FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $847.80

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $998.06 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $847.80 UNDERWATER $180.79 (17.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $998.06 (banked floor $979.26) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$76,286/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$690/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-77,385	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$38,143/mo

HEDGE COVER
$690/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$76,286/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $998.06 (probe: $1000C 14d) still earns $24,750/mo (32% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$67,609

was $77,385 · 13% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,000

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$998.06 → $979.26

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1075C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$6.00	$3,000	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 9 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,233.47 (+45%) · daily UBB $1,238.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$119 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $998.06 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $1000 31 Jul 2026 (14d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1000)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$11,550

Income / mo

$24,750

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $88.54/sh now → $62.66 mid-life (likely $62.90–$95.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $23.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$39.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 940 simulated challenges: the $1,000 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 14, at $1,034 (overshoots $34.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,000	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$12.50/sh	+$6,250 cycle +$17,800 [+$3,201…+$8,287] · 99% credit	69% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,037	14 Aug 2026	21d left	+$9.09/sh	+$4,544 cycle +$16,094 [-$816…+$6,105] · 66% credit	72% surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,022	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$2.66/sh	+$1,331 cycle +$12,881 [-$2,375…+$2,706] · 44% credit	71% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,057	14 Aug 2026	21d left	+$1.11/sh	+$553 cycle +$12,103 [-$5,189…+$1,933] · 33% credit	74% surv 64%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,132	14 Aug 2026	21d left	-$22.71/sh	-$11,355 cycle +$195 [-$19,794…-$10,743] · 4% credit	80% surv 75%
budget: banked $11,550 debit $11,355 (98% used ≈ 2.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$195 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $28,537/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1125 7 Aug 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1125)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$6,925

Income / mo

$9,893

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $117.65/sh now → $83.29 mid-life (likely $72.93–$111.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$69.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 507 simulated challenges: the $1,125 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 21, at $1,161 (overshoots $36.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,125	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.65/sh	+$823 cycle +$7,748 [-$2,126…+$5,630] · 56% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,127	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.38/sh	+$191 cycle +$7,116 [-$2,843…+$4,872] · 52% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,127	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.38/sh	+$191 cycle +$7,116 [-$2,843…+$4,872] · 52% credit	68% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,157	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$12.82/sh	-$6,408 cycle +$517 [-$10,367…-$2,745] · 16% credit	71% surv 60%
budget: banked $6,925 debit $6,408 (93% used ≈ 2.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$517 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $58,732/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1260 22 Jul 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1260)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$15

Income / mo

$90

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,260	24 Jul 2026	4d left	+$4.66/sh	+$2,330 cycle +$2,345	69% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,267	24 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.59/sh	+$296 cycle +$311	70% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,417	14 Aug 2026	26d left	+$0.86/sh	+$429 cycle +$444	80% surv 75%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (139 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 139 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.052 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$79,034 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,599

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$930	5d	22 Jul 2026	$13.75	5/5	$41,250	$40,560	81%	85%	+$18,778	-$27,155	36.5%	$-25,506 (vs do-nothing $-31,105)
$945	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.05	5/5	$38,679	$37,988	80%	84%	+$16,210	-$17,505	23.6%	$-15,856 (vs do-nothing $-21,455)
$925	5d	22 Jul 2026	$14.80	5/5	$44,400	$43,710	80%	84%	+$19,403	-$29,130	39.2%	$-27,481 (vs do-nothing $-33,080)
$942.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.65	5/5	$39,964	$39,274	80%	83%	+$16,558	-$18,455	24.8%	$-16,806 (vs do-nothing $-22,405)
$940	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.25	5/5	$41,250	$40,560	79%	83%	+$16,928	-$19,405	26.1%	$-17,756 (vs do-nothing $-23,355)
$937.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.75	5/5	$42,321	$41,631	78%	83%	+$17,036	-$20,405	27.5%	$-18,756 (vs do-nothing $-24,355)
$920	5d	22 Jul 2026	$16.05	4/5	$38,520	$40,200	78%	83%	+$16,314	-$24,804	33.4%	$-22,365 (vs do-nothing $-27,964)
$935	7d	24 Jul 2026	$20.45	5/5	$43,821	$43,131	78%	82%	+$17,370	-$21,305	28.7%	$-19,656 (vs do-nothing $-25,255)
$932.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.05	5/5	$45,107	$44,417	77%	82%	+$18,083	-$22,255	30.0%	$-20,606 (vs do-nothing $-26,205)
$930	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.80	5/5	$46,714	$46,024	77%	82%	+$18,673	-$23,130	31.1%	$-21,481 (vs do-nothing $-27,080)
$915	5d	22 Jul 2026	$17.20	4/5	$41,280	$42,960	77%	82%	+$16,666	-$26,344	35.5%	$-23,905 (vs do-nothing $-29,504)
$925	7d	24 Jul 2026	$23.10	4/5	$39,600	$41,280	75%	81%	+$14,791	-$19,984	26.9%	$-17,545 (vs do-nothing $-23,144)
$910	5d	22 Jul 2026	$18.55	4/5	$44,520	$46,200	75%	81%	+$17,288	-$27,804	37.4%	$-25,365 (vs do-nothing $-30,964)

