FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $847.80

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1056.55 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $847.80 UNDERWATER $180.79 (17.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1056.55 (banked floor $1,037.75) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$76,286/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$690/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-107,848	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$38,143/mo

HEDGE COVER
$690/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$76,286/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1056.55 (probe: $1055C 14d) still earns $15,375/mo (20% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$98,071

was $107,848 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,000

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,056.55 → $1,037.75

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1075C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$6.00	$3,000	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 10 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,232.82 (+45%) · daily UBB $1,239.07 · 1-wk expected move ±$119 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $1056.55 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $1060 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1060)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$14,100

Income / mo

$15,107

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1125 7 Aug 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1125)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$6,925

Income / mo

$9,893

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $117.65/sh now → $83.29 mid-life (likely $72.93–$111.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$69.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 507 simulated challenges: the $1,125 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 21, at $1,161 (overshoots $36.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,125	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.65/sh	+$823 cycle +$7,748 [-$2,126…+$5,630] · 56% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,127	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.38/sh	+$191 cycle +$7,116 [-$2,843…+$4,872] · 52% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,127	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.38/sh	+$191 cycle +$7,116 [-$2,843…+$4,872] · 52% credit	68% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,157	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$12.82/sh	-$6,408 cycle +$517 [-$10,367…-$2,745] · 16% credit	71% surv 60%
budget: banked $6,925 debit $6,408 (93% used ≈ 2.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$517 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $58,732/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1260 22 Jul 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1260)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$15

Income / mo

$90

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,260	24 Jul 2026	4d left	+$4.66/sh	+$2,330 cycle +$2,345	69% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,267	24 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.59/sh	+$296 cycle +$311	70% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,417	14 Aug 2026	26d left	+$0.86/sh	+$429 cycle +$444	80% surv 75%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (139 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 139 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.050 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$109,593 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,581

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$930	5d	22 Jul 2026	$13.75	5/5	$41,250	$40,560	81%	85%	+$18,778	-$56,402	75.9%	$-54,656 (vs do-nothing $-47,075)
$945	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.05	5/5	$38,679	$37,988	80%	84%	+$16,210	-$46,752	62.9%	$-45,006 (vs do-nothing $-37,425)
$925	5d	22 Jul 2026	$14.80	5/5	$44,400	$43,710	80%	84%	+$19,403	-$58,377	78.6%	$-56,631 (vs do-nothing $-49,050)
$942.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.65	5/5	$39,964	$39,274	80%	83%	+$16,558	-$47,702	64.2%	$-45,956 (vs do-nothing $-38,375)
$940	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.25	5/5	$41,250	$40,560	79%	83%	+$16,928	-$48,652	65.5%	$-46,906 (vs do-nothing $-39,325)
$937.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.75	5/5	$42,321	$41,631	78%	83%	+$17,036	-$49,652	66.8%	$-47,906 (vs do-nothing $-40,325)
$920	5d	22 Jul 2026	$16.05	4/5	$38,520	$40,200	78%	83%	+$16,314	-$48,202	64.9%	$-48,321 (vs do-nothing $-40,740)
$935	7d	24 Jul 2026	$20.45	5/5	$43,821	$43,131	78%	82%	+$17,370	-$50,552	68.0%	$-48,806 (vs do-nothing $-41,225)
$932.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.05	5/5	$45,107	$44,417	77%	82%	+$18,083	-$51,502	69.3%	$-49,756 (vs do-nothing $-42,175)
$930	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.80	5/5	$46,714	$46,024	77%	82%	+$18,673	-$52,377	70.5%	$-50,631 (vs do-nothing $-43,050)
$915	5d	22 Jul 2026	$17.20	4/5	$41,280	$42,960	77%	82%	+$16,666	-$49,742	66.9%	$-49,861 (vs do-nothing $-42,280)
$925	7d	24 Jul 2026	$23.10	4/5	$39,600	$41,280	75%	81%	+$14,791	-$43,382	58.4%	$-43,501 (vs do-nothing $-35,920)
$910	5d	22 Jul 2026	$18.55	4/5	$44,520	$46,200	75%	81%	+$17,288	-$51,202	68.9%	$-51,321 (vs do-nothing $-43,740)

