FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $876.15

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1059.21 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $876.15 UNDERWATER $152.45 (14.8% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1059.21 (banked floor $1,040.37) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$78,577/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$680/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-94,262	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$39,288/mo

HEDGE COVER
$680/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$78,577/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1059.21 (probe: $1060C 13d) still earns $15,865/mo (20% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$84,486

was $94,262 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,000

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,059.21 → $1,040.37

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1075C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$6.00	$3,000	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 66 (live) · RSI 63 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 10 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,239.43 (+41%) · daily UBB $1,229.80 · 1-wk expected move ±$124 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $1059.21 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $1060 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1060)

84%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$10,650

Income / mo

$21,300

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $99.48/sh now → $70.41 mid-life (likely $68.78–$103.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $21.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$49.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 786 simulated challenges: the $1,060 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 15, at $1,096 (overshoots $36.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,060	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$9.27/sh	+$4,636 cycle +$15,286 [+$1,660…+$7,508] · 90% credit	69% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,069	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$4.81/sh	+$2,405 cycle +$13,055 [-$966…+$5,025] · 65% credit	69% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,079	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.48/sh	+$741 cycle +$11,391 [-$2,807…+$3,138] · 47% credit	71% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,079	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.48/sh	+$741 cycle +$11,391 [-$2,807…+$3,138] · 47% credit	71% surv 57%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,134	7 Aug 2026	14d left	-$20.73/sh	-$10,367 cycle +$283 [-$16,527…-$9,494] · 4% credit	76% surv 68%
budget: banked $10,650 debit $10,367 (97% used ≈ 2.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$283 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $53,227/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1170 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1170)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$7,725

Income / mo

$10,534

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1280 20 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1280)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income / mo

$38

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,280	22 Jul 2026	4d left	+$5.17/sh	+$2,583 cycle +$2,588	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,289	22 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.41/sh	+$205 cycle +$210	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,449	7 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.18/sh	+$90 cycle +$95	81% surv 77%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (157 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 157 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.047 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$95,832 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,111

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$950	4d	20 Jul 2026	$10.85	5/5	$40,688	$40,008	81%	84%	+$17,006	-$49,180	66.2%	$-47,611 (vs do-nothing $-40,500)
$945	4d	20 Jul 2026	$11.85	5/5	$44,438	$43,758	80%	84%	+$17,787	-$51,180	68.9%	$-49,611 (vs do-nothing $-42,500)
$980	8d	24 Jul 2026	$21.25	5/5	$39,844	$39,164	79%	83%	+$16,341	-$28,980	39.0%	$-27,411 (vs do-nothing $-20,300)
$965	6d	22 Jul 2026	$15.95	5/5	$39,875	$39,195	79%	83%	+$12,753	-$39,130	52.7%	$-37,561 (vs do-nothing $-30,450)
$975	8d	24 Jul 2026	$22.45	5/5	$42,094	$41,414	78%	83%	+$16,908	-$30,880	41.6%	$-29,311 (vs do-nothing $-22,200)
$940	4d	20 Jul 2026	$12.95	5/5	$48,562	$47,883	78%	83%	+$18,630	-$53,130	71.5%	$-51,561 (vs do-nothing $-44,450)
$960	6d	22 Jul 2026	$16.45	5/5	$41,125	$40,445	78%	82%	+$11,706	-$41,380	55.7%	$-39,811 (vs do-nothing $-32,700)
$970	8d	24 Jul 2026	$23.65	5/5	$44,344	$43,664	77%	82%	+$17,374	-$32,780	44.1%	$-31,211 (vs do-nothing $-24,100)
$935	4d	20 Jul 2026	$14.15	4/5	$42,450	$45,002	77%	81%	+$15,612	-$44,024	59.3%	$-44,191 (vs do-nothing $-37,080)
$955	6d	22 Jul 2026	$18.25	5/5	$45,625	$44,945	77%	81%	+$13,750	-$42,980	57.8%	$-41,411 (vs do-nothing $-34,300)
$965	8d	24 Jul 2026	$24.50	5/5	$45,938	$45,258	76%	81%	+$17,081	-$34,855	46.9%	$-33,286 (vs do-nothing $-26,175)
$950	6d	22 Jul 2026	$19.70	4/5	$39,400	$41,952	75%	80%	+$11,802	-$35,804	48.2%	$-35,971 (vs do-nothing $-28,860)
$930	4d	20 Jul 2026	$15.55	4/5	$46,650	$49,202	75%	80%	+$16,635	-$45,464	61.2%	$-45,631 (vs do-nothing $-38,520)

