FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $1018.73

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1226.16 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-10 02:23 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $1018.73 UNDERWATER $201.27 (16.5% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1226.16 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$35,216/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$383/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-45,345	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,608/mo

HEDGE COVER
$383/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$35,216/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $198,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1226.16 (probe: $1230C 14d) still earns $9,257/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$42,896

was $45,345 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,604

CC-SS ratchet

$1,238.00 → $1,226.16

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$23.02	$4,604	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 81 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 38 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,226.57 (+20%) · daily UBB $1,218.13 · 1-wk expected move ±$142 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1150 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($17,608/mo); it brings $17,743/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1070/7d for $36,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1270/7d (94% survival, $2,850/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $11,092 (22% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-45,445 and cuts bleed by $383/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1150, 82% survival, $17,743/mo (E[net] $5,457/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $1150	82%	$17,743	$5,457

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $5,457/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1150 (primary), 82% survival, breach 18%, $17,743/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1195 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 18% → 12%) for $6,086/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $1,018.73 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1270

17 Jul

24.7%

94%

12%

$665

$2,850

-$14,893

Sell 1 × $1270 24.7% OTM over spot $1,018.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.88 mid)

= $665 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,850/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1270)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1276.88)

95%

EV / mo

+$1,892

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-1.9] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,887

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,162

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,401 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $82.37/sh now → $58.27 mid-life (likely $46.24–$83.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$51.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 240 simulated challenges: the $1,270 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,307 (overshoots $37.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,341	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$13.55/sh	+$1,355 cycle +$2,020 [+$666…+$2,653] · 89% credit	74% surv 65%	+$12,535 SAFE cap gain +$57,880
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,270	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.45/sh	+$345 cycle +$1,010 [+$171…+$1,406] · 85% credit	68% surv 52%	+$3,913 SAFE cap gain +$49,258
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,271	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.00/sh	+$300 cycle +$965 [+$125…+$1,345] · 83% credit	68% surv 53%	+$4,004 SAFE cap gain +$49,349
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,381	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.40/sh	+$40 cycle +$705 [-$894…+$1,133] · 51% credit	77% surv 70%	+$15,492 SAFE cap gain +$60,837
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,401	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$4.87/sh	-$487 cycle +$178 [-$1,526…+$544] · 36% credit	78% surv 72%	+$17,100 SAFE cap gain +$62,445
budget: banked $665 debit $487 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$178 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $8,900/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,850/mo
vs 50% target ($17,608/mo)	-84%
vs normal income ($35,216/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,322/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1226.16: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,695

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.66/sh (~25% of the $6.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,276.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,257-1,276.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,276.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,270.00 (1.8σ)	$665	$3,568	+$48,913	+$4,380
+2.5%	$1,301.75 (2.0σ)	$-2,510	$3,784	+$49,129	+$4,380
+5%	$1,333.50 (2.2σ)	$-5,685	$3,999	+$49,344	+$4,380

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,345

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,896

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1270): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $1220): +$669

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,780 (+$43,565 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,110 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-669, the opportunity cost of earning $2,850/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1215

17 Jul

19.3%

90%

21%

$2,230

$9,557

-$8,186

Sell 2 × $1215 19.3% OTM over spot $1,018.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $11.53 mid)

= $2,230 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,557/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1215)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1226.53)

91%

EV / mo

+$5,491

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-2.0] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,973

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,919

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,366 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $78.80/sh now → $55.74 mid-life (likely $47.58–$80.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$44.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 429 simulated challenges: the $1,215 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,252 (overshoots $37.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,286	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.15/sh	+$2,831 cycle +$5,061 [+$1,203…+$4,557] · 85% credit	74% surv 65%	+$15,043 SAFE cap gain +$60,388
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,215	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.71/sh	+$942 cycle +$3,172 [+$268…+$2,312] · 81% credit	68% surv 52%	-$1,584 NOT cap gain +$43,761
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,221	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.60/sh	+$119 cycle +$2,349 [-$754…+$1,358] · 54% credit	69% surv 54%	-$1,110 NOT cap gain +$44,235
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,326	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.14/sh	+$227 cycle +$2,457 [-$1,897…+$1,850] · 45% credit	77% surv 70%	+$20,711 SAFE cap gain +$66,056
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,366	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$9.53/sh	-$1,906 cycle +$324 [-$4,324…-$400] · 20% credit	80% surv 75%	+$26,850 SAFE cap gain +$72,195
budget: banked $2,230 debit $1,906 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$324 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $15,404/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,557/mo
vs 50% target ($17,608/mo)	-46%
vs normal income ($35,216/mo)	27% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,174/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1215 is at/above CC-SS $1226.16: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-45,420

