FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $982.58

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1235.96 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $982.58 UNDERWATER $237.42 (19.5% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1235.96 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$30,150/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$383/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-54,265	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,075/mo

HEDGE COVER
$383/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$30,150/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
6.6 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1235.96 (probe: $1235C 14d) brings only $4,586/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$51,816

was $54,265 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,604

CC-SS ratchet

$1,244.72 → $1,235.96

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1180C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$23.02	$4,604	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 68 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 29 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,219.06 (+24%) · daily UBB $1,219.87 · 1-wk expected move ±$133 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1090 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($15,075/mo); it brings $15,086/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1015/7d for $32,700/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1280/7d (97% survival, $849/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $25,673 (51% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-54,355 and cuts bleed by $383/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $1090, 80% survival, $15,086/mo (E[net] $3,800/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $1090	80%	$15,086	$3,800

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $3,800/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1090 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $15,086/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1125 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 20% → 15%) for $4,929/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1125 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $982.58 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1280

17 Jul

30.3%

97%

$198

$849

-$14,237

Sell 1 × $1280 30.3% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.24 mid)

= $198 credit for the 7d cycle → $849/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1280)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1282.24)

97%

EV / mo

+$529

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.3] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,822

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,774

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,392 @ 77% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $70.28/sh now → $49.72 mid-life (likely $36.82–$67.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 96 simulated challenges: the $1,280 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $1,316 (overshoots $36.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,347	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$14.63/sh	+$1,463 cycle +$1,661 [+$1,117…+$2,890] · 93% credit	73% surv 64%	+$10,623 SAFE cap gain +$64,888
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,280	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.85/sh	+$85 cycle +$283 [+$139…+$1,228] · 81% credit	67% surv 52%	+$2,030 SAFE cap gain +$56,295
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,392	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.64/sh	+$64 cycle +$262 [-$517…+$1,341] · 59% credit	77% surv 71%	+$14,038 SAFE cap gain +$68,303

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$849/mo
vs 50% target ($15,075/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($30,150/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,801/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1280 is at/above CC-SS $1235.96: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-27,158

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.98 collected) or spot ≥ $1,282.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,267.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,267-1,282.24	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,282.24	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,280.00 (2.2σ)	$198	$1,945	+$56,210	+$5,753
+2.5%	$1,312.00 (2.5σ)	$-3,002	$2,169	+$56,434	+$5,753
+5%	$1,344.00 (2.7σ)	$-6,202	$2,393	+$56,658	+$5,753

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1235.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,265

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,451

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1280): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$1,151

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,965 (+$51,300 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,116 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,151, the opportunity cost of earning $849/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-4,868 (+$49,397 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1165

17 Jul

18.6%

90%

20%

$1,530

$6,557

-$8,529

$12,663

Sell 2 × $1165 18.6% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $8.00 mid)

= $1,530 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,557/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1165)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1173.00)

91%

EV / mo

+$3,019

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.4] median · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,501

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,520

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,312 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $63.97/sh now → $45.25 mid-life (likely $40.22–$67.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 407 simulated challenges: the $1,165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,199 (overshoots $33.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,232	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$15.74/sh	+$3,148 cycle +$4,678 [+$1,863…+$4,474] · 90% credit	73% surv 65%	+$2,132 SAFE cap gain +$56,397
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,165	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.47/sh	+$693 cycle +$2,223 [+$207…+$1,935] · 79% credit	67% surv 52%	-$14,280 NOT cap gain +$39,985
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,167	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.04/sh	+$409 cycle +$1,939 [-$185…+$1,553] · 69% credit	67% surv 53%	-$14,062 NOT cap gain +$40,203
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,282	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.82/sh	+$164 cycle +$1,694 [-$1,674…+$1,333] · 48% credit	78% surv 72%	+$9,498 SAFE cap gain +$63,763
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,312	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$6.98/sh	-$1,397 cycle +$133 [-$3,611…-$329] · 20% credit	80% surv 76%	+$14,147 SAFE cap gain +$68,412
budget: banked $1,530 debit $1,397 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $12,755/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,557/mo
vs 50% target ($15,075/mo)	-57%
vs normal income ($30,150/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,174/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1165 is $71 below CC-SS $1235.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,663
… as % of IC ($50,000)	25.3%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	6.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-54,335

