FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $996.00

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1279.52 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-10 09:43 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $996.00 UNDERWATER $224.00 (18.4% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1279.52 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$33,750/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$429/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-61,080	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$16,875/mo

HEDGE COVER
$429/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$33,750/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1279.52 (probe: $1280C 14d) brings only $4,821/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$58,631

was $61,080 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,604

CC-SS ratchet

$1,291.36 → $1,279.52

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$23.02	$4,604	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 79 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 32 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,222.38 (+23%) · daily UBB $1,218.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$140 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1115 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($16,875/mo); it brings $17,571/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1040/7d for $34,714/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1330/7d (98% survival, $1,089/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $28,804 (58% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-61,275 and cuts bleed by $429/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1115, 80% survival, $17,571/mo (E[net] $4,223/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $1115	80%	$17,571	$4,223

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $4,223/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1115 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $17,571/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1160 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 20% → 13%) for $6,257/mo less (36% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $996.00 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1330

17 Jul

33.5%

98%

$254

$1,089

-$16,483

Sell 1 × $1330 33.5% OTM over spot $996.00 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.67 mid)

= $254 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,089/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1330)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1332.67)

98%

EV / mo

+$806

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,796

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,631

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,434 @ 76% POP

69% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $83.18/sh now → $58.85 mid-life (likely $40.54–$82.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$56.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 74 simulated challenges: the $1,330 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $1,369 (overshoots $39.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,399	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$12.57/sh	+$1,257 cycle +$1,511 [+$831…+$3,083] · 84% credit	73% surv 64%	+$6,591 SAFE cap gain +$67,671
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,330	20 Jul 2026	6d left	-$0.95/sh	-$95 cycle +$159 [-$178…+$1,266] · 68% credit	67% surv 52%	-$2,130 NOT cap gain +$58,950
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,434	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$2.37/sh	+$237 cycle +$491 [-$426…+$1,944] · 66% credit	76% surv 69%	+$9,310 SAFE cap gain +$70,390

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,089/mo
vs 50% target ($16,875/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($33,750/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,820/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1330 is at/above CC-SS $1279.52: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-30,554

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $1,332.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,330)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,316.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,317-1,332.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,332.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,330.00 (2.4σ)	$254	$-2,035	+$59,045	+$10,534
+2.5%	$1,363.25 (2.6σ)	$-3,071	$-1,809	+$59,271	+$10,534
+5%	$1,396.50 (2.9σ)	$-6,396	$-1,583	+$59,497	+$10,534

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1279.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,631

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1330): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$5,232

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,680 (+$53,400 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,232, the opportunity cost of earning $1,089/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1190

17 Jul

19.5%

90%

20%

$1,940

$8,314

-$9,257

$15,964

Sell 2 × $1190 19.5% OTM over spot $996.00 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $10.15 mid)

= $1,940 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,314/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1190)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1200.15)

91%

EV / mo

+$4,424

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,909

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,590

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,334 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $74.43/sh now → $52.65 mid-life (likely $48.86–$81.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$42.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 453 simulated challenges: the $1,190 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,228 (overshoots $38.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,259	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.31/sh	+$2,862 cycle +$4,802 [+$1,006…+$4,327] · 85% credit	73% surv 65%	-$1,889 NOT cap gain +$59,191
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,190	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.44/sh	+$488 cycle +$2,428 [-$485…+$1,669] · 63% credit	67% surv 52%	-$18,533 NOT cap gain +$42,547
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,194	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.98/sh	+$195 cycle +$2,135 [-$834…+$1,324] · 55% credit	67% surv 54%	-$17,998 NOT cap gain +$43,082
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,299	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.68/sh	+$135 cycle +$2,075 [-$2,330…+$1,448] · 43% credit	76% surv 70%	+$3,656 SAFE cap gain +$64,736
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,334	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$8.63/sh	-$1,726 cycle +$214 [-$4,666…-$602] · 18% credit	79% surv 74%	+$9,033 SAFE cap gain +$70,113
budget: banked $1,940 debit $1,726 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$214 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,675/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,314/mo
vs 50% target ($16,875/mo)	-51%
vs normal income ($33,750/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,886/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1190 is $90 below CC-SS $1279.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,964
… as % of IC ($50,000)	31.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	8.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,170

