FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $1011.62

BE SS: $1220.00  |  CC-SS: $1231.60  |  2 contracts (200 sh)  |  2026-07-09 21:37 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $1011.62   UNDERWATER $208.38 (17.1% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh)  |  BE SS: $1220.00  |  CC-SS: $1231.60  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)
SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)
HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$198,000(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref$32,360/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$485/mo
Unrealized P&L$-47,941fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$16,180/mo
HEDGE COVER
$485/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$32,360/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $50,000
ML VELOCITY
6.1 mo to earn back $198,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1231.60 (probe: $1230C 13d) brings only $6,000/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$2,449
Hole (after banked)
$45,492
was $47,941 · 5% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$4,604
CC-SS ratchet
$1,243.44 → $1,231.60
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026U13190865$23.02$4,6042026-07-06
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 80 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 36 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,226.26 (+21%) · daily UBB $1,218.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$143 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 2 contracts at $1135 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($16,180/mo); it brings $16,912/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1055/8d for $32,738/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1280/8d (94% survival, $2,006/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $14,810 (30% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-48,076 and cuts bleed by $485/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 2 × $1135, 79% survival, $16,912/mo (E[net] $3,671/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 8d2 × $113579%$16,912$3,671

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $3,671/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1135 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $16,912/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1180 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 21% → 14%) for $5,925/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1180 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.
MU  spot $1,011.62 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $128017 Jul8d26.5%94%12%$535$2,006-$14,906$0
Sell 1 × $1280 26.5% OTM over spot $1,011.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $5.85 mid)
= $535 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,006/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1280)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $1285.85)
94%
EV / mo
+$1,078
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.1] median  ·  76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without)  ·  ~0.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,585
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,450
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,323 @ 71% POP
61% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $84.60/sh now → $59.85 mid-life (likely $47.57–$80.96)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $5.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$54.50/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $1,280 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $1,319 (overshoots $39.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,28020 Jul 20267d left+$0.13/sh+$13
cycle +$548
[-$163…+$1,211] · 67% credit
67%
surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,31824 Jul 202611d left+$2.55/sh+$255
cycle +$790
[-$249…+$1,411] · 66% credit
71%
surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,32324 Jul 202611d left+$0.28/sh+$28
cycle +$563
[-$499…+$1,139] · 56% credit
71%
surv 61%
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,006/mo
vs 50% target ($16,180/mo)-88%
vs normal income ($32,360/mo)6% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,099/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1280 is at/above CC-SS $1231.60: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-24,020
