FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $976.63

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1194.32 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-04 03:45 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $976.63 UNDERWATER $243.37 (19.9% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1194.32 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$52,098/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$516/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-41,632	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$26,049/mo

HEDGE COVER
$516/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$52,098/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1194 (probe: $1190C 13d) brings only $9,231/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER — realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$39,183

was $41,632 · 6% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$1,207.92 → $1,194.32

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 81 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 33 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,184.60 (+21%) · daily UBB $1,236.91 · 1-wk expected move ±$141 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1065 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($26,049/mo); it brings $27,150/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1052/6d for $53,466/mo, but breach risk rises to 27% (+3pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1255/6d (97% survival, $1,950/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $20,433 (41% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-41,837 and cuts bleed by $516/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 2 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1065 (primary) — 76% survival, breach 24%, $27,150/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1165 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 24% → 16%) for $9,125/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1165 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 2×$1065, 9.0% OTM, 76% surv

Sell 2 × $1065 9.0% OTM over spot $976.63 10 Jul 2026 (6d, $28.17 mid)

= $5,430 credit for the 6d cycle → $27,150/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1065)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $1093.17)

82%

EV / mo

+$12,310

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3–1.8] median · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,018

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

36%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$11,115

Free roll-up

+$33/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$1,098 @ 77% POP

61% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $116.94/sh now → $82.72 mid-life (likely $92.21–$140.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $27.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$55.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,076 simulated challenges: the $1,065 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $1,098 (overshoots $32.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,065	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$23.29/sh	+$4,657 cycle +$10,087 [+$399…+$4,808] · 79% credit	74% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,103	24 Jul 2026	17d left	+$20.70/sh	+$4,140 cycle +$9,570 [-$1,779…+$3,944] · 60% credit	75% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,113	24 Jul 2026	17d left	+$15.72/sh	+$3,144 cycle +$8,574 [-$2,909…+$2,897] · 47% credit	76% surv 62%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,098	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$4.53/sh	+$906 cycle +$6,336 [-$4,045…+$625] · 30% credit	77% surv 61%

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$27,150/mo
vs 50% target ($26,049/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($52,098/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$26,634/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1065 is $129 below CC-SS $1194: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,433
… as % of IC ($50,000)	40.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	10.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-41,837

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $6.79/sh (~25% of the $27.15 collected) or spot ≥ $1,093.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,065)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,054.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,054-1,093.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,093.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,065.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,430	$-20,295	+$21,337	+$2,280
+2.5%	$1,091.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$105	$-20,828	+$20,804	-$3,045
+5%	$1,118.25 (1.1σ)	$-5,220	$-21,360	+$20,272	-$8,370
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-25,570	$-23,395	+$18,237	-$28,720

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1194.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,632

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,183

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1065): -$20,433

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,882 (+$18,750 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $701 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,583, the opportunity cost of earning $27,150/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,490, position total $-22,687 (+$18,945 vs today)

33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 2×$1165, 19.3% OTM, 84% surv

Sell 2 × $1165 19.3% OTM over spot $976.63 17 Jul 2026 (13d, $41.11 mid)

= $7,811 credit for the 13d cycle → $18,025/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1165)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $1206.11)

88%

EV / mo

+$12,044

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4–1.9] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,712

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$13,687

Free roll-up

+$13/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,213 @ 75% POP

62% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 13); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $151.89/sh now → $107.49 mid-life (likely $103.43–$158.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $39.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$68.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 792 simulated challenges: the $1,165 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 13, at $1,203 (overshoots $37.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,165	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$7.94/sh	+$1,587 cycle +$9,398 [-$1,446…+$3,363] · 56% credit	72% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,178	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.65/sh	+$130 cycle +$7,941 [-$3,073…+$1,652] · 38% credit	73% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,178	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.65/sh	+$130 cycle +$7,941 [-$3,073…+$1,652] · 38% credit	73% surv 56%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,213	24 Jul 2026	14d left	-$17.40/sh	-$3,479 cycle +$4,332 [-$7,308…-$2,341] · 13% credit	75% surv 62%
budget: banked $7,811 debit $3,479 (45% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,332 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $38,611/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$18,025/mo
vs 50% target ($26,049/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($52,098/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,509/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1165 is at/above CC-SS $1194: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-42,043

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.76/sh (~25% of the $39.05 collected) or spot ≥ $1,206.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 7d left	3-6d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,153.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,153-1,206.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,206.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,165.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,811	$86	+$41,718	+$4,661
+2.5%	$1,194.12 (1.1σ)	$1,986	$-497	+$41,135	-$1,164
+5%	$1,223.25 (1.3σ)	$-3,839	$-1,080	+$40,552	-$6,339

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1194.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,632

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,183

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1165): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,449 (+$39,183 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $701 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,150, the opportunity cost of earning $18,025/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-4,197 (+$37,435 vs today)

