FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $847.80

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1248.60 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $847.80 UNDERWATER $372.20 (30.5% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1248.60 (banked floor $1,236.78) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$30,514/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$468/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-82,390	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,257/mo

HEDGE COVER
$468/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$30,514/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1248.60 (probe: $1250C 14d) brings only $1,264/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$79,941

was $82,390 · 3% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,610

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,248.60 → $1,236.78

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1060C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$8.05	$1,610	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 10 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,232.82 (+45%) · daily UBB $1,239.07 · 1-wk expected move ±$119 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $945 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($15,257/mo); it brings $15,471/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $885/7d for $30,900/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1225/7d (99% survival, $480/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $57,110 (114% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-82,525 and cuts bleed by $468/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $945, 80% survival, $15,471/mo (E[net] $3,890/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $945	80%	$15,471	$3,890

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $3,890/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $945 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $15,471/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $980 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 20% → 13%) for $5,314/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $847.80 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1225

24 Jul

44.5%

99%

-0pp

$112

$480

-$14,991

$4,608

Sell 2 × $1225 44.5% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.80 mid)

= $112 credit for the 7d cycle → $480/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1225)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1225.80)

99%

EV / mo

+$402

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-0pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-88/mo

median; plan ~$-60/mo after 68% keep · $-555 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$11,163

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,337 @ 77% POP

70% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $79.69/sh now → $56.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$55.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,225	27 Jul 2026	6d left	-$3.75/sh	-$750 cycle -$638	68% surv 52%	-$4,874 NOT cap gain +$77,516
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,337	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.04/sh	+$207 cycle +$319	77% surv 70%	+$19,331 SAFE cap gain +$101,721

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$480/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1225 is $24 below CC-SS $1248.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,608
… as % of IC ($50,000)	9.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	2.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-82,437

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $1,225.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,212.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,213-1,225.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,225.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,225.00 (3.2σ)	$112	$-4,123	+$78,267	+$982
+2.5%	$1,255.62 (3.4σ)	$-6,013	$-3,903	+$78,487	+$982
+5%	$1,286.25 (3.7σ)	$-12,138	$-3,682	+$78,708	+$982

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,390

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,045

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1225): -$4,608

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,953 (+$78,437 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$982, the opportunity cost of earning $480/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1005

24 Jul

18.5%

90%

20%

+4pp

$1,730

$7,414

-$8,057

$46,990

Sell 2 × $1005 18.5% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $9.03 mid)

= $1,730 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,414/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1005)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1014.02)

91%

EV / mo

+$4,232

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,884/mo

median; plan ~$2,641/mo after 68% keep · $20,180 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,520

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,167 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $65.38/sh now → $46.25 mid-life (likely $40.92–$72.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $1,005 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,036 (overshoots $31.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,067	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$11.87/sh	+$2,375 cycle +$4,105 [+$358…+$3,640] · 80% credit	74% surv 65%	-$32,827 NOT cap gain +$49,563
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,005	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.47/sh	+$493 cycle +$2,223 [-$393…+$1,493] · 63% credit	68% surv 52%	-$47,596 NOT cap gain +$34,794
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,007	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.36/sh	+$272 cycle +$2,002 [-$676…+$1,257] · 54% credit	68% surv 53%	-$47,362 NOT cap gain +$35,028
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,137	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.08/sh	+$17 cycle +$1,747 [-$2,729…+$1,288] · 40% credit	79% surv 74%	-$20,682 NOT cap gain +$61,708
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,167	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$7.42/sh	-$1,483 cycle +$247 [-$4,511…-$299] · 21% credit	82% surv 78%	-$15,965 NOT cap gain +$66,425
budget: banked $1,730 debit $1,483 (86% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$247 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $9,709/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,414/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	-51%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,946/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1005 is $244 below CC-SS $1248.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$46,990
… as % of IC ($50,000)	94.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	23.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-82,465

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.16/sh (~25% of the $8.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,014.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,005)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $994.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $995-1,014.02	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,014.02	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,005.00 (1.3σ)	$1,730	$-48,089	+$34,301	+$1,600
+2.5%	$1,030.12 (1.5σ)	$-3,295	$-47,908	+$34,482	-$3,425
+5%	$1,055.25 (1.7σ)	$-8,320	$-47,727	+$34,663	-$8,450
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-41,270	$-46,541	+$35,849	-$41,400

