FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $929.18

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1059.44 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $929.18 UNDERWATER $99.42 (9.7% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1059.44 (banked floor $1,034.95) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$59,143/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$426/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-67,440	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$29,571/mo

HEDGE COVER
$426/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$59,143/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.3 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
7.1 mo to earn back $419,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1059.44 (probe: $1060C 14d) still earns $20,143/mo (34% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$12,776

Hole (after banked)

$54,664

was $67,440 · 19% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$3,958

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,059.44 → $1,034.95

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026	U10001299	$7.92	$3,958	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 63 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 56 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,259.99 (+36%) · daily UBB $1,041.11 · 1-wk expected move ±$121 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $1059.44 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $1060 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1060)

84%

Touch odds

33%

Per cycle

$4,525

Income / mo

$19,393

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $50.05/sh now → $35.40 mid-life (likely $34.98–$57.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 743 simulated challenges: the $1,060 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,094 (overshoots $33.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,226	11 Sep 2026	38d left	+$11.70/sh	+$5,852 cycle +$10,377 [+$199…+$6,996] · 76% credit	78% surv 74%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,060	10 Aug 2026	6d left	+$1.71/sh	+$857 cycle +$5,382 [-$1,142…+$2,286] · 55% credit	64% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,066	10 Aug 2026	6d left	+$0.01/sh	+$3 cycle +$4,528 [-$2,169…+$1,252] · 41% credit	65% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,271	11 Sep 2026	38d left	+$1.79/sh	+$895 cycle +$5,420 [-$5,722…+$1,826] · 37% credit	81% surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,301	4 Sep 2026	32d left	-$8.88/sh	-$4,442 cycle +$83 [-$11,567…-$3,740] · 11% credit	84% surv 83%
budget: banked $4,525 debit $4,442 (98% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $12,431/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1065 5 Aug 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1065)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,925

Income / mo

$11,550

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $36.16/sh now → $25.58 mid-life (likely $24.88–$41.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 383 simulated challenges: the $1,065 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $1,095 (overshoots $30.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,065	7 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.95/sh	+$4,977 cycle +$6,902 [+$4,496…+$5,774] · 100% credit	65% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,306	11 Sep 2026	40d left	+$6.58/sh	+$3,292 cycle +$5,217 [-$1,404…+$4,193] · 65% credit	82% surv 80%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,086	7 Aug 2026	4d left	+$2.24/sh	+$1,120 cycle +$3,045 [-$747…+$1,340] · 63% credit	69% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,346	11 Sep 2026	40d left	+$0.84/sh	+$419 cycle +$2,344 [-$4,831…+$1,167] · 36% credit	85% surv 83%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,346	4 Sep 2026	32d left	-$3.40/sh	-$1,699 cycle +$226 [-$7,007…-$994] · 20% credit	86% surv 85%
budget: banked $1,925 debit $1,699 (88% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$226 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $10,397/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $1210 5 Aug 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1210)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$160

Income / mo

$960

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,210	7 Aug 2026	4d left	+$8.71/sh	+$4,357 cycle +$4,517	64% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,231	7 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.90/sh	+$449 cycle +$609	68% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,491	11 Sep 2026	40d left	+$0.11/sh	+$55 cycle +$215	84% surv 82%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (230 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 230 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.055 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$68,714 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,348

