FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $887.98

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1227.92 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $887.98 UNDERWATER $332.02 (27.2% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1227.92 (banked floor $1,216.11) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$35,054/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$460/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-69,988	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,527/mo

HEDGE COVER
$460/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$35,054/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1227.92 (probe: $1230C 15d) brings only $3,040/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$67,539

was $69,988 · 3% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,610

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,227.92 → $1,216.11

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1060C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$8.05	$1,610	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 67 (live) · RSI 63 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 12 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,239.43 (+40%) · daily UBB $1,228.54 · 1-wk expected move ±$125 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1000 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($17,527/mo); it brings $17,962/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $925/8d for $36,600/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1300/8d (99+% survival, $750/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $40,795 (82% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 1.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-70,193 and cuts bleed by $460/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 2 × $1000, 81% survival, $17,962/mo (E[net] $4,304/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 8d	2 × $1000	81%	$17,962	$4,304

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $4,304/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1000 (primary), 81% survival, breach 19%, $17,962/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1040 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 19% → 13%) for $6,338/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $887.98 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1300

24 Jul

46.4%

99+%

$200

$750

-$17,212

Sell 2 × $1300 46.4% OTM over spot $887.98 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.34 mid)

= $200 credit for the 8d cycle → $750/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1300)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1301.35)

99+%

EV / mo

+$708

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-4.0] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-482

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$14,444

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$1,372 @ 75% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $103.49/sh now → $73.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$72.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,300	27 Jul 2026	7d left	-$7.10/sh	-$1,421 cycle -$1,221	69% surv 52%	+$2,955 SAFE cap gain +$72,943
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,372	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.36/sh	+$72 cycle +$272	75% surv 65%	+$17,411 SAFE cap gain +$87,399

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$750/mo
vs 50% target ($17,527/mo)	-96%
vs normal income ($35,054/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$290/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1300 is at/above CC-SS $1227.92: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,057

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,301.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,300)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,228.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,287.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,287-1,301.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,301.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,300.00 (3.1σ)	$200	$4,376	+$74,364	+$15,914
+2.5%	$1,332.50 (3.3σ)	$-6,300	$3,726	+$73,714	+$15,914
+5%	$1,365.00 (3.6σ)	$-12,800	$3,076	+$73,064	+$15,914

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$61,190

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1300): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,798 (+$61,190 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,097 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,299, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1065

24 Jul

19.9%

90%

21%

$2,350

$8,812

-$9,150

$30,235

Sell 2 × $1065 19.9% OTM over spot $887.98 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $12.75 mid)

= $2,350 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,812/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1065)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1077.75)

91%

EV / mo

+$5,565

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.8] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,482

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,647

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$1,187 @ 80% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $84.79/sh now → $59.98 mid-life (likely $51.43–$89.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$48.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 518 simulated challenges: the $1,065 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $1,099 (overshoots $34.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,137	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.27/sh	+$1,255 cycle +$3,605 [-$792…+$3,305] · 64% credit	76% surv 66%	-$21,556 NOT cap gain +$48,432
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,065	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$1.08/sh	+$216 cycle +$2,566 [-$743…+$1,790] · 59% credit	69% surv 53%	-$35,558 NOT cap gain +$34,430
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,152	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$11 cycle +$2,361 [-$2,375…+$1,940] · 45% credit	77% surv 69%	-$20,100 NOT cap gain +$49,888
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,187	7 Aug 2026	18d left	-$10.66/sh	-$2,131 cycle +$219 [-$4,995…-$406] · 22% credit	80% surv 74%	-$15,942 NOT cap gain +$54,046
budget: banked $2,350 debit $2,131 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$219 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $16,443/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,812/mo
vs 50% target ($17,527/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($35,054/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,353/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1065 is $163 below CC-SS $1227.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,235
… as % of IC ($50,000)	60.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	15.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,188

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.94/sh (~25% of the $11.75 collected) or spot ≥ $1,077.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,065)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,228.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,054.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,054-1,077.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,077.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,065.00 (1.3σ)	$2,350	$-35,774	+$34,214	+$2,064
+2.5%	$1,091.62 (1.5σ)	$-2,975	$-36,307	+$33,681	-$3,261
+5%	$1,118.25 (1.7σ)	$-8,300	$-36,839	+$33,149	-$8,586
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.5σ)	$-28,650	$-38,874	+$31,114	-$28,936