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.42/sh (~25% of the $9.70 collected) or spot ≥ $1,200.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,178.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,178-1,200.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,200.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,190.00 (1.4σ)	$1,940	$-19,021	+$42,059	+$500
+2.5%	$1,219.75 (1.6σ)	$-4,010	$-18,819	+$42,262	-$5,450
+5%	$1,249.50 (1.8σ)	$-9,960	$-18,616	+$42,464	-$5,500

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1279.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,631

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1190): -$15,964

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,412 (+$42,668 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,500, the opportunity cost of earning $8,314/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $1160

17 Jul

16.5%

87%

27%

$2,640

$11,314

-$6,257

$21,264

Sell 2 × $1160 16.5% OTM over spot $996.00 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $13.72 mid)

= $2,640 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,314/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1160)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $1173.72)

89%

EV / mo

+$5,438

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,225

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

20%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,625

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,324 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $72.55/sh now → $51.32 mid-life (likely $48.16–$81.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$38.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 594 simulated challenges: the $1,160 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,199 (overshoots $38.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,229	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.52/sh	+$2,904 cycle +$5,544 [+$768…+$4,155] · 83% credit	73% surv 65%	-$7,351 NOT cap gain +$53,729
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,160	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.07/sh	+$613 cycle +$3,253 [-$461…+$1,634] · 61% credit	67% surv 52%	-$23,911 NOT cap gain +$37,169
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,164	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.60/sh	+$320 cycle +$2,960 [-$836…+$1,290] · 49% credit	67% surv 54%	-$23,378 NOT cap gain +$37,702
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,274	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$11 cycle +$2,651 [-$2,717…+$1,071] · 37% credit	77% surv 71%	-$939 NOT cap gain +$60,141
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,324	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$12.64/sh	-$2,529 cycle +$111 [-$5,868…-$1,712] · 12% credit	81% surv 77%	+$6,862 SAFE cap gain +$67,942
budget: banked $2,640 debit $2,529 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $12,893/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,314/mo
vs 50% target ($16,875/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($33,750/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,886/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1160 is $120 below CC-SS $1279.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,264
… as % of IC ($50,000)	42.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	10.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,185

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.30/sh (~25% of the $13.20 collected) or spot ≥ $1,173.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,148.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,148-1,173.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,173.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,160.00 (1.2σ)	$2,640	$-24,525	+$36,555	+$1,200
+2.5%	$1,189.00 (1.4σ)	$-3,160	$-24,328	+$36,752	-$4,600
+5%	$1,218.00 (1.6σ)	$-8,960	$-24,130	+$36,950	-$10,400
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.6σ)	$-9,360	$-24,117	+$36,963	-$10,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1279.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,631

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1160): -$21,264

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,712 (+$37,368 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,800, the opportunity cost of earning $11,314/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1115

17 Jul

11.9%

80%

32%

$4,100

$17,571

—

$28,804

Sell 2 × $1115 11.9% OTM over spot $996.00 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $21.48 mid)

= $4,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,571/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1115)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $1136.47)

84%

EV / mo

+$6,878

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.4-3.3] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,837

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,767

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,319 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $69.74/sh now → $49.33 mid-life (likely $50.76–$81.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$28.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 947 simulated challenges: the $1,115 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,152 (overshoots $36.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,184	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.73/sh	+$2,945 cycle +$7,045 [+$419…+$3,597] · 80% credit	74% surv 65%	-$15,156 NOT cap gain +$45,924
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,115	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.94/sh	+$788 cycle +$4,888 [-$611…+$1,429] · 55% credit	67% surv 52%	-$31,583 NOT cap gain +$29,497
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,119	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.47/sh	+$494 cycle +$4,594 [-$962…+$1,079] · 46% credit	68% surv 54%	-$31,050 NOT cap gain +$30,030
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,229	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.42/sh	+$84 cycle +$4,184 [-$2,987…+$465] · 30% credit	77% surv 71%	-$8,712 NOT cap gain +$52,368
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,319	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$19.88/sh	-$3,977 cycle +$123 [-$8,150…-$3,936] · 2% credit	84% surv 81%	+$5,840 SAFE cap gain +$66,920
budget: banked $4,100 debit $3,977 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$123 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $9,817/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$17,571/mo
vs 50% target ($16,875/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($33,750/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,143/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1115 is $165 below CC-SS $1279.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,804
… as % of IC ($50,000)	57.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	14.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,275

