FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $796.60

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1057.05 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $796.60 UNDERWATER $232.00 (22.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1057.05 (banked floor $1,032.57) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$64,055/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$567/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-135,438	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$32,027/mo

HEDGE COVER
$567/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$64,055/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.2 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $419,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1057.05 (probe: $1055C 15d) brings only $6,750/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$12,776

Hole (after banked)

$122,661

was $135,438 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,958

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,057.05 → $1,032.57

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026	U10001299	$7.92	$3,958	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,247.32 (+57%) · daily UBB $1,054.71 · 1-wk expected move ±$111 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $895 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($32,027/mo); it brings $33,469/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $835/8d for $66,656/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $1200/8d (99+% survival, $675/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $72,102 (97% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 1.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-135,750 and cuts bleed by $567/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 5 × $895, 80% survival, $33,469/mo (E[net] $2,325/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	5 × $895	80%	$33,469	$2,325

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $8,925 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $21,945 to close and taking $5,132 back from the best priced door (net cash $16,814) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $2,325/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $895 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $33,469/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $930 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 20% → 14%) for $12,094/mo less (36% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $796.60 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

4 × $1200

7 Aug

50.6%

99+%hist 100%

0%hist 1%

-4pp

$180

$675

-$32,794

Sell 4 × $1200 50.6% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.60 mid)

= $180 credit for the 8d cycle → $675/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1200)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1200.60)

99+%

EV / mo

+$646

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-4pp

61% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,487/mo

median; plan ~$1,011/mo after 68% keep · $5,037 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$23,359

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,253 @ 74% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $83.18/sh now → $58.85 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$58.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,200	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$30.20/sh	-$12,082 cycle -$11,902	61% surv 52%	+$50,124 SAFE cap gain +$185,561
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,253	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.04/sh	+$415 cycle +$595	74% surv 64%	+$85,558 SAFE cap gain +$220,995

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$675/mo
vs 50% target ($32,027/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($64,055/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,828/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1200 is at/above CC-SS $1057.05: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-108,410

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $1,200.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,188.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,188-1,200.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,200.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,200.00 (3.4σ)	$180	$62,205	+$197,643	+$64,740
+2.5%	$1,230.00 (3.7σ)	$-11,820	$63,090	+$198,528	+$64,740
+5%	$1,260.00 (3.9σ)	$-23,820	$63,975	+$199,413	+$64,740

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1057.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-135,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$137,913

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $1200): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1030): -$1,845

Total Position P&L @ SS: $630 (+$136,067 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,381, the opportunity cost of earning $675/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $960

7 Aug

20.5%

90%hist 100%

20%hist 13%

-0pp

$3,800

$14,250

-$19,219

$44,727

Sell 5 × $960 20.5% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $8.12 mid)

= $3,800 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $960)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $968.12)

91%

EV / mo

+$7,052

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-0pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$8,955/mo

median; plan ~$6,089/mo after 68% keep · $23,338 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$19,739

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,053 @ 79% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $66.54/sh now → $47.08 mid-life (likely $41.73–$69.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$39.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 447 simulated challenges: the $960 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $990 (overshoots $30.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,008	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$9.43/sh	+$4,715 cycle +$8,515 [+$1,483…+$8,536] · 85% credit	74% surv 64%	-$14,769 NOT cap gain +$120,668
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,033	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$143 cycle +$3,943 [-$3,844…+$3,675] · 44% credit	76% surv 69%	-$6,104 NOT cap gain +$129,333
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,053	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$6.14/sh	-$3,070 cycle +$730 [-$7,654…+$241] · 26% credit	79% surv 72%	+$1,273 SAFE cap gain +$136,711
budget: banked $3,800 debit $3,070 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$730 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $34,115/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$960	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$20.72/sh	-$10,358 cycle -$6,558 [-$15,949…-$7,591] · 1% credit	61% surv 53%	-$55,472 NOT cap gain +$79,965

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$14,250/mo
vs 50% target ($32,027/mo)	-56%
vs normal income ($64,055/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$13,683/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $960 is $97 below CC-SS $1057.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,727
… as % of IC ($74,300)	60.2%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	10.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-135,700

