FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $752.99

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1070.67 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $752.99 UNDERWATER $275.61 (26.8% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1070.67 (banked floor $1,046.18) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$54,634/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$720/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-165,315	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$27,317/mo

HEDGE COVER
$720/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$54,634/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $419,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1070.67 (probe: $1070C 15d) brings only $3,200/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$12,776

Hole (after banked)

$152,539

was $165,315 · 8% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,958

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,070.67 → $1,046.18

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026	U10001299	$7.92	$3,958	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B -3 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,243.85 (+65%) · daily UBB $1,063.67 · 1-wk expected move ±$111 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $850 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($27,317/mo); it brings $28,781/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $795/8d for $55,312/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $1250/8d (99+% survival, $730/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $102,658 (138% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-165,590 and cuts bleed by $720/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 5 × $850, 80% survival, $28,781/mo (E[net] $2,059/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	5 × $850	80%	$28,781	$2,059

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $7,675 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $19,451 to close and taking $4,599 back from the best priced door (net cash $14,851) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $2,059/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $850 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $28,781/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $880 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 20% → 15%) for $9,000/mo less (31% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $880 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $752.99 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $1250

7 Aug

66.0%

99+%hist 100%

0%hist 1%

-1pp

$195

$730

-$28,051

Sell 5 × $1250 66.0% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.41 mid)

= $195 credit for the 8d cycle → $730/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1250)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1250.41)

99+%

EV / mo

+$726

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-590/mo

median; plan ~$-401/mo after 68% keep · $-2,475 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$28,409

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,277 @ 69% POP

58% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $80.86/sh now → $57.21 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$56.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,250	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$25.92/sh	-$12,958 cycle -$12,763	61% surv 52%	+$85,089 SAFE cap gain +$250,404
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,277	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.54/sh	+$1,269 cycle +$1,464	69% surv 58%	+$113,617 SAFE cap gain +$278,932

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$730/mo
vs 50% target ($27,317/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($54,634/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1250 is at/above CC-SS $1070.67: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-165,325

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $1,250.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,250)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,237.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,238-1,250.41	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,250.41	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,250.00 (4.2σ)	$195	$98,047	+$263,362	+$107,920
+2.5%	$1,281.25 (4.4σ)	$-15,430	$98,968	+$264,283	+$107,920
+5%	$1,312.50 (4.7σ)	$-31,055	$99,890	+$265,205	+$107,920

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1070.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,315

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$168,209

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1250): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,894 (+$168,209 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$18,058, the opportunity cost of earning $730/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $915

7 Aug

21.5%

90%hist 100%

21%hist 13%

+2pp

$3,375

$12,656

-$16,125

$74,458

Sell 5 × $915 21.5% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $7.22 mid)

= $3,375 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,656/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $915)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $922.23)

91%

EV / mo

+$5,051

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,885/mo

median; plan ~$4,682/mo after 68% keep · $31,690 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$17,563

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$997 @ 75% POP

69% survival

Buyback gross: $59.19/sh now → $41.88 mid-life (likely $33.99–$60.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 429 simulated challenges: the $915 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $943 (overshoots $28.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$962	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.05/sh	+$3,027 cycle +$6,402 [-$1,173…+$6,981] · 68% credit	71% surv 63%	-$48,237 NOT cap gain +$117,078
Max even-money escape in the band	~$972	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.82/sh	+$912 cycle +$4,287 [-$3,644…+$4,826] · 51% credit	72% surv 65%	-$45,056 NOT cap gain +$120,259
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$997	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$5.04/sh	-$2,518 cycle +$857 [-$7,668…+$1,384] · 30% credit	75% surv 69%	-$35,250 NOT cap gain +$130,065
budget: banked $3,375 debit $2,518 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$857 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $30,700/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$915	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$13.58/sh	-$6,789 cycle -$3,414 [-$11,838…-$2,878] · 10% credit	61% surv 53%	-$82,945 NOT cap gain +$82,370

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$12,656/mo
vs 50% target ($27,317/mo)	-54%
vs normal income ($54,634/mo)	23% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,936/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $915 is $156 below CC-SS $1070.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$74,458
… as % of IC ($74,300)	100.2%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-165,553

