:39