FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $985.76

BE SS: $1220.00  |  CC-SS: $1238.16  |  2 contracts (200 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-14 21:38

MU-LC970 @ $985.76   UNDERWATER $234.24 (19.2% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh)  |  BE SS: $1220.00  |  CC-SS: $1238.16 (banked floor $1,226.33)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)
SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)
HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$198,000(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref$29,395/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$479/mo
Unrealized P&L$-51,820fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$14,698/mo
HEDGE COVER
$479/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$29,395/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $50,000
ML VELOCITY
6.7 mo to earn back $198,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1238.16 (probe: $1240C 13d) brings only $2,008/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$2,449
Hole (after banked)
$49,371
was $51,820 · 5% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$1,570
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$1,238.16 → $1,226.33
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
2x $1155C 17 Jul 2026U13190865$7.85$1,5702026-07-11
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 76 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 33 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,250.62 (+27%) · daily UBB $1,218.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$128 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 2 contracts at $1080 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 85%, breach 15%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($14,698/mo); it brings $15,700/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $1040/3d for $31,700/mo, but breach risk rises to 27% (+12pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1260/3d (99% survival, $840/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $30,063 (60% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 1.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-51,920 and cuts bleed by $479/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 2 × $1080, 85% survival, $15,700/mo (E[net] $4,148/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 3d2 × $108085%$15,700$4,148
NEXT FRIDAY24 Jul 2026 · 10d2 × $109076%$15,180$3,291

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $4,148/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1080 (primary), 85% survival, breach 15%, $15,700/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1100 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 89% (breach 15% → 11%) for $4,800/mo less (31% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $985.76 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge2 × $126017 Jul3d27.8%99%2%$84$840-$14,860$0
Sell 2 × $1260 27.8% OTM over spot $985.76 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.69 mid)
= $84 credit for the 3d cycle → $840/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1260)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays ≤ $1260.69)
99%
EV / mo
+$669
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median  ·  68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without)  ·  ~0.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $228
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
1%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,711
Free roll-up
+$22/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,409 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $48.04/sh now → $33.98 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.56/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,26020 Jul 20264d left+$4.46/sh+$891
cycle +$975
66%
surv 52%
+$6,362 SAFE
cap gain +$58,182
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,26920 Jul 20264d left+$0.54/sh+$108
cycle +$192
68%
surv 55%
+$7,506 SAFE
cap gain +$59,326
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,40931 Jul 202616d left+$0.67/sh+$135
cycle +$219
80%
surv 76%
+$36,736 SAFE
cap gain +$88,556
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$840/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)-94%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)3% covered
Net income (after hedge)$361/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1260 is at/above CC-SS $1238.16: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-51,874
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $1,260.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,247.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,247-1,260.69
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,260.69
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,260.00 (3.3σ)$84$5,470+$57,290+$6,534
+2.5%$1,291.50 (3.6σ)$-6,216$5,741+$57,561+$6,534
+5%$1,323.00 (4.0σ)$-12,516$6,012+$57,832+$6,534
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1260): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $831 (+$52,651 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,083, the opportunity cost of earning $840/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield2 × $111017 Jul3d12.6%91%19%$900$9,000-$6,700$24,733
Sell 2 × $1110 12.6% OTM over spot $985.76 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $4.83 mid)
= $900 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1110)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $1114.83)
91%
EV / mo
+$4,132
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median  ·  69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without)  ·  ~4.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $13,144
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,086
Free roll-up
+$33/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,284 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $42.32/sh now → $29.93 mid-life (likely $27.48–$57.53)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.43/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $1,110 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $1,145 (overshoots $34.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,11020 Jul 20264d left+$6.59/sh+$1,317
cycle +$2,217
[+$492…+$1,950] · 85% credit
66%
surv 52%
-$23,686 NOT
cap gain +$28,134
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,16427 Jul 202612d left+$11.09/sh+$2,218
cycle +$3,118
[+$197…+$2,889] · 77% credit
73%
surv 65%
-$11,471 NOT
cap gain +$40,349
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,12420 Jul 20264d left+$0.43/sh+$86
