FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $839.85

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1059.41 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $839.85 UNDERWATER $188.75 (18.4% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1059.41 (banked floor $1,034.89) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$60,643/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$629/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-113,898	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$30,321/mo

HEDGE COVER
$629/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$60,643/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.2 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
6.9 mo to earn back $419,300

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $1059.41 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $955C (14d, $21,054/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$12,776

Hole (after banked)

$101,121

was $113,898 · 11% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,958

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,059.41 → $1,034.89

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026	U10001299	$7.92	$3,958	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 57 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 15 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,249.83 (+49%) · daily UBB $1,038.69 · 1-wk expected move ±$117 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $935 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 89%, breach 11%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($30,321/mo); it brings $30,375/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $900/2d for $64,125/mo, but breach risk rises to 21% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 3 × $1090/2d (99+% survival, $900/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $60,178 (81% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 1.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-114,022 and cuts bleed by $629/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · sell 5 × $935, 89% survival, $30,375/mo (E[net] $14,144/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 2d	5 × $935	89%	$30,375	$14,144
NEXT FRIDAY	7 Aug 2026 · 9d	5 × $935	77%	$31,417	$1,706

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $2,025 with probability 87%; on the 13% touch you roll, paying $10,832 to close and taking $4,639 back from the best priced door (net cash $6,193) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 2d · E[net] $14,144/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $935 (50% normal), 89% survival, breach 11%, $30,375/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $940 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 90% (breach 11% → 10%) for $3,375/mo less (11% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $839.85 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

3 × $1090

31 Jul

29.8%

99+%hist 100%

0%hist 1%

-3pp

$60

$900

-$29,475

Sell 3 × $1090 29.8% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid)

= $60 credit for the 2d cycle → $900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1090)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1090.35)

99+%

EV / mo

+$899

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

69% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,455/mo

median; plan ~$3,030/mo after 68% keep · $9,804 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.6], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,517

Free roll-up

+$35/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,280 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $35.71/sh now → $25.26 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,090	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$7.98/sh	+$2,393 cycle +$2,453	65% surv 52%	+$11,568 SAFE cap gain +$125,465
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,105	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.28/sh	+$383 cycle +$443	68% surv 58%	+$14,544 SAFE cap gain +$128,441
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,280	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.18/sh	+$53 cycle +$113	84% surv 81%	+$71,789 SAFE cap gain +$185,686

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$900/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,296/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1090 is at/above CC-SS $1059.41: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-68,382

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $1,090.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,090)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,079.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,079-1,090.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,090.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,090.00 (4.0σ)	$60	$9,174	+$123,072	+$14,040
+2.5%	$1,117.25 (4.4σ)	$-8,115	$9,965	+$123,862	+$14,040
+5%	$1,144.50 (4.9σ)	$-16,290	$10,755	+$124,652	+$14,040

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $1090): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1030): -$3,201

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-951 (+$112,947 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,802, the opportunity cost of earning $900/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $952.50

31 Jul

13.4%

92%hist 100%

15%hist 5%

+0pp

$1,375

$20,625

-$9,750

$52,078

Sell 5 × $952.50 13.4% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $2.98 mid)

= $1,375 credit for the 2d cycle → $20,625/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $952.50)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $955.48)

93%

EV / mo

+$9,694

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$14,518/mo

median; plan ~$9,872/mo after 68% keep · $20,943 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,660

Free roll-up

+$47/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,143 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $31.21/sh now → $22.07 mid-life (likely $23.97–$43.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 285 simulated challenges: the $952 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $986 (overshoots $33.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$952	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.17/sh	+$4,586 cycle +$5,961 [+$3,644…+$5,050] · 98% credit	65% surv 52%	-$48,342 NOT cap gain +$65,555
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,098	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$8.44/sh	+$4,222 cycle +$5,597 [-$1,670…+$3,955] · 65% credit	81% surv 78%	+$28,081 SAFE cap gain +$141,979
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$973	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.13/sh	+$564 cycle +$1,939 [-$2,134…+$429] · 38% credit	70% surv 60%	-$41,702 NOT cap gain +$72,195
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,143	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.55/sh	+$275 cycle +$1,650 [-$6,654…-$106] · 22% credit	85% surv 83%	+$47,939 SAFE cap gain +$161,837
reaches SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$20,625/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$19,996/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $952.50 is $107 below CC-SS $1059.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$52,078
… as % of IC ($74,300)	70.1%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	12.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-114,010

