FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $843.73

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1050.20 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $843.73 UNDERWATER $184.87 (18.0% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1050.20 (banked floor $1,031.41) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$75,214/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$662/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-106,703	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$37,607/mo

HEDGE COVER
$662/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$75,214/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $419,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1050.20 (probe: $1050C 14d) brings only $15,000/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$96,926

was $106,703 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,000

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,050.20 → $1,031.41

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1075C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$6.00	$3,000	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 9 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,233.06 (+46%) · daily UBB $1,239.29 · 1-wk expected move ±$116 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $940 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($37,607/mo); it brings $38,143/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $880/7d for $75,857/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $1270/7d (99+% survival, $857/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $46,200 (62% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-107,065 and cuts bleed by $662/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $940, 80% survival, $38,143/mo (E[net] $9,508/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 7d	5 × $940	80%	$38,143	$9,508

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $9,508/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $940 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $38,143/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $975 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 20% → 13%) for $12,964/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $843.73 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

4 × $1270

24 Jul

50.5%

99+%

-3pp

$200

$857

-$37,286

Sell 4 × $1270 50.5% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.57 mid)

= $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1270)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1270.58)

99+%

EV / mo

+$769

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

74% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,228/mo

median; plan ~$1,515/mo after 68% keep · $3,466 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-2.1], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$22,897

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,386 @ 78% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $81.63/sh now → $57.74 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$57.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,270	27 Jul 2026	6d left	-$4.77/sh	-$1,906 cycle -$1,706	68% surv 52%	+$92,777 SAFE cap gain +$199,480
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,386	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.17/sh	+$66 cycle +$266	78% surv 71%	+$144,339 SAFE cap gain +$251,041

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$857/mo
vs 50% target ($37,607/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($75,214/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,460/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1050.20: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-85,392

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,270.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,257-1,270.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,270.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,270.00 (3.7σ)	$200	$94,684	+$201,386	+$93,180
+2.5%	$1,301.75 (3.9σ)	$-12,500	$95,525	+$202,227	+$93,180
+5%	$1,333.50 (4.2σ)	$-25,200	$96,366	+$203,069	+$93,180

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-106,703

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$108,707

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $1270): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1030): -$1,265

Total Position P&L @ SS: $739 (+$107,442 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,321 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,060, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $1000

24 Jul

18.5%

90%

20%

+0pp

$4,325

$18,536

-$19,607

$20,775

Sell 5 × $1000 18.5% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $9.00 mid)

= $4,325 credit for the 7d cycle → $18,536/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1000)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1009.00)

91%

EV / mo

+$10,807

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

78% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$12,971/mo

median; plan ~$8,820/mo after 68% keep · $19,562 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$18,408

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,166 @ 82% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $64.27/sh now → $45.47 mid-life (likely $41.59–$71.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$36.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 442 simulated challenges: the $1,000 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,032 (overshoots $31.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,061	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.68/sh	+$5,338 cycle +$9,663 [+$803…+$8,378] · 78% credit	74% surv 65%	+$17,495 SAFE cap gain +$124,197
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,000	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.24/sh	+$1,622 cycle +$5,947 [-$155…+$4,096] · 74% credit	68% surv 52%	-$18,479 NOT cap gain +$88,223
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,006	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.25/sh	+$123 cycle +$4,448 [-$1,938…+$2,482] · 52% credit	69% surv 54%	-$16,677 NOT cap gain +$90,026
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,131	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.37/sh	+$185 cycle +$4,510 [-$6,376…+$2,833] · 41% credit	80% surv 74%	+$49,197 SAFE cap gain +$155,899
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,166	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$7.60/sh	-$3,798 cycle +$527 [-$11,228…-$1,403] · 20% credit	82% surv 79%	+$63,642 SAFE cap gain +$170,345
budget: banked $4,325 debit $3,798 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$527 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $23,670/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$18,536/mo
vs 50% target ($37,607/mo)	-51%
vs normal income ($75,214/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,874/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1000 is $50 below CC-SS $1050.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,775
… as % of IC ($74,300)	28.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	5.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-106,878

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.16/sh (~25% of the $8.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,009.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,000)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $990.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $990-1,009.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,009.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,000.00 (1.3σ)	$4,325	$-20,101	+$86,601	+$550
+2.5%	$1,025.00 (1.6σ)	$-8,175	$-19,439	+$87,264	-$11,950
+5%	$1,050.00 (1.8σ)	$-20,675	$-18,776	+$87,926	-$14,450

