FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $907.44

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1250.24 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $907.44 UNDERWATER $312.56 (25.6% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1250.24 (banked floor $1,238.40) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$30,743/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$460/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-70,355	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,372/mo

HEDGE COVER
$460/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$30,743/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
6.4 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1250.24 (probe: $1250C 13d) brings only $1,754/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$67,906

was $70,355 · 3% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,610

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,250.24 → $1,238.40

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1060C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$8.05	$1,610	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 69 (live) · RSI 63 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 16 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,239.23 (+37%) · daily UBB $1,226.87 · 1-wk expected move ±$126 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1017.50 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($15,372/mo); it brings $15,450/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $945/8d for $31,088/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1280/8d (99% survival, $469/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $42,427 (85% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 1.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-70,470 and cuts bleed by $460/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 2 × $1017.50, 79% survival, $15,450/mo (E[net] $3,847/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 8d	2 × $1017.50	79%	$15,450	$3,847

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $3,847/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1017.50 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $15,450/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1055 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $4,950/mo less (32% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1055 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $907.44 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1280

24 Jul

41.1%

99%

$125

$469

-$14,981

Sell 1 × $1280 41.1% OTM over spot $907.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.62 mid)

= $125 credit for the 8d cycle → $469/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1280)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1281.62)

99%

EV / mo

+$364

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,778

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,907

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,318 @ 71% POP

60% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $85.25/sh now → $60.32 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$59.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,280	27 Jul 2026	7d left	-$3.56/sh	-$356 cycle -$231	67% surv 52%	+$788 SAFE cap gain +$71,143
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,318	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.18/sh	+$18 cycle +$143	71% surv 60%	+$5,189 SAFE cap gain +$75,544

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$469/mo
vs 50% target ($15,372/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($30,743/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$500/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1280 is at/above CC-SS $1250.24: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,214

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,281.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,267.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,267-1,281.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,281.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,280.00 (2.8σ)	$125	$1,144	+$71,499	+$5,945
+2.5%	$1,312.00 (3.0σ)	$-3,075	$1,375	+$71,730	+$5,945
+5%	$1,344.00 (3.2σ)	$-6,275	$1,605	+$71,960	+$5,945

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1250.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,355

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,028

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1280): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$2,844

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,171 (+$68,184 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,844, the opportunity cost of earning $469/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1095

24 Jul

20.7%

90%

20%

$1,800

$6,750

-$8,700

$29,247

Sell 2 × $1095 20.7% OTM over spot $907.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $9.53 mid)

= $1,800 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,750/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1095)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1104.53)

91%

EV / mo

+$3,399

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,018

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,520

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,168 @ 75% POP

68% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $72.93/sh now → $51.60 mid-life (likely $46.20–$79.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$42.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 464 simulated challenges: the $1,095 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $1,133 (overshoots $37.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,095	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$1.78/sh	+$355 cycle +$2,155 [-$352…+$1,705] · 63% credit	67% surv 52%	-$29,337 NOT cap gain +$41,018
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,133	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$4.06/sh	+$813 cycle +$2,613 [-$725…+$2,109] · 61% credit	72% surv 61%	-$21,098 NOT cap gain +$49,257
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,098	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.73/sh	+$145 cycle +$1,945 [-$592…+$1,460] · 58% credit	68% surv 53%	-$29,017 NOT cap gain +$41,338
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,143	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$1.29/sh	+$259 cycle +$2,059 [-$1,383…+$1,476] · 49% credit	73% surv 63%	-$19,580 NOT cap gain +$50,775
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,168	31 Jul 2026	11d left	-$7.47/sh	-$1,493 cycle +$307 [-$3,585…-$409] · 20% credit	75% surv 68%	-$16,152 NOT cap gain +$54,203
budget: banked $1,800 debit $1,493 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$307 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $24,071/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,750/mo
vs 50% target ($15,372/mo)	-56%
vs normal income ($30,743/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,290/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1095 is $155 below CC-SS $1250.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$29,247
… as % of IC ($50,000)	58.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	14.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,460

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.25/sh (~25% of the $9.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,104.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,095)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,084.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,084-1,104.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,104.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,095.00 (1.4σ)	$1,800	$-29,693	+$40,662	+$1,440
+2.5%	$1,122.38 (1.6σ)	$-3,675	$-29,495	+$40,860	-$4,035
+5%	$1,149.75 (1.8σ)	$-9,150	$-29,298	+$41,057	-$9,510
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.3σ)	$-23,200	$-28,793	+$41,562	-$23,560

