FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $1005.04

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1230.98 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-06 21:43 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $1005.04 UNDERWATER $214.96 (17.6% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1230.98 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$33,431/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$597/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-48,945	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$16,715/mo

HEDGE COVER
$597/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$33,431/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $1231 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $1070C (14d, $21,793/mo — a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER — realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$46,496

was $48,945 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$1,242.87 → $1,230.98

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 80 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 37 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,224.46 (+22%) · daily UBB $1,226.62 · 1-wk expected move ±$150 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1125 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 75%, breach 25%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($16,715/mo); it brings $16,991/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1050/7d for $36,857/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+11pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1270/11d (90% survival, $2,836/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $14,965 (30% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-49,120 and cuts bleed by $597/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 2 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1125 (primary) — 75% survival, breach 25%, $16,991/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1180 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 25% → 18%) for $5,891/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1180 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 2×$1125, 11.9% OTM, 75% surv

Sell 2 × $1125 11.9% OTM over spot $1,005.04 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $32.02 mid)

= $6,230 credit for the 11d cycle → $16,991/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1125)

75%

Breach risk

25%

POP (stays ≤ $1157.03)

80%

EV / mo

+$3,316

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.3–2.1] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,438

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

43%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,637

Free roll-up

+$23/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,280 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $83.85/sh now → $59.34 mid-life (likely $66.71–$96.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $31.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$28.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,286 simulated challenges: the $1,125 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $1,165 (overshoots $39.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,125	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$5.77/sh	+$1,154 cycle +$7,384 [+$59…+$1,260] · 79% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,155	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$7.20/sh	+$1,440 cycle +$7,670 [-$231…+$1,412] · 64% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,170	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.69/sh	+$337 cycle +$6,567 [-$1,524…+$157] · 29% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,135	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.49/sh	+$97 cycle +$6,327 [-$1,218…+$32] · 26% credit	68% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,280	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$30.41/sh	-$6,083 cycle +$147 [-$9,903…-$6,890]	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $6,230 debit $6,083 (98% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$147 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,461/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$16,991/mo
vs 50% target ($16,715/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($33,431/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$16,394/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1125 is $106 below CC-SS $1231: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,965
… as % of IC ($50,000)	29.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	7.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-49,120

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $7.79/sh (~25% of the $31.15 collected) or spot ≥ $1,157.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,113.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,114-1,157.03	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,157.03	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,125.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,230	$-18,028	+$30,917	+$3,230
+2.5%	$1,153.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$605	$-17,865	+$31,080	-$2,395
+5%	$1,181.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-5,020	$-17,702	+$31,243	-$8,020
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.1σ)	$-12,770	$-17,477	+$31,468	-$15,770

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,496

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1125): -$14,965

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,414 (+$31,531 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,644 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,770, the opportunity cost of earning $16,991/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 2×$1180, 17.4% OTM, 82% surv

Sell 2 × $1180 17.4% OTM over spot $1,005.04 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $21.25 mid)

= $4,070 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,100/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1180)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $1201.25)

85%

EV / mo

+$2,812

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4–1.9] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,721

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,377

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,285 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $87.95/sh now → $62.24 mid-life (likely $60.00–$93.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$41.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 887 simulated challenges: the $1,180 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $1,220 (overshoots $39.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,180	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$4.61/sh	+$922 cycle +$4,992 [+$67…+$1,842] · 77% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,210	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$6.30/sh	+$1,260 cycle +$5,330 [-$126…+$2,340] · 72% credit	71% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,185	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.52/sh	+$504 cycle +$4,574 [-$421…+$1,345] · 56% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,225	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.75/sh	+$151 cycle +$4,221 [-$1,452…+$1,004] · 39% credit	72% surv 62%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,285	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$20.11/sh	-$4,021 cycle +$49 [-$6,566…-$3,581] · 4% credit	78% surv 72%
budget: banked $4,070 debit $4,021 (99% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $21,065/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,100/mo
vs 50% target ($16,715/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($33,431/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,503/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1180 is $51 below CC-SS $1231: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,125
… as % of IC ($50,000)	12.3%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	3.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-49,125

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.09/sh (~25% of the $20.35 collected) or spot ≥ $1,201.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,168.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,168-1,201.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,201.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,180.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,070	$-8,869	+$40,076	+$1,070
+2.5%	$1,209.50 (1.1σ)	$-1,830	$-8,698	+$40,247	-$4,830
+5%	$1,239.00 (1.2σ)	$-7,730	$-8,527	+$40,418	-$6,930