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.79/sh (~25% of the $11.15 collected) or spot ≥ $1,226.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,215)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,202.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,203-1,226.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,226.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,215.00 (1.4σ)	$2,230	$-2,526	+$42,819	-$340
+2.5%	$1,245.38 (1.6σ)	$-3,845	$-2,320	+$43,025	-$1,340
+5%	$1,275.75 (1.8σ)	$-9,920	$-2,113	+$43,232	-$1,340

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,345

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,896

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1215): -$2

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,450 (+$42,895 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,110 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,340, the opportunity cost of earning $9,557/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $1195

17 Jul

17.3%

88%

25%

$2,720

$11,657

-$6,086

$3,512

Sell 2 × $1195 17.3% OTM over spot $1,018.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $13.97 mid)

= $2,720 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,657/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1195)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $1208.97)

90%

EV / mo

+$6,331

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,822

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,245

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,356 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $77.50/sh now → $54.83 mid-life (likely $49.81–$85.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$41.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 514 simulated challenges: the $1,195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,234 (overshoots $39.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,266	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.32/sh	+$2,865 cycle +$5,585 [+$732…+$4,410] · 83% credit	74% surv 65%	+$11,431 SAFE cap gain +$56,776
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,195	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.14/sh	+$1,027 cycle +$3,747 [+$76…+$2,210] · 77% credit	68% surv 52%	-$5,145 NOT cap gain +$40,200
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,201	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.04/sh	+$207 cycle +$2,927 [-$948…+$1,337] · 52% credit	69% surv 54%	-$4,669 NOT cap gain +$40,676
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,311	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$6 cycle +$2,726 [-$2,708…+$1,354] · 39% credit	77% surv 71%	+$17,878 SAFE cap gain +$63,223
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,356	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$11.34/sh	-$2,269 cycle +$451 [-$5,586…-$1,065] · 17% credit	81% surv 76%	+$24,909 SAFE cap gain +$70,254
budget: banked $2,720 debit $2,269 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$451 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,494/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,657/mo
vs 50% target ($17,608/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($35,216/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,274/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1195 is $31 below CC-SS $1226.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,512
… as % of IC ($50,000)	7.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	1.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-45,420

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.40/sh (~25% of the $13.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,208.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,183.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,183-1,208.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,208.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,195.00 (1.2σ)	$2,720	$-6,172	+$39,173	+$150
+2.5%	$1,224.88 (1.5σ)	$-3,255	$-5,969	+$39,376	-$4,850
+5%	$1,254.75 (1.7σ)	$-9,230	$-5,766	+$39,579	-$4,850

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,345

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,896

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1195): -$3,512

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,960 (+$39,385 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,110 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,850, the opportunity cost of earning $11,657/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1150

17 Jul

12.9%

82%

27%

$4,140

$17,743

—

$11,092

Sell 2 × $1150 12.9% OTM over spot $1,018.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $21.20 mid)

= $4,140 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,743/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1150)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $1171.20)

85%

EV / mo

+$8,114

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,272

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,412

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,351 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $74.58/sh now → $52.76 mid-life (likely $53.12–$82.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 815 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,185 (overshoots $34.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,221	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.61/sh	+$2,922 cycle +$7,062 [+$562…+$3,486] · 82% credit	74% surv 65%	+$3,602 SAFE cap gain +$48,947
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,150	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$6.03/sh	+$1,207 cycle +$5,347 [+$85…+$2,010] · 78% credit	68% surv 52%	-$12,852 NOT cap gain +$32,493
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,156	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.96/sh	+$392 cycle +$4,532 [-$928…+$1,043] · 47% credit	69% surv 54%	-$12,370 NOT cap gain +$32,975
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,266	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.45/sh	+$90 cycle +$4,230 [-$2,741…+$453] · 32% credit	78% surv 71%	+$10,076 SAFE cap gain +$55,421
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,351	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$20.09/sh	-$4,018 cycle +$122 [-$7,792…-$3,881] · 3% credit	84% surv 81%	+$23,546 SAFE cap gain +$68,891
budget: banked $4,140 debit $4,018 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,891/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$17,743/mo
vs 50% target ($17,608/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($35,216/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,360/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1150 is $76 below CC-SS $1226.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,092
… as % of IC ($50,000)	22.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	5.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-45,445

