FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $828.53

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1058.78 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $828.53 UNDERWATER $200.07 (19.5% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1058.78 (banked floor $1,039.97) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$70,714/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$762/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-118,925	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$35,357/mo

HEDGE COVER
$762/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$70,714/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.1 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $419,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1058.78 (probe: $1060C 14d) brings only $10,661/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$9,776

Hole (after banked)

$109,149

was $118,925 · 8% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,000

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,058.78 → $1,039.97

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1075C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$6.00	$3,000	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 62 (live) · RSI 58 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 11 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,230.66 (+49%) · daily UBB $1,234.91 · 1-wk expected move ±$120 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $915 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($35,357/mo); it brings $37,500/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $855/7d for $73,821/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $1210/7d (99+% survival, $857/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $63,138 (85% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-119,525 and cuts bleed by $762/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $915, 78% survival, $37,500/mo (E[net] $6,504/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 7d	5 × $915	78%	$37,500	$6,504

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $6,504/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $915 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $37,500/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $950 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 22% → 15%) for $13,929/mo less (37% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $950 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $828.53 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

4 × $1210

24 Jul

46.0%

99+%

-2pp

$200

$857

-$36,643

Sell 4 × $1210 46.0% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.87 mid)

= $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1210)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1210.87)

99+%

EV / mo

+$795

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-2pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$687/mo

median; plan ~$467/mo after 68% keep · $1,871 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$21,414

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,321 @ 77% POP

70% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $76.38/sh now → $54.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$53.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,210	27 Jul 2026	6d left	-$5.92/sh	-$2,369 cycle -$2,169	66% surv 52%	+$61,473 SAFE cap gain +$180,398
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,321	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.32/sh	+$129 cycle +$329	77% surv 70%	+$111,346 SAFE cap gain +$230,271

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$857/mo
vs 50% target ($35,357/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($70,714/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$983/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1210 is at/above CC-SS $1058.78: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-95,288

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,210.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,197.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,198-1,210.87	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,210.87	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,210.00 (3.2σ)	$200	$63,843	+$182,768	+$71,016
+2.5%	$1,240.25 (3.4σ)	$-11,900	$64,599	+$183,524	+$71,016
+5%	$1,270.50 (3.7σ)	$-24,000	$65,355	+$184,280	+$71,016

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1058.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,879

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $1210): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1030): -$2,582

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-628 (+$118,297 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,954 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$10,326, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $990

24 Jul

19.5%

90%

20%

+2pp

$3,300

$14,143

-$23,357

$31,088

Sell 5 × $990 19.5% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.22 mid)

= $3,300 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,143/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $990)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $997.23)

91%

EV / mo

+$6,233

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

73% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$9,271/mo

median; plan ~$6,304/mo after 68% keep · $17,572 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$18,805

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,136 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $62.50/sh now → $44.21 mid-life (likely $37.79–$66.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,023 (overshoots $32.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,051	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.47/sh	+$4,233 cycle +$7,533 [-$149…+$7,740] · 74% credit	73% surv 65%	+$5,651 SAFE cap gain +$124,576
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$990	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.26/sh	+$128 cycle +$3,428 [-$2,204…+$3,095] · 54% credit	67% surv 52%	-$30,726 NOT cap gain +$88,199
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,116	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.14/sh	+$69 cycle +$3,369 [-$5,415…+$3,508] · 44% credit	79% surv 74%	+$35,612 SAFE cap gain +$154,537
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,136	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$4.07/sh	-$2,035 cycle +$1,265 [-$7,900…+$1,369] · 32% credit	81% surv 76%	+$44,008 SAFE cap gain +$162,933
budget: banked $3,300 debit $2,035 (62% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,265 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $25,088/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$14,143/mo
vs 50% target ($35,357/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($70,714/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$13,381/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $990 is $69 below CC-SS $1058.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,088
… as % of IC ($74,300)	41.8%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	7.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-119,238

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.65/sh (~25% of the $6.60 collected) or spot ≥ $997.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $990)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $980.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $980-997.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $997.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$990.00 (1.3σ)	$3,300	$-30,853	+$88,072	+$1,820
+2.5%	$1,014.75 (1.6σ)	$-9,075	$-30,234	+$88,691	-$10,555
+5%	$1,039.50 (1.8σ)	$-21,450	$-29,616	+$89,309	-$18,180

