FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $968.92

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1230.94 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | 2026-07-10 22:04 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $968.92 UNDERWATER $251.08 (20.6% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1230.94 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$31,650/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$398/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-55,985	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,825/mo

HEDGE COVER
$398/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$31,650/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
6.3 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1230.94 (probe: $1230C 14d) brings only $4,650/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$53,536

was $55,985 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,604

CC-SS ratchet

$1,239.38 → $1,230.94

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$23.02	$4,604	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 77 (live) · RSI 68 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 26 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,219.06 (+26%) · daily UBB $1,220.43 · 1-wk expected move ±$132 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1070 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($15,825/mo); it brings $16,329/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1005/7d for $31,929/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1275/7d (97% survival, $733/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $28,379 (57% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-56,220 and cuts bleed by $398/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1070, 79% survival, $16,329/mo (E[net] $3,898/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $1070	79%	$16,329	$3,898

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $3,898/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1070 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $16,329/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1110 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $5,871/mo less (36% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1110 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $968.92 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1275

17 Jul

31.6%

97%

$171

$733

-$15,596

Sell 1 × $1275 31.6% OTM over spot $968.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.30 mid)

= $171 credit for the 7d cycle → $733/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1275)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1277.31)

98%

EV / mo

+$454

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,765

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,050

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,381 @ 76% POP

70% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $73.80/sh now → $52.21 mid-life (likely $37.41–$65.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$50.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 68 simulated challenges: the $1,275 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $1,311 (overshoots $36.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,341	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$13.73/sh	+$1,373 cycle +$1,544 [+$1,315…+$2,838] · 90% credit	73% surv 64%	+$10,848 SAFE cap gain +$66,833
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,275	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.91/sh	+$91 cycle +$262 [+$268…+$1,258] · 84% credit	67% surv 52%	+$2,496 SAFE cap gain +$58,481
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,276	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$40 cycle +$211 [+$200…+$1,200] · 84% credit	67% surv 52%	+$2,560 SAFE cap gain +$58,545
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,381	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.85/sh	+$185 cycle +$356 [-$53…+$1,582] · 71% credit	76% surv 70%	+$13,940 SAFE cap gain +$69,925

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$733/mo
vs 50% target ($15,825/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($31,650/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,415/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1275 is at/above CC-SS $1230.94: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-28,052

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.71 collected) or spot ≥ $1,277.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,275)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,262.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,262-1,277.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,277.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,275.00 (2.3σ)	$171	$2,405	+$58,390	+$5,311
+2.5%	$1,306.88 (2.6σ)	$-3,016	$2,628	+$58,613	+$5,311
+5%	$1,338.75 (2.8σ)	$-6,204	$2,851	+$58,836	+$5,311

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,985

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,239

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1275): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$734

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,480 (+$53,505 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,215 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$734, the opportunity cost of earning $733/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,846 (+$52,139 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1150

17 Jul

18.7%

90%

20%

$1,600

$6,857

-$9,471

$14,589

Sell 2 × $1150 18.7% OTM over spot $968.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $8.32 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1150)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1158.33)

91%

EV / mo

+$3,362

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.2] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,797

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,818

Free roll-up

+$14/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,291 @ 79% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $66.57/sh now → $47.09 mid-life (likely $44.22–$73.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$39.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 364 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,188 (overshoots $38.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,216	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$15.10/sh	+$3,020 cycle +$4,620 [+$1,308…+$4,287] · 87% credit	73% surv 65%	-$203 NOT cap gain +$55,782
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,150	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.85/sh	+$771 cycle +$2,371 [+$111…+$2,006] · 80% credit	67% surv 52%	-$16,131 NOT cap gain +$39,854
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,156	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.70/sh	+$141 cycle +$1,741 [-$696…+$1,166] · 54% credit	68% surv 54%	-$15,502 NOT cap gain +$40,483
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,266	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.40/sh	+$81 cycle +$1,681 [-$2,273…+$1,076] · 41% credit	78% surv 72%	+$7,208 SAFE cap gain +$63,193
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,291	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$7.29/sh	-$1,458 cycle +$142 [-$4,250…-$641] · 20% credit	79% surv 75%	+$10,844 SAFE cap gain +$66,829
budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,458 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$142 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,267/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,857/mo
vs 50% target ($15,825/mo)	-57%
vs normal income ($31,650/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,459/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1150 is $81 below CC-SS $1230.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,589
… as % of IC ($50,000)	29.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	7.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-56,050