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1020	7d	7 Aug 2026	$14.55	5/5	$31,179	$30,753	78%	82%	+$5,651	-$12,447	16.8%	$-11,173 (vs do-nothing $-4,825)
$1005	5d	5 Aug 2026	$10.15	5/5	$30,450	$30,024	78%	81%	+$530	-$22,147	29.8%	$-20,873 (vs do-nothing $-14,525)
$1015	7d	7 Aug 2026	$15.45	5/5	$33,107	$32,682	77%	81%	+$5,544	-$14,497	19.5%	$-13,223 (vs do-nothing $-6,875)
$1000	5d	5 Aug 2026	$11.05	5/5	$33,150	$32,724	77%	80%	+$355	-$24,197	32.6%	$-22,923 (vs do-nothing $-16,575)
$995	5d	5 Aug 2026	$11.95	5/5	$35,850	$35,424	75%	79%	$-56	-$26,247	35.3%	$-24,973 (vs do-nothing $-18,625)
$1005	7d	7 Aug 2026	$17.40	4/5	$29,829	$33,663	75%	79%	+$4,198	-$14,818	19.9%	$-15,068 (vs do-nothing $-8,720)
$1010	7d	7 Aug 2026	$16.55	5/5	$35,464	$35,039	74%	78%	$-946	-$16,447	22.1%	$-15,173 (vs do-nothing $-8,825)
$990	5d	5 Aug 2026	$12.85	4/5	$30,840	$34,674	74%	78%	$-572	-$22,638	30.5%	$-22,888 (vs do-nothing $-16,540)
$1000	7d	7 Aug 2026	$19.00	4/5	$32,571	$36,406	74%	78%	+$4,981	-$16,178	21.8%	$-16,428 (vs do-nothing $-10,080)
$995	7d	7 Aug 2026	$19.40	4/5	$33,257	$37,092	72%	77%	+$3,587	-$18,018	24.2%	$-18,268 (vs do-nothing $-11,920)
$985	5d	5 Aug 2026	$13.90	4/5	$33,360	$37,194	72%	76%	$-947	-$24,218	32.6%	$-24,468 (vs do-nothing $-18,120)
$1015	14d	14 Aug 2026	$27.90	5/5	$29,893	$29,467	72%	77%	+$999	-$8,272	11.1%	$-6,998 (vs do-nothing $-650)
$990	7d	7 Aug 2026	$20.55	4/5	$35,229	$39,063	71%	76%	+$3,355	-$19,558	26.3%	$-19,808 (vs do-nothing $-13,460)

