FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $971.42

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1229.91 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $971.42 UNDERWATER $248.58 (20.4% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1229.91 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$30,441/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$389/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-55,290	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,221/mo

HEDGE COVER
$389/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$30,441/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1229.91 (probe: $1230C 14d) brings only $4,714/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$52,841

was $55,290 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,604

CC-SS ratchet

$1,238.52 → $1,229.91

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$23.02	$4,604	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 77 (live) · RSI 68 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 26 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,219.06 (+25%) · daily UBB $1,220.31 · 1-wk expected move ±$131 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1075 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($15,221/mo); it brings $15,514/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1010/7d for $30,557/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1270/7d (97% survival, $900/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $27,363 (55% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-55,390 and cuts bleed by $389/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1075, 79% survival, $15,514/mo (E[net] $3,799/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $1075	79%	$15,514	$3,799

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $3,799/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1075 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $15,514/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1110 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $5,014/mo less (32% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1110 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $971.42 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1270

17 Jul

30.7%

97%

$210

$900

-$14,614

Sell 1 × $1270 30.7% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.36 mid)

= $210 credit for the 7d cycle → $900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1270)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1272.36)

97%

EV / mo

+$580

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,606

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,748

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,389 @ 77% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $70.09/sh now → $49.58 mid-life (likely $31.52–$71.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 75 simulated challenges: the $1,270 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $1,308 (overshoots $38.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,270	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.33/sh	+$233 cycle +$443 [+$317…+$1,386] · 85% credit	67% surv 52%	+$2,404 SAFE cap gain +$57,694
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,339	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$12.51/sh	+$1,251 cycle +$1,461 [+$831…+$2,787] · 85% credit	73% surv 65%	+$10,760 SAFE cap gain +$66,050
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,374	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$2.68/sh	+$268 cycle +$478 [-$329…+$1,728] · 71% credit	76% surv 70%	+$13,522 SAFE cap gain +$68,812
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,389	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.87/sh	-$187 cycle +$23 [-$899…+$1,270] · 56% credit	77% surv 72%	+$14,672 SAFE cap gain +$69,962
budget: banked $210 debit $187 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $7,953/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$900/mo
vs 50% target ($15,221/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($30,441/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,846/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1229.91: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-27,671

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,272.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,257-1,272.36	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,272.36	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,270.00 (2.3σ)	$210	$2,171	+$57,461	+$4,765
+2.5%	$1,301.75 (2.5σ)	$-2,965	$2,393	+$57,683	+$4,765
+5%	$1,333.50 (2.8σ)	$-6,140	$2,616	+$57,906	+$4,765

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1229.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,290

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,508

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1270): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$546

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,328 (+$52,962 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$546, the opportunity cost of earning $900/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,584 (+$51,706 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1150

17 Jul

18.4%

90%

20%

$1,560

$6,686

-$8,829

$14,423

Sell 2 × $1150 18.4% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $8.20 mid)

= $1,560 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,686/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1150)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1158.20)

91%

EV / mo

+$3,153

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.3] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,108

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,419

Free roll-up

+$8/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,294 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $63.47/sh now → $44.90 mid-life (likely $41.84–$70.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 361 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,187 (overshoots $37.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,150	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.98/sh	+$995 cycle +$2,555 [+$466…+$2,154] · 88% credit	67% surv 52%	-$15,769 NOT cap gain +$39,521
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,219	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$13.80/sh	+$2,759 cycle +$4,319 [+$1,106…+$3,957] · 86% credit	74% surv 65%	+$191 SAFE cap gain +$55,481
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,154	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.89/sh	+$378 cycle +$1,938 [-$371…+$1,376] · 62% credit	67% surv 53%	-$15,645 NOT cap gain +$39,645
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,264	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.44/sh	+$288 cycle +$1,848 [-$1,916…+$1,219] · 44% credit	78% surv 72%	+$7,035 SAFE cap gain +$62,325
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,294	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$6.86/sh	-$1,371 cycle +$189 [-$4,025…-$541] · 20% credit	80% surv 76%	+$11,586 SAFE cap gain +$66,876
budget: banked $1,560 debit $1,371 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$189 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $12,680/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,686/mo
vs 50% target ($15,221/mo)	-56%
vs normal income ($30,441/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,297/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1150 is $80 below CC-SS $1229.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,423
… as % of IC ($50,000)	28.8%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	7.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-55,370