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.69/sh (~25% of the $2.75 collected) or spot ≥ $955.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $952)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $942.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $943-955.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $955.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$952.50 (1.8σ)	$1,375	$-52,928	+$60,969	-$5,325
+2.5%	$976.31 (2.2σ)	$-10,531	$-52,237	+$61,660	-$17,231
+5%	$1,000.12 (2.6σ)	$-22,438	$-51,547	+$62,351	-$29,138
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (3.0σ)	$-36,675	$-50,721	+$63,176	-$43,375

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $952.50): -$52,078

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,828 (+$64,070 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,075, the opportunity cost of earning $20,625/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $940

31 Jul

11.9%

90%hist 100%

20%hist 5%

+1pp

$1,800

$27,000

-$3,375

$57,903

Sell 5 × $940 11.9% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $3.85 mid)

= $1,800 credit for the 2d cycle → $27,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $940)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $943.85)

91%

EV / mo

+$11,196

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

78% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$17,691/mo

median; plan ~$12,030/mo after 68% keep · $25,188 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,090

Free roll-up

+$47/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,130 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $30.80/sh now → $21.78 mid-life (likely $23.54–$44.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$18.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $940 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $973 (overshoots $33.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$940	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.25/sh	+$4,624 cycle +$6,424 [+$3,480…+$5,247] · 98% credit	65% surv 52%	-$54,491 NOT cap gain +$59,406
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,085	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$8.37/sh	+$4,187 cycle +$5,987 [-$2,142…+$4,075] · 64% credit	81% surv 78%	+$21,859 SAFE cap gain +$135,756
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$960	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.22/sh	+$609 cycle +$2,409 [-$2,210…+$560] · 41% credit	70% surv 61%	-$47,844 NOT cap gain +$66,053
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,130	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.54/sh	+$268 cycle +$2,068 [-$7,164…-$26] · 25% credit	85% surv 83%	+$41,744 SAFE cap gain +$155,642
reaches SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$27,000/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	-11%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	45% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$26,371/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $940 is $119 below CC-SS $1059.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$57,903
… as % of IC ($74,300)	77.9%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	13.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-114,022

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $943.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $940)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $930.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $931-943.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $943.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$940.00 (1.6σ)	$1,800	$-59,116	+$54,782	-$4,900
+2.5%	$963.50 (2.0σ)	$-9,950	$-58,434	+$55,463	-$16,650
+5%	$987.00 (2.4σ)	$-21,700	$-57,753	+$56,145	-$28,400
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (3.0σ)	$-42,500	$-56,546	+$57,351	-$49,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $940): -$57,903

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,653 (+$58,245 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,900, the opportunity cost of earning $27,000/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $935

31 Jul

11.3%

89%hist 99%

22%hist 13%

+2pp

$2,025

$30,375

—

$60,178

Sell 5 × $935 11.3% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $4.30 mid)

= $2,025 credit for the 2d cycle → $30,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $935)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $939.30)

90%

EV / mo

+$12,050

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

76% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$18,785/mo

median; plan ~$12,774/mo after 68% keep · $26,665 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,807

Free roll-up

+$47/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,155 @ 87% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $30.63/sh now → $21.66 mid-life (likely $23.16–$46.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 395 simulated challenges: the $935 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $968 (overshoots $32.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$935	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.28/sh	+$4,639 cycle +$6,664 [+$3,368…+$5,277] · 98% credit	65% surv 52%	-$56,897 NOT cap gain +$57,001
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,080	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$8.34/sh	+$4,172 cycle +$6,197 [-$2,730…+$4,142] · 65% credit	81% surv 78%	+$19,424 SAFE cap gain +$133,321
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$955	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.25/sh	+$627 cycle +$2,652 [-$2,455…+$601] · 43% credit	70% surv 61%	-$50,247 NOT cap gain +$63,651
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,125	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.53/sh	+$263 cycle +$2,288 [-$7,825…+$30] · 25% credit	85% surv 83%	+$39,320 SAFE cap gain +$153,217
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,155	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$3.83/sh	-$1,917 cycle +$108 [-$10,740…-$2,266] · 6% credit	87% surv 86%	+$53,009 SAFE cap gain +$166,907
budget: banked $2,025 debit $1,917 (95% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$108 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $12,156/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$30,375/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$29,746/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $935 is $124 below CC-SS $1059.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$60,178
… as % of IC ($74,300)	81.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	14.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-114,022