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.90/sh (~25% of the $7.60 collected) or spot ≥ $968.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $960)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $950.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $950-968.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $968.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$960.00 (1.4σ)	$3,800	$-45,115	+$90,323	-$500
+2.5%	$984.00 (1.6σ)	$-8,200	$-44,407	+$91,031	-$12,500
+5%	$1,008.00 (1.8σ)	$-20,200	$-43,699	+$91,739	-$24,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.0σ)	$-30,500	$-43,091	+$92,347	-$34,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1057.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-135,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$137,913

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $960): -$44,727

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,251 (+$93,186 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,500, the opportunity cost of earning $14,250/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $930

7 Aug

16.7%

86%hist 99%

29%hist 13%

+1pp

$5,700

$21,375

-$12,094

$57,827

Sell 5 × $930 16.7% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $11.98 mid)

= $5,700 credit for the 8d cycle → $21,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $930)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $941.98)

88%

EV / mo

+$9,509

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$12,394/mo

median; plan ~$8,428/mo after 68% keep · $34,766 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$17,103

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,043 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $64.46/sh now → $45.61 mid-life (likely $43.78–$69.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$34.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 665 simulated challenges: the $930 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $959 (overshoots $29.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$978	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$9.86/sh	+$4,931 cycle +$10,631 [+$1,077…+$7,456] · 83% credit	74% surv 64%	-$28,538 NOT cap gain +$106,899
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,003	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.78/sh	+$391 cycle +$6,091 [-$4,340…+$2,389] · 41% credit	77% surv 69%	-$19,840 NOT cap gain +$115,597
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,043	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$11.12/sh	-$5,562 cycle +$138 [-$11,489…-$4,098] · 10% credit	81% surv 76%	-$4,614 NOT cap gain +$130,824
budget: banked $5,700 debit $5,562 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$138 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $28,735/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$930	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$19.65/sh	-$9,825 cycle -$4,125 [-$16,211…-$8,467] · 0% credit	61% surv 53%	-$68,925 NOT cap gain +$66,513

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$21,375/mo
vs 50% target ($32,027/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($64,055/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$20,808/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $930 is $127 below CC-SS $1057.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$57,827
… as % of IC ($74,300)	77.8%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	13.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-135,725

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.85/sh (~25% of the $11.40 collected) or spot ≥ $941.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $930)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $920.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $921-941.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $941.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$930.00 (1.1σ)	$5,700	$-59,100	+$76,338	+$1,400
+2.5%	$953.25 (1.3σ)	$-5,925	$-58,414	+$77,024	-$10,225
+5%	$976.50 (1.5σ)	$-17,550	$-57,728	+$77,710	-$21,850
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.0σ)	$-43,600	$-56,191	+$79,247	-$47,900

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1057.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-135,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$137,913

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $930): -$57,827

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,351 (+$80,086 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,600, the opportunity cost of earning $21,375/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $895

7 Aug

12.4%

80%hist 99%

41%hist 28%

+5pp

$8,925

$33,469

—

$72,102

Sell 5 × $895 12.4% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $18.48 mid)

= $8,925 credit for the 8d cycle → $33,469/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $895)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $913.48)

84%

EV / mo

+$14,279

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

71% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$16,876/mo

median; plan ~$11,476/mo after 68% keep · $46,953 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$13,020

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,038 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $62.04/sh now → $43.89 mid-life (likely $46.02–$73.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 968 simulated challenges: the $895 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $926 (overshoots $30.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$943	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.26/sh	+$5,132 cycle +$14,057 [+$188…+$6,413] · 76% credit	74% surv 64%	-$43,645 NOT cap gain +$91,792
Max even-money escape in the band	~$968	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.27/sh	+$633 cycle +$9,558 [-$5,304…+$1,470] · 33% credit	77% surv 69%	-$34,907 NOT cap gain +$100,531
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,038	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$17.61/sh	-$8,803 cycle +$122 [-$17,537…-$9,011] · 2% credit	84% surv 81%	-$7,277 NOT cap gain +$128,160
budget: banked $8,925 debit $8,803 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $21,904/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$895	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$18.44/sh	-$9,221 cycle -$296 [-$17,375…-$9,299] · 1% credit	61% surv 53%	-$83,628 NOT cap gain +$51,809

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$33,469/mo
vs 50% target ($32,027/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($64,055/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$32,902/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $895 is $162 below CC-SS $1057.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$72,102
… as % of IC ($74,300)	97.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	17.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-135,750