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.95/sh (~25% of the $7.80 collected) or spot ≥ $1,158.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,138-1,158.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,158.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,150.00 (1.4σ)	$1,560	$-16,764	+$38,526	+$670
+2.5%	$1,178.75 (1.6σ)	$-4,190	$-16,563	+$38,727	-$5,080
+5%	$1,207.50 (1.8σ)	$-9,940	$-16,361	+$38,929	-$10,830
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-12,440	$-16,274	+$39,016	-$13,330

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1229.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,290

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,508

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1150): -$14,423

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,205 (+$39,085 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,330, the opportunity cost of earning $6,686/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,252, position total $-16,281 (+$39,009 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $1110

17 Jul

14.3%

85%

31%

$2,450

$10,500

-$5,014

$21,533

Sell 2 × $1110 14.3% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.60 mid)

= $2,450 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1110)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $1122.60)

87%

EV / mo

+$3,993

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.0] median · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,946

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,217

Free roll-up

+$20/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,279 @ 82% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $61.26/sh now → $43.33 mid-life (likely $41.55–$69.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 683 simulated challenges: the $1,110 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,143 (overshoots $33.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,110	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.73/sh	+$1,145 cycle +$3,595 [+$413…+$1,949] · 88% credit	67% surv 52%	-$23,009 NOT cap gain +$32,281
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,179	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.02/sh	+$2,803 cycle +$5,253 [+$929…+$3,694] · 86% credit	74% surv 65%	-$7,154 NOT cap gain +$48,136
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,119	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.28/sh	+$57 cycle +$2,507 [-$977…+$741] · 43% credit	68% surv 55%	-$22,321 NOT cap gain +$32,969
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,229	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.07/sh	+$13 cycle +$2,463 [-$2,412…+$652] · 33% credit	78% surv 73%	+$406 SAFE cap gain +$55,696
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,279	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$11.14/sh	-$2,229 cycle +$221 [-$5,279…-$1,796] · 10% credit	82% surv 79%	+$8,513 SAFE cap gain +$63,803
budget: banked $2,450 debit $2,229 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$221 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,731/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,500/mo
vs 50% target ($15,221/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($30,441/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,111/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1110 is $120 below CC-SS $1229.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,533
… as % of IC ($50,000)	43.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	10.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-55,360

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.06/sh (~25% of the $12.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,122.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,098.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,099-1,122.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,122.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,110.00 (1.1σ)	$2,450	$-24,154	+$31,136	+$1,560
+2.5%	$1,137.75 (1.3σ)	$-3,100	$-23,960	+$31,330	-$3,990
+5%	$1,165.50 (1.5σ)	$-8,650	$-23,765	+$31,525	-$9,540
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-19,550	$-23,384	+$31,906	-$20,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1229.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,290

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,508

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1110): -$21,533

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,315 (+$31,975 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,440, the opportunity cost of earning $10,500/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,362, position total $-23,391 (+$31,899 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1075

17 Jul

10.7%

79%

33%

$3,620

$15,514

—

$27,363

Sell 2 × $1075 10.7% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.60 mid)

= $3,620 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,514/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1075)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $1093.60)

83%

EV / mo

+$4,888

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.3] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,083

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,774

Free roll-up

+$20/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,284 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $59.33/sh now → $41.97 mid-life (likely $43.09–$69.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $18.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 977 simulated challenges: the $1,075 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,106 (overshoots $31.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,075	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$6.33/sh	+$1,266 cycle +$4,886 [+$339…+$1,859] · 88% credit	67% surv 52%	-$28,963 NOT cap gain +$26,327
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,144	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.13/sh	+$2,826 cycle +$6,446 [+$735…+$3,173] · 85% credit	74% surv 66%	-$13,207 NOT cap gain +$42,083
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,084	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.92/sh	+$184 cycle +$3,804 [-$1,013…+$555] · 37% credit	68% surv 55%	-$28,269 NOT cap gain +$27,021
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,194	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$58 cycle +$3,678 [-$2,595…+$220] · 29% credit	78% surv 73%	-$5,625 NOT cap gain +$49,665
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,284	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$17.96/sh	-$3,591 cycle +$29 [-$7,166…-$3,676] · 2% credit	85% surv 83%	+$9,356 SAFE cap gain +$64,646
budget: banked $3,620 debit $3,591 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$29 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,004/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,514/mo
vs 50% target ($15,221/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($30,441/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,126/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1075 is $155 below CC-SS $1229.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,363
… as % of IC ($50,000)	54.7%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	13.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-55,390