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1058.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,879

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $990): -$31,088

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,134 (+$89,791 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,954 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,180, the opportunity cost of earning $14,143/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $950

24 Jul

14.7%

85%

32%

+3pp

$5,500

$23,571

-$13,929

$48,888

Sell 5 × $950 14.7% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $11.75 mid)

= $5,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $23,571/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $950)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $961.75)

86%

EV / mo

+$7,862

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

74% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$13,353/mo

median; plan ~$9,080/mo after 68% keep · $23,377 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

24%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$15,712

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,121 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $59.97/sh now → $42.42 mid-life (likely $42.48–$67.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 706 simulated challenges: the $950 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $981 (overshoots $31.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,011	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.77/sh	+$4,387 cycle +$9,887 [-$1,205…+$5,425] · 66% credit	73% surv 65%	-$12,995 NOT cap gain +$105,930
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$950	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.13/sh	+$567 cycle +$6,067 [-$2,474…+$1,872] · 42% credit	67% surv 52%	-$49,086 NOT cap gain +$69,839
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$951	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.33/sh	+$164 cycle +$5,664 [-$3,007…+$1,342] · 37% credit	67% surv 53%	-$48,718 NOT cap gain +$70,207
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,076	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.51/sh	+$257 cycle +$5,757 [-$6,704…+$1,112] · 32% credit	79% surv 74%	+$17,000 SAFE cap gain +$135,925
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,121	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$9.10/sh	-$4,548 cycle +$952 [-$12,478…-$4,002] · 13% credit	83% surv 79%	+$35,820 SAFE cap gain +$154,745
budget: banked $5,500 debit $4,548 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$952 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $20,830/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$23,571/mo
vs 50% target ($35,357/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($70,714/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22,810/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $950 is $109 below CC-SS $1058.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$48,888
… as % of IC ($74,300)	65.8%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	11.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-119,300

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.75/sh (~25% of the $11.00 collected) or spot ≥ $961.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $950)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $940.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $940-961.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $961.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$950.00 (1.0σ)	$5,500	$-49,653	+$69,272	+$4,020
+2.5%	$973.75 (1.2σ)	$-6,375	$-49,059	+$69,866	-$7,855
+5%	$997.50 (1.4σ)	$-18,250	$-48,466	+$70,459	-$19,730
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.7σ)	$-33,800	$-47,688	+$71,237	-$35,280

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1058.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,879

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $950): -$48,888

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,934 (+$71,991 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,954 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,980, the opportunity cost of earning $23,571/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $915

24 Jul

10.4%

78%

35%

+5pp

$8,750

$37,500

—

$63,138

Sell 5 × $915 10.4% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.70 mid)

= $8,750 credit for the 7d cycle → $37,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $915)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $933.70)

82%

EV / mo

+$10,197

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

73% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$18,771/mo

median; plan ~$12,764/mo after 68% keep · $33,831 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.4], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$11,681

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,136 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Buyback gross: $57.76/sh now → $40.86 mid-life (likely $44.79–$68.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,062 simulated challenges: the $915 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $945 (overshoots $29.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$976	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.95/sh	+$4,474 cycle +$13,224 [-$1,747…+$4,460] · 62% credit	74% surv 66%	-$28,032 NOT cap gain +$90,893
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$915	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.84/sh	+$921 cycle +$9,671 [-$2,494…+$1,300] · 38% credit	67% surv 52%	-$63,857 NOT cap gain +$55,068
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$916	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.04/sh	+$520 cycle +$9,270 [-$2,993…+$862] · 32% credit	67% surv 53%	-$63,487 NOT cap gain +$55,438
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,041	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.74/sh	+$372 cycle +$9,122 [-$7,490…-$120] · 25% credit	79% surv 74%	+$1,990 SAFE cap gain +$120,915
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,136	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$17.34/sh	-$8,668 cycle +$82 [-$18,673…-$9,910] · 2% credit	87% surv 85%	+$42,825 SAFE cap gain +$161,750
budget: banked $8,750 debit $8,668 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $14,703/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$37,500/mo
vs 50% target ($35,357/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($70,714/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$36,738/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $915 is $144 below CC-SS $1058.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$63,138
… as % of IC ($74,300)	85.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	15.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-119,525