Show 217 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 217.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1010	14d	14 Aug 2026	$28.75	5/5	$30,804	$30,378	71%	76%	+$491	-$10,347	13.9%	$-9,073 (vs do-nothing $-2,725)
$980	5d	5 Aug 2026	$15.10	4/5	$36,240	$40,074	71%	75%	$-1,181	-$25,738	34.6%	$-25,988 (vs do-nothing $-19,640)
$1005	14d	14 Aug 2026	$30.55	5/5	$32,732	$32,307	70%	76%	+$944	-$11,947	16.1%	$-10,673 (vs do-nothing $-4,325)
$975	5d	5 Aug 2026	$16.15	4/5	$38,760	$42,594	69%	74%	$-2,003	-$27,318	36.8%	$-27,568 (vs do-nothing $-21,220)
$1000	14d	14 Aug 2026	$32.00	5/5	$34,286	$33,860	69%	75%	+$1,060	-$13,722	18.5%	$-12,448 (vs do-nothing $-6,100)
$1010	21d	21 Aug 2026	$41.90	5/5	$29,929	$29,503	69%	75%	+$2,013	-$3,772	5.1%	$-2,498 (vs do-nothing +$3,850)
$985	7d	7 Aug 2026	$21.95	4/5	$37,629	$41,463	69%	74%	$-2,439	-$20,998	28.3%	$-21,248 (vs do-nothing $-14,900)
$980	7d	7 Aug 2026	$23.10	3/5	$29,700	$37,794	68%	75%	+$2,198	-$16,903	22.7%	$-18,678 (vs do-nothing $-12,330)
$995	14d	14 Aug 2026	$33.35	5/5	$35,732	$35,307	68%	74%	+$912	-$15,547	20.9%	$-14,273 (vs do-nothing $-7,925)
$1005	21d	21 Aug 2026	$42.85	5/5	$30,607	$30,182	68%	74%	+$1,260	-$5,797	7.8%	$-4,523 (vs do-nothing +$1,825)
$982.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$22.50	4/5	$38,571	$42,406	68%	74%	$-3,231	-$21,778	29.3%	$-22,028 (vs do-nothing $-15,680)
$985	10d	10 Aug 2026	$20.60	5/5	$30,900	$30,474	68%	73%	$-8,807	-$26,922	36.2%	$-25,648 (vs do-nothing $-19,300)
$970	5d	5 Aug 2026	$17.40	3/5	$31,320	$39,414	67%	73%	$-1,937	-$21,613	29.1%	$-23,388 (vs do-nothing $-17,040)
$1000	21d	21 Aug 2026	$45.00	5/5	$32,143	$31,717	67%	74%	+$1,159	-$7,222	9.7%	$-5,948 (vs do-nothing +$400)
$990	14d	14 Aug 2026	$34.25	5/5	$36,696	$36,271	67%	74%	+$218	-$17,597	23.7%	$-16,323 (vs do-nothing $-9,975)
$977.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$23.80	3/5	$30,600	$38,694	67%	73%	$-2,406	-$17,443	23.5%	$-19,218 (vs do-nothing $-12,870)
$980	10d	10 Aug 2026	$21.85	5/5	$32,775	$32,349	66%	72%	$-9,297	-$28,797	38.8%	$-27,523 (vs do-nothing $-21,175)
$995	21d	21 Aug 2026	$45.75	5/5	$32,679	$32,253	66%	73%	+$943	-$9,347	12.6%	$-8,073 (vs do-nothing $-1,725)
$975	7d	7 Aug 2026	$24.55	3/5	$31,564	$39,659	66%	72%	$-2,476	-$17,968	24.2%	$-19,743 (vs do-nothing $-13,395)
$985	14d	14 Aug 2026	$35.85	4/5	$30,729	$34,563	66%	73%	+$167	-$15,438	20.8%	$-15,688 (vs do-nothing $-9,340)
$965	5d	5 Aug 2026	$18.70	3/5	$33,660	$41,754	66%	72%	$-2,465	-$22,723	30.6%	$-24,498 (vs do-nothing $-18,150)
$995	28d	28 Aug 2026	$56.15	5/5	$30,080	$29,655	65%	73%	+$730	-$4,147	5.6%	$-2,873 (vs do-nothing +$3,475)
$990	21d	21 Aug 2026	$47.25	5/5	$33,750	$33,324	65%	73%	+$444	-$11,097	14.9%	$-9,823 (vs do-nothing $-3,475)
$972.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$25.25	3/5	$32,464	$40,559	65%	72%	$-2,635	-$18,508	24.9%	$-20,283 (vs do-nothing $-13,935)
$975	10d	10 Aug 2026	$23.10	5/5	$34,650	$34,224	65%	71%	$-9,897	-$30,672	41.3%	$-29,398 (vs do-nothing $-23,050)
$980	14d	14 Aug 2026	$37.60	4/5	$32,229	$36,063	65%	73%	+$235	-$16,738	22.5%	$-16,988 (vs do-nothing $-10,640)
$990	28d	28 Aug 2026	$57.80	5/5	$30,964	$30,539	65%	73%	+$692	-$5,822	7.8%	$-4,548 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$970	7d	7 Aug 2026	$25.90	3/5	$33,300	$41,394	65%	71%	$-2,884	-$19,063	25.7%	$-20,838 (vs do-nothing $-14,490)
$985	21d	21 Aug 2026	$48.80	5/5	$34,857	$34,432	64%	72%	+$339	-$12,822	17.3%	$-11,548 (vs do-nothing $-5,200)
$970	10d	10 Aug 2026	$24.45	5/5	$36,675	$36,249	64%	70%	$-10,460	-$32,497	43.7%	$-31,223 (vs do-nothing $-24,875)