100% normal · sell 2×$1052, 7.8% OTM, 73% surv

Sell 2 × $1052 7.8% OTM over spot $976.63 10 Jul 2026 (6d, $56.28 mid)

= $10,693 credit for the 6d cycle → $53,466/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1052)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $1108.78)

84%

EV / mo

+$35,783

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.3–1.4] median — 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,184

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

42%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,657

Free roll-up

+$33/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$1,241 @ 89% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $115.57/sh now → $81.75 mid-life (likely $94.65–$150.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $53.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$28.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,270 simulated challenges: the $1,052 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $1,089 (overshoots $36.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,052	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$23.55/sh	+$4,709 cycle +$15,402 [-$409…+$4,352] · 72% credit	74% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,081	24 Jul 2026	17d left	+$25.92/sh	+$5,185 cycle +$15,878 [-$1,615…+$4,462] · 63% credit	75% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,101	24 Jul 2026	17d left	+$15.87/sh	+$3,175 cycle +$13,868 [-$3,977…+$2,282] · 44% credit	76% surv 62%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,086	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$4.79/sh	+$958 cycle +$11,651 [-$4,875…+$221] · 27% credit	77% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,241	17 Jul 2026	10d left	-$51.54/sh	-$10,308 cycle +$385 [-$19,897…-$12,172]	89% surv 86%
budget: banked $10,693 debit $10,308 (96% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$385 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $18,127/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$53,466/mo
vs 50% target ($26,049/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($52,098/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$52,950/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1052 is $142 below CC-SS $1194: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,670
… as % of IC ($50,000)	35.3%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	8.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-42,195

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $13.37/sh (~25% of the $53.47 collected) or spot ≥ $1,108.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,052)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,041.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,042-1,108.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,108.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,052.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$10,693	$-17,282	+$24,350	+$7,543
+2.5%	$1,078.81 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,431	$-17,808	+$23,824	+$2,281
+5%	$1,105.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$168	$-18,335	+$23,297	-$2,982
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-22,807	$-20,632	+$21,000	-$25,957

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1194.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,632

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,183

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1052): -$17,670

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,119 (+$21,513 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $701 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,820, the opportunity cost of earning $53,466/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,727, position total $-19,924 (+$21,708 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 1×$1255, 28.5% OTM, 97% surv

Sell 1 × $1255 28.5% OTM over spot $976.63 10 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.20 mid)

= $390 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,950/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1255)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1259.20)

97%

EV / mo

+$1,576

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4–2.3] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,124

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,358

Free roll-up

+$13/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,303 @ 76% POP

61% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $137.81/sh now → $97.48 mid-life (likely $70.92–$135.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$93.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 114 simulated challenges: the $1,255 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $1,291 (overshoots $35.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,255	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$17.78/sh	+$1,778 cycle +$2,168 [+$1,031…+$4,246] · 83% credit	74% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,268	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$10.23/sh	+$1,023 cycle +$1,413 [+$115…+$3,427] · 76% credit	75% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,303	24 Jul 2026	17d left	+$11.55/sh	+$1,155 cycle +$1,545 [-$390…+$3,786] · 72% credit	76% surv 61%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,950/mo
vs 50% target ($26,049/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($52,098/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,068/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1255 is at/above CC-SS $1194: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-20,846

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,259.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,242.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,242-1,259.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,259.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,255.00 (2.1σ)	$390	$6,940	+$48,572	+$2,315
+2.5%	$1,286.38 (2.4σ)	$-2,748	$6,312	+$47,944	+$2,315
+5%	$1,317.75 (2.6σ)	$-5,885	$5,685	+$47,317	+$2,315

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1194.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,632

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,183

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1255): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $1220): +$1,575

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-874 (+$40,758 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $701 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,575, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,622 (+$39,010 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 53 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$39,183 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $701