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.38/sh (~25% of the $17.50 collected) or spot ≥ $933.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $915)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $905.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $906-933.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $933.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$915.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,750	$-64,778	+$54,147	+$7,270
+2.5%	$937.87 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,687	$-64,206	+$54,719	-$4,167
+5%	$960.75 (1.1σ)	$-14,125	$-63,634	+$55,291	-$15,605
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.7σ)	$-48,050	$-61,938	+$56,987	-$49,530

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1058.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,879

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $915): -$63,138

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,184 (+$57,741 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,954 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,230, the opportunity cost of earning $37,500/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $855

24 Jul

3.2%

61%

82%

+10pp

$17,225

$73,821

+$36,321

$84,663

Sell 5 × $855 3.2% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $37.48 mid)

= $17,225 credit for the 7d cycle → $73,821/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $855)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $892.48)

71%

EV / mo

+$6,054

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

80% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$31,507/mo

median; plan ~$21,425/mo after 68% keep · $38,799 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

63%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,866

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,131 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $53.97/sh now → $38.18 mid-life (likely $50.69–$74.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $34.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,903 simulated challenges: the $855 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $885 (overshoots $30.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$911	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$22.43/sh	+$11,214 cycle +$28,439 [+$2,928…+$8,119] · 87% credit	73% surv 65%	-$46,942 NOT cap gain +$71,983
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$855	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.92/sh	+$1,462 cycle +$18,687 [-$3,102…-$253] · 21% credit	67% surv 53%	-$86,342 NOT cap gain +$32,583
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$861	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.29/sh	+$147 cycle +$17,372 [-$4,731…-$1,705] · 12% credit	68% surv 55%	-$84,259 NOT cap gain +$34,666
Max even-money escape in the band	~$981	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.92/sh	+$462 cycle +$17,687 [-$9,777…-$3,286] · 11% credit	80% surv 75%	-$20,945 NOT cap gain +$97,980
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,131	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$24.13/sh	-$12,066 cycle +$5,159 [-$26,379…-$17,101]	90% surv 89%	+$45,277 SAFE cap gain +$164,202
budget: banked $17,225 debit $12,066 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,159 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,781/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$73,821/mo
vs 50% target ($35,357/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($70,714/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$73,060/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $855 is $204 below CC-SS $1058.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$84,663
… as % of IC ($74,300)	113.9%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	20.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-120,438

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.61/sh (~25% of the $34.45 collected) or spot ≥ $892.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $855)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $846.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $846-892.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $892.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$855.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$17,225	$-87,803	+$31,122	+$15,745
+2.5%	$876.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,538	$-87,269	+$31,656	+$5,058
+5%	$897.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-4,150	$-86,734	+$32,191	-$5,630
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.7σ)	$-69,575	$-83,463	+$35,462	-$71,055

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1058.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,879

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $855): -$84,663

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-82,709 (+$36,216 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,954 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,755, the opportunity cost of earning $73,821/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (130 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 130 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.050 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$120,879 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,954

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$905	5d	22 Jul 2026	$11.80	5/5	$35,400	$34,638	79%	82%	+$7,831	-$70,988	95.5%	$-69,034 (vs do-nothing $-58,080)
$915	7d	24 Jul 2026	$17.50	5/5	$37,500	$36,738	78%	82%	+$10,197	-$63,138	85.0%	$-61,184 (vs do-nothing $-50,230)
$900	5d	22 Jul 2026	$12.90	5/5	$38,700	$37,938	77%	81%	+$8,271	-$72,938	98.2%	$-70,984 (vs do-nothing $-60,030)
$910	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.80	5/5	$40,286	$39,524	76%	81%	+$10,851	-$64,988	87.5%	$-63,034 (vs do-nothing $-52,080)
$895	5d	22 Jul 2026	$13.95	5/5	$41,850	$41,088	76%	80%	+$8,313	-$74,913	100.8%	$-72,959 (vs do-nothing $-62,005)
$905	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.80	5/5	$42,429	$41,667	75%	80%	+$10,726	-$66,988	90.2%	$-65,034 (vs do-nothing $-54,080)
$890	5d	22 Jul 2026	$15.20	4/5	$36,480	$36,606	75%	79%	+$6,955	-$61,430	82.7%	$-62,058 (vs do-nothing $-51,104)
$900	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.60	4/5	$37,029	$37,155	74%	79%	+$9,739	-$54,870	73.8%	$-55,498 (vs do-nothing $-44,544)
$885	5d	22 Jul 2026	$16.80	4/5	$40,320	$40,446	73%	78%	+$7,881	-$62,790	84.5%	$-63,418 (vs do-nothing $-52,464)
$895	7d	24 Jul 2026	$22.45	4/5	$38,486	$38,612	73%	79%	+$9,151	-$56,530	76.1%	$-57,158 (vs do-nothing $-46,204)
$900	10d	27 Jul 2026	$23.90	5/5	$35,850	$35,088	72%	78%	+$6,183	-$67,438	90.8%	$-65,484 (vs do-nothing $-54,530)
$910	12d	29 Jul 2026	$28.55	5/5	$35,688	$34,926	72%	78%	+$5,324	-$60,113	80.9%	$-58,159 (vs do-nothing $-47,205)
$915	14d	31 Jul 2026	$33.50	5/5	$35,893	$35,131	72%	78%	+$7,177	-$55,138	74.2%	$-53,184 (vs do-nothing $-42,230)