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.34/sh (~25% of the $5.35 collected) or spot ≥ $1,285.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,267.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,267-1,285.85
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,285.85
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,280.00 (1.8σ)$535$3,040+$50,981+$5,590
+2.5%$1,312.00 (2.0σ)$-2,665$3,258+$51,199+$5,590
+5%$1,344.00 (2.2σ)$-5,865$3,476+$51,417+$5,590
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1231.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,941
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,492
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1280): -$0
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$215
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,664 (+$45,277 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,879 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$215, the opportunity cost of earning $2,006/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield2 × $122517 Jul8d21.1%90%20%$1,870$7,012-$9,900$0
Sell 2 × $1225 21.1% OTM over spot $1,011.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $10.02 mid)
= $1,870 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,012/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1225)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1235.03)
91%
EV / mo
+$3,250
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-2.0] median  ·  74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without)  ·  ~1.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,551
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
15%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$9,586
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,293 @ 74% POP
66% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $80.97/sh now → $57.28 mid-life (likely $50.83–$84.74)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $9.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.93/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 458 simulated challenges: the $1,225 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $1,264 (overshoots $39.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,22520 Jul 20267d left+$1.54/sh+$307
cycle +$2,177
[-$391…+$1,797] · 66% credit
67%
surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,26324 Jul 202611d left+$3.58/sh+$716
cycle +$2,586
[-$688…+$2,299] · 60% credit
71%
surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,26824 Jul 202611d left+$1.33/sh+$266
cycle +$2,136
[-$1,213…+$1,826] · 49% credit
72%
surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,29324 Jul 202611d left-$8.38/sh-$1,676
cycle +$194
[-$3,703…-$289] · 22% credit
74%
surv 66%
budget: banked $1,870 debit $1,676 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$194 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $26,673/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,012/mo
vs 50% target ($16,180/mo)-57%
vs normal income ($32,360/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,528/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1225 is at/above CC-SS $1231.60: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-48,076
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.34/sh (~25% of the $9.35 collected) or spot ≥ $1,235.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,212.75Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,213-1,235.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,235.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,225.00 (1.4σ)$1,870$-1,944+$45,997+$980
+2.5%$1,255.62 (1.6σ)$-4,255$-1,735+$46,206+$980
+5%$1,286.25 (1.8σ)$-10,380$-1,527+$46,414+$980
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1231.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,941
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,492
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1225): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,449 (+$45,492 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,879 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$430, the opportunity cost of earning $7,012/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean2 × $118017 Jul8d16.6%86%30%$2,930$10,988-$5,925$7,390
Sell 2 × $1180 16.6% OTM over spot $1,011.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $15.30 mid)
= $2,930 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,988/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1180)
86%
Breach risk
14%
POP (stays ≤ $1195.30)
87%
EV / mo
+$4,371