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,390

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,045

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1005): -$46,990

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,335 (+$36,055 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,400, the opportunity cost of earning $7,414/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $980

24 Jul

15.6%

87%

28%

+7pp

$2,370

$10,157

-$5,314

$51,350

Sell 2 × $980 15.6% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.32 mid)

= $2,370 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,157/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $980)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $992.33)

88%

EV / mo

+$5,200

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,133/mo

median; plan ~$3,490/mo after 68% keep · $25,813 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,650

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,157 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $63.76/sh now → $45.10 mid-life (likely $43.64–$73.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 653 simulated challenges: the $980 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,012 (overshoots $32.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,042	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.04/sh	+$2,408 cycle +$4,778 [+$265…+$3,405] · 79% credit	74% surv 65%	-$37,334 NOT cap gain +$45,056
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$980	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.02/sh	+$604 cycle +$2,974 [-$410…+$1,484] · 62% credit	68% surv 52%	-$52,025 NOT cap gain +$30,365
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$982	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.91/sh	+$383 cycle +$2,753 [-$677…+$1,240] · 53% credit	68% surv 53%	-$51,791 NOT cap gain +$30,599
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,112	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.33/sh	+$65 cycle +$2,435 [-$2,931…+$849] · 34% credit	80% surv 74%	-$25,173 NOT cap gain +$57,217
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,157	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$10.67/sh	-$2,134 cycle +$236 [-$5,676…-$1,590] · 13% credit	83% surv 80%	-$18,048 NOT cap gain +$64,342
budget: banked $2,370 debit $2,134 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$236 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,608/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,157/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,689/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $980 is $269 below CC-SS $1248.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$51,350
… as % of IC ($50,000)	102.7%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	25.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-82,485

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.96/sh (~25% of the $11.85 collected) or spot ≥ $992.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $980)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $970.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $970-992.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $992.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$980.00 (1.1σ)	$2,370	$-52,629	+$29,761	+$2,240
+2.5%	$1,004.50 (1.3σ)	$-2,530	$-52,453	+$29,937	-$2,660
+5%	$1,029.00 (1.5σ)	$-7,430	$-52,276	+$30,114	-$7,560
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-45,630	$-50,901	+$31,489	-$45,760

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,390

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,045

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $980): -$51,350

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,695 (+$31,695 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,760, the opportunity cost of earning $10,157/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $945

24 Jul

11.5%

80%

31%

+12pp

$3,610

$15,471

—

$57,110

Sell 2 × $945 11.5% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.73 mid)

= $3,610 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,471/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $945)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $963.73)

84%

EV / mo

+$6,484

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+12pp

63% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,634/mo

median; plan ~$4,511/mo after 68% keep · $31,402 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,088

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,162 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $61.48/sh now → $43.49 mid-life (likely $46.97–$72.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $18.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 932 simulated challenges: the $945 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $975 (overshoots $29.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,007	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.19/sh	+$2,438 cycle +$6,048 [+$101…+$2,608] · 77% credit	74% surv 66%	-$43,317 NOT cap gain +$39,073
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$945	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.74/sh	+$748 cycle +$4,358 [-$432…+$982] · 58% credit	68% surv 52%	-$57,893 NOT cap gain +$24,497
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$952	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.14/sh	+$28 cycle +$3,638 [-$1,300…+$210] · 30% credit	69% surv 55%	-$57,122 NOT cap gain +$25,268
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,077	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.58/sh	+$117 cycle +$3,727 [-$3,072…+$71] · 25% credit	80% surv 75%	-$31,133 NOT cap gain +$51,257
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,162	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$17.40/sh	-$3,479 cycle +$131 [-$7,561…-$3,908] · 1% credit	85% surv 83%	-$17,118 NOT cap gain +$65,272
budget: banked $3,610 debit $3,479 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $6,524/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,471/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,003/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $945 is $304 below CC-SS $1248.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$57,110
… as % of IC ($50,000)	114.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	28.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-82,525