cycle +$986
[-$1,161…+$649] · 45% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$21,947 NOT
cap gain +$29,873
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,26431 Jul 202616d left+$0.23/sh+$47
cycle +$947
[-$3,162…+$632] · 34% credit
81%
surv 78%
+$7,218 SAFE
cap gain +$59,038
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,28431 Jul 202616d left-$3.40/sh-$681
cycle +$219
[-$4,133…-$109] · 20% credit
83%
surv 80%
+$10,662 SAFE
cap gain +$62,482
budget: banked $900 debit $681 (76% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$219 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $9,948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,000/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)-39%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)31% covered
Net income (after hedge)$8,521/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1110 is $128 below CC-SS $1238.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$24,733
… as % of IC ($50,000)49.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)12.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-51,885
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.12/sh (~25% of the $4.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,114.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,098.90Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,099-1,114.83
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,114.83
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,110.00 (1.5σ)$900$-25,004+$26,816-$650
+2.5%$1,137.75 (1.8σ)$-4,650$-24,765+$27,055-$6,200
+5%$1,165.50 (2.1σ)$-10,200$-24,526+$27,294-$11,750
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (2.8σ)$-21,100$-24,058+$27,762-$22,650
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1110): -$24,733
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,901 (+$27,919 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,650, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal2 × $110017 Jul3d11.6%89%22%$1,090$10,900-$4,800$26,543
Sell 2 × $1100 11.6% OTM over spot $985.76 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $5.72 mid)
= $1,090 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,900/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1100)
89%
Breach risk
11%
POP (stays ≤ $1105.72)
90%
EV / mo
+$4,767
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo)  ·  75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without)  ·  ~5.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $12,571
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
16%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,843
Free roll-up
+$33/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,284 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $41.94/sh now → $29.66 mid-life (likely $29.24–$57.88)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $5.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.21/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 473 simulated challenges: the $1,100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $1,136 (overshoots $35.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,10020 Jul 20264d left+$6.70/sh+$1,341
cycle +$2,431
[+$481…+$1,933] · 84% credit
66%
surv 52%
-$25,559 NOT
cap gain +$26,261
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,15427 Jul 202612d left+$11.11/sh+$2,222
cycle +$3,312
[+$4…+$2,808] · 75% credit
73%
surv 65%
-$13,363 NOT
cap gain +$38,457
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,11420 Jul 20264d left+$0.55/sh+$111
cycle +$1,201
[-$1,261…+$587] · 42% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$23,818 NOT
cap gain +$28,002
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,25431 Jul 202616d left+$0.24/sh+$48
cycle +$1,138
[-$3,381…+$392] · 32% credit
81%
surv 78%
+$5,322 SAFE
cap gain +$57,142
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,28431 Jul 202616d left-$5.37/sh-$1,075
cycle +$15
[-$4,896…-$801] · 11% credit
84%
surv 81%
+$10,458 SAFE
cap gain +$62,278
budget: banked $1,090 debit $1,075 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $9,108/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$10,900/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)-26%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)37% covered
Net income (after hedge)$10,421/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1100 is $138 below CC-SS $1238.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$26,543
… as % of IC ($50,000)53.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)13.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-51,875
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.36/sh (~25% of the $5.45 collected) or spot ≥ $1,105.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,089.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,089-1,105.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,105.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,100.00 (1.4σ)$1,090$-26,900+$24,920-$460
+2.5%$1,127.50 (1.7σ)$-4,410$-26,663+$25,157-$5,960
+5%$1,155.00 (2.0σ)$-9,910$-26,427+$25,393-$11,460
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (2.8σ)$-22,910$-25,868+$25,952-$24,460
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1100): -$26,543
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,711 (+$26,109 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,460, the opportunity cost of earning $10,900/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal2 × $108017 Jul3d9.6%85%20%$1,570$15,700$30,063
Sell 2 × $1080 9.6% OTM over spot $985.76 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $8.35 mid)
= $1,570 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,700/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1080)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $1088.35)
87%
EV / mo
+$5,968
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.3] median  ·  72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without)  ·  ~7.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $16,984
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
20%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,255
Free roll-up
+$33/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,274 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $41.18/sh now → $29.12 mid-life (likely $30.08–$54.78)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $7.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.27/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 595 simulated challenges: the $1,080 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $1,114 (overshoots $34.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,08020 Jul 20264d left+$6.93/sh+$1,385