Show 144 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 144.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$960	8d	24 Jul 2026	$26.25	4/5	$39,375	$41,927	75%	80%	+$12,588	-$29,184	39.3%	$-29,351 (vs do-nothing $-22,240)
$945	6d	22 Jul 2026	$20.15	4/5	$40,300	$42,852	74%	79%	+$10,466	-$37,624	50.6%	$-37,791 (vs do-nothing $-30,680)
$955	8d	24 Jul 2026	$28.00	4/5	$42,000	$44,552	73%	79%	+$13,414	-$30,484	41.0%	$-30,651 (vs do-nothing $-23,540)
$975	15d	31 Jul 2026	$39.50	5/5	$39,500	$38,820	73%	79%	+$12,528	-$22,355	30.1%	$-20,786 (vs do-nothing $-13,675)
$925	4d	20 Jul 2026	$16.25	4/5	$48,750	$51,302	73%	79%	+$15,254	-$47,184	63.5%	$-47,351 (vs do-nothing $-40,240)
$952.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$28.25	4/5	$42,375	$44,927	73%	79%	+$12,852	-$31,384	42.2%	$-31,551 (vs do-nothing $-24,440)
$940	6d	22 Jul 2026	$22.50	4/5	$45,000	$47,552	73%	79%	+$12,784	-$38,684	52.1%	$-38,851 (vs do-nothing $-31,740)
$955	11d	27 Jul 2026	$29.15	5/5	$39,750	$39,070	72%	79%	+$9,808	-$37,530	50.5%	$-35,961 (vs do-nothing $-28,850)
$970	15d	31 Jul 2026	$41.30	5/5	$41,300	$40,620	72%	79%	+$13,089	-$23,955	32.2%	$-22,386 (vs do-nothing $-15,275)
$950	8d	24 Jul 2026	$29.35	4/5	$44,025	$46,577	72%	79%	+$13,540	-$31,944	43.0%	$-32,111 (vs do-nothing $-25,000)
$960	13d	29 Jul 2026	$34.55	5/5	$39,865	$39,186	72%	78%	+$9,998	-$32,330	43.5%	$-30,761 (vs do-nothing $-23,650)
$947.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$29.90	4/5	$44,850	$47,402	72%	78%	+$13,378	-$32,724	44.0%	$-32,891 (vs do-nothing $-25,780)
$965	15d	31 Jul 2026	$41.65	5/5	$41,650	$40,970	72%	79%	+$12,153	-$26,280	35.4%	$-24,711 (vs do-nothing $-17,600)
$950	11d	27 Jul 2026	$30.95	5/5	$42,205	$41,525	71%	78%	+$10,448	-$39,130	52.7%	$-37,561 (vs do-nothing $-30,450)
$935	6d	22 Jul 2026	$23.65	4/5	$47,300	$49,852	71%	78%	+$12,552	-$40,224	54.1%	$-40,391 (vs do-nothing $-33,280)
$945	8d	24 Jul 2026	$30.70	4/5	$46,050	$48,602	71%	78%	+$13,564	-$33,404	45.0%	$-33,571 (vs do-nothing $-26,460)
$920	4d	20 Jul 2026	$18.45	3/5	$41,512	$47,296	71%	78%	+$13,539	-$36,228	48.8%	$-38,131 (vs do-nothing $-31,020)
$955	13d	29 Jul 2026	$36.15	5/5	$41,712	$41,032	71%	78%	+$10,282	-$34,030	45.8%	$-32,461 (vs do-nothing $-25,350)
$960	15d	31 Jul 2026	$43.75	5/5	$43,750	$43,070	71%	78%	+$12,920	-$27,730	37.3%	$-26,161 (vs do-nothing $-19,050)