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.91/sh (~25% of the $7.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,173.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,153.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,153-1,173.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,173.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,165.00 (1.4σ)	$1,530	$-14,973	+$39,292	+$640
+2.5%	$1,194.12 (1.6σ)	$-4,295	$-14,769	+$39,496	-$5,185
+5%	$1,223.25 (1.8σ)	$-10,120	$-14,565	+$39,700	-$10,360

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1235.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,265

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,451

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1165): -$12,663

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,476 (+$39,789 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,116 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,360, the opportunity cost of earning $6,557/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,282, position total $-14,595 (+$39,670 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $1125

17 Jul

14.5%

85%

30%

$2,370

$10,157

-$4,929

$19,823

Sell 2 × $1125 14.5% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.30 mid)

= $2,370 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,157/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1125)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $1137.30)

87%

EV / mo

+$3,803

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.1] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,820

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,369

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,292 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $61.77/sh now → $43.69 mid-life (likely $40.06–$68.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 617 simulated challenges: the $1,125 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,157 (overshoots $32.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,192	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$15.93/sh	+$3,186 cycle +$5,556 [+$1,452…+$4,369] · 92% credit	74% surv 65%	-$5,270 NOT cap gain +$48,995
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,125	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.25/sh	+$850 cycle +$3,220 [+$145…+$1,790] · 79% credit	67% surv 52%	-$21,563 NOT cap gain +$32,702
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,132	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$80 cycle +$2,450 [-$831…+$950] · 49% credit	68% surv 55%	-$20,796 NOT cap gain +$33,469
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,242	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.14/sh	+$228 cycle +$2,598 [-$2,060…+$1,191] · 42% credit	78% surv 72%	+$2,122 SAFE cap gain +$56,387
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,292	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$10.85/sh	-$2,170 cycle +$200 [-$5,032…-$1,351] · 13% credit	82% surv 78%	+$10,074 SAFE cap gain +$64,339
budget: banked $2,370 debit $2,170 (92% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$200 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,157/mo
vs 50% target ($15,075/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($30,150/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,774/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1125 is $111 below CC-SS $1235.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,823
… as % of IC ($50,000)	39.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	10.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-54,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.96/sh (~25% of the $11.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,137.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,113.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,114-1,137.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,137.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,125.00 (1.1σ)	$2,370	$-22,413	+$31,852	+$1,480
+2.5%	$1,153.12 (1.3σ)	$-3,255	$-22,216	+$32,049	-$4,145
+5%	$1,181.25 (1.5σ)	$-8,880	$-22,019	+$32,246	-$9,770
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.8σ)	$-16,630	$-21,748	+$32,517	-$17,520

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1235.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,265

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,451

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1125): -$19,823

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,636 (+$32,629 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,116 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,520, the opportunity cost of earning $10,157/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,442, position total $-21,755 (+$32,510 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1090

17 Jul

10.9%

80%

31%

$3,520

$15,086

—

$25,673

Sell 2 × $1090 10.9% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.05 mid)

= $3,520 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,086/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1090)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $1108.05)

83%

EV / mo

+$4,694

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,898

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,947

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,287 @ 84% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $59.85/sh now → $42.34 mid-life (likely $44.33–$71.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 933 simulated challenges: the $1,090 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,123 (overshoots $33.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,157	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$16.01/sh	+$3,202 cycle +$6,722 [+$1,093…+$3,486] · 88% credit	74% surv 65%	-$11,349 NOT cap gain +$42,916
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,090	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.88/sh	+$977 cycle +$4,497 [-$30…+$1,452] · 73% credit	67% surv 52%	-$27,531 NOT cap gain +$26,734
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,102	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.07/sh	+$15 cycle +$3,535 [-$1,143…+$266] · 32% credit	69% surv 56%	-$25,921 NOT cap gain +$28,344
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,207	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.35/sh	+$269 cycle +$3,789 [-$2,523…+$372] · 29% credit	78% surv 73%	-$3,932 NOT cap gain +$50,333
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,287	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$16.09/sh	-$3,217 cycle +$303 [-$7,010…-$3,376] · 2% credit	84% surv 82%	+$9,142 SAFE cap gain +$63,407
budget: banked $3,520 debit $3,217 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$303 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,750/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,086/mo
vs 50% target ($15,075/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($30,150/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,703/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1090 is $146 below CC-SS $1235.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,673
… as % of IC ($50,000)	51.3%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	13.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-54,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.40/sh (~25% of the $17.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,108.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,090)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,079.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,079-1,108.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,108.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,090.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,520	$-28,508	+$25,757	+$2,630
+2.5%	$1,117.25 (1.0σ)	$-1,930	$-28,317	+$25,948	-$2,820
+5%	$1,144.50 (1.2σ)	$-7,380	$-28,127	+$26,138	-$8,270
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.8σ)	$-22,480	$-27,598	+$26,667	-$23,370

