FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $843.73

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1239.36 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $843.73 UNDERWATER $376.27 (30.8% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1239.36 (banked floor $1,227.55) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$30,086/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$468/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-81,305	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,043/mo

HEDGE COVER
$468/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$30,086/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
6.6 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1239.36 (probe: $1240C 14d) brings only $1,329/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$78,856

was $81,305 · 3% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,610

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,239.36 → $1,227.55

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1060C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$8.05	$1,610	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 9 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,233.06 (+46%) · daily UBB $1,239.29 · 1-wk expected move ±$116 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $940 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($15,043/mo); it brings $15,257/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $880/7d for $30,343/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1230/7d (99% survival, $489/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $56,313 (113% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-81,450 and cuts bleed by $468/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $940, 80% survival, $15,257/mo (E[net] $4,243/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $940	80%	$15,257	$4,243

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $4,243/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $940 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $15,257/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $975 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 20% → 13%) for $5,186/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $843.73 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1230

24 Jul

45.8%

99%

+0pp

$114

$489

-$14,769

$1,759

Sell 2 × $1230 45.8% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.69 mid)

= $114 credit for the 7d cycle → $489/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1230)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1230.69)

99%

EV / mo

+$413

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

51% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-87/mo

median; plan ~$-59/mo after 68% keep · $-437 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$11,071

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,346 @ 78% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $79.06/sh now → $55.92 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$55.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,230	27 Jul 2026	6d left	-$3.34/sh	-$668 cycle -$554	68% surv 52%	-$1,669 NOT cap gain +$79,636
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,346	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.40/sh	+$279 cycle +$393	78% surv 71%	+$23,415 SAFE cap gain +$104,720

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$489/mo
vs 50% target ($15,043/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($30,086/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$20/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1230 is $9 below CC-SS $1239.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,759
… as % of IC ($50,000)	3.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-81,329

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $1,230.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,217.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,218-1,230.69	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,230.69	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,230.00 (3.3σ)	$114	$-1,001	+$80,304	+$1,982
+2.5%	$1,260.75 (3.6σ)	$-6,036	$-768	+$80,537	+$1,982
+5%	$1,291.50 (3.9σ)	$-12,186	$-534	+$80,771	+$1,982

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1239.36, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-81,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$82,133

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1230): -$1,759

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-930 (+$80,375 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,982, the opportunity cost of earning $489/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1000

24 Jul

18.5%

90%

20%

+7pp

$1,730

$7,414

-$7,843

$46,143

Sell 2 × $1000 18.5% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $9.00 mid)

= $1,730 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,414/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1000)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1009.00)

91%

EV / mo

+$4,323

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,804/mo

median; plan ~$2,587/mo after 68% keep · $20,462 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,363

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,166 @ 82% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $64.27/sh now → $45.47 mid-life (likely $37.81–$68.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$36.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 465 simulated challenges: the $1,000 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,030 (overshoots $29.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,061	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.68/sh	+$2,135 cycle +$3,865 [+$442…+$3,748] · 81% credit	74% surv 65%	-$32,279 NOT cap gain +$49,026
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,000	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.24/sh	+$649 cycle +$2,379 [-$22…+$2,146] · 75% credit	68% surv 52%	-$46,485 NOT cap gain +$34,820
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,006	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.25/sh	+$49 cycle +$1,779 [-$735…+$1,404] · 54% credit	69% surv 54%	-$45,782 NOT cap gain +$35,523
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,131	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.37/sh	+$74 cycle +$1,804 [-$2,316…+$1,632] · 45% credit	80% surv 74%	-$19,808 NOT cap gain +$61,497
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,166	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$7.60/sh	-$1,519 cycle +$211 [-$4,242…+$18] · 25% credit	82% surv 79%	-$14,135 NOT cap gain +$67,170
budget: banked $1,730 debit $1,519 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$211 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $9,468/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,414/mo
vs 50% target ($15,043/mo)	-51%
vs normal income ($30,086/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,946/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1000 is $239 below CC-SS $1239.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$46,143
… as % of IC ($50,000)	92.3%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	23.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-81,375

