FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $847.80

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1187.76 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $847.80 UNDERWATER $372.20 (30.5% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1187.76 (banked floor $1,175.97) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$30,514/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$468/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-69,988	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,257/mo

HEDGE COVER
$468/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$30,514/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1187.76 (probe: $1190C 14d) brings only $1,886/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$67,539

was $69,988 · 3% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,610

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,187.76 → $1,175.97

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1060C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$8.05	$1,610	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 9 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,233.47 (+45%) · daily UBB $1,238.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$119 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $945 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($15,257/mo); it brings $15,471/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $885/7d for $30,900/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1225/7d (99% survival, $480/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $44,942 (90% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 1.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-70,123 and cuts bleed by $468/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $945, 80% survival, $15,471/mo (E[net] $3,890/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $945	80%	$15,471	$3,890

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $3,890/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $945 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $15,471/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $980 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 20% → 13%) for $5,314/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $847.80 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1225

24 Jul

44.5%

99%

+0pp

$112

$480

-$14,991

Sell 2 × $1225 44.5% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.80 mid)

= $112 credit for the 7d cycle → $480/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1225)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1225.80)

99%

EV / mo

+$402

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

54% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-102/mo

median; plan ~$-70/mo after 68% keep · $-444 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$11,163

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,337 @ 77% POP

70% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $79.69/sh now → $56.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$55.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,225	27 Jul 2026	6d left	-$3.75/sh	-$750 cycle -$638	68% surv 52%	+$7,604 SAFE cap gain +$77,592
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,337	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.04/sh	+$207 cycle +$319	77% surv 70%	+$31,831 SAFE cap gain +$101,819

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$480/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1225 is at/above CC-SS $1187.76: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,035

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $1,225.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,238.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,212.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,213-1,225.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,225.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,225.00 (3.2σ)	$112	$8,354	+$78,342	+$982
+2.5%	$1,255.62 (3.4σ)	$-6,013	$8,581	+$78,569	+$982
+5%	$1,286.25 (3.7σ)	$-12,138	$8,807	+$78,795	+$982

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1187.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,507

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1225): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $519 (+$70,507 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $649 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-130, the opportunity cost of earning $480/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1005

24 Jul

18.5%

90%

20%

+5pp

$1,730

$7,414

-$8,057

$34,822

Sell 2 × $1005 18.5% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $9.03 mid)

= $1,730 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,414/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1005)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1014.02)

91%

EV / mo

+$4,232

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

62% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,968/mo

median; plan ~$2,698/mo after 68% keep · $16,700 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,520

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,167 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $65.38/sh now → $46.25 mid-life (likely $40.92–$72.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $1,005 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,036 (overshoots $31.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,067	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$11.87/sh	+$2,375 cycle +$4,105 [+$358…+$3,640] · 80% credit	74% surv 65%	-$20,382 NOT cap gain +$49,606
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,005	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.47/sh	+$493 cycle +$2,223 [-$393…+$1,493] · 63% credit	68% surv 52%	-$35,163 NOT cap gain +$34,825
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,007	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.36/sh	+$272 cycle +$2,002 [-$676…+$1,257] · 54% credit	68% surv 53%	-$34,928 NOT cap gain +$35,060
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,137	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.08/sh	+$17 cycle +$1,747 [-$2,729…+$1,288] · 40% credit	79% surv 74%	-$8,222 NOT cap gain +$61,766
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,167	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$7.42/sh	-$1,483 cycle +$247 [-$4,511…-$299] · 21% credit	82% surv 78%	-$3,500 NOT cap gain +$66,488
budget: banked $1,730 debit $1,483 (86% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$247 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $9,709/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,414/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	-51%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,946/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1005 is $183 below CC-SS $1187.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$34,822
… as % of IC ($50,000)	69.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	17.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,063

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.16/sh (~25% of the $8.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,014.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,005)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,238.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $994.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $995-1,014.02	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,014.02	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,005.00 (1.3σ)	$1,730	$-35,656	+$34,332	+$1,600
+2.5%	$1,030.12 (1.5σ)	$-3,295	$-35,470	+$34,518	-$3,425
+5%	$1,055.25 (1.7σ)	$-8,320	$-35,284	+$34,704	-$8,450
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-41,270	$-34,065	+$35,923	-$41,400

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1187.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,507

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1005): -$34,822

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,303 (+$35,685 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $649 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,952, the opportunity cost of earning $7,414/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $980