cycle +$2,955
[+$516…+$1,922] · 86% credit
66%
surv 52%
-$29,206 NOT
cap gain +$22,614
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,13427 Jul 202612d left+$11.14/sh+$2,228
cycle +$3,798
[+$251…+$2,633] · 78% credit
73%
surv 65%
-$17,049 NOT
cap gain +$34,771
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,09420 Jul 20264d left+$0.79/sh+$158
cycle +$1,728
[-$1,157…+$526] · 42% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$27,463 NOT
cap gain +$24,357
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,23431 Jul 202616d left+$0.23/sh+$46
cycle +$1,616
[-$2,998…+$196] · 28% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$1,629 SAFE
cap gain +$53,449
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,27431 Jul 202616d left-$6.89/sh-$1,378
cycle +$192
[-$4,880…-$1,332] · 6% credit
85%
surv 83%
+$8,549 SAFE
cap gain +$60,369
budget: banked $1,570 debit $1,378 (88% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$192 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,338/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$15,700/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)+7%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)53% covered
Net income (after hedge)$15,221/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1080 is $158 below CC-SS $1238.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$30,063
… as % of IC ($50,000)60.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)15.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-51,920
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.96/sh (~25% of the $7.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,088.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,080)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,069.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,069-1,088.35
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,088.35
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,080.00 (1.1σ)$1,570$-30,592+$21,228+$20
+2.5%$1,107.00 (1.4σ)$-3,830$-30,359+$21,461-$5,380
+5%$1,134.00 (1.8σ)$-9,230$-30,127+$21,693-$10,780
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (2.8σ)$-26,430$-29,388+$22,432-$27,980
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1080): -$30,063
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,231 (+$22,589 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,980, the opportunity cost of earning $15,700/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal2 × $104017 Jul3d5.5%73%55%$3,170$31,700+$16,000$36,463
Sell 2 × $1040 5.5% OTM over spot $985.76 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $16.43 mid)
= $3,170 credit for the 3d cycle → $31,700/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1040)
73%
Breach risk
27%
POP (stays ≤ $1056.42)
79%
EV / mo
+$8,169
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo)  ·  80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without)  ·  ~12.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $21,552
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
38%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,439
Free roll-up
+$33/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,304 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $39.65/sh now → $28.04 mid-life (likely $33.38–$58.19)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $15.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.19/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,154 simulated challenges: the $1,040 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $1,074 (overshoots $33.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,04020 Jul 20264d left+$7.33/sh+$1,467
cycle +$4,637
[+$340…+$1,739] · 84% credit
66%
surv 52%
-$35,869 NOT
cap gain +$15,951
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,09427 Jul 202612d left+$11.14/sh+$2,227
cycle +$5,397
[-$292…+$2,141] · 71% credit
73%
surv 65%
-$23,794 NOT
cap gain +$28,026
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,05420 Jul 20264d left+$1.22/sh+$244
cycle +$3,414
[-$1,373…+$268] · 30% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$34,121 NOT
cap gain +$17,699
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,19431 Jul 202616d left+$0.17/sh+$34
cycle +$3,204
[-$3,624…-$495] · 19% credit
82%
surv 79%
-$5,127 NOT
cap gain +$46,693
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,30431 Jul 202616d left-$15.48/sh-$3,096
cycle +$74
[-$7,886…-$3,951]
90%
surv 89%
+$14,689 SAFE
cap gain +$66,509
budget: banked $3,170 debit $3,096 (98% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,712/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$31,700/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)+116%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)108% covered
Net income (after hedge)$31,221/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1040 is $198 below CC-SS $1238.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$36,463
… as % of IC ($50,000)72.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)18.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-51,935
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.96/sh (~25% of the $15.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,056.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,040)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,029.60Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,030-1,056.42
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,056.42
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,040.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,170$-37,336+$14,484+$1,620
+2.5%$1,066.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,030$-37,112+$14,708-$3,580
+5%$1,092.00 (1.3σ)$-7,230$-36,888+$14,932-$8,780
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (2.8σ)$-32,830$-35,788+$16,032-$34,380
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1040): -$36,463
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,631 (+$16,189 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,380, the opportunity cost of earning $31,700/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 10d · E[net] $3,291/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1090 (primary), 76% survival, breach 24%, $15,180/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1135 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 24% → 17%) for $5,070/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1135 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.