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$61,190

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1065): -$30,235

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,033 (+$30,955 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,097 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,936, the opportunity cost of earning $8,812/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $1040

24 Jul

17.1%

87%

27%

$3,100

$11,625

-$6,338

$34,485

Sell 2 × $1040 17.1% OTM over spot $887.98 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $16.57 mid)

= $3,100 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,625/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1040)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $1056.58)

89%

EV / mo

+$6,781

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,385

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,615

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$1,177 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $82.80/sh now → $58.58 mid-life (likely $54.35–$89.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $15.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$43.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $1,040 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $1,072 (overshoots $31.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,107	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.22/sh	+$1,644 cycle +$4,744 [-$811…+$2,860] · 65% credit	75% surv 66%	-$25,817 NOT cap gain +$44,171
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,040	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$1.77/sh	+$354 cycle +$3,454 [-$816…+$1,513] · 55% credit	69% surv 53%	-$39,170 NOT cap gain +$30,818
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,042	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.69/sh	+$137 cycle +$3,237 [-$1,094…+$1,229] · 49% credit	69% surv 53%	-$39,024 NOT cap gain +$30,964
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,127	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.45/sh	+$91 cycle +$3,191 [-$2,641…+$1,108] · 39% credit	77% surv 69%	-$23,770 NOT cap gain +$46,218
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,177	7 Aug 2026	18d left	-$14.43/sh	-$2,886 cycle +$214 [-$6,211…-$2,073] · 11% credit	81% surv 76%	-$17,747 NOT cap gain +$52,241
budget: banked $3,100 debit $2,886 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$214 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,714/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,625/mo
vs 50% target ($17,527/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($35,054/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,165/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1040 is $188 below CC-SS $1227.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$34,485
… as % of IC ($50,000)	69.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	17.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,203

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.88/sh (~25% of the $15.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,056.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,040)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,228.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,029.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,030-1,056.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,056.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,040.00 (1.1σ)	$3,100	$-39,524	+$30,464	+$2,814
+2.5%	$1,066.00 (1.3σ)	$-2,100	$-40,044	+$29,944	-$2,386
+5%	$1,092.00 (1.5σ)	$-7,300	$-40,564	+$29,424	-$7,586
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.5σ)	$-32,900	$-43,124	+$26,864	-$33,186

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$61,190

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1040): -$34,485

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,283 (+$26,705 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,097 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,186, the opportunity cost of earning $11,625/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1000

24 Jul

12.6%

81%

32%

$4,790

$17,962

—

$40,795

Sell 2 × $1000 12.6% OTM over spot $887.98 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $24.98 mid)

= $4,790 credit for the 8d cycle → $17,962/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1000)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $1024.97)

85%

EV / mo

+$9,223

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.0] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $33,236

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,474

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$1,177 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $79.61/sh now → $56.32 mid-life (likely $57.77–$89.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $23.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 970 simulated challenges: the $1,000 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $1,032 (overshoots $31.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,062	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.69/sh	+$2,137 cycle +$6,927 [-$589…+$2,704] · 65% credit	75% surv 65%	-$31,733 NOT cap gain +$38,255
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,000	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$2.81/sh	+$561 cycle +$5,351 [-$864…+$1,100] · 46% credit	69% surv 53%	-$44,473 NOT cap gain +$25,515
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,002	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$1.72/sh	+$344 cycle +$5,134 [-$1,118…+$861] · 41% credit	69% surv 53%	-$44,326 NOT cap gain +$25,662
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,087	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.99/sh	+$198 cycle +$4,988 [-$2,906…+$531] · 31% credit	77% surv 69%	-$29,173 NOT cap gain +$40,815
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,177	7 Aug 2026	18d left	-$23.84/sh	-$4,767 cycle +$23 [-$9,013…-$4,871] · 2% credit	84% surv 81%	-$17,938 NOT cap gain +$52,050
budget: banked $4,790 debit $4,767 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,829/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$17,962/mo
vs 50% target ($17,527/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($35,054/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,503/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1000 is $228 below CC-SS $1227.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$40,795
… as % of IC ($50,000)	81.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	20.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,193