Show 126 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 126.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$920	7d	24 Jul 2026	$24.40	4/5	$41,829	$43,508	74%	80%	+$15,083	-$44,862	60.4%	$-44,981 (vs do-nothing $-37,400)
$945	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.20	5/5	$38,786	$38,095	74%	79%	+$11,884	-$37,677	50.7%	$-35,931 (vs do-nothing $-28,350)
$905	5d	22 Jul 2026	$20.00	4/5	$48,000	$49,680	74%	80%	+$17,928	-$52,622	70.8%	$-52,741 (vs do-nothing $-45,160)
$915	7d	24 Jul 2026	$25.65	4/5	$43,971	$45,651	73%	79%	+$15,120	-$46,362	62.4%	$-46,481 (vs do-nothing $-38,900)
$940	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.75	5/5	$39,375	$38,685	73%	79%	+$11,123	-$39,902	53.7%	$-38,156 (vs do-nothing $-30,575)
$930	12d	29 Jul 2026	$31.60	5/5	$39,500	$38,810	72%	79%	+$9,882	-$47,477	63.9%	$-45,731 (vs do-nothing $-38,150)
$920	10d	27 Jul 2026	$27.75	5/5	$41,625	$40,935	72%	79%	+$11,508	-$54,402	73.2%	$-52,656 (vs do-nothing $-45,075)
$900	5d	22 Jul 2026	$21.40	3/5	$38,520	$42,570	72%	79%	+$13,663	-$40,546	54.6%	$-42,531 (vs do-nothing $-34,950)
$935	14d	31 Jul 2026	$39.15	5/5	$41,946	$41,256	72%	79%	+$12,288	-$41,202	55.5%	$-39,456 (vs do-nothing $-31,875)
$910	7d	24 Jul 2026	$27.45	4/5	$47,057	$48,737	72%	78%	+$16,160	-$47,642	64.1%	$-47,761 (vs do-nothing $-40,180)
$925	12d	29 Jul 2026	$32.80	5/5	$41,000	$40,310	71%	78%	+$9,615	-$49,377	66.5%	$-47,631 (vs do-nothing $-40,050)
$915	10d	27 Jul 2026	$27.95	5/5	$41,925	$41,235	71%	78%	+$9,809	-$56,802	76.4%	$-55,056 (vs do-nothing $-47,475)
$930	14d	31 Jul 2026	$40.70	5/5	$43,607	$42,917	71%	78%	+$12,485	-$42,927	57.8%	$-41,181 (vs do-nothing $-33,600)
$920	12d	29 Jul 2026	$34.90	5/5	$43,625	$42,935	70%	77%	+$10,561	-$50,827	68.4%	$-49,081 (vs do-nothing $-41,500)
$905	7d	24 Jul 2026	$29.20	4/5	$50,057	$51,737	70%	78%	+$16,781	-$48,942	65.9%	$-49,061 (vs do-nothing $-41,480)
$895	5d	22 Jul 2026	$23.20	3/5	$41,760	$45,810	70%	78%	+$14,419	-$41,506	55.9%	$-43,491 (vs do-nothing $-35,910)
$925	14d	31 Jul 2026	$42.25	5/5	$45,268	$44,577	70%	77%	+$12,622	-$44,652	60.1%	$-42,906 (vs do-nothing $-35,325)
$910	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.60	5/5	$44,400	$43,710	70%	77%	+$10,179	-$58,477	78.7%	$-56,731 (vs do-nothing $-49,150)
$915	12d	29 Jul 2026	$35.95	5/5	$44,938	$44,247	69%	77%	+$10,122	-$52,802	71.1%	$-51,056 (vs do-nothing $-43,475)