Show 117 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 117.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$890	7d	24 Jul 2026	$23.90	4/5	$40,971	$41,098	71%	78%	+$9,469	-$57,950	78.0%	$-58,578 (vs do-nothing $-47,624)
$880	5d	22 Jul 2026	$17.85	4/5	$42,840	$42,966	71%	77%	+$7,258	-$64,370	86.6%	$-64,998 (vs do-nothing $-54,044)
$905	12d	29 Jul 2026	$29.30	5/5	$36,625	$35,863	71%	77%	+$4,640	-$62,238	83.8%	$-60,284 (vs do-nothing $-49,330)
$910	14d	31 Jul 2026	$35.65	5/5	$38,196	$37,435	71%	78%	+$8,084	-$56,563	76.1%	$-54,609 (vs do-nothing $-43,655)
$895	10d	27 Jul 2026	$24.75	5/5	$37,125	$36,363	71%	77%	+$5,446	-$69,513	93.6%	$-67,559 (vs do-nothing $-56,605)
$905	14d	31 Jul 2026	$37.00	5/5	$39,643	$38,881	70%	77%	+$8,079	-$58,388	78.6%	$-56,434 (vs do-nothing $-45,480)
$900	12d	29 Jul 2026	$31.35	5/5	$39,188	$38,426	70%	77%	+$5,511	-$63,713	85.8%	$-61,759 (vs do-nothing $-50,805)
$885	7d	24 Jul 2026	$25.40	4/5	$43,543	$43,669	70%	77%	+$9,746	-$59,350	79.9%	$-59,978 (vs do-nothing $-49,024)
$890	10d	27 Jul 2026	$26.20	5/5	$39,300	$38,538	70%	77%	+$5,499	-$71,288	95.9%	$-69,334 (vs do-nothing $-58,380)
$875	5d	22 Jul 2026	$19.30	4/5	$46,320	$46,446	70%	76%	+$7,356	-$65,790	88.5%	$-66,418 (vs do-nothing $-55,464)
$900	14d	31 Jul 2026	$38.75	5/5	$41,518	$40,756	69%	76%	+$8,445	-$60,013	80.8%	$-58,059 (vs do-nothing $-47,105)
$895	12d	29 Jul 2026	$33.20	5/5	$41,500	$40,738	69%	76%	+$6,060	-$65,288	87.9%	$-63,334 (vs do-nothing $-52,380)
$885	10d	27 Jul 2026	$28.05	5/5	$42,075	$41,313	69%	76%	+$6,040	-$72,863	98.1%	$-70,909 (vs do-nothing $-59,955)
$895	14d	31 Jul 2026	$39.65	5/5	$42,482	$41,720	68%	76%	+$7,843	-$62,063	83.5%	$-60,109 (vs do-nothing $-49,155)
$880	7d	24 Jul 2026	$27.10	4/5	$46,457	$46,583	68%	75%	+$7,538	-$60,670	81.7%	$-61,298 (vs do-nothing $-50,344)
$890	12d	29 Jul 2026	$34.80	5/5	$43,500	$42,738	68%	76%	+$6,223	-$66,988	90.2%	$-65,034 (vs do-nothing $-54,080)
$870	5d	22 Jul 2026	$20.90	3/5	$37,620	$38,634	68%	75%	+$5,677	-$50,363	67.8%	$-53,572 (vs do-nothing $-42,618)
$900	21d	7 Aug 2026	$49.95	5/5	$35,679	$34,917	68%	76%	+$5,440	-$54,413	73.2%	$-52,459 (vs do-nothing $-41,505)
$880	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.75	4/5	$35,700	$35,826	67%	75%	+$4,992	-$59,610	80.2%	$-60,238 (vs do-nothing $-49,284)
