FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $1024.50

BE SS: $1220.00  |  CC-SS: $1230.31  |  2 contracts (200 sh)  |  2026-07-10 01:46 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $1024.50   UNDERWATER $195.50 (16.0% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh)  |  BE SS: $1220.00  |  CC-SS: $1230.31  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)
SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)
HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$198,000(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref$35,464/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$386/mo
Unrealized P&L$-45,010fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,732/mo
HEDGE COVER
$386/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$35,464/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $50,000
ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $198,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1230.31 (probe: $1230C 14d) still earns $9,600/mo (27% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$2,449
Hole (after banked)
$42,561
was $45,010 · 5% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$4,604
CC-SS ratchet
$1,242.15 → $1,230.31
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026U13190865$23.02$4,6042026-07-06
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 82 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 40 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,226.57 (+20%) · daily UBB $1,218.17 · 1-wk expected move ±$143 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 2 contracts at $1155 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($17,732/mo); it brings $17,743/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1075/7d for $35,871/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1280/7d (95% survival, $2,700/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $10,922 (22% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-45,085 and cuts bleed by $386/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1155, 82% survival, $17,743/mo (E[net] $5,587/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d2 × $115582%$17,743$5,587

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $5,587/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1155 (primary), 82% survival, breach 18%, $17,743/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1195 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 18% → 13%) for $5,657/mo less (32% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $1,024.50 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $128017 Jul7d24.9%95%10%$630$2,700-$15,043$0
Sell 1 × $1280 24.9% OTM over spot $1,024.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.50 mid)
= $630 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,700/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1280)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $1286.50)
96%
EV / mo
+$2,025
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-2.1] median  ·  75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without)  ·  ~0.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $9,641
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
8%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,120
Free roll-up
+$13/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,416 @ 78% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $81.28/sh now → $57.50 mid-life (likely $45.54–$82.72)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $6.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$51.20/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 231 simulated challenges: the $1,280 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,319 (overshoots $38.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,35631 Jul 202618d left+$13.57/sh+$1,357
cycle +$1,987
[+$651…+$2,780] · 87% credit
74%
surv 65%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,28020 Jul 20266d left+$2.69/sh+$269
cycle +$899
[+$34…+$1,373] · 76% credit
67%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,28620 Jul 20266d left+$0.33/sh+$33
cycle +$663
[-$217…+$1,073] · 64% credit
68%
surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,39631 Jul 202618d left+$0.36/sh+$36
cycle +$666
[-$915…+$1,296] · 53% credit
77%
surv 70%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,41631 Jul 202618d left-$5.69/sh-$569
cycle +$61
[-$1,651…+$616] · 39% credit
78%
surv 73%