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,496

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1180): -$6,125

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,574 (+$40,371 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,644 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,930, the opportunity cost of earning $11,100/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 2×$1050, 4.5% OTM, 64% surv

Sell 2 × $1050 4.5% OTM over spot $1,005.04 13 Jul 2026 (7d, $47.38 mid)

= $8,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $36,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1050)

64%

Breach risk

36%

POP (stays ≤ $1097.38)

74%

EV / mo

+$5,976

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3–1.8] median — 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~9.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,306

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

59%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,663

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$1,265 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $72.53/sh now → $51.32 mid-life (likely $66.81–$96.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $43.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,767 simulated challenges: the $1,050 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,090 (overshoots $39.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,095	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$12.60/sh	+$2,520 cycle +$11,120 [-$666…+$1,404] · 61% credit	72% surv 62%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,050	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$8.60/sh	+$1,721 cycle +$10,321 [-$574…+$958] · 58% credit	66% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,055	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$6.28/sh	+$1,257 cycle +$9,857 [-$1,160…+$398] · 35% credit	67% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,125	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.92/sh	+$385 cycle +$8,985 [-$3,314…-$914] · 15% credit	75% surv 67%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,265	17 Jul 2026	8d left	-$42.50/sh	-$8,500 cycle +$100 [-$15,126…-$10,767]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $8,600 debit $8,500 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$100 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $6,614/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$36,857/mo
vs 50% target ($16,715/mo)	+120%
vs normal income ($33,431/mo)	110% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$36,260/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1050 is $181 below CC-SS $1231: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,595
… as % of IC ($50,000)	55.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	13.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-49,820

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.75/sh (~25% of the $43.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,097.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,050)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,039.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,040-1,097.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,097.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,050.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,600	$-31,093	+$17,852	+$5,600
+2.5%	$1,076.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,350	$-30,941	+$18,004	+$350
+5%	$1,102.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,900	$-30,789	+$18,156	-$4,900
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.4σ)	$-25,400	$-30,107	+$18,838	-$28,400

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,496

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1050): -$27,595

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,044 (+$18,901 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,644 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,400, the opportunity cost of earning $36,857/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 1×$1270, 26.4% OTM, 90% surv

Sell 1 × $1270 26.4% OTM over spot $1,005.04 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $10.85 mid)

= $1,040 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,836/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1270)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1280.85)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,067

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4–2.1] median · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,457

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,658

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,335 @ 74% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $94.65/sh now → $66.98 mid-life (likely $61.99–$95.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$56.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 457 simulated challenges: the $1,270 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $1,316 (overshoots $46.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,270	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.42/sh	+$242 cycle +$1,282 [-$21…+$927] · 74% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,300	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$4.47/sh	+$447 cycle +$1,487 [-$41…+$1,236] · 73% credit	70% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,275	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.32/sh	+$32 cycle +$1,072 [-$278…+$648] · 58% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,310	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.16/sh	+$16 cycle +$1,056 [-$559…+$757] · 50% credit	71% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,335	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$8.91/sh	-$891 cycle +$149 [-$1,647…-$283] · 18% credit	74% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,040 debit $891 (86% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$149 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $14,517/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,836/mo
vs 50% target ($16,715/mo)	-83%
vs normal income ($33,431/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,330/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1231: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-24,518

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.60/sh (~25% of the $10.40 collected) or spot ≥ $1,280.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,257-1,280.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,280.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,270.00 (1.4σ)	$1,040	$3,123	+$52,068	+$4,540
+2.5%	$1,301.75 (1.6σ)	$-2,135	$3,307	+$52,252	+$4,540
+5%	$1,333.50 (1.7σ)	$-5,310	$3,491	+$52,436	+$4,540

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,496

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1270): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $1220): +$402

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,046 (+$46,899 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,644 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-402, the opportunity cost of earning $2,836/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 88 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.029 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$46,496 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,644

