FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $917.54

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1245.98 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $917.54 UNDERWATER $302.46 (24.8% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1245.98 (banked floor $1,217.66) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$17,100/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$117/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-68,875	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,550/mo

HEDGE COVER
$117/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$17,100/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.9 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
11.6 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $1245.98 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $945C (14d, $13,093/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$5,938

Hole (after banked)

$62,937

was $68,875 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,245.98 → $1,217.66

? 6 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 66 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,245.25 (+36%) · daily UBB $994.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$87 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $990 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 94%, breach 6%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($8,550/mo); it brings $8,970/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $965/2d for $17,400/mo, but breach risk rises to 20% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1160/2d (99+% survival, $120/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $50,598 (101% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 3.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-68,901 and cuts bleed by $117/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 14 Aug 2026 (2d) · sell 2 × $990, 94% survival, $8,970/mo (E[net] $5,064/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	14 Aug 2026 · 2d	2 × $990	94%	$8,970	$5,064
NEXT FRIDAY	21 Aug 2026 · 9d	2 × $990	78%	$8,800	$308

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $598 with probability 89%; on the 11% touch you roll, paying $3,011 to close and taking $1,332 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,679) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 14 Aug 2026 · 2d · E[net] $5,064/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $990 (50% normal), 94% survival, breach 6%, $8,970/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1005 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 97% (breach 6% → 3%) for $2,970/mo less (33% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $917.54 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1160

14 Aug

26.4%

99+%hist 97%

0%hist 2%

-1pp

$120

-$8,850

$17,188

Sell 2 × $1160 26.4% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid)

= $8 credit for the 2d cycle → $120/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1160)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1160.10)

99+%

EV / mo

+$120

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

54% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-116/mo

median; plan ~$-79/mo after 68% keep · $-773 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,520

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,302 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $24.95/sh now → $17.64 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,160	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$4.72/sh	+$945 cycle +$953	64% surv 51%	-$15,939 NOT cap gain +$52,936
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,167	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.52/sh	+$303 cycle +$311	67% surv 56%	-$14,981 NOT cap gain +$53,894
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,302	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.78/sh	+$156 cycle +$164	84% surv 81%	+$13,816 SAFE cap gain +$82,691
reaches SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$120/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	-99%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1160 is $86 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,188
… as % of IC ($50,000)	34.4%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	8.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,887

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $1,160.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,148.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,148-1,160.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,160.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,160.00 (5.2σ)	$8	$-16,884	+$51,991	-$440
+2.5%	$1,189.00 (5.8σ)	$-5,792	$-16,466	+$52,409	-$6,240
+5%	$1,218.00 (6.5σ)	$-11,592	$-16,048	+$52,827	-$12,040
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.5σ)	$-11,992	$-16,020	+$52,855	-$12,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1160): -$17,188

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,645 (+$53,230 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,440, the opportunity cost of earning $120/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $1005

14 Aug

9.5%

97%hist 97%

7%hist 2%

+4pp

$400

$6,000

-$2,970

$47,796

Sell 2 × $1005 9.5% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $2.10 mid)

= $400 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1005)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1007.10)

97%

EV / mo

+$5,237

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

55% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,284/mo

median; plan ~$2,233/mo after 68% keep · $17,857 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,657

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,177 @ 88% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $21.61/sh now → $15.28 mid-life (likely $15.77–$28.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 183 simulated challenges: the $1,005 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,026 (overshoots $20.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,005	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$6.53/sh	+$1,305 cycle +$1,705 [+$1,037…+$1,499] · 94% credit	64% surv 51%	-$48,419 NOT cap gain +$20,456
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,137	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$5.00/sh	+$1,000 cycle +$1,400 [-$583…+$1,055] · 65% credit	83% surv 81%	-$20,324 NOT cap gain +$48,551
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,017	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.32/sh	+$264 cycle +$664 [-$461…+$307] · 57% credit	68% surv 59%	-$46,788 NOT cap gain +$22,087
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,157	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.52/sh	+$104 cycle +$504 [-$1,749…+$97] · 31% credit	85% surv 83%	-$16,932 NOT cap gain +$51,943
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,177	4 Sep 2026	22d left	-$1.76/sh	-$352 cycle +$48 [-$2,263…-$378] · 17% credit	88% surv 86%	-$13,100 NOT cap gain +$55,775
budget: banked $400 debit $352 (88% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,689/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,000/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,883/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1005 is $241 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$47,796
… as % of IC ($50,000)	95.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	24.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,895

