FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $1001.54

BE SS: $1220.00  |  CC-SS: $1225.99  |  2 contracts (200 sh)  |  2026-07-10 03:38 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $1001.54   UNDERWATER $218.46 (17.9% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh)  |  BE SS: $1220.00  |  CC-SS: $1225.99  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)
SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)
HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$198,000(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref$33,729/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$401/mo
Unrealized P&L$-48,865fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$16,864/mo
HEDGE COVER
$401/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$33,729/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $50,000
ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $198,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1225.99 (probe: $1230C 14d) still earns $7,736/mo (23% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$2,449
Hole (after banked)
$46,416
was $48,865 · 5% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$4,604
CC-SS ratchet
$1,237.83 → $1,225.99
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026U13190865$23.02$4,6042026-07-06
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 80 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 34 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,224.31 (+22%) · daily UBB $1,218.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$140 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 2 contracts at $1125 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($16,864/mo); it brings $17,571/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1050/7d for $35,100/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1270/7d (95% survival, $2,100/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $16,098 (32% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-48,965 and cuts bleed by $401/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1125, 81% survival, $17,571/mo (E[net] $5,226/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d2 × $112581%$17,571$5,226

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $5,226/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1125 (primary), 81% survival, breach 19%, $17,571/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1170 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 19% → 13%) for $6,214/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $1,001.54 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $127017 Jul7d26.8%95%10%$490$2,100-$15,471$0
Sell 1 × $1270 26.8% OTM over spot $1,001.54 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.35 mid)
= $490 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,100/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1270)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $1275.35)
96%
EV / mo
+$1,386
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.1] median  ·  71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without)  ·  ~0.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,872
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,142
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,393 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $79.62/sh now → $56.32 mid-life (likely $44.78–$77.31)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$51.42/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 194 simulated challenges: the $1,270 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,309 (overshoots $39.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,33831 Jul 202618d left+$13.94/sh+$1,394
cycle +$1,884
[+$980…+$2,712] · 87% credit
73%
surv 64%
+$11,858 SAFE
cap gain +$60,723
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,27020 Jul 20266d left+$0.82/sh+$82
cycle +$572
[+$17…+$1,197] · 77% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$3,234 SAFE
cap gain +$52,099
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,37831 Jul 202618d left+$0.68/sh+$68
cycle +$558
[-$667…+$1,236] · 59% credit
76%
surv 70%
+$14,804 SAFE
cap gain +$63,669
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,39331 Jul 202618d left-$3.45/sh-$345
cycle +$145
[-$1,203…+$777] · 42% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$15,993 SAFE
cap gain +$64,858
budget: banked $490 debit $345 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $8,813/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($16,864/mo)-88%
vs normal income ($33,729/mo)6% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,729/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1225.99: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-24,478