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1065	6d	10 Jul 2026	$27.15	2/2	$27,150	$26,634	76%	82%	+$12,310	-$20,433	40.9%	$-22,882 (vs do-nothing $-23,583)
$1060	6d	10 Jul 2026	$28.70	2/2	$28,700	$28,184	75%	81%	+$12,772	-$21,123	42.2%	$-23,572 (vs do-nothing $-24,273)
$1055	6d	10 Jul 2026	$29.50	2/2	$29,500	$28,984	74%	80%	+$12,419	-$21,963	43.9%	$-24,412 (vs do-nothing $-25,113)
$1052	6d	10 Jul 2026	$53.47	1/2	$26,733	$29,851	73%	84%	+$17,892	-$8,835	17.7%	$-9,709 (vs do-nothing $-10,410)
$1050	6d	10 Jul 2026	$31.40	2/2	$31,400	$30,884	73%	80%	+$13,098	-$22,583	45.2%	$-25,032 (vs do-nothing $-25,733)
$1048	6d	10 Jul 2026	$55.66	1/2	$27,830	$30,949	72%	84%	+$18,361	-$9,116	18.2%	$-9,989 (vs do-nothing $-10,691)
$1045	6d	10 Jul 2026	$31.65	2/2	$31,650	$31,134	72%	79%	+$12,058	-$23,533	47.1%	$-25,982 (vs do-nothing $-26,683)
$1042	6d	10 Jul 2026	$57.86	1/2	$28,932	$32,051	71%	84%	+$18,800	-$9,395	18.8%	$-10,269 (vs do-nothing $-10,970)
$1040	6d	10 Jul 2026	$34.05	2/2	$34,050	$33,534	70%	78%	+$13,095	-$24,053	48.1%	$-26,502 (vs do-nothing $-27,203)
$1038	6d	10 Jul 2026	$60.07	1/2	$30,034	$33,153	70%	83%	+$19,202	-$9,675	19.3%	$-10,548 (vs do-nothing $-11,250)
$1035	6d	10 Jul 2026	$35.70	2/2	$35,700	$35,184	69%	78%	+$13,307	-$24,723	49.4%	$-27,172 (vs do-nothing $-27,873)
$1032	6d	10 Jul 2026	$62.28	1/2	$31,141	$34,259	69%	83%	+$19,732	-$9,953	19.9%	$-10,827 (vs do-nothing $-11,528)
$1030	6d	10 Jul 2026	$67.27	1/2	$33,635	$36,753	68%	83%	+$21,856	-$9,705	19.4%	$-10,578 (vs do-nothing $-11,280)