MU  spot $985.76 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $126024 Jul10d27.8%95%10%$535$1,605-$13,575$0
Sell 1 × $1260 27.8% OTM over spot $985.76 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $6.03 mid)
= $535 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,605/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1260)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $1266.03)
95%
EV / mo
+$1,063
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo)  ·  65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without)  ·  ~0.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,516
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
7%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,430
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,289 @ 70% POP
59% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $84.32/sh now → $59.65 mid-life (likely $46.32–$77.49)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $5.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$54.30/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $1,260 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $1,295 (overshoots $35.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,28931 Jul 202612d left+$1.64/sh+$164
cycle +$699
[-$230…+$1,222] · 67% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$6,036 SAFE
cap gain +$57,856
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,26027 Jul 20268d left-$3.00/sh-$300
cycle +$235
[-$594…+$634] · 51% credit
66%
surv 52%
+$2,397 SAFE
cap gain +$54,217
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,605/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)-89%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)5% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,451/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1260 is at/above CC-SS $1238.16: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-25,978
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.34/sh (~25% of the $5.35 collected) or spot ≥ $1,266.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,247.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,247-1,266.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,266.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,260.00 (1.8σ)$535$2,696+$54,516+$3,760
+2.5%$1,291.50 (2.0σ)$-2,615$2,967+$54,787+$3,760
+5%$1,323.00 (2.2σ)$-5,765$3,238+$55,058+$3,760
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1260): -$0
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$1,041
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-210 (+$51,610 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,041, the opportunity cost of earning $1,605/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield2 × $120524 Jul10d22.2%90%20%$1,770$5,310-$9,870$4,863
Sell 2 × $1205 22.2% OTM over spot $985.76 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $9.75 mid)
= $1,770 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,310/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1205)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1214.75)
91%
EV / mo
+$2,251
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.3] median  ·  69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without)  ·  ~1.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,067
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$9,639
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,264 @ 73% POP
65% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $80.63/sh now → $57.05 mid-life (likely $44.29–$79.55)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $8.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$48.20/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 386 simulated challenges: the $1,205 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $1,238 (overshoots $33.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,23431 Jul 202612d left+$2.96/sh+$592
cycle +$2,362
[-$552…+$2,595] · 64% credit
71%
surv 59%
+$2,375 SAFE
cap gain +$54,195
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,23931 Jul 202612d left+$1.08/sh+$216
cycle +$1,986
[-$1,042…+$2,198] · 56% credit
71%
surv 60%
+$3,041 SAFE
cap gain +$54,861
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,20527 Jul 20268d left-$1.41/sh-$282
cycle +$1,488
[-$1,086…+$1,406] · 49% credit
66%
surv 53%
-$4,598 NOT
cap gain +$47,222
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,26431 Jul 202612d left-$7.81/sh-$1,563
cycle +$207
[-$3,276…+$164] · 26% credit
73%
surv 65%
+$6,478 SAFE
cap gain +$58,298
budget: banked $1,770 debit $1,563 (88% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$207 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $24,616/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,310/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)-64%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)18% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,831/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1205 is $33 below CC-SS $1238.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,863
