FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $987.15

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1273.90 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-10 10:23 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $987.15 UNDERWATER $232.85 (19.1% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1273.90 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$35,079/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$429/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-61,080	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,539/mo

HEDGE COVER
$429/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$35,079/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1273.90 (probe: $1270C 14d) brings only $5,186/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$58,631

was $61,080 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,604

CC-SS ratchet

$1,282.51 → $1,273.90

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$23.02	$4,604	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 30 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,222.38 (+24%) · daily UBB $1,218.89 · 1-wk expected move ±$139 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1115 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($17,539/mo); it brings $17,571/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1035/7d for $36,643/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1320/7d (98% survival, $1,144/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $27,680 (55% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-61,275 and cuts bleed by $429/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1115, 82% survival, $17,571/mo (E[net] $4,237/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $1115	82%	$17,571	$4,237

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $4,237/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1115 (primary), 82% survival, breach 18%, $17,571/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1155 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 18% → 12%) for $5,657/mo less (32% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $987.15 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1320

17 Jul

33.7%

98%

$267

$1,144

-$16,427

Sell 1 × $1320 33.7% OTM over spot $987.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.91 mid)

= $267 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,144/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1320)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1322.91)

98%

EV / mo

+$881

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-3.0] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,637

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,040

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,433 @ 77% POP

70% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $89.16/sh now → $63.07 mid-life (likely $48.99–$86.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$60.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 67 simulated challenges: the $1,320 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,359 (overshoots $39.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,388	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$12.20/sh	+$1,220 cycle +$1,487 [+$540…+$2,320] · 85% credit	73% surv 64%	+$7,207 SAFE cap gain +$68,287
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,320	20 Jul 2026	6d left	-$1.58/sh	-$158 cycle +$109 [-$360…+$964] · 60% credit	68% surv 52%	-$1,418 NOT cap gain +$59,662
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,418	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.44/sh	+$144 cycle +$411 [-$718…+$1,236] · 55% credit	76% surv 68%	+$9,335 SAFE cap gain +$70,415
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,433	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.74/sh	-$174 cycle +$93 [-$1,119…+$914] · 46% credit	77% surv 70%	+$10,619 SAFE cap gain +$71,699
budget: banked $267 debit $174 (65% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$93 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $10,223/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,144/mo
vs 50% target ($17,539/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($35,079/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,876/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1320 is at/above CC-SS $1273.90: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-30,564

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.67 collected) or spot ≥ $1,322.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,320)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,306.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,307-1,322.91	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,322.91	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,320.00 (2.4σ)	$267	$-1,260	+$59,820	+$9,547
+2.5%	$1,353.00 (2.6σ)	$-3,033	$-1,035	+$60,045	+$9,547
+5%	$1,386.00 (2.9σ)	$-6,333	$-811	+$60,269	+$9,547

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1273.90, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,300

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1320): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$4,670

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,450 (+$54,630 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,670, the opportunity cost of earning $1,144/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1180

17 Jul

19.5%

90%

20%

$2,120

$9,086

-$8,486

$16,660

Sell 2 × $1180 19.5% OTM over spot $987.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $11.25 mid)

= $2,120 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,086/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1180)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1191.25)

91%

EV / mo

+$5,294

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,368

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,157

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,323 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $79.70/sh now → $56.38 mid-life (likely $51.54–$85.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$45.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 413 simulated challenges: the $1,180 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,219 (overshoots $38.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,248	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.17/sh	+$2,835 cycle +$4,955 [+$825…+$4,368] · 81% credit	74% surv 65%	-$2,212 NOT cap gain +$58,868
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,180	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.25/sh	+$449 cycle +$2,569 [-$529…+$1,717] · 61% credit	68% surv 52%	-$18,629 NOT cap gain +$42,451
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,183	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.88/sh	+$175 cycle +$2,295 [-$841…+$1,411] · 54% credit	69% surv 53%	-$18,314 NOT cap gain +$42,766
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,293	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.53/sh	+$106 cycle +$2,226 [-$2,485…+$1,502] · 39% credit	77% surv 71%	+$4,365 SAFE cap gain +$65,445
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,323	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$9.56/sh	-$1,911 cycle +$209 [-$4,972…-$628] · 17% credit	79% surv 74%	+$8,551 SAFE cap gain +$69,631
budget: banked $2,120 debit $1,911 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$209 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $15,609/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,086/mo
vs 50% target ($17,539/mo)	-48%
vs normal income ($35,079/mo)	26% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,657/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1180 is $94 below CC-SS $1273.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,660
… as % of IC ($50,000)	33.3%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	8.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,210