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.46/sh (~25% of the $17.85 collected) or spot ≥ $913.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $895)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $886.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $886-913.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $913.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$895.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,925	$-74,407	+$61,030	+$4,625
+2.5%	$917.37 (1.0σ)	$-2,262	$-73,747	+$61,691	-$6,562
+5%	$939.75 (1.2σ)	$-13,450	$-73,087	+$62,351	-$17,750
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.0σ)	$-57,875	$-70,466	+$64,972	-$62,175

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1057.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-135,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$137,913

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $895): -$72,102

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-69,626 (+$65,811 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,875, the opportunity cost of earning $33,469/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $835

7 Aug

4.8%

65%hist 80%

74%hist 59%

+10pp

$17,775

$66,656

+$33,188

$93,252

Sell 5 × $835 4.8% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $36.42 mid)

= $17,775 credit for the 8d cycle → $66,656/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $835)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $871.42)

74%

EV / mo

+$17,386

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

78% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$27,754/mo

median; plan ~$18,873/mo after 68% keep · $52,758 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

58%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,699

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,048 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $57.88/sh now → $40.95 mid-life (likely $52.42–$72.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $35.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,746 simulated challenges: the $835 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $862 (overshoots $27.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$883	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.69/sh	+$5,347 cycle +$23,122 [-$545…+$3,135] · 69% credit	74% surv 65%	-$66,350 NOT cap gain +$69,088
Max even-money escape in the band	~$913	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.23/sh	+$116 cycle +$17,891 [-$6,867…-$2,652] · 13% credit	78% surv 71%	-$55,696 NOT cap gain +$79,742
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$835	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$16.46/sh	-$8,228 cycle +$9,547 [-$17,161…-$11,570] · 0% credit	61% surv 53%	-$105,555 NOT cap gain +$29,882
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,048	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$27.44/sh	-$13,722 cycle +$4,053 [-$25,179…-$17,971]	90% surv 89%	+$1,949 SAFE cap gain +$137,386
budget: banked $17,775 debit $13,722 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,053 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,253/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$66,656/mo
vs 50% target ($32,027/mo)	+108%
vs normal income ($64,055/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$66,089/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $835 is $222 below CC-SS $1057.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$93,252
… as % of IC ($74,300)	125.5%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	22.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-135,875

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.89/sh (~25% of the $35.55 collected) or spot ≥ $871.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $835)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $826.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $827-871.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $871.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$835.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$17,775	$-97,327	+$38,110	+$13,475
+2.5%	$855.87 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,338	$-96,711	+$38,726	+$3,038
+5%	$876.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-3,100	$-96,095	+$39,342	-$7,400
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.0σ)	$-79,025	$-91,616	+$43,822	-$83,325

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1057.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-135,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$137,913

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $835): -$93,252

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-90,776 (+$44,661 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-84,025, the opportunity cost of earning $66,656/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (117 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 117 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.059 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$137,913 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,751

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$870	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.20	5/5	$34,500	$33,933	83%	86%	+$16,390	-$88,927	119.7%	$-86,451 (vs do-nothing $-79,700)
$865	4d	3 Aug 2026	$10.15	5/5	$38,062	$37,496	82%	85%	+$17,328	-$90,952	122.4%	$-88,476 (vs do-nothing $-81,725)
$895	8d	7 Aug 2026	$17.85	5/5	$33,469	$32,902	80%	84%	+$14,279	-$72,102	97.0%	$-69,626 (vs do-nothing $-62,875)
$880	6d	5 Aug 2026	$13.65	5/5	$34,125	$33,558	80%	84%	+$12,763	-$81,702	110.0%	$-79,226 (vs do-nothing $-72,475)
$860	4d	3 Aug 2026	$11.15	4/5	$33,450	$34,603	80%	84%	+$14,497	-$74,361	100.1%	$-73,731 (vs do-nothing $-66,980)
$890	8d	7 Aug 2026	$19.00	5/5	$35,625	$35,058	79%	83%	+$14,866	-$74,027	99.6%	$-71,551 (vs do-nothing $-64,800)
$875	6d	5 Aug 2026	$14.75	5/5	$36,875	$36,308	79%	82%	+$12,240	-$83,652	112.6%	$-81,176 (vs do-nothing $-74,425)
$855	4d	3 Aug 2026	$12.30	4/5	$36,900	$38,053	78%	83%	+$15,291	-$75,901	102.2%	$-75,271 (vs do-nothing $-68,520)
$885	8d	7 Aug 2026	$19.90	5/5	$37,312	$36,746	78%	83%	+$14,876	-$76,077	102.4%	$-73,601 (vs do-nothing $-66,850)
$870	6d	5 Aug 2026	$15.90	5/5	$39,750	$39,183	77%	82%	+$12,773	-$85,577	115.2%	$-83,101 (vs do-nothing $-76,350)
$880	8d	7 Aug 2026	$21.45	4/5	$32,175	$33,328	77%	82%	+$12,795	-$62,241	83.8%	$-61,611 (vs do-nothing $-54,860)
$850	4d	3 Aug 2026	$13.60	4/5	$40,800	$41,953	76%	81%	+$16,222	-$77,381	104.1%	$-76,751 (vs do-nothing $-70,000)
$875	8d	7 Aug 2026	$22.75	4/5	$34,125	$35,278	76%	81%	+$13,220	-$63,721	85.8%	$-63,091 (vs do-nothing $-56,340)