… as % of IC ($50,000)9.7%
… as % of ML ($198,000)2.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-52,000
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.21/sh (~25% of the $8.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,214.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,192.95Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,193-1,214.75
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,214.75
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,205.00 (1.4σ)$1,770$-4,317+$47,503+$220
+2.5%$1,235.12 (1.6σ)$-4,255$-4,057+$47,763-$2,780
+5%$1,265.25 (1.8σ)$-10,280$-3,798+$48,022-$2,780
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1205): -$4,863
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,031 (+$47,789 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,780, the opportunity cost of earning $5,310/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean2 × $113524 Jul10d15.1%83%36%$3,370$10,110-$5,070$17,263
Sell 2 × $1135 15.1% OTM over spot $985.76 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $18.02 mid)
= $3,370 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,110/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1135)
83%
Breach risk
17%
POP (stays ≤ $1153.03)
85%
EV / mo
+$3,042
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.3] median  ·  72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without)  ·  ~3.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $12,612
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
25%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$7,376
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,229 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $75.95/sh now → $53.73 mid-life (likely $50.11–$79.80)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $16.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$36.88/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 764 simulated challenges: the $1,135 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $1,167 (overshoots $32.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,15931 Jul 202612d left+$6.09/sh+$1,219
cycle +$4,589
[-$252…+$2,203] · 68% credit
70%
surv 58%
-$11,043 NOT
cap gain +$40,777
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,13527 Jul 20268d left+$0.42/sh+$85
cycle +$3,455
[-$1,096…+$902] · 42% credit
66%
surv 53%
-$17,234 NOT
cap gain +$34,586
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,17431 Jul 202612d left+$0.04/sh+$9
cycle +$3,379
[-$1,665…+$913] · 36% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$9,125 NOT
cap gain +$42,695
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,22931 Jul 202612d left-$16.84/sh-$3,369
cycle +$1
[-$5,970…-$2,924] · 4% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$1,029 NOT
cap gain +$50,791
budget: banked $3,370 debit $3,369 (100% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $18,445/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$10,110/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)-31%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,631/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1135 is $103 below CC-SS $1238.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$17,263
… as % of IC ($50,000)34.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)8.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-52,055
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.21/sh (~25% of the $16.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,153.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,135)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,123.65Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,124-1,153.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,153.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,135.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,370$-17,319+$34,501+$1,820
+2.5%$1,163.38 (1.2σ)$-2,305$-17,075+$34,745-$3,855
+5%$1,191.75 (1.3σ)$-7,980$-16,831+$34,989-$9,530
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.5σ)$-13,630$-16,588+$35,232-$15,180
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1135): -$17,263
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,431 (+$35,389 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,180, the opportunity cost of earning $10,110/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal2 × $109024 Jul10d10.6%76%38%$5,060$15,180$24,573
Sell 2 × $1090 10.6% OTM over spot $985.76 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $26.85 mid)
= $5,060 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,180/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1090)
76%
Breach risk
24%
POP (stays ≤ $1116.85)
80%
EV / mo
+$3,379
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.5-1.8] median  ·  75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without)  ·  ~4.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $14,613