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.53/sh (~25% of the $18.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,093.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,075)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,064.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,064-1,093.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,093.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,075.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,620	$-30,229	+$25,061	+$2,730
+2.5%	$1,101.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,755	$-30,041	+$25,249	-$2,645
+5%	$1,128.75 (1.2σ)	$-7,130	$-29,853	+$25,437	-$8,020
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-25,380	$-29,214	+$26,076	-$26,270

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1229.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,290

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,508

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1075): -$27,363

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,145 (+$26,145 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,270, the opportunity cost of earning $15,514/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,192, position total $-29,221 (+$26,069 vs today)

▸

100% normal

2 × $1010

17 Jul

4.0%

64%

76%

$7,130

$30,557

+$15,043

$36,853

Sell 2 × $1010 4.0% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $36.52 mid)

= $7,130 credit for the 7d cycle → $30,557/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1010)

64%

Breach risk

36%

POP (stays ≤ $1046.53)

73%

EV / mo

+$5,907

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.5-1.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~10.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,016

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

58%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$756

Free roll-up

+$32/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,289 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $55.74/sh now → $39.43 mid-life (likely $51.75–$75.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $35.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,750 simulated challenges: the $1,010 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,043 (overshoots $32.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,010	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$7.31/sh	+$1,462 cycle +$8,592 [+$269…+$1,044] · 86% credit	67% surv 52%	-$38,712 NOT cap gain +$16,578
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,079	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.13/sh	+$2,826 cycle +$9,956 [+$22…+$1,803] · 75% credit	74% surv 66%	-$23,152 NOT cap gain +$32,138
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,024	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.29/sh	+$57 cycle +$7,187 [-$1,568…-$556] · 14% credit	69% surv 57%	-$37,305 NOT cap gain +$17,985
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,129	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.52/sh	+$105 cycle +$7,235 [-$3,373…-$1,161] · 11% credit	79% surv 74%	-$15,523 NOT cap gain +$39,767
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,289	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$25.36/sh	-$5,073 cycle +$2,057 [-$10,405…-$6,916]	90% surv 89%	+$12,419 SAFE cap gain +$67,709
budget: banked $7,130 debit $5,073 (71% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,057 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,689/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$30,557/mo
vs 50% target ($15,221/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($30,441/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30,168/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1010 is $220 below CC-SS $1229.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,853
… as % of IC ($50,000)	73.7%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	18.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-55,465

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.91/sh (~25% of the $35.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,046.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,010)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $999.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,000-1,046.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,046.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,010.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,130	$-40,174	+$15,116	+$6,240
+2.5%	$1,035.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,080	$-39,997	+$15,293	+$1,190
+5%	$1,060.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,970	$-39,820	+$15,470	-$3,860
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.9σ)	$-34,870	$-38,704	+$16,586	-$35,760

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1229.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,290

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,508

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1010): -$36,853

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,635 (+$16,655 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,760, the opportunity cost of earning $30,557/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,682, position total $-38,711 (+$16,579 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (138 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 138 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.035 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$53,508 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,875