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo)  ·  82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without)  ·  ~2.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,282
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
23%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$8,105
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,268 @ 76% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $77.99/sh now → $55.18 mid-life (likely $51.88–$82.81)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $14.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$40.53/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 701 simulated challenges: the $1,180 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $1,217 (overshoots $36.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,18020 Jul 20267d left+$2.59/sh+$519
cycle +$3,449
[-$390…+$1,800] · 64% credit
67%
surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,21824 Jul 202611d left+$4.31/sh+$862
cycle +$3,792
[-$726…+$1,956] · 60% credit
71%
surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,18320 Jul 20267d left+$0.69/sh+$139
cycle +$3,069
[-$854…+$1,358] · 52% credit
67%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,22324 Jul 202611d left+$2.08/sh+$415
cycle +$3,345
[-$1,274…+$1,426] · 50% credit
72%
surv 62%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,26824 Jul 202611d left-$13.21/sh-$2,642
cycle +$288
[-$4,999…-$1,954] · 10% credit
76%
surv 70%
budget: banked $2,930 debit $2,642 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$288 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $22,891/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$10,988/mo
vs 50% target ($16,180/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($32,360/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$10,503/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1180 is $52 below CC-SS $1231.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,390
… as % of IC ($50,000)14.8%
… as % of ML ($198,000)3.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-48,071
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.66/sh (~25% of the $14.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,195.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,168.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,168-1,195.30
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,195.30
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,180.00 (1.1σ)$2,930$-10,190+$37,751+$1,040
+2.5%$1,209.50 (1.3σ)$-2,970$-9,989+$37,952-$4,860
+5%$1,239.00 (1.5σ)$-8,870$-9,788+$38,153-$6,960
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1231.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,941
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,492
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1180): -$7,390
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,839 (+$38,102 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,879 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,960, the opportunity cost of earning $10,988/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal2 × $113517 Jul8d12.2%79%33%$4,510$16,912$14,810
Sell 2 × $1135 12.2% OTM over spot $1,011.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $23.23 mid)
= $4,510 credit for the 8d cycle → $16,912/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1135)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $1158.22)
83%
EV / mo
+$5,545
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-1.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo)  ·  79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without)  ·  ~4.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $13,302
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,105
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,253 @ 79% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $75.02/sh now → $53.07 mid-life (likely $56.64–$87.08)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $22.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$30.52/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 998 simulated challenges: the $1,135 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $1,173 (overshoots $37.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,16324 Jul 202611d left+$8.71/sh+$1,742
cycle +$6,252
[-$133…+$2,118] · 72% credit
70%
surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,13520 Jul 20267d left+$3.56/sh+$713
cycle +$5,223
[-$469…+$1,235] · 56% credit
67%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,13820 Jul 20267d left+$1.68/sh+$335
cycle +$4,845
[-$935…+$791] · 42% credit
67%
surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,18324 Jul 202611d left+$0.47/sh+$95
cycle +$4,605
[-$2,162…+$215] · 29% credit
72%
surv 63%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,25324 Jul 202611d left-$21.40/sh-$4,280
cycle +$230
[-$7,791…-$4,557] · 0% credit
79%
surv 75%
budget: banked $4,510 debit $4,280 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$230 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $17,277/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$16,912/mo
vs 50% target ($16,180/mo)+5%
vs normal income ($32,360/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$16,428/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1135 is $97 below CC-SS $1231.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$14,810
… as % of IC ($50,000)29.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)7.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-48,076
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.64/sh (~25% of the $22.55 collected) or spot ≥ $1,158.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,135)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,123.65Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,124-1,158.22
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,158.22
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,135.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,510$-17,916+$30,025+$2,620
+2.5%$1,163.38 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,165$-17,723+$30,218-$3,055
+5%$1,191.75 (1.2σ)$-6,840$-17,530+$30,411-$8,730
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.4σ)$-12,490$-17,338+$30,603-$14,380
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1231.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,941
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,492
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1135): -$14,810
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,259 (+$30,682 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,879 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,380, the opportunity cost of earning $16,912/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal2 × $105517 Jul8d4.3%63%77%$8,730$32,738+$15,825$26,590
Sell 2 × $1055 4.3% OTM over spot $1,011.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $45.83 mid)
= $8,730 credit for the 8d cycle → $32,738/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1055)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $1100.83)
73%
EV / mo
+$5,522
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo)  ·  82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without)  ·  ~8.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $16,794
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
63%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,136
Free roll-up
+$20/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,293 @ 90% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $69.73/sh now → $49.33 mid-life (likely $64.28–$90.36)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $43.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.68/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,886 simulated challenges: the $1,055 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $1,091 (overshoots $35.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,08324 Jul 202611d left+$9.53/sh+$1,905
cycle +$10,635
[-$398…+$999] · 63% credit
71%
surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,05520 Jul 20267d left+$5.08/sh+$1,016
cycle +$9,746
[-$459…+$504] · 43% credit
67%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,06320 Jul 20267d left+$1.04/sh+$207
cycle +$8,937
[-$1,478…-$425] · 17% credit
68%
surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,10824 Jul 202611d left+$0.11/sh+$22
cycle +$8,752
[-$2,753…-$1,076] · 12% credit
73%
surv 64%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,29324 Jul 202611d left-$39.11/sh-$7,821
cycle +$909
[-$14,001…-$10,072]
90%
surv 90%
budget: banked $8,730 debit $7,821 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$909 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,578/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$32,738/mo
vs 50% target ($16,180/mo)+102%
vs normal income ($32,360/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$32,253/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1055 is $177 below CC-SS $1231.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$26,590
… as % of IC ($50,000)53.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)13.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-48,376