budget: banked $630 debit $569 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$61 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $8,634/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($17,732/mo)-85%
vs normal income ($35,464/mo)8% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,169/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1280 is at/above CC-SS $1230.31: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-22,525
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.57/sh (~25% of the $6.30 collected) or spot ≥ $1,286.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,267.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,267-1,286.50
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,286.50
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,280.00 (1.8σ)$630$3,742+$48,752+$5,345
+2.5%$1,312.00 (2.0σ)$-2,570$3,960+$48,970+$5,345
+5%$1,344.00 (2.2σ)$-5,770$4,178+$49,188+$5,345
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,561
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1280): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $1220): +$254
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,195 (+$42,815 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-254, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield2 × $121517 Jul7d18.6%90%20%$2,330$9,986-$7,757$732
Sell 2 × $1215 18.6% OTM over spot $1,024.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.00 mid)
= $2,330 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,986/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1215)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1227.00)
91%
EV / mo
+$6,195
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo)  ·  78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without)  ·  ~1.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $11,219
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
15%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$8,586
Free roll-up
+$13/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,370 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $77.15/sh now → $54.58 mid-life (likely $47.77–$79.48)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $11.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$42.93/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 453 simulated challenges: the $1,215 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,253 (overshoots $38.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,29031 Jul 202618d left+$14.20/sh+$2,840
cycle +$5,170
[+$1,055…+$4,424] · 85% credit
74%
surv 65%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,21520 Jul 20266d left+$4.15/sh+$831
cycle +$3,161
[+$33…+$2,124] · 76% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,22020 Jul 20266d left+$1.79/sh+$359
cycle +$2,689
[-$519…+$1,539] · 59% credit
68%
surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,33031 Jul 202618d left+$1.16/sh+$232
cycle +$2,562
[-$1,965…+$1,689] · 45% credit
77%
surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,37031 Jul 202618d left-$9.39/sh-$1,878
cycle +$452
[-$4,468…-$517] · 19% credit
80%
surv 75%
budget: banked $2,330 debit $1,878 (81% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$452 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $15,063/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,986/mo
vs 50% target ($17,732/mo)-44%
vs normal income ($35,464/mo)28% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,600/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1215 is $15 below CC-SS $1230.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$732
… as % of IC ($50,000)1.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)0.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-45,080
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.91/sh (~25% of the $11.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,227.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,215)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,202.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,203-1,227.00
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,227.00
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,215.00 (1.3σ)$2,330$-3,285+$41,725-$240
+2.5%$1,245.38 (1.5σ)$-3,745$-3,078+$41,932-$1,240
+5%$1,275.75 (1.8σ)$-9,820$-2,872+$42,138-$1,240
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,561
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1215): -$732
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,180 (+$41,830 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,240, the opportunity cost of earning $9,986/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal2 × $119517 Jul7d16.6%87%26%$2,820$12,086-$5,657$4,242