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1250.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,355

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,028

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1095): -$29,247

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,575 (+$41,780 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,560, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $1055

24 Jul

16.3%

85%

30%

$2,800

$10,500

-$4,950

$36,247

Sell 2 × $1055 16.3% OTM over spot $907.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $14.50 mid)

= $2,800 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1055)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $1069.50)

87%

EV / mo

+$4,543

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,717

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

24%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,143

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,148 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $70.27/sh now → $49.71 mid-life (likely $47.09–$76.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $14.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 722 simulated challenges: the $1,055 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $1,089 (overshoots $33.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,088	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$6.93/sh	+$1,386 cycle +$4,186 [-$63…+$2,417] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%	-$28,848 NOT cap gain +$41,507
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,055	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$2.72/sh	+$543 cycle +$3,343 [-$258…+$1,649] · 66% credit	67% surv 53%	-$36,437 NOT cap gain +$33,918
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,058	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$1.67/sh	+$333 cycle +$3,133 [-$499…+$1,406] · 57% credit	68% surv 53%	-$36,117 NOT cap gain +$34,238
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,103	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$1.87/sh	+$375 cycle +$3,175 [-$1,267…+$1,198] · 41% credit	73% surv 63%	-$26,752 NOT cap gain +$43,603
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,148	31 Jul 2026	11d left	-$12.40/sh	-$2,480 cycle +$320 [-$4,777…-$1,994] · 8% credit	78% surv 72%	-$20,282 NOT cap gain +$50,073
budget: banked $2,800 debit $2,480 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$320 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $20,353/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,500/mo
vs 50% target ($15,372/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($30,743/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,040/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1055 is $195 below CC-SS $1250.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,247
… as % of IC ($50,000)	72.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	18.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,455

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.50/sh (~25% of the $14.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,069.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,055)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,044.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,044-1,069.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,069.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,055.00 (1.1σ)	$2,800	$-36,981	+$33,374	+$2,440
+2.5%	$1,081.38 (1.3σ)	$-2,475	$-36,791	+$33,564	-$2,835
+5%	$1,107.75 (1.5σ)	$-7,750	$-36,601	+$33,754	-$8,110
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.3σ)	$-30,200	$-35,793	+$34,562	-$30,560

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1250.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,355

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,028

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1055): -$36,247

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,575 (+$34,780 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,560, the opportunity cost of earning $10,500/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1017.50

24 Jul

12.1%

79%

32%

$4,120

$15,450

—

$42,427

Sell 2 × $1017.50 12.1% OTM over spot $907.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $21.18 mid)

= $4,120 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,450/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1017.50)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $1038.67)

83%

EV / mo

+$5,469

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,990

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,469

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,145 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $67.77/sh now → $47.95 mid-life (likely $51.09–$79.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$27.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 968 simulated challenges: the $1,018 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $1,052 (overshoots $34.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,050	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$7.37/sh	+$1,474 cycle +$5,594 [-$273…+$1,679] · 68% credit	71% surv 61%	-$35,210 NOT cap gain +$35,145
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,018	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$3.53/sh	+$705 cycle +$4,825 [-$338…+$1,152] · 60% credit	67% surv 53%	-$42,725 NOT cap gain +$27,630
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,020	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$2.48/sh	+$496 cycle +$4,616 [-$586…+$921] · 52% credit	68% surv 53%	-$42,404 NOT cap gain +$27,951
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,070	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.36/sh	+$73 cycle +$4,193 [-$1,982…+$63] · 26% credit	74% surv 65%	-$32,468 NOT cap gain +$37,887
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,145	31 Jul 2026	11d left	-$20.54/sh	-$4,108 cycle +$12 [-$7,425…-$4,455]	82% surv 78%	-$21,108 NOT cap gain +$49,247
budget: banked $4,120 debit $4,108 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,450/mo
vs 50% target ($15,372/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($30,743/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,990/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1017.50 is $233 below CC-SS $1250.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$42,427
… as % of IC ($50,000)	84.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	21.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,470