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.65/sh (~25% of the $10.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,191.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,168.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,168-1,191.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,191.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,180.00 (1.4σ)	$2,120	$-19,079	+$42,001	+$680
+2.5%	$1,209.50 (1.6σ)	$-3,780	$-18,878	+$42,202	-$5,220
+5%	$1,239.00 (1.8σ)	$-9,680	$-18,677	+$42,403	-$7,320

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1273.90, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,300

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1180): -$16,660

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,440 (+$42,640 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,320, the opportunity cost of earning $9,086/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $1155

17 Jul

17.0%

88%

26%

$2,780

$11,914

-$5,657

$21,000

Sell 2 × $1155 17.0% OTM over spot $987.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $14.45 mid)

= $2,780 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,914/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1155)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $1169.45)

89%

EV / mo

+$6,530

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.4-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,665

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,258

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,308 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $78.01/sh now → $55.19 mid-life (likely $49.39–$86.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$41.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 547 simulated challenges: the $1,155 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,191 (overshoots $36.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,223	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.39/sh	+$2,877 cycle +$5,657 [+$660…+$4,410] · 82% credit	74% surv 65%	-$6,680 NOT cap gain +$54,400
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,155	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.84/sh	+$568 cycle +$3,348 [-$449…+$1,860] · 66% credit	68% surv 52%	-$23,021 NOT cap gain +$38,059
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,158	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.47/sh	+$294 cycle +$3,074 [-$767…+$1,521] · 57% credit	69% surv 53%	-$22,705 NOT cap gain +$38,375
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,268	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.80/sh	+$160 cycle +$2,940 [-$2,597…+$1,573] · 44% credit	77% surv 71%	-$91 NOT cap gain +$60,989
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,308	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$11.96/sh	-$2,392 cycle +$388 [-$5,866…-$1,130] · 15% credit	80% surv 76%	+$5,628 SAFE cap gain +$66,708
budget: banked $2,780 debit $2,392 (86% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$388 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,409/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,914/mo
vs 50% target ($17,539/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($35,079/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,486/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1155 is $119 below CC-SS $1273.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,000
… as % of IC ($50,000)	42.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	10.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,190

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.48/sh (~25% of the $13.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,169.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,143.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,143-1,169.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,169.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,155.00 (1.2σ)	$2,780	$-23,589	+$37,491	+$1,340
+2.5%	$1,183.88 (1.4σ)	$-2,995	$-23,392	+$37,688	-$4,435
+5%	$1,212.75 (1.6σ)	$-8,770	$-23,196	+$37,884	-$10,210
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.7σ)	$-10,220	$-23,147	+$37,933	-$11,660

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1273.90, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,300

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1155): -$21,000

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,780 (+$38,300 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,660, the opportunity cost of earning $11,914/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1115

17 Jul

13.0%

82%

29%

$4,100

$17,571

—

$27,680

Sell 2 × $1115 13.0% OTM over spot $987.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $21.48 mid)

= $4,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,571/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1115)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $1136.47)

85%

EV / mo

+$8,283

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,050

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

29%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,556

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,308 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $75.31/sh now → $53.28 mid-life (likely $52.98–$86.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 876 simulated challenges: the $1,115 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,150 (overshoots $34.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,183	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.63/sh	+$2,927 cycle +$7,027 [+$380…+$3,760] · 79% credit	74% surv 65%	-$13,583 NOT cap gain +$47,497
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,115	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.73/sh	+$746 cycle +$4,846 [-$487…+$1,632] · 58% credit	68% surv 52%	-$29,795 NOT cap gain +$31,285
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,118	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.36/sh	+$472 cycle +$4,572 [-$814…+$1,328] · 49% credit	69% surv 53%	-$29,479 NOT cap gain +$31,601
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,228	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.15/sh	+$230 cycle +$4,330 [-$2,879…+$702] · 33% credit	78% surv 71%	-$6,974 NOT cap gain +$54,106
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,308	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$19.52/sh	-$3,903 cycle +$197 [-$8,108…-$3,659] · 3% credit	83% surv 80%	+$5,438 SAFE cap gain +$66,518
budget: banked $4,100 debit $3,903 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$197 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $11,254/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$17,571/mo
vs 50% target ($17,539/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($35,079/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,143/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1115 is $159 below CC-SS $1273.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,680
… as % of IC ($50,000)	55.4%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	14.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,275