Show 104 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 104.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$865	6d	5 Aug 2026	$17.10	4/5	$34,200	$35,353	76%	81%	+$10,600	-$69,981	94.2%	$-69,351 (vs do-nothing $-62,600)
$870	8d	7 Aug 2026	$24.15	4/5	$36,225	$37,378	75%	80%	+$13,697	-$65,161	87.7%	$-64,531 (vs do-nothing $-57,780)
$860	6d	5 Aug 2026	$18.35	4/5	$36,700	$37,853	75%	80%	+$10,929	-$71,481	96.2%	$-70,851 (vs do-nothing $-64,100)
$845	4d	3 Aug 2026	$15.00	3/5	$33,750	$36,623	75%	80%	+$12,839	-$59,116	79.6%	$-60,331 (vs do-nothing $-53,580)
$885	15d	14 Aug 2026	$33.30	5/5	$33,300	$32,733	74%	80%	+$11,360	-$69,377	93.4%	$-66,901 (vs do-nothing $-60,150)
$865	8d	7 Aug 2026	$25.60	4/5	$38,400	$39,553	74%	80%	+$14,147	-$66,581	89.6%	$-65,951 (vs do-nothing $-59,200)
$855	6d	5 Aug 2026	$19.85	4/5	$39,700	$40,853	73%	79%	+$11,599	-$72,881	98.1%	$-72,251 (vs do-nothing $-65,500)
$880	15d	14 Aug 2026	$34.80	5/5	$34,800	$34,233	73%	79%	+$11,625	-$71,127	95.7%	$-68,651 (vs do-nothing $-61,900)
$870	11d	10 Aug 2026	$23.50	5/5	$32,045	$31,478	72%	78%	+$3,576	-$81,777	110.1%	$-79,301 (vs do-nothing $-72,550)
$860	8d	7 Aug 2026	$27.10	4/5	$40,650	$41,803	72%	79%	+$14,566	-$67,981	91.5%	$-67,351 (vs do-nothing $-60,600)
$850	6d	5 Aug 2026	$21.30	4/5	$42,600	$43,753	72%	78%	+$12,002	-$74,301	100.0%	$-73,671 (vs do-nothing $-66,920)
$875	15d	14 Aug 2026	$36.25	5/5	$36,250	$35,683	71%	78%	+$9,665	-$72,902	98.1%	$-70,426 (vs do-nothing $-63,675)
$870	13d	12 Aug 2026	$29.15	5/5	$33,635	$33,068	71%	78%	+$5,363	-$78,952	106.3%	$-76,476 (vs do-nothing $-69,725)
$865	11d	10 Aug 2026	$25.00	5/5	$34,091	$33,524	71%	77%	+$3,864	-$83,527	112.4%	$-81,051 (vs do-nothing $-74,300)
$840	4d	3 Aug 2026	$16.25	3/5	$36,562	$39,436	71%	77%	+$8,652	-$60,241	81.1%	$-61,456 (vs do-nothing $-54,705)
$855	8d	7 Aug 2026	$28.70	3/5	$32,288	$35,160	71%	78%	+$11,269	-$52,006	70.0%	$-53,221 (vs do-nothing $-46,470)
$870	15d	14 Aug 2026	$37.85	5/5	$37,850	$37,283	70%	77%	+$9,916	-$74,602	100.4%	$-72,126 (vs do-nothing $-65,375)
$865	13d	12 Aug 2026	$30.65	5/5	$35,365	$34,798	70%	77%	+$5,532	-$80,702	108.6%	$-78,226 (vs do-nothing $-71,475)
$860	11d	10 Aug 2026	$26.55	5/5	$36,205	$35,638	70%	77%	+$4,133	-$85,252	114.7%	$-82,776 (vs do-nothing $-76,025)