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1125	11d	17 Jul 2026	$31.15	2/2	$16,991	$16,394	75%	80%	+$3,316	-$14,965	29.9%	$-17,414 (vs do-nothing $-15,770)
$1120	11d	17 Jul 2026	$32.25	2/2	$17,591	$16,994	75%	79%	+$3,296	-$15,745	31.5%	$-18,194 (vs do-nothing $-16,550)
$1115	11d	17 Jul 2026	$33.40	2/2	$18,218	$17,621	74%	79%	+$3,279	-$16,515	33.0%	$-18,964 (vs do-nothing $-17,320)
$1110	11d	17 Jul 2026	$35.00	2/2	$19,091	$18,494	73%	78%	+$3,482	-$17,195	34.4%	$-19,644 (vs do-nothing $-18,000)
$1105	11d	17 Jul 2026	$35.95	2/2	$19,609	$19,012	72%	78%	+$3,304	-$18,005	36.0%	$-20,454 (vs do-nothing $-18,810)
$1100	11d	17 Jul 2026	$37.80	2/2	$20,618	$20,021	71%	77%	+$3,591	-$18,635	37.3%	$-21,084 (vs do-nothing $-19,440)
$1095	11d	17 Jul 2026	$38.75	2/2	$21,136	$20,539	71%	77%	+$3,360	-$19,445	38.9%	$-21,894 (vs do-nothing $-20,250)
$1105	18d	24 Jul 2026	$52.05	2/2	$17,350	$16,753	70%	77%	+$3,531	-$14,785	29.6%	$-17,234 (vs do-nothing $-15,590)
$1090	11d	17 Jul 2026	$40.10	2/2	$21,873	$21,276	70%	76%	+$3,320	-$20,175	40.4%	$-22,624 (vs do-nothing $-20,980)
$1100	18d	24 Jul 2026	$53.35	2/2	$17,783	$17,186	69%	77%	+$3,484	-$15,525	31.1%	$-17,974 (vs do-nothing $-16,330)
$1085	11d	17 Jul 2026	$41.65	2/2	$22,718	$22,121	69%	76%	+$3,360	-$20,865	41.7%	$-23,314 (vs do-nothing $-21,670)
$1070	7d	13 Jul 2026	$33.40	2/2	$28,629	$28,032	69%	76%	+$6,023	-$25,515	51.0%	$-27,964 (vs do-nothing $-26,320)
$1095	18d	24 Jul 2026	$54.80	2/2	$18,267	$17,670	69%	76%	+$3,472	-$16,235	32.5%	$-18,684 (vs do-nothing $-17,040)