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.12/sh (~25% of the $20.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,136.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,103.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,104-1,136.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,136.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,115.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,100	$-30,541	+$30,539	+$2,660
+2.5%	$1,142.88 (1.1σ)	$-1,475	$-30,351	+$30,729	-$2,915
+5%	$1,170.75 (1.3σ)	$-7,050	$-30,162	+$30,918	-$8,490
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.7σ)	$-16,900	$-29,827	+$31,253	-$18,340

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1273.90, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,300

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1115): -$27,680

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,460 (+$31,620 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,340, the opportunity cost of earning $17,571/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $1035

17 Jul

4.8%

66%

73%

$8,550

$36,643

+$19,071

$39,230

Sell 2 × $1035 4.8% OTM over spot $987.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $43.88 mid)

= $8,550 credit for the 7d cycle → $36,643/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1035)

66%

Breach risk

34%

POP (stays ≤ $1078.88)

75%

EV / mo

+$11,470

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~11.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,863

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

55%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,341

Free roll-up

+$18/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,328 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $69.91/sh now → $49.45 mid-life (likely $62.52–$90.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $42.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,647 simulated challenges: the $1,035 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,069 (overshoots $34.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,103	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.80/sh	+$2,961 cycle +$11,511 [-$419…+$1,835] · 69% credit	74% surv 65%	-$25,642 NOT cap gain +$35,438
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,035	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.29/sh	+$1,059 cycle +$9,609 [-$644…+$574] · 44% credit	68% surv 52%	-$41,576 NOT cap gain +$19,504
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,043	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.48/sh	+$296 cycle +$8,846 [-$1,560…-$285] · 19% credit	69% surv 55%	-$40,716 NOT cap gain +$20,364
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,148	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.55/sh	+$309 cycle +$8,859 [-$3,663…-$979] · 14% credit	78% surv 72%	-$18,988 NOT cap gain +$42,092
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,328	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$33.28/sh	-$6,656 cycle +$1,894 [-$13,087…-$8,691]	90% surv 89%	+$11,271 SAFE cap gain +$72,351
budget: banked $8,550 debit $6,656 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,894 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,392/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$36,643/mo
vs 50% target ($17,539/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($35,079/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$36,214/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1035 is $239 below CC-SS $1273.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$39,230
… as % of IC ($50,000)	78.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	19.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,305

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.69/sh (~25% of the $42.75 collected) or spot ≥ $1,078.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,035)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,024.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,025-1,078.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,078.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,035.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,550	$-42,635	+$18,445	+$7,110
+2.5%	$1,060.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,375	$-42,459	+$18,621	+$1,935
+5%	$1,086.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,800	$-42,283	+$18,797	-$3,240
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.7σ)	$-28,450	$-41,377	+$19,703	-$29,890

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1273.90, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,300

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1035): -$39,230

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,010 (+$20,070 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,890, the opportunity cost of earning $36,643/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (148 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 148 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$59,300 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,120

