FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $991.11

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1277.82 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-10 10:41 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $991.11 UNDERWATER $228.89 (18.8% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1277.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$34,455/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$429/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-61,080	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,227/mo

HEDGE COVER
$429/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$34,455/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
5.7 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1277.82 (probe: $1280C 14d) brings only $4,821/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$58,631

was $61,080 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,604

CC-SS ratchet

$1,286.46 → $1,277.82

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$23.02	$4,604	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 79 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 31 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,222.38 (+23%) · daily UBB $1,218.78 · 1-wk expected move ±$140 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1115 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($17,227/mo); it brings $17,571/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1040/7d for $34,714/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1320/7d (98% survival, $1,144/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $28,463 (57% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-61,275 and cuts bleed by $429/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1115, 82% survival, $17,571/mo (E[net] $4,329/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $1115	82%	$17,571	$4,329

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $4,329/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1115 (primary), 82% survival, breach 18%, $17,571/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1155 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 18% → 13%) for $5,657/mo less (32% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $991.11 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1320

17 Jul

33.2%

98%

$267

$1,144

-$16,427

Sell 1 × $1320 33.2% OTM over spot $991.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.91 mid)

= $267 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,144/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1320)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1322.91)

98%

EV / mo

+$856

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,637

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,756

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,429 @ 76% POP

69% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $85.14/sh now → $60.23 mid-life (likely $44.57–$85.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$57.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 74 simulated challenges: the $1,320 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,358 (overshoots $37.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,389	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$12.81/sh	+$1,281 cycle +$1,548 [+$525…+$2,890] · 86% credit	73% surv 64%	+$6,561 SAFE cap gain +$67,641
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,320	20 Jul 2026	6d left	-$0.59/sh	-$59 cycle +$208 [-$205…+$1,270] · 65% credit	68% surv 52%	-$2,136 NOT cap gain +$58,944
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,429	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.94/sh	+$94 cycle +$361 [-$881…+$1,612] · 54% credit	76% surv 69%	+$9,646 SAFE cap gain +$70,726

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,144/mo
vs 50% target ($17,227/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($34,455/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,876/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1320 is at/above CC-SS $1277.82: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-30,564

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.67 collected) or spot ≥ $1,322.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,320)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,306.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,307-1,322.91	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,322.91	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,320.00 (2.4σ)	$267	$-2,078	+$59,002	+$9,547
+2.5%	$1,353.00 (2.6σ)	$-3,033	$-1,853	+$59,227	+$9,547
+5%	$1,386.00 (2.8σ)	$-6,333	$-1,629	+$59,451	+$9,547

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1277.82, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,292

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1320): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$5,062

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,850 (+$54,230 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,911 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,062, the opportunity cost of earning $1,144/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1185

17 Jul

19.6%

90%

20%

$2,020

$8,657

-$8,914

$16,543

Sell 2 × $1185 19.6% OTM over spot $991.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $10.75 mid)

= $2,020 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,657/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1185)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1195.75)

91%

EV / mo

+$4,851

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,796

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,794

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,334 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $76.43/sh now → $54.07 mid-life (likely $48.19–$81.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$43.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 395 simulated challenges: the $1,185 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,222 (overshoots $36.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,254	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.53/sh	+$2,907 cycle +$4,927 [+$1,043…+$4,520] · 88% credit	74% surv 65%	-$1,808 NOT cap gain +$59,272
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,185	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.89/sh	+$578 cycle +$2,598 [-$129…+$2,092] · 72% credit	68% surv 52%	-$18,384 NOT cap gain +$42,696
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,189	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.96/sh	+$192 cycle +$2,212 [-$568…+$1,574] · 58% credit	68% surv 53%	-$17,965 NOT cap gain +$43,115
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,294	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$2.88/sh	+$577 cycle +$2,597 [-$1,728…+$1,998] · 51% credit	77% surv 70%	+$4,134 SAFE cap gain +$65,214
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,334	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$10.06/sh	-$2,011 cycle +$9 [-$4,852…-$715] · 18% credit	80% surv 75%	+$9,818 SAFE cap gain +$70,898
budget: banked $2,020 debit $2,011 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,671/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,657/mo
vs 50% target ($17,227/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($34,455/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,229/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1185 is $93 below CC-SS $1277.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,543
… as % of IC ($50,000)	33.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	8.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,210