24 Jul

15.6%

87%

28%

+6pp

$2,370

$10,157

-$5,314

$39,182

Sell 2 × $980 15.6% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.32 mid)

= $2,370 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,157/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $980)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $992.33)

88%

EV / mo

+$5,200

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,132/mo

median; plan ~$3,490/mo after 68% keep · $21,944 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,650

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,157 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $63.76/sh now → $45.10 mid-life (likely $43.64–$73.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 653 simulated challenges: the $980 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,012 (overshoots $32.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,042	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.04/sh	+$2,408 cycle +$4,778 [+$265…+$3,405] · 79% credit	74% surv 65%	-$24,894 NOT cap gain +$45,094
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$980	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.02/sh	+$604 cycle +$2,974 [-$410…+$1,484] · 62% credit	68% surv 52%	-$39,597 NOT cap gain +$30,391
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$982	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.91/sh	+$383 cycle +$2,753 [-$677…+$1,240] · 53% credit	68% surv 53%	-$39,363 NOT cap gain +$30,625
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,112	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.33/sh	+$65 cycle +$2,435 [-$2,931…+$849] · 34% credit	80% surv 74%	-$12,718 NOT cap gain +$57,270
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,157	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$10.67/sh	-$2,134 cycle +$236 [-$5,676…-$1,590] · 13% credit	83% surv 80%	-$5,584 NOT cap gain +$64,404
budget: banked $2,370 debit $2,134 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$236 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,608/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,157/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,689/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $980 is $208 below CC-SS $1187.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$39,182
… as % of IC ($50,000)	78.4%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	19.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,083

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.96/sh (~25% of the $11.85 collected) or spot ≥ $992.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $980)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,238.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $970.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $970-992.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $992.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$980.00 (1.1σ)	$2,370	$-40,201	+$29,787	+$2,240
+2.5%	$1,004.50 (1.3σ)	$-2,530	$-40,019	+$29,969	-$2,660
+5%	$1,029.00 (1.5σ)	$-7,430	$-39,838	+$30,150	-$7,560
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-45,630	$-38,425	+$31,563	-$45,760

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1187.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,507

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $980): -$39,182

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,663 (+$31,325 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $649 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,312, the opportunity cost of earning $10,157/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $945

24 Jul

11.5%

80%

31%

+12pp

$3,610

$15,471

—

$44,942

Sell 2 × $945 11.5% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.73 mid)

= $3,610 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,471/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $945)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $963.73)

84%

EV / mo

+$6,484

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+12pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,895/mo

median; plan ~$4,688/mo after 68% keep · $26,396 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.8], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,088

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,162 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $61.48/sh now → $43.49 mid-life (likely $46.97–$72.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $18.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 932 simulated challenges: the $945 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $975 (overshoots $29.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,007	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.19/sh	+$2,438 cycle +$6,048 [+$101…+$2,608] · 77% credit	74% surv 66%	-$30,883 NOT cap gain +$39,105
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$945	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$3.74/sh	+$748 cycle +$4,358 [-$432…+$982] · 58% credit	68% surv 52%	-$45,472 NOT cap gain +$24,516
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$952	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.14/sh	+$28 cycle +$3,638 [-$1,300…+$210] · 30% credit	69% surv 55%	-$44,699 NOT cap gain +$25,289
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,077	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.58/sh	+$117 cycle +$3,727 [-$3,072…+$71] · 25% credit	80% surv 75%	-$18,686 NOT cap gain +$51,302
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,162	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$17.40/sh	-$3,479 cycle +$131 [-$7,561…-$3,908] · 1% credit	85% surv 83%	-$4,653 NOT cap gain +$65,335
budget: banked $3,610 debit $3,479 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $6,524/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,471/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,003/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $945 is $243 below CC-SS $1187.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,942
… as % of IC ($50,000)	89.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	22.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,123

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.51/sh (~25% of the $18.05 collected) or spot ≥ $963.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $945)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,238.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $935.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $936-963.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $963.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$945.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,610	$-46,220	+$23,768	+$3,480
+2.5%	$968.62 (1.0σ)	$-1,115	$-46,045	+$23,943	-$1,245
+5%	$992.25 (1.2σ)	$-5,840	$-45,870	+$24,118	-$5,970
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-51,390	$-44,185	+$25,803	-$51,520