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-106,703

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$108,707

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1000): -$20,775

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,771 (+$87,931 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,321 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,450, the opportunity cost of earning $18,536/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $975

24 Jul

15.6%

87%

27%

+1pp

$5,875

$25,179

-$12,964

$31,725

Sell 5 × $975 15.6% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.25 mid)

= $5,875 credit for the 7d cycle → $25,179/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $975)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $987.25)

89%

EV / mo

+$13,292

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

75% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$15,675/mo

median; plan ~$10,659/mo after 68% keep · $27,961 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$16,290

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,161 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $62.67/sh now → $44.33 mid-life (likely $42.34–$72.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 627 simulated challenges: the $975 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,006 (overshoots $31.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,036	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.88/sh	+$5,439 cycle +$11,314 [-$28…+$7,508] · 75% credit	74% surv 66%	+$5,984 SAFE cap gain +$112,686
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$975	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.79/sh	+$1,897 cycle +$7,772 [-$299…+$3,965] · 70% credit	68% surv 52%	-$29,817 NOT cap gain +$76,886
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$981	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.80/sh	+$401 cycle +$6,276 [-$2,273…+$2,269] · 46% credit	69% surv 55%	-$28,012 NOT cap gain +$78,690
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,111	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.09/sh	+$43 cycle +$5,918 [-$7,468…+$1,628] · 34% credit	80% surv 75%	+$40,075 SAFE cap gain +$146,778
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,161	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$11.12/sh	-$5,558 cycle +$317 [-$14,388…-$4,434] · 12% credit	84% surv 81%	+$60,799 SAFE cap gain +$167,501
budget: banked $5,875 debit $5,558 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$317 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $20,758/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$25,179/mo
vs 50% target ($37,607/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($75,214/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$24,517/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $975 is $75 below CC-SS $1050.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,725
… as % of IC ($74,300)	42.7%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	7.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-106,953

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.94/sh (~25% of the $11.75 collected) or spot ≥ $987.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $975)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $965.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $965-987.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $987.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$975.00 (1.1σ)	$5,875	$-31,714	+$74,989	+$2,100
+2.5%	$999.37 (1.3σ)	$-6,312	$-31,068	+$75,635	-$10,087
+5%	$1,023.75 (1.5σ)	$-18,500	$-30,422	+$76,280	-$22,275
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.6σ)	$-20,925	$-30,293	+$76,409	-$24,700

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-106,703

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$108,707

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $975): -$31,725

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,721 (+$76,981 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,321 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,400, the opportunity cost of earning $25,179/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $940

24 Jul

11.4%

80%

31%

+4pp

$8,900

$38,143

—

$46,200

Sell 5 × $940 11.4% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.52 mid)

= $8,900 credit for the 7d cycle → $38,143/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $940)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $958.52)

84%

EV / mo

+$16,753

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

77% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$23,371/mo

median; plan ~$15,892/mo after 68% keep · $35,586 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$12,469

Free roll-up

+$26/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,161 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Buyback gross: $60.42/sh now → $42.74 mid-life (likely $45.25–$72.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 938 simulated challenges: the $940 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $970 (overshoots $29.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,001	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$11.08/sh	+$5,540 cycle +$14,440 [-$543…+$6,008] · 73% credit	74% surv 66%	-$9,318 NOT cap gain +$97,385
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$940	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.51/sh	+$2,255 cycle +$11,155 [-$338…+$2,907] · 69% credit	68% surv 52%	-$44,861 NOT cap gain +$61,842
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$951	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$8,902 [-$3,054…+$464] · 30% credit	70% surv 56%	-$41,181 NOT cap gain +$65,521
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,076	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.34/sh	+$169 cycle +$9,069 [-$7,972…+$224] · 25% credit	81% surv 76%	+$24,799 SAFE cap gain +$131,501
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,161	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$17.45/sh	-$8,725 cycle +$175 [-$19,231…-$9,422] · 3% credit	87% surv 85%	+$60,657 SAFE cap gain +$167,360
budget: banked $8,900 debit $8,725 (98% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$175 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $15,805/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$38,143/mo
vs 50% target ($37,607/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($75,214/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$37,481/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $940 is $110 below CC-SS $1050.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$46,200
… as % of IC ($74,300)	62.2%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	11.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-107,065