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.00/sh (~25% of the $8.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,158.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,138-1,158.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,158.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,150.00 (1.4σ)	$1,600	$-16,901	+$39,084	+$880
+2.5%	$1,178.75 (1.6σ)	$-4,150	$-16,700	+$39,285	-$4,870
+5%	$1,207.50 (1.8σ)	$-9,900	$-16,499	+$39,486	-$10,620
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-12,400	$-16,411	+$39,574	-$13,120

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,985

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,239

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1150): -$14,589

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,335 (+$39,650 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,120, the opportunity cost of earning $6,857/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,212, position total $-16,418 (+$39,567 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $1110

17 Jul

14.6%

85%

30%

$2,440

$10,457

-$5,871

$21,749

Sell 2 × $1110 14.6% OTM over spot $968.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.77 mid)

= $2,440 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,457/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1110)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $1122.78)

87%

EV / mo

+$4,194

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.3] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,938

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,650

Free roll-up

+$14/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,276 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $64.25/sh now → $45.45 mid-life (likely $44.34–$73.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 662 simulated challenges: the $1,110 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,144 (overshoots $34.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,176	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$15.32/sh	+$3,064 cycle +$5,504 [+$1,109…+$3,930] · 87% credit	74% surv 65%	-$7,599 NOT cap gain +$48,386
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,110	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.66/sh	+$931 cycle +$3,371 [+$85…+$1,757] · 78% credit	67% surv 52%	-$23,410 NOT cap gain +$32,575
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,116	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.52/sh	+$304 cycle +$2,744 [-$707…+$1,039] · 51% credit	68% surv 54%	-$22,779 NOT cap gain +$33,206
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,226	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.75/sh	+$149 cycle +$2,589 [-$2,493…+$719] · 34% credit	78% surv 72%	-$164 NOT cap gain +$55,821
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,276	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$12.15/sh	-$2,429 cycle +$11 [-$5,790…-$2,066] · 9% credit	82% surv 78%	+$7,608 SAFE cap gain +$63,593
budget: banked $2,440 debit $2,429 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $11,102/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,457/mo
vs 50% target ($15,825/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($31,650/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,059/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1110 is $121 below CC-SS $1230.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,749
… as % of IC ($50,000)	43.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	11.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-56,100

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.05/sh (~25% of the $12.20 collected) or spot ≥ $1,122.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,098.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,099-1,122.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,122.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,110.00 (1.1σ)	$2,440	$-24,341	+$31,644	+$1,720
+2.5%	$1,137.75 (1.3σ)	$-3,110	$-24,147	+$31,838	-$3,830
+5%	$1,165.50 (1.5σ)	$-8,660	$-23,953	+$32,032	-$9,380
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-19,560	$-23,571	+$32,414	-$20,280

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,985

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,239

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1110): -$21,749

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,495 (+$32,490 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,280, the opportunity cost of earning $10,457/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,372, position total $-23,578 (+$32,407 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1070

17 Jul

10.4%

79%

33%

$3,810

$16,329

—

$28,379

Sell 2 × $1070 10.4% OTM over spot $968.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $20.23 mid)

= $3,810 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,329/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1070)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $1090.22)

82%

EV / mo

+$5,315

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,208

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,953

Free roll-up

+$14/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,281 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $61.94/sh now → $43.81 mid-life (likely $47.62–$74.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $19.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 993 simulated challenges: the $1,070 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,103 (overshoots $32.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,136	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$15.44/sh	+$3,087 cycle +$6,897 [+$844…+$3,204] · 86% credit	74% surv 65%	-$14,486 NOT cap gain +$41,499
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,070	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.39/sh	+$1,078 cycle +$4,888 [-$28…+$1,323] · 74% credit	67% surv 52%	-$30,173 NOT cap gain +$25,812
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,076	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.27/sh	+$454 cycle +$4,264 [-$786…+$647] · 43% credit	68% surv 54%	-$29,539 NOT cap gain +$26,446
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,186	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.99/sh	+$199 cycle +$4,009 [-$2,681…+$62] · 25% credit	78% surv 73%	-$7,024 NOT cap gain +$48,961
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,281	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$18.93/sh	-$3,786 cycle +$24 [-$7,811…-$4,250] · 0% credit	85% surv 83%	+$8,656 SAFE cap gain +$64,641
budget: banked $3,810 debit $3,786 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,295/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$16,329/mo
vs 50% target ($15,825/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($31,650/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,931/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1070 is $161 below CC-SS $1230.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,379
… as % of IC ($50,000)	56.8%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	14.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-56,220