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.69/sh (~25% of the $6.75 collected) or spot ≥ $922.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $915)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $905.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $906-922.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $922.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$915.00 (1.4σ)	$3,375	$-76,156	+$89,159	+$1,100
+2.5%	$937.87 (1.6σ)	$-8,062	$-75,481	+$89,834	-$10,337
+5%	$960.75 (1.7σ)	$-19,500	$-74,806	+$90,509	-$21,775
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.3σ)	$-53,425	$-72,805	+$92,510	-$55,700

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1070.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,315

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$168,209

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $915): -$74,458

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,564 (+$93,751 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,400, the opportunity cost of earning $12,656/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $880

7 Aug

16.9%

85%hist 99%

31%hist 18%

+2pp

$5,275

$19,781

-$9,000

$90,058

Sell 5 × $880 16.9% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $11.07 mid)

= $5,275 credit for the 8d cycle → $19,781/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $880)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $891.08)

87%

EV / mo

+$6,314

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$9,974/mo

median; plan ~$6,782/mo after 68% keep · $36,857 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$14,862

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$982 @ 77% POP

73% survival

Buyback gross: $56.93/sh now → $40.27 mid-life (likely $38.65–$65.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$29.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 659 simulated challenges: the $880 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $911 (overshoots $31.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$927	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.45/sh	+$3,223 cycle +$8,498 [-$1,920…+$4,964] · 60% credit	71% surv 64%	-$64,674 NOT cap gain +$100,641
Max even-money escape in the band	~$937	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.27/sh	+$1,137 cycle +$6,412 [-$4,561…+$2,774] · 43% credit	72% surv 65%	-$61,465 NOT cap gain +$103,850
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$982	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$9.70/sh	-$4,851 cycle +$424 [-$12,309…-$3,693] · 10% credit	77% surv 73%	-$43,625 NOT cap gain +$121,690
budget: banked $5,275 debit $4,851 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$424 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $25,477/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$880	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$12.52/sh	-$6,259 cycle -$984 [-$12,676…-$4,826] · 6% credit	61% surv 53%	-$99,047 NOT cap gain +$66,268

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$19,781/mo
vs 50% target ($27,317/mo)	-28%
vs normal income ($54,634/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$19,061/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $880 is $191 below CC-SS $1070.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$90,058
… as % of IC ($74,300)	121.2%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	21.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-165,578

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.64/sh (~25% of the $10.55 collected) or spot ≥ $891.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $880)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $871.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $871-891.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $891.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$880.00 (1.1σ)	$5,275	$-92,788	+$72,527	+$3,000
+2.5%	$902.00 (1.3σ)	$-5,725	$-92,139	+$73,176	-$8,000
+5%	$924.00 (1.4σ)	$-16,725	$-91,490	+$73,825	-$19,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.3σ)	$-69,025	$-88,405	+$76,910	-$71,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1070.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,315

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$168,209

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $880): -$90,058

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-87,164 (+$78,151 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,000, the opportunity cost of earning $19,781/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $850

7 Aug

12.9%

80%hist 96%

43%hist 28%

+5pp

$7,675

$28,781

—

$102,658

Sell 5 × $850 12.9% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $15.90 mid)

= $7,675 credit for the 8d cycle → $28,781/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $850)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $865.90)

83%

EV / mo

+$7,232

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

65% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$12,955/mo

median; plan ~$8,809/mo after 68% keep · $46,598 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$11,776

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$977 @ 80% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $54.99/sh now → $38.90 mid-life (likely $40.57–$64.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $15.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 949 simulated challenges: the $850 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $878 (overshoots $28.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$887	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$9.20/sh	+$4,599 cycle +$12,274 [-$141…+$5,780] · 74% credit	72% surv 62%	-$82,077 NOT cap gain +$83,238
Max even-money escape in the band	~$907	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.59/sh	+$1,296 cycle +$8,971 [-$4,806…+$1,736] · 35% credit	73% surv 66%	-$74,791 NOT cap gain +$90,524
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$850	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$11.64/sh	-$5,822 cycle +$1,853 [-$12,587…-$5,620] · 6% credit	61% surv 53%	-$112,095 NOT cap gain +$53,220
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$977	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$14.72/sh	-$7,361 cycle +$314 [-$15,652…-$7,584] · 3% credit	80% surv 77%	-$46,382 NOT cap gain +$118,933
budget: banked $7,675 debit $7,361 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$314 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $20,150/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$28,781/mo
vs 50% target ($27,317/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($54,634/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$28,061/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $850 is $221 below CC-SS $1070.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$102,658
… as % of IC ($74,300)	138.2%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	24.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-165,590