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,007.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,005)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $994.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $995-1,007.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,007.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,005.00 (1.9σ)	$400	$-49,724	+$19,151	-$48
+2.5%	$1,030.12 (2.4σ)	$-4,625	$-49,362	+$19,513	-$5,073
+5%	$1,055.25 (3.0σ)	$-9,650	$-49,000	+$19,875	-$10,098
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.5σ)	$-42,600	$-46,628	+$22,247	-$43,048

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1005): -$47,796

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,253 (+$22,622 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,048, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $990

14 Aug

7.9%

94%hist 97%

13%hist 9%

+10pp

$598

$8,970

—

$50,598

Sell 2 × $990 7.9% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $3.12 mid)

= $598 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,970/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $990)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $993.12)

94%

EV / mo

+$7,068

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,291/mo

median; plan ~$4,278/mo after 68% keep · $29,078 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,413

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,167 @ 88% POP

87% survival

Buyback gross: $21.29/sh now → $15.06 mid-life (likely $16.26–$30.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,011 (overshoots $21.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$990	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$6.66/sh	+$1,332 cycle +$1,930 [+$970…+$1,465] · 97% credit	64% surv 51%	-$51,410 NOT cap gain +$17,465
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,112	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$5.75/sh	+$1,149 cycle +$1,747 [-$674…+$1,071] · 64% credit	82% surv 79%	-$25,337 NOT cap gain +$43,538
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,002	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.46/sh	+$292 cycle +$890 [-$543…+$258] · 50% credit	68% surv 59%	-$49,779 NOT cap gain +$19,096
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,142	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.57/sh	+$115 cycle +$713 [-$2,037…-$26] · 24% credit	85% surv 83%	-$19,939 NOT cap gain +$48,936
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,167	4 Sep 2026	22d left	-$1.94/sh	-$387 cycle +$211 [-$2,610…-$547] · 11% credit	88% surv 87%	-$15,082 NOT cap gain +$53,793
budget: banked $598 debit $387 (65% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$211 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,578/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,970/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,853/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $990 is $256 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$50,598
… as % of IC ($50,000)	101.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	25.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,901

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $2.99 collected) or spot ≥ $993.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $990)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $980.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $980-993.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $993.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$990.00 (1.6σ)	$598	$-52,742	+$16,133	+$150
+2.5%	$1,014.75 (2.1σ)	$-4,352	$-52,385	+$16,490	-$4,800
+5%	$1,039.50 (2.6σ)	$-9,302	$-52,029	+$16,846	-$9,750
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.5σ)	$-45,402	$-49,430	+$19,445	-$45,850

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $990): -$50,598

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,055 (+$19,820 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,850, the opportunity cost of earning $8,970/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $985

14 Aug

7.4%

92%hist 97%

16%hist 9%

+12pp

$680

$10,200

+$1,230

$51,516

Sell 2 × $985 7.4% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $3.52 mid)

= $680 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $985)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $988.52)

93%

EV / mo

+$7,670

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+12pp

67% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$7,521/mo

median; plan ~$5,114/mo after 68% keep · $29,987 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-3.7], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,316

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,162 @ 88% POP

87% survival

Buyback gross: $21.18/sh now → $14.98 mid-life (likely $16.06–$29.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 402 simulated challenges: the $985 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,006 (overshoots $20.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$985	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$6.70/sh	+$1,341 cycle +$2,021 [+$980…+$1,463] · 96% credit	64% surv 51%	-$52,391 NOT cap gain +$16,484
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,117	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$5.04/sh	+$1,008 cycle +$1,688 [-$806…+$972] · 62% credit	84% surv 81%	-$24,324 NOT cap gain +$44,551
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$997	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.50/sh	+$301 cycle +$981 [-$555…+$287] · 52% credit	68% surv 59%	-$50,760 NOT cap gain +$18,115
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,137	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.59/sh	+$118 cycle +$798 [-$1,991…+$24] · 25% credit	85% surv 83%	-$20,926 NOT cap gain +$47,949
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,162	4 Sep 2026	22d left	-$1.91/sh	-$383 cycle +$297 [-$2,565…-$501] · 11% credit	88% surv 87%	-$16,067 NOT cap gain +$52,808
budget: banked $680 debit $383 (56% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$297 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,564/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,200/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	+19%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,083/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $985 is $261 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$51,516
… as % of IC ($50,000)	103.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	26.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,900

