FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $1003.42

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1226.65 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-06 22:22 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $1003.42 UNDERWATER $216.58 (17.8% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1226.65 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$33,321/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$453/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-49,550	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$16,661/mo

HEDGE COVER
$453/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$33,321/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $1227 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $1070C (14d, $20,550/mo — a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER — realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$47,101

was $49,550 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$1,238.25 → $1,226.65

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 80 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 37 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,224.14 (+22%) · daily UBB $1,226.63 · 1-wk expected move ±$143 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1130 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($16,661/mo); it brings $16,964/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1035/11d for $33,545/mo, but breach risk rises to 40% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1270/11d (92% survival, $2,727/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $13,110 (26% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-49,700 and cuts bleed by $453/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 2 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1130 (primary) — 77% survival, breach 23%, $16,964/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1180 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 23% → 16%) for $5,482/mo less (32% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1180 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 2×$1130, 12.6% OTM, 77% surv

Sell 2 × $1130 12.6% OTM over spot $1,003.42 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $31.85 mid)

= $6,220 credit for the 11d cycle → $16,964/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1130)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $1161.85)

82%

EV / mo

+$6,008

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4–1.9] median — 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,155

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

39%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,577

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,267 @ 82% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $90.42/sh now → $63.98 mid-life (likely $68.54–$100.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $31.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,167 simulated challenges: the $1,130 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $1,167 (overshoots $36.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,157	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$8.23/sh	+$1,645 cycle +$7,865 [-$188…+$1,924] · 69% credit	71% surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,130	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.50/sh	+$300 cycle +$6,520 [-$1,105…+$660] · 37% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,132	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.73/sh	+$146 cycle +$6,366 [-$1,275…+$478] · 33% credit	68% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,172	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.63/sh	+$325 cycle +$6,545 [-$1,745…+$436] · 31% credit	73% surv 62%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,267	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$30.04/sh	-$6,007 cycle +$213 [-$9,745…-$6,528]	82% surv 77%
budget: banked $6,220 debit $6,007 (97% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$213 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $16,974/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$16,964/mo
vs 50% target ($16,661/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($33,321/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$16,511/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1130 is $97 below CC-SS $1227: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,110
… as % of IC ($50,000)	26.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	6.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-49,700

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $7.78/sh (~25% of the $31.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,161.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,118.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,119-1,161.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,161.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,130.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,220	$-16,622	+$32,928	+$3,160
+2.5%	$1,158.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$570	$-16,311	+$33,239	-$2,490
+5%	$1,186.50 (1.0σ)	$-5,080	$-16,000	+$33,550	-$8,140
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.2σ)	$-11,780	$-15,632	+$33,918	-$14,840

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.65, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,101

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1130): -$13,110

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,558 (+$33,992 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-718 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,840, the opportunity cost of earning $16,964/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 2×$1180, 17.6% OTM, 84% surv

Sell 2 × $1180 17.6% OTM over spot $1,003.42 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $21.65 mid)

= $4,210 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,482/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1180)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $1201.65)

86%

EV / mo

+$4,924

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4–2.1] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,362

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,153

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,277 @ 78% POP

71% survival

Buyback gross: $94.42/sh now → $66.81 mid-life (likely $65.10–$101.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $21.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$45.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 782 simulated challenges: the $1,180 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $1,218 (overshoots $38.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,207	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$7.29/sh	+$1,459 cycle +$5,669 [-$149…+$2,390] · 70% credit	71% surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,180	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$28 cycle +$4,238 [-$1,179…+$976] · 43% credit	68% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,222	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.64/sh	+$129 cycle +$4,339 [-$1,733…+$990] · 38% credit	73% surv 61%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,277	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$19.93/sh	-$3,986 cycle +$224 [-$6,877…-$3,561] · 5% credit	78% surv 71%
budget: banked $4,210 debit $3,986 (95% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$224 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $23,442/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,482/mo
vs 50% target ($16,661/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($33,321/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,029/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1180 is $47 below CC-SS $1227: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,120
… as % of IC ($50,000)	10.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	2.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-49,670

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.26/sh (~25% of the $21.05 collected) or spot ≥ $1,201.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,168.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,168-1,201.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,201.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,180.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,210	$-8,082	+$41,468	+$1,150
+2.5%	$1,209.50 (1.1σ)	$-1,690	$-7,757	+$41,793	-$4,750
+5%	$1,239.00 (1.3σ)	$-7,590	$-7,433	+$42,117	-$6,850

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.65, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,101