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.15/sh (~25% of the $20.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,038.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,018)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,007.33	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,007-1,038.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,038.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,017.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,120	$-43,431	+$26,924	+$3,760
+2.5%	$1,042.94 (1.0σ)	$-968	$-43,247	+$27,108	-$1,328
+5%	$1,068.38 (1.2σ)	$-6,055	$-43,064	+$27,291	-$6,415
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.3σ)	$-36,380	$-41,973	+$28,382	-$36,740

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1250.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,355

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,028

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1017.50): -$42,427

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,755 (+$28,600 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,740, the opportunity cost of earning $15,450/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $945

24 Jul

4.1%

63%

78%

$8,290

$31,088

+$15,638

$52,757

Sell 2 × $945 4.1% OTM over spot $907.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $42.62 mid)

= $8,290 credit for the 8d cycle → $31,088/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $945)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $987.62)

73%

EV / mo

+$6,619

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~13.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $29,602

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

61%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$616

Free roll-up

+$18/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,158 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $62.94/sh now → $44.53 mid-life (likely $58.16–$81.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $41.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,842 simulated challenges: the $945 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $977 (overshoots $31.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$973	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$10.02/sh	+$2,004 cycle +$10,294 [-$67…+$1,184] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%	-$46,569 NOT cap gain +$23,786
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$945	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$4.91/sh	+$981 cycle +$9,271 [-$342…+$535] · 49% credit	67% surv 53%	-$53,301 NOT cap gain +$17,054
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$953	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$1.07/sh	+$213 cycle +$8,503 [-$1,308…-$341] · 17% credit	68% surv 55%	-$52,503 NOT cap gain +$17,852
Max even-money escape in the band	~$998	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$1.06/sh	+$213 cycle +$8,503 [-$2,286…-$760] · 13% credit	74% surv 65%	-$43,179 NOT cap gain +$27,176
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,158	31 Jul 2026	11d left	-$32.69/sh	-$6,538 cycle +$1,752 [-$11,683…-$8,427]	90% surv 89%	-$16,779 NOT cap gain +$53,576
budget: banked $8,290 debit $6,538 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,752 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $6,457/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$31,088/mo
vs 50% target ($15,372/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($30,743/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30,628/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $945 is $305 below CC-SS $1250.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$52,757
… as % of IC ($50,000)	105.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	26.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,590

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.36/sh (~25% of the $41.45 collected) or spot ≥ $987.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $945)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,226.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $935.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $936-987.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $987.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$945.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,290	$-54,283	+$16,072	+$7,930
+2.5%	$968.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,565	$-54,112	+$16,243	+$3,205
+5%	$992.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,160	$-53,942	+$16,413	-$1,520
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.3σ)	$-46,710	$-52,303	+$18,052	-$47,070

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1250.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,355

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,028

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $945): -$52,757

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,085 (+$18,270 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,070, the opportunity cost of earning $31,088/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (146 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 146 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.036 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$71,028 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,015

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$985	4d	20 Jul 2026	$10.30	2/2	$15,450	$14,990	82%	85%	+$6,632	-$50,987	102.0%	$-50,315 (vs do-nothing $-45,300)
$980	4d	20 Jul 2026	$11.75	2/2	$17,625	$17,165	81%	84%	+$7,721	-$51,697	103.4%	$-51,025 (vs do-nothing $-46,010)
$1017.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$20.60	2/2	$15,450	$14,990	79%	83%	+$5,469	-$42,427	84.9%	$-41,755 (vs do-nothing $-36,740)
$975	4d	20 Jul 2026	$12.60	2/2	$18,900	$18,440	79%	83%	+$7,794	-$52,527	105.1%	$-51,855 (vs do-nothing $-46,840)
$1015	8d	24 Jul 2026	$20.75	2/2	$15,562	$15,103	79%	83%	+$5,244	-$42,897	85.8%	$-42,225 (vs do-nothing $-37,210)
$1012.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$21.65	2/2	$16,238	$15,778	78%	82%	+$5,572	-$43,217	86.4%	$-42,545 (vs do-nothing $-37,530)
$1010	8d	24 Jul 2026	$22.15	2/2	$16,612	$16,153	78%	82%	+$5,589	-$43,617	87.2%	$-42,945 (vs do-nothing $-37,930)
$970	4d	20 Jul 2026	$13.85	2/2	$20,775	$20,315	78%	82%	+$8,340	-$53,277	106.6%	$-52,605 (vs do-nothing $-47,590)
$1007.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$22.75	2/2	$17,062	$16,603	77%	82%	+$5,672	-$43,997	88.0%	$-43,325 (vs do-nothing $-38,310)
$990	6d	22 Jul 2026	$16.25	2/2	$16,250	$15,790	77%	81%	+$3,824	-$48,797	97.6%	$-48,125 (vs do-nothing $-43,110)
$1005	8d	24 Jul 2026	$22.95	2/2	$17,212	$16,753	77%	81%	+$5,444	-$44,457	88.9%	$-43,785 (vs do-nothing $-38,770)
$985	6d	22 Jul 2026	$17.40	2/2	$17,400	$16,940	76%	81%	+$4,897	-$49,567	99.1%	$-48,895 (vs do-nothing $-43,880)
$1002.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$23.90	2/2	$17,925	$17,465	76%	81%	+$5,768	-$44,767	89.5%	$-44,095 (vs do-nothing $-39,080)