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.51/sh (~25% of the $18.05 collected) or spot ≥ $963.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $945)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $935.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $936-963.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $963.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$945.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,610	$-58,641	+$23,749	+$3,480
+2.5%	$968.62 (1.0σ)	$-1,115	$-58,471	+$23,919	-$1,245
+5%	$992.25 (1.2σ)	$-5,840	$-58,301	+$24,089	-$5,970
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-51,390	$-56,661	+$25,729	-$51,520

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,390

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,045

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $945): -$57,110

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,455 (+$25,935 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,520, the opportunity cost of earning $15,471/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $885

24 Jul

4.4%

65%

75%

+14pp

$7,210

$30,900

+$15,429

$65,510

Sell 2 × $885 4.4% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $37.45 mid)

= $7,210 credit for the 7d cycle → $30,900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $885)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $922.45)

75%

EV / mo

+$8,855

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+14pp

67% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$9,784/mo

median; plan ~$6,653/mo after 68% keep · $38,392 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

60%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$936

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,162 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $57.58/sh now → $40.73 mid-life (likely $53.33–$76.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $36.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,788 simulated challenges: the $885 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $915 (overshoots $30.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$947	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.23/sh	+$2,445 cycle +$9,655 [-$524…+$1,382] · 65% credit	75% surv 66%	-$52,141 NOT cap gain +$30,249
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$885	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.83/sh	+$967 cycle +$8,177 [-$534…+$446] · 45% credit	68% surv 52%	-$66,507 NOT cap gain +$15,883
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$892	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.26/sh	+$251 cycle +$7,461 [-$1,429…-$383] · 17% credit	69% surv 55%	-$65,731 NOT cap gain +$16,659
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,017	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.81/sh	+$162 cycle +$7,372 [-$3,822…-$1,241] · 12% credit	80% surv 75%	-$39,921 NOT cap gain +$42,469
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,162	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$24.40/sh	-$4,880 cycle +$2,330 [-$10,422…-$6,857]	90% surv 89%	-$14,919 NOT cap gain +$67,471
budget: banked $7,210 debit $4,880 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,330 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,082/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$30,900/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	+103%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30,432/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $885 is $364 below CC-SS $1248.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$65,510
… as % of IC ($50,000)	131.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	33.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-82,670

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.01/sh (~25% of the $36.05 collected) or spot ≥ $922.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $885)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,239.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $876.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $876-922.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $922.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$885.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,210	$-67,473	+$14,917	+$7,080
+2.5%	$907.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,785	$-67,314	+$15,076	+$2,655
+5%	$929.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,640	$-67,155	+$15,235	-$1,770
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-59,790	$-65,061	+$17,329	-$59,920

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,390

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,045

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $885): -$65,510

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64,855 (+$17,535 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,920, the opportunity cost of earning $30,900/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (139 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 139 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.036 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$83,045 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,935

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$930	5d	22 Jul 2026	$13.75	2/2	$16,500	$16,032	81%	85%	+$7,511	-$60,970	121.9%	$-60,315 (vs do-nothing $-55,380)
$945	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.05	2/2	$15,471	$15,003	80%	84%	+$6,484	-$57,110	114.2%	$-56,455 (vs do-nothing $-51,520)
$925	5d	22 Jul 2026	$14.80	2/2	$17,760	$17,292	80%	84%	+$7,761	-$61,760	123.5%	$-61,105 (vs do-nothing $-56,170)
$942.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.65	2/2	$15,986	$15,518	80%	83%	+$6,623	-$57,490	115.0%	$-56,835 (vs do-nothing $-51,900)
$940	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.25	2/2	$16,500	$16,032	79%	83%	+$6,771	-$57,870	115.7%	$-57,215 (vs do-nothing $-52,280)
$937.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.75	2/2	$16,929	$16,460	78%	83%	+$6,814	-$58,270	116.5%	$-57,615 (vs do-nothing $-52,680)
$920	5d	22 Jul 2026	$16.05	2/2	$19,260	$18,792	78%	83%	+$8,157	-$62,510	125.0%	$-61,855 (vs do-nothing $-56,920)
$935	7d	24 Jul 2026	$20.45	2/2	$17,529	$17,060	78%	82%	+$6,948	-$58,630	117.3%	$-57,975 (vs do-nothing $-53,040)
$932.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.05	2/2	$18,043	$17,575	77%	82%	+$7,233	-$59,010	118.0%	$-58,355 (vs do-nothing $-53,420)
$930	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.80	2/2	$18,686	$18,218	77%	82%	+$7,469	-$59,360	118.7%	$-58,705 (vs do-nothing $-53,770)
$915	5d	22 Jul 2026	$17.20	2/2	$20,640	$20,172	77%	82%	+$8,333	-$63,280	126.6%	$-62,625 (vs do-nothing $-57,690)
$925	7d	24 Jul 2026	$23.10	2/2	$19,800	$19,332	75%	81%	+$7,396	-$60,100	120.2%	$-59,445 (vs do-nothing $-54,510)
$910	5d	22 Jul 2026	$18.55	2/2	$22,260	$21,792	75%	81%	+$8,644	-$64,010	128.0%	$-63,355 (vs do-nothing $-58,420)