Sell 2 × $1195 16.6% OTM over spot $1,024.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $14.55 mid)
= $2,820 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,086/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1195)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $1209.55)
89%
EV / mo
+$6,327
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.8] median  ·  80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without)  ·  ~2.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $10,847
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
19%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$7,916
Free roll-up
+$13/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,370 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $75.88/sh now → $53.68 mid-life (likely $49.41–$84.12)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $14.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$39.58/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 559 simulated challenges: the $1,195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,232 (overshoots $36.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,27031 Jul 202618d left+$14.34/sh+$2,868
cycle +$5,688
[+$718…+$4,396] · 84% credit
74%
surv 65%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,19520 Jul 20266d left+$4.57/sh+$914
cycle +$3,734
[-$54…+$2,126] · 73% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,20020 Jul 20266d left+$2.21/sh+$442
cycle +$3,262
[-$600…+$1,563] · 58% credit
68%
surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,31031 Jul 202618d left+$1.36/sh+$271
cycle +$3,091
[-$2,465…+$1,550] · 43% credit
77%
surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,37031 Jul 202618d left-$13.54/sh-$2,708
cycle +$112
[-$6,135…-$1,641] · 12% credit
82%
surv 78%
budget: banked $2,820 debit $2,708 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$112 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,380/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$12,086/mo
vs 50% target ($17,732/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($35,464/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$11,700/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1195 is $35 below CC-SS $1230.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,242
… as % of IC ($50,000)8.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)2.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-45,100
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.52/sh (~25% of the $14.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,209.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,183.05Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,183-1,209.55
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,209.55
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,195.00 (1.2σ)$2,820$-6,931+$38,079+$250
+2.5%$1,224.88 (1.4σ)$-3,155$-6,727+$38,283-$4,750
+5%$1,254.75 (1.6σ)$-9,130$-6,524+$38,486-$4,750
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,561
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1195): -$4,242
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,690 (+$38,320 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,750, the opportunity cost of earning $12,086/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal2 × $115517 Jul7d12.7%82%27%$4,140$17,743$10,922
Sell 2 × $1155 12.7% OTM over spot $1,024.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $21.07 mid)
= $4,140 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,743/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1155)
82%
Breach risk
18%
POP (stays ≤ $1176.08)
85%
EV / mo
+$7,953
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo)  ·  79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without)  ·  ~3.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $13,942
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
27%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,237
Free roll-up
+$24/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,360 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $73.34/sh now → $51.88 mid-life (likely $53.10–$84.03)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $20.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.18/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 820 simulated challenges: the $1,155 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,192 (overshoots $37.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,23031 Jul 202618d left+$14.54/sh+$2,909