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.05 collected) or spot ≥ $939.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $935)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $925.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $926-939.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $939.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$935.00 (1.5σ)	$2,025	$-61,536	+$52,362	-$4,675
+2.5%	$958.37 (1.9σ)	$-9,662	$-60,858	+$53,040	-$16,362
+5%	$981.75 (2.3σ)	$-21,350	$-60,180	+$53,718	-$28,050
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (3.0σ)	$-44,775	$-58,821	+$55,076	-$51,475

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $935): -$60,178

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,928 (+$55,970 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-52,175, the opportunity cost of earning $30,375/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $900

31 Jul

7.2%

79%hist 96%

43%hist 28%

+4pp

$4,275

$64,125

+$33,750

$75,428

Sell 5 × $900 7.2% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $8.78 mid)

= $4,275 credit for the 2d cycle → $64,125/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $900)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $908.77)

82%

EV / mo

+$13,577

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

79% whole by 9mo vs 75% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$31,830/mo

median; plan ~$21,644/mo after 68% keep · $34,999 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.5], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,152

Free roll-up

+$47/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,160 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $29.49/sh now → $20.85 mid-life (likely $23.90–$46.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 819 simulated challenges: the $900 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $934 (overshoots $34.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$900	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.46/sh	+$4,730 cycle +$9,005 [+$3,416…+$4,721] · 97% credit	65% surv 52%	-$73,071 NOT cap gain +$40,827
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,015	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$14.86/sh	+$7,431 cycle +$11,706 [+$1,400…+$7,009] · 80% credit	79% surv 74%	-$9,453 NOT cap gain +$104,445
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$920	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.48/sh	+$738 cycle +$5,013 [-$2,507…+$435] · 37% credit	70% surv 61%	-$66,401 NOT cap gain +$47,497
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,090	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.43/sh	+$217 cycle +$4,492 [-$8,019…-$623] · 16% credit	85% surv 83%	+$23,008 SAFE cap gain +$136,906
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,160	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$7.91/sh	-$3,956 cycle +$319 [-$13,753…-$5,045]	90% surv 89%	+$55,866 SAFE cap gain +$169,763
budget: banked $4,275 debit $3,956 (93% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$319 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,824/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$64,125/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	+111%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$63,496/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $900 is $159 below CC-SS $1059.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$75,428
… as % of IC ($74,300)	101.5%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	18.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-114,010

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.14/sh (~25% of the $8.55 collected) or spot ≥ $908.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $900)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $891.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $891-908.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $908.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$900.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,275	$-77,801	+$36,097	-$2,425
+2.5%	$922.50 (1.3σ)	$-6,975	$-77,148	+$36,749	-$13,675
+5%	$945.00 (1.7σ)	$-18,225	$-76,496	+$37,402	-$24,925
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (3.0σ)	$-60,025	$-74,071	+$39,826	-$66,725

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $900): -$75,428

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,178 (+$40,720 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-67,425, the opportunity cost of earning $64,125/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 9d · E[net] $1,706/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $935 (50% normal), 77% survival, breach 23%, $31,417/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $972.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 23% → 16%) for $10,917/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $972.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $839.85 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

3 × $1250

7 Aug

48.8%

99%hist 100%

2%hist 1%

-4pp

$195

$650

-$30,767

Sell 3 × $1250 48.8% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.82 mid)

= $195 credit for the 9d cycle → $650/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1250)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1250.83)

99%

EV / mo

+$468

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-4pp

73% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,846/mo

median; plan ~$3,295/mo after 68% keep · $9,142 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.3], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$16,175

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,310 @ 73% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $77.12/sh now → $54.57 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$53.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,250	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$10.46/sh	-$3,139 cycle -$2,944	64% surv 52%	+$58,810 SAFE cap gain +$172,708
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,310	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.15/sh	+$45 cycle +$240	73% surv 64%	+$81,786 SAFE cap gain +$195,683

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$650/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,046/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1250 is at/above CC-SS $1059.41: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-68,391

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,250.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,250)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,237.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,238-1,250.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,250.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,250.00 (3.1σ)	$195	$61,949	+$175,847	+$62,175
+2.5%	$1,281.25 (3.3σ)	$-9,180	$62,856	+$176,753	+$62,175
+5%	$1,312.50 (3.6σ)	$-18,555	$63,762	+$177,659	+$62,175

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $1250): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1030): -$3,201

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-951 (+$112,947 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,802, the opportunity cost of earning $650/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $1020

7 Aug

21.5%

91%hist 100%

20%hist 5%

-3pp

$3,500

$11,667

-$19,750

$16,203

Sell 5 × $1020 21.5% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $7.60 mid)