Show 126 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 126.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$920	7d	24 Jul 2026	$24.40	2/2	$20,914	$20,446	74%	80%	+$7,542	-$60,840	121.7%	$-60,185 (vs do-nothing $-55,250)
$945	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.20	2/2	$15,514	$15,046	74%	79%	+$4,754	-$53,480	107.0%	$-52,825 (vs do-nothing $-47,890)
$905	5d	22 Jul 2026	$20.00	2/2	$24,000	$23,532	74%	80%	+$8,964	-$64,720	129.4%	$-64,065 (vs do-nothing $-59,130)
$915	7d	24 Jul 2026	$25.65	2/2	$21,986	$21,518	73%	79%	+$7,560	-$61,590	123.2%	$-60,935 (vs do-nothing $-56,000)
$940	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.75	2/2	$15,750	$15,282	73%	79%	+$4,449	-$54,370	108.7%	$-53,715 (vs do-nothing $-48,780)
$930	12d	29 Jul 2026	$31.60	2/2	$15,800	$15,332	72%	79%	+$3,953	-$57,400	114.8%	$-56,745 (vs do-nothing $-51,810)
$920	10d	27 Jul 2026	$27.75	2/2	$16,650	$16,182	72%	79%	+$4,603	-$60,170	120.3%	$-59,515 (vs do-nothing $-54,580)
$900	5d	22 Jul 2026	$21.40	2/2	$25,680	$25,212	72%	79%	+$9,109	-$65,440	130.9%	$-64,785 (vs do-nothing $-59,850)
$935	14d	31 Jul 2026	$39.15	2/2	$16,779	$16,310	72%	79%	+$4,915	-$54,890	109.8%	$-54,235 (vs do-nothing $-49,300)
$910	7d	24 Jul 2026	$27.45	2/2	$23,529	$23,060	72%	78%	+$8,080	-$62,230	124.5%	$-61,575 (vs do-nothing $-56,640)
$925	12d	29 Jul 2026	$32.80	2/2	$16,400	$15,932	71%	78%	+$3,846	-$58,160	116.3%	$-57,505 (vs do-nothing $-52,570)
$915	10d	27 Jul 2026	$27.95	2/2	$16,770	$16,302	71%	78%	+$3,923	-$61,130	122.3%	$-60,475 (vs do-nothing $-55,540)
$930	14d	31 Jul 2026	$40.70	2/2	$17,443	$16,975	71%	78%	+$4,994	-$55,580	111.2%	$-54,925 (vs do-nothing $-49,990)
$920	12d	29 Jul 2026	$34.90	2/2	$17,450	$16,982	70%	77%	+$4,224	-$58,740	117.5%	$-58,085 (vs do-nothing $-53,150)
$905	7d	24 Jul 2026	$29.20	2/2	$25,029	$24,560	70%	78%	+$8,391	-$62,880	125.8%	$-62,225 (vs do-nothing $-57,290)
$895	5d	22 Jul 2026	$23.20	2/2	$27,840	$27,372	70%	78%	+$9,613	-$66,080	132.2%	$-65,425 (vs do-nothing $-60,490)
$925	14d	31 Jul 2026	$42.25	2/2	$18,107	$17,639	70%	77%	+$5,049	-$56,270	112.5%	$-55,615 (vs do-nothing $-50,680)
$910	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.60	2/2	$17,760	$17,292	70%	77%	+$4,071	-$61,800	123.6%	$-61,145 (vs do-nothing $-56,210)
$915	12d	29 Jul 2026	$35.95	2/2	$17,975	$17,507	69%	77%	+$4,049	-$59,530	119.1%	$-58,875 (vs do-nothing $-53,940)