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.91/sh (~25% of the $43.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,100.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,055)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,044.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,044-1,100.83
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,100.83
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,055.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$8,730$-30,240+$17,701+$6,840
+2.5%$1,081.38 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,455$-30,060+$17,881+$1,565
+5%$1,107.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,820$-29,881+$18,060-$3,710
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.4σ)$-24,270$-29,118+$18,823-$26,160
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1231.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,941
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,492
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1055): -$26,590
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,039 (+$18,902 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,879 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,160, the opportunity cost of earning $32,738/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (150 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 150 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$45,492 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,879

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$11004d13 Jul 2026$11.002/2$16,500$16,01582%85%+$6,151-$24,12048.2%$-26,569 (vs do-nothing $-23,690)
$10954d13 Jul 2026$11.702/2$17,550$17,06581%84%+$6,138-$24,98050.0%$-27,429 (vs do-nothing $-24,550)
$10904d13 Jul 2026$12.602/2$18,900$18,41580%83%+$6,323-$25,80051.6%$-28,249 (vs do-nothing $-25,370)
$11358d17 Jul 2026$22.552/2$16,912$16,42879%83%+$5,545-$14,81029.6%$-17,259 (vs do-nothing $-14,380)
$11308d17 Jul 2026$23.552/2$17,662$17,17878%82%+$5,613-$15,61031.2%$-18,059 (vs do-nothing $-15,180)
$10854d13 Jul 2026$13.102/2$19,650$19,16578%82%+$5,799-$26,70053.4%$-29,149 (vs do-nothing $-26,270)
$11258d17 Jul 2026$24.802/2$18,600$18,11578%82%+$5,834-$16,36032.7%$-18,809 (vs do-nothing $-15,930)
$11056d15 Jul 2026$17.052/2$17,050$16,56577%81%+$3,033-$21,91043.8%$-24,359 (vs do-nothing $-21,480)
$10804d13 Jul 2026$14.752/2$22,125$21,64077%81%+$6,883-$27,37054.7%$-29,819 (vs do-nothing $-26,940)
$11208d17 Jul 2026$25.852/2$19,388$18,90377%81%+$5,867-$17,15034.3%$-19,599 (vs do-nothing $-16,720)
$11158d17 Jul 2026$27.002/2$20,250$19,76576%81%+$7,043-$17,92035.8%$-20,369 (vs do-nothing $-17,490)
$11006d15 Jul 2026$19.402/2$19,400$18,91576%81%+$4,356-$22,44044.9%$-24,889 (vs do-nothing $-22,010)
$11108d17 Jul 2026$28.352/2$21,262$20,77875%81%+$7,266-$18,65037.3%$-21,099 (vs do-nothing $-18,220)
Show 137 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 137.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10754d13 Jul 2026$15.552/2$23,325$22,84075%80%+$6,568-$28,21056.4%$-30,659 (vs do-nothing $-27,780)
$10956d15 Jul 2026$18.902/2$18,900$18,41575%80%+$2,768-$23,54047.1%$-25,989 (vs do-nothing $-23,110)
$11058d17 Jul 2026$29.652/2$22,238$21,75375%80%+$7,413-$19,39038.8%$-21,839 (vs do-nothing $-18,960)
$10906d15 Jul 2026$19.952/2$19,950$19,46574%79%+$2,666-$24,33048.7%$-26,779 (vs do-nothing $-23,900)
$10704d13 Jul 2026$17.002/2$25,500$25,01574%79%+$7,096-$28,92057.8%$-31,369 (vs do-nothing $-28,490)
$11008d17 Jul 2026$31.002/2$23,250$22,76574%79%+$7,558-$20,12040.2%$-22,569 (vs do-nothing $-19,690)
$111011d20 Jul 2026$30.502/2$16,636$16,15274%79%+$3,343-$18,22036.4%$-20,669 (vs do-nothing $-17,790)
$10856d15 Jul 2026$23.252/2$23,250$22,76573%78%+$4,749-$24,67049.3%$-27,119 (vs do-nothing $-24,240)
$110511d20 Jul 2026$31.902/2$17,400$16,91573%78%+$3,442-$18,94037.9%$-21,389 (vs do-nothing $-18,510)
$10958d17 Jul 2026$32.302/2$24,225$23,74073%79%+$7,625-$20,86041.7%$-23,309 (vs do-nothing $-20,430)
$111013d22 Jul 2026$35.702/2$16,477$15,99272%78%+$2,901-$17,18034.4%$-19,629 (vs do-nothing $-16,750)
$10654d13 Jul 2026$18.602/2$27,900$27,41572%78%+$7,708-$29,60059.2%$-32,049 (vs do-nothing $-29,170)
$110011d20 Jul 2026$33.402/2$18,218$17,73372%78%+$3,567-$19,64039.3%$-22,089 (vs do-nothing $-19,210)
$111515d24 Jul 2026$41.802/2$16,720$16,23572%78%+$3,201-$14,96029.9%$-17,409 (vs do-nothing $-14,530)
$10908d17 Jul 2026$33.802/2$25,350$24,86572%78%+$7,799-$21,56043.1%$-24,009 (vs do-nothing $-21,130)
$10806d15 Jul 2026$24.252/2$24,250$23,76571%77%+$4,463-$25,47050.9%$-27,919 (vs do-nothing $-25,040)