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.99/sh (~25% of the $23.95 collected) or spot ≥ $1,024.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,000)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,228.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $990.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $990-1,024.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,024.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,000.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,790	$-45,034	+$24,954	+$4,504
+2.5%	$1,025.00 (1.0σ)	$-210	$-45,534	+$24,454	-$496
+5%	$1,050.00 (1.2σ)	$-5,210	$-46,034	+$23,954	-$5,496
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.5σ)	$-39,210	$-49,434	+$20,554	-$39,496

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$61,190

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1000): -$40,795

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,593 (+$20,395 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,097 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,496, the opportunity cost of earning $17,962/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $925

24 Jul

4.2%

63%

78%

$9,760

$36,600

+$18,638

$50,825

Sell 2 × $925 4.2% OTM over spot $887.98 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $50.00 mid)

= $9,760 credit for the 8d cycle → $36,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $925)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $975.00)

75%

EV / mo

+$13,133

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~14.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $45,976

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

62%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$660

Free roll-up

+$16/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$1,187 @ 91% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $73.64/sh now → $52.10 mid-life (likely $67.48–$96.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $48.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,862 simulated challenges: the $925 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $957 (overshoots $32.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$977	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$14.84/sh	+$2,968 cycle +$12,728 [-$544…+$1,647] · 65% credit	74% surv 64%	-$41,233 NOT cap gain +$28,755
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$925	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$4.51/sh	+$901 cycle +$10,661 [-$1,025…+$238] · 31% credit	69% surv 53%	-$52,663 NOT cap gain +$17,325
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$932	27 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.73/sh	+$145 cycle +$9,905 [-$1,814…-$547] · 16% credit	70% surv 55%	-$52,156 NOT cap gain +$17,832
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,017	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.34/sh	+$67 cycle +$9,827 [-$4,088…-$1,449] · 12% credit	78% surv 71%	-$36,933 NOT cap gain +$33,055
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,187	7 Aug 2026	18d left	-$35.06/sh	-$7,013 cycle +$2,747 [-$13,523…-$9,358]	91% surv 89%	-$13,414 NOT cap gain +$56,574
budget: banked $9,760 debit $7,013 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,747 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,678/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$36,600/mo
vs 50% target ($17,527/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($35,054/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$36,140/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $925 is $303 below CC-SS $1227.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$50,825
… as % of IC ($50,000)	101.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	25.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,228

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $12.20/sh (~25% of the $48.80 collected) or spot ≥ $975.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $925)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,228.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $915.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $916-975.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $975.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$925.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$9,760	$-53,564	+$16,424	+$9,474
+2.5%	$948.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,135	$-54,027	+$15,961	+$4,849
+5%	$971.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$510	$-54,489	+$15,499	+$224
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.5σ)	$-49,240	$-59,464	+$10,524	-$49,526

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1227.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$61,190

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $925): -$50,825

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,623 (+$10,365 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,097 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,526, the opportunity cost of earning $36,600/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (155 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 155 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$61,190 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,097

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$970	4d	20 Jul 2026	$13.15	2/2	$19,725	$19,265	81%	85%	+$8,797	-$48,955	97.9%	$-57,753 (vs do-nothing $-47,656)
$980	6d	22 Jul 2026	$18.95	2/2	$18,950	$18,490	81%	85%	+$10,081	-$45,795	91.6%	$-54,593 (vs do-nothing $-44,496)
$1000	8d	24 Jul 2026	$23.95	2/2	$17,962	$17,503	81%	85%	+$9,223	-$40,795	81.6%	$-49,593 (vs do-nothing $-39,496)
$995	8d	24 Jul 2026	$24.60	2/2	$18,450	$17,990	80%	84%	+$9,067	-$41,665	83.3%	$-50,463 (vs do-nothing $-40,366)
$975	6d	22 Jul 2026	$19.85	2/2	$19,850	$19,390	80%	84%	+$10,135	-$46,615	93.2%	$-55,413 (vs do-nothing $-45,316)
$990	8d	24 Jul 2026	$26.80	2/2	$20,100	$19,640	79%	84%	+$10,032	-$42,225	84.4%	$-51,023 (vs do-nothing $-40,926)
$970	6d	22 Jul 2026	$22.00	2/2	$22,000	$21,540	78%	84%	+$11,372	-$47,185	94.4%	$-55,983 (vs do-nothing $-45,886)
$985	8d	24 Jul 2026	$27.95	2/2	$20,962	$20,503	78%	83%	+$10,414	-$42,995	86.0%	$-51,793 (vs do-nothing $-41,696)
$965	6d	22 Jul 2026	$21.95	2/2	$21,950	$21,490	77%	83%	+$10,338	-$48,195	96.4%	$-56,993 (vs do-nothing $-46,896)
$980	8d	24 Jul 2026	$28.85	2/2	$21,638	$21,178	77%	82%	+$10,071	-$43,815	87.6%	$-52,613 (vs do-nothing $-42,516)
$960	6d	22 Jul 2026	$24.55	2/2	$24,550	$24,090	76%	82%	+$11,878	-$48,675	97.3%	$-57,473 (vs do-nothing $-47,376)
$975	8d	24 Jul 2026	$30.15	2/2	$22,612	$22,153	76%	82%	+$10,229	-$44,555	89.1%	$-53,353 (vs do-nothing $-43,256)
$970	8d	24 Jul 2026	$32.60	2/2	$24,450	$23,990	74%	81%	+$11,201	-$45,065	90.1%	$-53,863 (vs do-nothing $-43,766)