cycle +$7,049
[+$466…+$3,435] · 81% credit
74%
surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,15520 Jul 20266d left+$5.35/sh+$1,070
cycle +$5,210
[-$132…+$1,768] · 70% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,16620 Jul 20266d left+$0.47/sh+$94
cycle +$4,234
[-$1,340…+$552] · 36% credit
69%
surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,27031 Jul 202618d left+$1.68/sh+$335
cycle +$4,475
[-$2,533…+$680] · 32% credit
77%
surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,36031 Jul 202618d left-$19.87/sh-$3,973
cycle +$167
[-$8,041…-$3,909] · 2% credit
84%
surv 81%
budget: banked $4,140 debit $3,973 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$167 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,673/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$17,743/mo
vs 50% target ($17,732/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($35,464/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$17,357/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1155 is $75 below CC-SS $1230.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,922
… as % of IC ($50,000)21.8%
… as % of ML ($198,000)5.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-45,085
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.17/sh (~25% of the $20.70 collected) or spot ≥ $1,176.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,143.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,143-1,176.08
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,176.08
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,155.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,140$-13,883+$31,127+$1,570
+2.5%$1,183.88 (1.1σ)$-1,635$-13,686+$31,324-$4,205
+5%$1,212.75 (1.3σ)$-7,410$-13,490+$31,520-$9,980
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.4σ)$-8,860$-13,441+$31,569-$11,430
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,561
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1155): -$10,922
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,370 (+$31,640 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,430, the opportunity cost of earning $17,743/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal2 × $107517 Jul7d4.9%66%72%$8,370$35,871+$18,129$22,692
Sell 2 × $1075 4.9% OTM over spot $1,024.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $42.70 mid)
= $8,370 credit for the 7d cycle → $35,871/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1075)
66%
Breach risk
34%
POP (stays ≤ $1117.70)
75%
EV / mo
+$10,182
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo)  ·  87% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without)  ·  ~7.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $16,229
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
57%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,288
Free roll-up
+$24/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,300 @ 91% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $68.26/sh now → $48.29 mid-life (likely $60.42–$88.21)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $41.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.44/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,714 simulated challenges: the $1,075 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,110 (overshoots $35.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,15031 Jul 202618d left+$14.64/sh+$2,929
cycle +$11,299
[-$253…+$1,933] · 71% credit
75%
surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,07520 Jul 20266d left+$6.72/sh+$1,344
cycle +$9,714
[-$279…+$924] · 63% credit
68%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,08620 Jul 20266d left+$1.86/sh+$372
cycle +$8,742
[-$1,486…-$200] · 21% credit
69%
surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,19031 Jul 202618d left+$2.04/sh+$408
cycle +$8,778
[-$3,377…-$816] · 15% credit
78%
surv 72%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,30024 Jul 202610d left-$34.77/sh-$6,953
cycle +$1,417
[-$12,595…-$8,699]
91%
surv 89%
budget: banked $8,370 debit $6,953 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,417 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,115/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$35,871/mo
vs 50% target ($17,732/mo)+102%
vs normal income ($35,464/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$35,486/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1075 is $155 below CC-SS $1230.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,692