$890	14d	31 Jul 2026	$41.60	4/5	$35,657	$35,783	67%	76%	+$6,644	-$50,870	68.5%	$-51,498 (vs do-nothing $-40,544)
$885	12d	29 Jul 2026	$36.30	4/5	$36,300	$36,426	67%	75%	+$4,948	-$54,990	74.0%	$-55,618 (vs do-nothing $-44,664)
$875	7d	24 Jul 2026	$28.95	3/5	$37,221	$38,236	67%	75%	+$5,965	-$46,448	62.5%	$-49,657 (vs do-nothing $-38,703)
$895	21d	7 Aug 2026	$51.85	5/5	$37,036	$36,274	67%	75%	+$5,622	-$55,963	75.3%	$-54,009 (vs do-nothing $-43,055)
$885	14d	31 Jul 2026	$43.00	4/5	$36,857	$36,983	66%	75%	+$5,155	-$52,310	70.4%	$-52,938 (vs do-nothing $-41,984)
$865	5d	22 Jul 2026	$22.50	3/5	$40,500	$41,514	66%	74%	+$5,646	-$51,383	69.2%	$-54,592 (vs do-nothing $-43,638)
$875	10d	27 Jul 2026	$30.65	4/5	$36,780	$36,906	66%	74%	+$4,096	-$61,250	82.4%	$-61,878 (vs do-nothing $-50,924)
$880	12d	29 Jul 2026	$38.00	4/5	$38,000	$38,126	66%	74%	+$5,055	-$56,310	75.8%	$-56,938 (vs do-nothing $-45,984)
$890	21d	7 Aug 2026	$52.40	5/5	$37,429	$36,667	66%	75%	+$4,804	-$58,188	78.3%	$-56,234 (vs do-nothing $-45,280)
$870	7d	24 Jul 2026	$30.35	3/5	$39,021	$40,036	65%	74%	+$5,586	-$47,528	64.0%	$-50,737 (vs do-nothing $-39,783)
$880	14d	31 Jul 2026	$44.65	4/5	$38,271	$38,398	65%	74%	+$5,097	-$53,650	72.2%	$-54,278 (vs do-nothing $-43,324)
$885	21d	7 Aug 2026	$54.85	5/5	$39,179	$38,417	65%	74%	+$5,307	-$59,463	80.0%	$-57,509 (vs do-nothing $-46,555)
$875	12d	29 Jul 2026	$38.85	4/5	$38,850	$38,976	65%	74%	+$4,250	-$57,970	78.0%	$-58,598 (vs do-nothing $-47,644)
$870	10d	27 Jul 2026	$33.35	4/5	$40,020	$40,146	65%	74%	+$5,263	-$62,170	83.7%	$-62,798 (vs do-nothing $-51,844)
$860	5d	22 Jul 2026	$24.25	3/5	$43,650	$44,664	64%	73%	+$5,689	-$52,358	70.5%	$-55,567 (vs do-nothing $-44,613)
$880	21d	7 Aug 2026	$55.95	5/5	$39,964	$39,202	64%	74%	+$4,809	-$61,413	82.7%	$-59,459 (vs do-nothing $-48,505)
$875	14d	31 Jul 2026	$47.05	4/5	$40,329	$40,455	64%	74%	+$5,628	-$54,690	73.6%	$-55,318 (vs do-nothing $-44,364)
$865	7d	24 Jul 2026	$31.65	3/5	$40,693	$41,707	64%	73%	+$4,966	-$48,638	65.5%	$-51,847 (vs do-nothing $-40,893)
$870	12d	29 Jul 2026	$41.25	4/5	$41,250	$41,376	64%	73%	+$4,929	-$59,010	79.4%	$-59,638 (vs do-nothing $-48,684)
$865	10d	27 Jul 2026	$34.45	4/5	$41,340	$41,466	64%	73%	+$4,409	-$63,730	85.8%	$-64,358 (vs do-nothing $-53,404)
$875	21d	7 Aug 2026	$58.15	5/5	$41,536	$40,774	63%	73%	+$5,060	-$62,813	84.5%	$-60,859 (vs do-nothing $-49,905)