Show 142 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 142.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$955	6d	22 Jul 2026	$25.25	2/2	$25,250	$24,790	74%	81%	+$11,440	-$49,535	99.1%	$-58,333 (vs do-nothing $-48,236)
$990	15d	31 Jul 2026	$44.00	2/2	$17,600	$17,140	73%	80%	+$6,578	-$38,785	77.6%	$-47,583 (vs do-nothing $-37,486)
$965	8d	24 Jul 2026	$32.85	2/2	$24,638	$24,178	73%	80%	+$10,473	-$46,015	92.0%	$-54,813 (vs do-nothing $-44,716)
$975	11d	27 Jul 2026	$32.85	2/2	$17,918	$17,458	73%	80%	+$5,599	-$44,015	88.0%	$-52,813 (vs do-nothing $-42,716)
$980	13d	29 Jul 2026	$38.60	2/2	$17,815	$17,356	73%	80%	+$6,106	-$41,865	83.7%	$-50,663 (vs do-nothing $-40,566)
$950	6d	22 Jul 2026	$27.70	2/2	$27,700	$27,240	73%	81%	+$12,670	-$50,045	100.1%	$-58,843 (vs do-nothing $-48,746)
$985	15d	31 Jul 2026	$45.40	2/2	$18,160	$17,700	73%	80%	+$6,634	-$39,505	79.0%	$-48,303 (vs do-nothing $-38,206)
$960	8d	24 Jul 2026	$36.05	2/2	$27,038	$26,578	72%	80%	+$12,373	-$46,375	92.7%	$-55,173 (vs do-nothing $-45,076)
$970	11d	27 Jul 2026	$35.00	2/2	$19,091	$18,631	72%	79%	+$6,096	-$44,585	89.2%	$-53,383 (vs do-nothing $-43,286)
$975	13d	29 Jul 2026	$40.80	2/2	$18,831	$18,371	72%	79%	+$6,542	-$42,425	84.8%	$-51,223 (vs do-nothing $-41,126)
$980	15d	31 Jul 2026	$46.90	2/2	$18,760	$18,300	72%	79%	+$6,710	-$40,205	80.4%	$-49,003 (vs do-nothing $-38,906)
$945	6d	22 Jul 2026	$29.40	2/2	$29,400	$28,940	71%	80%	+$13,064	-$50,705	101.4%	$-59,503 (vs do-nothing $-49,406)
$965	11d	27 Jul 2026	$35.15	2/2	$19,173	$18,713	71%	78%	+$5,472	-$45,555	91.1%	$-54,353 (vs do-nothing $-44,256)
$955	8d	24 Jul 2026	$36.20	2/2	$27,150	$26,690	71%	79%	+$11,523	-$47,345	94.7%	$-56,143 (vs do-nothing $-46,046)
$970	13d	29 Jul 2026	$41.95	2/2	$19,362	$18,902	71%	79%	+$6,470	-$43,195	86.4%	$-51,993 (vs do-nothing $-41,896)
$930	4d	20 Jul 2026	$24.95	1/2	$18,712	$18,643	71%	80%	+$9,747	-$27,297	54.6%	$-36,745 (vs do-nothing $-26,648)
$975	15d	31 Jul 2026	$49.20	2/2	$19,680	$19,220	71%	79%	+$7,086	-$40,745	81.5%	$-49,543 (vs do-nothing $-39,446)
$952.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$37.10	2/2	$27,825	$27,365	71%	79%	+$11,698	-$47,665	95.3%	$-56,463 (vs do-nothing $-46,366)
$935	4d	20 Jul 2026	$23.25	2/2	$34,875	$34,415	70%	78%	+$13,053	-$53,935	107.9%	$-62,733 (vs do-nothing $-52,636)
$960	11d	27 Jul 2026	$38.40	2/2	$20,945	$20,486	70%	78%	+$6,508	-$45,905	91.8%	$-54,703 (vs do-nothing $-44,606)