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.23/sh (~25% of the $4.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,275.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,257-1,275.35
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,275.35
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,270.00 (1.9σ)$490$3,153+$52,018+$4,480
+2.5%$1,301.75 (2.2σ)$-2,685$3,368+$52,233+$4,480
+5%$1,333.50 (2.4σ)$-5,860$3,584+$52,449+$4,480
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1225.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,865
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,416
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1270): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $1220): +$411
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,038 (+$46,827 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,627 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-411, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield2 × $119517 Jul7d19.3%90%21%$2,110$9,043-$8,529$4,088
Sell 2 × $1195 19.3% OTM over spot $1,001.54 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $10.90 mid)
= $2,110 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,043/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1195)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1205.90)
91%
EV / mo
+$4,984
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo)  ·  78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without)  ·  ~1.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $9,860
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$8,490
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,343 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $74.92/sh now → $53.00 mid-life (likely $49.22–$78.66)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $10.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$42.45/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 413 simulated challenges: the $1,195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,233 (overshoots $37.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,26331 Jul 202618d left+$14.75/sh+$2,950
cycle +$5,060
[+$1,258…+$4,423] · 87% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$10,360 SAFE
cap gain +$59,225
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,19520 Jul 20266d left+$2.61/sh+$522
cycle +$2,632
[-$213…+$1,770] · 68% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$6,225 NOT
cap gain +$42,640
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,19820 Jul 20266d left+$1.00/sh+$200
cycle +$2,310
[-$560…+$1,408] · 59% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$5,832 NOT
cap gain +$43,033
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,30331 Jul 202618d left+$1.67/sh+$335
cycle +$2,445
[-$1,877…+$1,582] · 45% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$16,017 SAFE
cap gain +$64,882
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,34331 Jul 202618d left-$8.29/sh-$1,658
cycle +$452
[-$4,267…-$564] · 18% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$22,296 SAFE
cap gain +$71,161
budget: banked $2,110 debit $1,658 (79% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$452 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,902/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,043/mo
vs 50% target ($16,864/mo)-46%
vs normal income ($33,729/mo)27% covered
Net income (after hedge)$8,642/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1195 is $31 below CC-SS $1225.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,088
… as % of IC ($50,000)8.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)2.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-48,935
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.64/sh (~25% of the $10.55 collected) or spot ≥ $1,205.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,183.05Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,183-1,205.90
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,205.90
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,195.00 (1.4σ)$2,110$-6,747+$42,118+$90
+2.5%$1,224.88 (1.6σ)$-3,865$-6,544+$42,321-$4,910
+5%$1,254.75 (1.8σ)$-9,840$-6,341+$42,524-$4,910
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1225.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,865
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,416
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1195): -$4,088
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,537 (+$42,328 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,627 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,910, the opportunity cost of earning $9,043/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal2 × $117017 Jul7d16.8%87%26%$2,650$11,357-$6,214$8,548
Sell 2 × $1170 16.8% OTM over spot $1,001.54 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $13.75 mid)