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1187.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,507

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $945): -$44,942

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,423 (+$25,565 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $649 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,072, the opportunity cost of earning $15,471/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $885

24 Jul

4.4%

65%

75%

+15pp

$7,210

$30,900

+$15,429

$53,342

Sell 2 × $885 4.4% OTM over spot $847.80 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $37.45 mid)

= $7,210 credit for the 7d cycle → $30,900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $885)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $922.45)

75%

EV / mo

+$8,855

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+15pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$10,303/mo

median; plan ~$7,006/mo after 68% keep · $29,639 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

60%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$936

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,162 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $57.58/sh now → $40.73 mid-life (likely $53.33–$76.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $36.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,788 simulated challenges: the $885 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $915 (overshoots $30.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$947	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.23/sh	+$2,445 cycle +$9,655 [-$524…+$1,382] · 65% credit	75% surv 66%	-$39,719 NOT cap gain +$30,269
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$885	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$4.83/sh	+$967 cycle +$8,177 [-$534…+$446] · 45% credit	68% surv 52%	-$54,097 NOT cap gain +$15,891
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$892	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.26/sh	+$251 cycle +$7,461 [-$1,429…-$383] · 17% credit	69% surv 55%	-$53,320 NOT cap gain +$16,668
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,017	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.81/sh	+$162 cycle +$7,372 [-$3,822…-$1,241] · 12% credit	80% surv 75%	-$27,485 NOT cap gain +$42,503
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,162	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$24.40/sh	-$4,880 cycle +$2,330 [-$10,422…-$6,857]	90% surv 89%	-$2,454 NOT cap gain +$67,534
budget: banked $7,210 debit $4,880 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,330 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,082/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$30,900/mo
vs 50% target ($15,257/mo)	+103%
vs normal income ($30,514/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30,432/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $885 is $303 below CC-SS $1187.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$53,342
… as % of IC ($50,000)	106.7%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	26.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-70,268

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.01/sh (~25% of the $36.05 collected) or spot ≥ $922.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $885)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,238.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $876.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $876-922.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $922.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$885.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,210	$-55,064	+$14,924	+$7,080
+2.5%	$907.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,785	$-54,900	+$15,088	+$2,655
+5%	$929.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,640	$-54,736	+$15,252	-$1,770
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.1σ)	$-59,790	$-52,585	+$17,403	-$59,920

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1187.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,507

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $885): -$53,342

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,823 (+$17,165 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $649 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,472, the opportunity cost of earning $30,900/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (139 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 139 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.037 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$70,507 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $649

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$930	5d	22 Jul 2026	$13.75	2/2	$16,500	$16,032	81%	85%	+$7,511	-$48,802	97.6%	$-48,283 (vs do-nothing $-48,932)
$945	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.05	2/2	$15,471	$15,003	80%	84%	+$6,484	-$44,942	89.9%	$-44,423 (vs do-nothing $-45,072)
$925	5d	22 Jul 2026	$14.80	2/2	$17,760	$17,292	80%	84%	+$7,761	-$49,592	99.2%	$-49,073 (vs do-nothing $-49,722)
$942.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.65	2/2	$15,986	$15,518	80%	83%	+$6,623	-$45,322	90.6%	$-44,803 (vs do-nothing $-45,452)
$940	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.25	2/2	$16,500	$16,032	79%	83%	+$6,771	-$45,702	91.4%	$-45,183 (vs do-nothing $-45,832)
$937.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.75	2/2	$16,929	$16,460	78%	83%	+$6,814	-$46,102	92.2%	$-45,583 (vs do-nothing $-46,232)
$920	5d	22 Jul 2026	$16.05	2/2	$19,260	$18,792	78%	83%	+$8,157	-$50,342	100.7%	$-49,823 (vs do-nothing $-50,472)
$935	7d	24 Jul 2026	$20.45	2/2	$17,529	$17,060	78%	82%	+$6,948	-$46,462	92.9%	$-45,943 (vs do-nothing $-46,592)
$932.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.05	2/2	$18,043	$17,575	77%	82%	+$7,233	-$46,842	93.7%	$-46,323 (vs do-nothing $-46,972)
$930	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.80	2/2	$18,686	$18,218	77%	82%	+$7,469	-$47,192	94.4%	$-46,673 (vs do-nothing $-47,322)
$915	5d	22 Jul 2026	$17.20	2/2	$20,640	$20,172	77%	82%	+$8,333	-$51,112	102.2%	$-50,593 (vs do-nothing $-51,242)
$925	7d	24 Jul 2026	$23.10	2/2	$19,800	$19,332	75%	81%	+$7,396	-$47,932	95.9%	$-47,413 (vs do-nothing $-48,062)
$910	5d	22 Jul 2026	$18.55	2/2	$22,260	$21,792	75%	81%	+$8,644	-$51,842	103.7%	$-51,323 (vs do-nothing $-51,972)