$920	14d	31 Jul 2026	$43.90	2/2	$18,814	$18,346	69%	77%	+$5,123	-$56,940	113.9%	$-56,285 (vs do-nothing $-51,350)
$900	7d	24 Jul 2026	$30.80	2/2	$26,400	$25,932	69%	77%	+$8,671	-$63,560	127.1%	$-62,905 (vs do-nothing $-57,970)
$905	10d	27 Jul 2026	$30.95	2/2	$18,570	$18,102	69%	76%	+$3,996	-$62,530	125.1%	$-61,875 (vs do-nothing $-56,940)
$890	5d	22 Jul 2026	$24.75	2/2	$29,700	$29,232	69%	77%	+$9,692	-$66,770	133.5%	$-66,115 (vs do-nothing $-61,180)
$910	12d	29 Jul 2026	$38.30	2/2	$19,150	$18,682	68%	76%	+$4,494	-$60,060	120.1%	$-59,405 (vs do-nothing $-54,470)
$915	14d	31 Jul 2026	$45.55	2/2	$19,521	$19,053	68%	76%	+$5,172	-$57,610	115.2%	$-56,955 (vs do-nothing $-52,020)
$920	21d	7 Aug 2026	$54.75	2/2	$15,643	$15,175	68%	76%	+$3,505	-$54,770	109.5%	$-54,115 (vs do-nothing $-49,180)
$895	7d	24 Jul 2026	$32.70	2/2	$28,029	$27,560	67%	76%	+$8,847	-$64,180	128.4%	$-63,525 (vs do-nothing $-58,590)
$900	10d	27 Jul 2026	$33.75	2/2	$20,250	$19,782	67%	76%	+$4,745	-$62,970	125.9%	$-62,315 (vs do-nothing $-57,380)
$910	14d	31 Jul 2026	$46.90	2/2	$20,100	$19,632	67%	76%	+$5,067	-$58,340	116.7%	$-57,685 (vs do-nothing $-52,750)
$905	12d	29 Jul 2026	$39.05	2/2	$19,525	$19,057	67%	76%	+$4,108	-$60,910	121.8%	$-60,255 (vs do-nothing $-55,320)
$915	21d	7 Aug 2026	$56.25	2/2	$16,071	$15,603	67%	75%	+$3,485	-$55,470	110.9%	$-54,815 (vs do-nothing $-49,880)
$885	5d	22 Jul 2026	$26.60	1/2	$15,960	$15,687	67%	76%	+$5,000	-$33,700	67.4%	$-35,840 (vs do-nothing $-30,905)
$905	14d	31 Jul 2026	$49.15	2/2	$21,064	$20,596	66%	75%	+$5,322	-$58,890	117.8%	$-58,235 (vs do-nothing $-53,300)
$895	10d	27 Jul 2026	$34.20	2/2	$20,520	$20,052	66%	75%	+$4,039	-$63,880	127.8%	$-63,225 (vs do-nothing $-58,290)
$900	12d	29 Jul 2026	$42.00	2/2	$21,000	$20,532	66%	75%	+$4,792	-$61,320	122.6%	$-60,665 (vs do-nothing $-55,730)
$890	7d	24 Jul 2026	$34.30	2/2	$29,400	$28,932	66%	75%	+$8,823	-$64,860	129.7%	$-64,205 (vs do-nothing $-59,270)
$910	21d	7 Aug 2026	$58.25	2/2	$16,643	$16,175	66%	75%	+$3,595	-$56,070	112.1%	$-55,415 (vs do-nothing $-50,480)
$900	14d	31 Jul 2026	$51.00	2/2	$21,857	$21,389	65%	75%	+$5,380	-$59,520	119.0%	$-58,865 (vs do-nothing $-53,930)
$905	21d	7 Aug 2026	$59.20	2/2	$16,914	$16,446	65%	75%	+$3,390	-$56,880	113.8%	$-56,225 (vs do-nothing $-51,290)
$895	12d	29 Jul 2026	$43.00	2/2	$21,500	$21,032	65%	75%	+$4,468	-$62,120	124.2%	$-61,465 (vs do-nothing $-56,530)