= $2,650 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,357/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1170)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $1183.75)
89%
EV / mo
+$5,650
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo)  ·  78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without)  ·  ~2.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $11,629
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
19%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$7,728
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,328 @ 81% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $73.35/sh now → $51.89 mid-life (likely $49.19–$81.43)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $13.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$38.64/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 566 simulated challenges: the $1,170 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,208 (overshoots $37.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,23831 Jul 202618d left+$14.94/sh+$2,987
cycle +$5,637
[+$1,044…+$4,204] · 86% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$5,767 SAFE
cap gain +$54,632
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,17020 Jul 20266d left+$3.16/sh+$632
cycle +$3,282
[-$293…+$1,747] · 67% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$10,746 NOT
cap gain +$38,119
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,17320 Jul 20266d left+$1.55/sh+$311
cycle +$2,961
[-$628…+$1,409] · 55% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$10,351 NOT
cap gain +$38,514
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,27831 Jul 202618d left+$1.93/sh+$386
cycle +$3,036
[-$2,122…+$1,345] · 41% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$11,438 SAFE
cap gain +$60,303
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,32831 Jul 202618d left-$10.70/sh-$2,139
cycle +$511
[-$5,310…-$1,404] · 14% credit
81%
surv 76%
+$19,253 SAFE
cap gain +$68,118
budget: banked $2,650 debit $2,139 (81% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$511 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,731/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$11,357/mo
vs 50% target ($16,864/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($33,729/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$10,956/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1170 is $56 below CC-SS $1225.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$8,548
… as % of IC ($50,000)17.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)4.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-48,965
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.31/sh (~25% of the $13.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,183.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,158.30Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,158-1,183.75
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,183.75
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,170.00 (1.2σ)$2,650$-11,377+$37,488+$630
+2.5%$1,199.25 (1.4σ)$-3,200$-11,179+$37,686-$5,220
+5%$1,228.50 (1.6σ)$-9,050$-10,980+$37,885-$9,370
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1225.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,865
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,416
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1170): -$8,548
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,997 (+$37,868 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,627 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,370, the opportunity cost of earning $11,357/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal2 × $112517 Jul7d12.3%81%29%$4,100$17,571$16,098
Sell 2 × $1125 12.3% OTM over spot $1,001.54 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $21.00 mid)
= $4,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,571/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1125)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $1146.00)
84%
EV / mo
+$7,238
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.7 mo [0.4-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo)  ·  74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without)  ·  ~4.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $16,071
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
29%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,879
Free roll-up
+$20/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,333 @ 84% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $70.53/sh now → $49.89 mid-life (likely $51.40–$80.83)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $20.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$29.39/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 866 simulated challenges: the $1,125 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,160 (overshoots $35.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,19331 Jul 202618d left+$15.17/sh+$3,034