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.45/sh (~25% of the $17.80 collected) or spot ≥ $958.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $940)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $930.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $931-958.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $958.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$940.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,900	$-47,116	+$59,586	+$5,125
+2.5%	$963.50 (1.0σ)	$-2,850	$-46,494	+$60,209	-$6,625
+5%	$987.00 (1.2σ)	$-14,600	$-45,871	+$60,832	-$18,375
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.6σ)	$-35,400	$-44,768	+$61,934	-$39,175

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-106,703

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$108,707

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $940): -$46,200

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,196 (+$62,506 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,321 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,875, the opportunity cost of earning $38,143/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $880

24 Jul

4.3%

64%

75%

+9pp

$17,700

$75,857

+$37,714

$67,400

Sell 5 × $880 4.3% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $36.65 mid)

= $17,700 credit for the 7d cycle → $75,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $880)

64%

Breach risk

36%

POP (stays ≤ $916.65)

75%

EV / mo

+$22,100

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

84% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$38,204/mo

median; plan ~$25,979/mo after 68% keep · $35,468 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

59%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,305

Free roll-up

+$26/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,161 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $56.56/sh now → $40.01 mid-life (likely $52.41–$74.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $35.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,761 simulated challenges: the $880 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $909 (overshoots $29.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$880	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.59/sh	+$2,795 cycle +$20,495 [-$627…+$1,577] · 61% credit	68% surv 52%	-$67,111 NOT cap gain +$39,591
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$941	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$11.20/sh	+$5,602 cycle +$23,302 [-$1,730…+$2,915] · 60% credit	75% surv 66%	-$32,046 NOT cap gain +$74,657
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$891	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.07/sh	+$537 cycle +$18,237 [-$3,288…-$927] · 17% credit	70% surv 57%	-$63,436 NOT cap gain +$43,267
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,016	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.55/sh	+$273 cycle +$17,973 [-$9,486…-$3,293] · 12% credit	81% surv 76%	+$2,112 SAFE cap gain +$108,815
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,161	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$23.72/sh	-$11,860 cycle +$5,840 [-$25,488…-$16,714]	90% surv 89%	+$66,322 SAFE cap gain +$173,025
budget: banked $17,700 debit $11,860 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,840 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $10,181/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$75,857/mo
vs 50% target ($37,607/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($75,214/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$75,195/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $880 is $170 below CC-SS $1050.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$67,400
… as % of IC ($74,300)	90.7%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	16.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-107,328

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.85/sh (~25% of the $35.40 collected) or spot ≥ $916.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $880)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $871.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $871-916.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $916.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$880.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$17,700	$-69,906	+$36,796	+$13,925
+2.5%	$902.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,700	$-69,323	+$37,379	+$2,925
+5%	$924.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-4,300	$-68,740	+$37,962	-$8,075
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.6σ)	$-56,600	$-65,968	+$40,734	-$60,375

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-106,703

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$108,707

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $880): -$67,400

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-65,396 (+$41,306 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,321 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,075, the opportunity cost of earning $75,857/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (140 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 140 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.053 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$108,707 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,321