Show 126 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 126.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$920	7d	24 Jul 2026	$24.40	4/5	$41,829	$43,508	74%	80%	+$15,083	-$21,464	28.9%	$-19,025 (vs do-nothing $-24,624)
$945	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.20	5/5	$38,786	$38,095	74%	79%	+$11,884	-$8,430	11.3%	$-6,781 (vs do-nothing $-12,380)
$905	5d	22 Jul 2026	$20.00	4/5	$48,000	$49,680	74%	80%	+$17,928	-$29,224	39.3%	$-26,785 (vs do-nothing $-32,384)
$915	7d	24 Jul 2026	$25.65	4/5	$43,971	$45,651	73%	79%	+$15,120	-$22,964	30.9%	$-20,525 (vs do-nothing $-26,124)
$940	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.75	5/5	$39,375	$38,685	73%	79%	+$11,123	-$10,655	14.3%	$-9,006 (vs do-nothing $-14,605)
$930	12d	29 Jul 2026	$31.60	5/5	$39,500	$38,810	72%	79%	+$9,882	-$18,230	24.5%	$-16,581 (vs do-nothing $-22,180)
$920	10d	27 Jul 2026	$27.75	5/5	$41,625	$40,935	72%	79%	+$11,508	-$25,155	33.9%	$-23,506 (vs do-nothing $-29,105)
$900	5d	22 Jul 2026	$21.40	3/5	$38,520	$42,570	72%	79%	+$13,663	-$22,998	31.0%	$-19,769 (vs do-nothing $-25,368)
$935	14d	31 Jul 2026	$39.15	5/5	$41,946	$41,256	72%	79%	+$12,288	-$11,955	16.1%	$-10,306 (vs do-nothing $-15,905)
$910	7d	24 Jul 2026	$27.45	4/5	$47,057	$48,737	72%	78%	+$16,160	-$24,244	32.6%	$-21,805 (vs do-nothing $-27,404)
$925	12d	29 Jul 2026	$32.80	5/5	$41,000	$40,310	71%	78%	+$9,615	-$20,130	27.1%	$-18,481 (vs do-nothing $-24,080)
$915	10d	27 Jul 2026	$27.95	5/5	$41,925	$41,235	71%	78%	+$9,809	-$27,555	37.1%	$-25,906 (vs do-nothing $-31,505)
$930	14d	31 Jul 2026	$40.70	5/5	$43,607	$42,917	71%	78%	+$12,485	-$13,680	18.4%	$-12,031 (vs do-nothing $-17,630)
$920	12d	29 Jul 2026	$34.90	5/5	$43,625	$42,935	70%	77%	+$10,561	-$21,580	29.0%	$-19,931 (vs do-nothing $-25,530)
$905	7d	24 Jul 2026	$29.20	4/5	$50,057	$51,737	70%	78%	+$16,781	-$25,544	34.4%	$-23,105 (vs do-nothing $-28,704)
$895	5d	22 Jul 2026	$23.20	3/5	$41,760	$45,810	70%	78%	+$14,419	-$23,958	32.2%	$-20,729 (vs do-nothing $-26,328)
$925	14d	31 Jul 2026	$42.25	5/5	$45,268	$44,577	70%	77%	+$12,622	-$15,405	20.7%	$-13,756 (vs do-nothing $-19,355)
$910	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.60	5/5	$44,400	$43,710	70%	77%	+$10,179	-$29,230	39.3%	$-27,581 (vs do-nothing $-33,180)
$915	12d	29 Jul 2026	$35.95	5/5	$44,938	$44,247	69%	77%	+$10,122	-$23,555	31.7%	$-21,906 (vs do-nothing $-27,505)