cycle +$7,134
[+$715…+$3,461] · 83% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$2,042 NOT
cap gain +$46,823
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,12520 Jul 20266d left+$4.08/sh+$815
cycle +$4,915
[-$396…+$1,531] · 62% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$18,418 NOT
cap gain +$30,447
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,13320 Jul 20266d left+$0.25/sh+$50
cycle +$4,150
[-$1,286…+$558] · 37% credit
69%
surv 55%
-$17,434 NOT
cap gain +$31,431
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,24331 Jul 202618d left+$0.24/sh+$49
cycle +$4,149
[-$2,860…+$313] · 29% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$5,313 SAFE
cap gain +$54,178
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,33331 Jul 202618d left-$20.42/sh-$4,085
cycle +$15
[-$8,047…-$4,099] · 2% credit
84%
surv 82%
+$19,791 SAFE
cap gain +$68,656
budget: banked $4,100 debit $4,085 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $9,823/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$17,571/mo
vs 50% target ($16,864/mo)+4%
vs normal income ($33,729/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$17,170/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1125 is $101 below CC-SS $1225.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$16,098
… as % of IC ($50,000)32.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)8.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-48,965
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.12/sh (~25% of the $20.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,146.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,113.75Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,114-1,146.00
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,146.00
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,125.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,100$-19,233+$29,632+$2,080
+2.5%$1,153.12 (1.1σ)$-1,525$-19,042+$29,823-$3,545
+5%$1,181.25 (1.3σ)$-7,150$-18,851+$30,014-$9,170
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.6σ)$-14,900$-18,587+$30,278-$16,920
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1225.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,865
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,416
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1125): -$16,098
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,547 (+$30,318 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,627 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,920, the opportunity cost of earning $17,571/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal2 × $105017 Jul7d4.8%65%73%$8,190$35,100+$17,529$27,008
Sell 2 × $1050 4.8% OTM over spot $1,001.54 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $41.58 mid)
= $8,190 credit for the 7d cycle → $35,100/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1050)
65%
Breach risk
35%
POP (stays ≤ $1091.58)
75%
EV / mo
+$9,581
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.7 mo [0.4-1.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo)  ·  82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without)  ·  ~8.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $21,692
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
56%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,124
Free roll-up
+$31/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,268 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $65.83/sh now → $46.57 mid-life (likely $58.71–$85.63)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $40.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.62/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,682 simulated challenges: the $1,050 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,085 (overshoots $34.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,11831 Jul 202618d left+$15.27/sh+$3,053
cycle +$11,243
[-$28…+$2,141] · 75% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$13,443 NOT
cap gain +$35,422
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,05020 Jul 20266d left+$5.42/sh+$1,085
cycle +$9,275
[-$500…+$723] · 48% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$29,569 NOT
cap gain +$19,296
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,06320 Jul 20266d left+$0.35/sh+$70
cycle +$8,260
[-$1,691…-$422] · 17% credit
70%
surv 57%
-$27,800 NOT
cap gain +$21,065
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,16831 Jul 202618d left+$0.60/sh+$121
cycle +$8,311
[-$3,630…-$1,064] · 14% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$6,035 NOT
cap gain +$42,830
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,26824 Jul 202610d left-$33.06/sh-$6,611
cycle +$1,579
[-$12,052…-$8,393]
90%
surv 89%
+$7,913 SAFE
cap gain +$56,778