$110513d22 Jul 2026$37.252/2$17,192$16,70771%78%+$3,024-$17,87035.7%$-20,319 (vs do-nothing $-17,440)
$111015d24 Jul 2026$43.952/2$17,580$17,09571%78%+$3,523-$15,53031.1%$-17,979 (vs do-nothing $-15,100)
$109511d20 Jul 2026$34.852/2$19,009$18,52471%77%+$3,637-$20,35040.7%$-22,799 (vs do-nothing $-19,920)
$110013d22 Jul 2026$39.752/2$18,346$17,86171%77%+$3,564-$18,37036.7%$-20,819 (vs do-nothing $-17,940)
$10604d13 Jul 2026$20.352/2$30,525$30,04070%77%+$8,397-$30,25060.5%$-32,699 (vs do-nothing $-29,820)
$10756d15 Jul 2026$25.902/2$25,900$25,41570%77%+$4,768-$26,14052.3%$-28,589 (vs do-nothing $-25,710)
$110515d24 Jul 2026$45.002/2$18,000$17,51570%77%+$3,387-$16,32032.6%$-18,769 (vs do-nothing $-15,890)
$10858d17 Jul 2026$35.302/2$26,475$25,99070%77%+$6,547-$22,26044.5%$-24,709 (vs do-nothing $-21,830)
$109011d20 Jul 2026$35.952/2$19,609$19,12470%77%+$3,488-$21,13042.3%$-23,579 (vs do-nothing $-20,700)
$109513d22 Jul 2026$40.802/2$18,831$18,34670%77%+$3,413-$19,16038.3%$-21,609 (vs do-nothing $-18,730)
$110015d24 Jul 2026$47.352/2$18,940$18,45569%76%+$3,752-$16,85033.7%$-19,299 (vs do-nothing $-16,420)
$10706d15 Jul 2026$28.152/2$28,150$27,66569%76%+$5,601-$26,69053.4%$-29,139 (vs do-nothing $-26,260)
$10808d17 Jul 2026$36.852/2$27,638$27,15369%76%+$6,618-$22,95045.9%$-25,399 (vs do-nothing $-22,520)
$108511d20 Jul 2026$37.852/2$20,645$20,16169%76%+$3,745-$21,75043.5%$-24,199 (vs do-nothing $-21,320)
$109013d22 Jul 2026$42.402/2$19,569$19,08469%76%+$3,492-$19,84039.7%$-22,289 (vs do-nothing $-19,410)
$10554d13 Jul 2026$21.552/2$32,325$31,84069%76%+$8,107-$31,01062.0%$-33,459 (vs do-nothing $-30,580)
$109515d24 Jul 2026$48.852/2$19,540$19,05569%76%+$3,759-$17,55035.1%$-19,999 (vs do-nothing $-17,120)
$108011d20 Jul 2026$39.052/2$21,300$20,81568%76%+$3,591-$22,51045.0%$-24,959 (vs do-nothing $-22,080)
$108513d22 Jul 2026$44.502/2$20,538$20,05468%76%+$3,780-$20,42040.8%$-22,869 (vs do-nothing $-19,990)
$10758d17 Jul 2026$38.452/2$28,838$28,35368%76%+$6,678-$23,63047.3%$-26,079 (vs do-nothing $-23,200)
$109015d24 Jul 2026$49.802/2$19,920$19,43568%76%+$3,526-$18,36036.7%$-20,809 (vs do-nothing $-17,930)
$10656d15 Jul 2026$29.502/2$29,500$29,01568%75%+$5,445-$27,42054.8%$-29,869 (vs do-nothing $-26,990)
$108013d22 Jul 2026$46.252/2$21,346$20,86167%75%+$3,881-$21,07042.1%$-23,519 (vs do-nothing $-20,640)
$108515d24 Jul 2026$51.502/2$20,600$20,11567%75%+$3,574-$19,02038.0%$-21,469 (vs do-nothing $-18,590)
$107511d20 Jul 2026$40.202/2$21,927$21,44267%75%+$3,378-$23,28046.6%$-25,729 (vs do-nothing $-22,850)
$10504d13 Jul 2026$23.301/2$17,475$19,56767%75%+$4,239-$15,83031.7%$-18,494 (vs do-nothing $-15,615)
$10708d17 Jul 2026$40.252/2$30,188$29,70367%75%+$6,840-$24,27048.5%$-26,719 (vs do-nothing $-23,840)
$10606d15 Jul 2026$30.952/2$30,950$30,46566%74%+$5,311-$28,13056.3%$-30,579 (vs do-nothing $-27,700)
$108015d24 Jul 2026$53.002/2$21,200$20,71566%75%+$3,522-$19,72039.4%$-22,169 (vs do-nothing $-19,290)
$107513d22 Jul 2026$47.452/2$21,900$21,41566%75%+$3,705-$21,83043.7%$-24,279 (vs do-nothing $-21,400)
$107011d20 Jul 2026$42.852/2$23,373$22,88866%75%+$3,953-$23,75047.5%$-26,199 (vs do-nothing $-23,320)
$10658d17 Jul 2026$41.152/2$30,862$30,37866%75%+$6,277-$25,09050.2%$-27,539 (vs do-nothing $-24,660)
$107515d24 Jul 2026$54.752/2$21,900$21,41565%74%+$3,550-$20,37040.7%$-22,819 (vs do-nothing $-19,940)
$107013d22 Jul 2026$48.852/2$22,546$22,06165%74%+$3,596-$22,55045.1%$-24,999 (vs do-nothing $-22,120)
$10454d13 Jul 2026$25.001/2$18,750$20,84265%74%+$4,303-$16,16032.3%$-18,824 (vs do-nothing $-15,945)
$10556d15 Jul 2026$33.051/2$16,525$18,61765%74%+$2,871-$14,35528.7%$-17,019 (vs do-nothing $-14,140)
$106511d20 Jul 2026$43.702/2$23,836$23,35265%74%+$3,513-$24,58049.2%$-27,029 (vs do-nothing $-24,150)
$10608d17 Jul 2026$42.502/2$31,875$31,39065%74%+$6,000-$25,82051.6%$-28,269 (vs do-nothing $-25,390)
$107015d24 Jul 2026$56.652/2$22,660$22,17565%74%+$3,618-$20,99042.0%$-23,439 (vs do-nothing $-20,560)
$106513d22 Jul 2026$51.052/2$23,562$23,07764%74%+$3,831-$23,11046.2%$-25,559 (vs do-nothing $-22,680)
$106011d20 Jul 2026$45.552/2$24,845$24,36164%73%+$3,587-$25,21050.4%$-27,659 (vs do-nothing $-24,780)
$106515d24 Jul 2026$59.152/2$23,660$23,17564%73%+$3,904-$21,49043.0%$-23,939 (vs do-nothing $-21,060)
$10506d15 Jul 2026$35.001/2$17,500$19,59264%73%+$2,971-$14,66029.3%$-17,324 (vs do-nothing $-14,445)
$10558d17 Jul 2026$43.651/2$16,369$18,46163%73%+$2,761-$13,29526.6%$-15,959 (vs do-nothing $-13,080)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-09 21:37