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $988.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $985)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $975.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $975-988.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $988.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$985.00 (1.5σ)	$680	$-53,732	+$15,143	+$232
+2.5%	$1,009.62 (2.0σ)	$-4,245	$-53,377	+$15,498	-$4,693
+5%	$1,034.25 (2.5σ)	$-9,170	$-53,022	+$15,853	-$9,618
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.5σ)	$-46,320	$-50,348	+$18,527	-$46,768

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $985): -$51,516

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,973 (+$18,902 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,768, the opportunity cost of earning $10,200/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $965

14 Aug

5.2%

80%hist 87%

40%hist 37%

+14pp

$1,160

$17,400

+$8,430

$55,036

Sell 2 × $965 5.2% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $6.00 mid)

= $1,160 credit for the 2d cycle → $17,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $965)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $971.00)

83%

EV / mo

+$4,239

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+14pp

74% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$8,897/mo

median; plan ~$6,050/mo after 68% keep · $26,236 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,775

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,167 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $20.75/sh now → $14.68 mid-life (likely $16.15–$32.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 673 simulated challenges: the $965 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $987 (overshoots $22.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$965	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$6.87/sh	+$1,374 cycle +$2,534 [+$896…+$1,392] · 96% credit	64% surv 51%	-$56,166 NOT cap gain +$12,709
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,037	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$7.97/sh	+$1,594 cycle +$2,754 [-$179…+$1,509] · 73% credit	78% surv 73%	-$40,411 NOT cap gain +$28,464
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$977	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.68/sh	+$335 cycle +$1,495 [-$681…+$276] · 49% credit	69% surv 59%	-$54,533 NOT cap gain +$14,342
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,117	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.64/sh	+$128 cycle +$1,288 [-$2,412…-$48] · 23% credit	85% surv 83%	-$24,724 NOT cap gain +$44,151
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,167	4 Sep 2026	22d left	-$5.01/sh	-$1,001 cycle +$159 [-$3,831…-$1,219]	90% surv 89%	-$15,134 NOT cap gain +$53,741
budget: banked $1,160 debit $1,001 (86% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$159 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,637/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$17,400/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,283/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $965 is $281 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$55,036
… as % of IC ($50,000)	110.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	27.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,915

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.45/sh (~25% of the $5.80 collected) or spot ≥ $971.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $965)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $955.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $955-971.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $971.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$965.00 (1.0σ)	$1,160	$-57,540	+$11,335	+$712
+2.5%	$989.12 (1.5σ)	$-3,665	$-57,192	+$11,683	-$4,113
+5%	$1,013.25 (2.1σ)	$-8,490	$-56,845	+$12,030	-$8,938
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.5σ)	$-49,840	$-53,868	+$15,007	-$50,288

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $965): -$55,036

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-53,493 (+$15,382 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,288, the opportunity cost of earning $17,400/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 21 Aug 2026 · 9d · E[net] $308/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $990 (50% normal), 78% survival, breach 22%, $8,800/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1020 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 22% → 16%) for $3,100/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1020 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $917.54 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1270

21 Aug

38.4%

99%hist 97%

2%hist 2%

-0pp

$64

$213

-$8,587

Sell 2 × $1270 38.4% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.43 mid)

= $64 credit for the 9d cycle → $213/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1270)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1270.43)

99%

EV / mo

+$144

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-0pp

57% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$55/mo

median; plan ~$37/mo after 68% keep · $140 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,119

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,317 @ 73% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $50.78/sh now → $35.92 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,270	24 Aug 2026	8d left	-$5.14/sh	-$1,029 cycle -$965	64% surv 51%	+$5,728 SAFE cap gain +$74,603
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,317	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.84/sh	+$167 cycle +$231	73% surv 64%	+$17,099 SAFE cap gain +$85,974

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$213/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$96/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1245.98: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,897

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $1,270.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,257-1,270.43	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,270.43	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,270.00 (3.6σ)	$64	$6,756	+$75,631	+$9,616
+2.5%	$1,301.75 (3.9σ)	$-6,286	$7,214	+$76,089	+$9,616
+5%	$1,333.50 (4.2σ)	$-12,636	$7,671	+$76,546	+$9,616

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1270): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $1,543 (+$70,418 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,748, the opportunity cost of earning $213/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1060

21 Aug

15.5%

90%hist 97%

20%hist 9%

+3pp

$950

$3,167

-$5,633

$36,246

Sell 2 × $1060 15.5% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $4.97 mid)

= $950 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,167/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1060)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1064.97)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,090

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,011/mo

median; plan ~$1,367/mo after 68% keep · $10,892 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,046