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.52/sh (~25% of the $10.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,195.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,173.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,173-1,195.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,195.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,185.00 (1.4σ)	$2,020	$-18,963	+$42,117	+$580
+2.5%	$1,214.62 (1.6σ)	$-3,905	$-18,761	+$42,319	-$5,345
+5%	$1,244.25 (1.8σ)	$-9,830	$-18,560	+$42,520	-$6,420

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1277.82, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,292

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1185): -$16,543

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,331 (+$42,749 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,911 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,420, the opportunity cost of earning $8,657/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $1155

17 Jul

16.5%

87%

27%

$2,780

$11,914

-$5,657

$21,783

Sell 2 × $1155 16.5% OTM over spot $991.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $14.45 mid)

= $2,780 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,914/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1155)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $1169.45)

89%

EV / mo

+$6,139

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.4-2.4] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,773

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

19%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,760

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,314 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $74.50/sh now → $52.70 mid-life (likely $48.50–$81.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$38.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 562 simulated challenges: the $1,155 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,192 (overshoots $36.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,224	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.75/sh	+$2,950 cycle +$5,730 [+$915…+$4,421] · 84% credit	74% surv 65%	-$7,209 NOT cap gain +$53,871
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,155	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.56/sh	+$712 cycle +$3,492 [-$180…+$1,870] · 71% credit	68% surv 52%	-$23,695 NOT cap gain +$37,385
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,159	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.63/sh	+$326 cycle +$3,106 [-$646…+$1,471] · 58% credit	68% surv 53%	-$23,275 NOT cap gain +$37,805
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,264	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$3.16/sh	+$632 cycle +$3,412 [-$1,882…+$1,916] · 49% credit	77% surv 70%	-$1,255 NOT cap gain +$59,825
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,314	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$11.97/sh	-$2,394 cycle +$386 [-$5,595…-$1,379] · 14% credit	81% surv 76%	+$6,059 SAFE cap gain +$67,139
budget: banked $2,780 debit $2,394 (86% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$386 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,576/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,914/mo
vs 50% target ($17,227/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($34,455/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,486/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1155 is $123 below CC-SS $1277.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,783
… as % of IC ($50,000)	43.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	11.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,190

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.48/sh (~25% of the $13.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,169.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,143.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,143-1,169.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,169.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,155.00 (1.2σ)	$2,780	$-24,407	+$36,673	+$1,340
+2.5%	$1,183.88 (1.4σ)	$-2,995	$-24,210	+$36,870	-$4,435
+5%	$1,212.75 (1.6σ)	$-8,770	$-24,014	+$37,066	-$10,210
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.6σ)	$-10,220	$-23,965	+$37,115	-$11,660

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1277.82, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,292

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1155): -$21,783

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,571 (+$37,509 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,911 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,660, the opportunity cost of earning $11,914/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1115

17 Jul

12.5%

82%

30%

$4,100

$17,571

—

$28,463

Sell 2 × $1115 12.5% OTM over spot $991.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $21.48 mid)

= $4,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,571/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1115)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $1136.47)

85%

EV / mo

+$8,252

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.4-3.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,977

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,075

Free roll-up

+$21/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,314 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $71.92/sh now → $50.87 mid-life (likely $51.48–$83.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$30.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 911 simulated challenges: the $1,115 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,151 (overshoots $35.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,184	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.95/sh	+$2,990 cycle +$7,090 [+$501…+$3,736] · 80% credit	74% surv 65%	-$14,121 NOT cap gain +$46,959
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,115	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.39/sh	+$878 cycle +$4,978 [-$283…+$1,735] · 63% credit	68% surv 52%	-$30,481 NOT cap gain +$30,599
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,224	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$3.44/sh	+$688 cycle +$4,788 [-$2,294…+$1,203] · 39% credit	77% surv 71%	-$8,151 NOT cap gain +$52,929
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,124	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.61/sh	+$123 cycle +$4,223 [-$1,205…+$833] · 38% credit	69% surv 55%	-$29,397 NOT cap gain +$31,683
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,314	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$19.73/sh	-$3,946 cycle +$154 [-$8,110…-$3,832] · 3% credit	84% surv 81%	+$5,827 SAFE cap gain +$66,907
budget: banked $4,100 debit $3,946 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$154 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,381/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$17,571/mo
vs 50% target ($17,227/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($34,455/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,143/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1115 is $163 below CC-SS $1277.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,463
… as % of IC ($50,000)	56.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	14.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,275