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.12/sh (~25% of the $20.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,136.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,103.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,104-1,136.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,136.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,115.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,100	$-32,371	+$28,709	+$2,660
+2.5%	$1,142.88 (1.0σ)	$-1,475	$-32,181	+$28,899	-$2,915
+5%	$1,170.75 (1.2σ)	$-7,050	$-31,992	+$29,088	-$8,490
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.6σ)	$-16,900	$-31,657	+$29,423	-$18,340

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1279.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,631

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1115): -$28,804

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,252 (+$29,828 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,340, the opportunity cost of earning $17,571/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $1040

17 Jul

4.4%

64%

75%

$8,100

$34,714

+$17,143

$39,804

Sell 2 × $1040 4.4% OTM over spot $996.00 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $41.80 mid)

= $8,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $34,714/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1040)

64%

Breach risk

36%

POP (stays ≤ $1081.80)

74%

EV / mo

+$8,128

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~11.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,917

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

57%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,103

Free roll-up

+$21/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,344 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $65.05/sh now → $46.02 mid-life (likely $59.98–$84.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $40.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,725 simulated challenges: the $1,040 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,074 (overshoots $34.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,109	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.79/sh	+$2,957 cycle +$11,057 [-$162…+$1,749] · 72% credit	74% surv 66%	-$26,654 NOT cap gain +$34,426
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,040	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.21/sh	+$1,043 cycle +$9,143 [-$696…+$346] · 37% credit	67% surv 53%	-$42,838 NOT cap gain +$18,242
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,049	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.76/sh	+$153 cycle +$8,253 [-$1,859…-$631] · 13% credit	68% surv 55%	-$41,867 NOT cap gain +$19,213
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,154	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.78/sh	+$155 cycle +$8,255 [-$3,642…-$1,273] · 11% credit	78% surv 72%	-$20,150 NOT cap gain +$40,930
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,344	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$30.50/sh	-$6,101 cycle +$1,999 [-$11,930…-$8,248]	91% surv 90%	+$12,885 SAFE cap gain +$73,965
budget: banked $8,100 debit $6,101 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,999 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,170/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$34,714/mo
vs 50% target ($16,875/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($33,750/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$34,286/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1040 is $240 below CC-SS $1279.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$39,804
… as % of IC ($50,000)	79.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	20.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,340

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.12/sh (~25% of the $40.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,081.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,040)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,029.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,030-1,081.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,081.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,040.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,100	$-43,881	+$17,199	+$6,660
+2.5%	$1,066.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,900	$-43,704	+$17,376	+$1,460
+5%	$1,092.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,300	$-43,527	+$17,553	-$3,740
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.6σ)	$-27,900	$-42,657	+$18,423	-$29,340

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1279.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,631

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1040): -$39,804

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,252 (+$18,828 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,340, the opportunity cost of earning $34,714/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (143 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 143 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$58,631 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,912

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1115	7d	17 Jul 2026	$20.50	2/2	$17,571	$17,143	80%	84%	+$6,878	-$28,804	57.6%	$-31,252 (vs do-nothing $-18,340)
$1110	7d	17 Jul 2026	$21.55	2/2	$18,471	$18,043	79%	83%	+$7,065	-$29,594	59.2%	$-32,042 (vs do-nothing $-19,130)
$1105	7d	17 Jul 2026	$22.60	2/2	$19,371	$18,943	79%	83%	+$7,211	-$30,384	60.8%	$-32,832 (vs do-nothing $-19,920)
$1100	7d	17 Jul 2026	$23.70	2/2	$20,314	$19,886	78%	82%	+$7,356	-$31,164	62.3%	$-33,612 (vs do-nothing $-20,700)
$1080	5d	15 Jul 2026	$18.85	2/2	$22,620	$22,191	78%	82%	+$8,632	-$36,134	72.3%	$-38,582 (vs do-nothing $-25,670)
$1095	7d	17 Jul 2026	$24.85	2/2	$21,300	$20,871	77%	81%	+$7,498	-$31,934	63.9%	$-34,382 (vs do-nothing $-21,470)
$1090	7d	17 Jul 2026	$25.25	2/2	$21,643	$21,214	76%	81%	+$6,950	-$32,854	65.7%	$-35,302 (vs do-nothing $-22,390)
$1070	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.25	2/2	$25,500	$25,071	75%	80%	+$9,014	-$37,654	75.3%	$-40,102 (vs do-nothing $-27,190)
$1085	7d	17 Jul 2026	$27.30	2/2	$23,400	$22,971	75%	80%	+$7,768	-$33,444	66.9%	$-35,892 (vs do-nothing $-22,980)
$1080	7d	17 Jul 2026	$28.60	2/2	$24,514	$24,086	74%	79%	+$7,892	-$34,184	68.4%	$-36,632 (vs do-nothing $-23,720)
$1095	12d	22 Jul 2026	$34.05	2/2	$17,025	$16,596	73%	79%	+$4,240	-$30,094	60.2%	$-32,542 (vs do-nothing $-19,630)
$1085	10d	20 Jul 2026	$28.35	2/2	$17,010	$16,581	73%	79%	+$3,187	-$33,234	66.5%	$-35,682 (vs do-nothing $-22,770)
$1075	7d	17 Jul 2026	$29.35	2/2	$25,157	$24,729	73%	79%	+$7,491	-$35,034	70.1%	$-37,482 (vs do-nothing $-24,570)