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$925	5d	22 Jul 2026	$13.35	5/5	$40,050	$39,388	81%	85%	+$18,947	-$55,925	75.3%	$-53,921 (vs do-nothing $-49,600)
$940	7d	24 Jul 2026	$17.80	5/5	$38,143	$37,481	80%	84%	+$16,753	-$46,200	62.2%	$-44,196 (vs do-nothing $-39,875)
$920	5d	22 Jul 2026	$14.55	5/5	$43,650	$42,988	80%	84%	+$20,163	-$57,825	77.8%	$-55,821 (vs do-nothing $-51,500)
$937.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.45	5/5	$39,536	$38,874	80%	84%	+$17,252	-$47,125	63.4%	$-45,121 (vs do-nothing $-40,800)
$935	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.05	5/5	$40,821	$40,160	79%	83%	+$17,612	-$48,075	64.7%	$-46,071 (vs do-nothing $-41,750)
$932.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.55	5/5	$41,893	$41,231	79%	83%	+$17,722	-$49,075	66.1%	$-47,071 (vs do-nothing $-42,750)
$915	5d	22 Jul 2026	$15.80	4/5	$37,920	$39,523	79%	83%	+$17,038	-$47,760	64.3%	$-47,021 (vs do-nothing $-42,700)
$930	7d	24 Jul 2026	$20.25	5/5	$43,393	$42,731	78%	83%	+$18,227	-$49,975	67.3%	$-47,971 (vs do-nothing $-43,650)
$910	5d	22 Jul 2026	$17.05	4/5	$40,920	$42,523	77%	82%	+$17,747	-$49,260	66.3%	$-48,521 (vs do-nothing $-44,200)
$925	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.40	5/5	$45,857	$45,195	77%	82%	+$18,591	-$51,900	69.9%	$-49,896 (vs do-nothing $-45,575)
$920	7d	24 Jul 2026	$22.85	4/5	$39,171	$40,775	76%	81%	+$15,558	-$42,940	57.8%	$-42,201 (vs do-nothing $-37,880)
$905	5d	22 Jul 2026	$18.35	4/5	$44,040	$45,643	76%	81%	+$18,366	-$50,740	68.3%	$-50,001 (vs do-nothing $-45,680)
$935	12d	29 Jul 2026	$30.50	5/5	$38,125	$37,463	75%	80%	+$12,623	-$42,350	57.0%	$-40,346 (vs do-nothing $-36,025)