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.17/sh (~25% of the $20.70 collected) or spot ≥ $1,171.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,138-1,171.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,171.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,150.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,140	$-14,058	+$31,287	+$1,570
+2.5%	$1,178.75 (1.1σ)	$-1,610	$-13,863	+$31,482	-$4,180
+5%	$1,207.50 (1.3σ)	$-7,360	$-13,667	+$31,678	-$9,930
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.4σ)	$-9,860	$-13,582	+$31,763	-$12,430

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,345

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,896

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1150): -$11,092

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,540 (+$31,805 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,110 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,430, the opportunity cost of earning $17,743/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $1070

17 Jul

5.0%

66%

72%

$8,400

$36,000

+$18,257

$22,832

Sell 2 × $1070 5.0% OTM over spot $1,018.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $42.83 mid)

= $8,400 credit for the 7d cycle → $36,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1070)

66%

Breach risk

34%

POP (stays ≤ $1112.83)

75%

EV / mo

+$10,754

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,864

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,418

Free roll-up

+$26/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$1,291 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $69.40/sh now → $49.09 mid-life (likely $62.20–$89.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $42.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,670 simulated challenges: the $1,070 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,106 (overshoots $35.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,070	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$7.42/sh	+$1,483 cycle +$9,883 [-$133…+$1,047] · 70% credit	68% surv 53%	-$24,859 NOT cap gain +$20,486
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,141	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.79/sh	+$2,958 cycle +$11,358 [-$388…+$1,803] · 69% credit	74% surv 66%	-$8,646 NOT cap gain +$36,699
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,081	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.37/sh	+$73 cycle +$8,473 [-$2,028…-$655] · 16% credit	69% surv 56%	-$23,939 NOT cap gain +$21,406
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,186	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.90/sh	+$179 cycle +$8,579 [-$3,811…-$1,168] · 14% credit	78% surv 72%	-$2,119 NOT cap gain +$43,226
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,291	24 Jul 2026	10d left	-$34.90/sh	-$6,979 cycle +$1,421 [-$12,664…-$8,917]	90% surv 89%	+$12,437 SAFE cap gain +$57,782
budget: banked $8,400 debit $6,979 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,421 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,517/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$36,000/mo
vs 50% target ($17,608/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($35,216/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$35,617/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1070 is $156 below CC-SS $1226.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,832
… as % of IC ($50,000)	45.7%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	11.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-45,510

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.50/sh (~25% of the $42.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,112.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,070)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,059.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,059-1,112.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,112.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,070.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,400	$-26,342	+$19,003	+$5,830
+2.5%	$1,096.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,050	$-26,160	+$19,185	+$480
+5%	$1,123.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,300	$-25,979	+$19,366	-$4,870
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.4σ)	$-21,600	$-25,322	+$20,023	-$24,170

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1226.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,345

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,896

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1070): -$22,832

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,280 (+$20,065 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,110 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,170, the opportunity cost of earning $36,000/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (163 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 163 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$42,896 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,110