$870	14d	31 Jul 2026	$48.35	4/5	$41,443	$41,569	63%	73%	+$5,162	-$56,170	75.6%	$-56,798 (vs do-nothing $-45,844)
$875	28d	14 Aug 2026	$67.15	5/5	$35,973	$35,211	63%	73%	+$2,604	-$58,313	78.5%	$-56,359 (vs do-nothing $-45,405)
$865	12d	29 Jul 2026	$43.15	4/5	$43,150	$43,276	63%	73%	+$5,042	-$60,250	81.1%	$-60,878 (vs do-nothing $-49,924)
$860	7d	24 Jul 2026	$32.55	3/5	$41,850	$42,864	63%	72%	+$3,715	-$49,868	67.1%	$-53,077 (vs do-nothing $-42,123)
$870	21d	7 Aug 2026	$60.30	5/5	$43,071	$42,310	63%	73%	+$5,237	-$64,238	86.5%	$-62,284 (vs do-nothing $-51,330)
$855	5d	22 Jul 2026	$26.00	3/5	$46,800	$47,814	63%	72%	+$5,532	-$53,333	71.8%	$-56,542 (vs do-nothing $-45,588)
$870	28d	14 Aug 2026	$69.30	5/5	$37,125	$36,363	62%	72%	+$2,766	-$59,738	80.4%	$-57,784 (vs do-nothing $-46,830)
$860	10d	27 Jul 2026	$36.30	4/5	$43,560	$43,686	62%	72%	+$4,354	-$64,990	87.5%	$-65,618 (vs do-nothing $-54,664)
$865	14d	31 Jul 2026	$49.85	4/5	$42,729	$42,855	62%	72%	+$4,813	-$57,570	77.5%	$-58,198 (vs do-nothing $-47,244)
$865	21d	7 Aug 2026	$61.95	4/5	$35,400	$35,526	62%	72%	+$4,015	-$52,730	71.0%	$-53,358 (vs do-nothing $-42,404)
$865	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.25	5/5	$38,170	$37,408	62%	72%	+$2,797	-$61,263	82.5%	$-59,309 (vs do-nothing $-48,355)
$860	12d	29 Jul 2026	$45.40	4/5	$45,400	$45,526	61%	72%	+$5,664	-$61,350	82.6%	$-61,978 (vs do-nothing $-51,024)
$855	7d	24 Jul 2026	$34.45	3/5	$44,293	$45,307	61%	71%	+$3,632	-$50,798	68.4%	$-54,007 (vs do-nothing $-43,053)
$860	14d	31 Jul 2026	$52.15	4/5	$44,700	$44,826	61%	72%	+$5,095	-$58,650	78.9%	$-59,278 (vs do-nothing $-48,324)
$860	21d	7 Aug 2026	$64.05	4/5	$36,600	$36,726	61%	72%	+$4,068	-$53,890	72.5%	$-54,518 (vs do-nothing $-43,564)
$855	10d	27 Jul 2026	$38.20	4/5	$45,840	$45,966	61%	72%	+$4,255	-$66,230	89.1%	$-66,858 (vs do-nothing $-55,904)
$860	28d	14 Aug 2026	$73.45	5/5	$39,348	$38,586	61%	72%	+$2,938	-$62,663	84.3%	$-60,709 (vs do-nothing $-49,755)
$850	5d	22 Jul 2026	$27.75	3/5	$49,950	$50,964	61%	71%	+$5,172	-$54,308	73.1%	$-57,517 (vs do-nothing $-46,563)
$855	12d	29 Jul 2026	$47.00	4/5	$47,000	$47,126	60%	71%	+$5,249	-$62,710	84.4%	$-63,338 (vs do-nothing $-52,384)
$855	14d	31 Jul 2026	$54.35	4/5	$46,586	$46,712	60%	71%	+$5,234	-$59,770	80.4%	$-60,398 (vs do-nothing $-49,444)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 21:37