Show 127 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 127.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$915	7d	24 Jul 2026	$24.30	4/5	$41,657	$43,260	74%	80%	+$16,116	-$44,360	59.7%	$-43,621 (vs do-nothing $-39,300)
$900	5d	22 Jul 2026	$19.80	4/5	$47,520	$49,123	74%	80%	+$19,122	-$52,160	70.2%	$-51,421 (vs do-nothing $-47,100)
$930	12d	29 Jul 2026	$30.15	5/5	$37,688	$37,026	74%	80%	+$10,730	-$45,025	60.6%	$-43,021 (vs do-nothing $-38,700)
$920	10d	27 Jul 2026	$25.15	5/5	$37,725	$37,063	74%	79%	+$10,260	-$52,525	70.7%	$-50,521 (vs do-nothing $-46,200)
$910	7d	24 Jul 2026	$25.70	4/5	$44,057	$45,660	73%	79%	+$16,458	-$45,800	61.6%	$-45,061 (vs do-nothing $-40,740)
$935	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.15	5/5	$38,732	$38,070	73%	79%	+$11,246	-$39,525	53.2%	$-37,521 (vs do-nothing $-33,200)
$925	12d	29 Jul 2026	$31.60	5/5	$39,500	$38,838	73%	79%	+$11,019	-$46,800	63.0%	$-44,796 (vs do-nothing $-40,475)
$915	10d	27 Jul 2026	$26.70	5/5	$40,050	$39,388	72%	79%	+$10,734	-$54,250	73.0%	$-52,246 (vs do-nothing $-47,925)
$895	5d	22 Jul 2026	$21.30	3/5	$38,340	$42,208	72%	79%	+$14,823	-$40,170	54.1%	$-40,696 (vs do-nothing $-36,375)
$930	14d	31 Jul 2026	$37.65	5/5	$40,339	$39,677	72%	79%	+$11,463	-$41,275	55.6%	$-39,271 (vs do-nothing $-34,950)
$905	7d	24 Jul 2026	$27.25	4/5	$46,714	$48,317	72%	79%	+$16,918	-$47,180	63.5%	$-46,441 (vs do-nothing $-42,120)
$920	12d	29 Jul 2026	$33.70	5/5	$42,125	$41,463	72%	78%	+$12,051	-$48,250	64.9%	$-46,246 (vs do-nothing $-41,925)
$910	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.50	5/5	$44,250	$43,588	71%	78%	+$12,979	-$55,350	74.5%	$-53,346 (vs do-nothing $-49,025)
$925	14d	31 Jul 2026	$38.80	5/5	$41,571	$40,910	71%	78%	+$11,247	-$43,200	58.1%	$-41,196 (vs do-nothing $-36,875)
$915	12d	29 Jul 2026	$34.95	5/5	$43,688	$43,026	71%	78%	+$11,949	-$50,125	67.5%	$-48,121 (vs do-nothing $-43,800)
$890	5d	22 Jul 2026	$22.85	3/5	$41,130	$44,998	71%	78%	+$15,210	-$41,205	55.5%	$-41,731 (vs do-nothing $-37,410)
$900	7d	24 Jul 2026	$28.85	4/5	$49,457	$51,060	70%	78%	+$17,323	-$48,540	65.3%	$-47,801 (vs do-nothing $-43,480)
$920	14d	31 Jul 2026	$40.35	5/5	$43,232	$42,570	70%	77%	+$11,400	-$44,925	60.5%	$-42,921 (vs do-nothing $-38,600)
$905	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.75	5/5	$44,625	$43,963	70%	77%	+$11,293	-$57,725	77.7%	$-55,721 (vs do-nothing $-51,400)
$910	12d	29 Jul 2026	$36.80	5/5	$46,000	$45,338	69%	77%	+$12,522	-$51,700	69.6%	$-49,696 (vs do-nothing $-45,375)
$915	14d	31 Jul 2026	$41.70	5/5	$44,679	$44,017	69%	77%	+$11,279	-$46,750	62.9%	$-44,746 (vs do-nothing $-40,425)
$895	7d	24 Jul 2026	$30.50	3/5	$39,214	$43,082	69%	77%	+$13,249	-$37,410	50.4%	$-37,936 (vs do-nothing $-33,615)
$900	10d	27 Jul 2026	$31.30	5/5	$46,950	$46,288	69%	76%	+$11,446	-$59,450	80.0%	$-57,446 (vs do-nothing $-53,125)
$885	5d	22 Jul 2026	$24.60	3/5	$44,280	$48,148	69%	77%	+$15,765	-$42,180	56.8%	$-42,706 (vs do-nothing $-38,385)
$905	12d	29 Jul 2026	$37.10	5/5	$46,375	$45,713	68%	77%	+$11,082	-$54,050	72.7%	$-52,046 (vs do-nothing $-47,725)
$910	14d	31 Jul 2026	$43.65	5/5	$46,768	$46,106	68%	76%	+$11,739	-$48,275	65.0%	$-46,271 (vs do-nothing $-41,950)
$915	21d	7 Aug 2026	$53.60	5/5	$38,286	$37,624	68%	76%	+$9,382	-$40,800	54.9%	$-38,796 (vs do-nothing $-34,475)
$890	7d	24 Jul 2026	$32.10	3/5	$41,271	$45,140	68%	76%	+$13,328	-$38,430	51.7%	$-38,956 (vs do-nothing $-34,635)
$895	10d	27 Jul 2026	$32.95	4/5	$39,540	$41,143	67%	76%	+$9,308	-$48,900	65.8%	$-48,161 (vs do-nothing $-43,840)