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1180): -$5,120

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,568 (+$41,982 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-718 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,850, the opportunity cost of earning $11,482/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 2×$1035, 3.1% OTM, 60% surv

Sell 2 × $1035 3.1% OTM over spot $1,003.42 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $63.40 mid)

= $12,300 credit for the 11d cycle → $33,545/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1035)

60%

Breach risk

40%

POP (stays ≤ $1098.40)

72%

EV / mo

+$7,157

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3–1.6] median — 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,916

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

71%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$579

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,272 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $82.82/sh now → $58.60 mid-life (likely $79.35–$106.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $61.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,125 simulated challenges: the $1,035 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $1,072 (overshoots $36.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,057	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$11.87/sh	+$2,373 cycle +$14,673 [+$104…+$1,244] · 78% credit	71% surv 58%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,035	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.75/sh	+$749 cycle +$13,049 [-$1,065…-$138] · 22% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,042	20 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.26/sh	+$52 cycle +$12,352 [-$1,934…-$898] · 10% credit	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,087	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.56/sh	+$112 cycle +$12,412 [-$2,568…-$1,159] · 10% credit	74% surv 64%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,272	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$43.86/sh	-$8,772 cycle +$3,528 [-$15,075…-$11,373]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $12,300 debit $8,772 (71% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,528 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $7,371/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$33,545/mo
vs 50% target ($16,661/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($33,321/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$33,093/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1035 is $192 below CC-SS $1227: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,030
… as % of IC ($50,000)	52.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	13.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-49,930

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $15.38/sh (~25% of the $61.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,098.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,035)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,024.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,025-1,098.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,098.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,035.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$12,300	$-30,587	+$18,963	+$9,240
+2.5%	$1,060.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,125	$-30,302	+$19,248	+$4,065
+5%	$1,086.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,950	$-30,017	+$19,533	-$1,110
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.2σ)	$-24,700	$-28,552	+$20,998	-$27,760

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.65, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,101

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1035): -$26,030

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,478 (+$21,072 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-718 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,760, the opportunity cost of earning $33,545/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 1×$1270, 26.6% OTM, 92% surv

Sell 1 × $1270 26.6% OTM over spot $1,003.42 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $10.43 mid)

= $1,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,727/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1270)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1280.42)

93%

EV / mo

+$1,474

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4–2.4] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,203

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,191

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,332 @ 74% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $101.63/sh now → $71.91 mid-life (likely $61.34–$97.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$61.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 412 simulated challenges: the $1,270 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $1,309 (overshoots $39.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,302	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.94/sh	+$294 cycle +$1,294 [-$291…+$1,367] · 66% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,307	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.70/sh	+$70 cycle +$1,070 [-$552…+$1,108] · 56% credit	72% surv 60%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,270	20 Jul 2026	8d left	-$2.61/sh	-$261 cycle +$739 [-$548…+$733] · 50% credit	68% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,332	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$8.30/sh	-$830 cycle +$170 [-$1,592…+$91] · 26% credit	74% surv 64%
budget: banked $1,000 debit $830 (83% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $15,903/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,727/mo
vs 50% target ($16,661/mo)	-84%
vs normal income ($33,321/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,447/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1227: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-24,818

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.50/sh (~25% of the $10.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,280.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,257-1,280.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,280.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,270.00 (1.5σ)	$1,000	$4,228	+$53,778	+$4,470
+2.5%	$1,301.75 (1.7σ)	$-2,175	$4,578	+$54,128	+$4,470
+5%	$1,333.50 (1.8σ)	$-5,350	$4,927	+$54,477	+$4,470

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.65, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,101

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1270): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $1220): +$865

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,584 (+$47,966 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-718 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-865, the opportunity cost of earning $2,727/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 92 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.055 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$47,101 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-718