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,147 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $42.39/sh now → $29.98 mid-life (likely $24.35–$41.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 349 simulated challenges: the $1,060 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,081 (overshoots $21.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,112	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$4.09/sh	+$818 cycle +$1,768 [+$81…+$1,924] · 77% credit	74% surv 66%	-$25,316 NOT cap gain +$43,559
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,060	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.36/sh	+$72 cycle +$1,022 [-$139…+$951] · 65% credit	64% surv 52%	-$37,310 NOT cap gain +$31,565
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,122	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$1.04/sh	+$208 cycle +$1,158 [-$630…+$1,229] · 56% credit	75% surv 69%	-$23,782 NOT cap gain +$45,093
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,147	4 Sep 2026	18d left	-$4.75/sh	-$949 cycle +$1 [-$2,019…-$9] · 25% credit	79% surv 74%	-$19,579 NOT cap gain +$49,296
budget: banked $950 debit $949 (100% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,411/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,167/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	-63%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,049/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1060 is $186 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,246
… as % of IC ($50,000)	72.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	18.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,920

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.19/sh (~25% of the $4.75 collected) or spot ≥ $1,064.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,060)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,049.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,049-1,064.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,064.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,060.00 (1.4σ)	$950	$-37,382	+$31,493	+$502
+2.5%	$1,086.50 (1.7σ)	$-4,350	$-37,000	+$31,875	-$4,798
+5%	$1,113.00 (2.0σ)	$-9,650	$-36,618	+$32,257	-$10,098
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-31,050	$-35,078	+$33,797	-$31,498

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1060): -$36,246

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,703 (+$34,172 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,498, the opportunity cost of earning $3,167/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $1020

21 Aug

11.2%

84%hist 87%

33%hist 28%

+5pp

$1,710

$5,700

-$3,100

$43,486

Sell 2 × $1020 11.2% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $8.88 mid)

= $1,710 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1020)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $1028.88)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,416

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

58% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,008/mo

median; plan ~$2,046/mo after 68% keep · $16,304 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,059

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,122 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $40.79/sh now → $28.85 mid-life (likely $27.31–$42.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$20.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 668 simulated challenges: the $1,020 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,040 (overshoots $20.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,072	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$4.71/sh	+$943 cycle +$2,653 [-$127…+$1,490] · 72% credit	74% surv 66%	-$33,007 NOT cap gain +$35,868
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,020	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.20/sh	+$240 cycle +$1,950 [-$254…+$817] · 58% credit	64% surv 52%	-$44,958 NOT cap gain +$23,917
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,022	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.38/sh	+$77 cycle +$1,787 [-$433…+$610] · 48% credit	65% surv 53%	-$44,593 NOT cap gain +$24,282
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,087	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$62 cycle +$1,772 [-$1,157…+$529] · 39% credit	76% surv 70%	-$30,672 NOT cap gain +$38,203
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,122	4 Sep 2026	18d left	-$7.53/sh	-$1,506 cycle +$204 [-$3,036…-$1,146] · 12% credit	81% surv 77%	-$24,736 NOT cap gain +$44,139
budget: banked $1,710 debit $1,506 (88% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$204 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $7,105/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,583/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1020 is $226 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,486
… as % of IC ($50,000)	87.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	22.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,940

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.14/sh (~25% of the $8.55 collected) or spot ≥ $1,028.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,020)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,009.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,010-1,028.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,028.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,020.00 (1.0σ)	$1,710	$-45,198	+$23,677	+$1,262
+2.5%	$1,045.50 (1.3σ)	$-3,390	$-44,830	+$24,045	-$3,838
+5%	$1,071.00 (1.6σ)	$-8,490	$-44,463	+$24,412	-$8,938
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-38,290	$-42,318	+$26,557	-$38,738

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1020): -$43,486

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,943 (+$26,932 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,738, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $990

21 Aug

7.9%

78%hist 86%

46%hist 37%

+5pp

$2,640

$8,800

—

$48,556

Sell 2 × $990 7.9% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $13.77 mid)

= $2,640 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $990)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $1003.77)

81%

EV / mo

+$2,238

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

63% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,110/mo

median; plan ~$2,795/mo after 68% keep · $19,613 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,960