= $3,500 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,667/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1020)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1027.60)

91%

EV / mo

+$4,897

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$7,771/mo

median; plan ~$5,284/mo after 68% keep · $14,071 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.8], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$18,763

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,120 @ 77% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $62.93/sh now → $44.53 mid-life (likely $40.89–$68.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 523 simulated challenges: the $1,020 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,058 (overshoots $37.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,080	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$5.46/sh	+$2,732 cycle +$6,232 [-$1,131…+$5,319] · 66% credit	73% surv 65%	+$19,458 SAFE cap gain +$133,356
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,095	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$138 cycle +$3,638 [-$4,224…+$2,659] · 42% credit	75% surv 68%	+$24,799 SAFE cap gain +$138,697
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,020	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$3.64/sh	-$1,821 cycle +$1,679 [-$4,430…+$455] · 29% credit	64% surv 53%	-$16,916 NOT cap gain +$96,981
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,120	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$6.66/sh	-$3,330 cycle +$170 [-$8,672…-$1,147] · 19% credit	77% surv 72%	+$34,556 SAFE cap gain +$148,454
budget: banked $3,500 debit $3,330 (95% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $31,554/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,667/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	-62%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,037/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1020 is $39 below CC-SS $1059.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,203
… as % of IC ($74,300)	21.8%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	3.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-114,198

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.75/sh (~25% of the $7.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,027.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,020)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,009.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,010-1,027.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,027.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,020.00 (1.4σ)	$3,500	$-15,096	+$98,802	-$3,200
+2.5%	$1,045.50 (1.6σ)	$-9,250	$-14,356	+$99,541	-$8,200
+5%	$1,071.00 (1.7σ)	$-22,000	$-13,617	+$100,281	-$8,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1020): -$16,203

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,953 (+$99,945 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,200, the opportunity cost of earning $11,667/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $972.50

7 Aug

15.8%

84%hist 99%

34%hist 18%

-0pp

$6,150

$20,500

-$10,917

$37,303

Sell 5 × $972.50 15.8% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $12.98 mid)

= $6,150 credit for the 9d cycle → $20,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $972.50)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $985.48)

86%

EV / mo

+$4,852

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-0pp

74% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$12,277/mo

median; plan ~$8,349/mo after 68% keep · $22,517 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.4], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$15,076

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,098 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $60.00/sh now → $42.45 mid-life (likely $41.24–$67.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$30.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 815 simulated challenges: the $972 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,004 (overshoots $31.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,033	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.08/sh	+$3,040 cycle +$9,190 [-$1,169…+$4,910] · 65% credit	74% surv 66%	-$2,711 NOT cap gain +$111,186
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,048	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.96/sh	+$480 cycle +$6,630 [-$4,162…+$2,096] · 38% credit	75% surv 68%	+$2,664 SAFE cap gain +$116,562
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$972	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$2.51/sh	-$1,254 cycle +$4,896 [-$4,115…+$234] · 27% credit	64% surv 53%	-$38,827 NOT cap gain +$75,070
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,098	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$12.10/sh	-$6,049 cycle +$101 [-$12,346…-$5,098] · 10% credit	80% surv 76%	+$22,584 SAFE cap gain +$136,482
budget: banked $6,150 debit $6,049 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$101 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $25,294/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$20,500/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$19,871/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $972.50 is $87 below CC-SS $1059.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$37,303
… as % of IC ($74,300)	50.2%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	8.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-114,235

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.08/sh (~25% of the $12.30 collected) or spot ≥ $985.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $972)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $962.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $963-985.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $985.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$972.50 (1.0σ)	$6,150	$-37,573	+$76,324	-$550
+2.5%	$996.81 (1.2σ)	$-6,006	$-36,868	+$77,030	-$12,706
+5%	$1,021.12 (1.4σ)	$-18,162	$-36,163	+$77,735	-$24,862
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.4σ)	$-21,900	$-35,946	+$77,951	-$28,600

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $972.50): -$37,303

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,053 (+$78,845 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,300, the opportunity cost of earning $20,500/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $935

7 Aug

11.3%

77%hist 96%

49%hist 28%

+2pp

$9,425

$31,417

—

$52,778

Sell 5 × $935 11.3% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $19.68 mid)

= $9,425 credit for the 9d cycle → $31,417/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $935)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $954.67)

81%

EV / mo

+$5,212

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

79% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$20,647/mo

median; plan ~$14,040/mo after 68% keep · $26,097 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.9], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

