FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $1020.76

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1227.41 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-10 02:12 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $1020.76 UNDERWATER $199.24 (16.3% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1227.41 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$35,590/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$383/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-45,185	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,795/mo

HEDGE COVER
$383/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$35,590/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $198,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1227.41 (probe: $1230C 14d) still earns $9,536/mo (27% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$42,736

was $45,185 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,604

CC-SS ratchet

$1,239.25 → $1,227.41

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$23.02	$4,604	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 81 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 39 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,226.57 (+20%) · daily UBB $1,218.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$142 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1150 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($17,795/mo); it brings $18,214/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1070/7d for $36,729/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1270/7d (94% survival, $2,893/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $11,232 (22% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-45,305 and cuts bleed by $383/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1150, 82% survival, $18,214/mo (E[net] $6,659/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $1150	82%	$18,214	$6,659

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $6,659/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1150 (primary), 82% survival, breach 18%, $18,214/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1195 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 18% → 12%) for $6,343/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $1,020.76 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1270

17 Jul

24.4%

94%

12%

$675

$2,893

-$15,321

Sell 1 × $1270 24.4% OTM over spot $1,020.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.00 mid)

= $675 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,893/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1270)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1277.00)

95%

EV / mo

+$1,926

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-1.9] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,910

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,103

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,409 @ 79% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $81.68/sh now → $57.78 mid-life (likely $45.28–$79.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$51.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 211 simulated challenges: the $1,270 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,305 (overshoots $34.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,344	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$13.42/sh	+$1,342 cycle +$2,017 [+$736…+$2,701] · 87% credit	74% surv 65%	+$12,590 SAFE cap gain +$57,775
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,270	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.58/sh	+$358 cycle +$1,033 [+$171…+$1,471] · 83% credit	68% surv 52%	+$3,676 SAFE cap gain +$48,861
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,274	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.02/sh	+$2 cycle +$677 [-$285…+$1,046] · 63% credit	68% surv 53%	+$3,774 SAFE cap gain +$48,959
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,379	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$2.17/sh	+$217 cycle +$892 [-$625…+$1,471] · 60% credit	77% surv 70%	+$15,203 SAFE cap gain +$60,388
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,409	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$6.05/sh	-$605 cycle +$70 [-$1,584…+$583] · 35% credit	79% surv 73%	+$17,585 SAFE cap gain +$62,770
budget: banked $675 debit $605 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $8,622/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,893/mo
vs 50% target ($17,795/mo)	-84%
vs normal income ($35,590/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,365/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1227.41: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,618

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.69/sh (~25% of the $6.75 collected) or spot ≥ $1,277.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,257-1,277.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,277.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,270.00 (1.8σ)	$675	$3,319	+$48,504	+$4,390
+2.5%	$1,301.75 (2.0σ)	$-2,500	$3,534	+$48,719	+$4,390
+5%	$1,333.50 (2.2σ)	$-5,675	$3,750	+$48,935	+$4,390

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,185

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,736

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1270): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $1220): +$544

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,905 (+$43,280 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,361 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-544, the opportunity cost of earning $2,893/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1220

17 Jul

19.5%

90%

20%

$2,160

$9,257

-$8,957

Sell 2 × $1220 19.5% OTM over spot $1,020.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $11.15 mid)

= $2,160 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,257/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1220)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1231.15)

91%

EV / mo

+$5,358

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,096

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,941

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,369 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $78.47/sh now → $55.51 mid-life (likely $50.07–$90.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$44.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $1,220 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,259 (overshoots $38.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,294	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$13.94/sh	+$2,788 cycle +$4,948 [+$300…+$4,297] · 78% credit	74% surv 65%	+$16,321 SAFE cap gain +$61,506
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,220	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.75/sh	+$950 cycle +$3,110 [-$21…+$2,169] · 74% credit	68% surv 52%	-$871 NOT cap gain +$44,314
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,224	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.19/sh	+$237 cycle +$2,397 [-$1,157…+$1,343] · 53% credit	68% surv 54%	-$706 NOT cap gain +$44,479
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,334	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.61/sh	+$123 cycle +$2,283 [-$2,977…+$1,389] · 45% credit	77% surv 71%	+$21,927 SAFE cap gain +$67,112
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,369	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$8.09/sh	-$1,619 cycle +$541 [-$5,232…-$473] · 21% credit	80% surv 75%	+$27,423 SAFE cap gain +$72,608
budget: banked $2,160 debit $1,619 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$541 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $15,804/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,257/mo
vs 50% target ($17,795/mo)	-48%
vs normal income ($35,590/mo)	26% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,874/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1220 is at/above CC-SS $1227.41: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-45,255