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,122 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $39.59/sh now → $28.00 mid-life (likely $29.54–$44.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,059 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,010 (overshoots $20.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,042	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$5.11/sh	+$1,022 cycle +$3,662 [-$328…+$1,146] · 63% credit	74% surv 67%	-$38,430 NOT cap gain +$30,445
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$990	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.78/sh	+$357 cycle +$2,997 [-$314…+$589] · 50% credit	64% surv 52%	-$50,343 NOT cap gain +$18,532
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$992	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.97/sh	+$194 cycle +$2,834 [-$494…+$375] · 39% credit	65% surv 53%	-$49,978 NOT cap gain +$18,897
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,057	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.73/sh	+$146 cycle +$2,786 [-$1,384…+$206] · 29% credit	76% surv 70%	-$36,090 NOT cap gain +$32,785
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,122	4 Sep 2026	18d left	-$11.76/sh	-$2,351 cycle +$289 [-$4,395…-$2,533] · 2% credit	85% surv 83%	-$24,651 NOT cap gain +$44,224
budget: banked $2,640 debit $2,351 (89% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$289 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,414/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,800/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,683/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $990 is $256 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$48,556
… as % of IC ($50,000)	97.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	24.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-68,990

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.30/sh (~25% of the $13.20 collected) or spot ≥ $1,003.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $990)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $980.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $980-1,003.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,003.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$990.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,640	$-50,700	+$18,175	+$2,192
+2.5%	$1,014.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,310	$-50,343	+$18,532	-$2,758
+5%	$1,039.50 (1.2σ)	$-7,260	$-49,987	+$18,888	-$7,708
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-43,360	$-47,388	+$21,487	-$43,808

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $990): -$48,556

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,013 (+$21,862 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,808, the opportunity cost of earning $8,800/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $940

21 Aug

2.4%

61%hist 71%

81%hist 79%

+8pp

$5,230

$17,433

+$8,633

$55,966

Sell 2 × $940 2.4% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $26.98 mid)

= $5,230 credit for the 9d cycle → $17,433/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $940)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $966.98)

71%

EV / mo

+$1,612

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,841/mo

median; plan ~$3,972/mo after 68% keep · $30,962 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-4.4], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

65%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$87

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,117 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $37.59/sh now → $26.58 mid-life (likely $35.36–$48.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $26.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,959 simulated challenges: the $940 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $961 (overshoots $21.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$987	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$7.33/sh	+$1,466 cycle +$6,696 [-$189…+$772] · 68% credit	74% surv 66%	-$47,188 NOT cap gain +$21,687
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$940	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.67/sh	+$535 cycle +$5,765 [-$333…+$170] · 37% credit	64% surv 52%	-$58,295 NOT cap gain +$10,580
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$942	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.86/sh	+$372 cycle +$5,602 [-$520…-$12] · 25% credit	65% surv 53%	-$57,930 NOT cap gain +$10,945
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,012	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.23/sh	+$46 cycle +$5,276 [-$1,956…-$774] · 9% credit	77% surv 72%	-$43,248 NOT cap gain +$25,627
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,117	4 Sep 2026	18d left	-$17.04/sh	-$3,407 cycle +$1,823 [-$6,503…-$4,613]	90% surv 89%	-$24,189 NOT cap gain +$44,686
budget: banked $5,230 debit $3,407 (65% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,823 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,183/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$17,433/mo
vs 50% target ($8,550/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($17,100/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,316/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $940 is $306 below CC-SS $1245.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$55,966
… as % of IC ($50,000)	111.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	28.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-69,040

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $6.54/sh (~25% of the $26.15 collected) or spot ≥ $966.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $940)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $930.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $931-966.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $966.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$940.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,230	$-58,830	+$10,045	+$4,782
+2.5%	$963.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$530	$-58,491	+$10,384	+$82
+5%	$987.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-4,170	$-58,153	+$10,722	-$4,618
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-50,770	$-54,798	+$14,077	-$51,218

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1245.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,875

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,418

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $940): -$55,966

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,423 (+$14,452 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,205 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,218, the opportunity cost of earning $17,433/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (133 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 133 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.072 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$70,418 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,205