37%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$10,983

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,095 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $57.69/sh now → $40.82 mid-life (likely $44.03–$66.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $18.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,115 simulated challenges: the $935 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $966 (overshoots $30.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$980	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$11.70/sh	+$5,851 cycle +$15,276 [+$1,771…+$6,854] · 89% credit	72% surv 63%	-$24,398 NOT cap gain +$89,500
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,010	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.39/sh	+$696 cycle +$10,121 [-$4,422…+$1,010] · 30% credit	75% surv 69%	-$13,683 NOT cap gain +$100,215
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$935	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.68/sh	-$840 cycle +$8,585 [-$3,969…-$202] · 24% credit	64% surv 53%	-$54,975 NOT cap gain +$58,922
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,095	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$18.45/sh	-$9,223 cycle +$202 [-$16,932…-$9,982] · 1% credit	84% surv 81%	+$21,364 SAFE cap gain +$135,261
budget: banked $9,425 debit $9,223 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$202 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $18,641/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$31,417/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30,787/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $935 is $124 below CC-SS $1059.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$52,778
… as % of IC ($74,300)	71.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	12.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-114,310

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.71/sh (~25% of the $18.85 collected) or spot ≥ $954.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $935)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $925.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $926-954.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $954.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$935.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$9,425	$-54,136	+$59,762	+$2,725
+2.5%	$958.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,262	$-53,458	+$60,440	-$8,962
+5%	$981.75 (1.1σ)	$-13,950	$-52,780	+$61,118	-$20,650
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.4σ)	$-37,375	$-51,421	+$62,476	-$44,075

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $935): -$52,778

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,528 (+$63,370 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,775, the opportunity cost of earning $31,417/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $870

7 Aug

3.6%

62%hist 80%

82%hist 80%

+4pp

$18,700

$62,333

+$30,917

$76,003

Sell 5 × $870 3.6% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $38.35 mid)

= $18,700 credit for the 9d cycle → $62,333/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $870)

62%

Breach risk

38%

POP (stays ≤ $908.35)

71%

EV / mo

+$3,874

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

80% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$28,897/mo

median; plan ~$19,650/mo after 68% keep · $36,429 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-1.9], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

67%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$289

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,100 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $53.68/sh now → $37.98 mid-life (likely $49.97–$69.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $37.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,019 simulated challenges: the $870 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $900 (overshoots $30.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$915	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.01/sh	+$6,007 cycle +$24,707 [+$869…+$3,930] · 84% credit	73% surv 64%	-$49,352 NOT cap gain +$64,546
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$870	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.38/sh	-$192 cycle +$18,508 [-$4,162…-$1,773] · 12% credit	64% surv 53%	-$79,437 NOT cap gain +$34,460
Max even-money escape in the band	~$950	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.46/sh	+$228 cycle +$18,928 [-$6,331…-$2,503] · 12% credit	76% surv 70%	-$36,616 NOT cap gain +$77,282
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,100	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$26.21/sh	-$13,105 cycle +$5,595 [-$24,520…-$17,538]	90% surv 89%	+$29,401 SAFE cap gain +$143,299
budget: banked $18,700 debit $13,105 (70% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,595 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,806/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$62,333/mo
vs 50% target ($30,321/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($60,643/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$61,704/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $870 is $189 below CC-SS $1059.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$76,003
… as % of IC ($74,300)	102.3%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	18.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-114,372

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.35/sh (~25% of the $37.40 collected) or spot ≥ $908.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $870)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $861.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $861-908.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $908.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$870.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$18,700	$-79,246	+$34,652	+$12,000
+2.5%	$891.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,825	$-78,615	+$35,283	+$1,125
+5%	$913.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-3,050	$-77,984	+$35,913	-$9,750
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.4σ)	$-60,600	$-74,646	+$39,251	-$67,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1059.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,898

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,148

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $870): -$76,003

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,753 (+$40,145 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,753 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-68,000, the opportunity cost of earning $62,333/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (157 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 157 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.058 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$116,148 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,753