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.16/sh (~25% of the $8.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,009.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,000)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $990.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $990-1,009.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,009.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,000.00 (1.3σ)	$1,730	$-47,133	+$34,172	+$1,598
+2.5%	$1,025.00 (1.6σ)	$-3,270	$-46,943	+$34,362	-$3,402
+5%	$1,050.00 (1.8σ)	$-8,270	$-46,753	+$34,552	-$8,402
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.2σ)	$-42,270	$-45,461	+$35,844	-$42,402

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1239.36, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-81,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$82,133

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1000): -$46,143

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,314 (+$35,991 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,402, the opportunity cost of earning $7,414/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $975

24 Jul

15.6%

87%

27%

+6pp

$2,350

$10,071

-$5,186

$50,523

Sell 2 × $975 15.6% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.25 mid)

= $2,350 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,071/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $975)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $987.25)

89%

EV / mo

+$5,317

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

55% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,150/mo

median; plan ~$3,502/mo after 68% keep · $24,689 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.6], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,516

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,161 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $62.67/sh now → $44.33 mid-life (likely $42.16–$69.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 617 simulated challenges: the $975 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,005 (overshoots $29.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,036	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.88/sh	+$2,176 cycle +$4,526 [+$302…+$3,208] · 79% credit	74% surv 66%	-$36,808 NOT cap gain +$44,497
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$975	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.79/sh	+$759 cycle +$3,109 [-$15…+$1,620] · 74% credit	68% surv 52%	-$50,944 NOT cap gain +$30,361
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$981	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.80/sh	+$160 cycle +$2,510 [-$780…+$964] · 49% credit	69% surv 55%	-$50,241 NOT cap gain +$31,064
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,111	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.09/sh	+$17 cycle +$2,367 [-$2,616…+$810] · 35% credit	80% surv 75%	-$23,397 NOT cap gain +$57,908
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,161	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$11.12/sh	-$2,223 cycle +$127 [-$5,373…-$1,549] · 14% credit	84% surv 81%	-$15,257 NOT cap gain +$66,048
budget: banked $2,350 debit $2,223 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$127 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,303/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,071/mo
vs 50% target ($15,043/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($30,086/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,603/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $975 is $264 below CC-SS $1239.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$50,523
… as % of IC ($50,000)	101.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	25.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-81,405

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.94/sh (~25% of the $11.75 collected) or spot ≥ $987.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $975)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $965.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $965-987.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $987.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$975.00 (1.1σ)	$2,350	$-51,703	+$29,602	+$2,218
+2.5%	$999.37 (1.3σ)	$-2,525	$-51,518	+$29,787	-$2,657
+5%	$1,023.75 (1.5σ)	$-7,400	$-51,333	+$29,972	-$7,532
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.2σ)	$-46,650	$-49,841	+$31,464	-$46,782

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1239.36, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-81,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$82,133

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $975): -$50,523

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,694 (+$31,611 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,782, the opportunity cost of earning $10,071/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $940

24 Jul

11.4%

80%

30%

+8pp

$3,560

$15,257

—

$56,313

Sell 2 × $940 11.4% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.52 mid)

= $3,560 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,257/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $940)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $958.52)

84%

EV / mo

+$6,701

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,385/mo

median; plan ~$4,342/mo after 68% keep · $34,219 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-3.7], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,988

Free roll-up

+$26/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,161 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Buyback gross: $60.42/sh now → $42.74 mid-life (likely $44.34–$70.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 902 simulated challenges: the $940 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $969 (overshoots $29.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,001	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$11.08/sh	+$2,216 cycle +$5,776 [-$86…+$2,539] · 74% credit	74% surv 66%	-$42,824 NOT cap gain +$38,481
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$940	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.51/sh	+$902 cycle +$4,462 [-$172…+$1,387] · 69% credit	68% surv 52%	-$56,857 NOT cap gain +$24,448
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$951	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.00/sh	+$1 cycle +$3,561 [-$1,214…+$250] · 33% credit	70% surv 56%	-$55,419 NOT cap gain +$25,886
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,076	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.34/sh	+$68 cycle +$3,628 [-$2,976…+$251] · 28% credit	81% surv 76%	-$29,402 NOT cap gain +$51,903
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,161	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$17.45/sh	-$3,490 cycle +$70 [-$7,403…-$3,557] · 3% credit	87% surv 85%	-$15,314 NOT cap gain +$65,991
budget: banked $3,560 debit $3,490 (98% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $6,322/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,257/mo
vs 50% target ($15,043/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($30,086/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,789/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $940 is $299 below CC-SS $1239.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$56,313
… as % of IC ($50,000)	112.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	28.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-81,450