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1115	7d	17 Jul 2026	$20.50	2/2	$17,571	$17,143	82%	85%	+$8,283	-$27,680	55.4%	$-29,460 (vs do-nothing $-18,340)
$1110	7d	17 Jul 2026	$21.55	2/2	$18,471	$18,043	81%	85%	+$8,546	-$28,470	56.9%	$-30,250 (vs do-nothing $-19,130)
$1105	7d	17 Jul 2026	$22.60	2/2	$19,371	$18,943	80%	84%	+$8,769	-$29,260	58.5%	$-31,040 (vs do-nothing $-19,920)
$1080	5d	15 Jul 2026	$18.85	2/2	$22,620	$22,191	80%	84%	+$10,813	-$35,010	70.0%	$-36,790 (vs do-nothing $-25,670)
$1100	7d	17 Jul 2026	$23.70	2/2	$20,314	$19,886	79%	84%	+$8,995	-$30,040	60.1%	$-31,820 (vs do-nothing $-20,700)
$1095	7d	17 Jul 2026	$24.85	2/2	$21,300	$20,871	79%	83%	+$9,221	-$30,810	61.6%	$-32,590 (vs do-nothing $-21,470)
$1090	7d	17 Jul 2026	$25.25	2/2	$21,643	$21,214	78%	82%	+$8,760	-$31,730	63.5%	$-33,510 (vs do-nothing $-22,390)
$1070	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.25	2/2	$25,500	$25,071	78%	82%	+$11,497	-$36,530	73.1%	$-38,310 (vs do-nothing $-27,190)
$1085	7d	17 Jul 2026	$27.30	2/2	$23,400	$22,971	77%	82%	+$9,667	-$32,320	64.6%	$-34,100 (vs do-nothing $-22,980)
$1080	7d	17 Jul 2026	$28.60	2/2	$24,514	$24,086	76%	81%	+$9,884	-$33,060	66.1%	$-34,840 (vs do-nothing $-23,720)
$1060	5d	15 Jul 2026	$23.10	2/2	$27,720	$27,291	75%	81%	+$11,189	-$38,160	76.3%	$-39,940 (vs do-nothing $-28,820)
$1075	7d	17 Jul 2026	$29.35	2/2	$25,157	$24,729	75%	80%	+$9,579	-$33,910	67.8%	$-35,690 (vs do-nothing $-24,570)
$1080	10d	20 Jul 2026	$29.95	2/2	$17,970	$17,541	74%	80%	+$4,933	-$32,790	65.6%	$-34,570 (vs do-nothing $-23,450)