$942.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$31.45	4/5	$47,175	$49,727	71%	78%	+$13,649	-$34,104	45.9%	$-34,271 (vs do-nothing $-27,160)
$945	11d	27 Jul 2026	$32.35	5/5	$44,114	$43,434	70%	77%	+$10,453	-$40,930	55.1%	$-39,361 (vs do-nothing $-32,250)
$940	8d	24 Jul 2026	$31.35	4/5	$47,025	$49,577	70%	77%	+$12,432	-$35,144	47.3%	$-35,311 (vs do-nothing $-28,200)
$950	13d	29 Jul 2026	$37.80	5/5	$43,615	$42,936	70%	77%	+$10,554	-$35,705	48.1%	$-34,136 (vs do-nothing $-27,025)
$930	6d	22 Jul 2026	$25.50	4/5	$51,000	$53,552	70%	77%	+$13,564	-$41,484	55.8%	$-41,651 (vs do-nothing $-34,540)
$955	15d	31 Jul 2026	$45.45	5/5	$45,450	$44,770	70%	77%	+$13,237	-$29,380	39.5%	$-27,811 (vs do-nothing $-20,700)
$937.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$33.00	4/5	$49,500	$52,052	69%	77%	+$13,813	-$35,484	47.8%	$-35,651 (vs do-nothing $-28,540)
$952.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$46.45	5/5	$46,450	$45,770	69%	77%	+$13,527	-$30,130	40.6%	$-28,561 (vs do-nothing $-21,450)
$940	11d	27 Jul 2026	$34.70	5/5	$47,318	$46,638	69%	77%	+$11,661	-$42,255	56.9%	$-40,686 (vs do-nothing $-33,575)
$915	4d	20 Jul 2026	$20.05	3/5	$45,112	$50,896	69%	77%	+$14,034	-$37,248	50.1%	$-39,151 (vs do-nothing $-32,040)
$945	13d	29 Jul 2026	$39.45	5/5	$45,519	$44,840	69%	77%	+$10,757	-$37,380	50.3%	$-35,811 (vs do-nothing $-28,700)
$950	15d	31 Jul 2026	$47.05	5/5	$47,050	$46,370	69%	77%	+$13,404	-$31,080	41.8%	$-29,511 (vs do-nothing $-22,400)
$935	8d	24 Jul 2026	$33.75	4/5	$50,625	$53,177	69%	77%	+$13,816	-$36,184	48.7%	$-36,351 (vs do-nothing $-29,240)
$947.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$47.10	5/5	$47,100	$46,420	69%	77%	+$12,718	-$32,305	43.5%	$-30,736 (vs do-nothing $-23,625)
$925	6d	22 Jul 2026	$27.00	3/5	$40,500	$46,284	68%	76%	+$10,285	-$32,163	43.3%	$-34,066 (vs do-nothing $-26,955)
$932.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$34.50	4/5	$51,750	$54,302	68%	76%	+$13,791	-$36,884	49.6%	$-37,051 (vs do-nothing $-29,940)
$945	15d	31 Jul 2026	$47.95	5/5	$47,950	$47,270	68%	77%	+$12,819	-$33,130	44.6%	$-31,561 (vs do-nothing $-24,450)
$935	11d	27 Jul 2026	$35.75	5/5	$48,750	$48,070	68%	76%	+$11,002	-$44,230	59.5%	$-42,661 (vs do-nothing $-35,550)
$940	13d	29 Jul 2026	$41.20	5/5	$47,538	$46,859	68%	76%	+$11,003	-$39,005	52.5%	$-37,436 (vs do-nothing $-30,325)
$930	8d	24 Jul 2026	$35.15	3/5	$39,544	$45,328	68%	76%	+$10,191	-$28,218	38.0%	$-30,121 (vs do-nothing $-23,010)