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.70/sh (~25% of the $10.80 collected) or spot ≥ $1,231.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,207.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,208-1,231.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,231.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,220.00 (1.4σ)	$2,160	$-1,821	+$43,364	-$410
+2.5%	$1,250.50 (1.6σ)	$-3,940	$-1,614	+$43,571	-$410
+5%	$1,281.00 (1.8σ)	$-10,040	$-1,407	+$43,778	-$410

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,185

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,736

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1220): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,449 (+$42,736 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,361 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,088, the opportunity cost of earning $9,257/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $1195

17 Jul

17.1%

88%

25%

$2,770

$11,871

-$6,343

$3,712

Sell 2 × $1195 17.1% OTM over spot $1,020.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $14.25 mid)

= $2,770 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,871/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1195)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $1209.25)

89%

EV / mo

+$6,371

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.8] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,844

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,104

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,364 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $76.86/sh now → $54.37 mid-life (likely $48.31–$82.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$40.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 485 simulated challenges: the $1,195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,230 (overshoots $34.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,269	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.14/sh	+$2,828 cycle +$5,598 [+$734…+$4,220] · 83% credit	74% surv 65%	+$11,800 SAFE cap gain +$56,985
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,195	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.30/sh	+$1,060 cycle +$3,830 [+$141…+$2,142] · 79% credit	68% surv 52%	-$5,321 NOT cap gain +$39,864
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,199	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.73/sh	+$346 cycle +$3,116 [-$896…+$1,382] · 53% credit	68% surv 54%	-$5,157 NOT cap gain +$40,028
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,309	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.88/sh	+$177 cycle +$2,947 [-$2,372…+$1,479] · 43% credit	77% surv 71%	+$17,421 SAFE cap gain +$62,606
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,364	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$13.40/sh	-$2,681 cycle +$89 [-$5,851…-$1,509] · 15% credit	81% surv 77%	+$25,937 SAFE cap gain +$71,122
budget: banked $2,770 debit $2,681 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$89 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,655/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,871/mo
vs 50% target ($17,795/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($35,590/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,489/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1195 is $32 below CC-SS $1227.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,712
… as % of IC ($50,000)	7.4%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	1.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-45,265

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.46/sh (~25% of the $13.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,209.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,183.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,183-1,209.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,209.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,195.00 (1.2σ)	$2,770	$-6,381	+$38,804	+$200
+2.5%	$1,224.88 (1.4σ)	$-3,205	$-6,178	+$39,007	-$4,800
+5%	$1,254.75 (1.7σ)	$-9,180	$-5,975	+$39,210	-$4,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,185

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,736

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1195): -$3,712

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,161 (+$39,024 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,361 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,800, the opportunity cost of earning $11,871/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1150

17 Jul

12.7%

82%

26%

$4,250

$18,214

—

$11,232

Sell 2 × $1150 12.7% OTM over spot $1,020.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $21.85 mid)

= $4,250 credit for the 7d cycle → $18,214/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1150)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $1171.85)

85%

EV / mo

+$8,215

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,517

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,214

Free roll-up

+$22/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,359 @ 84% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $73.96/sh now → $52.32 mid-life (likely $51.68–$81.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $21.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 773 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,183 (overshoots $33.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,224	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.40/sh	+$2,879 cycle +$7,129 [+$372…+$3,539] · 79% credit	74% surv 66%	+$4,026 SAFE cap gain +$49,211
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,150	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$6.22/sh	+$1,243 cycle +$5,493 [+$99…+$2,074] · 78% credit	68% surv 52%	-$12,964 NOT cap gain +$32,221
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,159	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.42/sh	+$85 cycle +$4,335 [-$1,508…+$610] · 36% credit	69% surv 55%	-$12,211 NOT cap gain +$32,974
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,269	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.35/sh	+$69 cycle +$4,319 [-$2,920…+$505] · 32% credit	78% surv 72%	+$10,522 SAFE cap gain +$55,707
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,359	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$20.40/sh	-$4,081 cycle +$169 [-$7,897…-$3,832] · 4% credit	84% surv 82%	+$24,983 SAFE cap gain +$70,168
budget: banked $4,250 debit $4,081 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$169 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,639/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$18,214/mo
vs 50% target ($17,795/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($35,590/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,832/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1150 is $77 below CC-SS $1227.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,232
… as % of IC ($50,000)	22.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	5.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-45,305