Show 75 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 75.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1080	11d	17 Jul 2026	$43.20	2/2	$23,564	$22,967	68%	75%	+$3,372	-$21,555	43.1%	$-24,004 (vs do-nothing $-22,360)
$1090	18d	24 Jul 2026	$57.50	2/2	$19,167	$18,570	68%	76%	+$3,863	-$16,695	33.4%	$-19,144 (vs do-nothing $-17,500)
$1065	7d	13 Jul 2026	$35.85	2/2	$30,729	$30,132	68%	76%	+$6,857	-$26,025	52.1%	$-28,474 (vs do-nothing $-26,830)
$1085	18d	24 Jul 2026	$57.45	2/2	$19,150	$18,553	67%	75%	+$3,321	-$17,705	35.4%	$-20,154 (vs do-nothing $-18,510)
$1075	11d	17 Jul 2026	$44.55	2/2	$24,300	$23,703	67%	75%	+$3,244	-$22,285	44.6%	$-24,734 (vs do-nothing $-23,090)
$1060	7d	13 Jul 2026	$36.00	2/2	$30,857	$30,260	67%	75%	+$5,664	-$26,995	54.0%	$-29,444 (vs do-nothing $-27,800)
$1080	18d	24 Jul 2026	$60.15	2/2	$20,050	$19,453	67%	75%	+$3,681	-$18,165	36.3%	$-20,614 (vs do-nothing $-18,970)
$1070	11d	17 Jul 2026	$45.55	2/2	$24,845	$24,248	66%	74%	+$2,896	-$23,085	46.2%	$-25,534 (vs do-nothing $-23,890)
$1075	18d	24 Jul 2026	$60.80	2/2	$20,267	$19,670	66%	75%	+$3,343	-$19,035	38.1%	$-21,484 (vs do-nothing $-19,840)
$1070	14d	20 Jul 2026	$50.85	2/2	$21,793	$21,196	66%	74%	+$2,408	-$22,025	44.1%	$-24,474 (vs do-nothing $-22,830)
$1055	7d	13 Jul 2026	$38.95	2/2	$33,386	$32,789	66%	75%	+$6,815	-$27,405	54.8%	$-29,854 (vs do-nothing $-28,210)
$1065	11d	17 Jul 2026	$47.75	2/2	$26,045	$25,448	65%	74%	+$3,172	-$23,645	47.3%	$-26,094 (vs do-nothing $-24,450)
$1070	18d	24 Jul 2026	$63.25	2/2	$21,083	$20,486	65%	74%	+$3,588	-$19,545	39.1%	$-21,994 (vs do-nothing $-20,350)
$1065	14d	20 Jul 2026	$52.05	2/2	$22,307	$21,710	65%	74%	+$2,008	-$22,785	45.6%	$-25,234 (vs do-nothing $-23,590)
$1060	11d	17 Jul 2026	$48.30	2/2	$26,345	$25,748	65%	73%	+$2,518	-$24,535	49.1%	$-26,984 (vs do-nothing $-25,340)
$1065	18d	24 Jul 2026	$64.85	2/2	$21,617	$21,020	64%	74%	+$3,535	-$20,225	40.5%	$-22,674 (vs do-nothing $-21,030)
$1060	14d	20 Jul 2026	$53.95	2/2	$23,121	$22,524	64%	73%	+$1,952	-$23,405	46.8%	$-25,854 (vs do-nothing $-24,210)
$1050	7d	13 Jul 2026	$43.00	1/2	$18,429	$21,922	64%	74%	+$2,988	-$13,798	27.6%	$-15,844 (vs do-nothing $-14,200)
$1055	11d	17 Jul 2026	$49.95	2/2	$27,245	$26,648	64%	73%	+$2,431	-$25,205	50.4%	$-27,654 (vs do-nothing $-26,010)
$1060	18d	24 Jul 2026	$66.25	2/2	$22,083	$21,486	64%	73%	+$3,398	-$20,945	41.9%	$-23,394 (vs do-nothing $-21,750)
$1055	14d	20 Jul 2026	$55.90	2/2	$23,957	$23,360	63%	73%	+$1,947	-$24,015	48.0%	$-26,464 (vs do-nothing $-24,820)
$1055	18d	24 Jul 2026	$68.15	2/2	$22,717	$22,120	63%	73%	+$3,412	-$21,565	43.1%	$-24,014 (vs do-nothing $-22,370)
$1045	7d	13 Jul 2026	$42.90	1/2	$18,386	$21,880	63%	73%	+$2,110	-$14,308	28.6%	$-16,354 (vs do-nothing $-14,710)
$1050	11d	17 Jul 2026	$52.00	2/2	$28,364	$27,767	63%	72%	+$2,531	-$25,795	51.6%	$-28,244 (vs do-nothing $-26,600)
$1050	14d	20 Jul 2026	$57.60	2/2	$24,686	$24,089	62%	72%	+$1,851	-$24,675	49.4%	$-27,124 (vs do-nothing $-25,480)
$1050	18d	24 Jul 2026	$70.95	2/2	$23,650	$23,053	62%	73%	+$3,709	-$22,005	44.0%	$-24,454 (vs do-nothing $-22,810)
$1045	11d	17 Jul 2026	$53.85	2/2	$29,373	$28,776	62%	72%	+$2,490	-$26,425	52.9%	$-28,874 (vs do-nothing $-27,230)
$1040	7d	13 Jul 2026	$44.55	1/2	$19,093	$22,587	62%	72%	+$1,952	-$14,643	29.3%	$-16,689 (vs do-nothing $-15,045)
$1045	14d	20 Jul 2026	$59.50	2/2	$25,500	$24,903	61%	72%	+$1,846	-$25,295	50.6%	$-27,744 (vs do-nothing $-26,100)
$1045	18d	24 Jul 2026	$72.15	2/2	$24,050	$23,453	61%	72%	+$3,456	-$22,765	45.5%	$-25,214 (vs do-nothing $-23,570)