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1135	5d	15 Jul 2026	$14.75	2/2	$17,700	$17,317	84%	87%	+$9,318	-$15,282	30.6%	$-17,730 (vs do-nothing $-16,620)
$1130	5d	15 Jul 2026	$15.65	2/2	$18,780	$18,397	83%	86%	+$9,632	-$16,102	32.2%	$-18,550 (vs do-nothing $-17,440)
$1125	5d	15 Jul 2026	$16.65	2/2	$19,980	$19,597	82%	86%	+$10,006	-$16,902	33.8%	$-19,350 (vs do-nothing $-18,240)
$1150	7d	17 Jul 2026	$20.70	2/2	$17,743	$17,360	82%	85%	+$8,114	-$11,092	22.2%	$-13,540 (vs do-nothing $-12,430)
$1120	5d	15 Jul 2026	$17.65	2/2	$21,180	$20,797	81%	85%	+$10,315	-$17,702	35.4%	$-20,150 (vs do-nothing $-19,040)
$1145	7d	17 Jul 2026	$21.65	2/2	$18,557	$18,174	81%	85%	+$8,291	-$11,902	23.8%	$-14,350 (vs do-nothing $-13,240)
$1140	7d	17 Jul 2026	$22.60	2/2	$19,371	$18,989	80%	84%	+$8,431	-$12,712	25.4%	$-15,160 (vs do-nothing $-14,050)
$1115	5d	15 Jul 2026	$18.75	2/2	$22,500	$22,117	80%	84%	+$10,676	-$18,482	37.0%	$-20,930 (vs do-nothing $-19,820)
$1135	7d	17 Jul 2026	$23.75	2/2	$20,357	$19,974	79%	83%	+$8,703	-$13,482	27.0%	$-15,930 (vs do-nothing $-14,820)
$1110	5d	15 Jul 2026	$19.85	2/2	$23,820	$23,437	79%	83%	+$10,965	-$19,262	38.5%	$-21,710 (vs do-nothing $-20,600)
$1130	7d	17 Jul 2026	$24.85	2/2	$21,300	$20,917	79%	83%	+$8,892	-$14,262	28.5%	$-16,710 (vs do-nothing $-15,600)
$1105	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.05	2/2	$25,260	$24,877	78%	83%	+$11,299	-$20,022	40.0%	$-22,470 (vs do-nothing $-21,360)
$1125	7d	17 Jul 2026	$26.10	2/2	$22,371	$21,989	78%	82%	+$9,167	-$15,012	30.0%	$-17,460 (vs do-nothing $-16,350)