$965	13d	29 Jul 2026	$42.65	2/2	$19,685	$19,225	70%	78%	+$6,166	-$44,055	88.1%	$-52,853 (vs do-nothing $-42,756)
$970	15d	31 Jul 2026	$50.50	2/2	$20,200	$19,740	70%	78%	+$7,042	-$41,485	83.0%	$-50,283 (vs do-nothing $-40,186)
$940	6d	22 Jul 2026	$30.75	2/2	$30,750	$30,290	70%	79%	+$13,019	-$51,435	102.9%	$-60,233 (vs do-nothing $-50,136)
$950	8d	24 Jul 2026	$39.50	2/2	$29,625	$29,165	70%	79%	+$12,400	-$47,685	95.4%	$-56,483 (vs do-nothing $-46,386)
$947.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$39.65	2/2	$29,738	$29,278	69%	79%	+$12,573	-$48,155	96.3%	$-56,953 (vs do-nothing $-46,856)
$960	13d	29 Jul 2026	$45.40	2/2	$20,954	$20,494	69%	78%	+$6,784	-$44,505	89.0%	$-53,303 (vs do-nothing $-43,206)
$965	15d	31 Jul 2026	$52.25	2/2	$20,900	$20,440	69%	78%	+$7,156	-$42,135	84.3%	$-50,933 (vs do-nothing $-40,836)
$955	11d	27 Jul 2026	$40.20	2/2	$21,927	$21,467	69%	77%	+$6,722	-$46,545	93.1%	$-55,343 (vs do-nothing $-45,246)
$925	4d	20 Jul 2026	$27.00	1/2	$20,250	$20,180	69%	79%	+$10,240	-$27,592	55.2%	$-37,040 (vs do-nothing $-26,943)
$945	8d	24 Jul 2026	$40.60	2/2	$30,450	$29,990	69%	78%	+$12,095	-$48,465	96.9%	$-57,263 (vs do-nothing $-47,166)
$935	6d	22 Jul 2026	$33.25	2/2	$33,250	$32,790	68%	78%	+$14,032	-$51,935	103.9%	$-60,733 (vs do-nothing $-50,636)
$960	15d	31 Jul 2026	$54.00	2/2	$21,600	$21,140	68%	77%	+$7,249	-$42,785	85.6%	$-51,583 (vs do-nothing $-41,486)
$955	13d	29 Jul 2026	$47.30	2/2	$21,831	$21,371	68%	77%	+$6,985	-$45,125	90.2%	$-53,923 (vs do-nothing $-43,826)
$942.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$41.55	2/2	$31,162	$30,703	68%	78%	+$12,907	-$48,775	97.5%	$-57,573 (vs do-nothing $-47,476)
$950	11d	27 Jul 2026	$41.45	2/2	$22,609	$22,149	68%	77%	+$6,603	-$47,295	94.6%	$-56,093 (vs do-nothing $-45,996)
$965	22d	7 Aug 2026	$64.65	2/2	$17,632	$17,172	68%	77%	+$5,379	-$39,655	79.3%	$-48,453 (vs do-nothing $-38,356)
$955	15d	31 Jul 2026	$55.85	2/2	$22,340	$21,880	67%	77%	+$7,360	-$43,415	86.8%	$-52,213 (vs do-nothing $-42,116)
$950	13d	29 Jul 2026	$48.90	2/2	$22,569	$22,109	67%	77%	+$7,021	-$45,805	91.6%	$-54,603 (vs do-nothing $-44,506)
$940	8d	24 Jul 2026	$42.55	2/2	$31,912	$31,453	67%	77%	+$12,369	-$49,075	98.1%	$-57,873 (vs do-nothing $-47,776)
$945	11d	27 Jul 2026	$41.95	2/2	$22,882	$22,422	67%	76%	+$6,042	-$48,195	96.4%	$-56,993 (vs do-nothing $-46,896)
$960	22d	7 Aug 2026	$66.90	2/2	$18,245	$17,786	67%	76%	+$5,551	-$40,205	80.4%	$-49,003 (vs do-nothing $-38,906)