$920	14d	31 Jul 2026	$43.90	5/5	$47,036	$46,345	69%	77%	+$12,806	-$17,080	23.0%	$-15,431 (vs do-nothing $-21,030)
$900	7d	24 Jul 2026	$30.80	3/5	$39,600	$43,650	69%	77%	+$13,007	-$20,178	27.2%	$-16,949 (vs do-nothing $-22,548)
$905	10d	27 Jul 2026	$30.95	5/5	$46,425	$45,735	69%	76%	+$9,989	-$31,055	41.8%	$-29,406 (vs do-nothing $-35,005)
$890	5d	22 Jul 2026	$24.75	3/5	$44,550	$48,600	69%	77%	+$14,537	-$24,993	33.6%	$-21,764 (vs do-nothing $-27,363)
$910	12d	29 Jul 2026	$38.30	4/5	$38,300	$39,980	68%	76%	+$8,987	-$19,904	26.8%	$-17,465 (vs do-nothing $-23,064)
$915	14d	31 Jul 2026	$45.55	4/5	$39,043	$40,722	68%	76%	+$10,343	-$15,004	20.2%	$-12,565 (vs do-nothing $-18,164)
$920	21d	7 Aug 2026	$54.75	5/5	$39,107	$38,417	68%	76%	+$8,763	-$11,655	15.7%	$-10,006 (vs do-nothing $-15,605)
$895	7d	24 Jul 2026	$32.70	3/5	$42,043	$46,092	67%	76%	+$13,271	-$21,108	28.4%	$-17,879 (vs do-nothing $-23,478)
$900	10d	27 Jul 2026	$33.75	4/5	$40,500	$42,180	67%	76%	+$9,490	-$25,724	34.6%	$-23,285 (vs do-nothing $-28,884)
$910	14d	31 Jul 2026	$46.90	4/5	$40,200	$41,880	67%	76%	+$10,134	-$16,464	22.2%	$-14,025 (vs do-nothing $-19,624)
$905	12d	29 Jul 2026	$39.05	4/5	$39,050	$40,730	67%	76%	+$8,216	-$21,604	29.1%	$-19,165 (vs do-nothing $-24,764)
$915	21d	7 Aug 2026	$56.25	5/5	$40,179	$39,488	67%	75%	+$8,713	-$13,405	18.0%	$-11,756 (vs do-nothing $-17,355)
$885	5d	22 Jul 2026	$26.60	3/5	$47,880	$51,930	67%	76%	+$15,001	-$25,938	34.9%	$-22,709 (vs do-nothing $-28,308)
$905	14d	31 Jul 2026	$49.15	4/5	$42,129	$43,808	66%	75%	+$10,645	-$17,564	23.6%	$-15,125 (vs do-nothing $-20,724)
$895	10d	27 Jul 2026	$34.20	4/5	$41,040	$42,720	66%	75%	+$8,077	-$27,544	37.1%	$-25,105 (vs do-nothing $-30,704)
$900	12d	29 Jul 2026	$42.00	4/5	$42,000	$43,680	66%	75%	+$9,583	-$22,424	30.2%	$-19,985 (vs do-nothing $-25,584)
$890	7d	24 Jul 2026	$34.30	3/5	$44,100	$48,150	66%	75%	+$13,235	-$22,128	29.8%	$-18,899 (vs do-nothing $-24,498)
$910	21d	7 Aug 2026	$58.25	5/5	$41,607	$40,917	66%	75%	+$8,986	-$14,905	20.1%	$-13,256 (vs do-nothing $-18,855)
$900	14d	31 Jul 2026	$51.00	4/5	$43,714	$45,394	65%	75%	+$10,760	-$18,824	25.3%	$-16,385 (vs do-nothing $-21,984)
$905	21d	7 Aug 2026	$59.20	5/5	$42,286	$41,595	65%	75%	+$8,476	-$16,930	22.8%	$-15,281 (vs do-nothing $-20,880)
$895	12d	29 Jul 2026	$43.00	4/5	$43,000	$44,680	65%	75%	+$8,936	-$24,024	32.3%	$-21,585 (vs do-nothing $-27,184)