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.31/sh (~25% of the $21.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,171.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,138-1,171.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,171.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,150.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,250	$-14,207	+$30,978	+$1,680
+2.5%	$1,178.75 (1.1σ)	$-1,500	$-14,012	+$31,173	-$4,070
+5%	$1,207.50 (1.3σ)	$-7,250	$-13,816	+$31,369	-$9,820
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.4σ)	$-9,750	$-13,731	+$31,454	-$12,320

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,185

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,736

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1150): -$11,232

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,681 (+$31,504 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,361 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,320, the opportunity cost of earning $18,214/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $1070

17 Jul

4.8%

65%

73%

$8,570

$36,729

+$18,514

$22,912

Sell 2 × $1070 4.8% OTM over spot $1,020.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $43.85 mid)

= $8,570 credit for the 7d cycle → $36,729/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1070)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $1113.85)

75%

EV / mo

+$10,614

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,643

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,166

Free roll-up

+$22/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,289 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $68.82/sh now → $48.68 mid-life (likely $61.54–$88.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $42.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,670 simulated challenges: the $1,070 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,104 (overshoots $33.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,070	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$7.63/sh	+$1,526 cycle +$10,096 [-$157…+$1,072] · 70% credit	68% surv 52%	-$24,905 NOT cap gain +$20,280
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,144	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.53/sh	+$2,906 cycle +$11,476 [-$595…+$1,741] · 66% credit	75% surv 66%	-$8,172 NOT cap gain +$37,013
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,079	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.86/sh	+$372 cycle +$8,942 [-$1,816…-$364] · 20% credit	69% surv 55%	-$24,148 NOT cap gain +$21,037
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,189	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.76/sh	+$151 cycle +$8,721 [-$3,955…-$1,196] · 14% credit	78% surv 72%	-$1,621 NOT cap gain +$43,564
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,289	24 Jul 2026	10d left	-$34.51/sh	-$6,901 cycle +$1,669 [-$12,570…-$8,814]	90% surv 89%	+$12,007 SAFE cap gain +$57,192
budget: banked $8,570 debit $6,901 (81% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,669 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,506/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$36,729/mo
vs 50% target ($17,795/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($35,590/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$36,346/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1070 is $157 below CC-SS $1227.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,912
… as % of IC ($50,000)	45.8%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	11.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-45,385

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.71/sh (~25% of the $42.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,113.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,070)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,059.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,059-1,113.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,113.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,070.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,570	$-26,431	+$18,754	+$6,000
+2.5%	$1,096.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,220	$-26,250	+$18,935	+$650
+5%	$1,123.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,130	$-26,068	+$19,117	-$4,700
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.4σ)	$-21,430	$-25,411	+$19,774	-$24,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,185

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,736

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1070): -$22,912

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,361 (+$19,824 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,361 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,000, the opportunity cost of earning $36,729/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (159 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 159 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$42,736 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,361