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.84/sh (~25% of the $15.35 collected) or spot ≥ $865.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $850)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $841.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $842-865.90	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $865.90	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$850.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,675	$-106,273	+$59,042	+$5,400
+2.5%	$871.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,950	$-105,646	+$59,669	-$5,225
+5%	$892.50 (1.2σ)	$-13,575	$-105,019	+$60,296	-$15,850
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.3σ)	$-81,625	$-101,005	+$64,310	-$83,900

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1070.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,315

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$168,209

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $850): -$102,658

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-99,764 (+$65,551 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-84,600, the opportunity cost of earning $28,781/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $795

7 Aug

5.6%

66%hist 80%

72%hist 59%

+10pp

$14,750

$55,312

+$26,531

$123,083

Sell 5 × $795 5.6% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $30.07 mid)

= $14,750 credit for the 8d cycle → $55,312/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $795)

66%

Breach risk

34%

POP (stays ≤ $825.08)

74%

EV / mo

+$8,011

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

73% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$20,569/mo

median; plan ~$13,987/mo after 68% keep · $61,108 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.7], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,442

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,037 @ 90% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $51.43/sh now → $36.38 mid-life (likely $45.30–$64.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $29.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,680 simulated challenges: the $795 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $821 (overshoots $26.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$832	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$9.63/sh	+$4,814 cycle +$19,564 [-$860…+$3,175] · 64% credit	72% surv 63%	-$103,910 NOT cap gain +$61,405
Max even-money escape in the band	~$852	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$3.02/sh	+$1,508 cycle +$16,258 [-$5,563…-$779] · 20% credit	73% surv 66%	-$96,626 NOT cap gain +$68,689
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$795	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$10.12/sh	-$5,061 cycle +$9,689 [-$12,880…-$7,587] · 3% credit	61% surv 53%	-$133,381 NOT cap gain +$31,934
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,037	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$28.00/sh	-$13,999 cycle +$751 [-$25,664…-$17,708]	90% surv 90%	-$14,176 NOT cap gain +$151,139
budget: banked $14,750 debit $13,999 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$751 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,988/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$55,312/mo
vs 50% target ($27,317/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($54,634/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$54,592/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $795 is $276 below CC-SS $1070.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$123,083
… as % of IC ($74,300)	165.7%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	29.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-165,603

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $7.38/sh (~25% of the $29.50 collected) or spot ≥ $825.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $795)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $787.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $787-825.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $825.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$795.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$14,750	$-128,321	+$36,994	+$12,475
+2.5%	$814.87 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,813	$-127,734	+$37,581	+$2,538
+5%	$834.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-5,125	$-127,148	+$38,167	-$7,400
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.3σ)	$-102,050	$-121,430	+$43,885	-$104,325

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1070.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,315

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$168,209

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $795): -$123,083

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-120,189 (+$45,126 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-105,025, the opportunity cost of earning $55,312/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (99 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 99 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.059 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$168,209 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-15,164

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$835	4d	3 Aug 2026	$7.35	5/5	$27,562	$26,842	84%	86%	+$9,580	-$114,158	153.6%	$-111,264 (vs do-nothing $-96,100)
$830	4d	3 Aug 2026	$8.15	5/5	$30,562	$29,842	83%	85%	+$10,160	-$116,258	156.5%	$-113,364 (vs do-nothing $-98,200)
$825	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.00	5/5	$33,750	$33,030	81%	84%	+$10,646	-$118,333	159.3%	$-115,439 (vs do-nothing $-100,275)
$840	6d	5 Aug 2026	$11.05	5/5	$27,625	$26,905	81%	84%	+$6,295	-$109,808	147.8%	$-106,914 (vs do-nothing $-91,750)
$820	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.70	4/5	$29,100	$29,290	80%	83%	+$8,212	-$96,386	129.7%	$-97,104 (vs do-nothing $-81,940)
$850	8d	7 Aug 2026	$15.35	5/5	$28,781	$28,061	80%	83%	+$7,232	-$102,658	138.2%	$-99,764 (vs do-nothing $-84,600)
$835	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.05	5/5	$30,125	$29,405	80%	83%	+$6,728	-$111,808	150.5%	$-108,914 (vs do-nothing $-93,750)
$845	8d	7 Aug 2026	$16.25	5/5	$30,469	$29,749	79%	82%	+$7,220	-$104,708	140.9%	$-101,814 (vs do-nothing $-86,650)
$815	4d	3 Aug 2026	$10.90	4/5	$32,700	$32,890	78%	82%	+$9,143	-$97,906	131.8%	$-98,624 (vs do-nothing $-83,460)
$830	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.85	5/5	$32,125	$31,405	78%	82%	+$6,487	-$113,908	153.3%	$-111,014 (vs do-nothing $-95,850)
$840	8d	7 Aug 2026	$17.15	5/5	$32,156	$31,436	77%	81%	+$7,095	-$106,758	143.7%	$-103,864 (vs do-nothing $-88,700)
$825	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.85	5/5	$32,125	$31,405	77%	81%	+$4,062	-$116,408	156.7%	$-113,514 (vs do-nothing $-98,350)
$810	4d	3 Aug 2026	$11.80	4/5	$35,400	$35,590	77%	81%	+$8,893	-$99,546	134.0%	$-100,264 (vs do-nothing $-85,100)