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.12/sh (~25% of the $20.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,136.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,103.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,104-1,136.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,136.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,115.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,100	$-31,359	+$29,721	+$2,660
+2.5%	$1,142.88 (1.1σ)	$-1,475	$-31,169	+$29,911	-$2,915
+5%	$1,170.75 (1.3σ)	$-7,050	$-30,979	+$30,101	-$8,490
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.6σ)	$-16,900	$-30,645	+$30,435	-$18,340

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1277.82, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,292

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1115): -$28,463

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,251 (+$30,829 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,911 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,340, the opportunity cost of earning $17,571/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $1040

17 Jul

4.9%

66%

72%

$8,100

$34,714

+$17,143

$39,463

Sell 2 × $1040 4.9% OTM over spot $991.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $41.80 mid)

= $8,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $34,714/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1040)

66%

Breach risk

34%

POP (stays ≤ $1081.80)

75%

EV / mo

+$9,716

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~10.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,012

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

55%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,391

Free roll-up

+$21/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,349 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $67.08/sh now → $47.45 mid-life (likely $60.67–$86.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $40.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,660 simulated challenges: the $1,040 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,074 (overshoots $34.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,109	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$15.04/sh	+$3,008 cycle +$11,108 [-$152…+$1,851] · 73% credit	74% surv 66%	-$25,613 NOT cap gain +$35,467
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,040	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.76/sh	+$1,152 cycle +$9,252 [-$388…+$676] · 54% credit	68% surv 52%	-$41,717 NOT cap gain +$19,363
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,049	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.99/sh	+$397 cycle +$8,497 [-$1,300…-$223] · 21% credit	69% surv 55%	-$40,632 NOT cap gain +$20,448
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,154	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.35/sh	+$69 cycle +$8,169 [-$3,785…-$1,289] · 12% credit	78% surv 72%	-$19,246 NOT cap gain +$41,834
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,349	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$31.89/sh	-$6,378 cycle +$1,722 [-$12,347…-$8,424]	91% surv 90%	+$14,633 SAFE cap gain +$75,713
budget: banked $8,100 debit $6,378 (79% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,722 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,187/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$34,714/mo
vs 50% target ($17,227/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($34,455/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$34,286/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1040 is $238 below CC-SS $1277.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$39,463
… as % of IC ($50,000)	78.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	19.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-61,340

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.12/sh (~25% of the $40.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,081.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,040)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,029.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,030-1,081.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,081.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,040.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,100	$-42,869	+$18,211	+$6,660
+2.5%	$1,066.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,900	$-42,692	+$18,388	+$1,460
+5%	$1,092.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,300	$-42,515	+$18,565	-$3,740
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.6σ)	$-27,900	$-41,645	+$19,435	-$29,340

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1277.82, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,080

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,292

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1040): -$39,463

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,251 (+$19,829 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,911 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,340, the opportunity cost of earning $34,714/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (146 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 146 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$59,292 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,911

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1115	7d	17 Jul 2026	$20.50	2/2	$17,571	$17,143	82%	85%	+$8,252	-$28,463	56.9%	$-30,251 (vs do-nothing $-18,340)
$1110	7d	17 Jul 2026	$21.55	2/2	$18,471	$18,043	81%	84%	+$8,496	-$29,253	58.5%	$-31,041 (vs do-nothing $-19,130)
$1105	7d	17 Jul 2026	$22.60	2/2	$19,371	$18,943	80%	84%	+$8,701	-$30,043	60.1%	$-31,831 (vs do-nothing $-19,920)
$1100	7d	17 Jul 2026	$23.70	2/2	$20,314	$19,886	79%	83%	+$8,908	-$30,823	61.6%	$-32,611 (vs do-nothing $-20,700)
$1080	5d	15 Jul 2026	$18.85	2/2	$22,620	$22,191	79%	83%	+$9,872	-$35,793	71.6%	$-37,581 (vs do-nothing $-25,670)
$1095	7d	17 Jul 2026	$24.85	2/2	$21,300	$20,871	78%	83%	+$9,115	-$31,593	63.2%	$-33,381 (vs do-nothing $-21,470)
$1090	7d	17 Jul 2026	$25.25	2/2	$21,643	$21,214	77%	82%	+$8,637	-$32,513	65.0%	$-34,301 (vs do-nothing $-22,390)
$1070	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.25	2/2	$25,500	$25,071	76%	82%	+$10,424	-$37,313	74.6%	$-39,101 (vs do-nothing $-27,190)
$1085	7d	17 Jul 2026	$27.30	2/2	$23,400	$22,971	76%	81%	+$8,840	-$33,103	66.2%	$-34,891 (vs do-nothing $-22,980)
$1080	7d	17 Jul 2026	$28.60	2/2	$24,514	$24,086	75%	80%	+$9,016	-$33,843	67.7%	$-35,631 (vs do-nothing $-23,720)
$1060	5d	15 Jul 2026	$23.10	2/2	$27,720	$27,291	74%	80%	+$9,972	-$38,943	77.9%	$-40,731 (vs do-nothing $-28,820)
$1075	7d	17 Jul 2026	$29.35	2/2	$25,157	$24,729	74%	80%	+$8,669	-$34,693	69.4%	$-36,481 (vs do-nothing $-24,570)
$1090	12d	22 Jul 2026	$34.55	2/2	$17,275	$16,846	73%	79%	+$4,606	-$30,653	61.3%	$-32,441 (vs do-nothing $-20,530)