… as % of IC ($50,000)45.4%
… as % of ML ($198,000)11.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-45,180
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.46/sh (~25% of the $41.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,117.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,075)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,064.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,064-1,117.70
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,117.70
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,075.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$8,370$-26,197+$18,813+$5,800
+2.5%$1,101.88 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,995$-26,014+$18,996+$425
+5%$1,128.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,380$-25,831+$19,179-$4,950
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.4σ)$-20,630$-25,211+$19,799-$23,200
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,561
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1075): -$22,692
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,140 (+$19,870 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,200, the opportunity cost of earning $35,871/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (159 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 159 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$42,561 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,940

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$11355d15 Jul 2026$15.602/2$18,720$18,33483%86%+$9,336-$15,94231.9%$-18,390 (vs do-nothing $-16,450)
$11305d15 Jul 2026$16.502/2$19,800$19,41482%85%+$9,578-$16,76233.5%$-19,210 (vs do-nothing $-17,270)
$11557d17 Jul 2026$20.702/2$17,743$17,35782%85%+$7,953-$10,92221.8%$-13,370 (vs do-nothing $-11,430)
$11255d15 Jul 2026$17.552/2$21,060$20,67481%85%+$9,935-$17,55235.1%$-20,000 (vs do-nothing $-18,060)
$11507d17 Jul 2026$21.702/2$18,600$18,21481%84%+$8,158-$11,72223.4%$-14,170 (vs do-nothing $-12,230)
$11457d17 Jul 2026$22.702/2$19,457$19,07180%84%+$8,326-$12,52225.0%$-14,970 (vs do-nothing $-13,030)
$11205d15 Jul 2026$18.602/2$22,320$21,93480%84%+$10,224-$18,34236.7%$-20,790 (vs do-nothing $-18,850)
$11407d17 Jul 2026$23.652/2$20,271$19,88679%83%+$8,410-$13,33226.7%$-15,780 (vs do-nothing $-13,840)
$11155d15 Jul 2026$19.752/2$23,700$23,31479%83%+$10,560-$19,11238.2%$-21,560 (vs do-nothing $-19,620)
$11357d17 Jul 2026$24.752/2$21,214$20,82978%83%+$8,583-$14,11228.2%$-16,560 (vs do-nothing $-14,620)
$11105d15 Jul 2026$20.902/2$25,080$24,69478%82%+$10,821-$19,88239.8%$-22,330 (vs do-nothing $-20,390)
$11307d17 Jul 2026$25.802/2$22,114$21,72977%82%+$8,669-$14,90229.8%$-17,350 (vs do-nothing $-15,410)
$11257d17 Jul 2026$27.252/2$23,357$22,97177%81%+$9,054-$15,61231.2%$-18,060 (vs do-nothing $-16,120)
Show 146 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 146.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$11055d15 Jul 2026$22.202/2$26,640$26,25476%82%+$11,181-$20,62241.2%$-23,070 (vs do-nothing $-21,130)
$11207d17 Jul 2026$28.452/2$24,386$24,00076%81%+$9,178-$16,37232.7%$-18,820 (vs do-nothing $-16,880)
$11005d15 Jul 2026$23.502/2$28,200$27,81475%81%+$11,458-$21,36242.7%$-23,810 (vs do-nothing $-21,870)
$11157d17 Jul 2026$29.702/2$25,457$25,07175%80%+$9,297-$17,12234.2%$-19,570 (vs do-nothing $-17,630)
$10955d15 Jul 2026$24.802/2$29,760$29,37474%80%+$11,648-$22,10244.2%$-24,550 (vs do-nothing $-22,610)
$11107d17 Jul 2026$31.152/2$26,700$26,31474%80%+$9,539-$17,83235.7%$-20,280 (vs do-nothing $-18,340)
$113514d24 Jul 2026$41.602/2$17,829$17,44373%79%+$5,154-$10,74221.5%$-13,190 (vs do-nothing $-11,250)
$112512d22 Jul 2026$36.152/2$18,075$17,68973%79%+$5,025-$13,83227.7%$-16,280 (vs do-nothing $-14,340)
$10905d15 Jul 2026$26.052/2$31,260$30,87473%79%+$11,687-$22,85245.7%$-25,300 (vs do-nothing $-23,360)
$11057d17 Jul 2026$32.502/2$27,857$27,47173%79%+$9,643-$18,56237.1%$-21,010 (vs do-nothing $-19,070)
$113014d24 Jul 2026$43.252/2$18,536$18,15072%79%+$5,328-$11,41222.8%$-13,860 (vs do-nothing $-11,920)
$112012d22 Jul 2026$36.952/2$18,475$18,08972%79%+$4,811-$14,67229.3%$-17,120 (vs do-nothing $-15,180)
$111510d20 Jul 2026$30.552/2$18,330$17,94472%78%+$2,999-$16,95233.9%$-19,400 (vs do-nothing $-17,460)
$112514d24 Jul 2026$43.902/2$18,814$18,42972%78%+$5,054-$12,28224.6%$-14,730 (vs do-nothing $-12,790)
$111512d22 Jul 2026$37.852/2$18,925$18,53971%78%+$4,621-$15,49231.0%$-17,940 (vs do-nothing $-16,000)
$11007d17 Jul 2026$33.902/2$29,057$28,67171%78%+$9,738-$19,28238.6%$-21,730 (vs do-nothing $-19,790)