$920	14d	31 Jul 2026	$43.90	5/5	$47,036	$46,345	69%	77%	+$12,806	-$46,327	62.4%	$-44,581 (vs do-nothing $-37,000)
$900	7d	24 Jul 2026	$30.80	3/5	$39,600	$43,650	69%	77%	+$13,007	-$37,726	50.8%	$-39,711 (vs do-nothing $-32,130)
$905	10d	27 Jul 2026	$30.95	5/5	$46,425	$45,735	69%	76%	+$9,989	-$60,302	81.2%	$-58,556 (vs do-nothing $-50,975)
$890	5d	22 Jul 2026	$24.75	3/5	$44,550	$48,600	69%	77%	+$14,537	-$42,541	57.3%	$-44,526 (vs do-nothing $-36,945)
$910	12d	29 Jul 2026	$38.30	4/5	$38,300	$39,980	68%	76%	+$8,987	-$43,302	58.3%	$-43,421 (vs do-nothing $-35,840)
$915	14d	31 Jul 2026	$45.55	4/5	$39,043	$40,722	68%	76%	+$10,343	-$38,402	51.7%	$-38,521 (vs do-nothing $-30,940)
$920	21d	7 Aug 2026	$54.75	5/5	$39,107	$38,417	68%	76%	+$8,763	-$40,902	55.0%	$-39,156 (vs do-nothing $-31,575)
$895	7d	24 Jul 2026	$32.70	3/5	$42,043	$46,092	67%	76%	+$13,271	-$38,656	52.0%	$-40,641 (vs do-nothing $-33,060)
$900	10d	27 Jul 2026	$33.75	4/5	$40,500	$42,180	67%	76%	+$9,490	-$49,122	66.1%	$-49,241 (vs do-nothing $-41,660)
$910	14d	31 Jul 2026	$46.90	4/5	$40,200	$41,880	67%	76%	+$10,134	-$39,862	53.6%	$-39,981 (vs do-nothing $-32,400)
$905	12d	29 Jul 2026	$39.05	4/5	$39,050	$40,730	67%	76%	+$8,216	-$45,002	60.6%	$-45,121 (vs do-nothing $-37,540)
$915	21d	7 Aug 2026	$56.25	5/5	$40,179	$39,488	67%	75%	+$8,713	-$42,652	57.4%	$-40,906 (vs do-nothing $-33,325)
$885	5d	22 Jul 2026	$26.60	3/5	$47,880	$51,930	67%	76%	+$15,001	-$43,486	58.5%	$-45,471 (vs do-nothing $-37,890)
$905	14d	31 Jul 2026	$49.15	4/5	$42,129	$43,808	66%	75%	+$10,645	-$40,962	55.1%	$-41,081 (vs do-nothing $-33,500)
$895	10d	27 Jul 2026	$34.20	4/5	$41,040	$42,720	66%	75%	+$8,077	-$50,942	68.6%	$-51,061 (vs do-nothing $-43,480)
$900	12d	29 Jul 2026	$42.00	4/5	$42,000	$43,680	66%	75%	+$9,583	-$45,822	61.7%	$-45,941 (vs do-nothing $-38,360)
$890	7d	24 Jul 2026	$34.30	3/5	$44,100	$48,150	66%	75%	+$13,235	-$39,676	53.4%	$-41,661 (vs do-nothing $-34,080)
$910	21d	7 Aug 2026	$58.25	5/5	$41,607	$40,917	66%	75%	+$8,986	-$44,152	59.4%	$-42,406 (vs do-nothing $-34,825)
$900	14d	31 Jul 2026	$51.00	4/5	$43,714	$45,394	65%	75%	+$10,760	-$42,222	56.8%	$-42,341 (vs do-nothing $-34,760)
$905	21d	7 Aug 2026	$59.20	5/5	$42,286	$41,595	65%	75%	+$8,476	-$46,177	62.1%	$-44,431 (vs do-nothing $-36,850)
$895	12d	29 Jul 2026	$43.00	4/5	$43,000	$44,680	65%	75%	+$8,936	-$47,422	63.8%	$-47,541 (vs do-nothing $-39,960)