$900	12d	29 Jul 2026	$41.00	4/5	$41,000	$42,603	67%	76%	+$11,251	-$43,680	58.8%	$-42,941 (vs do-nothing $-38,620)
$905	14d	31 Jul 2026	$45.50	4/5	$39,000	$40,603	67%	76%	+$9,624	-$39,880	53.7%	$-39,141 (vs do-nothing $-34,820)
$910	21d	7 Aug 2026	$55.35	5/5	$39,536	$38,874	67%	76%	+$9,482	-$42,425	57.1%	$-40,421 (vs do-nothing $-36,100)
$880	5d	22 Jul 2026	$26.30	3/5	$47,340	$51,208	67%	76%	+$16,030	-$43,170	58.1%	$-43,696 (vs do-nothing $-39,375)
$900	14d	31 Jul 2026	$48.40	4/5	$41,486	$43,089	66%	75%	+$10,704	-$40,720	54.8%	$-39,981 (vs do-nothing $-35,660)
$890	10d	27 Jul 2026	$34.65	4/5	$41,580	$43,183	66%	75%	+$9,425	-$50,220	67.6%	$-49,481 (vs do-nothing $-45,160)
$895	12d	29 Jul 2026	$42.00	4/5	$42,000	$43,603	66%	75%	+$10,673	-$45,280	60.9%	$-44,541 (vs do-nothing $-40,220)
$905	21d	7 Aug 2026	$56.45	5/5	$40,321	$39,660	66%	75%	+$9,081	-$44,375	59.7%	$-42,371 (vs do-nothing $-38,050)
$885	7d	24 Jul 2026	$33.50	3/5	$43,071	$46,940	66%	76%	+$13,032	-$39,510	53.2%	$-40,036 (vs do-nothing $-35,715)
$895	14d	31 Jul 2026	$48.10	4/5	$41,229	$42,832	65%	75%	+$8,990	-$42,840	57.7%	$-42,101 (vs do-nothing $-37,780)
$900	21d	7 Aug 2026	$59.35	5/5	$42,393	$41,731	65%	75%	+$9,928	-$45,425	61.1%	$-43,421 (vs do-nothing $-39,100)
$890	12d	29 Jul 2026	$43.05	4/5	$43,050	$44,653	65%	75%	+$10,079	-$46,860	63.1%	$-46,121 (vs do-nothing $-41,800)
$875	5d	22 Jul 2026	$27.45	3/5	$49,410	$53,278	65%	75%	+$15,097	-$44,325	59.7%	$-44,851 (vs do-nothing $-40,530)
$885	10d	27 Jul 2026	$36.75	4/5	$44,100	$45,703	65%	75%	+$9,926	-$51,380	69.2%	$-50,641 (vs do-nothing $-46,320)
$880	7d	24 Jul 2026	$35.40	3/5	$45,514	$49,382	64%	75%	+$13,260	-$40,440	54.4%	$-40,966 (vs do-nothing $-36,645)
$895	21d	7 Aug 2026	$60.10	5/5	$42,929	$42,267	64%	74%	+$9,201	-$47,550	64.0%	$-45,546 (vs do-nothing $-41,225)
$890	14d	31 Jul 2026	$51.20	4/5	$43,886	$45,489	64%	74%	+$10,137	-$43,600	58.7%	$-42,861 (vs do-nothing $-38,540)
$895	28d	14 Aug 2026	$70.30	5/5	$37,661	$36,999	64%	74%	+$7,745	-$42,450	57.1%	$-40,446 (vs do-nothing $-36,125)
$885	12d	29 Jul 2026	$44.55	4/5	$44,550	$46,153	64%	74%	+$9,423	-$48,260	65.0%	$-47,521 (vs do-nothing $-43,200)
$880	10d	27 Jul 2026	$38.10	4/5	$45,720	$47,323	64%	74%	+$9,427	-$52,840	71.1%	$-52,101 (vs do-nothing $-47,780)
$890	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.25	5/5	$44,464	$43,802	63%	74%	+$9,435	-$48,975	65.9%	$-46,971 (vs do-nothing $-42,650)
$885	14d	31 Jul 2026	$52.65	4/5	$45,129	$46,732	63%	74%	+$9,815	-$45,020	60.6%	$-44,281 (vs do-nothing $-39,960)
$890	28d	14 Aug 2026	$72.10	5/5	$38,625	$37,963	63%	74%	+$7,723	-$44,050	59.3%	$-42,046 (vs do-nothing $-37,725)
$870	5d	22 Jul 2026	$28.75	3/5	$51,750	$55,618	63%	74%	+$14,222	-$45,435	61.2%	$-45,961 (vs do-nothing $-41,640)
$875	7d	24 Jul 2026	$37.30	3/5	$47,957	$51,825	63%	74%	+$13,364	-$41,370	55.7%	$-41,896 (vs do-nothing $-37,575)
$880	12d	29 Jul 2026	$46.45	4/5	$46,450	$48,053	63%	73%	+$9,481	-$49,500	66.6%	$-48,761 (vs do-nothing $-44,440)
$885	21d	7 Aug 2026	$65.00	5/5	$46,429	$45,767	63%	73%	+$10,058	-$50,100	67.4%	$-48,096 (vs do-nothing $-43,775)
$885	28d	14 Aug 2026	$73.35	5/5	$39,295	$38,633	62%	73%	+$7,381	-$45,925	61.8%	$-43,921 (vs do-nothing $-39,600)
$875	10d	27 Jul 2026	$41.05	4/5	$49,260	$50,863	62%	73%	+$10,748	-$53,660	72.2%	$-52,921 (vs do-nothing $-48,600)
$880	14d	31 Jul 2026	$54.70	4/5	$46,886	$48,489	62%	73%	+$9,952	-$46,200	62.2%	$-45,461 (vs do-nothing $-41,140)
$880	21d	7 Aug 2026	$66.75	4/5	$38,143	$39,746	62%	73%	+$7,942	-$41,380	55.7%	$-40,641 (vs do-nothing $-36,320)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 01:37