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1135	5d	15 Jul 2026	$15.20	2/2	$18,240	$17,857	84%	87%	+$9,474	-$15,442	30.9%	$-17,891 (vs do-nothing $-16,530)
$1130	5d	15 Jul 2026	$16.10	2/2	$19,320	$18,937	83%	86%	+$9,761	-$16,262	32.5%	$-18,711 (vs do-nothing $-17,350)
$1125	5d	15 Jul 2026	$17.15	2/2	$20,580	$20,197	82%	85%	+$10,167	-$17,052	34.1%	$-19,501 (vs do-nothing $-18,140)
$1150	7d	17 Jul 2026	$21.25	2/2	$18,214	$17,832	82%	85%	+$8,215	-$11,232	22.5%	$-13,681 (vs do-nothing $-12,320)
$1145	7d	17 Jul 2026	$22.25	2/2	$19,071	$18,689	81%	84%	+$8,409	-$12,032	24.1%	$-14,481 (vs do-nothing $-13,120)
$1120	5d	15 Jul 2026	$18.15	2/2	$21,780	$21,397	81%	84%	+$10,446	-$17,852	35.7%	$-20,301 (vs do-nothing $-18,940)
$1140	7d	17 Jul 2026	$23.30	2/2	$19,971	$19,589	80%	84%	+$8,607	-$12,822	25.6%	$-15,271 (vs do-nothing $-13,910)
$1115	5d	15 Jul 2026	$19.35	2/2	$23,220	$22,837	80%	84%	+$10,895	-$18,612	37.2%	$-21,061 (vs do-nothing $-19,700)
$1135	7d	17 Jul 2026	$24.45	2/2	$20,957	$20,574	79%	83%	+$8,851	-$13,592	27.2%	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing $-14,680)
$1110	5d	15 Jul 2026	$20.25	2/2	$24,300	$23,917	79%	83%	+$10,911	-$19,432	38.9%	$-21,881 (vs do-nothing $-20,520)
$1130	7d	17 Jul 2026	$25.60	2/2	$21,943	$21,560	78%	83%	+$9,054	-$14,362	28.7%	$-16,811 (vs do-nothing $-15,450)
$1105	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.65	2/2	$25,980	$25,597	77%	82%	+$11,449	-$20,152	40.3%	$-22,601 (vs do-nothing $-21,240)
$1125	7d	17 Jul 2026	$26.80	2/2	$22,971	$22,589	77%	82%	+$9,256	-$15,122	30.2%	$-17,571 (vs do-nothing $-16,210)