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.45/sh (~25% of the $17.80 collected) or spot ≥ $958.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $940)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $930.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $931-958.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $958.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$940.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,560	$-57,759	+$23,546	+$3,428
+2.5%	$963.50 (1.0σ)	$-1,140	$-57,581	+$23,724	-$1,272
+5%	$987.00 (1.2σ)	$-5,840	$-57,402	+$23,903	-$5,972
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.2σ)	$-52,440	$-55,631	+$25,674	-$52,572

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1239.36, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-81,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$82,133

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $940): -$56,313

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,484 (+$25,821 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-52,572, the opportunity cost of earning $15,257/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $880

24 Jul

4.3%

64%

75%

+15pp

$7,080

$30,343

+$15,086

$64,793

Sell 2 × $880 4.3% OTM over spot $843.73 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $36.65 mid)

= $7,080 credit for the 7d cycle → $30,343/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $880)

64%

Breach risk

36%

POP (stays ≤ $916.65)

75%

EV / mo

+$8,840

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+15pp

63% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$9,186/mo

median; plan ~$6,247/mo after 68% keep · $44,596 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

60%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$922

Free roll-up

+$26/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,161 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $56.56/sh now → $40.01 mid-life (likely $52.20–$74.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $35.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,785 simulated challenges: the $880 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $909 (overshoots $28.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$880	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$5.59/sh	+$1,118 cycle +$8,198 [-$255…+$683] · 62% credit	68% surv 52%	-$65,577 NOT cap gain +$15,728
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$941	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$11.20/sh	+$2,241 cycle +$9,321 [-$684…+$1,195] · 61% credit	75% surv 66%	-$51,735 NOT cap gain +$29,570
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$891	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.07/sh	+$215 cycle +$7,295 [-$1,296…-$352] · 17% credit	70% surv 57%	-$64,141 NOT cap gain +$17,164
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,016	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.55/sh	+$109 cycle +$7,189 [-$3,791…-$1,249] · 12% credit	81% surv 76%	-$38,297 NOT cap gain +$43,008
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,161	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$23.72/sh	-$4,744 cycle +$2,336 [-$10,106…-$6,682]	90% surv 89%	-$13,048 NOT cap gain +$68,257
budget: banked $7,080 debit $4,744 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,336 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,073/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$30,343/mo
vs 50% target ($15,043/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($30,086/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$29,875/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $880 is $359 below CC-SS $1239.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$64,793
… as % of IC ($50,000)	129.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	32.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-81,555

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.85/sh (~25% of the $35.40 collected) or spot ≥ $916.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $880)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $871.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $871-916.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $916.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$880.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,080	$-66,695	+$14,610	+$6,948
+2.5%	$902.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,680	$-66,528	+$14,777	+$2,548
+5%	$924.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,720	$-66,361	+$14,944	-$1,852
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.2σ)	$-60,920	$-64,111	+$17,194	-$61,052

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1239.36, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-81,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$82,133

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $880): -$64,793

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-63,964 (+$17,341 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,052, the opportunity cost of earning $30,343/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (140 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 140 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.038 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$82,133 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,912