$845	6d	5 Aug 2026	$22.85	3/5	$34,275	$37,148	70%	77%	+$9,323	-$56,761	76.4%	$-57,976 (vs do-nothing $-51,225)
$865	15d	14 Aug 2026	$39.50	5/5	$39,500	$38,933	70%	77%	+$12,265	-$76,277	102.7%	$-73,801 (vs do-nothing $-67,050)
$835	4d	3 Aug 2026	$17.95	3/5	$40,388	$43,260	69%	76%	+$9,413	-$61,231	82.4%	$-62,446 (vs do-nothing $-55,695)
$860	13d	12 Aug 2026	$32.35	5/5	$37,327	$36,760	69%	76%	+$5,862	-$82,352	110.8%	$-79,876 (vs do-nothing $-73,125)
$870	22d	21 Aug 2026	$48.30	5/5	$32,932	$32,365	69%	77%	+$9,465	-$69,377	93.4%	$-66,901 (vs do-nothing $-60,150)
$850	8d	7 Aug 2026	$30.35	3/5	$34,144	$37,017	69%	77%	+$10,021	-$53,011	71.3%	$-54,226 (vs do-nothing $-47,475)
$855	11d	10 Aug 2026	$28.15	5/5	$38,386	$37,819	69%	76%	+$4,381	-$86,952	117.0%	$-84,476 (vs do-nothing $-77,725)
$860	15d	14 Aug 2026	$41.15	4/5	$32,920	$34,073	68%	76%	+$8,279	-$62,361	83.9%	$-61,731 (vs do-nothing $-54,980)
$840	6d	5 Aug 2026	$24.50	3/5	$36,750	$39,623	68%	76%	+$9,659	-$57,766	77.7%	$-58,981 (vs do-nothing $-52,230)
$865	22d	21 Aug 2026	$50.10	5/5	$34,159	$33,592	68%	77%	+$9,648	-$70,977	95.5%	$-68,501 (vs do-nothing $-61,750)
$855	13d	12 Aug 2026	$34.00	5/5	$39,231	$38,664	68%	76%	+$6,064	-$84,027	113.1%	$-81,551 (vs do-nothing $-74,800)
$855	15d	14 Aug 2026	$42.85	4/5	$34,280	$35,433	68%	76%	+$10,076	-$63,681	85.7%	$-63,051 (vs do-nothing $-56,300)
$850	11d	10 Aug 2026	$29.85	4/5	$32,564	$33,717	68%	75%	+$3,738	-$70,881	95.4%	$-70,251 (vs do-nothing $-63,500)
$845	8d	7 Aug 2026	$32.05	3/5	$36,056	$38,929	68%	76%	+$10,216	-$54,001	72.7%	$-55,216 (vs do-nothing $-48,465)
$860	22d	21 Aug 2026	$51.75	5/5	$35,284	$34,717	67%	76%	+$9,692	-$72,652	97.8%	$-70,176 (vs do-nothing $-63,425)
$830	4d	3 Aug 2026	$19.60	3/5	$44,100	$46,973	67%	75%	+$9,807	-$62,236	83.8%	$-63,451 (vs do-nothing $-56,700)
$850	13d	12 Aug 2026	$35.70	4/5	$32,954	$34,107	67%	75%	+$5,126	-$68,541	92.2%	$-67,911 (vs do-nothing $-61,160)
$835	6d	5 Aug 2026	$26.20	3/5	$39,300	$42,173	67%	75%	+$9,929	-$58,756	79.1%	$-59,971 (vs do-nothing $-53,220)
$855	22d	21 Aug 2026	$53.55	5/5	$36,511	$35,944	66%	76%	+$9,799	-$74,252	99.9%	$-71,776 (vs do-nothing $-65,025)
$850	15d	14 Aug 2026	$44.65	4/5	$35,720	$36,873	66%	75%	+$8,599	-$64,961	87.4%	$-64,331 (vs do-nothing $-57,580)
$840	8d	7 Aug 2026	$33.80	3/5	$38,025	$40,898	66%	75%	+$10,372	-$54,976	74.0%	$-56,191 (vs do-nothing $-49,440)