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$935	2d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$30,375	$29,746	89%	90%	+$12,050	-$60,178	81.0%	$-57,928 (vs do-nothing $-52,175)
$930	2d	31 Jul 2026	$4.45	5/5	$33,375	$32,746	88%	89%	+$12,128	-$62,478	84.1%	$-60,228 (vs do-nothing $-54,475)
$925	2d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/5	$37,500	$36,871	87%	88%	+$12,874	-$64,703	87.1%	$-62,453 (vs do-nothing $-56,700)
$920	2d	31 Jul 2026	$5.60	4/5	$33,600	$35,483	86%	87%	+$10,784	-$53,522	72.0%	$-52,873 (vs do-nothing $-47,120)
$915	2d	31 Jul 2026	$6.20	4/5	$37,200	$39,083	84%	86%	+$10,804	-$55,282	74.4%	$-54,633 (vs do-nothing $-48,880)
$910	2d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	3/5	$31,050	$35,446	83%	85%	+$8,181	-$42,752	57.5%	$-43,703 (vs do-nothing $-37,950)
$905	2d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/5	$34,650	$39,046	81%	83%	+$8,283	-$44,012	59.2%	$-44,963 (vs do-nothing $-39,210)
$915	5d	3 Aug 2026	$10.40	5/5	$31,200	$30,571	79%	82%	+$5,992	-$67,003	90.2%	$-64,753 (vs do-nothing $-59,000)
$900	2d	31 Jul 2026	$8.55	3/5	$38,475	$42,871	79%	82%	+$8,146	-$45,257	60.9%	$-46,208 (vs do-nothing $-40,455)
$910	5d	3 Aug 2026	$11.35	5/5	$34,050	$33,421	78%	81%	+$6,151	-$69,028	92.9%	$-66,778 (vs do-nothing $-61,025)
$895	2d	31 Jul 2026	$9.35	3/5	$42,075	$46,471	77%	81%	+$7,286	-$46,517	62.6%	$-47,468 (vs do-nothing $-41,715)
$935	9d	7 Aug 2026	$18.85	5/5	$31,417	$30,787	77%	81%	+$5,212	-$52,778	71.0%	$-50,528 (vs do-nothing $-44,775)
$905	5d	3 Aug 2026	$12.30	5/5	$36,900	$36,271	76%	80%	+$6,060	-$71,053	95.6%	$-68,803 (vs do-nothing $-63,050)