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.76/sh (~25% of the $19.05 collected) or spot ≥ $1,090.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,070)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,059.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,059-1,090.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,090.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,070.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,810	$-31,251	+$24,734	+$3,090
+2.5%	$1,096.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,540	$-31,064	+$24,921	-$2,260
+5%	$1,123.50 (1.2σ)	$-6,890	$-30,877	+$25,108	-$7,610
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-26,190	$-30,201	+$25,784	-$26,910

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,985

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,239

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1070): -$28,379

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,125 (+$25,860 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,910, the opportunity cost of earning $16,329/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,002, position total $-30,208 (+$25,777 vs today)

▸

100% normal

2 × $1005

17 Jul

3.7%

63%

77%

$7,450

$31,929

+$15,600

$37,739

Sell 2 × $1005 3.7% OTM over spot $968.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $38.65 mid)

= $7,450 credit for the 7d cycle → $31,929/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1005)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $1043.65)

73%

EV / mo

+$6,312

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~11.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,841

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

60%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$780

Free roll-up

+$26/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,286 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $58.18/sh now → $41.15 mid-life (likely $54.06–$77.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $37.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,796 simulated challenges: the $1,005 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $1,038 (overshoots $33.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,071	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$15.40/sh	+$3,080 cycle +$10,530 [+$193…+$1,994] · 78% credit	74% surv 66%	-$24,308 NOT cap gain +$31,677
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,005	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$6.44/sh	+$1,288 cycle +$8,738 [-$113…+$780] · 69% credit	67% surv 52%	-$39,778 NOT cap gain +$16,207
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,016	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.90/sh	+$180 cycle +$7,630 [-$1,518…-$472] · 14% credit	69% surv 56%	-$38,593 NOT cap gain +$17,392
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,121	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.20/sh	+$240 cycle +$7,690 [-$3,326…-$1,087] · 12% credit	79% surv 73%	-$16,798 NOT cap gain +$39,187
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,286	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$26.71/sh	-$5,341 cycle +$2,109 [-$10,909…-$7,257]	90% surv 89%	+$11,776 SAFE cap gain +$67,761
budget: banked $7,450 debit $5,341 (72% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,109 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,815/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$31,929/mo
vs 50% target ($15,825/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($31,650/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$31,531/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1005 is $226 below CC-SS $1230.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$37,739
… as % of IC ($50,000)	75.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	19.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-56,265

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.31/sh (~25% of the $37.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,043.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,005)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $994.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $995-1,043.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,043.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,005.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,450	$-41,066	+$14,919	+$6,730
+2.5%	$1,030.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,425	$-40,891	+$15,094	+$1,705
+5%	$1,055.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,600	$-40,715	+$15,270	-$3,320
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-35,550	$-39,561	+$16,424	-$36,270

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1230.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,985

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,239

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1005): -$37,739

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,485 (+$16,500 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,270, the opportunity cost of earning $31,929/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,362, position total $-39,568 (+$16,417 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (142 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 142 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.035 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,239 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,215