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1235.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,265

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,451

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1090): -$25,673

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,486 (+$26,779 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,116 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,370, the opportunity cost of earning $15,086/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,292, position total $-27,605 (+$26,660 vs today)

▸

100% normal

2 × $1015

17 Jul

3.3%

62%

80%

$7,630

$32,700

+$17,614

$36,563

Sell 2 × $1015 3.3% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $39.05 mid)

= $7,630 credit for the 7d cycle → $32,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1015)

62%

Breach risk

38%

POP (stays ≤ $1054.05)

72%

EV / mo

+$5,644

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~13.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,859

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

62%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$255

Free roll-up

+$41/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,302 @ 90% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $55.73/sh now → $39.42 mid-life (likely $51.98–$73.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $38.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,873 simulated challenges: the $1,015 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $1,047 (overshoots $32.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,082	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$15.92/sh	+$3,184 cycle +$10,814 [+$566…+$2,156] · 84% credit	74% surv 66%	-$22,782 NOT cap gain +$31,483
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,015	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$6.08/sh	+$1,215 cycle +$8,845 [-$76…+$735] · 70% credit	67% surv 52%	-$38,708 NOT cap gain +$15,557
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,032	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.34/sh	+$69 cycle +$7,699 [-$1,352…-$510] · 12% credit	70% surv 58%	-$36,248 NOT cap gain +$18,017
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,132	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.56/sh	+$311 cycle +$7,941 [-$2,972…-$979] · 11% credit	78% surv 73%	-$15,305 NOT cap gain +$38,960
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,302	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$26.06/sh	-$5,211 cycle +$2,419 [-$10,339…-$7,129]	90% surv 90%	+$14,363 SAFE cap gain +$68,628
budget: banked $7,630 debit $5,211 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,419 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,456/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$32,700/mo
vs 50% target ($15,075/mo)	+117%
vs normal income ($30,150/mo)	108% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$32,317/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1015 is $221 below CC-SS $1235.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,563
… as % of IC ($50,000)	73.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	18.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-54,445

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.54/sh (~25% of the $38.15 collected) or spot ≥ $1,054.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,015)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,004.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,005-1,054.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,054.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,015.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,630	$-39,923	+$14,342	+$6,740
+2.5%	$1,040.38 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,555	$-39,745	+$14,520	+$1,665
+5%	$1,065.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,520	$-39,568	+$14,697	-$3,410
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.8σ)	$-33,370	$-38,488	+$15,777	-$34,260

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1235.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,265

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,451

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1015): -$36,563

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,376 (+$15,889 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,116 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,260, the opportunity cost of earning $32,700/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,219.06 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,182, position total $-38,495 (+$15,770 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (140 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 140 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.035 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$52,451 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,116

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1090	7d	17 Jul 2026	$17.60	2/2	$15,086	$14,703	80%	83%	+$4,694	-$25,673	51.3%	$-27,486 (vs do-nothing $-23,370)
$1065	5d	15 Jul 2026	$13.55	2/2	$16,260	$15,877	79%	83%	+$5,010	-$31,483	63.0%	$-33,296 (vs do-nothing $-29,180)
$1085	7d	17 Jul 2026	$18.75	2/2	$16,071	$15,689	79%	82%	+$4,946	-$26,443	52.9%	$-28,256 (vs do-nothing $-24,140)
$1060	5d	15 Jul 2026	$14.70	2/2	$17,640	$17,257	78%	82%	+$5,346	-$32,253	64.5%	$-34,066 (vs do-nothing $-29,950)
$1080	7d	17 Jul 2026	$19.75	2/2	$16,929	$16,546	78%	82%	+$5,025	-$27,243	54.5%	$-29,056 (vs do-nothing $-24,940)
$1075	7d	17 Jul 2026	$20.95	2/2	$17,957	$17,574	77%	81%	+$5,228	-$28,003	56.0%	$-29,816 (vs do-nothing $-25,700)
$1055	5d	15 Jul 2026	$15.80	2/2	$18,960	$18,577	77%	81%	+$5,537	-$33,033	66.1%	$-34,846 (vs do-nothing $-30,730)
$1070	7d	17 Jul 2026	$22.05	2/2	$18,900	$18,517	76%	80%	+$5,296	-$28,783	57.6%	$-30,596 (vs do-nothing $-26,480)
$1050	5d	15 Jul 2026	$16.90	2/2	$20,280	$19,897	75%	80%	+$5,638	-$33,813	67.6%	$-35,626 (vs do-nothing $-31,510)
$1065	7d	17 Jul 2026	$23.25	2/2	$19,929	$19,546	75%	79%	+$5,399	-$29,543	59.1%	$-31,356 (vs do-nothing $-27,240)
$1045	5d	15 Jul 2026	$18.15	2/2	$21,780	$21,397	74%	79%	+$5,823	-$34,563	69.1%	$-36,376 (vs do-nothing $-32,260)
$1060	7d	17 Jul 2026	$24.60	2/2	$21,086	$20,703	73%	79%	+$5,577	-$30,273	60.5%	$-32,086 (vs do-nothing $-27,970)
$1085	14d	24 Jul 2026	$35.45	2/2	$15,193	$14,810	73%	79%	+$3,290	-$23,103	46.2%	$-24,916 (vs do-nothing $-20,800)