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1130	11d	17 Jul 2026	$31.10	2/2	$16,964	$16,511	77%	82%	+$6,008	-$13,110	26.2%	$-15,558 (vs do-nothing $-14,840)
$1125	11d	17 Jul 2026	$32.35	2/2	$17,645	$17,193	77%	81%	+$6,130	-$13,860	27.7%	$-16,308 (vs do-nothing $-15,590)
$1120	11d	17 Jul 2026	$33.85	2/2	$18,464	$18,011	76%	81%	+$6,365	-$14,560	29.1%	$-17,008 (vs do-nothing $-16,290)
$1115	11d	17 Jul 2026	$34.95	2/2	$19,064	$18,611	75%	80%	+$6,358	-$15,340	30.7%	$-17,788 (vs do-nothing $-17,070)
$1110	11d	17 Jul 2026	$36.35	2/2	$19,827	$19,374	74%	80%	+$6,488	-$16,060	32.1%	$-18,508 (vs do-nothing $-17,790)
$1105	11d	17 Jul 2026	$37.70	2/2	$20,564	$20,111	73%	79%	+$6,563	-$16,790	33.6%	$-19,238 (vs do-nothing $-18,520)
$1120	18d	24 Jul 2026	$50.10	2/2	$16,700	$16,247	73%	79%	+$4,946	-$11,310	22.6%	$-13,758 (vs do-nothing $-13,040)
$1100	11d	17 Jul 2026	$39.30	2/2	$21,436	$20,983	73%	79%	+$6,743	-$17,470	34.9%	$-19,918 (vs do-nothing $-19,200)
$1115	18d	24 Jul 2026	$50.30	2/2	$16,767	$16,314	72%	79%	+$4,577	-$12,270	24.5%	$-14,718 (vs do-nothing $-14,000)
$1095	11d	17 Jul 2026	$40.75	2/2	$22,227	$21,774	72%	78%	+$6,806	-$18,180	36.4%	$-20,628 (vs do-nothing $-19,910)
$1110	18d	24 Jul 2026	$51.90	2/2	$17,300	$16,847	71%	78%	+$4,661	-$12,950	25.9%	$-15,398 (vs do-nothing $-14,680)
$1090	11d	17 Jul 2026	$42.30	2/2	$23,073	$22,620	71%	78%	+$6,891	-$18,870	37.7%	$-21,318 (vs do-nothing $-20,600)
$1105	18d	24 Jul 2026	$53.50	2/2	$17,833	$17,380	71%	78%	+$4,731	-$13,630	27.3%	$-16,078 (vs do-nothing $-15,360)