Show 86 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 86.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$835	8d	7 Aug 2026	$17.60	5/5	$33,000	$32,280	76%	80%	+$6,007	-$109,033	146.7%	$-106,139 (vs do-nothing $-90,975)
$820	6d	5 Aug 2026	$14.60	4/5	$29,200	$29,390	76%	80%	+$4,655	-$94,426	127.1%	$-95,144 (vs do-nothing $-79,980)
$830	8d	7 Aug 2026	$18.30	4/5	$27,450	$27,640	75%	79%	+$4,211	-$88,946	119.7%	$-89,664 (vs do-nothing $-74,500)
$805	4d	3 Aug 2026	$13.00	3/5	$29,250	$30,350	75%	79%	+$6,931	-$75,800	102.0%	$-80,129 (vs do-nothing $-64,965)
$815	6d	5 Aug 2026	$16.10	4/5	$32,200	$32,390	74%	79%	+$5,397	-$95,826	129.0%	$-96,544 (vs do-nothing $-81,380)
$825	8d	7 Aug 2026	$20.55	4/5	$30,825	$31,015	74%	79%	+$5,839	-$90,046	121.2%	$-90,764 (vs do-nothing $-75,600)
$800	4d	3 Aug 2026	$14.10	3/5	$31,725	$32,825	73%	78%	+$6,729	-$76,970	103.6%	$-81,299 (vs do-nothing $-66,135)
$835	15d	14 Aug 2026	$28.45	5/5	$28,450	$27,730	73%	78%	+$5,149	-$103,608	139.4%	$-100,714 (vs do-nothing $-85,550)
$820	8d	7 Aug 2026	$21.05	4/5	$31,575	$31,765	73%	78%	+$4,735	-$91,846	123.6%	$-92,564 (vs do-nothing $-77,400)
$830	13d	12 Aug 2026	$25.15	5/5	$29,019	$28,299	73%	78%	+$3,914	-$107,758	145.0%	$-104,864 (vs do-nothing $-89,700)
$810	6d	5 Aug 2026	$17.25	4/5	$34,500	$34,690	73%	78%	+$5,268	-$97,366	131.0%	$-98,084 (vs do-nothing $-82,920)
$830	15d	14 Aug 2026	$28.35	5/5	$28,350	$27,630	72%	78%	+$3,758	-$106,158	142.9%	$-103,264 (vs do-nothing $-88,100)
$825	13d	12 Aug 2026	$26.45	5/5	$30,519	$29,799	72%	78%	+$3,903	-$109,608	147.5%	$-106,714 (vs do-nothing $-91,550)
$815	8d	7 Aug 2026	$23.25	4/5	$34,875	$35,065	71%	77%	+$6,070	-$92,966	125.1%	$-93,684 (vs do-nothing $-78,520)
$805	6d	5 Aug 2026	$18.55	3/5	$27,825	$28,925	71%	77%	+$3,945	-$74,135	99.8%	$-78,464 (vs do-nothing $-63,300)
$795	4d	3 Aug 2026	$15.10	3/5	$33,975	$35,075	71%	77%	+$6,049	-$78,170	105.2%	$-82,499 (vs do-nothing $-67,335)
$825	15d	14 Aug 2026	$31.00	5/5	$31,000	$30,280	71%	77%	+$5,057	-$107,333	144.5%	$-104,439 (vs do-nothing $-89,275)
$820	13d	12 Aug 2026	$27.55	5/5	$31,788	$31,068	71%	77%	+$3,590	-$111,558	150.1%	$-108,664 (vs do-nothing $-93,500)
$810	8d	7 Aug 2026	$24.10	4/5	$36,150	$36,340	70%	76%	+$5,266	-$94,626	127.4%	$-95,344 (vs do-nothing $-80,180)