$890	10d	27 Jul 2026	$36.50	4/5	$43,800	$45,480	65%	74%	+$8,790	-$28,624	38.5%	$-26,185 (vs do-nothing $-31,784)
$880	5d	22 Jul 2026	$27.90	3/5	$50,220	$54,270	65%	75%	+$14,276	-$27,048	36.4%	$-23,819 (vs do-nothing $-29,418)
$885	7d	24 Jul 2026	$36.05	3/5	$46,350	$50,400	65%	75%	+$13,283	-$23,103	31.1%	$-19,874 (vs do-nothing $-25,473)
$900	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.10	5/5	$44,357	$43,667	64%	74%	+$9,860	-$17,980	24.2%	$-16,331 (vs do-nothing $-21,930)
$895	14d	31 Jul 2026	$52.80	4/5	$45,257	$46,937	64%	74%	+$10,780	-$20,104	27.1%	$-17,665 (vs do-nothing $-23,264)
$900	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.80	5/5	$38,464	$37,774	64%	74%	+$7,942	-$13,130	17.7%	$-11,481 (vs do-nothing $-17,080)
$890	12d	29 Jul 2026	$44.50	4/5	$44,500	$46,180	64%	74%	+$8,725	-$25,424	34.2%	$-22,985 (vs do-nothing $-28,584)
$885	10d	27 Jul 2026	$38.10	4/5	$45,720	$47,400	64%	74%	+$8,567	-$29,984	40.4%	$-27,545 (vs do-nothing $-33,144)
$895	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.90	5/5	$44,929	$44,238	63%	74%	+$9,126	-$20,080	27.0%	$-18,431 (vs do-nothing $-24,030)
$890	14d	31 Jul 2026	$54.20	4/5	$46,457	$48,137	63%	74%	+$10,403	-$21,544	29.0%	$-19,105 (vs do-nothing $-24,704)
$895	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.80	5/5	$38,464	$37,774	63%	74%	+$6,954	-$15,630	21.0%	$-13,981 (vs do-nothing $-19,580)
$880	7d	24 Jul 2026	$38.00	3/5	$48,857	$52,907	63%	74%	+$13,654	-$24,018	32.3%	$-20,789 (vs do-nothing $-26,388)
$875	5d	22 Jul 2026	$29.55	3/5	$53,190	$57,240	63%	74%	+$13,975	-$28,053	37.8%	$-24,824 (vs do-nothing $-30,423)
$885	12d	29 Jul 2026	$46.50	4/5	$46,500	$48,180	63%	73%	+$8,946	-$26,624	35.8%	$-24,185 (vs do-nothing $-29,784)
$890	21d	7 Aug 2026	$64.85	5/5	$46,321	$45,631	63%	73%	+$9,175	-$21,605	29.1%	$-19,956 (vs do-nothing $-25,555)
$890	28d	14 Aug 2026	$73.75	5/5	$39,509	$38,818	62%	73%	+$5,537	-$17,155	23.1%	$-15,506 (vs do-nothing $-21,105)
$880	10d	27 Jul 2026	$40.15	4/5	$48,180	$49,860	62%	73%	+$8,785	-$31,164	41.9%	$-28,725 (vs do-nothing $-34,324)
$885	14d	31 Jul 2026	$55.20	4/5	$47,314	$48,994	62%	73%	+$9,629	-$23,144	31.1%	$-20,705 (vs do-nothing $-26,304)
$885	21d	7 Aug 2026	$67.50	4/5	$38,571	$40,251	62%	73%	+$7,748	-$18,224	24.5%	$-15,785 (vs do-nothing $-21,384)
$880	12d	29 Jul 2026	$48.55	4/5	$48,550	$50,230	62%	73%	+$9,151	-$27,804	37.4%	$-25,365 (vs do-nothing $-30,964)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 09:44