Show 79 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 79.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1070	7d	13 Jul 2026	$30.20	2/2	$25,886	$25,433	70%	77%	+$6,987	-$25,290	50.6%	$-27,738 (vs do-nothing $-27,020)
$1085	11d	17 Jul 2026	$43.90	2/2	$23,945	$23,493	70%	77%	+$6,973	-$19,550	39.1%	$-21,998 (vs do-nothing $-21,280)
$1100	18d	24 Jul 2026	$55.15	2/2	$18,383	$17,930	70%	77%	+$4,803	-$14,300	28.6%	$-16,748 (vs do-nothing $-16,030)
$1095	18d	24 Jul 2026	$56.80	2/2	$18,933	$18,480	69%	77%	+$4,861	-$14,970	29.9%	$-17,418 (vs do-nothing $-16,700)
$1065	7d	13 Jul 2026	$25.80	2/2	$22,114	$21,661	69%	76%	+$1,528	-$27,170	54.3%	$-29,618 (vs do-nothing $-28,900)
$1080	11d	17 Jul 2026	$45.70	2/2	$24,927	$24,474	69%	77%	+$7,140	-$20,190	40.4%	$-22,638 (vs do-nothing $-21,920)
$1090	18d	24 Jul 2026	$58.55	2/2	$19,517	$19,064	68%	77%	+$4,937	-$15,620	31.2%	$-18,068 (vs do-nothing $-17,350)
$1075	11d	17 Jul 2026	$46.85	2/2	$25,555	$25,102	68%	76%	+$6,932	-$20,960	41.9%	$-23,408 (vs do-nothing $-22,690)
$1060	7d	13 Jul 2026	$27.45	2/2	$23,529	$23,076	68%	75%	+$1,314	-$27,840	55.7%	$-30,288 (vs do-nothing $-29,570)
$1085	18d	24 Jul 2026	$60.30	2/2	$20,100	$19,647	68%	76%	+$4,998	-$16,270	32.5%	$-18,718 (vs do-nothing $-18,000)
$1070	11d	17 Jul 2026	$48.60	2/2	$26,509	$26,056	67%	76%	+$7,026	-$21,610	43.2%	$-24,058 (vs do-nothing $-23,340)
$1080	18d	24 Jul 2026	$62.10	2/2	$20,700	$20,247	67%	76%	+$5,060	-$16,910	33.8%	$-19,358 (vs do-nothing $-18,640)
$1070	14d	20 Jul 2026	$47.95	2/2	$20,550	$20,097	67%	75%	+$3,780	-$21,740	43.5%	$-24,188 (vs do-nothing $-23,470)
$1055	7d	13 Jul 2026	$34.35	2/2	$29,443	$28,990	66%	75%	+$5,637	-$27,460	54.9%	$-29,908 (vs do-nothing $-29,190)
$1065	11d	17 Jul 2026	$50.30	2/2	$27,436	$26,983	66%	75%	+$7,064	-$22,270	44.5%	$-24,718 (vs do-nothing $-24,000)
$1075	18d	24 Jul 2026	$63.95	2/2	$21,317	$20,864	66%	75%	+$5,123	-$17,540	35.1%	$-19,988 (vs do-nothing $-19,270)
$1065	14d	20 Jul 2026	$49.70	2/2	$21,300	$20,847	66%	75%	+$3,915	-$22,390	44.8%	$-24,838 (vs do-nothing $-24,120)
$1070	18d	24 Jul 2026	$66.70	2/2	$22,233	$21,780	65%	75%	+$5,471	-$17,990	36.0%	$-20,438 (vs do-nothing $-19,720)
$1060	11d	17 Jul 2026	$52.15	2/2	$28,445	$27,993	65%	75%	+$7,152	-$22,900	45.8%	$-25,348 (vs do-nothing $-24,630)
$1050	7d	13 Jul 2026	$34.90	2/2	$29,914	$29,461	65%	74%	+$4,534	-$28,350	56.7%	$-30,798 (vs do-nothing $-30,080)
$1060	14d	20 Jul 2026	$51.65	2/2	$22,136	$21,683	65%	74%	+$4,048	-$23,000	46.0%	$-25,448 (vs do-nothing $-24,730)
$1065	18d	24 Jul 2026	$69.35	2/2	$23,117	$22,664	65%	75%	+$5,769	-$18,460	36.9%	$-20,908 (vs do-nothing $-20,190)
$1055	11d	17 Jul 2026	$54.25	2/2	$29,591	$29,138	64%	74%	+$7,345	-$23,480	47.0%	$-25,928 (vs do-nothing $-25,210)
$1055	14d	20 Jul 2026	$54.35	2/2	$23,293	$22,840	64%	74%	+$4,433	-$23,460	46.9%	$-25,908 (vs do-nothing $-25,190)
$1045	7d	13 Jul 2026	$33.15	2/2	$28,414	$27,961	64%	73%	+$1,456	-$29,700	59.4%	$-32,148 (vs do-nothing $-31,430)
$1060	18d	24 Jul 2026	$71.05	2/2	$23,683	$23,230	64%	74%	+$5,734	-$19,120	38.2%	$-21,568 (vs do-nothing $-20,850)
$1050	11d	17 Jul 2026	$56.25	2/2	$30,682	$30,229	63%	74%	+$7,450	-$24,080	48.2%	$-26,528 (vs do-nothing $-25,810)
$1055	18d	24 Jul 2026	$73.65	2/2	$24,550	$24,097	63%	74%	+$5,983	-$19,600	39.2%	$-22,048 (vs do-nothing $-21,330)
$1050	14d	20 Jul 2026	$55.55	2/2	$23,807	$23,354	63%	73%	+$4,120	-$24,220	48.4%	$-26,668 (vs do-nothing $-25,950)
$1040	7d	13 Jul 2026	$35.45	2/2	$30,386	$29,933	63%	72%	+$1,824	-$30,240	60.5%	$-32,688 (vs do-nothing $-31,970)