$820	15d	14 Aug 2026	$31.45	5/5	$31,450	$30,730	70%	76%	+$4,094	-$109,608	147.5%	$-106,714 (vs do-nothing $-91,550)
$800	6d	5 Aug 2026	$19.90	3/5	$29,850	$30,950	70%	76%	+$3,874	-$75,230	101.3%	$-79,559 (vs do-nothing $-64,395)
$815	13d	12 Aug 2026	$29.00	5/5	$33,462	$32,742	69%	76%	+$3,607	-$113,333	152.5%	$-110,439 (vs do-nothing $-95,275)
$790	4d	3 Aug 2026	$16.75	3/5	$37,688	$38,788	69%	76%	+$6,566	-$79,175	106.6%	$-83,504 (vs do-nothing $-68,340)
$805	8d	7 Aug 2026	$26.15	3/5	$29,419	$30,519	69%	76%	+$4,608	-$71,855	96.7%	$-76,184 (vs do-nothing $-61,020)
$815	15d	14 Aug 2026	$33.80	5/5	$33,800	$33,080	69%	76%	+$4,969	-$110,933	149.3%	$-108,039 (vs do-nothing $-92,875)
$810	13d	12 Aug 2026	$30.55	4/5	$28,200	$28,390	68%	75%	+$2,931	-$92,046	123.9%	$-92,764 (vs do-nothing $-77,600)
$795	6d	5 Aug 2026	$21.35	3/5	$32,025	$33,125	68%	75%	+$3,807	-$76,295	102.7%	$-80,624 (vs do-nothing $-65,460)
$810	15d	14 Aug 2026	$34.40	4/5	$27,520	$27,710	68%	75%	+$3,223	-$90,506	121.8%	$-91,224 (vs do-nothing $-76,060)
$800	8d	7 Aug 2026	$28.00	3/5	$31,500	$32,600	67%	75%	+$4,951	-$72,800	98.0%	$-77,129 (vs do-nothing $-61,965)
$785	4d	3 Aug 2026	$18.15	3/5	$40,838	$41,938	67%	74%	+$6,244	-$80,255	108.0%	$-84,584 (vs do-nothing $-69,420)
$805	15d	14 Aug 2026	$36.80	4/5	$29,440	$29,630	67%	74%	+$3,858	-$91,546	123.2%	$-92,264 (vs do-nothing $-77,100)
$790	6d	5 Aug 2026	$22.00	3/5	$33,000	$34,100	66%	74%	+$2,389	-$77,600	104.4%	$-81,929 (vs do-nothing $-66,765)
$795	8d	7 Aug 2026	$29.50	3/5	$33,188	$34,288	66%	74%	+$4,806	-$73,850	99.4%	$-78,179 (vs do-nothing $-63,015)
$810	22d	21 Aug 2026	$43.40	5/5	$29,591	$28,871	66%	73%	$-700	-$108,633	146.2%	$-105,739 (vs do-nothing $-90,575)
$800	15d	14 Aug 2026	$36.65	4/5	$29,320	$29,510	65%	74%	+$2,400	-$93,606	126.0%	$-94,324 (vs do-nothing $-79,160)
$805	22d	21 Aug 2026	$45.00	5/5	$30,682	$29,962	65%	73%	$-752	-$110,333	148.5%	$-107,439 (vs do-nothing $-92,275)
$780	4d	3 Aug 2026	$19.65	2/5	$29,475	$31,485	65%	73%	+$3,906	-$54,203	73.0%	$-62,144 (vs do-nothing $-46,980)
$790	8d	7 Aug 2026	$31.20	3/5	$35,100	$36,200	65%	73%	+$4,791	-$74,840	100.7%	$-79,169 (vs do-nothing $-64,005)
$785	6d	5 Aug 2026	$23.90	3/5	$35,850	$36,950	64%	73%	+$2,691	-$78,530	105.7%	$-82,859 (vs do-nothing $-67,695)
$795	15d	14 Aug 2026	$39.95	4/5	$31,960	$32,150	64%	73%	+$3,646	-$94,286	126.9%	$-95,004 (vs do-nothing $-79,840)