$950	22d	7 Aug 2026	$58.55	5/5	$39,920	$39,241	67%	76%	+$8,586	-$25,330	34.1%	$-23,761 (vs do-nothing $-16,650)
$940	15d	31 Jul 2026	$49.65	4/5	$39,720	$42,272	67%	76%	+$10,386	-$27,824	37.4%	$-27,991 (vs do-nothing $-20,880)
$910	4d	20 Jul 2026	$21.70	3/5	$48,825	$54,609	67%	76%	+$14,375	-$38,253	51.5%	$-40,156 (vs do-nothing $-33,045)
$920	6d	22 Jul 2026	$28.65	3/5	$42,975	$48,759	67%	75%	+$10,497	-$33,168	44.6%	$-35,071 (vs do-nothing $-27,960)
$935	13d	29 Jul 2026	$43.00	4/5	$39,692	$42,244	67%	76%	+$8,987	-$32,484	43.7%	$-32,651 (vs do-nothing $-25,540)
$930	11d	27 Jul 2026	$37.60	4/5	$41,018	$43,570	67%	76%	+$9,069	-$36,644	49.3%	$-36,811 (vs do-nothing $-29,700)
$945	22d	7 Aug 2026	$60.40	5/5	$41,182	$40,502	67%	75%	+$8,765	-$26,905	36.2%	$-25,336 (vs do-nothing $-18,225)
$925	8d	24 Jul 2026	$35.70	3/5	$40,162	$45,946	66%	75%	+$8,979	-$29,553	39.8%	$-31,456 (vs do-nothing $-24,345)
$935	15d	31 Jul 2026	$51.40	4/5	$41,120	$43,672	66%	76%	+$10,513	-$29,124	39.2%	$-29,291 (vs do-nothing $-22,180)
$930	13d	29 Jul 2026	$44.85	4/5	$41,400	$43,952	66%	75%	+$9,158	-$33,744	45.4%	$-33,911 (vs do-nothing $-26,800)
$940	22d	7 Aug 2026	$62.20	5/5	$42,409	$41,729	66%	75%	+$8,879	-$28,505	38.4%	$-26,936 (vs do-nothing $-19,825)
$925	11d	27 Jul 2026	$39.50	4/5	$43,091	$45,643	66%	75%	+$9,312	-$37,884	51.0%	$-38,051 (vs do-nothing $-30,940)
$915	6d	22 Jul 2026	$29.05	3/5	$43,575	$49,359	65%	75%	+$8,704	-$34,548	46.5%	$-36,451 (vs do-nothing $-29,340)
$930	15d	31 Jul 2026	$53.80	4/5	$43,040	$45,592	65%	75%	+$11,117	-$30,164	40.6%	$-30,331 (vs do-nothing $-23,220)
$920	8d	24 Jul 2026	$39.00	3/5	$43,875	$49,659	65%	75%	+$10,772	-$30,063	40.5%	$-31,966 (vs do-nothing $-24,855)
$935	22d	7 Aug 2026	$64.15	5/5	$43,739	$43,059	65%	75%	+$9,064	-$30,030	40.4%	$-28,461 (vs do-nothing $-21,350)
$905	4d	20 Jul 2026	$21.85	3/5	$49,162	$54,946	65%	74%	+$11,062	-$39,708	53.4%	$-41,611 (vs do-nothing $-34,500)
$925	13d	29 Jul 2026	$46.75	4/5	$43,154	$45,706	65%	75%	+$9,314	-$34,984	47.1%	$-35,151 (vs do-nothing $-28,040)
$920	11d	27 Jul 2026	$41.45	4/5	$45,218	$47,770	65%	74%	+$9,528	-$39,104	52.6%	$-39,271 (vs do-nothing $-32,160)
$925	15d	31 Jul 2026	$56.00	4/5	$44,800	$47,352	64%	75%	+$11,516	-$31,284	42.1%	$-31,451 (vs do-nothing $-24,340)
$930	22d	7 Aug 2026	$66.10	5/5	$45,068	$44,388	64%	74%	+$9,218	-$31,555	42.5%	$-29,986 (vs do-nothing $-22,875)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-16 21:38