Show 127 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 127.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1055	7d	17 Jul 2026	$25.90	2/2	$22,200	$21,817	72%	78%	+$5,656	-$31,013	62.0%	$-32,826 (vs do-nothing $-28,710)
$1040	5d	15 Jul 2026	$19.45	2/2	$23,340	$22,957	72%	78%	+$5,969	-$35,303	70.6%	$-37,116 (vs do-nothing $-33,000)
$1080	14d	24 Jul 2026	$36.60	2/2	$15,686	$15,303	72%	78%	+$3,250	-$23,873	47.7%	$-25,686 (vs do-nothing $-21,570)
$1070	12d	22 Jul 2026	$30.50	2/2	$15,250	$14,867	72%	78%	+$2,727	-$27,093	54.2%	$-28,906 (vs do-nothing $-24,790)
$1075	14d	24 Jul 2026	$37.70	2/2	$16,157	$15,774	71%	78%	+$3,168	-$24,653	49.3%	$-26,466 (vs do-nothing $-22,350)
$1065	12d	22 Jul 2026	$31.95	2/2	$15,975	$15,592	71%	77%	+$2,813	-$27,803	55.6%	$-29,616 (vs do-nothing $-25,500)
$1050	7d	17 Jul 2026	$27.35	2/2	$23,443	$23,060	71%	77%	+$5,807	-$31,723	63.4%	$-33,536 (vs do-nothing $-29,420)
$1060	10d	20 Jul 2026	$26.15	2/2	$15,690	$15,307	71%	76%	+$395	-$29,963	59.9%	$-31,776 (vs do-nothing $-27,660)
$1035	5d	15 Jul 2026	$20.90	2/2	$25,080	$24,697	71%	77%	+$6,189	-$36,013	72.0%	$-37,826 (vs do-nothing $-33,710)
$1070	14d	24 Jul 2026	$39.35	2/2	$16,864	$16,482	71%	77%	+$3,300	-$25,323	50.6%	$-27,136 (vs do-nothing $-23,020)
$1060	12d	22 Jul 2026	$33.40	2/2	$16,700	$16,317	70%	77%	+$2,869	-$28,513	57.0%	$-30,326 (vs do-nothing $-26,210)
$1045	7d	17 Jul 2026	$28.70	2/2	$24,600	$24,217	70%	77%	+$5,813	-$32,453	64.9%	$-34,266 (vs do-nothing $-30,150)
$1055	10d	20 Jul 2026	$27.60	2/2	$16,560	$16,177	70%	76%	+$446	-$30,673	61.3%	$-32,486 (vs do-nothing $-28,370)
$1065	14d	24 Jul 2026	$41.20	2/2	$17,657	$17,274	70%	77%	+$3,497	-$25,953	51.9%	$-27,766 (vs do-nothing $-23,650)
$1055	12d	22 Jul 2026	$34.95	2/2	$17,475	$17,092	69%	76%	+$2,945	-$29,203	58.4%	$-31,016 (vs do-nothing $-26,900)
$1075	21d	31 Jul 2026	$53.60	2/2	$15,314	$14,932	69%	76%	+$2,893	-$21,473	42.9%	$-23,286 (vs do-nothing $-19,170)
$1030	5d	15 Jul 2026	$22.40	2/2	$26,880	$26,497	69%	76%	+$6,359	-$36,713	73.4%	$-38,526 (vs do-nothing $-34,410)
$1060	14d	24 Jul 2026	$42.65	2/2	$18,279	$17,896	69%	76%	+$3,500	-$26,663	53.3%	$-28,476 (vs do-nothing $-24,360)
$1050	10d	20 Jul 2026	$29.10	2/2	$17,460	$17,077	69%	75%	+$492	-$31,373	62.7%	$-33,186 (vs do-nothing $-29,070)
$1040	7d	17 Jul 2026	$30.15	2/2	$25,843	$25,460	69%	76%	+$5,842	-$33,163	66.3%	$-34,976 (vs do-nothing $-30,860)