Show 146 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 146.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1120	7d	17 Jul 2026	$28.05	2/2	$24,043	$23,660	76%	81%	+$9,457	-$15,872	31.7%	$-18,321 (vs do-nothing $-16,960)
$1100	5d	15 Jul 2026	$22.90	2/2	$27,480	$27,097	76%	81%	+$11,727	-$20,902	41.8%	$-23,351 (vs do-nothing $-21,990)
$1115	7d	17 Jul 2026	$29.35	2/2	$25,157	$24,774	75%	81%	+$9,653	-$16,612	33.2%	$-19,061 (vs do-nothing $-17,700)
$1095	5d	15 Jul 2026	$24.20	2/2	$29,040	$28,657	75%	81%	+$11,980	-$21,642	43.3%	$-24,091 (vs do-nothing $-22,730)
$1110	7d	17 Jul 2026	$30.75	2/2	$26,357	$25,974	74%	80%	+$9,888	-$17,332	34.7%	$-19,781 (vs do-nothing $-18,420)
$1135	14d	24 Jul 2026	$41.75	2/2	$17,893	$17,510	74%	80%	+$5,836	-$10,132	20.3%	$-12,581 (vs do-nothing $-11,220)
$1125	12d	22 Jul 2026	$36.15	2/2	$18,075	$17,692	74%	80%	+$5,451	-$13,252	26.5%	$-15,701 (vs do-nothing $-14,340)
$1090	5d	15 Jul 2026	$25.40	2/2	$30,480	$30,097	74%	80%	+$12,025	-$22,402	44.8%	$-24,851 (vs do-nothing $-23,490)
$1105	7d	17 Jul 2026	$32.10	2/2	$27,514	$27,132	73%	79%	+$10,030	-$18,062	36.1%	$-20,511 (vs do-nothing $-19,150)
$1130	14d	24 Jul 2026	$42.25	2/2	$18,107	$17,724	73%	79%	+$5,537	-$11,032	22.1%	$-13,481 (vs do-nothing $-12,120)
$1115	10d	20 Jul 2026	$31.85	2/2	$19,110	$18,727	73%	79%	+$4,552	-$16,112	32.2%	$-18,561 (vs do-nothing $-17,200)
$1120	12d	22 Jul 2026	$37.30	2/2	$18,650	$18,267	73%	79%	+$5,431	-$14,022	28.0%	$-16,471 (vs do-nothing $-15,110)
$1125	14d	24 Jul 2026	$42.75	2/2	$18,321	$17,939	72%	79%	+$5,218	-$11,932	23.9%	$-14,381 (vs do-nothing $-13,020)
$1100	7d	17 Jul 2026	$33.55	2/2	$28,757	$28,374	72%	79%	+$10,206	-$18,772	37.5%	$-21,221 (vs do-nothing $-19,860)
$1085	5d	15 Jul 2026	$27.05	2/2	$32,460	$32,077	72%	79%	+$12,518	-$23,072	46.1%	$-25,521 (vs do-nothing $-24,160)
$1110	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.05	2/2	$19,230	$18,847	72%	78%	+$3,928	-$17,072	34.1%	$-19,521 (vs do-nothing $-18,160)
$1115	12d	22 Jul 2026	$38.85	2/2	$19,425	$19,042	72%	79%	+$5,586	-$14,712	29.4%	$-17,161 (vs do-nothing $-15,800)
$1120	14d	24 Jul 2026	$46.00	2/2	$19,714	$19,332	72%	78%	+$6,059	-$12,282	24.6%	$-14,731 (vs do-nothing $-13,370)
$1110	12d	22 Jul 2026	$40.30	2/2	$20,150	$19,767	71%	78%	+$5,665	-$15,422	30.8%	$-17,871 (vs do-nothing $-16,510)
$1105	10d	20 Jul 2026	$33.90	2/2	$20,340	$19,957	71%	78%	+$4,264	-$17,702	35.4%	$-20,151 (vs do-nothing $-18,790)
$1095	7d	17 Jul 2026	$35.05	2/2	$30,043	$29,660	71%	78%	+$10,372	-$19,472	38.9%	$-21,921 (vs do-nothing $-20,560)
$1115	14d	24 Jul 2026	$47.25	2/2	$20,250	$19,867	71%	78%	+$6,023	-$13,032	26.1%	$-15,481 (vs do-nothing $-14,120)
$1080	5d	15 Jul 2026	$28.60	2/2	$34,320	$33,937	71%	78%	+$12,796	-$23,762	47.5%	$-26,211 (vs do-nothing $-24,850)
$1105	12d	22 Jul 2026	$42.30	2/2	$21,150	$20,767	70%	78%	+$5,992	-$16,022	32.0%	$-18,471 (vs do-nothing $-17,110)
$1100	10d	20 Jul 2026	$35.40	2/2	$21,240	$20,857	70%	77%	+$4,358	-$18,402	36.8%	$-20,851 (vs do-nothing $-19,490)
$1110	14d	24 Jul 2026	$48.90	2/2	$20,957	$20,574	70%	77%	+$6,138	-$13,702	27.4%	$-16,151 (vs do-nothing $-14,790)
$1090	7d	17 Jul 2026	$36.60	2/2	$31,371	$30,989	70%	78%	+$10,526	-$20,162	40.3%	$-22,611 (vs do-nothing $-21,250)
$1100	12d	22 Jul 2026	$43.05	2/2	$21,525	$21,142	70%	77%	+$5,667	-$16,872	33.7%	$-19,321 (vs do-nothing $-17,960)
$1075	5d	15 Jul 2026	$29.85	1/2	$17,910	$21,382	69%	77%	+$6,307	-$12,256	24.5%	$-14,161 (vs do-nothing $-12,800)
$1095	10d	20 Jul 2026	$37.05	2/2	$22,230	$21,847	69%	77%	+$4,510	-$19,072	38.1%	$-21,521 (vs do-nothing $-20,160)