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1055	5d	15 Jul 2026	$14.15	2/2	$16,980	$16,582	80%	84%	+$6,566	-$32,359	64.7%	$-34,105 (vs do-nothing $-30,890)
$1050	5d	15 Jul 2026	$15.20	2/2	$18,240	$17,842	79%	83%	+$6,824	-$33,149	66.3%	$-34,895 (vs do-nothing $-31,680)
$1070	7d	17 Jul 2026	$19.05	2/2	$16,329	$15,931	79%	82%	+$5,315	-$28,379	56.8%	$-30,125 (vs do-nothing $-26,910)
$1065	7d	17 Jul 2026	$20.25	2/2	$17,357	$16,959	78%	82%	+$5,562	-$29,139	58.3%	$-30,885 (vs do-nothing $-27,670)
$1045	5d	15 Jul 2026	$16.35	2/2	$19,620	$19,222	78%	82%	+$7,118	-$33,919	67.8%	$-35,665 (vs do-nothing $-32,450)
$1060	7d	17 Jul 2026	$21.15	2/2	$18,129	$17,731	77%	81%	+$5,502	-$29,959	59.9%	$-31,705 (vs do-nothing $-28,490)
$1040	5d	15 Jul 2026	$17.25	2/2	$20,700	$20,302	76%	81%	+$7,022	-$34,739	69.5%	$-36,485 (vs do-nothing $-33,270)
$1055	7d	17 Jul 2026	$22.60	2/2	$19,371	$18,973	76%	80%	+$5,863	-$30,669	61.3%	$-32,415 (vs do-nothing $-29,200)
$1035	5d	15 Jul 2026	$18.50	2/2	$22,200	$21,802	75%	80%	+$7,252	-$35,489	71.0%	$-37,235 (vs do-nothing $-34,020)
$1050	7d	17 Jul 2026	$23.60	2/2	$20,229	$19,831	74%	80%	+$5,785	-$31,469	62.9%	$-33,215 (vs do-nothing $-30,000)
$1045	7d	17 Jul 2026	$25.00	2/2	$21,429	$21,031	73%	79%	+$5,994	-$32,189	64.4%	$-33,935 (vs do-nothing $-30,720)
$1070	14d	24 Jul 2026	$37.15	2/2	$15,921	$15,523	73%	79%	+$3,882	-$24,759	49.5%	$-26,505 (vs do-nothing $-23,290)
$1050	10d	20 Jul 2026	$27.25	2/2	$16,350	$15,952	73%	78%	+$3,428	-$30,739	61.5%	$-32,485 (vs do-nothing $-29,270)