$1040	11d	17 Jul 2026	$55.05	2/2	$30,027	$29,430	61%	71%	+$2,062	-$27,185	54.4%	$-29,634 (vs do-nothing $-27,990)
$1040	14d	20 Jul 2026	$61.40	2/2	$26,314	$25,717	61%	71%	+$1,837	-$25,915	51.8%	$-28,364 (vs do-nothing $-26,720)
$1040	18d	24 Jul 2026	$73.95	2/2	$24,650	$24,053	60%	72%	+$3,386	-$23,405	46.8%	$-25,854 (vs do-nothing $-24,210)
$1035	7d	13 Jul 2026	$46.90	1/2	$20,100	$23,594	60%	71%	+$2,066	-$14,908	29.8%	$-16,954 (vs do-nothing $-15,310)
$1035	11d	17 Jul 2026	$57.05	2/2	$31,118	$30,521	60%	71%	+$2,037	-$27,785	55.6%	$-30,234 (vs do-nothing $-28,590)
$1035	14d	20 Jul 2026	$63.50	2/2	$27,214	$26,617	60%	71%	+$1,900	-$26,495	53.0%	$-28,944 (vs do-nothing $-27,300)
$1035	18d	24 Jul 2026	$76.40	2/2	$25,467	$24,870	60%	71%	+$3,516	-$23,915	47.8%	$-26,364 (vs do-nothing $-24,720)
$1030	7d	13 Jul 2026	$48.95	1/2	$20,979	$24,472	59%	71%	+$2,024	-$15,203	30.4%	$-17,249 (vs do-nothing $-15,605)
$1030	11d	17 Jul 2026	$59.45	2/2	$32,427	$31,830	59%	70%	+$2,197	-$28,305	56.6%	$-30,754 (vs do-nothing $-29,110)
$1030	14d	20 Jul 2026	$65.65	2/2	$28,136	$27,539	59%	70%	+$1,964	-$27,065	54.1%	$-29,514 (vs do-nothing $-27,870)
$1030	18d	24 Jul 2026	$78.40	2/2	$26,133	$25,536	59%	71%	+$3,478	-$24,515	49.0%	$-26,964 (vs do-nothing $-25,320)
$1025	7d	13 Jul 2026	$51.05	1/2	$21,879	$25,372	58%	70%	+$1,978	-$15,493	31.0%	$-17,539 (vs do-nothing $-15,895)
$1025	18d	24 Jul 2026	$80.60	2/2	$26,867	$26,270	58%	71%	+$3,490	-$25,075	50.2%	$-27,524 (vs do-nothing $-25,880)
$1025	14d	20 Jul 2026	$68.00	2/2	$29,143	$28,546	58%	70%	+$2,089	-$27,595	55.2%	$-30,044 (vs do-nothing $-28,400)
$1022	18d	24 Jul 2026	$81.60	2/2	$27,200	$26,603	58%	70%	+$3,456	-$25,375	50.8%	$-27,824 (vs do-nothing $-26,180)
$1020	18d	24 Jul 2026	$82.90	2/2	$27,633	$27,036	57%	70%	+$3,517	-$25,615	51.2%	$-28,064 (vs do-nothing $-26,420)
$1020	14d	20 Jul 2026	$70.25	2/2	$30,107	$29,510	57%	70%	+$2,141	-$28,145	56.3%	$-30,594 (vs do-nothing $-28,950)
$1020	7d	13 Jul 2026	$52.55	1/2	$22,521	$26,015	57%	69%	+$1,650	-$15,843	31.7%	$-17,889 (vs do-nothing $-16,245)
$1018	18d	24 Jul 2026	$84.30	2/2	$28,100	$27,503	57%	70%	+$3,608	-$25,835	51.7%	$-28,284 (vs do-nothing $-26,640)
$1015	18d	24 Jul 2026	$85.10	2/2	$28,367	$27,770	56%	70%	+$3,494	-$26,175	52.4%	$-28,624 (vs do-nothing $-26,980)
$1015	14d	20 Jul 2026	$72.60	2/2	$31,114	$30,517	56%	69%	+$2,203	-$28,675	57.4%	$-31,124 (vs do-nothing $-29,480)
$1012	18d	24 Jul 2026	$88.00	2/2	$29,333	$28,736	56%	70%	+$4,075	-$26,095	52.2%	$-28,544 (vs do-nothing $-26,900)
$1015	7d	13 Jul 2026	$54.00	1/2	$23,143	$26,637	56%	69%	+$1,276	-$16,198	32.4%	$-18,244 (vs do-nothing $-16,600)
$1010	18d	24 Jul 2026	$87.30	2/2	$29,100	$28,503	55%	69%	+$3,452	-$26,735	53.5%	$-29,184 (vs do-nothing $-27,540)
$1010	14d	20 Jul 2026	$76.00	2/2	$32,571	$31,974	55%	69%	+$2,682	-$28,995	58.0%	$-31,444 (vs do-nothing $-29,800)
$1008	18d	24 Jul 2026	$88.90	2/2	$29,633	$29,036	55%	69%	+$3,591	-$26,915	53.8%	$-29,364 (vs do-nothing $-27,720)
$1010	11d	17 Jul 2026	$68.20	1/2	$18,600	$22,094	55%	68%	+$1,019	-$15,278	30.6%	$-17,324 (vs do-nothing $-15,680)
$1005	18d	24 Jul 2026	$90.05	2/2	$30,017	$29,420	55%	69%	+$3,576	-$27,185	54.4%	$-29,634 (vs do-nothing $-27,990)
$1010	7d	13 Jul 2026	$57.20	1/2	$24,514	$28,008	54%	68%	+$1,626	-$16,378	32.8%	$-18,424 (vs do-nothing $-16,780)
$1002	18d	24 Jul 2026	$91.30	2/2	$30,433	$29,836	54%	69%	+$3,590	-$27,435	54.9%	$-29,884 (vs do-nothing $-28,240)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-06 21:43