Show 130 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 130.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1100	14d	24 Jul 2026	$40.45	2/2	$17,336	$16,907	73%	78%	+$4,252	-$27,814	55.6%	$-30,262 (vs do-nothing $-17,350)
$1060	5d	15 Jul 2026	$23.10	2/2	$27,720	$27,291	72%	79%	+$8,380	-$39,284	78.6%	$-41,732 (vs do-nothing $-28,820)
$1090	12d	22 Jul 2026	$34.55	2/2	$17,275	$16,846	72%	78%	+$3,881	-$30,994	62.0%	$-33,442 (vs do-nothing $-20,530)
$1080	10d	20 Jul 2026	$29.95	2/2	$17,970	$17,541	72%	78%	+$3,396	-$33,914	67.8%	$-36,362 (vs do-nothing $-23,450)
$1095	14d	24 Jul 2026	$41.90	2/2	$17,957	$17,529	72%	78%	+$4,316	-$28,524	57.0%	$-30,972 (vs do-nothing $-18,060)
$1085	12d	22 Jul 2026	$35.00	2/2	$17,500	$17,071	72%	78%	+$3,472	-$31,904	63.8%	$-34,352 (vs do-nothing $-21,440)
$1070	7d	17 Jul 2026	$31.40	2/2	$26,914	$26,486	72%	78%	+$8,151	-$35,624	71.2%	$-38,072 (vs do-nothing $-25,160)
$1055	5d	15 Jul 2026	$15.15	2/2	$18,183	$17,754	71%	75%	$-2,728	-$41,873	83.7%	$-44,322 (vs do-nothing $-31,410)
$1075	10d	20 Jul 2026	$30.85	2/2	$18,510	$18,081	71%	77%	+$3,150	-$34,734	69.5%	$-37,182 (vs do-nothing $-24,270)
$1090	14d	24 Jul 2026	$43.50	2/2	$18,643	$18,214	71%	78%	+$4,424	-$29,204	58.4%	$-31,652 (vs do-nothing $-18,740)
$1080	12d	22 Jul 2026	$37.25	2/2	$18,625	$18,196	71%	77%	+$3,937	-$32,454	64.9%	$-34,902 (vs do-nothing $-21,990)
$1065	7d	17 Jul 2026	$32.85	2/2	$28,157	$27,729	70%	77%	+$8,240	-$36,334	72.7%	$-38,782 (vs do-nothing $-25,870)
$1085	14d	24 Jul 2026	$44.80	2/2	$19,200	$18,771	70%	77%	+$4,383	-$29,944	59.9%	$-32,392 (vs do-nothing $-19,480)
$1070	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.75	2/2	$19,650	$19,221	70%	77%	+$3,470	-$35,354	70.7%	$-37,802 (vs do-nothing $-24,890)
$1075	12d	22 Jul 2026	$38.95	2/2	$19,475	$19,046	70%	77%	+$4,100	-$33,114	66.2%	$-35,562 (vs do-nothing $-22,650)
$1050	5d	15 Jul 2026	$26.40	2/2	$31,680	$31,251	70%	77%	+$9,099	-$40,624	81.2%	$-43,072 (vs do-nothing $-30,160)
$1080	14d	24 Jul 2026	$46.35	2/2	$19,864	$19,436	69%	77%	+$4,428	-$30,634	61.3%	$-33,082 (vs do-nothing $-20,170)
$1060	7d	17 Jul 2026	$34.10	2/2	$29,229	$28,800	69%	77%	+$8,100	-$37,084	74.2%	$-39,532 (vs do-nothing $-26,620)
$1065	10d	20 Jul 2026	$34.40	2/2	$20,640	$20,211	69%	76%	+$3,603	-$36,024	72.0%	$-38,472 (vs do-nothing $-25,560)
$1070	12d	22 Jul 2026	$39.65	2/2	$19,825	$19,396	69%	76%	+$3,734	-$33,974	67.9%	$-36,422 (vs do-nothing $-23,510)