Show 129 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 129.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1030	5d	15 Jul 2026	$20.05	2/2	$24,060	$23,662	72%	78%	+$5,003	-$36,179	72.4%	$-37,925 (vs do-nothing $-34,710)
$1040	7d	17 Jul 2026	$26.35	2/2	$22,586	$22,188	72%	78%	+$6,102	-$32,919	65.8%	$-34,665 (vs do-nothing $-31,450)
$1065	14d	24 Jul 2026	$38.45	2/2	$16,479	$16,081	72%	78%	+$3,895	-$25,499	51.0%	$-27,245 (vs do-nothing $-24,030)
$1055	12d	22 Jul 2026	$32.90	2/2	$16,450	$16,052	72%	78%	+$3,581	-$28,609	57.2%	$-30,355 (vs do-nothing $-27,140)
$1045	10d	20 Jul 2026	$28.65	2/2	$17,190	$16,792	72%	78%	+$3,508	-$31,459	62.9%	$-33,205 (vs do-nothing $-29,990)
$1060	14d	24 Jul 2026	$39.85	2/2	$17,079	$16,681	71%	78%	+$3,929	-$26,219	52.4%	$-27,965 (vs do-nothing $-24,750)
$1050	12d	22 Jul 2026	$33.85	2/2	$16,925	$16,527	71%	77%	+$3,410	-$29,419	58.8%	$-31,165 (vs do-nothing $-27,950)
$1035	7d	17 Jul 2026	$27.70	2/2	$23,743	$23,345	71%	77%	+$6,150	-$33,649	67.3%	$-35,395 (vs do-nothing $-32,180)
$1025	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.50	2/2	$25,800	$25,402	71%	77%	+$5,192	-$36,889	73.8%	$-38,635 (vs do-nothing $-35,420)
$1040	10d	20 Jul 2026	$29.95	2/2	$17,970	$17,572	70%	77%	+$3,488	-$32,199	64.4%	$-33,945 (vs do-nothing $-30,730)
$1055	14d	24 Jul 2026	$40.70	2/2	$17,443	$17,045	70%	77%	+$3,707	-$27,049	54.1%	$-28,795 (vs do-nothing $-25,580)
$1045	12d	22 Jul 2026	$35.60	2/2	$17,800	$17,402	70%	77%	+$3,608	-$30,069	60.1%	$-31,815 (vs do-nothing $-28,600)
$1030	7d	17 Jul 2026	$29.15	2/2	$24,986	$24,588	70%	77%	+$6,223	-$34,359	68.7%	$-36,105 (vs do-nothing $-32,890)
$1050	14d	24 Jul 2026	$42.85	2/2	$18,364	$17,966	70%	77%	+$4,019	-$27,619	55.2%	$-29,365 (vs do-nothing $-26,150)
$1035	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.15	2/2	$19,290	$18,892	69%	77%	+$3,968	-$32,759	65.5%	$-34,505 (vs do-nothing $-31,290)
$1020	5d	15 Jul 2026	$22.95	2/2	$27,540	$27,142	69%	76%	+$5,283	-$37,599	75.2%	$-39,345 (vs do-nothing $-36,130)
$1060	21d	31 Jul 2026	$55.65	2/2	$15,900	$15,502	69%	77%	+$3,577	-$23,059	46.1%	$-24,805 (vs do-nothing $-21,590)
$1040	12d	22 Jul 2026	$36.90	2/2	$18,450	$18,052	69%	76%	+$3,551	-$30,809	61.6%	$-32,555 (vs do-nothing $-29,340)
$1045	14d	24 Jul 2026	$43.25	2/2	$18,536	$18,138	69%	76%	+$3,560	-$28,539	57.1%	$-30,285 (vs do-nothing $-27,070)
$1025	7d	17 Jul 2026	$31.05	2/2	$26,614	$26,216	68%	76%	+$6,617	-$34,979	70.0%	$-36,725 (vs do-nothing $-33,510)
$1055	21d	31 Jul 2026	$57.30	2/2	$16,371	$15,973	68%	76%	+$3,622	-$23,729	47.5%	$-25,475 (vs do-nothing $-22,260)
$1030	10d	20 Jul 2026	$33.10	2/2	$19,860	$19,462	68%	76%	+$3,657	-$33,569	67.1%	$-35,315 (vs do-nothing $-32,100)
$1035	12d	22 Jul 2026	$38.05	2/2	$19,025	$18,627	68%	76%	+$3,387	-$31,579	63.2%	$-33,325 (vs do-nothing $-30,110)
$1040	14d	24 Jul 2026	$46.05	2/2	$19,736	$19,338	68%	76%	+$4,105	-$28,979	58.0%	$-30,725 (vs do-nothing $-27,510)
$1015	5d	15 Jul 2026	$24.55	2/2	$29,460	$29,062	68%	75%	+$5,451	-$38,279	76.6%	$-40,025 (vs do-nothing $-36,810)
$1050	21d	31 Jul 2026	$58.85	2/2	$16,814	$16,416	68%	76%	+$3,627	-$24,419	48.8%	$-26,165 (vs do-nothing $-22,950)
$1025	10d	20 Jul 2026	$34.55	2/2	$20,730	$20,332	67%	75%	+$3,602	-$34,279	68.6%	$-36,025 (vs do-nothing $-32,810)
$1030	12d	22 Jul 2026	$40.15	2/2	$20,075	$19,677	67%	75%	+$3,666	-$32,159	64.3%	$-33,905 (vs do-nothing $-30,690)
$1045	21d	31 Jul 2026	$59.05	2/2	$16,871	$16,473	67%	75%	+$3,232	-$25,379	50.8%	$-27,125 (vs do-nothing $-23,910)
$1035	14d	24 Jul 2026	$46.70	2/2	$20,014	$19,616	67%	75%	+$3,706	-$29,849	59.7%	$-31,595 (vs do-nothing $-28,380)