$967.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$26.65	3/5	$34,264	$42,359	64%	71%	$-3,031	-$19,588	26.4%	$-21,363 (vs do-nothing $-15,015)
$985	28d	28 Aug 2026	$59.20	5/5	$31,714	$31,289	64%	72%	+$498	-$7,622	10.3%	$-6,348 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$975	14d	14 Aug 2026	$39.00	4/5	$33,429	$37,263	64%	72%	$-51	-$18,178	24.5%	$-18,428 (vs do-nothing $-12,080)
$960	5d	5 Aug 2026	$20.10	3/5	$36,180	$44,274	64%	71%	$-3,004	-$23,803	32.0%	$-25,578 (vs do-nothing $-19,230)
$980	21d	21 Aug 2026	$49.75	5/5	$35,536	$35,110	64%	72%	+$241	-$14,847	20.0%	$-13,573 (vs do-nothing $-7,225)
$965	7d	7 Aug 2026	$27.40	3/5	$35,229	$43,323	63%	71%	$-3,203	-$20,113	27.1%	$-21,888 (vs do-nothing $-15,540)
$980	28d	28 Aug 2026	$60.60	5/5	$32,464	$32,039	63%	72%	+$279	-$9,422	12.7%	$-8,148 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$980	35d	4 Sep 2026	$70.55	5/5	$30,236	$29,810	63%	72%	+$1,242	-$4,447	6.0%	$-3,173 (vs do-nothing +$3,175)
$975	21d	21 Aug 2026	$51.45	5/5	$36,750	$36,324	63%	72%	+$986	-$16,497	22.2%	$-15,223 (vs do-nothing $-8,875)
$970	14d	14 Aug 2026	$40.65	4/5	$34,843	$38,677	63%	71%	$-178	-$19,518	26.3%	$-19,768 (vs do-nothing $-13,420)
$965	10d	10 Aug 2026	$25.85	4/5	$31,020	$34,854	63%	70%	$-8,852	-$27,438	36.9%	$-27,688 (vs do-nothing $-21,340)
$962.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$28.15	3/5	$36,193	$44,287	63%	70%	$-3,401	-$20,638	27.8%	$-22,413 (vs do-nothing $-16,065)
$975	28d	28 Aug 2026	$62.25	5/5	$33,348	$32,923	62%	72%	+$169	-$11,097	14.9%	$-9,823 (vs do-nothing $-3,475)
$975	35d	4 Sep 2026	$72.50	5/5	$31,071	$30,646	62%	72%	+$856	-$5,972	8.0%	$-4,698 (vs do-nothing +$1,650)
$970	21d	21 Aug 2026	$53.10	4/5	$30,343	$34,177	62%	71%	+$441	-$14,538	19.6%	$-14,788 (vs do-nothing $-8,440)
$955	5d	5 Aug 2026	$21.55	3/5	$38,790	$46,884	62%	70%	$-3,648	-$24,868	33.5%	$-26,643 (vs do-nothing $-20,295)
$960	7d	7 Aug 2026	$29.00	3/5	$37,286	$45,380	62%	70%	$-3,497	-$21,133	28.4%	$-22,908 (vs do-nothing $-16,560)
$965	14d	14 Aug 2026	$41.35	4/5	$35,443	$39,277	62%	71%	$-1,176	-$21,238	28.6%	$-21,488 (vs do-nothing $-15,140)
$970	28d	28 Aug 2026	$64.20	5/5	$34,393	$33,967	62%	71%	+$196	-$12,622	17.0%	$-11,348 (vs do-nothing $-5,000)
$970	35d	4 Sep 2026	$74.30	5/5	$31,843	$31,417	62%	71%	+$816	-$7,572	10.2%	$-6,298 (vs do-nothing +$50)
$960	10d	10 Aug 2026	$27.30	4/5	$32,760	$36,594	61%	69%	$-9,369	-$28,858	38.8%	$-29,108 (vs do-nothing $-22,760)
$962.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$42.25	4/5	$36,214	$40,049	61%	70%	$-1,225	-$21,878	29.4%	$-22,128 (vs do-nothing $-15,780)
$957.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$29.75	3/5	$38,250	$46,344	61%	69%	$-3,749	-$21,658	29.1%	$-23,433 (vs do-nothing $-17,085)
$965	21d	21 Aug 2026	$55.15	4/5	$31,514	$35,349	61%	71%	+$516	-$15,718	21.2%	$-15,968 (vs do-nothing $-9,620)
$965	28d	28 Aug 2026	$65.85	5/5	$35,277	$34,851	61%	71%	+$37	-$14,297	19.2%	$-13,023 (vs do-nothing $-6,675)
$965	35d	4 Sep 2026	$76.10	5/5	$32,614	$32,189	61%	71%	+$758	-$9,172	12.3%	$-7,898 (vs do-nothing $-1,550)
$962.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$56.00	4/5	$32,000	$35,834	61%	70%	+$442	-$16,378	22.0%	$-16,628 (vs do-nothing $-10,280)
$960	14d	14 Aug 2026	$43.35	4/5	$37,157	$40,992	61%	70%	$-1,116	-$22,438	30.2%	$-22,688 (vs do-nothing $-16,340)
$955	7d	7 Aug 2026	$30.40	3/5	$39,086	$47,180	60%	69%	$-4,156	-$22,213	29.9%	$-23,988 (vs do-nothing $-17,640)
$960	42d	11 Sep 2026	$84.65	5/5	$30,232	$29,807	60%	71%	$-800	-$7,397	10.0%	$-6,123 (vs do-nothing +$225)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-31 21:46