budget: banked $8,190 debit $6,611 (81% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,579 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,108/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$35,100/mo
vs 50% target ($16,864/mo)+108%
vs normal income ($33,729/mo)104% covered
Net income (after hedge)$34,699/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1050 is $176 below CC-SS $1225.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$27,008
… as % of IC ($50,000)54.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)13.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-48,990
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.24/sh (~25% of the $40.95 collected) or spot ≥ $1,091.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,050)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,039.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,040-1,091.58
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,091.58
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,050.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$8,190$-30,653+$18,212+$6,170
+2.5%$1,076.25 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,940$-30,475+$18,390+$920
+5%$1,102.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,310$-30,296+$18,569-$4,330
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.6σ)$-25,810$-29,497+$19,368-$27,830
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1225.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,865
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,416
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1050): -$27,008
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,457 (+$19,408 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,627 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,830, the opportunity cost of earning $35,100/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (156 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 156 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$46,416 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,627

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$11105d15 Jul 2026$14.552/2$17,460$17,05983%86%+$8,068-$20,28840.6%$-22,737 (vs do-nothing $-21,110)
$11055d15 Jul 2026$15.502/2$18,600$18,19982%85%+$8,378-$21,09842.2%$-23,547 (vs do-nothing $-21,920)
$11257d17 Jul 2026$20.502/2$17,571$17,17081%84%+$7,238-$16,09832.2%$-18,547 (vs do-nothing $-16,920)
$11005d15 Jul 2026$16.452/2$19,740$19,33981%84%+$8,624-$21,90843.8%$-24,357 (vs do-nothing $-22,730)
$11207d17 Jul 2026$21.652/2$18,557$18,15680%84%+$7,541-$16,86833.7%$-19,317 (vs do-nothing $-17,690)
$10955d15 Jul 2026$17.452/2$20,940$20,53980%84%+$8,861-$22,70845.4%$-25,157 (vs do-nothing $-23,530)
$11157d17 Jul 2026$22.502/2$19,286$18,88579%83%+$7,548-$17,69835.4%$-20,147 (vs do-nothing $-18,520)
$10905d15 Jul 2026$18.602/2$22,320$21,91979%83%+$9,205-$23,47847.0%$-25,927 (vs do-nothing $-24,300)
$11107d17 Jul 2026$23.752/2$20,357$19,95678%82%+$7,856-$18,44836.9%$-20,897 (vs do-nothing $-19,270)
$10855d15 Jul 2026$19.652/2$23,580$23,17977%82%+$9,353-$24,26848.5%$-26,717 (vs do-nothing $-25,090)
$11057d17 Jul 2026$24.852/2$21,300$20,89977%82%+$7,992-$19,22838.5%$-21,677 (vs do-nothing $-20,050)
$11007d17 Jul 2026$26.102/2$22,371$21,97076%81%+$8,212-$19,97840.0%$-22,427 (vs do-nothing $-20,800)
$10805d15 Jul 2026$20.952/2$25,140$24,73976%81%+$9,720-$25,00850.0%$-27,457 (vs do-nothing $-25,830)
Show 143 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 143.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10957d17 Jul 2026$27.302/2$23,400$22,99975%81%+$8,342-$20,73841.5%$-23,187 (vs do-nothing $-21,560)
$10755d15 Jul 2026$22.252/2$26,700$26,29975%80%+$10,001-$25,74851.5%$-28,197 (vs do-nothing $-26,570)
$110010d20 Jul 2026$28.502/2$17,100$16,69975%80%+$4,557-$19,49839.0%$-21,947 (vs do-nothing $-20,320)
$10907d17 Jul 2026$28.452/2$24,386$23,98574%80%+$8,382-$21,50843.0%$-23,957 (vs do-nothing $-22,330)
$109510d20 Jul 2026$29.602/2$17,760$17,35974%79%+$4,528-$20,27840.6%$-22,727 (vs do-nothing $-21,100)
$10705d15 Jul 2026$23.602/2$28,320$27,91974%80%+$10,253-$26,47853.0%$-28,927 (vs do-nothing $-27,300)
$110512d22 Jul 2026$34.002/2$17,000$16,59974%79%+$4,008-$17,39834.8%$-19,847 (vs do-nothing $-18,220)
$10857d17 Jul 2026$29.852/2$25,586$25,18573%79%+$8,585-$22,22844.5%$-24,677 (vs do-nothing $-23,050)
$111014d24 Jul 2026$40.102/2$17,186$16,78573%79%+$4,866-$15,17830.4%$-17,627 (vs do-nothing $-16,000)
$110012d22 Jul 2026$35.052/2$17,525$17,12473%79%+$4,622-$18,18836.4%$-20,637 (vs do-nothing $-19,010)
$109010d20 Jul 2026$31.502/2$18,900$18,49973%79%+$4,948-$20,89841.8%$-23,347 (vs do-nothing $-21,720)
$110514d24 Jul 2026$41.802/2$17,914$17,51373%79%+$5,063-$15,83831.7%$-18,287 (vs do-nothing $-16,660)
$10807d17 Jul 2026$31.302/2$26,829$26,42872%79%+$8,780-$22,93845.9%$-25,387 (vs do-nothing $-23,760)