Show 133 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 133.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$965	4d	20 Jul 2026	$15.10	2/2	$22,650	$22,190	76%	81%	+$8,750	-$54,027	108.1%	$-53,355 (vs do-nothing $-48,340)
$1000	8d	24 Jul 2026	$24.35	2/2	$18,262	$17,803	76%	81%	+$5,706	-$45,177	90.4%	$-44,505 (vs do-nothing $-39,490)
$980	6d	22 Jul 2026	$19.35	2/2	$19,350	$18,890	75%	80%	+$5,774	-$50,177	100.4%	$-49,505 (vs do-nothing $-44,490)
$995	8d	24 Jul 2026	$25.75	2/2	$19,312	$18,853	75%	80%	+$5,924	-$45,897	91.8%	$-45,225 (vs do-nothing $-40,210)
$960	4d	20 Jul 2026	$16.25	2/2	$24,375	$23,915	74%	80%	+$8,866	-$54,797	109.6%	$-54,125 (vs do-nothing $-49,110)
$990	8d	24 Jul 2026	$26.75	2/2	$20,062	$19,603	74%	79%	+$5,796	-$46,697	93.4%	$-46,025 (vs do-nothing $-41,010)
$975	6d	22 Jul 2026	$20.00	2/2	$20,000	$19,540	74%	79%	+$5,275	-$51,047	102.1%	$-50,375 (vs do-nothing $-45,360)
$1010	15d	31 Jul 2026	$39.30	2/2	$15,720	$15,260	73%	79%	+$4,099	-$40,187	80.4%	$-39,515 (vs do-nothing $-34,500)
$985	8d	24 Jul 2026	$28.40	2/2	$21,300	$20,840	73%	79%	+$6,109	-$47,367	94.7%	$-46,695 (vs do-nothing $-41,680)
$990	11d	27 Jul 2026	$28.70	2/2	$15,655	$15,195	73%	79%	+$3,488	-$46,307	92.6%	$-45,635 (vs do-nothing $-40,620)
$970	6d	22 Jul 2026	$21.60	2/2	$21,600	$21,140	72%	79%	+$5,648	-$51,727	103.5%	$-51,055 (vs do-nothing $-46,040)
$955	4d	20 Jul 2026	$17.70	2/2	$26,550	$26,090	72%	79%	+$9,277	-$55,507	111.0%	$-54,835 (vs do-nothing $-49,820)
$1005	15d	31 Jul 2026	$40.50	2/2	$16,200	$15,740	72%	78%	+$4,069	-$40,947	81.9%	$-40,275 (vs do-nothing $-35,260)
$995	13d	29 Jul 2026	$34.80	2/2	$16,062	$15,602	72%	78%	+$3,776	-$44,087	88.2%	$-43,415 (vs do-nothing $-38,400)
$985	11d	27 Jul 2026	$30.20	2/2	$16,473	$16,013	72%	78%	+$3,603	-$47,007	94.0%	$-46,335 (vs do-nothing $-41,320)
$980	8d	24 Jul 2026	$29.80	2/2	$22,350	$21,890	72%	78%	+$6,185	-$48,087	96.2%	$-47,415 (vs do-nothing $-42,400)
$1000	15d	31 Jul 2026	$42.50	2/2	$17,000	$16,540	71%	78%	+$4,340	-$41,547	83.1%	$-40,875 (vs do-nothing $-35,860)
$990	13d	29 Jul 2026	$35.75	2/2	$16,500	$16,040	71%	78%	+$3,604	-$44,897	89.8%	$-44,225 (vs do-nothing $-39,210)
$965	6d	22 Jul 2026	$23.20	2/2	$23,200	$22,740	71%	77%	+$4,994	-$52,407	104.8%	$-51,735 (vs do-nothing $-46,720)
$980	11d	27 Jul 2026	$31.75	2/2	$17,318	$16,858	71%	77%	+$3,713	-$47,697	95.4%	$-47,025 (vs do-nothing $-42,010)