$952.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$56.85	2/2	$22,740	$22,280	67%	77%	+$7,437	-$43,715	87.4%	$-52,513 (vs do-nothing $-42,416)
$930	6d	22 Jul 2026	$34.55	2/2	$34,550	$34,090	67%	77%	+$13,750	-$52,675	105.3%	$-61,473 (vs do-nothing $-51,376)
$920	4d	20 Jul 2026	$29.20	1/2	$21,900	$21,830	67%	78%	+$10,751	-$27,872	55.7%	$-37,320 (vs do-nothing $-27,223)
$937.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$43.55	2/2	$32,662	$32,203	67%	77%	+$12,503	-$49,375	98.7%	$-58,173 (vs do-nothing $-48,076)
$950	15d	31 Jul 2026	$57.75	2/2	$23,100	$22,640	66%	76%	+$7,469	-$44,035	88.1%	$-52,833 (vs do-nothing $-42,736)
$940	11d	27 Jul 2026	$45.95	2/2	$25,064	$24,604	66%	77%	+$8,626	-$48,395	96.8%	$-57,193 (vs do-nothing $-47,096)
$945	13d	29 Jul 2026	$51.10	2/2	$23,585	$23,125	66%	76%	+$7,308	-$46,365	92.7%	$-55,163 (vs do-nothing $-45,066)
$955	22d	7 Aug 2026	$68.45	2/2	$18,668	$18,208	66%	76%	+$5,519	-$40,895	81.8%	$-49,693 (vs do-nothing $-39,596)
$947.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$58.75	2/2	$23,500	$23,040	66%	76%	+$7,535	-$44,335	88.7%	$-53,133 (vs do-nothing $-43,036)
$935	8d	24 Jul 2026	$44.55	2/2	$33,412	$32,953	66%	77%	+$12,622	-$49,675	99.3%	$-58,473 (vs do-nothing $-48,376)
$945	15d	31 Jul 2026	$59.70	2/2	$23,880	$23,420	66%	76%	+$7,575	-$44,645	89.3%	$-53,443 (vs do-nothing $-43,346)
$950	22d	7 Aug 2026	$70.45	2/2	$19,214	$18,754	65%	76%	+$5,597	-$41,495	83.0%	$-50,293 (vs do-nothing $-40,196)
$932.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$45.55	2/2	$34,162	$33,703	65%	76%	+$12,726	-$49,975	99.9%	$-58,773 (vs do-nothing $-48,676)
$940	13d	29 Jul 2026	$53.20	2/2	$24,554	$24,094	65%	76%	+$7,521	-$46,945	93.9%	$-55,743 (vs do-nothing $-45,646)
$925	6d	22 Jul 2026	$35.65	1/2	$17,825	$17,755	65%	76%	+$6,585	-$26,727	53.5%	$-36,175 (vs do-nothing $-26,078)
$935	11d	27 Jul 2026	$48.00	2/2	$26,182	$25,722	65%	76%	+$8,812	-$48,985	98.0%	$-57,783 (vs do-nothing $-47,686)
$930	8d	24 Jul 2026	$46.60	2/2	$34,950	$34,490	65%	76%	+$12,852	-$50,265	100.5%	$-59,063 (vs do-nothing $-48,966)
$940	15d	31 Jul 2026	$61.05	2/2	$24,420	$23,960	65%	75%	+$7,418	-$45,375	90.7%	$-54,173 (vs do-nothing $-44,076)
$945	22d	7 Aug 2026	$72.35	2/2	$19,732	$19,272	65%	75%	+$5,635	-$42,115	84.2%	$-50,913 (vs do-nothing $-40,816)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-16 16:10