Show 144 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 144.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$920	7d	5 Aug 2026	$14.90	5/5	$31,929	$31,299	76%	80%	+$3,087	-$62,253	83.8%	$-60,003 (vs do-nothing $-54,250)
$930	9d	7 Aug 2026	$19.85	5/5	$33,083	$32,454	76%	80%	+$5,091	-$54,778	73.7%	$-52,528 (vs do-nothing $-46,775)
$890	2d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$31,500	$38,408	75%	79%	+$4,982	-$31,781	42.8%	$-34,333 (vs do-nothing $-28,580)
$915	7d	5 Aug 2026	$15.40	5/5	$33,000	$32,371	75%	79%	+$1,892	-$64,503	86.8%	$-62,253 (vs do-nothing $-56,500)
$900	5d	3 Aug 2026	$13.35	4/5	$32,040	$33,923	75%	79%	+$4,803	-$58,422	78.6%	$-57,773 (vs do-nothing $-52,020)
$925	9d	7 Aug 2026	$21.15	5/5	$35,250	$34,621	75%	79%	+$5,370	-$56,628	76.2%	$-54,378 (vs do-nothing $-48,625)
$910	7d	5 Aug 2026	$16.15	5/5	$34,607	$33,978	74%	78%	+$1,078	-$66,628	89.7%	$-64,378 (vs do-nothing $-58,625)
$920	9d	7 Aug 2026	$22.15	5/5	$36,917	$36,287	74%	78%	+$5,044	-$58,628	78.9%	$-56,378 (vs do-nothing $-50,625)
$895	5d	3 Aug 2026	$14.65	4/5	$35,160	$37,043	73%	78%	+$5,134	-$59,902	80.6%	$-59,253 (vs do-nothing $-53,500)
$885	2d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$34,950	$41,858	73%	78%	+$4,739	-$32,551	43.8%	$-35,103 (vs do-nothing $-29,350)
$905	7d	5 Aug 2026	$17.70	4/5	$30,343	$32,226	73%	78%	+$2,231	-$54,682	73.6%	$-54,033 (vs do-nothing $-48,280)
$915	9d	7 Aug 2026	$23.50	4/5	$31,333	$33,216	73%	78%	+$4,155	-$48,362	65.1%	$-47,713 (vs do-nothing $-41,960)
$915	12d	10 Aug 2026	$24.75	5/5	$30,938	$30,308	72%	77%	+$1,764	-$59,828	80.5%	$-57,578 (vs do-nothing $-51,825)
$900	7d	5 Aug 2026	$18.90	4/5	$32,400	$34,283	72%	77%	+$2,715	-$56,202	75.6%	$-55,553 (vs do-nothing $-49,800)
$890	5d	3 Aug 2026	$15.55	4/5	$37,320	$39,203	72%	77%	+$4,268	-$61,542	82.8%	$-60,893 (vs do-nothing $-55,140)
$910	9d	7 Aug 2026	$24.80	4/5	$33,067	$34,950	71%	77%	+$4,119	-$49,842	67.1%	$-49,193 (vs do-nothing $-43,440)
$925	16d	14 Aug 2026	$33.05	5/5	$30,984	$30,355	71%	77%	+$3,639	-$50,678	68.2%	$-48,428 (vs do-nothing $-42,675)
$880	2d	31 Jul 2026	$12.85	2/5	$38,550	$45,458	71%	76%	+$4,267	-$33,311	44.8%	$-35,863 (vs do-nothing $-30,110)
$910	12d	10 Aug 2026	$25.90	5/5	$32,375	$31,746	71%	76%	+$1,457	-$61,753	83.1%	$-59,503 (vs do-nothing $-53,750)
$920	16d	14 Aug 2026	$34.45	5/5	$32,297	$31,667	70%	76%	+$3,689	-$52,478	70.6%	$-50,228 (vs do-nothing $-44,475)
$915	14d	12 Aug 2026	$28.55	5/5	$30,589	$29,960	70%	76%	+$652	-$57,928	78.0%	$-55,678 (vs do-nothing $-49,925)
$905	9d	7 Aug 2026	$26.25	4/5	$35,000	$36,883	70%	76%	+$4,191	-$51,262	69.0%	$-50,613 (vs do-nothing $-44,860)
$895	7d	5 Aug 2026	$20.20	4/5	$34,629	$36,512	70%	76%	+$2,258	-$57,682	77.6%	$-57,033 (vs do-nothing $-51,280)
$885	5d	3 Aug 2026	$16.90	3/5	$30,420	$34,816	70%	76%	+$3,176	-$47,252	63.6%	$-48,203 (vs do-nothing $-42,450)
$915	16d	14 Aug 2026	$35.85	5/5	$33,609	$32,980	70%	76%	+$4,814	-$54,278	73.1%	$-52,028 (vs do-nothing $-46,275)
$905	12d	10 Aug 2026	$27.40	5/5	$34,250	$33,621	69%	76%	+$1,506	-$63,503	85.5%	$-61,253 (vs do-nothing $-55,500)
$910	14d	12 Aug 2026	$30.40	5/5	$32,571	$31,942	69%	76%	+$1,076	-$59,503	80.1%	$-57,253 (vs do-nothing $-51,500)
$900	9d	7 Aug 2026	$27.70	4/5	$36,933	$38,816	69%	75%	+$4,169	-$52,682	70.9%	$-52,033 (vs do-nothing $-46,280)
$910	16d	14 Aug 2026	$37.35	5/5	$35,016	$34,386	69%	76%	+$4,831	-$56,028	75.4%	$-53,778 (vs do-nothing $-48,025)
$875	2d	31 Jul 2026	$14.20	2/5	$42,600	$49,508	69%	75%	+$3,861	-$34,041	45.8%	$-36,593 (vs do-nothing $-30,840)