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$925	5d	22 Jul 2026	$13.35	2/2	$16,020	$15,552	81%	85%	+$7,579	-$60,203	120.4%	$-59,374 (vs do-nothing $-56,462)
$940	7d	24 Jul 2026	$17.80	2/2	$15,257	$14,789	80%	84%	+$6,701	-$56,313	112.6%	$-55,484 (vs do-nothing $-52,572)
$920	5d	22 Jul 2026	$14.55	2/2	$17,460	$16,992	80%	84%	+$8,065	-$60,963	121.9%	$-60,134 (vs do-nothing $-57,222)
$937.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.45	2/2	$15,814	$15,346	80%	84%	+$6,901	-$56,683	113.4%	$-55,854 (vs do-nothing $-52,942)
$935	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.05	2/2	$16,329	$15,860	79%	83%	+$7,045	-$57,063	114.1%	$-56,234 (vs do-nothing $-53,322)
$932.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.55	2/2	$16,757	$16,289	79%	83%	+$7,089	-$57,463	114.9%	$-56,634 (vs do-nothing $-53,722)
$915	5d	22 Jul 2026	$15.80	2/2	$18,960	$18,492	79%	83%	+$8,519	-$61,713	123.4%	$-60,884 (vs do-nothing $-57,972)
$930	7d	24 Jul 2026	$20.25	2/2	$17,357	$16,889	78%	83%	+$7,291	-$57,823	115.6%	$-56,994 (vs do-nothing $-54,082)
$910	5d	22 Jul 2026	$17.05	2/2	$20,460	$19,992	77%	82%	+$8,873	-$62,463	124.9%	$-61,634 (vs do-nothing $-58,722)
$925	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.40	2/2	$18,343	$17,875	77%	82%	+$7,436	-$58,593	117.2%	$-57,764 (vs do-nothing $-54,852)
$920	7d	24 Jul 2026	$22.85	2/2	$19,586	$19,118	76%	81%	+$7,779	-$59,303	118.6%	$-58,474 (vs do-nothing $-55,562)
$905	5d	22 Jul 2026	$18.35	2/2	$22,020	$21,552	76%	81%	+$9,183	-$63,203	126.4%	$-62,374 (vs do-nothing $-59,462)
$935	12d	29 Jul 2026	$30.50	2/2	$15,250	$14,782	75%	80%	+$5,049	-$54,773	109.5%	$-53,944 (vs do-nothing $-51,032)