$995	15d	31 Jul 2026	$43.40	2/2	$17,360	$16,900	71%	77%	+$4,151	-$42,367	84.7%	$-41,695 (vs do-nothing $-36,680)
$975	8d	24 Jul 2026	$31.30	2/2	$23,475	$23,015	71%	77%	+$6,286	-$48,787	97.6%	$-48,115 (vs do-nothing $-43,100)
$950	4d	20 Jul 2026	$19.20	2/2	$28,800	$28,340	71%	78%	+$9,599	-$56,207	112.4%	$-55,535 (vs do-nothing $-50,520)
$985	13d	29 Jul 2026	$37.30	2/2	$17,215	$16,756	70%	77%	+$3,683	-$45,587	91.2%	$-44,915 (vs do-nothing $-39,900)
$990	15d	31 Jul 2026	$45.15	2/2	$18,060	$17,600	70%	77%	+$4,282	-$43,017	86.0%	$-42,345 (vs do-nothing $-37,330)
$960	6d	22 Jul 2026	$24.75	2/2	$24,750	$24,290	70%	77%	+$6,095	-$53,097	106.2%	$-52,425 (vs do-nothing $-47,410)
$975	11d	27 Jul 2026	$33.35	2/2	$18,191	$17,731	70%	77%	+$3,815	-$48,377	96.8%	$-47,705 (vs do-nothing $-42,690)
$970	8d	24 Jul 2026	$32.65	2/2	$24,488	$24,028	69%	77%	+$6,223	-$49,517	99.0%	$-48,845 (vs do-nothing $-43,830)
$980	13d	29 Jul 2026	$38.95	2/2	$17,977	$17,517	69%	77%	+$3,782	-$46,257	92.5%	$-45,585 (vs do-nothing $-40,570)
$985	15d	31 Jul 2026	$46.50	2/2	$18,600	$18,140	69%	76%	+$4,233	-$43,747	87.5%	$-43,075 (vs do-nothing $-38,060)
$945	4d	20 Jul 2026	$20.35	2/2	$30,525	$30,065	69%	76%	+$9,224	-$56,977	114.0%	$-56,305 (vs do-nothing $-51,290)
$970	11d	27 Jul 2026	$35.00	2/2	$19,091	$18,631	68%	76%	+$3,908	-$49,047	98.1%	$-48,375 (vs do-nothing $-43,360)
$975	13d	29 Jul 2026	$40.55	2/2	$18,715	$18,256	68%	76%	+$3,831	-$46,937	93.9%	$-46,265 (vs do-nothing $-41,250)
$965	8d	24 Jul 2026	$34.20	2/2	$25,650	$25,190	68%	76%	+$6,256	-$50,207	100.4%	$-49,535 (vs do-nothing $-44,520)
$955	6d	22 Jul 2026	$26.40	2/2	$26,400	$25,940	68%	76%	+$6,264	-$53,767	107.5%	$-53,095 (vs do-nothing $-48,080)
$980	15d	31 Jul 2026	$48.10	2/2	$19,240	$18,780	68%	76%	+$4,264	-$44,427	88.9%	$-43,755 (vs do-nothing $-38,740)
$965	11d	27 Jul 2026	$36.70	2/2	$20,018	$19,558	67%	76%	+$3,992	-$49,707	99.4%	$-49,035 (vs do-nothing $-44,020)
$970	13d	29 Jul 2026	$42.30	2/2	$19,523	$19,063	67%	76%	+$3,922	-$47,587	95.2%	$-46,915 (vs do-nothing $-41,900)
$975	15d	31 Jul 2026	$49.55	2/2	$19,820	$19,360	67%	75%	+$4,213	-$45,137	90.3%	$-44,465 (vs do-nothing $-39,450)
$960	8d	24 Jul 2026	$35.90	2/2	$26,925	$26,465	67%	75%	+$6,348	-$50,867	101.7%	$-50,195 (vs do-nothing $-45,180)