$890	7d	5 Aug 2026	$21.00	4/5	$36,000	$37,883	69%	75%	+$926	-$59,362	79.9%	$-58,713 (vs do-nothing $-52,960)
$905	14d	12 Aug 2026	$32.10	5/5	$34,393	$33,763	68%	75%	+$1,280	-$61,153	82.3%	$-58,903 (vs do-nothing $-53,150)
$900	12d	10 Aug 2026	$28.55	5/5	$35,688	$35,058	68%	75%	+$1,034	-$65,428	88.1%	$-63,178 (vs do-nothing $-57,425)
$880	5d	3 Aug 2026	$18.25	3/5	$32,850	$37,246	68%	75%	+$2,958	-$48,347	65.1%	$-49,298 (vs do-nothing $-43,545)
$895	9d	7 Aug 2026	$29.15	4/5	$38,867	$40,750	68%	75%	+$4,050	-$54,102	72.8%	$-53,453 (vs do-nothing $-47,700)
$905	16d	14 Aug 2026	$38.85	5/5	$36,422	$35,792	68%	75%	+$4,793	-$57,778	77.8%	$-55,528 (vs do-nothing $-49,775)
$910	23d	21 Aug 2026	$47.45	5/5	$30,946	$30,316	68%	75%	+$3,893	-$50,978	68.6%	$-48,728 (vs do-nothing $-42,975)
$900	14d	12 Aug 2026	$33.90	5/5	$36,321	$35,692	67%	74%	+$1,529	-$62,753	84.5%	$-60,503 (vs do-nothing $-54,750)
$885	7d	5 Aug 2026	$22.75	4/5	$39,000	$40,883	67%	74%	+$1,351	-$60,662	81.6%	$-60,013 (vs do-nothing $-54,260)
$895	12d	10 Aug 2026	$30.25	5/5	$37,812	$37,183	67%	74%	+$1,165	-$67,078	90.3%	$-64,828 (vs do-nothing $-59,075)
$900	16d	14 Aug 2026	$40.45	4/5	$30,338	$32,221	67%	74%	+$3,835	-$47,582	64.0%	$-46,933 (vs do-nothing $-41,180)
$890	9d	7 Aug 2026	$30.70	3/5	$30,700	$35,096	67%	74%	+$2,974	-$41,612	56.0%	$-42,563 (vs do-nothing $-36,810)
$905	23d	21 Aug 2026	$49.15	5/5	$32,054	$31,425	67%	74%	+$3,936	-$52,628	70.8%	$-50,378 (vs do-nothing $-44,625)
$870	2d	31 Jul 2026	$15.50	2/5	$46,500	$53,408	66%	73%	+$2,918	-$34,781	46.8%	$-37,333 (vs do-nothing $-31,580)
$895	14d	12 Aug 2026	$35.10	5/5	$37,607	$36,978	66%	74%	+$1,072	-$64,653	87.0%	$-62,403 (vs do-nothing $-56,650)
$875	5d	3 Aug 2026	$19.70	3/5	$35,460	$39,856	66%	73%	+$2,718	-$49,412	66.5%	$-50,363 (vs do-nothing $-44,610)
$890	12d	10 Aug 2026	$31.60	4/5	$31,600	$33,483	66%	74%	+$617	-$55,122	74.2%	$-54,473 (vs do-nothing $-48,720)
$895	16d	14 Aug 2026	$42.05	4/5	$31,538	$33,421	66%	74%	+$3,789	-$48,942	65.9%	$-48,293 (vs do-nothing $-42,540)
$900	23d	21 Aug 2026	$50.95	5/5	$33,228	$32,599	66%	74%	+$4,011	-$54,228	73.0%	$-51,978 (vs do-nothing $-46,225)
$880	7d	5 Aug 2026	$23.85	3/5	$30,664	$35,060	66%	73%	$-340	-$46,667	62.8%	$-47,618 (vs do-nothing $-41,865)
$885	9d	7 Aug 2026	$32.35	3/5	$32,350	$36,746	65%	73%	+$2,935	-$42,617	57.4%	$-43,568 (vs do-nothing $-37,815)
$890	14d	12 Aug 2026	$37.10	4/5	$31,800	$33,683	65%	73%	+$1,126	-$52,922	71.2%	$-52,273 (vs do-nothing $-46,520)
$895	23d	21 Aug 2026	$52.40	5/5	$34,174	$33,545	65%	73%	+$3,823	-$56,003	75.4%	$-53,753 (vs do-nothing $-48,000)
$890	16d	14 Aug 2026	$43.75	4/5	$32,812	$34,696	65%	73%	+$3,773	-$50,262	67.6%	$-49,613 (vs do-nothing $-43,860)
$885	12d	10 Aug 2026	$33.70	4/5	$33,700	$35,583	65%	73%	+$982	-$56,282	75.8%	$-55,633 (vs do-nothing $-49,880)
$870	5d	3 Aug 2026	$21.20	3/5	$38,160	$42,556	64%	72%	+$2,360	-$50,462	67.9%	$-51,413 (vs do-nothing $-45,660)
$885	14d	12 Aug 2026	$38.30	4/5	$32,829	$34,712	64%	73%	+$656	-$54,442	73.3%	$-53,793 (vs do-nothing $-48,040)
$880	9d	7 Aug 2026	$33.90	3/5	$33,900	$38,296	64%	73%	+$3,000	-$43,652	58.8%	$-44,603 (vs do-nothing $-38,850)
$865	2d	31 Jul 2026	$17.10	2/5	$51,300	$58,208	64%	72%	+$2,491	-$35,461	47.7%	$-38,013 (vs do-nothing $-32,260)
$890	23d	21 Aug 2026	$54.15	5/5	$35,315	$34,686	64%	73%	+$3,796	-$57,628	77.6%	$-55,378 (vs do-nothing $-49,625)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-29 21:41