$1045	11d	17 Jul 2026	$58.40	2/2	$31,855	$31,402	62%	73%	+$7,603	-$24,650	49.3%	$-27,098 (vs do-nothing $-26,380)
$1050	18d	24 Jul 2026	$73.80	2/2	$24,600	$24,147	62%	73%	+$5,398	-$20,570	41.1%	$-23,018 (vs do-nothing $-22,300)
$1045	14d	20 Jul 2026	$57.80	2/2	$24,771	$24,318	62%	73%	+$4,213	-$24,770	49.5%	$-27,218 (vs do-nothing $-26,500)
$1045	18d	24 Jul 2026	$75.90	2/2	$25,300	$24,847	62%	73%	+$5,446	-$21,150	42.3%	$-23,598 (vs do-nothing $-22,880)
$1035	7d	13 Jul 2026	$37.50	2/2	$32,143	$31,690	61%	72%	+$1,936	-$30,830	61.7%	$-33,278 (vs do-nothing $-32,560)
$1040	11d	17 Jul 2026	$60.45	2/2	$32,973	$32,520	61%	73%	+$7,669	-$25,240	50.5%	$-27,688 (vs do-nothing $-26,970)
$1040	14d	20 Jul 2026	$60.50	2/2	$25,929	$25,476	61%	73%	+$4,466	-$25,230	50.5%	$-27,678 (vs do-nothing $-26,960)
$1040	18d	24 Jul 2026	$78.05	2/2	$26,017	$25,564	61%	73%	+$5,495	-$21,720	43.4%	$-24,168 (vs do-nothing $-23,450)
$1035	11d	17 Jul 2026	$61.50	1/2	$16,773	$20,493	60%	72%	+$3,578	-$13,015	26.0%	$-14,598 (vs do-nothing $-13,880)
$1035	14d	20 Jul 2026	$62.95	2/2	$26,979	$26,526	60%	72%	+$4,586	-$25,740	51.5%	$-28,188 (vs do-nothing $-27,470)
$1030	7d	13 Jul 2026	$39.75	1/2	$17,036	$20,756	60%	71%	+$1,080	-$15,690	31.4%	$-17,273 (vs do-nothing $-16,555)
$1035	18d	24 Jul 2026	$80.25	2/2	$26,750	$26,297	60%	72%	+$5,542	-$22,280	44.6%	$-24,728 (vs do-nothing $-24,010)
$1030	11d	17 Jul 2026	$63.85	1/2	$17,414	$21,133	59%	72%	+$3,660	-$13,280	26.6%	$-14,863 (vs do-nothing $-14,145)
$1030	14d	20 Jul 2026	$65.40	2/2	$28,029	$27,576	59%	72%	+$4,685	-$26,250	52.5%	$-28,698 (vs do-nothing $-27,980)
$1030	18d	24 Jul 2026	$82.50	2/2	$27,500	$27,047	59%	72%	+$5,589	-$22,830	45.7%	$-25,278 (vs do-nothing $-24,560)
$1025	7d	13 Jul 2026	$42.15	1/2	$18,064	$21,784	59%	70%	+$1,222	-$15,950	31.9%	$-17,533 (vs do-nothing $-16,815)
$1025	18d	24 Jul 2026	$84.80	2/2	$28,267	$27,814	58%	71%	+$5,635	-$23,370	46.7%	$-25,818 (vs do-nothing $-25,100)
$1025	14d	20 Jul 2026	$67.60	2/2	$28,971	$28,518	58%	71%	+$4,660	-$26,810	53.6%	$-29,258 (vs do-nothing $-28,540)
$1022	18d	24 Jul 2026	$85.95	2/2	$28,650	$28,197	58%	71%	+$5,651	-$23,640	47.3%	$-26,088 (vs do-nothing $-25,370)
$1020	18d	24 Jul 2026	$87.10	2/2	$29,033	$28,580	57%	71%	+$5,663	-$23,910	47.8%	$-26,358 (vs do-nothing $-25,640)
$1020	7d	13 Jul 2026	$45.25	1/2	$19,393	$23,113	57%	70%	+$1,623	-$16,140	32.3%	$-17,723 (vs do-nothing $-17,005)
$1020	14d	20 Jul 2026	$70.10	2/2	$30,043	$29,590	57%	71%	+$4,746	-$27,310	54.6%	$-29,758 (vs do-nothing $-29,040)
$1018	18d	24 Jul 2026	$88.30	2/2	$29,433	$28,980	57%	71%	+$5,687	-$24,170	48.3%	$-26,618 (vs do-nothing $-25,900)
$1015	18d	24 Jul 2026	$89.50	2/2	$29,833	$29,380	57%	71%	+$5,707	-$24,430	48.9%	$-26,878 (vs do-nothing $-26,160)
$1015	14d	20 Jul 2026	$73.10	2/2	$31,329	$30,876	56%	70%	+$5,027	-$27,710	55.4%	$-30,158 (vs do-nothing $-29,440)
$1012	18d	24 Jul 2026	$90.70	2/2	$30,233	$29,780	56%	71%	+$5,722	-$24,690	49.4%	$-27,138 (vs do-nothing $-26,420)
$1015	7d	13 Jul 2026	$47.05	1/2	$20,164	$23,884	56%	69%	+$1,423	-$16,460	32.9%	$-18,043 (vs do-nothing $-17,325)
$1010	18d	24 Jul 2026	$91.95	2/2	$30,650	$30,197	56%	71%	+$5,750	-$24,940	49.9%	$-27,388 (vs do-nothing $-26,670)
$1008	18d	24 Jul 2026	$93.15	2/2	$31,050	$30,597	55%	70%	+$5,756	-$25,200	50.4%	$-27,648 (vs do-nothing $-26,930)
$1010	14d	20 Jul 2026	$74.95	2/2	$32,121	$31,668	55%	70%	+$4,795	-$28,340	56.7%	$-30,788 (vs do-nothing $-30,070)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-06 22:22