Show 127 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 127.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$915	7d	24 Jul 2026	$24.30	2/2	$20,829	$20,360	74%	80%	+$8,058	-$60,013	120.0%	$-59,184 (vs do-nothing $-56,272)
$900	5d	22 Jul 2026	$19.80	2/2	$23,760	$23,292	74%	80%	+$9,561	-$63,913	127.8%	$-63,084 (vs do-nothing $-60,172)
$930	12d	29 Jul 2026	$30.15	2/2	$15,075	$14,607	74%	80%	+$4,292	-$55,843	111.7%	$-55,014 (vs do-nothing $-52,102)
$920	10d	27 Jul 2026	$25.15	2/2	$15,090	$14,622	74%	79%	+$4,104	-$58,843	117.7%	$-58,014 (vs do-nothing $-55,102)
$910	7d	24 Jul 2026	$25.70	2/2	$22,029	$21,560	73%	79%	+$8,229	-$60,733	121.5%	$-59,904 (vs do-nothing $-56,992)
$935	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.15	2/2	$15,493	$15,025	73%	79%	+$4,498	-$53,643	107.3%	$-52,814 (vs do-nothing $-49,902)
$925	12d	29 Jul 2026	$31.60	2/2	$15,800	$15,332	73%	79%	+$4,408	-$56,553	113.1%	$-55,724 (vs do-nothing $-52,812)
$915	10d	27 Jul 2026	$26.70	2/2	$16,020	$15,552	72%	79%	+$4,293	-$59,533	119.1%	$-58,704 (vs do-nothing $-55,792)
$895	5d	22 Jul 2026	$21.30	2/2	$25,560	$25,092	72%	79%	+$9,882	-$64,613	129.2%	$-63,784 (vs do-nothing $-60,872)
$930	14d	31 Jul 2026	$37.65	2/2	$16,136	$15,668	72%	79%	+$4,585	-$54,343	108.7%	$-53,514 (vs do-nothing $-50,602)
$905	7d	24 Jul 2026	$27.25	2/2	$23,357	$22,889	72%	79%	+$8,459	-$61,423	122.8%	$-60,594 (vs do-nothing $-57,682)
$920	12d	29 Jul 2026	$33.70	2/2	$16,850	$16,382	72%	78%	+$4,821	-$57,133	114.3%	$-56,304 (vs do-nothing $-53,392)
$910	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.50	2/2	$17,700	$17,232	71%	78%	+$5,192	-$59,973	119.9%	$-59,144 (vs do-nothing $-56,232)
$925	14d	31 Jul 2026	$38.80	2/2	$16,629	$16,160	71%	78%	+$4,499	-$55,113	110.2%	$-54,284 (vs do-nothing $-51,372)
$915	12d	29 Jul 2026	$34.95	2/2	$17,475	$17,007	71%	78%	+$4,779	-$57,883	115.8%	$-57,054 (vs do-nothing $-54,142)
$890	5d	22 Jul 2026	$22.85	2/2	$27,420	$26,952	71%	78%	+$10,140	-$65,303	130.6%	$-64,474 (vs do-nothing $-61,562)
$900	7d	24 Jul 2026	$28.85	2/2	$24,729	$24,260	70%	78%	+$8,661	-$62,103	124.2%	$-61,274 (vs do-nothing $-58,362)
$920	14d	31 Jul 2026	$40.35	2/2	$17,293	$16,825	70%	77%	+$4,560	-$55,803	111.6%	$-54,974 (vs do-nothing $-52,062)
$905	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.75	2/2	$17,850	$17,382	70%	77%	+$4,517	-$60,923	121.8%	$-60,094 (vs do-nothing $-57,182)
$910	12d	29 Jul 2026	$36.80	2/2	$18,400	$17,932	69%	77%	+$5,009	-$58,513	117.0%	$-57,684 (vs do-nothing $-54,772)
$915	14d	31 Jul 2026	$41.70	2/2	$17,871	$17,403	69%	77%	+$4,512	-$56,533	113.1%	$-55,704 (vs do-nothing $-52,792)
$895	7d	24 Jul 2026	$30.50	2/2	$26,143	$25,675	69%	77%	+$8,833	-$62,773	125.5%	$-61,944 (vs do-nothing $-59,032)
$900	10d	27 Jul 2026	$31.30	2/2	$18,780	$18,312	69%	76%	+$4,578	-$61,613	123.2%	$-60,784 (vs do-nothing $-57,872)
$885	5d	22 Jul 2026	$24.60	2/2	$29,520	$29,052	69%	77%	+$10,510	-$65,953	131.9%	$-65,124 (vs do-nothing $-62,212)
$905	12d	29 Jul 2026	$37.10	2/2	$18,550	$18,082	68%	77%	+$4,433	-$59,453	118.9%	$-58,624 (vs do-nothing $-55,712)
$910	14d	31 Jul 2026	$43.65	2/2	$18,707	$18,239	68%	76%	+$4,696	-$57,143	114.3%	$-56,314 (vs do-nothing $-53,402)
$915	21d	7 Aug 2026	$53.60	2/2	$15,314	$14,846	68%	76%	+$3,753	-$54,153	108.3%	$-53,324 (vs do-nothing $-50,412)
$890	7d	24 Jul 2026	$32.10	2/2	$27,514	$27,046	68%	76%	+$8,885	-$63,453	126.9%	$-62,624 (vs do-nothing $-59,712)
$895	10d	27 Jul 2026	$32.95	2/2	$19,770	$19,302	67%	76%	+$4,654	-$62,283	124.6%	$-61,454 (vs do-nothing $-58,542)