$10655d15 Jul 2026$24.702/2$29,640$29,23972%79%+$10,112-$27,25854.5%$-29,707 (vs do-nothing $-28,080)
$109512d22 Jul 2026$37.052/2$18,525$18,12472%78%+$4,295-$18,78837.6%$-21,237 (vs do-nothing $-19,610)
$108510d20 Jul 2026$32.502/2$19,500$19,09972%78%+$4,794-$21,69843.4%$-24,147 (vs do-nothing $-22,520)
$110014d24 Jul 2026$42.552/2$18,236$17,83572%78%+$4,832-$16,68833.4%$-19,137 (vs do-nothing $-17,510)
$10757d17 Jul 2026$32.702/2$28,029$27,62871%78%+$8,878-$23,65847.3%$-26,107 (vs do-nothing $-24,480)
$109012d22 Jul 2026$38.652/2$19,325$18,92471%78%+$4,441-$19,46838.9%$-21,917 (vs do-nothing $-20,290)
$109514d24 Jul 2026$44.702/2$19,157$18,75671%78%+$5,182-$17,25834.5%$-19,707 (vs do-nothing $-18,080)
$108010d20 Jul 2026$33.602/2$20,160$19,75971%78%+$4,666-$22,47845.0%$-24,927 (vs do-nothing $-23,300)
$10605d15 Jul 2026$26.552/2$31,860$31,45971%78%+$9,849-$27,88855.8%$-30,337 (vs do-nothing $-28,710)
$108512d22 Jul 2026$39.902/2$19,950$19,54970%77%+$4,388-$20,21840.4%$-22,667 (vs do-nothing $-21,040)
$109014d24 Jul 2026$46.202/2$19,800$19,39970%77%+$5,232-$17,95835.9%$-20,407 (vs do-nothing $-18,780)
$10707d17 Jul 2026$34.352/2$29,443$29,04270%77%+$9,136-$24,32848.7%$-26,777 (vs do-nothing $-25,150)
$107510d20 Jul 2026$35.102/2$21,060$20,65970%77%+$4,743-$23,17846.4%$-25,627 (vs do-nothing $-24,000)
$108514d24 Jul 2026$46.902/2$20,100$19,69969%77%+$4,918-$18,81837.6%$-21,267 (vs do-nothing $-19,640)
$108012d22 Jul 2026$41.152/2$20,575$20,17469%77%+$4,309-$20,96841.9%$-23,417 (vs do-nothing $-21,790)
$10555d15 Jul 2026$28.052/2$33,660$33,25969%77%+$9,990-$28,58857.2%$-31,037 (vs do-nothing $-29,410)
$10657d17 Jul 2026$35.952/2$30,814$30,41369%77%+$9,293-$25,00850.0%$-27,457 (vs do-nothing $-25,830)
$109521d31 Jul 2026$59.452/2$16,986$16,58569%76%+$3,760-$14,30828.6%$-16,757 (vs do-nothing $-15,130)
$107010d20 Jul 2026$36.552/2$21,930$21,52969%76%+$4,753-$23,88847.8%$-26,337 (vs do-nothing $-24,710)
$108014d24 Jul 2026$48.102/2$20,614$20,21369%76%+$4,797-$19,57839.2%$-22,027 (vs do-nothing $-20,400)
$107512d22 Jul 2026$42.852/2$21,425$21,02468%76%+$4,430-$21,62843.3%$-24,077 (vs do-nothing $-22,450)
$109021d31 Jul 2026$60.252/2$17,214$16,81368%76%+$3,557-$15,14830.3%$-17,597 (vs do-nothing $-15,970)
$10505d15 Jul 2026$29.751/2$17,850$20,47968%76%+$5,593-$14,62429.2%$-16,662 (vs do-nothing $-15,035)
$10607d17 Jul 2026$37.602/2$32,229$31,82868%76%+$9,435-$25,67851.4%$-28,127 (vs do-nothing $-26,500)
$106510d20 Jul 2026$38.052/2$22,830$22,42968%76%+$4,757-$24,58849.2%$-27,037 (vs do-nothing $-25,410)
$107514d24 Jul 2026$50.452/2$21,621$21,22068%76%+$5,147-$20,10840.2%$-22,557 (vs do-nothing $-20,930)
$108521d31 Jul 2026$63.302/2$18,086$17,68567%76%+$3,985-$15,53831.1%$-17,987 (vs do-nothing $-16,360)
$107012d22 Jul 2026$43.352/2$21,675$21,27467%75%+$3,926-$22,52845.1%$-24,977 (vs do-nothing $-23,350)
$107014d24 Jul 2026$51.352/2$22,007$21,60667%75%+$4,853-$20,92841.9%$-23,377 (vs do-nothing $-21,750)
$106512d22 Jul 2026$45.352/2$22,675$22,27467%75%+$4,921-$23,12846.3%$-25,577 (vs do-nothing $-23,950)
$108021d31 Jul 2026$64.052/2$18,300$17,89967%75%+$3,743-$16,38832.8%$-18,837 (vs do-nothing $-17,210)
$106010d20 Jul 2026$40.352/2$24,210$23,80967%75%+$5,201-$25,12850.3%$-27,577 (vs do-nothing $-25,950)
$10557d17 Jul 2026$39.252/2$33,643$33,24267%75%+$9,517-$26,34852.7%$-28,797 (vs do-nothing $-27,170)
$10455d15 Jul 2026$31.401/2$18,840$21,46966%75%+$5,646-$14,95929.9%$-16,997 (vs do-nothing $-15,370)
$107521d31 Jul 2026$65.952/2$18,843$18,44266%75%+$3,818-$17,00834.0%$-19,457 (vs do-nothing $-17,830)
$106514d24 Jul 2026$53.502/2$22,929$22,52866%75%+$5,072-$21,49843.0%$-23,947 (vs do-nothing $-22,320)
$105510d20 Jul 2026$41.302/2$24,780$24,37966%75%+$4,797-$25,93851.9%$-28,387 (vs do-nothing $-26,760)
$106012d22 Jul 2026$47.352/2$23,675$23,27466%74%+$4,336-$23,72847.5%$-26,177 (vs do-nothing $-24,550)
$10507d17 Jul 2026$40.951/2$17,550$20,17965%75%+$4,790-$13,50427.0%$-15,542 (vs do-nothing $-13,915)
$107021d31 Jul 2026$67.702/2$19,343$18,94265%75%+$3,838-$17,65835.3%$-20,107 (vs do-nothing $-18,480)
$106014d24 Jul 2026$55.552/2$23,807$23,40665%74%+$5,225-$22,08844.2%$-24,537 (vs do-nothing $-22,910)
$10405d15 Jul 2026$33.051/2$19,830$22,45965%75%+$5,643-$15,29430.6%$-17,332 (vs do-nothing $-15,705)
$105512d22 Jul 2026$48.752/2$24,375$23,97465%74%+$4,201-$24,44848.9%$-26,897 (vs do-nothing $-25,270)
$106521d31 Jul 2026$69.852/2$19,957$19,55665%74%+$3,958-$18,22836.5%$-20,677 (vs do-nothing $-19,050)
$105010d20 Jul 2026$43.502/2$26,100$25,69965%74%+$5,103-$26,49853.0%$-28,947 (vs do-nothing $-27,320)
$10457d17 Jul 2026$41.801/2$17,914$20,54364%74%+$4,426-$13,91927.8%$-15,957 (vs do-nothing $-14,330)
$105514d24 Jul 2026$57.052/2$24,450$24,04964%74%+$5,118-$22,78845.6%$-25,237 (vs do-nothing $-23,610)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 03:38