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1055	5d	15 Jul 2026	$13.20	2/2	$15,840	$15,451	80%	83%	+$5,185	-$32,343	64.7%	$-34,125 (vs do-nothing $-31,250)
$1075	7d	17 Jul 2026	$18.10	2/2	$15,514	$15,126	79%	83%	+$4,888	-$27,363	54.7%	$-29,145 (vs do-nothing $-26,270)
$1050	5d	15 Jul 2026	$14.25	2/2	$17,100	$16,711	78%	82%	+$5,444	-$33,133	66.3%	$-34,915 (vs do-nothing $-32,040)
$1070	7d	17 Jul 2026	$19.15	2/2	$16,414	$16,026	78%	82%	+$5,037	-$28,153	56.3%	$-29,935 (vs do-nothing $-27,060)
$1065	7d	17 Jul 2026	$20.35	2/2	$17,443	$17,054	77%	81%	+$5,267	-$28,913	57.8%	$-30,695 (vs do-nothing $-27,820)
$1045	5d	15 Jul 2026	$15.20	2/2	$18,240	$17,851	77%	81%	+$5,498	-$33,943	67.9%	$-35,725 (vs do-nothing $-32,850)
$1060	7d	17 Jul 2026	$21.35	2/2	$18,300	$17,911	76%	81%	+$5,277	-$29,713	59.4%	$-31,495 (vs do-nothing $-28,620)
$1040	5d	15 Jul 2026	$16.55	2/2	$19,860	$19,471	76%	80%	+$5,943	-$34,673	69.3%	$-36,455 (vs do-nothing $-33,580)
$1055	7d	17 Jul 2026	$22.65	2/2	$19,414	$19,026	75%	80%	+$5,493	-$30,453	60.9%	$-32,235 (vs do-nothing $-29,360)
$1035	5d	15 Jul 2026	$17.70	2/2	$21,240	$20,851	74%	79%	+$6,053	-$35,443	70.9%	$-37,225 (vs do-nothing $-34,350)
$1050	7d	17 Jul 2026	$23.85	2/2	$20,443	$20,054	74%	79%	+$5,570	-$31,213	62.4%	$-32,995 (vs do-nothing $-30,120)
$1030	5d	15 Jul 2026	$19.00	2/2	$22,800	$22,411	73%	78%	+$6,243	-$36,183	72.4%	$-37,965 (vs do-nothing $-35,090)
$1045	7d	17 Jul 2026	$25.05	2/2	$21,471	$21,083	73%	78%	+$5,591	-$31,973	63.9%	$-33,755 (vs do-nothing $-30,880)