$1070	21d	31 Jul 2026	$54.55	2/2	$15,586	$15,203	68%	76%	+$2,744	-$22,283	44.6%	$-24,096 (vs do-nothing $-19,980)
$1050	12d	22 Jul 2026	$36.55	2/2	$18,275	$17,892	68%	76%	+$3,013	-$29,883	59.8%	$-31,696 (vs do-nothing $-27,580)
$1055	14d	24 Jul 2026	$43.85	2/2	$18,793	$18,410	68%	76%	+$3,373	-$27,423	54.8%	$-29,236 (vs do-nothing $-25,120)
$1045	10d	20 Jul 2026	$33.00	2/2	$19,800	$19,417	68%	75%	+$1,943	-$31,593	63.2%	$-33,406 (vs do-nothing $-29,290)
$1065	21d	31 Jul 2026	$56.90	2/2	$16,257	$15,874	68%	75%	+$2,982	-$22,813	45.6%	$-24,626 (vs do-nothing $-20,510)
$1025	5d	15 Jul 2026	$23.95	2/2	$28,740	$28,357	68%	75%	+$6,476	-$37,403	74.8%	$-39,216 (vs do-nothing $-35,100)
$1035	7d	17 Jul 2026	$31.80	2/2	$27,257	$26,874	67%	75%	+$5,980	-$33,833	67.7%	$-35,646 (vs do-nothing $-31,530)
$1045	12d	22 Jul 2026	$38.20	2/2	$19,100	$18,717	67%	75%	+$3,074	-$30,553	61.1%	$-32,366 (vs do-nothing $-28,250)
$1050	14d	24 Jul 2026	$45.85	2/2	$19,650	$19,267	67%	75%	+$3,566	-$28,023	56.0%	$-29,836 (vs do-nothing $-25,720)
$1060	21d	31 Jul 2026	$58.30	2/2	$16,657	$16,274	67%	75%	+$2,938	-$23,533	47.1%	$-25,346 (vs do-nothing $-21,230)
$1040	10d	20 Jul 2026	$32.65	2/2	$19,590	$19,207	67%	74%	+$807	-$32,663	65.3%	$-34,476 (vs do-nothing $-30,360)
$1055	21d	31 Jul 2026	$59.75	2/2	$17,071	$16,689	66%	75%	+$2,895	-$24,243	48.5%	$-26,056 (vs do-nothing $-21,940)
$1040	12d	22 Jul 2026	$39.90	2/2	$19,950	$19,567	66%	75%	+$3,127	-$31,213	62.4%	$-33,026 (vs do-nothing $-28,910)
$1045	14d	24 Jul 2026	$47.10	2/2	$20,186	$19,803	66%	74%	+$3,414	-$28,773	57.5%	$-30,586 (vs do-nothing $-26,470)
$1030	7d	17 Jul 2026	$33.45	2/2	$28,671	$28,289	66%	74%	+$6,052	-$34,503	69.0%	$-36,316 (vs do-nothing $-32,200)
$1020	5d	15 Jul 2026	$25.55	1/2	$15,330	$16,282	66%	74%	+$3,267	-$19,041	38.1%	$-22,006 (vs do-nothing $-17,890)
$1035	10d	20 Jul 2026	$34.05	2/2	$20,430	$20,047	66%	73%	+$684	-$33,383	66.8%	$-35,196 (vs do-nothing $-31,080)
$1050	21d	31 Jul 2026	$61.40	2/2	$17,543	$17,160	66%	74%	+$2,979	-$24,913	49.8%	$-26,726 (vs do-nothing $-22,610)
$1040	14d	24 Jul 2026	$49.15	2/2	$21,064	$20,682	65%	74%	+$3,580	-$29,363	58.7%	$-31,176 (vs do-nothing $-27,060)
$1035	12d	22 Jul 2026	$41.65	2/2	$20,825	$20,442	65%	74%	+$3,170	-$31,863	63.7%	$-33,676 (vs do-nothing $-29,560)