$800	22d	21 Aug 2026	$47.55	5/5	$32,420	$31,700	64%	72%	$-192	-$111,558	150.1%	$-108,664 (vs do-nothing $-93,500)
$795	22d	21 Aug 2026	$48.40	5/5	$33,000	$32,280	64%	73%	+$3,199	-$113,633	152.9%	$-110,739 (vs do-nothing $-95,575)
$790	15d	14 Aug 2026	$41.90	4/5	$33,520	$33,710	63%	72%	+$3,755	-$95,506	128.5%	$-96,224 (vs do-nothing $-81,060)
$785	8d	7 Aug 2026	$31.35	3/5	$35,269	$36,369	63%	72%	+$2,934	-$76,295	102.7%	$-80,624 (vs do-nothing $-65,460)
$780	6d	5 Aug 2026	$25.20	3/5	$37,800	$38,900	63%	72%	+$1,933	-$79,640	107.2%	$-83,969 (vs do-nothing $-68,805)
$790	22d	21 Aug 2026	$50.35	4/5	$27,464	$27,654	63%	72%	+$2,600	-$92,126	124.0%	$-92,844 (vs do-nothing $-77,680)
$775	4d	3 Aug 2026	$21.05	2/5	$31,575	$33,585	62%	72%	+$3,302	-$54,923	73.9%	$-62,864 (vs do-nothing $-47,700)
$785	15d	14 Aug 2026	$42.45	4/5	$33,960	$34,150	62%	72%	+$2,688	-$97,286	130.9%	$-98,004 (vs do-nothing $-82,840)
$780	8d	7 Aug 2026	$33.30	3/5	$37,462	$38,562	62%	71%	+$3,002	-$77,210	103.9%	$-81,539 (vs do-nothing $-66,375)
$775	6d	5 Aug 2026	$27.15	3/5	$40,725	$41,825	61%	71%	+$1,986	-$80,555	108.4%	$-84,884 (vs do-nothing $-69,720)
$780	15d	14 Aug 2026	$45.55	3/5	$27,330	$28,430	61%	71%	+$2,702	-$73,535	99.0%	$-77,864 (vs do-nothing $-62,700)
$780	22d	21 Aug 2026	$54.00	4/5	$29,455	$29,645	61%	71%	+$2,443	-$94,666	127.4%	$-95,384 (vs do-nothing $-80,220)
$770	4d	3 Aug 2026	$22.75	2/5	$34,125	$36,135	60%	70%	+$2,944	-$55,583	74.8%	$-63,524 (vs do-nothing $-48,360)
$775	8d	7 Aug 2026	$35.10	3/5	$39,488	$40,588	60%	71%	+$2,800	-$78,170	105.2%	$-82,499 (vs do-nothing $-67,335)
$770	6d	5 Aug 2026	$28.80	2/5	$28,800	$30,810	59%	70%	+$948	-$54,373	73.2%	$-62,314 (vs do-nothing $-47,150)
$770	8d	7 Aug 2026	$37.45	2/5	$28,088	$30,098	59%	70%	+$2,075	-$52,643	70.9%	$-60,584 (vs do-nothing $-45,420)
$770	22d	21 Aug 2026	$58.40	4/5	$31,855	$32,045	58%	70%	+$2,557	-$96,906	130.4%	$-97,624 (vs do-nothing $-82,460)
$765	4d	3 Aug 2026	$24.55	2/5	$36,825	$38,835	58%	69%	+$2,528	-$56,223	75.7%	$-64,164 (vs do-nothing $-49,000)
$765	6d	5 Aug 2026	$30.75	2/5	$30,750	$32,760	57%	69%	+$759	-$54,983	74.0%	$-62,924 (vs do-nothing $-47,760)
$765	8d	7 Aug 2026	$39.80	2/5	$29,850	$31,860	57%	69%	+$2,214	-$53,173	71.6%	$-61,114 (vs do-nothing $-45,950)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 19:14