$900	12d	29 Jul 2026	$41.00	2/2	$20,500	$20,032	67%	76%	+$5,625	-$59,673	119.3%	$-58,844 (vs do-nothing $-55,932)
$905	14d	31 Jul 2026	$45.50	2/2	$19,500	$19,032	67%	76%	+$4,812	-$57,773	115.5%	$-56,944 (vs do-nothing $-54,032)
$910	21d	7 Aug 2026	$55.35	2/2	$15,814	$15,346	67%	76%	+$3,793	-$54,803	109.6%	$-53,974 (vs do-nothing $-51,062)
$880	5d	22 Jul 2026	$26.30	1/2	$15,780	$15,510	67%	76%	+$5,343	-$33,306	66.6%	$-34,348 (vs do-nothing $-31,436)
$900	14d	31 Jul 2026	$48.40	2/2	$20,743	$20,275	66%	75%	+$5,352	-$58,193	116.4%	$-57,364 (vs do-nothing $-54,452)
$890	10d	27 Jul 2026	$34.65	2/2	$20,790	$20,322	66%	75%	+$4,713	-$62,943	125.9%	$-62,114 (vs do-nothing $-59,202)
$895	12d	29 Jul 2026	$42.00	2/2	$21,000	$20,532	66%	75%	+$5,336	-$60,473	120.9%	$-59,644 (vs do-nothing $-56,732)
$905	21d	7 Aug 2026	$56.45	2/2	$16,129	$15,660	66%	75%	+$3,632	-$55,583	111.2%	$-54,754 (vs do-nothing $-51,842)
$885	7d	24 Jul 2026	$33.50	2/2	$28,714	$28,246	66%	76%	+$8,688	-$64,173	128.3%	$-63,344 (vs do-nothing $-60,432)
$895	14d	31 Jul 2026	$48.10	2/2	$20,614	$20,146	65%	75%	+$4,495	-$59,253	118.5%	$-58,424 (vs do-nothing $-55,512)
$900	21d	7 Aug 2026	$59.35	2/2	$16,957	$16,489	65%	75%	+$3,971	-$56,003	112.0%	$-55,174 (vs do-nothing $-52,262)
$890	12d	29 Jul 2026	$43.05	2/2	$21,525	$21,057	65%	75%	+$5,039	-$61,263	122.5%	$-60,434 (vs do-nothing $-57,522)
$875	5d	22 Jul 2026	$27.45	1/2	$16,470	$16,200	65%	75%	+$5,032	-$33,691	67.4%	$-34,733 (vs do-nothing $-31,821)
$885	10d	27 Jul 2026	$36.75	2/2	$22,050	$21,582	65%	75%	+$4,963	-$63,523	127.0%	$-62,694 (vs do-nothing $-59,782)
$880	7d	24 Jul 2026	$35.40	1/2	$15,171	$14,901	64%	75%	+$4,420	-$32,396	64.8%	$-33,438 (vs do-nothing $-30,526)
$895	21d	7 Aug 2026	$60.10	2/2	$17,171	$16,703	64%	74%	+$3,680	-$56,853	113.7%	$-56,024 (vs do-nothing $-53,112)
$890	14d	31 Jul 2026	$51.20	2/2	$21,943	$21,475	64%	74%	+$5,068	-$59,633	119.3%	$-58,804 (vs do-nothing $-55,892)
$895	28d	14 Aug 2026	$70.30	2/2	$15,064	$14,596	64%	74%	+$3,098	-$54,813	109.6%	$-53,984 (vs do-nothing $-51,072)
$885	12d	29 Jul 2026	$44.55	2/2	$22,275	$21,807	64%	74%	+$4,712	-$61,963	123.9%	$-61,134 (vs do-nothing $-58,222)
$880	10d	27 Jul 2026	$38.10	2/2	$22,860	$22,392	64%	74%	+$4,714	-$64,253	128.5%	$-63,424 (vs do-nothing $-60,512)
$890	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.25	2/2	$17,786	$17,318	63%	74%	+$3,774	-$57,423	114.8%	$-56,594 (vs do-nothing $-53,682)
$885	14d	31 Jul 2026	$52.65	2/2	$22,564	$22,096	63%	74%	+$4,907	-$60,343	120.7%	$-59,514 (vs do-nothing $-56,602)
$890	28d	14 Aug 2026	$72.10	2/2	$15,450	$14,982	63%	74%	+$3,089	-$55,453	110.9%	$-54,624 (vs do-nothing $-51,712)
$870	5d	22 Jul 2026	$28.75	1/2	$17,250	$16,980	63%	74%	+$4,741	-$34,061	68.1%	$-35,103 (vs do-nothing $-32,191)
$875	7d	24 Jul 2026	$37.30	1/2	$15,986	$15,716	63%	74%	+$4,455	-$32,706	65.4%	$-33,748 (vs do-nothing $-30,836)
$880	12d	29 Jul 2026	$46.45	2/2	$23,225	$22,757	63%	73%	+$4,740	-$62,583	125.2%	$-61,754 (vs do-nothing $-58,842)
$885	21d	7 Aug 2026	$65.00	2/2	$18,571	$18,103	63%	73%	+$4,023	-$57,873	115.7%	$-57,044 (vs do-nothing $-54,132)
$885	28d	14 Aug 2026	$73.35	2/2	$15,718	$15,250	62%	73%	+$2,952	-$56,203	112.4%	$-55,374 (vs do-nothing $-52,462)
$875	10d	27 Jul 2026	$41.05	2/2	$24,630	$24,162	62%	73%	+$5,374	-$64,663	129.3%	$-63,834 (vs do-nothing $-60,922)
$880	14d	31 Jul 2026	$54.70	2/2	$23,443	$22,975	62%	73%	+$4,976	-$60,933	121.9%	$-60,104 (vs do-nothing $-57,192)
$880	21d	7 Aug 2026	$66.75	2/2	$19,071	$18,603	62%	73%	+$3,971	-$58,523	117.0%	$-57,694 (vs do-nothing $-54,782)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 01:33