$1105	14d	24 Jul 2026	$50.25	2/2	$21,536	$21,153	69%	77%	+$6,104	-$14,432	28.9%	$-16,881 (vs do-nothing $-15,520)
$1085	7d	17 Jul 2026	$38.20	2/2	$32,743	$32,360	69%	77%	+$10,668	-$20,842	41.7%	$-23,291 (vs do-nothing $-21,930)
$1115	21d	31 Jul 2026	$62.40	2/2	$17,829	$17,446	69%	77%	+$4,241	-$10,002	20.0%	$-12,451 (vs do-nothing $-11,090)
$1095	12d	22 Jul 2026	$44.80	2/2	$22,400	$22,017	69%	77%	+$5,814	-$17,522	35.0%	$-19,971 (vs do-nothing $-18,610)
$1100	14d	24 Jul 2026	$52.05	2/2	$22,307	$21,924	68%	77%	+$6,242	-$15,072	30.1%	$-17,521 (vs do-nothing $-16,160)
$1090	10d	20 Jul 2026	$38.40	2/2	$23,040	$22,657	68%	76%	+$4,448	-$19,802	39.6%	$-22,251 (vs do-nothing $-20,890)
$1110	21d	31 Jul 2026	$64.40	2/2	$18,400	$18,017	68%	76%	+$4,379	-$10,602	21.2%	$-13,051 (vs do-nothing $-11,690)
$1070	5d	15 Jul 2026	$31.85	1/2	$19,110	$22,582	68%	77%	+$6,616	-$12,556	25.1%	$-14,461 (vs do-nothing $-13,100)
$1080	7d	17 Jul 2026	$39.85	2/2	$34,157	$33,774	68%	76%	+$10,795	-$21,512	43.0%	$-23,961 (vs do-nothing $-22,600)
$1090	12d	22 Jul 2026	$46.20	2/2	$23,100	$22,717	68%	76%	+$5,757	-$18,242	36.5%	$-20,691 (vs do-nothing $-19,330)
$1095	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.05	2/2	$22,736	$22,353	68%	76%	+$6,016	-$15,872	31.7%	$-18,321 (vs do-nothing $-16,960)
$1085	10d	20 Jul 2026	$39.95	2/2	$23,970	$23,587	67%	75%	+$4,474	-$20,492	41.0%	$-22,941 (vs do-nothing $-21,580)
$1105	21d	31 Jul 2026	$66.05	2/2	$18,871	$18,489	67%	76%	+$4,406	-$11,272	22.5%	$-13,721 (vs do-nothing $-12,360)
$1080	10d	20 Jul 2026	$41.55	2/2	$24,930	$24,547	67%	76%	+$5,842	-$21,172	42.3%	$-23,621 (vs do-nothing $-22,260)
$1090	14d	24 Jul 2026	$54.75	2/2	$23,464	$23,082	67%	76%	+$6,067	-$16,532	33.1%	$-18,981 (vs do-nothing $-17,620)
$1085	12d	22 Jul 2026	$48.40	2/2	$24,200	$23,817	67%	76%	+$6,071	-$18,802	37.6%	$-21,251 (vs do-nothing $-19,890)
$1100	21d	31 Jul 2026	$69.00	2/2	$19,714	$19,332	67%	75%	+$4,793	-$11,682	23.4%	$-14,131 (vs do-nothing $-12,770)
$1075	7d	17 Jul 2026	$41.10	2/2	$35,229	$34,846	67%	76%	+$10,520	-$22,262	44.5%	$-24,711 (vs do-nothing $-23,350)
$1065	5d	15 Jul 2026	$33.35	1/2	$20,010	$23,482	66%	76%	+$6,572	-$12,906	25.8%	$-14,811 (vs do-nothing $-13,450)
$1095	21d	31 Jul 2026	$69.35	2/2	$19,814	$19,432	66%	75%	+$4,424	-$12,612	25.2%	$-15,061 (vs do-nothing $-13,700)
$1085	14d	24 Jul 2026	$56.35	2/2	$24,150	$23,767	66%	75%	+$6,053	-$17,212	34.4%	$-19,661 (vs do-nothing $-18,300)
$1080	12d	22 Jul 2026	$48.75	2/2	$24,375	$23,992	66%	75%	+$5,429	-$19,732	39.5%	$-22,181 (vs do-nothing $-20,820)
$1070	7d	17 Jul 2026	$42.85	1/2	$18,364	$21,837	65%	75%	+$5,307	-$11,456	22.9%	$-13,361 (vs do-nothing $-12,000)
$1075	10d	20 Jul 2026	$43.30	2/2	$25,980	$25,597	65%	74%	+$4,570	-$21,822	43.6%	$-24,271 (vs do-nothing $-22,910)
$1090	21d	31 Jul 2026	$71.25	2/2	$20,357	$19,974	65%	75%	+$4,486	-$13,232	26.5%	$-15,681 (vs do-nothing $-14,320)
$1080	14d	24 Jul 2026	$57.25	2/2	$24,536	$24,153	65%	75%	+$5,717	-$18,032	36.1%	$-20,481 (vs do-nothing $-19,120)
$1060	5d	15 Jul 2026	$33.05	1/2	$19,830	$23,302	65%	75%	+$5,395	-$13,436	26.9%	$-15,341 (vs do-nothing $-13,980)
$1075	12d	22 Jul 2026	$51.20	2/2	$25,600	$25,217	65%	75%	+$5,807	-$20,242	40.5%	$-22,691 (vs do-nothing $-21,330)
$1065	7d	17 Jul 2026	$44.65	1/2	$19,136	$22,608	65%	75%	+$6,254	-$11,776	23.6%	$-13,681 (vs do-nothing $-12,320)
$1085	21d	31 Jul 2026	$73.80	2/2	$21,086	$20,703	65%	74%	+$4,722	-$13,722	27.4%	$-16,171 (vs do-nothing $-14,810)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 02:12