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
38%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,260
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,219 @ 81% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $72.94/sh now → $51.60 mid-life (likely $57.53–$83.15)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $25.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.30/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,152 simulated challenges: the $1,090 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $1,122 (overshoots $31.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,11431 Jul 202612d left+$6.87/sh+$1,373
cycle +$6,433
[-$386…+$1,319] · 62% credit
70%
surv 59%
-$18,586 NOT
cap gain +$33,234
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,09027 Jul 20268d left+$1.49/sh+$297
cycle +$5,357
[-$1,152…+$274] · 32% credit
66%
surv 53%
-$24,718 NOT
cap gain +$27,102
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,12931 Jul 202612d left+$0.85/sh+$170
cycle +$5,230
[-$1,831…+$6] · 25% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$16,660 NOT
cap gain +$35,160
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,21931 Jul 202612d left-$24.71/sh-$4,943
cycle +$117
[-$8,458…-$5,665]
81%
surv 77%
-$2,999 NOT
cap gain +$48,821
budget: banked $5,060 debit $4,943 (98% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,445/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$15,180/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)+3%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$14,701/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1090 is $148 below CC-SS $1238.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$24,573
… as % of IC ($50,000)49.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)12.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-52,130
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $6.33/sh (~25% of the $25.30 collected) or spot ≥ $1,116.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,090)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,079.10Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,079-1,116.85
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,116.85
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,090.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,060$-25,016+$26,804+$3,510
+2.5%$1,117.25 (≤1σ, normal week)$-390$-24,781+$27,039-$1,940
+5%$1,144.50 (1.0σ)$-5,840$-24,547+$27,273-$7,390
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.5σ)$-20,940$-23,898+$27,922-$22,490
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1090): -$24,573
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,741 (+$28,079 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,490, the opportunity cost of earning $15,180/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal2 × $101024 Jul10d2.5%59%86%$10,200$30,600+$15,420$35,433
Sell 2 × $1010 2.5% OTM over spot $985.76 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $53.38 mid)
= $10,200 credit for the 10d cycle → $30,600/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1010)
59%
Breach risk
41%
POP (stays ≤ $1063.38)
71%
EV / mo
+$5,823
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.5] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo)  ·  80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without)  ·  ~11.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $20,053
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
69%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$637
Free roll-up
+$10/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,244 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $67.59/sh now → $47.81 mid-life (likely $65.36–$89.40)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $51.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$3.19/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,068 simulated challenges: the $1,010 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $1,043 (overshoots $32.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (2 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,02931 Jul 202612d left+$10.38/sh+$2,075
cycle +$12,275
[-$131…+$974] · 71% credit
70%
surv 58%
-$30,475 NOT
cap gain +$21,345
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,01027 Jul 20268d left+$3.16/sh+$631
cycle +$10,831
[-$1,276…-$293] · 16% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$35,932 NOT
cap gain +$15,888
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,01427 Jul 20268d left+$1.01/sh+$203
cycle +$10,403
[-$1,826…-$766] · 9% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$35,477 NOT
cap gain +$16,343
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,05431 Jul 202612d left+$0.68/sh+$135
cycle +$10,335
[-$2,777…-$1,176] · 7% credit
72%
surv 63%
-$27,200 NOT
cap gain +$24,620