Show 150 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 150.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1120	7d	17 Jul 2026	$27.80	2/2	$23,829	$23,446	77%	82%	+$9,783	-$15,672	31.3%	$-18,120 (vs do-nothing $-17,010)
$1100	5d	15 Jul 2026	$22.40	2/2	$26,880	$26,497	77%	82%	+$11,734	-$20,752	41.5%	$-23,200 (vs do-nothing $-22,090)
$1115	7d	17 Jul 2026	$28.60	2/2	$24,514	$24,132	76%	81%	+$9,582	-$16,512	33.0%	$-18,960 (vs do-nothing $-17,850)
$1095	5d	15 Jul 2026	$23.60	2/2	$28,320	$27,937	75%	81%	+$11,907	-$21,512	43.0%	$-23,960 (vs do-nothing $-22,850)
$1120	10d	20 Jul 2026	$29.35	2/2	$17,610	$17,227	75%	80%	+$5,135	-$15,362	30.7%	$-17,810 (vs do-nothing $-16,700)
$1110	7d	17 Jul 2026	$29.90	2/2	$25,629	$25,246	75%	80%	+$9,762	-$17,252	34.5%	$-19,700 (vs do-nothing $-18,590)
$1090	5d	15 Jul 2026	$24.95	2/2	$29,940	$29,557	74%	80%	+$12,173	-$22,242	44.5%	$-24,690 (vs do-nothing $-23,580)
$1115	10d	20 Jul 2026	$30.90	2/2	$18,540	$18,157	74%	80%	+$5,386	-$16,052	32.1%	$-18,500 (vs do-nothing $-17,390)
$1105	7d	17 Jul 2026	$31.30	2/2	$26,829	$26,446	74%	80%	+$9,979	-$17,972	35.9%	$-20,420 (vs do-nothing $-19,310)
$1130	14d	24 Jul 2026	$42.25	2/2	$18,107	$17,724	73%	79%	+$5,700	-$10,782	21.6%	$-13,230 (vs do-nothing $-12,120)
$1120	12d	22 Jul 2026	$37.25	2/2	$18,625	$18,242	73%	79%	+$5,643	-$13,782	27.6%	$-16,230 (vs do-nothing $-15,120)
$1110	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.30	2/2	$19,380	$18,997	73%	79%	+$5,516	-$16,772	33.5%	$-19,220 (vs do-nothing $-18,110)
$1085	5d	15 Jul 2026	$26.40	2/2	$31,680	$31,297	73%	79%	+$12,469	-$22,952	45.9%	$-25,400 (vs do-nothing $-24,290)
$1100	7d	17 Jul 2026	$33.00	2/2	$28,286	$27,903	73%	79%	+$10,402	-$18,632	37.3%	$-21,080 (vs do-nothing $-19,970)
$1125	14d	24 Jul 2026	$42.75	2/2	$18,321	$17,939	73%	79%	+$5,389	-$11,682	23.4%	$-14,130 (vs do-nothing $-13,020)
$1105	10d	20 Jul 2026	$33.90	2/2	$20,340	$19,957	72%	79%	+$5,734	-$17,452	34.9%	$-19,900 (vs do-nothing $-18,790)
$1115	12d	22 Jul 2026	$38.00	2/2	$19,000	$18,617	72%	78%	+$4,763	-$14,632	29.3%	$-17,080 (vs do-nothing $-15,970)
$1120	14d	24 Jul 2026	$44.80	2/2	$19,200	$18,817	72%	78%	+$5,722	-$12,272	24.5%	$-14,720 (vs do-nothing $-13,610)
$1095	7d	17 Jul 2026	$34.15	2/2	$29,271	$28,889	72%	79%	+$10,301	-$19,402	38.8%	$-21,850 (vs do-nothing $-20,740)
$1110	12d	22 Jul 2026	$39.40	2/2	$19,700	$19,317	72%	78%	+$5,482	-$15,352	30.7%	$-17,800 (vs do-nothing $-16,690)
$1080	5d	15 Jul 2026	$27.90	2/2	$33,480	$33,097	71%	79%	+$12,731	-$23,652	47.3%	$-26,100 (vs do-nothing $-24,990)
$1100	10d	20 Jul 2026	$35.35	2/2	$21,210	$20,827	71%	78%	+$5,828	-$18,162	36.3%	$-20,610 (vs do-nothing $-19,500)
$1115	14d	24 Jul 2026	$45.25	2/2	$19,393	$19,010	71%	78%	+$5,351	-$13,182	26.4%	$-15,630 (vs do-nothing $-14,520)
$1090	7d	17 Jul 2026	$35.70	2/2	$30,600	$30,217	71%	78%	+$10,489	-$20,092	40.2%	$-22,540 (vs do-nothing $-21,430)
$1105	12d	22 Jul 2026	$40.85	2/2	$20,425	$20,042	70%	77%	+$4,869	-$16,062	32.1%	$-18,510 (vs do-nothing $-17,400)
$1110	14d	24 Jul 2026	$47.80	2/2	$20,486	$20,103	70%	78%	+$5,859	-$13,672	27.3%	$-16,120 (vs do-nothing $-15,010)
$1095	10d	20 Jul 2026	$37.05	2/2	$22,230	$21,847	70%	78%	+$6,038	-$18,822	37.6%	$-21,270 (vs do-nothing $-20,160)
$1075	5d	15 Jul 2026	$29.55	1/2	$17,730	$21,202	70%	78%	+$6,539	-$12,161	24.3%	$-13,940 (vs do-nothing $-12,830)
$1100	12d	22 Jul 2026	$43.05	2/2	$21,525	$21,142	70%	77%	+$5,274	-$16,622	33.2%	$-19,070 (vs do-nothing $-17,960)
$1105	14d	24 Jul 2026	$48.45	2/2	$20,764	$20,382	70%	77%	+$5,532	-$14,542	29.1%	$-16,990 (vs do-nothing $-15,880)