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$990	2d	14 Aug 2026	$2.99	2/2	$8,970	$8,853	94%	94%	+$7,068	-$50,598	101.2%	$-49,055 (vs do-nothing $-45,850)
$985	2d	14 Aug 2026	$3.40	2/2	$10,200	$10,083	92%	93%	+$7,670	-$51,516	103.0%	$-49,973 (vs do-nothing $-46,768)
$980	2d	14 Aug 2026	$3.85	2/2	$11,550	$11,433	86%	87%	+$3,725	-$52,426	104.9%	$-50,883 (vs do-nothing $-47,678)
$975	2d	14 Aug 2026	$4.45	2/2	$13,350	$13,233	84%	86%	+$4,028	-$53,306	106.6%	$-51,763 (vs do-nothing $-48,558)
$970	2d	14 Aug 2026	$5.10	2/2	$15,300	$15,183	82%	85%	+$4,212	-$54,176	108.4%	$-52,633 (vs do-nothing $-49,428)
$965	2d	14 Aug 2026	$5.80	1/2	$8,700	$9,003	80%	83%	+$2,120	-$27,518	55.0%	$-28,349 (vs do-nothing $-25,144)
$962.50	2d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	1/2	$8,850	$9,153	79%	82%	+$1,688	-$27,758	55.5%	$-28,589 (vs do-nothing $-25,384)
$960	2d	14 Aug 2026	$6.65	1/2	$9,975	$10,278	78%	81%	+$2,185	-$27,933	55.9%	$-28,764 (vs do-nothing $-25,559)
$990	9d	21 Aug 2026	$13.20	2/2	$8,800	$8,683	78%	81%	+$2,238	-$48,556	97.1%	$-47,013 (vs do-nothing $-43,808)
$970	5d	17 Aug 2026	$7.95	2/2	$9,540	$9,423	78%	81%	+$1,398	-$53,606	107.2%	$-52,063 (vs do-nothing $-48,858)
$957.50	2d	14 Aug 2026	$6.95	1/2	$10,425	$10,728	77%	80%	+$1,958	-$28,153	56.3%	$-28,984 (vs do-nothing $-25,779)
$965	5d	17 Aug 2026	$9.05	2/2	$10,860	$10,743	76%	80%	+$1,596	-$54,386	108.8%	$-52,843 (vs do-nothing $-49,638)
$985	9d	21 Aug 2026	$14.20	2/2	$9,467	$9,349	76%	80%	+$1,586	-$49,356	98.7%	$-47,813 (vs do-nothing $-44,608)