$845	13d	12 Aug 2026	$37.50	4/5	$34,615	$35,768	66%	74%	+$5,181	-$69,821	94.0%	$-69,191 (vs do-nothing $-62,440)
$845	15d	14 Aug 2026	$46.50	4/5	$37,200	$38,353	66%	75%	+$10,368	-$66,221	89.1%	$-65,591 (vs do-nothing $-58,840)
$850	22d	21 Aug 2026	$55.40	5/5	$37,773	$37,206	65%	75%	+$9,902	-$75,827	102.1%	$-73,351 (vs do-nothing $-66,600)
$825	4d	3 Aug 2026	$21.35	3/5	$48,038	$50,910	65%	74%	+$10,158	-$63,211	85.1%	$-64,426 (vs do-nothing $-57,675)
$830	6d	5 Aug 2026	$27.35	3/5	$41,025	$43,898	65%	74%	+$9,228	-$59,911	80.6%	$-61,126 (vs do-nothing $-54,375)
$835	8d	7 Aug 2026	$35.55	3/5	$39,994	$42,867	65%	74%	+$10,432	-$55,951	75.3%	$-57,166 (vs do-nothing $-50,415)
$840	13d	12 Aug 2026	$39.35	4/5	$36,323	$37,476	65%	74%	+$5,412	-$71,081	95.7%	$-70,451 (vs do-nothing $-63,700)
$845	22d	21 Aug 2026	$57.25	5/5	$39,034	$38,467	64%	75%	+$9,964	-$77,402	104.2%	$-74,926 (vs do-nothing $-68,175)
$840	15d	14 Aug 2026	$48.45	4/5	$38,760	$39,913	64%	74%	+$8,964	-$67,441	90.8%	$-66,811 (vs do-nothing $-60,060)
$840	22d	21 Aug 2026	$59.20	4/5	$32,291	$33,444	64%	74%	+$8,044	-$63,141	85.0%	$-62,511 (vs do-nothing $-55,760)
$835	13d	12 Aug 2026	$41.25	4/5	$38,077	$39,230	63%	73%	+$5,530	-$72,321	97.3%	$-71,691 (vs do-nothing $-64,940)
$830	8d	7 Aug 2026	$37.70	3/5	$42,412	$45,286	63%	74%	+$10,842	-$56,806	76.5%	$-58,021 (vs do-nothing $-51,270)
$825	6d	5 Aug 2026	$29.25	3/5	$43,875	$46,748	63%	73%	+$9,502	-$60,841	81.9%	$-62,056 (vs do-nothing $-55,305)
$835	15d	14 Aug 2026	$50.40	4/5	$40,320	$41,473	63%	73%	+$9,111	-$68,661	92.4%	$-68,031 (vs do-nothing $-61,280)
$820	4d	3 Aug 2026	$23.30	2/5	$34,950	$39,543	63%	73%	+$7,122	-$42,751	57.5%	$-45,811 (vs do-nothing $-39,060)
$835	22d	21 Aug 2026	$61.20	4/5	$33,382	$34,535	63%	74%	+$8,110	-$64,341	86.6%	$-63,711 (vs do-nothing $-56,960)
$830	13d	12 Aug 2026	$43.40	4/5	$40,062	$41,215	62%	73%	+$5,813	-$73,461	98.9%	$-72,831 (vs do-nothing $-66,080)
$830	15d	14 Aug 2026	$52.45	4/5	$41,960	$43,113	62%	73%	+$10,771	-$69,841	94.0%	$-69,211 (vs do-nothing $-62,460)
$825	8d	7 Aug 2026	$39.70	3/5	$44,662	$47,536	62%	73%	+$10,983	-$57,706	77.7%	$-58,921 (vs do-nothing $-52,170)
$830	22d	21 Aug 2026	$63.25	4/5	$34,500	$35,653	62%	73%	+$8,171	-$65,521	88.2%	$-64,891 (vs do-nothing $-58,140)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39