$890	10d	27 Jul 2026	$36.50	2/2	$21,900	$21,432	65%	74%	+$4,395	-$64,420	128.8%	$-63,765 (vs do-nothing $-58,830)
$880	5d	22 Jul 2026	$27.90	1/2	$16,740	$16,467	65%	75%	+$4,759	-$34,070	68.1%	$-36,210 (vs do-nothing $-31,275)
$885	7d	24 Jul 2026	$36.05	1/2	$15,450	$15,177	65%	75%	+$4,428	-$32,755	65.5%	$-34,895 (vs do-nothing $-29,960)
$900	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.10	2/2	$17,743	$17,275	64%	74%	+$3,944	-$57,300	114.6%	$-56,645 (vs do-nothing $-51,710)
$895	14d	31 Jul 2026	$52.80	2/2	$22,629	$22,160	64%	74%	+$5,390	-$60,160	120.3%	$-59,505 (vs do-nothing $-54,570)
$900	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.80	2/2	$15,386	$14,918	64%	74%	+$3,177	-$55,360	110.7%	$-54,705 (vs do-nothing $-49,770)
$890	12d	29 Jul 2026	$44.50	2/2	$22,250	$21,782	64%	74%	+$4,362	-$62,820	125.6%	$-62,165 (vs do-nothing $-57,230)
$885	10d	27 Jul 2026	$38.10	2/2	$22,860	$22,392	64%	74%	+$4,283	-$65,100	130.2%	$-64,445 (vs do-nothing $-59,510)
$895	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.90	2/2	$17,971	$17,503	63%	74%	+$3,650	-$58,140	116.3%	$-57,485 (vs do-nothing $-52,550)
$890	14d	31 Jul 2026	$54.20	2/2	$23,229	$22,760	63%	74%	+$5,202	-$60,880	121.8%	$-60,225 (vs do-nothing $-55,290)
$895	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.80	2/2	$15,386	$14,918	63%	74%	+$2,782	-$56,360	112.7%	$-55,705 (vs do-nothing $-50,770)
$880	7d	24 Jul 2026	$38.00	1/2	$16,286	$16,013	63%	74%	+$4,551	-$33,060	66.1%	$-35,200 (vs do-nothing $-30,265)
$875	5d	22 Jul 2026	$29.55	1/2	$17,730	$17,457	63%	74%	+$4,658	-$34,405	68.8%	$-36,545 (vs do-nothing $-31,610)
$885	12d	29 Jul 2026	$46.50	2/2	$23,250	$22,782	63%	73%	+$4,473	-$63,420	126.8%	$-62,765 (vs do-nothing $-57,830)
$890	21d	7 Aug 2026	$64.85	2/2	$18,529	$18,060	63%	73%	+$3,670	-$58,750	117.5%	$-58,095 (vs do-nothing $-53,160)
$890	28d	14 Aug 2026	$73.75	2/2	$15,804	$15,335	62%	73%	+$2,215	-$56,970	113.9%	$-56,315 (vs do-nothing $-51,380)
$880	10d	27 Jul 2026	$40.15	2/2	$24,090	$23,622	62%	73%	+$4,393	-$65,690	131.4%	$-65,035 (vs do-nothing $-60,100)
$885	14d	31 Jul 2026	$55.20	2/2	$23,657	$23,189	62%	73%	+$4,814	-$61,680	123.4%	$-61,025 (vs do-nothing $-56,090)
$885	21d	7 Aug 2026	$67.50	2/2	$19,286	$18,818	62%	73%	+$3,874	-$59,220	118.4%	$-58,565 (vs do-nothing $-53,630)
$880	12d	29 Jul 2026	$48.55	2/2	$24,275	$23,807	62%	73%	+$4,575	-$64,010	128.0%	$-63,355 (vs do-nothing $-58,420)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 03:39