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,24431 Jul 202612d left-$38.02/sh-$7,605
cycle +$2,595
[-$13,733…-$10,073]
91%
surv 90%
+$4,694 SAFE
cap gain +$56,514
budget: banked $10,200 debit $7,605 (75% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,595 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,896/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$30,600/mo
vs 50% target ($14,698/mo)+108%
vs normal income ($29,395/mo)104% covered
Net income (after hedge)$30,121/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1010 is $228 below CC-SS $1238.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$35,433
… as % of IC ($50,000)70.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)17.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)$-52,295
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $12.75/sh (~25% of the $51.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,063.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,010)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,218.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $999.90Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,000-1,063.38
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,063.38
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,010.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$10,200$-36,564+$15,256+$8,650
+2.5%$1,035.25 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,150$-36,346+$15,474+$3,600
+5%$1,060.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$100$-36,129+$15,691-$1,450
SS (= V-bounce)$1,220.00 (1.5σ)$-31,800$-34,758+$17,062-$33,350
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1238.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,820
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,651
− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1010): -$35,433
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,601 (+$17,219 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,350, the opportunity cost of earning $30,600/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (145 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 145 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.043 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$52,651 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,251

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10803d17 Jul 2026$7.852/2$15,700$15,22185%87%+$5,968-$30,06360.1%$-29,231 (vs do-nothing $-27,980)
$10753d17 Jul 2026$8.652/2$17,300$16,82184%86%+$6,391-$30,90361.8%$-30,071 (vs do-nothing $-28,820)
$10703d17 Jul 2026$9.452/2$18,900$18,42183%85%+$6,682-$31,74363.5%$-30,911 (vs do-nothing $-29,660)
$10653d17 Jul 2026$10.252/2$20,500$20,02181%84%+$6,828-$32,58365.2%$-31,751 (vs do-nothing $-30,500)
$10603d17 Jul 2026$11.052/2$22,100$21,62180%83%+$6,817-$33,42366.8%$-32,591 (vs do-nothing $-31,340)
$10553d17 Jul 2026$12.302/2$24,600$24,12178%82%+$7,538-$34,17368.3%$-33,341 (vs do-nothing $-32,090)
$10503d17 Jul 2026$13.402/2$26,800$26,32177%81%+$7,778-$34,95369.9%$-34,121 (vs do-nothing $-32,870)
$10758d22 Jul 2026$19.652/2$14,738$14,25976%81%+$3,475-$28,70357.4%$-27,871 (vs do-nothing $-26,620)
$10606d20 Jul 2026$14.952/2$14,950$14,47176%80%+$2,578-$32,64365.3%$-31,811 (vs do-nothing $-30,560)
$109010d24 Jul 2026$25.302/2$15,180$14,70176%80%+$3,379-$24,57349.1%$-23,741 (vs do-nothing $-22,490)
$10453d17 Jul 2026$14.502/2$29,000$28,52175%80%+$7,826-$35,73371.5%$-34,901 (vs do-nothing $-33,650)
$108510d24 Jul 2026$26.102/2$15,660$15,18175%80%+$3,191-$25,41350.8%$-24,581 (vs do-nothing $-23,330)
$10556d20 Jul 2026$16.302/2$16,300$15,82175%79%+$2,851-$33,37366.7%$-32,541 (vs do-nothing $-31,290)
Show 132 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 132.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10708d22 Jul 2026$20.852/2$15,638$15,15975%79%+$2,678-$29,46358.9%$-28,631 (vs do-nothing $-27,380)
$108010d24 Jul 2026$27.752/2$16,650$16,17174%79%+$3,357-$26,08352.2%$-25,251 (vs do-nothing $-24,000)
$10658d22 Jul 2026$22.102/2$16,575$16,09674%79%+$3,026-$30,21360.4%$-29,381 (vs do-nothing $-28,130)
$10403d17 Jul 2026$15.851/2$15,850$17,69673%79%+$4,085-$18,23136.5%$-18,441 (vs do-nothing $-17,190)
$107510d24 Jul 2026$29.202/2$17,520$17,04173%78%+$3,513-$26,79353.6%$-25,961 (vs do-nothing $-24,710)
$10608d22 Jul 2026$23.102/2$17,325$16,84672%78%+$2,430-$31,01362.0%$-30,181 (vs do-nothing $-28,930)
$10506d20 Jul 2026$17.152/2$17,150$16,67172%77%+$97-$34,20368.4%$-33,371 (vs do-nothing $-32,120)
$107010d24 Jul 2026$30.452/2$18,270$17,79172%78%+$3,529-$27,54355.1%$-26,711 (vs do-nothing $-25,460)
$10353d17 Jul 2026$17.201/2$17,200$19,04672%77%+$4,149-$18,59637.2%$-18,806 (vs do-nothing $-17,555)
$10558d22 Jul 2026$24.302/2$18,225$17,74671%78%+$2,872-$31,77363.5%$-30,941 (vs do-nothing $-29,690)
$108517d31 Jul 2026$42.402/2$14,965$14,48671%78%+$2,764-$22,15344.3%$-21,321 (vs do-nothing $-20,070)
$106510d24 Jul 2026$31.552/2$18,930$18,45171%77%+$3,278-$28,32356.6%$-27,491 (vs do-nothing $-26,240)