Show 120 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 120.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$975	7d	19 Aug 2026	$10.50	2/2	$9,000	$8,883	75%	80%	+$493	-$52,096	104.2%	$-50,553 (vs do-nothing $-47,348)
$955	2d	14 Aug 2026	$7.40	1/2	$11,100	$11,403	75%	79%	+$1,906	-$28,358	56.7%	$-29,189 (vs do-nothing $-25,984)
$980	9d	21 Aug 2026	$15.30	2/2	$10,200	$10,083	74%	79%	+$1,626	-$50,136	100.3%	$-48,593 (vs do-nothing $-45,388)
$970	7d	19 Aug 2026	$12.10	2/2	$10,371	$10,254	74%	79%	+$968	-$52,776	105.6%	$-51,233 (vs do-nothing $-48,028)
$960	5d	17 Aug 2026	$9.90	2/2	$11,880	$11,763	74%	78%	+$1,358	-$55,216	110.4%	$-53,673 (vs do-nothing $-50,468)
$975	9d	21 Aug 2026	$16.45	2/2	$10,967	$10,849	73%	78%	+$1,645	-$50,906	101.8%	$-49,363 (vs do-nothing $-46,158)
$990	16d	28 Aug 2026	$23.25	2/2	$8,719	$8,602	73%	78%	+$1,688	-$46,546	93.1%	$-45,003 (vs do-nothing $-41,798)
$950	2d	14 Aug 2026	$8.65	1/2	$12,975	$13,278	73%	77%	+$2,163	-$28,733	57.5%	$-29,564 (vs do-nothing $-26,359)
$965	7d	19 Aug 2026	$13.05	2/2	$11,186	$11,068	72%	77%	+$804	-$53,586	107.2%	$-52,043 (vs do-nothing $-48,838)
$985	16d	28 Aug 2026	$23.55	2/2	$8,831	$8,714	71%	77%	+$1,178	-$47,486	95.0%	$-45,943 (vs do-nothing $-42,738)
$955	5d	17 Aug 2026	$11.10	2/2	$13,320	$13,203	71%	76%	+$1,394	-$55,976	112.0%	$-54,433 (vs do-nothing $-51,228)
$970	9d	21 Aug 2026	$17.65	2/2	$11,767	$11,649	71%	77%	+$1,641	-$51,666	103.3%	$-50,123 (vs do-nothing $-46,918)
$980	16d	28 Aug 2026	$25.80	2/2	$9,675	$9,558	70%	76%	+$1,536	-$48,036	96.1%	$-46,493 (vs do-nothing $-43,288)
$960	7d	19 Aug 2026	$13.80	2/2	$11,829	$11,711	70%	76%	+$236	-$54,436	108.9%	$-52,893 (vs do-nothing $-49,688)
$945	2d	14 Aug 2026	$9.75	1/2	$14,625	$14,928	70%	76%	+$1,957	-$29,123	58.2%	$-29,954 (vs do-nothing $-26,749)
$965	9d	21 Aug 2026	$18.85	2/2	$12,567	$12,449	70%	76%	+$1,578	-$52,426	104.9%	$-50,883 (vs do-nothing $-47,678)
$985	23d	4 Sep 2026	$32.90	2/2	$8,583	$8,465	69%	76%	+$1,218	-$45,616	91.2%	$-44,073 (vs do-nothing $-40,868)
$950	5d	17 Aug 2026	$12.60	2/2	$15,120	$15,003	69%	75%	+$1,632	-$56,676	113.4%	$-55,133 (vs do-nothing $-51,928)
$975	16d	28 Aug 2026	$27.05	2/2	$10,144	$10,027	69%	76%	+$1,494	-$48,786	97.6%	$-47,243 (vs do-nothing $-44,038)
$962.50	9d	21 Aug 2026	$19.55	2/2	$13,033	$12,916	69%	75%	+$1,590	-$52,786	105.6%	$-51,243 (vs do-nothing $-48,038)
$955	7d	19 Aug 2026	$14.80	2/2	$12,686	$12,568	68%	75%	+$74	-$55,236	110.5%	$-53,693 (vs do-nothing $-50,488)
$980	23d	4 Sep 2026	$34.30	2/2	$8,948	$8,831	68%	75%	+$1,211	-$46,336	92.7%	$-44,793 (vs do-nothing $-41,588)
$960	9d	21 Aug 2026	$20.25	2/2	$13,500	$13,383	68%	75%	+$1,585	-$53,146	106.3%	$-51,603 (vs do-nothing $-48,398)
$970	16d	28 Aug 2026	$27.60	2/2	$10,350	$10,233	68%	75%	+$1,161	-$49,676	99.4%	$-48,133 (vs do-nothing $-44,928)
$957.50	9d	21 Aug 2026	$20.85	2/2	$13,900	$13,783	67%	74%	+$2,049	-$53,526	107.1%	$-51,983 (vs do-nothing $-48,778)
$975	23d	4 Sep 2026	$35.35	2/2	$9,222	$9,105	67%	75%	+$1,097	-$47,126	94.3%	$-45,583 (vs do-nothing $-42,378)
$940	2d	14 Aug 2026	$10.95	1/2	$16,425	$16,728	67%	74%	+$1,635	-$29,503	59.0%	$-30,334 (vs do-nothing $-27,129)
$945	5d	17 Aug 2026	$13.30	2/2	$15,960	$15,843	67%	73%	+$741	-$57,536	115.1%	$-55,993 (vs do-nothing $-52,788)
$965	16d	28 Aug 2026	$29.90	2/2	$11,212	$11,095	66%	74%	+$1,457	-$50,216	100.4%	$-48,673 (vs do-nothing $-45,468)
$955	9d	21 Aug 2026	$21.65	2/2	$14,433	$14,316	66%	73%	+$1,527	-$53,866	107.7%	$-52,323 (vs do-nothing $-49,118)