$111010d20 Jul 2026$32.052/2$19,230$18,84471%77%+$3,128-$17,65235.3%$-20,100 (vs do-nothing $-18,160)
$10855d15 Jul 2026$27.802/2$33,360$32,97471%78%+$12,231-$23,50247.0%$-25,950 (vs do-nothing $-24,010)
$112014d24 Jul 2026$46.052/2$19,736$19,35071%78%+$5,404-$12,85225.7%$-15,300 (vs do-nothing $-13,360)
$111012d22 Jul 2026$40.652/2$20,325$19,93971%78%+$5,355-$15,93231.9%$-18,380 (vs do-nothing $-16,440)
$110510d20 Jul 2026$33.552/2$20,130$19,74470%77%+$3,226-$18,35236.7%$-20,800 (vs do-nothing $-18,860)
$10957d17 Jul 2026$35.452/2$30,386$30,00070%78%+$9,907-$19,97239.9%$-22,420 (vs do-nothing $-20,480)
$111514d24 Jul 2026$46.502/2$19,929$19,54370%77%+$5,005-$13,76227.5%$-16,210 (vs do-nothing $-14,270)
$10805d15 Jul 2026$29.202/2$35,040$34,65470%78%+$12,258-$24,22248.4%$-26,670 (vs do-nothing $-24,730)
$110512d22 Jul 2026$41.002/2$20,500$20,11470%77%+$4,836-$16,86233.7%$-19,310 (vs do-nothing $-17,370)
$110010d20 Jul 2026$36.852/2$22,110$21,72470%76%+$4,373-$18,69237.4%$-21,140 (vs do-nothing $-19,200)
$111014d24 Jul 2026$48.802/2$20,914$20,52969%77%+$5,378-$14,30228.6%$-16,750 (vs do-nothing $-14,810)
$10907d17 Jul 2026$37.052/2$31,757$31,37169%77%+$10,063-$20,65241.3%$-23,100 (vs do-nothing $-21,160)
$110012d22 Jul 2026$42.852/2$21,425$21,03969%77%+$5,040-$17,49235.0%$-19,940 (vs do-nothing $-18,000)
$110514d24 Jul 2026$50.602/2$21,686$21,30069%76%+$5,516-$14,94229.9%$-17,390 (vs do-nothing $-15,450)
$109510d20 Jul 2026$38.252/2$22,950$22,56469%76%+$4,347-$19,41238.8%$-21,860 (vs do-nothing $-19,920)
$10755d15 Jul 2026$30.901/2$18,540$22,00968%77%+$6,272-$12,44124.9%$-14,635 (vs do-nothing $-12,695)
$111521d31 Jul 2026$63.652/2$18,186$17,80068%76%+$4,065-$10,33220.7%$-12,780 (vs do-nothing $-10,840)
$10857d17 Jul 2026$38.702/2$33,171$32,78668%76%+$10,205-$21,32242.6%$-23,770 (vs do-nothing $-21,830)
$109512d22 Jul 2026$44.352/2$22,175$21,78968%76%+$5,039-$18,19236.4%$-20,640 (vs do-nothing $-18,700)
$110014d24 Jul 2026$53.502/2$22,929$22,54368%76%+$6,105-$15,36230.7%$-17,810 (vs do-nothing $-15,870)
$109010d20 Jul 2026$38.652/2$23,190$22,80468%75%+$3,687-$20,33240.7%$-22,780 (vs do-nothing $-20,840)
$111021d31 Jul 2026$65.402/2$18,686$18,30067%76%+$4,127-$10,98222.0%$-13,430 (vs do-nothing $-11,490)
$109012d22 Jul 2026$46.052/2$23,025$22,63967%76%+$5,109-$18,85237.7%$-21,300 (vs do-nothing $-19,360)
$10807d17 Jul 2026$40.352/2$34,586$34,20067%76%+$10,288-$21,99244.0%$-24,440 (vs do-nothing $-22,500)
$109514d24 Jul 2026$53.452/2$22,907$22,52167%75%+$5,408-$16,37232.7%$-18,820 (vs do-nothing $-16,880)
$10705d15 Jul 2026$32.451/2$19,470$22,93967%76%+$6,273-$12,78625.6%$-14,980 (vs do-nothing $-13,040)
$110521d31 Jul 2026$66.552/2$19,014$18,62967%75%+$4,005-$11,75223.5%$-14,200 (vs do-nothing $-12,260)
$108510d20 Jul 2026$41.352/2$24,810$24,42467%75%+$4,374-$20,79241.6%$-23,240 (vs do-nothing $-21,300)
$110021d31 Jul 2026$69.002/2$19,714$19,32966%75%+$4,245-$12,26224.5%$-14,710 (vs do-nothing $-12,770)
$109014d24 Jul 2026$56.002/2$24,000$23,61466%75%+$5,803-$16,86233.7%$-19,310 (vs do-nothing $-17,370)
$108512d22 Jul 2026$47.802/2$23,900$23,51466%75%+$5,174-$19,50239.0%$-21,950 (vs do-nothing $-20,010)
$10757d17 Jul 2026$41.851/2$17,936$21,40566%75%+$5,091-$11,34622.7%$-13,540 (vs do-nothing $-11,600)
$108010d20 Jul 2026$42.202/2$25,320$24,93466%74%+$3,915-$21,62243.2%$-24,070 (vs do-nothing $-22,130)
$109521d31 Jul 2026$70.352/2$20,100$19,71465%75%+$4,406-$12,99226.0%$-15,440 (vs do-nothing $-13,500)
$10655d15 Jul 2026$34.001/2$20,400$23,86965%75%+$6,220-$13,13126.3%$-15,325 (vs do-nothing $-13,385)
$108514d24 Jul 2026$57.152/2$24,493$24,10765%75%+$5,575-$17,63235.3%$-20,080 (vs do-nothing $-18,140)
$108012d22 Jul 2026$49.652/2$24,825$24,43965%75%+$5,258-$20,13240.3%$-22,580 (vs do-nothing $-20,640)
$109021d31 Jul 2026$71.702/2$20,486$20,10065%74%+$4,060-$13,72227.4%$-16,170 (vs do-nothing $-14,230)
$10707d17 Jul 2026$43.601/2$18,686$22,15565%74%+$5,115-$11,67123.3%$-13,865 (vs do-nothing $-11,925)
$107510d20 Jul 2026$43.702/2$26,220$25,83465%74%+$3,811-$22,32244.6%$-24,770 (vs do-nothing $-22,830)
$108014d24 Jul 2026$59.752/2$25,607$25,22164%74%+$5,946-$18,11236.2%$-20,560 (vs do-nothing $-18,620)
$107512d22 Jul 2026$52.752/2$26,375$25,98964%74%+$5,936-$20,51241.0%$-22,960 (vs do-nothing $-21,020)
$108521d31 Jul 2026$74.802/2$21,371$20,98664%74%+$4,450-$14,10228.2%$-16,550 (vs do-nothing $-14,610)
$10605d15 Jul 2026$34.851/2$20,910$24,37964%74%+$5,693-$13,54627.1%$-15,740 (vs do-nothing $-13,800)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 01:46