Show 125 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 125.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1070	14d	24 Jul 2026	$35.85	2/2	$15,364	$14,976	73%	78%	+$3,288	-$24,813	49.6%	$-26,595 (vs do-nothing $-23,720)
$1060	12d	22 Jul 2026	$31.15	2/2	$15,575	$15,186	73%	79%	+$3,419	-$27,753	55.5%	$-29,535 (vs do-nothing $-26,660)
$1050	10d	20 Jul 2026	$27.20	2/2	$16,320	$15,931	72%	78%	+$3,506	-$30,543	61.1%	$-32,325 (vs do-nothing $-29,450)
$1065	14d	24 Jul 2026	$37.40	2/2	$16,029	$15,640	72%	78%	+$3,408	-$25,503	51.0%	$-27,285 (vs do-nothing $-24,410)
$1055	12d	22 Jul 2026	$32.15	2/2	$16,075	$15,686	72%	78%	+$3,291	-$28,553	57.1%	$-30,335 (vs do-nothing $-27,460)
$1040	7d	17 Jul 2026	$26.45	2/2	$22,671	$22,283	72%	78%	+$5,727	-$32,693	65.4%	$-34,475 (vs do-nothing $-31,600)
$1025	5d	15 Jul 2026	$20.40	2/2	$24,480	$24,091	71%	78%	+$6,448	-$36,903	73.8%	$-38,685 (vs do-nothing $-35,810)
$1045	10d	20 Jul 2026	$27.75	2/2	$16,650	$16,261	71%	78%	+$3,050	-$31,433	62.9%	$-33,215 (vs do-nothing $-30,340)
$1060	14d	24 Jul 2026	$38.85	2/2	$16,650	$16,261	71%	77%	+$3,464	-$26,213	52.4%	$-27,995 (vs do-nothing $-25,120)
$1050	12d	22 Jul 2026	$33.55	2/2	$16,775	$16,386	71%	77%	+$3,334	-$29,273	58.5%	$-31,055 (vs do-nothing $-28,180)
$1035	7d	17 Jul 2026	$27.85	2/2	$23,871	$23,483	70%	77%	+$5,803	-$33,413	66.8%	$-35,195 (vs do-nothing $-32,320)
$1040	10d	20 Jul 2026	$29.20	2/2	$17,520	$17,131	70%	77%	+$3,093	-$32,143	64.3%	$-33,925 (vs do-nothing $-31,050)
$1055	14d	24 Jul 2026	$39.95	2/2	$17,121	$16,733	70%	77%	+$3,348	-$26,993	54.0%	$-28,775 (vs do-nothing $-25,900)
$1020	5d	15 Jul 2026	$21.85	2/2	$26,220	$25,831	70%	77%	+$6,603	-$37,613	75.2%	$-39,395 (vs do-nothing $-36,520)
$1045	12d	22 Jul 2026	$35.45	2/2	$17,725	$17,336	70%	77%	+$3,596	-$29,893	59.8%	$-31,675 (vs do-nothing $-28,800)
$1050	14d	24 Jul 2026	$41.90	2/2	$17,957	$17,568	69%	76%	+$3,574	-$27,603	55.2%	$-29,385 (vs do-nothing $-26,510)
$1030	7d	17 Jul 2026	$29.45	2/2	$25,243	$24,854	69%	76%	+$5,989	-$34,093	68.2%	$-35,875 (vs do-nothing $-33,000)
$1035	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.15	2/2	$19,290	$18,901	69%	76%	+$3,994	-$32,553	65.1%	$-34,335 (vs do-nothing $-31,460)
$1060	21d	31 Jul 2026	$54.30	2/2	$15,514	$15,126	69%	76%	+$3,221	-$23,123	46.2%	$-24,905 (vs do-nothing $-22,030)
$1040	12d	22 Jul 2026	$37.35	2/2	$18,675	$18,286	69%	76%	+$3,826	-$30,513	61.0%	$-32,295 (vs do-nothing $-29,420)
$1045	14d	24 Jul 2026	$42.90	2/2	$18,386	$17,997	68%	76%	+$3,370	-$28,403	56.8%	$-30,185 (vs do-nothing $-27,310)
$1055	21d	31 Jul 2026	$55.75	2/2	$15,929	$15,540	68%	76%	+$3,204	-$23,833	47.7%	$-25,615 (vs do-nothing $-22,740)
$1015	5d	15 Jul 2026	$23.40	2/2	$28,080	$27,691	68%	76%	+$6,762	-$38,303	76.6%	$-40,085 (vs do-nothing $-37,210)
$1030	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.60	2/2	$19,560	$19,171	68%	75%	+$3,352	-$33,463	66.9%	$-35,245 (vs do-nothing $-32,370)
$1025	7d	17 Jul 2026	$30.85	2/2	$26,443	$26,054	68%	75%	+$5,941	-$34,813	69.6%	$-36,595 (vs do-nothing $-33,720)
$1035	12d	22 Jul 2026	$38.65	2/2	$19,325	$18,936	68%	76%	+$3,723	-$31,253	62.5%	$-33,035 (vs do-nothing $-30,160)
$1040	14d	24 Jul 2026	$45.05	2/2	$19,307	$18,918	67%	75%	+$3,635	-$28,973	57.9%	$-30,755 (vs do-nothing $-27,880)
$1050	21d	31 Jul 2026	$57.45	2/2	$16,414	$16,026	67%	75%	+$3,246	-$24,493	49.0%	$-26,275 (vs do-nothing $-23,400)
$1025	10d	20 Jul 2026	$33.70	2/2	$20,220	$19,831	67%	75%	+$3,055	-$34,243	68.5%	$-36,025 (vs do-nothing $-33,150)
$1045	21d	31 Jul 2026	$57.50	2/2	$16,429	$16,040	67%	75%	+$2,803	-$25,483	51.0%	$-27,265 (vs do-nothing $-24,390)