$890	10d	27 Jul 2026	$36.50	4/5	$43,800	$45,480	65%	74%	+$8,790	-$52,022	70.0%	$-52,141 (vs do-nothing $-44,560)
$880	5d	22 Jul 2026	$27.90	3/5	$50,220	$54,270	65%	75%	+$14,276	-$44,596	60.0%	$-46,581 (vs do-nothing $-39,000)
$885	7d	24 Jul 2026	$36.05	3/5	$46,350	$50,400	65%	75%	+$13,283	-$40,651	54.7%	$-42,636 (vs do-nothing $-35,055)
$900	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.10	5/5	$44,357	$43,667	64%	74%	+$9,860	-$47,227	63.6%	$-45,481 (vs do-nothing $-37,900)
$895	14d	31 Jul 2026	$52.80	4/5	$45,257	$46,937	64%	74%	+$10,780	-$43,502	58.5%	$-43,621 (vs do-nothing $-36,040)
$900	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.80	5/5	$38,464	$37,774	64%	74%	+$7,942	-$42,377	57.0%	$-40,631 (vs do-nothing $-33,050)
$890	12d	29 Jul 2026	$44.50	4/5	$44,500	$46,180	64%	74%	+$8,725	-$48,822	65.7%	$-48,941 (vs do-nothing $-41,360)
$885	10d	27 Jul 2026	$38.10	4/5	$45,720	$47,400	64%	74%	+$8,567	-$53,382	71.8%	$-53,501 (vs do-nothing $-45,920)
$895	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.90	5/5	$44,929	$44,238	63%	74%	+$9,126	-$49,327	66.4%	$-47,581 (vs do-nothing $-40,000)
$890	14d	31 Jul 2026	$54.20	4/5	$46,457	$48,137	63%	74%	+$10,403	-$44,942	60.5%	$-45,061 (vs do-nothing $-37,480)
$895	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.80	5/5	$38,464	$37,774	63%	74%	+$6,954	-$44,877	60.4%	$-43,131 (vs do-nothing $-35,550)
$880	7d	24 Jul 2026	$38.00	3/5	$48,857	$52,907	63%	74%	+$13,654	-$41,566	55.9%	$-43,551 (vs do-nothing $-35,970)
$875	5d	22 Jul 2026	$29.55	3/5	$53,190	$57,240	63%	74%	+$13,975	-$45,601	61.4%	$-47,586 (vs do-nothing $-40,005)
$885	12d	29 Jul 2026	$46.50	4/5	$46,500	$48,180	63%	73%	+$8,946	-$50,022	67.3%	$-50,141 (vs do-nothing $-42,560)
$890	21d	7 Aug 2026	$64.85	5/5	$46,321	$45,631	63%	73%	+$9,175	-$50,852	68.4%	$-49,106 (vs do-nothing $-41,525)
$890	28d	14 Aug 2026	$73.75	5/5	$39,509	$38,818	62%	73%	+$5,537	-$46,402	62.5%	$-44,656 (vs do-nothing $-37,075)
$880	10d	27 Jul 2026	$40.15	4/5	$48,180	$49,860	62%	73%	+$8,785	-$54,562	73.4%	$-54,681 (vs do-nothing $-47,100)
$885	14d	31 Jul 2026	$55.20	4/5	$47,314	$48,994	62%	73%	+$9,629	-$46,542	62.6%	$-46,661 (vs do-nothing $-39,080)
$885	21d	7 Aug 2026	$67.50	4/5	$38,571	$40,251	62%	73%	+$7,748	-$41,622	56.0%	$-41,741 (vs do-nothing $-34,160)
$880	12d	29 Jul 2026	$48.55	4/5	$48,550	$50,230	62%	73%	+$9,151	-$51,202	68.9%	$-51,321 (vs do-nothing $-43,740)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 03:39