$1045	21d	31 Jul 2026	$62.70	2/2	$17,914	$17,532	65%	74%	+$2,863	-$25,653	51.3%	$-27,466 (vs do-nothing $-23,350)
$1025	7d	17 Jul 2026	$34.90	2/2	$29,914	$29,532	65%	74%	+$5,886	-$35,213	70.4%	$-37,026 (vs do-nothing $-32,910)
$1030	10d	20 Jul 2026	$35.90	2/2	$21,540	$21,157	65%	73%	+$793	-$34,013	68.0%	$-35,826 (vs do-nothing $-31,710)
$1035	14d	24 Jul 2026	$50.25	2/2	$21,536	$21,153	64%	73%	+$3,315	-$30,143	60.3%	$-31,956 (vs do-nothing $-27,840)
$1030	12d	22 Jul 2026	$43.50	2/2	$21,750	$21,367	64%	73%	+$3,228	-$32,493	65.0%	$-34,306 (vs do-nothing $-30,190)
$1015	5d	15 Jul 2026	$27.20	1/2	$16,320	$17,272	64%	73%	+$3,264	-$19,376	38.8%	$-22,341 (vs do-nothing $-18,225)
$1040	21d	31 Jul 2026	$64.55	2/2	$18,443	$18,060	64%	74%	+$2,890	-$26,283	52.6%	$-28,096 (vs do-nothing $-23,980)
$1025	10d	20 Jul 2026	$37.60	2/2	$22,560	$22,177	64%	73%	+$2,944	-$34,673	69.3%	$-36,486 (vs do-nothing $-32,370)
$1030	14d	24 Jul 2026	$52.10	2/2	$22,329	$21,946	63%	73%	+$3,347	-$30,773	61.5%	$-32,586 (vs do-nothing $-28,470)
$1035	21d	31 Jul 2026	$66.35	2/2	$18,957	$18,574	63%	73%	+$2,890	-$26,923	53.8%	$-28,736 (vs do-nothing $-24,620)
$1025	12d	22 Jul 2026	$45.35	2/2	$22,675	$22,292	63%	73%	+$3,250	-$33,123	66.2%	$-34,936 (vs do-nothing $-30,820)
$1020	10d	20 Jul 2026	$40.55	2/2	$24,330	$23,947	63%	73%	+$3,615	-$35,083	70.2%	$-36,896 (vs do-nothing $-32,780)
$1030	21d	31 Jul 2026	$68.25	2/2	$19,500	$19,117	62%	73%	+$2,905	-$27,543	55.1%	$-29,356 (vs do-nothing $-25,240)
$1025	14d	24 Jul 2026	$53.85	2/2	$23,079	$22,696	62%	72%	+$3,310	-$31,423	62.8%	$-33,236 (vs do-nothing $-29,120)
$1010	5d	15 Jul 2026	$28.50	1/2	$17,100	$18,052	62%	72%	+$2,988	-$19,746	39.5%	$-22,711 (vs do-nothing $-18,595)
$1015	7d	17 Jul 2026	$38.15	1/2	$16,350	$17,302	62%	72%	+$2,822	-$18,281	36.6%	$-21,246 (vs do-nothing $-17,130)
$1020	12d	22 Jul 2026	$47.30	2/2	$23,650	$23,267	62%	72%	+$3,286	-$33,733	67.5%	$-35,546 (vs do-nothing $-31,430)
$1022.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$54.80	2/2	$23,486	$23,103	62%	72%	+$3,315	-$31,733	63.5%	$-33,546 (vs do-nothing $-29,430)
$1025	21d	31 Jul 2026	$70.15	2/2	$20,043	$19,660	62%	72%	+$2,905	-$28,163	56.3%	$-29,976 (vs do-nothing $-25,860)
$1020	14d	24 Jul 2026	$56.50	2/2	$24,214	$23,832	61%	72%	+$3,634	-$31,893	63.8%	$-33,706 (vs do-nothing $-29,590)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 22:35