$950	6d	22 Jul 2026	$27.40	2/2	$27,400	$26,940	67%	75%	+$5,691	-$54,567	109.1%	$-53,895 (vs do-nothing $-48,880)
$940	4d	20 Jul 2026	$22.25	1/2	$16,688	$16,719	66%	75%	+$4,896	-$28,799	57.6%	$-30,970 (vs do-nothing $-25,955)
$970	15d	31 Jul 2026	$51.55	2/2	$20,620	$20,160	66%	75%	+$4,360	-$45,737	91.5%	$-45,065 (vs do-nothing $-40,050)
$965	13d	29 Jul 2026	$44.05	2/2	$20,331	$19,871	66%	75%	+$3,984	-$48,237	96.5%	$-47,565 (vs do-nothing $-42,550)
$960	11d	27 Jul 2026	$38.50	2/2	$21,000	$20,540	66%	75%	+$4,094	-$50,347	100.7%	$-49,675 (vs do-nothing $-44,660)
$955	8d	24 Jul 2026	$38.00	2/2	$28,500	$28,040	66%	75%	+$6,683	-$51,447	102.9%	$-50,775 (vs do-nothing $-45,760)
$965	15d	31 Jul 2026	$52.50	2/2	$21,000	$20,540	65%	74%	+$4,066	-$46,547	93.1%	$-45,875 (vs do-nothing $-40,860)
$960	13d	29 Jul 2026	$45.85	2/2	$21,162	$20,702	65%	74%	+$4,041	-$48,877	97.8%	$-48,205 (vs do-nothing $-43,190)
$952.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$37.90	2/2	$28,425	$27,965	65%	74%	+$5,967	-$51,967	103.9%	$-51,295 (vs do-nothing $-46,280)
$955	11d	27 Jul 2026	$40.30	2/2	$21,982	$21,522	65%	74%	+$4,156	-$50,987	102.0%	$-50,315 (vs do-nothing $-45,300)
$945	6d	22 Jul 2026	$29.30	2/2	$29,300	$28,840	65%	74%	+$5,925	-$55,187	110.4%	$-54,515 (vs do-nothing $-49,500)
$960	15d	31 Jul 2026	$54.80	2/2	$21,920	$21,460	64%	74%	+$4,289	-$47,087	94.2%	$-46,415 (vs do-nothing $-41,400)
$950	8d	24 Jul 2026	$39.00	2/2	$29,250	$28,790	64%	74%	+$6,137	-$52,247	104.5%	$-51,575 (vs do-nothing $-46,560)
$935	4d	20 Jul 2026	$23.70	1/2	$17,775	$17,806	64%	74%	+$4,747	-$29,154	58.3%	$-31,325 (vs do-nothing $-26,310)
$955	13d	29 Jul 2026	$47.80	2/2	$22,062	$21,602	64%	74%	+$4,137	-$49,487	99.0%	$-48,815 (vs do-nothing $-43,800)
$950	11d	27 Jul 2026	$42.25	2/2	$23,045	$22,586	64%	74%	+$4,262	-$51,597	103.2%	$-50,925 (vs do-nothing $-45,910)
$947.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$39.40	2/2	$29,550	$29,090	64%	74%	+$5,767	-$52,667	105.3%	$-51,995 (vs do-nothing $-46,980)
$955	15d	31 Jul 2026	$56.80	2/2	$22,720	$22,260	64%	73%	+$4,370	-$47,687	95.4%	$-47,015 (vs do-nothing $-42,000)
$940	6d	22 Jul 2026	$31.25	1/2	$15,625	$15,656	63%	73%	+$2,655	-$27,899	55.8%	$-30,070 (vs do-nothing $-25,055)
$945	8d	24 Jul 2026	$41.45	1/2	$15,544	$15,575	63%	73%	+$3,310	-$26,379	52.8%	$-28,550 (vs do-nothing $-23,535)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-16 03:39