Show 133 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 133.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1100	14d	24 Jul 2026	$40.45	2/2	$17,336	$16,907	73%	79%	+$4,887	-$27,473	54.9%	$-29,261 (vs do-nothing $-17,350)
$1080	10d	20 Jul 2026	$29.95	2/2	$17,970	$17,541	73%	79%	+$4,261	-$33,573	67.1%	$-35,361 (vs do-nothing $-23,450)
$1070	7d	17 Jul 2026	$31.40	2/2	$26,914	$26,486	73%	79%	+$9,383	-$35,283	70.6%	$-37,071 (vs do-nothing $-25,160)
$1095	14d	24 Jul 2026	$41.90	2/2	$17,957	$17,529	73%	79%	+$4,971	-$28,183	56.4%	$-29,971 (vs do-nothing $-18,060)
$1055	5d	15 Jul 2026	$15.15	2/2	$18,183	$17,754	72%	77%	$-1,039	-$41,533	83.1%	$-43,321 (vs do-nothing $-31,410)
$1085	12d	22 Jul 2026	$35.00	2/2	$17,500	$17,071	72%	79%	+$4,223	-$31,563	63.1%	$-33,351 (vs do-nothing $-21,440)
$1075	10d	20 Jul 2026	$30.85	2/2	$18,510	$18,081	72%	78%	+$4,050	-$34,393	68.8%	$-36,181 (vs do-nothing $-24,270)
$1090	14d	24 Jul 2026	$43.50	2/2	$18,643	$18,214	72%	78%	+$5,100	-$28,863	57.7%	$-30,651 (vs do-nothing $-18,740)
$1080	12d	22 Jul 2026	$37.25	2/2	$18,625	$18,196	72%	78%	+$4,714	-$32,113	64.2%	$-33,901 (vs do-nothing $-21,990)
$1065	7d	17 Jul 2026	$32.85	2/2	$28,157	$27,729	72%	78%	+$9,528	-$35,993	72.0%	$-37,781 (vs do-nothing $-25,870)
$1050	5d	15 Jul 2026	$26.40	2/2	$31,680	$31,251	71%	78%	+$10,887	-$40,283	80.6%	$-42,071 (vs do-nothing $-30,160)
$1070	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.75	2/2	$19,650	$19,221	71%	78%	+$4,405	-$35,013	70.0%	$-36,801 (vs do-nothing $-24,890)
$1085	14d	24 Jul 2026	$44.80	2/2	$19,200	$18,771	71%	78%	+$5,079	-$29,603	59.2%	$-31,391 (vs do-nothing $-19,480)
$1075	12d	22 Jul 2026	$38.95	2/2	$19,475	$19,046	71%	78%	+$4,903	-$32,773	65.5%	$-34,561 (vs do-nothing $-22,650)
$1060	7d	17 Jul 2026	$34.10	2/2	$29,229	$28,800	70%	78%	+$9,445	-$36,743	73.5%	$-38,531 (vs do-nothing $-26,620)
$1080	14d	24 Jul 2026	$46.35	2/2	$19,864	$19,436	70%	77%	+$5,146	-$30,293	60.6%	$-32,081 (vs do-nothing $-20,170)
$1065	10d	20 Jul 2026	$34.40	2/2	$20,640	$20,211	70%	77%	+$4,575	-$35,683	71.4%	$-37,471 (vs do-nothing $-25,560)
$1070	12d	22 Jul 2026	$39.65	2/2	$19,825	$19,396	70%	77%	+$4,565	-$33,633	67.3%	$-35,421 (vs do-nothing $-23,510)
$1045	5d	15 Jul 2026	$27.55	2/2	$33,060	$32,631	70%	77%	+$10,595	-$41,053	82.1%	$-42,841 (vs do-nothing $-30,930)
$1075	14d	24 Jul 2026	$47.80	2/2	$20,486	$20,057	69%	77%	+$5,148	-$31,003	62.0%	$-32,791 (vs do-nothing $-20,880)