Show 40 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1028	6d	10 Jul 2026	$68.40	1/2	$34,200	$37,318	67%	83%	+$22,042	-$9,842	19.7%	$-10,715 (vs do-nothing $-11,417)
$1025	6d	10 Jul 2026	$69.79	1/2	$34,893	$38,012	67%	83%	+$22,348	-$9,953	19.9%	$-10,826 (vs do-nothing $-11,528)
$1022	6d	10 Jul 2026	$71.16	1/2	$35,582	$38,701	66%	83%	+$22,638	-$10,065	20.1%	$-10,939 (vs do-nothing $-11,640)
$1020	6d	10 Jul 2026	$72.55	1/2	$36,276	$39,394	65%	82%	+$22,924	-$10,176	20.4%	$-11,050 (vs do-nothing $-11,751)
$1018	6d	10 Jul 2026	$73.93	1/2	$36,964	$40,083	65%	82%	+$23,196	-$10,289	20.6%	$-11,162 (vs do-nothing $-11,864)
$1030	13d	17 Jul 2026	$58.65	2/2	$27,069	$26,553	64%	74%	+$6,989	-$21,133	42.3%	$-23,582 (vs do-nothing $-24,283)
$1015	6d	10 Jul 2026	$75.31	1/2	$37,653	$40,772	64%	82%	+$23,457	-$10,401	20.8%	$-11,274 (vs do-nothing $-11,976)
$1012	6d	10 Jul 2026	$76.69	1/2	$38,347	$41,465	63%	82%	+$23,713	-$10,512	21.0%	$-11,386 (vs do-nothing $-12,087)
$1025	20d	24 Jul 2026	$102.49	2/2	$30,746	$30,229	63%	77%	+$12,589	-$13,366	26.7%	$-15,815 (vs do-nothing $-16,516)
$1010	6d	10 Jul 2026	$78.07	1/2	$39,036	$42,154	62%	82%	+$23,955	-$10,624	21.2%	$-11,498 (vs do-nothing $-12,199)
$1020	20d	24 Jul 2026	$104.95	2/2	$31,484	$30,968	62%	77%	+$12,769	-$13,874	27.7%	$-16,322 (vs do-nothing $-17,024)
$1008	6d	10 Jul 2026	$79.46	1/2	$39,729	$42,847	62%	82%	+$24,191	-$10,736	21.5%	$-11,609 (vs do-nothing $-12,311)
$1005	6d	10 Jul 2026	$80.84	1/2	$40,418	$43,536	61%	81%	+$24,411	-$10,848	21.7%	$-11,722 (vs do-nothing $-12,423)
$1015	20d	24 Jul 2026	$107.42	2/2	$32,225	$31,709	61%	76%	+$12,938	-$14,380	28.8%	$-16,828 (vs do-nothing $-17,530)
$1010	13d	17 Jul 2026	$96.48	2/2	$44,530	$44,014	61%	78%	+$21,138	-$17,567	35.1%	$-20,015 (vs do-nothing $-20,717)
$1002	6d	10 Jul 2026	$82.21	1/2	$41,107	$44,225	60%	81%	+$24,622	-$10,960	21.9%	$-11,834 (vs do-nothing $-12,535)
$1010	20d	24 Jul 2026	$109.89	2/2	$32,966	$32,450	60%	76%	+$13,093	-$14,886	29.8%	$-17,334 (vs do-nothing $-18,036)
$1000	6d	10 Jul 2026	$83.60	1/2	$41,800	$44,918	60%	81%	+$24,826	-$11,072	22.1%	$-11,945 (vs do-nothing $-12,647)
$1005	20d	24 Jul 2026	$112.43	2/2	$33,730	$33,213	59%	76%	+$13,257	-$15,377	30.8%	$-17,825 (vs do-nothing $-18,527)
$1000	20d	24 Jul 2026	$114.98	2/2	$34,494	$33,977	59%	75%	+$13,407	-$15,867	31.7%	$-18,316 (vs do-nothing $-19,017)
$995	6d	10 Jul 2026	$86.36	1/2	$43,178	$46,296	58%	81%	+$25,194	-$11,296	22.6%	$-12,170 (vs do-nothing $-12,871)
$995	20d	24 Jul 2026	$117.52	2/2	$35,257	$34,741	58%	75%	+$13,543	-$16,358	32.7%	$-18,807 (vs do-nothing $-19,508)
$990	20d	24 Jul 2026	$120.07	2/2	$36,021	$35,505	57%	75%	+$13,665	-$16,849	33.7%	$-19,298 (vs do-nothing $-19,999)
$990	6d	10 Jul 2026	$89.12	1/2	$44,560	$47,678	57%	80%	+$25,523	-$11,520	23.0%	$-12,393 (vs do-nothing $-13,095)
$990	13d	17 Jul 2026	$107.41	2/2	$49,572	$49,056	57%	76%	+$22,387	-$19,382	38.8%	$-21,830 (vs do-nothing $-22,532)
$985	20d	24 Jul 2026	$122.63	2/2	$36,788	$36,271	56%	75%	+$13,775	-$17,338	34.7%	$-19,787 (vs do-nothing $-20,488)
$980	20d	24 Jul 2026	$125.17	2/2	$37,552	$37,035	55%	74%	+$13,868	-$17,829	35.7%	$-20,277 (vs do-nothing $-20,979)
$985	6d	10 Jul 2026	$92.24	1/2	$46,122	$49,241	55%	80%	+$25,989	-$11,707	23.4%	$-12,581 (vs do-nothing $-13,282)
$980	13d	17 Jul 2026	$112.88	1/2	$26,049	$29,167	55%	76%	+$11,426	-$10,144	20.3%	$-11,017 (vs do-nothing $-11,719)
$975	20d	24 Jul 2026	$128.00	2/2	$38,401	$37,885	55%	74%	+$14,031	-$18,263	36.5%	$-20,711 (vs do-nothing $-21,413)
$970	20d	24 Jul 2026	$130.84	2/2	$39,253	$38,737	54%	74%	+$14,183	-$18,694	37.4%	$-21,143 (vs do-nothing $-21,844)
$980	6d	10 Jul 2026	$95.36	1/2	$47,680	$50,799	54%	79%	+$26,406	-$11,895	23.8%	$-12,769 (vs do-nothing $-13,470)
$965	20d	24 Jul 2026	$133.72	2/2	$40,117	$39,600	53%	74%	+$14,331	-$19,119	38.2%	$-21,567 (vs do-nothing $-22,269)
$970	13d	17 Jul 2026	$118.53	1/2	$27,353	$30,472	53%	75%	+$11,644	-$10,578	21.2%	$-11,452 (vs do-nothing $-12,153)
$975	6d	10 Jul 2026	$98.48	1/2	$49,238	$52,357	52%	79%	+$26,779	-$12,084	24.2%	$-12,957 (vs do-nothing $-13,659)
$960	20d	24 Jul 2026	$136.61	2/2	$40,983	$40,467	52%	73%	+$14,467	-$19,541	39.1%	$-21,990 (vs do-nothing $-22,691)
$970	6d	10 Jul 2026	$101.65	1/2	$50,825	$53,943	51%	79%	+$27,134	-$12,267	24.5%	$-13,140 (vs do-nothing $-13,842)
$960	13d	17 Jul 2026	$124.61	1/2	$28,756	$31,875	50%	75%	+$11,904	-$10,970	21.9%	$-11,844 (vs do-nothing $-12,545)
$965	6d	10 Jul 2026	$104.82	1/2	$52,412	$55,530	49%	78%	+$27,445	-$12,449	24.9%	$-13,323 (vs do-nothing $-14,024)
$960	6d	10 Jul 2026	$108.00	1/2	$53,998	$57,116	48%	78%	+$27,710	-$12,632	25.3%	$-13,506 (vs do-nothing $-14,207)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-04 03:45