Show 135 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 135.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1055	5d	15 Jul 2026	$15.15	2/2	$18,183	$17,754	74%	78%	+$253	-$40,750	81.5%	$-42,530 (vs do-nothing $-31,410)
$1070	7d	17 Jul 2026	$31.40	2/2	$26,914	$26,486	74%	80%	+$10,336	-$34,500	69.0%	$-36,280 (vs do-nothing $-25,160)
$1095	14d	24 Jul 2026	$41.90	2/2	$17,957	$17,529	73%	79%	+$5,485	-$27,400	54.8%	$-29,180 (vs do-nothing $-18,060)
$1075	10d	20 Jul 2026	$30.85	2/2	$18,510	$18,081	73%	79%	+$4,750	-$33,610	67.2%	$-35,390 (vs do-nothing $-24,270)
$1065	7d	17 Jul 2026	$32.85	2/2	$28,157	$27,729	73%	79%	+$10,526	-$35,210	70.4%	$-36,990 (vs do-nothing $-25,870)
$1090	14d	24 Jul 2026	$43.50	2/2	$18,643	$18,214	72%	79%	+$5,630	-$28,080	56.2%	$-29,860 (vs do-nothing $-18,740)
$1080	12d	22 Jul 2026	$37.25	2/2	$18,625	$18,196	72%	79%	+$5,321	-$31,330	62.7%	$-33,110 (vs do-nothing $-21,990)
$1050	5d	15 Jul 2026	$26.40	2/2	$31,680	$31,251	72%	79%	+$12,257	-$39,500	79.0%	$-41,280 (vs do-nothing $-30,160)
$1085	14d	24 Jul 2026	$44.80	2/2	$19,200	$18,771	72%	78%	+$5,626	-$28,820	57.6%	$-30,600 (vs do-nothing $-19,480)
$1075	12d	22 Jul 2026	$38.95	2/2	$19,475	$19,046	71%	78%	+$5,531	-$31,990	64.0%	$-33,770 (vs do-nothing $-22,650)
$1060	7d	17 Jul 2026	$34.10	2/2	$29,229	$28,800	71%	79%	+$10,489	-$35,960	71.9%	$-37,740 (vs do-nothing $-26,620)
$1070	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.75	2/2	$19,650	$19,221	71%	78%	+$3,786	-$34,230	68.5%	$-36,010 (vs do-nothing $-24,890)
$1065	10d	20 Jul 2026	$34.40	2/2	$20,640	$20,211	71%	78%	+$5,332	-$34,900	69.8%	$-36,680 (vs do-nothing $-25,560)
$1080	14d	24 Jul 2026	$46.35	2/2	$19,864	$19,436	71%	78%	+$5,709	-$29,510	59.0%	$-31,290 (vs do-nothing $-20,170)
$1045	5d	15 Jul 2026	$27.55	2/2	$33,060	$32,631	71%	78%	+$12,046	-$40,270	80.5%	$-42,050 (vs do-nothing $-30,930)
$1070	12d	22 Jul 2026	$39.65	2/2	$19,825	$19,396	71%	78%	+$5,215	-$32,850	65.7%	$-34,630 (vs do-nothing $-23,510)
$1055	7d	17 Jul 2026	$35.70	2/2	$30,600	$30,171	70%	78%	+$10,695	-$36,640	73.3%	$-38,420 (vs do-nothing $-27,300)
$1075	14d	24 Jul 2026	$47.80	2/2	$20,486	$20,057	70%	77%	+$5,729	-$30,220	60.4%	$-32,000 (vs do-nothing $-20,880)
$1065	12d	22 Jul 2026	$42.45	2/2	$21,225	$20,796	70%	77%	+$5,922	-$33,290	66.6%	$-35,070 (vs do-nothing $-23,950)
$1040	5d	15 Jul 2026	$29.20	2/2	$35,040	$34,611	69%	78%	+$12,334	-$40,940	81.9%	$-42,720 (vs do-nothing $-31,600)
$1060	10d	20 Jul 2026	$35.60	2/2	$21,360	$20,931	69%	77%	+$3,852	-$35,660	71.3%	$-37,440 (vs do-nothing $-26,320)
$1070	14d	24 Jul 2026	$49.30	2/2	$21,129	$20,700	69%	77%	+$5,749	-$30,920	61.8%	$-32,700 (vs do-nothing $-21,580)
$1050	7d	17 Jul 2026	$37.20	2/2	$31,886	$31,457	69%	77%	+$10,756	-$37,340	74.7%	$-39,120 (vs do-nothing $-28,000)
$1055	10d	20 Jul 2026	$37.25	2/2	$22,350	$21,921	69%	77%	+$5,351	-$36,330	72.7%	$-38,110 (vs do-nothing $-26,990)
$1060	12d	22 Jul 2026	$42.95	2/2	$21,475	$21,046	69%	77%	+$5,450	-$34,190	68.4%	$-35,970 (vs do-nothing $-24,850)
$1065	14d	24 Jul 2026	$51.05	2/2	$21,879	$21,450	68%	77%	+$5,854	-$31,570	63.1%	$-33,350 (vs do-nothing $-22,230)
$1075	21d	31 Jul 2026	$63.15	2/2	$18,043	$17,614	68%	76%	+$4,310	-$27,150	54.3%	$-28,930 (vs do-nothing $-17,810)
$1045	7d	17 Jul 2026	$38.20	2/2	$32,743	$32,314	68%	77%	+$10,328	-$38,140	76.3%	$-39,920 (vs do-nothing $-28,800)
$1035	5d	15 Jul 2026	$19.45	2/2	$23,336	$22,907	68%	74%	$-1,168	-$43,891	87.8%	$-45,671 (vs do-nothing $-34,551)
$1050	10d	20 Jul 2026	$40.10	2/2	$24,060	$23,631	68%	76%	+$6,160	-$36,760	73.5%	$-38,540 (vs do-nothing $-27,420)