$1075	14d	24 Jul 2026	$47.80	2/2	$20,486	$20,057	69%	76%	+$4,409	-$31,344	62.7%	$-33,792 (vs do-nothing $-20,880)
$1085	21d	31 Jul 2026	$60.05	2/2	$17,157	$16,729	68%	76%	+$3,349	-$26,894	53.8%	$-29,342 (vs do-nothing $-16,430)
$1045	5d	15 Jul 2026	$27.55	2/2	$33,060	$32,631	68%	76%	+$8,705	-$41,394	82.8%	$-43,842 (vs do-nothing $-30,930)
$1055	7d	17 Jul 2026	$35.70	2/2	$30,600	$30,171	68%	76%	+$8,200	-$37,764	75.5%	$-40,212 (vs do-nothing $-27,300)
$1060	10d	20 Jul 2026	$35.60	2/2	$21,360	$20,931	68%	76%	+$3,430	-$36,784	73.6%	$-39,232 (vs do-nothing $-26,320)
$1065	12d	22 Jul 2026	$42.45	2/2	$21,225	$20,796	68%	76%	+$4,391	-$34,414	68.8%	$-36,862 (vs do-nothing $-23,950)
$1070	14d	24 Jul 2026	$49.30	2/2	$21,129	$20,700	68%	76%	+$4,390	-$32,044	64.1%	$-34,492 (vs do-nothing $-21,580)
$1080	21d	31 Jul 2026	$61.15	2/2	$17,471	$17,043	68%	75%	+$3,218	-$27,674	55.3%	$-30,122 (vs do-nothing $-17,210)
$1060	12d	22 Jul 2026	$42.95	2/2	$21,475	$21,046	67%	75%	+$3,867	-$35,314	70.6%	$-37,762 (vs do-nothing $-24,850)
$1050	7d	17 Jul 2026	$37.20	2/2	$31,886	$31,457	67%	75%	+$8,154	-$38,464	76.9%	$-40,912 (vs do-nothing $-28,000)
$1055	10d	20 Jul 2026	$37.25	2/2	$22,350	$21,921	67%	75%	+$3,489	-$37,454	74.9%	$-39,902 (vs do-nothing $-26,990)
$1075	21d	31 Jul 2026	$63.15	2/2	$18,043	$17,614	67%	75%	+$3,331	-$28,274	56.5%	$-30,722 (vs do-nothing $-17,810)
$1065	14d	24 Jul 2026	$51.05	2/2	$21,879	$21,450	67%	75%	+$4,456	-$32,694	65.4%	$-35,142 (vs do-nothing $-22,230)
$1040	5d	15 Jul 2026	$29.20	1/2	$17,520	$19,251	67%	75%	+$4,402	-$21,032	42.1%	$-28,712 (vs do-nothing $-15,800)
$1070	21d	31 Jul 2026	$65.00	2/2	$18,571	$18,143	66%	75%	+$3,390	-$28,904	57.8%	$-31,352 (vs do-nothing $-18,440)
$1055	12d	22 Jul 2026	$45.10	2/2	$22,550	$22,121	66%	75%	+$4,139	-$35,884	71.8%	$-38,332 (vs do-nothing $-25,420)
$1060	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.05	2/2	$22,736	$22,307	66%	75%	+$4,606	-$33,294	66.6%	$-35,742 (vs do-nothing $-22,830)
$1050	10d	20 Jul 2026	$40.10	2/2	$24,060	$23,631	66%	75%	+$4,229	-$37,884	75.8%	$-40,332 (vs do-nothing $-27,420)
$1045	7d	17 Jul 2026	$38.20	2/2	$32,743	$32,314	66%	75%	+$7,616	-$39,264	78.5%	$-41,712 (vs do-nothing $-28,800)
$1065	21d	31 Jul 2026	$66.75	2/2	$19,071	$18,643	65%	74%	+$3,407	-$29,554	59.1%	$-32,002 (vs do-nothing $-19,090)