$1055	7d	17 Jul 2026	$35.70	2/2	$30,600	$30,171	69%	77%	+$9,604	-$37,423	74.8%	$-39,211 (vs do-nothing $-27,300)
$1060	10d	20 Jul 2026	$35.60	2/2	$21,360	$20,931	69%	77%	+$4,438	-$36,443	72.9%	$-38,231 (vs do-nothing $-26,320)
$1065	12d	22 Jul 2026	$42.45	2/2	$21,225	$20,796	69%	77%	+$5,249	-$34,073	68.1%	$-35,861 (vs do-nothing $-23,950)
$1070	14d	24 Jul 2026	$49.30	2/2	$21,129	$20,700	69%	76%	+$5,151	-$31,703	63.4%	$-33,491 (vs do-nothing $-21,580)
$1080	21d	31 Jul 2026	$61.15	2/2	$17,471	$17,043	68%	76%	+$3,752	-$27,333	54.7%	$-29,121 (vs do-nothing $-17,210)
$1040	5d	15 Jul 2026	$29.20	1/2	$17,520	$19,251	68%	77%	+$5,400	-$20,862	41.7%	$-27,711 (vs do-nothing $-15,800)
$1050	7d	17 Jul 2026	$37.20	2/2	$31,886	$31,457	68%	76%	+$9,618	-$38,123	76.2%	$-39,911 (vs do-nothing $-28,000)
$1055	10d	20 Jul 2026	$37.25	2/2	$22,350	$21,921	68%	76%	+$4,535	-$37,113	74.2%	$-38,901 (vs do-nothing $-26,990)
$1060	12d	22 Jul 2026	$42.95	2/2	$21,475	$21,046	68%	76%	+$4,755	-$34,973	69.9%	$-36,761 (vs do-nothing $-24,850)
$1065	14d	24 Jul 2026	$51.05	2/2	$21,879	$21,450	68%	76%	+$5,238	-$32,353	64.7%	$-34,141 (vs do-nothing $-22,230)
$1075	21d	31 Jul 2026	$63.15	2/2	$18,043	$17,614	68%	76%	+$3,878	-$27,933	55.9%	$-29,721 (vs do-nothing $-17,810)
$1055	12d	22 Jul 2026	$45.10	2/2	$22,550	$22,121	67%	76%	+$5,056	-$35,543	71.1%	$-37,331 (vs do-nothing $-25,420)
$1050	10d	20 Jul 2026	$40.10	2/2	$24,060	$23,631	67%	75%	+$5,313	-$37,543	75.1%	$-39,331 (vs do-nothing $-27,420)
$1045	7d	17 Jul 2026	$38.20	2/2	$32,743	$32,314	67%	76%	+$9,141	-$38,923	77.8%	$-40,711 (vs do-nothing $-28,800)
$1070	21d	31 Jul 2026	$65.00	2/2	$18,571	$18,143	67%	75%	+$3,948	-$28,563	57.1%	$-30,351 (vs do-nothing $-18,440)
$1060	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.05	2/2	$22,736	$22,307	67%	75%	+$5,411	-$32,953	65.9%	$-34,741 (vs do-nothing $-22,830)
$1035	5d	15 Jul 2026	$19.45	2/2	$23,336	$22,907	67%	73%	$-2,788	-$44,674	89.3%	$-46,462 (vs do-nothing $-34,551)
$1065	21d	31 Jul 2026	$66.75	2/2	$19,071	$18,643	66%	75%	+$3,978	-$29,213	58.4%	$-31,001 (vs do-nothing $-19,090)
$1050	12d	22 Jul 2026	$46.45	2/2	$23,225	$22,796	66%	75%	+$4,926	-$36,273	72.5%	$-38,061 (vs do-nothing $-26,150)
$1055	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.85	2/2	$23,079	$22,650	66%	75%	+$5,047	-$33,793	67.6%	$-35,581 (vs do-nothing $-23,670)