$1055	12d	22 Jul 2026	$45.10	2/2	$22,550	$22,121	68%	76%	+$5,774	-$34,760	69.5%	$-36,540 (vs do-nothing $-25,420)
$1060	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.05	2/2	$22,736	$22,307	68%	76%	+$6,045	-$32,170	64.3%	$-33,950 (vs do-nothing $-22,830)
$1070	21d	31 Jul 2026	$65.00	2/2	$18,571	$18,143	67%	76%	+$4,390	-$27,780	55.6%	$-29,560 (vs do-nothing $-18,440)
$1050	12d	22 Jul 2026	$46.45	2/2	$23,225	$22,796	67%	76%	+$5,668	-$35,490	71.0%	$-37,270 (vs do-nothing $-26,150)
$1065	21d	31 Jul 2026	$66.75	2/2	$19,071	$18,643	67%	76%	+$4,430	-$28,430	56.9%	$-30,210 (vs do-nothing $-19,090)
$1045	10d	20 Jul 2026	$42.90	2/2	$25,740	$25,311	67%	76%	+$6,901	-$37,200	74.4%	$-38,980 (vs do-nothing $-27,860)
$1040	7d	17 Jul 2026	$40.50	2/2	$34,714	$34,286	67%	76%	+$10,953	-$38,680	77.4%	$-40,460 (vs do-nothing $-29,340)
$1055	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.85	2/2	$23,079	$22,650	67%	76%	+$5,699	-$33,010	66.0%	$-34,790 (vs do-nothing $-23,670)
$1030	5d	15 Jul 2026	$31.60	1/2	$18,960	$20,691	66%	76%	+$5,755	-$21,230	42.5%	$-27,680 (vs do-nothing $-16,560)
$1060	21d	31 Jul 2026	$68.35	2/2	$19,529	$19,100	66%	75%	+$4,415	-$29,110	58.2%	$-30,890 (vs do-nothing $-19,770)
$1045	12d	22 Jul 2026	$48.30	2/2	$24,150	$23,721	66%	75%	+$5,782	-$36,120	72.2%	$-37,900 (vs do-nothing $-26,780)
$1050	14d	24 Jul 2026	$56.95	2/2	$24,407	$23,979	66%	75%	+$6,315	-$33,390	66.8%	$-35,170 (vs do-nothing $-24,050)
$1040	10d	20 Jul 2026	$42.65	2/2	$25,590	$25,161	66%	75%	+$5,773	-$38,250	76.5%	$-40,030 (vs do-nothing $-28,910)
$1035	7d	17 Jul 2026	$42.75	1/2	$18,321	$20,053	66%	75%	+$5,735	-$19,615	39.2%	$-26,065 (vs do-nothing $-14,945)
$1055	21d	31 Jul 2026	$70.30	2/2	$20,086	$19,657	65%	75%	+$4,487	-$29,720	59.4%	$-31,500 (vs do-nothing $-20,380)
$1045	14d	24 Jul 2026	$58.15	2/2	$24,921	$24,493	65%	75%	+$6,095	-$34,150	68.3%	$-35,930 (vs do-nothing $-24,810)
$1040	12d	22 Jul 2026	$50.20	2/2	$25,100	$24,671	65%	75%	+$5,890	-$36,740	73.5%	$-38,520 (vs do-nothing $-27,400)
$1025	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.73	2/2	$26,072	$25,643	65%	72%	$-2,355	-$45,435	90.9%	$-47,215 (vs do-nothing $-36,095)
$1050	21d	31 Jul 2026	$71.45	2/2	$20,414	$19,986	65%	74%	+$4,318	-$30,490	61.0%	$-32,270 (vs do-nothing $-21,150)
$1035	10d	20 Jul 2026	$44.60	2/2	$26,760	$26,331	65%	74%	+$5,924	-$38,860	77.7%	$-40,640 (vs do-nothing $-29,520)
$1030	7d	17 Jul 2026	$43.70	1/2	$18,729	$20,460	64%	75%	+$5,405	-$20,020	40.0%	$-26,470 (vs do-nothing $-15,350)
$1040	14d	24 Jul 2026	$59.95	2/2	$25,693	$25,264	64%	74%	+$6,108	-$34,790	69.6%	$-36,570 (vs do-nothing $-25,450)
$1045	21d	31 Jul 2026	$74.05	2/2	$21,157	$20,729	64%	74%	+$4,550	-$30,970	61.9%	$-32,750 (vs do-nothing $-21,630)
$1035	12d	22 Jul 2026	$52.15	2/2	$26,075	$25,646	64%	74%	+$5,991	-$37,350	74.7%	$-39,130 (vs do-nothing $-28,010)
$1030	10d	20 Jul 2026	$47.05	2/2	$28,230	$27,801	63%	74%	+$6,335	-$39,370	78.7%	$-41,150 (vs do-nothing $-30,030)
$1020	5d	15 Jul 2026	$34.25	1/2	$20,550	$22,281	63%	74%	+$5,271	-$21,965	43.9%	$-28,415 (vs do-nothing $-17,295)
$1035	14d	24 Jul 2026	$61.90	2/2	$26,529	$26,100	63%	74%	+$6,161	-$35,400	70.8%	$-37,180 (vs do-nothing $-26,060)
$1040	21d	31 Jul 2026	$75.30	2/2	$21,514	$21,086	63%	74%	+$4,384	-$31,720	63.4%	$-33,500 (vs do-nothing $-22,380)
$1025	7d	17 Jul 2026	$45.90	1/2	$19,671	$21,403	63%	74%	+$5,576	-$20,300	40.6%	$-26,750 (vs do-nothing $-15,630)
$1030	12d	22 Jul 2026	$54.15	2/2	$27,075	$26,646	63%	74%	+$6,084	-$37,950	75.9%	$-39,730 (vs do-nothing $-28,610)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 10:23