$1030	12d	22 Jul 2026	$40.70	2/2	$20,350	$19,961	67%	75%	+$3,962	-$31,843	63.7%	$-33,625 (vs do-nothing $-30,750)
$1035	14d	24 Jul 2026	$46.25	2/2	$19,821	$19,433	67%	75%	+$3,470	-$29,733	59.5%	$-31,515 (vs do-nothing $-28,640)
$1010	5d	15 Jul 2026	$25.00	2/2	$30,000	$29,611	66%	75%	+$6,861	-$38,983	78.0%	$-40,765 (vs do-nothing $-37,890)
$1040	21d	31 Jul 2026	$59.20	2/2	$16,914	$16,526	66%	75%	+$2,818	-$26,143	52.3%	$-27,925 (vs do-nothing $-25,050)
$1025	12d	22 Jul 2026	$42.35	2/2	$21,175	$20,786	66%	75%	+$3,966	-$32,513	65.0%	$-34,295 (vs do-nothing $-31,420)
$1030	14d	24 Jul 2026	$48.00	2/2	$20,571	$20,183	66%	74%	+$3,515	-$30,383	60.8%	$-32,165 (vs do-nothing $-29,290)
$1020	10d	20 Jul 2026	$36.20	2/2	$21,720	$21,331	65%	74%	+$3,552	-$34,743	69.5%	$-36,525 (vs do-nothing $-33,650)
$1015	7d	17 Jul 2026	$34.20	2/2	$29,314	$28,926	65%	74%	+$6,116	-$36,143	72.3%	$-37,925 (vs do-nothing $-35,050)
$1035	21d	31 Jul 2026	$60.90	2/2	$17,400	$17,011	65%	74%	+$2,819	-$26,803	53.6%	$-28,585 (vs do-nothing $-25,710)
$1005	5d	15 Jul 2026	$26.80	1/2	$16,080	$17,026	65%	74%	+$3,537	-$19,811	39.6%	$-22,140 (vs do-nothing $-19,265)
$1025	14d	24 Jul 2026	$49.65	2/2	$21,279	$20,890	65%	74%	+$3,493	-$31,053	62.1%	$-32,835 (vs do-nothing $-29,960)
$1020	12d	22 Jul 2026	$44.00	2/2	$22,000	$21,611	65%	74%	+$3,936	-$33,183	66.4%	$-34,965 (vs do-nothing $-32,090)
$1030	21d	31 Jul 2026	$63.50	2/2	$18,143	$17,754	64%	74%	+$3,064	-$27,283	54.6%	$-29,065 (vs do-nothing $-26,190)
$1015	10d	20 Jul 2026	$37.65	2/2	$22,590	$22,201	64%	74%	+$3,374	-$35,453	70.9%	$-37,235 (vs do-nothing $-34,360)
$1022.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$50.30	2/2	$21,557	$21,168	64%	73%	+$3,398	-$31,423	62.8%	$-33,205 (vs do-nothing $-30,330)
$1010	7d	17 Jul 2026	$35.65	1/2	$15,279	$16,225	64%	73%	+$2,954	-$18,426	36.9%	$-20,755 (vs do-nothing $-17,880)
$1020	14d	24 Jul 2026	$52.15	2/2	$22,350	$21,961	64%	73%	+$3,810	-$31,553	63.1%	$-33,335 (vs do-nothing $-30,460)
$1025	21d	31 Jul 2026	$65.15	2/2	$18,614	$18,226	64%	73%	+$3,023	-$27,953	55.9%	$-29,735 (vs do-nothing $-26,860)
$1015	12d	22 Jul 2026	$45.90	2/2	$22,950	$22,561	63%	73%	+$3,995	-$33,803	67.6%	$-35,585 (vs do-nothing $-32,710)
$1017.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$51.85	2/2	$22,221	$21,833	63%	73%	+$3,295	-$32,113	64.2%	$-33,895 (vs do-nothing $-31,020)
$1010	10d	20 Jul 2026	$38.85	2/2	$23,310	$22,921	63%	73%	+$2,998	-$36,213	72.4%	$-37,995 (vs do-nothing $-35,120)
$1000	5d	15 Jul 2026	$28.60	1/2	$17,160	$18,106	63%	73%	+$3,580	-$20,131	40.3%	$-22,460 (vs do-nothing $-19,585)
$1020	21d	31 Jul 2026	$67.15	2/2	$19,186	$18,797	63%	73%	+$3,069	-$28,553	57.1%	$-30,335 (vs do-nothing $-27,460)
$1015	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.30	2/2	$22,843	$22,454	63%	73%	+$3,523	-$32,323	64.6%	$-34,105 (vs do-nothing $-31,230)
$1005	7d	17 Jul 2026	$37.35	1/2	$16,007	$16,953	62%	72%	+$2,921	-$18,756	37.5%	$-21,085 (vs do-nothing $-18,210)
$1012.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.40	2/2	$22,886	$22,497	62%	72%	+$3,166	-$32,803	65.6%	$-34,585 (vs do-nothing $-31,710)
$1010	12d	22 Jul 2026	$46.60	2/2	$23,300	$22,911	62%	72%	+$2,330	-$34,663	69.3%	$-36,445 (vs do-nothing $-33,570)
$1015	21d	31 Jul 2026	$69.15	2/2	$19,757	$19,368	62%	73%	+$3,100	-$29,153	58.3%	$-30,935 (vs do-nothing $-28,060)
$1005	10d	20 Jul 2026	$41.05	2/2	$24,630	$24,241	62%	72%	+$3,174	-$36,773	73.5%	$-38,555 (vs do-nothing $-35,680)
$1010	14d	24 Jul 2026	$54.65	2/2	$23,421	$23,033	62%	72%	+$3,295	-$33,053	66.1%	$-34,835 (vs do-nothing $-31,960)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 22:25