$1045	10d	20 Jul 2026	$42.90	2/2	$25,740	$25,311	66%	75%	+$6,023	-$37,983	76.0%	$-39,771 (vs do-nothing $-27,860)
$1040	7d	17 Jul 2026	$40.50	1/2	$17,357	$19,089	66%	75%	+$4,858	-$19,732	39.5%	$-26,581 (vs do-nothing $-14,670)
$1060	21d	31 Jul 2026	$68.35	2/2	$19,529	$19,100	65%	75%	+$3,953	-$29,893	59.8%	$-31,681 (vs do-nothing $-19,770)
$1030	5d	15 Jul 2026	$31.60	1/2	$18,960	$20,691	65%	75%	+$4,902	-$21,622	43.2%	$-28,471 (vs do-nothing $-16,560)
$1050	14d	24 Jul 2026	$56.95	2/2	$24,407	$23,979	65%	74%	+$5,645	-$34,173	68.3%	$-35,961 (vs do-nothing $-24,050)
$1045	12d	22 Jul 2026	$48.30	2/2	$24,150	$23,721	65%	75%	+$5,016	-$36,903	73.8%	$-38,691 (vs do-nothing $-26,780)
$1055	21d	31 Jul 2026	$70.30	2/2	$20,086	$19,657	65%	74%	+$4,015	-$30,503	61.0%	$-32,291 (vs do-nothing $-20,380)
$1035	7d	17 Jul 2026	$42.75	1/2	$18,321	$20,053	64%	74%	+$5,092	-$20,007	40.0%	$-26,856 (vs do-nothing $-14,945)
$1040	10d	20 Jul 2026	$42.65	2/2	$25,590	$25,161	64%	74%	+$3,481	-$39,033	78.1%	$-40,821 (vs do-nothing $-28,910)
$1045	14d	24 Jul 2026	$58.15	2/2	$24,921	$24,493	64%	74%	+$5,406	-$34,933	69.9%	$-36,721 (vs do-nothing $-24,810)
$1040	12d	22 Jul 2026	$50.20	2/2	$25,100	$24,671	64%	74%	+$5,100	-$37,523	75.0%	$-39,311 (vs do-nothing $-27,400)
$1050	21d	31 Jul 2026	$71.45	2/2	$20,414	$19,986	64%	74%	+$3,836	-$31,273	62.5%	$-33,061 (vs do-nothing $-21,150)
$1025	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.73	2/2	$26,072	$25,643	64%	70%	$-4,151	-$46,218	92.4%	$-48,006 (vs do-nothing $-36,095)
$1035	10d	20 Jul 2026	$44.60	2/2	$26,760	$26,331	63%	73%	+$3,607	-$39,643	79.3%	$-41,431 (vs do-nothing $-29,520)
$1040	14d	24 Jul 2026	$59.95	2/2	$25,693	$25,264	63%	74%	+$5,400	-$35,573	71.1%	$-37,361 (vs do-nothing $-25,450)
$1045	21d	31 Jul 2026	$74.05	2/2	$21,157	$20,729	63%	74%	+$4,058	-$31,753	63.5%	$-33,541 (vs do-nothing $-21,630)
$1030	7d	17 Jul 2026	$43.70	1/2	$18,729	$20,460	63%	74%	+$4,735	-$20,412	40.8%	$-27,261 (vs do-nothing $-15,350)
$1035	12d	22 Jul 2026	$52.15	2/2	$26,075	$25,646	63%	73%	+$5,176	-$38,133	76.3%	$-39,921 (vs do-nothing $-28,010)
$1040	21d	31 Jul 2026	$75.30	2/2	$21,514	$21,086	63%	73%	+$3,881	-$32,503	65.0%	$-34,291 (vs do-nothing $-22,380)
$1035	14d	24 Jul 2026	$61.90	2/2	$26,529	$26,100	62%	73%	+$5,434	-$36,183	72.4%	$-37,971 (vs do-nothing $-26,060)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 10:41