$1035	5d	15 Jul 2026	$19.45	2/2	$23,336	$22,907	65%	71%	$-4,891	-$45,014	90.0%	$-47,463 (vs do-nothing $-34,551)
$1055	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.85	2/2	$23,079	$22,650	65%	74%	+$4,219	-$34,134	68.3%	$-36,582 (vs do-nothing $-23,670)
$1050	12d	22 Jul 2026	$46.45	2/2	$23,225	$22,796	65%	74%	+$3,981	-$36,614	73.2%	$-39,062 (vs do-nothing $-26,150)
$1045	10d	20 Jul 2026	$42.90	2/2	$25,740	$25,311	65%	74%	+$4,900	-$38,324	76.6%	$-40,772 (vs do-nothing $-27,860)
$1060	21d	31 Jul 2026	$68.35	2/2	$19,529	$19,100	65%	74%	+$3,369	-$30,234	60.5%	$-32,682 (vs do-nothing $-19,770)
$1040	7d	17 Jul 2026	$40.50	1/2	$17,357	$19,089	64%	74%	+$4,064	-$19,902	39.8%	$-27,582 (vs do-nothing $-14,670)
$1050	14d	24 Jul 2026	$56.95	2/2	$24,407	$23,979	64%	74%	+$4,795	-$34,514	69.0%	$-36,962 (vs do-nothing $-24,050)
$1045	12d	22 Jul 2026	$48.30	2/2	$24,150	$23,721	64%	74%	+$4,041	-$37,244	74.5%	$-39,692 (vs do-nothing $-26,780)
$1055	21d	31 Jul 2026	$70.30	2/2	$20,086	$19,657	64%	74%	+$3,419	-$30,844	61.7%	$-33,292 (vs do-nothing $-20,380)
$1040	10d	20 Jul 2026	$42.65	2/2	$25,590	$25,161	64%	73%	+$3,700	-$39,374	78.7%	$-41,822 (vs do-nothing $-28,910)
$1030	5d	15 Jul 2026	$31.60	1/2	$18,960	$20,691	64%	73%	+$3,795	-$21,792	43.6%	$-29,472 (vs do-nothing $-16,560)
$1045	14d	24 Jul 2026	$58.15	2/2	$24,921	$24,493	63%	73%	+$4,532	-$35,274	70.5%	$-37,722 (vs do-nothing $-24,810)
$1050	21d	31 Jul 2026	$71.45	2/2	$20,414	$19,986	63%	73%	+$3,227	-$31,614	63.2%	$-34,062 (vs do-nothing $-21,150)
$1035	7d	17 Jul 2026	$42.75	1/2	$18,321	$20,053	63%	73%	+$4,266	-$20,177	40.4%	$-27,857 (vs do-nothing $-14,945)
$1040	12d	22 Jul 2026	$50.20	2/2	$25,100	$24,671	63%	73%	+$4,094	-$37,864	75.7%	$-40,312 (vs do-nothing $-27,400)
$1045	21d	31 Jul 2026	$74.05	2/2	$21,157	$20,729	63%	73%	+$3,436	-$32,094	64.2%	$-34,542 (vs do-nothing $-21,630)
$1035	10d	20 Jul 2026	$44.60	2/2	$26,760	$26,331	62%	73%	+$3,779	-$39,984	80.0%	$-42,432 (vs do-nothing $-29,520)
$1040	14d	24 Jul 2026	$59.95	2/2	$25,693	$25,264	62%	73%	+$4,503	-$35,914	71.8%	$-38,362 (vs do-nothing $-25,450)
$1035	12d	22 Jul 2026	$52.15	2/2	$26,075	$25,646	62%	73%	+$4,140	-$38,474	76.9%	$-40,922 (vs do-nothing $-28,010)
$1025	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.73	2/2	$26,072	$25,643	62%	69%	$-6,475	-$46,558	93.1%	$-49,007 (vs do-nothing $-36,095)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 09:43