$950	7d	19 Aug 2026	$16.90	2/2	$14,486	$14,368	66%	74%	+$614	-$55,816	111.6%	$-54,273 (vs do-nothing $-51,068)
$970	23d	4 Sep 2026	$37.40	2/2	$9,757	$9,639	66%	74%	+$1,227	-$47,716	95.4%	$-46,173 (vs do-nothing $-42,968)
$960	16d	28 Aug 2026	$30.60	2/2	$11,475	$11,358	65%	73%	+$1,123	-$51,076	102.2%	$-49,533 (vs do-nothing $-46,328)
$965	23d	4 Sep 2026	$39.15	2/2	$10,213	$10,096	65%	73%	+$1,261	-$48,366	96.7%	$-46,823 (vs do-nothing $-43,618)
$950	9d	21 Aug 2026	$23.20	2/2	$15,467	$15,349	65%	73%	+$2,019	-$54,556	109.1%	$-53,013 (vs do-nothing $-49,808)
$945	7d	19 Aug 2026	$17.80	2/2	$15,257	$15,140	64%	73%	+$22	-$56,636	113.3%	$-55,093 (vs do-nothing $-51,888)
$940	5d	17 Aug 2026	$14.80	1/2	$8,880	$9,183	64%	72%	+$316	-$29,118	58.2%	$-29,949 (vs do-nothing $-26,744)
$955	16d	28 Aug 2026	$33.15	2/2	$12,431	$12,314	64%	72%	+$1,453	-$51,566	103.1%	$-50,023 (vs do-nothing $-46,818)
$960	23d	4 Sep 2026	$40.15	2/2	$10,474	$10,357	64%	73%	+$1,082	-$49,166	98.3%	$-47,623 (vs do-nothing $-44,418)
$935	2d	14 Aug 2026	$12.50	1/2	$18,750	$19,053	63%	72%	+$1,552	-$29,848	59.7%	$-30,679 (vs do-nothing $-27,474)
$945	9d	21 Aug 2026	$24.80	2/2	$16,533	$16,416	63%	71%	+$1,439	-$55,236	110.5%	$-53,693 (vs do-nothing $-50,488)
$955	23d	4 Sep 2026	$42.10	2/2	$10,983	$10,865	63%	72%	+$1,133	-$49,776	99.6%	$-48,233 (vs do-nothing $-45,028)
$950	16d	28 Aug 2026	$34.75	2/2	$13,031	$12,914	62%	72%	+$1,396	-$52,246	104.5%	$-50,703 (vs do-nothing $-47,498)
$940	7d	19 Aug 2026	$19.50	2/2	$16,714	$16,597	62%	71%	+$8	-$57,296	114.6%	$-55,753 (vs do-nothing $-52,548)
$932.50	2d	14 Aug 2026	$13.30	1/2	$19,950	$20,253	62%	71%	+$1,438	-$30,018	60.0%	$-30,849 (vs do-nothing $-27,644)
$945	14d	26 Aug 2026	$30.55	2/2	$13,093	$12,976	62%	72%	+$1,199	-$54,086	108.2%	$-52,543 (vs do-nothing $-49,338)
$950	23d	4 Sep 2026	$43.95	2/2	$11,465	$11,348	61%	71%	+$1,139	-$50,406	100.8%	$-48,863 (vs do-nothing $-45,658)
$935	5d	17 Aug 2026	$16.40	1/2	$9,840	$10,143	61%	70%	+$227	-$29,458	58.9%	$-30,289 (vs do-nothing $-27,084)
$940	9d	21 Aug 2026	$26.15	1/2	$8,717	$9,019	61%	71%	+$806	-$27,983	56.0%	$-28,814 (vs do-nothing $-25,609)
$945	16d	28 Aug 2026	$36.20	2/2	$13,575	$13,458	61%	71%	+$1,250	-$52,956	105.9%	$-51,413 (vs do-nothing $-48,208)
$945	23d	4 Sep 2026	$45.65	2/2	$11,909	$11,791	60%	71%	+$1,088	-$51,066	102.1%	$-49,523 (vs do-nothing $-46,318)
$930	2d	14 Aug 2026	$14.05	1/2	$21,075	$21,378	60%	70%	+$1,177	-$30,193	60.4%	$-31,024 (vs do-nothing $-27,819)
$940	14d	26 Aug 2026	$31.45	2/2	$13,479	$13,361	60%	71%	+$767	-$54,906	109.8%	$-53,363 (vs do-nothing $-50,158)
$935	7d	19 Aug 2026	$20.95	1/2	$8,979	$9,281	60%	70%	$-167	-$29,003	58.0%	$-29,834 (vs do-nothing $-26,629)
$940	16d	28 Aug 2026	$38.30	2/2	$14,362	$14,245	59%	70%	+$1,317	-$53,536	107.1%	$-51,993 (vs do-nothing $-48,788)
$935	9d	21 Aug 2026	$27.80	1/2	$9,267	$9,569	59%	70%	+$707	-$28,318	56.6%	$-29,149 (vs do-nothing $-25,944)
$940	23d	4 Sep 2026	$47.15	2/2	$12,300	$12,183	59%	70%	+$965	-$51,766	103.5%	$-50,223 (vs do-nothing $-47,018)
$930	5d	17 Aug 2026	$18.40	1/2	$11,040	$11,343	59%	69%	+$281	-$29,758	59.5%	$-30,589 (vs do-nothing $-27,384)
$935	14d	26 Aug 2026	$33.25	2/2	$14,250	$14,133	58%	70%	+$680	-$55,546	111.1%	$-54,003 (vs do-nothing $-50,798)
$927.50	2d	14 Aug 2026	$14.90	1/2	$22,350	$22,653	58%	69%	+$990	-$30,358	60.7%	$-31,189 (vs do-nothing $-27,984)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-12 21:39