$10456d20 Jul 2026$18.402/2$18,400$17,92171%76%+$49-$34,95369.9%$-34,121 (vs do-nothing $-32,870)
$106010d24 Jul 2026$32.952/2$19,770$19,29171%77%+$4,979-$29,04358.1%$-28,211 (vs do-nothing $-26,960)
$108017d31 Jul 2026$43.902/2$15,494$15,01570%77%+$2,807-$22,85345.7%$-22,021 (vs do-nothing $-20,770)
$106513d27 Jul 2026$32.752/2$15,115$14,63770%77%+$1,710-$28,08356.2%$-27,251 (vs do-nothing $-26,000)
$10508d22 Jul 2026$25.752/2$19,312$18,83470%76%+$2,444-$32,48365.0%$-31,651 (vs do-nothing $-30,400)
$10303d17 Jul 2026$18.701/2$18,700$20,54670%76%+$4,251-$18,94637.9%$-19,156 (vs do-nothing $-17,905)
$107517d31 Jul 2026$45.202/2$15,953$15,47470%77%+$2,763-$23,59347.2%$-22,761 (vs do-nothing $-21,510)
$10406d20 Jul 2026$20.052/2$20,050$19,57169%75%+$325-$35,62371.2%$-34,791 (vs do-nothing $-33,540)
$106013d27 Jul 2026$34.902/2$16,108$15,62969%76%+$2,043-$28,65357.3%$-27,821 (vs do-nothing $-26,570)
$105510d24 Jul 2026$34.752/2$20,850$20,37169%76%+$3,863-$29,68359.4%$-28,851 (vs do-nothing $-27,600)
$107017d31 Jul 2026$46.052/2$16,253$15,77469%76%+$2,543-$24,42348.8%$-23,591 (vs do-nothing $-22,340)
$10458d22 Jul 2026$27.202/2$20,400$19,92169%76%+$2,470-$33,19366.4%$-32,361 (vs do-nothing $-31,110)
$105010d24 Jul 2026$36.252/2$21,750$21,27169%76%+$5,273-$30,38360.8%$-29,551 (vs do-nothing $-28,300)
$105513d27 Jul 2026$35.502/2$16,385$15,90668%75%+$1,634-$29,53359.1%$-28,701 (vs do-nothing $-27,450)
$106517d31 Jul 2026$48.202/2$17,012$16,53368%76%+$2,765-$24,99350.0%$-24,161 (vs do-nothing $-22,910)
$10356d20 Jul 2026$21.352/2$21,350$20,87168%74%+$171-$36,36372.7%$-35,531 (vs do-nothing $-34,280)
$10253d17 Jul 2026$20.251/2$20,250$22,09668%75%+$4,287-$19,29138.6%$-19,501 (vs do-nothing $-18,250)
$10408d22 Jul 2026$29.102/2$21,825$21,34668%75%+$2,781-$33,81367.6%$-32,981 (vs do-nothing $-31,730)
$104510d24 Jul 2026$37.552/2$22,530$22,05167%76%+$5,155-$31,12362.2%$-30,291 (vs do-nothing $-29,040)
$106017d31 Jul 2026$49.752/2$17,559$17,08067%75%+$2,757-$25,68351.4%$-24,851 (vs do-nothing $-23,600)
$105013d27 Jul 2026$38.202/2$17,631$17,15267%75%+$2,166-$29,99360.0%$-29,161 (vs do-nothing $-27,910)
$105517d31 Jul 2026$50.902/2$17,965$17,48667%75%+$2,591-$26,45352.9%$-25,621 (vs do-nothing $-24,370)
$10306d20 Jul 2026$22.802/2$22,800$22,32166%73%+$86-$37,07374.1%$-36,241 (vs do-nothing $-34,990)
$104010d24 Jul 2026$38.852/2$23,310$22,83166%75%+$4,999-$31,86363.7%$-31,031 (vs do-nothing $-29,780)
$104513d27 Jul 2026$38.802/2$17,908$17,42966%74%+$1,733-$30,87361.7%$-30,041 (vs do-nothing $-28,790)
$10358d22 Jul 2026$30.552/2$22,912$22,43466%74%+$2,701-$34,52369.0%$-33,691 (vs do-nothing $-32,440)
$105017d31 Jul 2026$53.302/2$18,812$18,33366%74%+$2,848-$26,97353.9%$-26,141 (vs do-nothing $-24,890)
$104013d27 Jul 2026$41.102/2$18,969$18,49165%74%+$2,040-$31,41362.8%$-30,581 (vs do-nothing $-29,330)
$103510d24 Jul 2026$41.002/2$24,600$24,12165%74%+$5,313-$32,43364.9%$-31,601 (vs do-nothing $-30,350)
$10308d22 Jul 2026$31.702/2$23,775$23,29665%74%+$2,341-$35,29370.6%$-34,461 (vs do-nothing $-33,210)
$10256d20 Jul 2026$24.402/2$24,400$23,92165%72%+$66-$37,75375.5%$-36,921 (vs do-nothing $-35,670)
$104517d31 Jul 2026$54.552/2$19,253$18,77465%74%+$2,681-$27,72355.4%$-26,891 (vs do-nothing $-25,640)
$103513d27 Jul 2026$43.052/2$19,869$19,39164%73%+$2,145-$32,02364.0%$-31,191 (vs do-nothing $-29,940)
$103010d24 Jul 2026$42.552/2$25,530$25,05164%74%+$5,228-$33,12366.2%$-32,291 (vs do-nothing $-31,040)
$104017d31 Jul 2026$56.452/2$19,924$19,44564%73%+$2,724-$28,34356.7%$-27,511 (vs do-nothing $-26,260)
$10153d17 Jul 2026$23.551/2$23,550$25,39664%73%+$4,196-$19,96139.9%$-20,171 (vs do-nothing $-18,920)
$10258d22 Jul 2026$33.752/2$25,312$24,83464%73%+$2,600-$35,88371.8%$-35,051 (vs do-nothing $-33,800)
$10206d20 Jul 2026$25.502/2$25,500$25,02163%71%$-541-$38,53377.1%$-37,701 (vs do-nothing $-36,450)
$103013d27 Jul 2026$45.152/2$20,838$20,36063%73%+$2,280-$32,60365.2%$-31,771 (vs do-nothing $-30,520)
$103517d31 Jul 2026$57.502/2$20,294$19,81563%73%+$2,449-$29,13358.3%$-28,301 (vs do-nothing $-27,050)
$102510d24 Jul 2026$44.252/2$26,550$26,07163%73%+$5,192-$33,78367.6%$-32,951 (vs do-nothing $-31,700)
$10156d20 Jul 2026$27.402/2$27,400$26,92162%72%+$2,185-$39,15378.3%$-38,321 (vs do-nothing $-37,070)
$10208d22 Jul 2026$35.402/2$26,550$26,07162%72%+$2,502-$36,55373.1%$-35,721 (vs do-nothing $-34,470)
$1022.5010d24 Jul 2026$45.402/2$27,240$26,76162%73%+$5,339-$34,05368.1%$-33,221 (vs do-nothing $-31,970)
$103017d31 Jul 2026$59.802/2$21,106$20,62762%72%+$2,596-$29,67359.3%$-28,841 (vs do-nothing $-27,590)
$102513d27 Jul 2026$47.452/2$21,900$21,42162%72%+$2,472-$33,14366.3%$-32,311 (vs do-nothing $-31,060)
$10103d17 Jul 2026$25.301/2$25,300$27,14662%72%+$4,065-$20,28640.6%$-20,496 (vs do-nothing $-19,245)
$102010d24 Jul 2026$45.852/2$27,510$27,03162%73%+$5,055-$34,46368.9%$-33,631 (vs do-nothing $-32,380)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-14 21:38