$1040	21d	31 Jul 2026	$60.75	2/2	$17,357	$16,959	66%	75%	+$3,254	-$26,039	52.1%	$-27,785 (vs do-nothing $-24,570)
$1010	5d	15 Jul 2026	$26.20	2/2	$31,440	$31,042	66%	74%	+$5,576	-$38,949	77.9%	$-40,695 (vs do-nothing $-37,480)
$1025	12d	22 Jul 2026	$41.55	2/2	$20,775	$20,377	66%	75%	+$3,561	-$32,879	65.8%	$-34,625 (vs do-nothing $-31,410)
$1030	14d	24 Jul 2026	$48.60	2/2	$20,829	$20,431	66%	75%	+$3,819	-$30,469	60.9%	$-32,215 (vs do-nothing $-29,000)
$1020	10d	20 Jul 2026	$36.95	2/2	$22,170	$21,772	66%	74%	+$4,074	-$34,799	69.6%	$-36,545 (vs do-nothing $-33,330)
$1015	7d	17 Jul 2026	$34.20	2/2	$29,314	$28,916	66%	74%	+$6,647	-$36,349	72.7%	$-38,095 (vs do-nothing $-34,880)
$1035	21d	31 Jul 2026	$62.50	2/2	$17,857	$17,459	65%	75%	+$3,277	-$26,689	53.4%	$-28,435 (vs do-nothing $-25,220)
$1005	5d	15 Jul 2026	$28.00	1/2	$16,800	$17,482	65%	74%	+$4,384	-$19,794	39.6%	$-22,275 (vs do-nothing $-19,060)
$1025	14d	24 Jul 2026	$50.20	2/2	$21,514	$21,116	65%	74%	+$3,779	-$31,149	62.3%	$-32,895 (vs do-nothing $-29,680)
$1020	12d	22 Jul 2026	$43.40	2/2	$21,700	$21,302	65%	74%	+$3,647	-$33,509	67.0%	$-35,255 (vs do-nothing $-32,040)
$1015	10d	20 Jul 2026	$38.00	2/2	$22,800	$22,402	65%	74%	+$3,691	-$35,589	71.2%	$-37,335 (vs do-nothing $-34,120)
$1030	21d	31 Jul 2026	$64.30	2/2	$18,371	$17,973	65%	74%	+$3,300	-$27,329	54.7%	$-29,075 (vs do-nothing $-25,860)
$1022.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$51.20	2/2	$21,943	$21,545	65%	74%	+$3,836	-$31,449	62.9%	$-33,195 (vs do-nothing $-29,980)
$1010	7d	17 Jul 2026	$35.50	2/2	$30,429	$30,031	65%	74%	+$6,323	-$37,089	74.2%	$-38,835 (vs do-nothing $-35,620)
$1020	14d	24 Jul 2026	$52.90	2/2	$22,671	$22,273	64%	74%	+$4,186	-$31,609	63.2%	$-33,355 (vs do-nothing $-30,140)
$1025	21d	31 Jul 2026	$66.10	2/2	$18,886	$18,488	64%	74%	+$3,310	-$27,969	55.9%	$-29,715 (vs do-nothing $-26,500)
$1015	12d	22 Jul 2026	$45.30	2/2	$22,650	$22,252	64%	74%	+$3,722	-$34,129	68.3%	$-35,875 (vs do-nothing $-32,660)
$1017.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.00	2/2	$22,714	$22,316	64%	73%	+$3,844	-$32,089	64.2%	$-33,835 (vs do-nothing $-30,620)
$1000	5d	15 Jul 2026	$29.85	1/2	$17,910	$18,592	64%	73%	+$4,461	-$20,109	40.2%	$-22,590 (vs do-nothing $-19,375)
$1010	10d	20 Jul 2026	$40.10	2/2	$24,060	$23,662	64%	73%	+$3,893	-$36,169	72.3%	$-37,915 (vs do-nothing $-34,700)
$1005	7d	17 Jul 2026	$37.25	1/2	$15,964	$16,646	63%	73%	+$3,156	-$18,869	37.7%	$-21,350 (vs do-nothing $-18,135)
$1015	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.95	2/2	$23,121	$22,723	63%	73%	+$3,861	-$32,399	64.8%	$-34,145 (vs do-nothing $-30,930)
$1020	21d	31 Jul 2026	$68.45	2/2	$19,557	$19,159	63%	73%	+$3,463	-$28,499	57.0%	$-30,245 (vs do-nothing $-27,030)
$1010	12d	22 Jul 2026	$47.25	2/2	$23,625	$23,227	63%	73%	+$3,787	-$34,739	69.5%	$-36,485 (vs do-nothing $-33,270)
$1012.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$54.85	2/2	$23,507	$23,109	63%	73%	+$3,849	-$32,719	65.4%	$-34,465 (vs do-nothing $-31,250)
$1015	21d	31 Jul 2026	$70.30	2/2	$20,086	$19,688	62%	73%	+$3,460	-$29,129	58.3%	$-30,875 (vs do-nothing $-27,660)
$1005	10d	20 Jul 2026	$41.35	2/2	$24,810	$24,412	62%	73%	+$3,537	-$36,919	73.8%	$-38,665 (vs do-nothing $-35,450)
$1010	14d	24 Jul 2026	$55.20	2/2	$23,657	$23,259	62%	73%	+$3,596	-$33,149	66.3%	$-34,895 (vs do-nothing $-31,680)
$1005	12d	22 Jul 2026	$49.30	2/2	$24,650	$24,252	62%	72%	+$3,866	-$35,329	70.7%	$-37,075 (vs do-nothing $-33,860)
$1007.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$56.75	2/2	$24,321	$23,923	62%	72%	+$3,850	-$33,339	66.7%	$-35,085 (vs do-nothing $-31,870)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 22:04