$1085	7d	17 Jul 2026	$37.30	2/2	$31,971	$31,589	69%	77%	+$10,664	-$20,772	41.5%	$-23,220 (vs do-nothing $-22,110)
$1090	10d	20 Jul 2026	$38.40	2/2	$23,040	$22,657	69%	77%	+$6,002	-$19,552	39.1%	$-22,000 (vs do-nothing $-20,890)
$1115	21d	31 Jul 2026	$62.35	2/2	$17,814	$17,432	69%	77%	+$4,497	-$9,762	19.5%	$-12,210 (vs do-nothing $-11,100)
$1100	14d	24 Jul 2026	$51.50	2/2	$22,071	$21,689	69%	77%	+$6,213	-$14,932	29.9%	$-17,380 (vs do-nothing $-16,270)
$1095	12d	22 Jul 2026	$44.05	2/2	$22,025	$21,642	69%	76%	+$5,054	-$17,422	34.8%	$-19,870 (vs do-nothing $-18,760)
$1070	5d	15 Jul 2026	$31.15	1/2	$18,690	$22,162	69%	77%	+$6,632	-$12,501	25.0%	$-14,280 (vs do-nothing $-13,170)
$1110	21d	31 Jul 2026	$63.50	2/2	$18,143	$17,760	68%	76%	+$4,400	-$10,532	21.1%	$-12,980 (vs do-nothing $-11,870)
$1080	7d	17 Jul 2026	$38.90	2/2	$33,343	$32,960	68%	77%	+$10,782	-$21,452	42.9%	$-23,900 (vs do-nothing $-22,790)
$1085	10d	20 Jul 2026	$40.20	2/2	$24,120	$23,737	68%	76%	+$6,201	-$20,192	40.4%	$-22,640 (vs do-nothing $-21,530)
$1095	14d	24 Jul 2026	$51.95	2/2	$22,264	$21,882	68%	76%	+$5,758	-$15,842	31.7%	$-18,290 (vs do-nothing $-17,180)
$1090	12d	22 Jul 2026	$46.20	2/2	$23,100	$22,717	68%	76%	+$5,383	-$17,992	36.0%	$-20,440 (vs do-nothing $-19,330)
$1105	21d	31 Jul 2026	$64.40	2/2	$18,400	$18,017	68%	76%	+$4,220	-$11,352	22.7%	$-13,800 (vs do-nothing $-12,690)
$1080	10d	20 Jul 2026	$41.55	2/2	$24,930	$24,547	67%	76%	+$6,093	-$20,922	41.8%	$-23,370 (vs do-nothing $-22,260)
$1075	7d	17 Jul 2026	$40.65	2/2	$34,843	$34,460	67%	76%	+$10,969	-$22,102	44.2%	$-24,550 (vs do-nothing $-23,440)
$1065	5d	15 Jul 2026	$32.90	1/2	$19,740	$23,212	67%	76%	+$6,763	-$12,826	25.7%	$-14,605 (vs do-nothing $-13,495)
$1090	14d	24 Jul 2026	$54.15	2/2	$23,207	$22,824	67%	76%	+$6,031	-$16,402	32.8%	$-18,850 (vs do-nothing $-17,740)
$1100	21d	31 Jul 2026	$66.75	2/2	$19,071	$18,689	67%	76%	+$4,443	-$11,882	23.8%	$-14,330 (vs do-nothing $-13,220)
$1085	12d	22 Jul 2026	$47.05	2/2	$23,525	$23,142	67%	75%	+$5,037	-$18,822	37.6%	$-21,270 (vs do-nothing $-20,160)
$1095	21d	31 Jul 2026	$68.10	2/2	$19,457	$19,074	66%	75%	+$4,368	-$12,612	25.2%	$-15,060 (vs do-nothing $-13,950)
$1085	14d	24 Jul 2026	$55.35	2/2	$23,721	$23,339	66%	75%	+$5,854	-$17,162	34.3%	$-19,610 (vs do-nothing $-18,500)
$1075	10d	20 Jul 2026	$43.30	2/2	$25,980	$25,597	66%	75%	+$6,187	-$21,572	43.1%	$-24,020 (vs do-nothing $-22,910)
$1070	7d	17 Jul 2026	$42.00	1/2	$18,000	$21,472	66%	75%	+$5,377	-$11,416	22.8%	$-13,195 (vs do-nothing $-12,085)
$1080	12d	22 Jul 2026	$48.75	2/2	$24,375	$23,992	66%	75%	+$5,089	-$19,482	39.0%	$-21,930 (vs do-nothing $-20,820)
$1060	5d	15 Jul 2026	$33.95	1/2	$20,370	$23,842	66%	75%	+$6,421	-$13,221	26.4%	$-15,000 (vs do-nothing $-13,890)
$1090	21d	31 Jul 2026	$69.90	2/2	$19,971	$19,589	66%	75%	+$4,409	-$13,252	26.5%	$-15,700 (vs do-nothing $-14,590)
$1080	14d	24 Jul 2026	$57.25	2/2	$24,536	$24,153	65%	75%	+$5,954	-$17,782	35.6%	$-20,230 (vs do-nothing $-19,120)
$1070	10d	20 Jul 2026	$45.50	2/2	$27,300	$26,917	65%	75%	+$6,512	-$22,132	44.3%	$-24,580 (vs do-nothing $-23,470)
$1075	12d	22 Jul 2026	$51.20	2/2	$25,600	$25,217	65%	74%	+$5,489	-$19,992	40.0%	$-22,440 (vs do-nothing $-21,330)
$1085	21d	31 Jul 2026	$72.15	2/2	$20,614	$20,232	65%	74%	+$4,567	-$13,802	27.6%	$-16,250 (vs do-nothing $-15,140)
$1065	7d	17 Jul 2026	$43.70	1/2	$18,729	$22,201	65%	75%	+$5,354	-$11,746	23.5%	$-13,525 (vs do-nothing $-12,415)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 02:23