Show 126 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 126.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$920	7d	24 Jul 2026	$24.40	2/2	$20,914	$20,446	74%	80%	+$7,542	-$48,672	97.3%	$-48,153 (vs do-nothing $-48,802)
$945	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.20	2/2	$15,514	$15,046	74%	79%	+$4,754	-$41,312	82.6%	$-40,793 (vs do-nothing $-41,442)
$905	5d	22 Jul 2026	$20.00	2/2	$24,000	$23,532	74%	80%	+$8,964	-$52,552	105.1%	$-52,033 (vs do-nothing $-52,682)
$915	7d	24 Jul 2026	$25.65	2/2	$21,986	$21,518	73%	79%	+$7,560	-$49,422	98.8%	$-48,903 (vs do-nothing $-49,552)
$940	14d	31 Jul 2026	$36.75	2/2	$15,750	$15,282	73%	79%	+$4,449	-$42,202	84.4%	$-41,683 (vs do-nothing $-42,332)
$930	12d	29 Jul 2026	$31.60	2/2	$15,800	$15,332	72%	79%	+$3,953	-$45,232	90.5%	$-44,713 (vs do-nothing $-45,362)
$920	10d	27 Jul 2026	$27.75	2/2	$16,650	$16,182	72%	79%	+$4,603	-$48,002	96.0%	$-47,483 (vs do-nothing $-48,132)
$900	5d	22 Jul 2026	$21.40	2/2	$25,680	$25,212	72%	79%	+$9,109	-$53,272	106.5%	$-52,753 (vs do-nothing $-53,402)
$935	14d	31 Jul 2026	$39.15	2/2	$16,779	$16,310	72%	79%	+$4,915	-$42,722	85.4%	$-42,203 (vs do-nothing $-42,852)
$910	7d	24 Jul 2026	$27.45	2/2	$23,529	$23,060	72%	78%	+$8,080	-$50,062	100.1%	$-49,543 (vs do-nothing $-50,192)
$925	12d	29 Jul 2026	$32.80	2/2	$16,400	$15,932	71%	78%	+$3,846	-$45,992	92.0%	$-45,473 (vs do-nothing $-46,122)
$915	10d	27 Jul 2026	$27.95	2/2	$16,770	$16,302	71%	78%	+$3,923	-$48,962	97.9%	$-48,443 (vs do-nothing $-49,092)
$930	14d	31 Jul 2026	$40.70	2/2	$17,443	$16,975	71%	78%	+$4,994	-$43,412	86.8%	$-42,893 (vs do-nothing $-43,542)
$920	12d	29 Jul 2026	$34.90	2/2	$17,450	$16,982	70%	77%	+$4,224	-$46,572	93.1%	$-46,053 (vs do-nothing $-46,702)
$905	7d	24 Jul 2026	$29.20	2/2	$25,029	$24,560	70%	78%	+$8,391	-$50,712	101.4%	$-50,193 (vs do-nothing $-50,842)
$895	5d	22 Jul 2026	$23.20	2/2	$27,840	$27,372	70%	78%	+$9,613	-$53,912	107.8%	$-53,393 (vs do-nothing $-54,042)
$925	14d	31 Jul 2026	$42.25	2/2	$18,107	$17,639	70%	77%	+$5,049	-$44,102	88.2%	$-43,583 (vs do-nothing $-44,232)
$910	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.60	2/2	$17,760	$17,292	70%	77%	+$4,071	-$49,632	99.3%	$-49,113 (vs do-nothing $-49,762)
$915	12d	29 Jul 2026	$35.95	2/2	$17,975	$17,507	69%	77%	+$4,049	-$47,362	94.7%	$-46,843 (vs do-nothing $-47,492)
$920	14d	31 Jul 2026	$43.90	2/2	$18,814	$18,346	69%	77%	+$5,123	-$44,772	89.5%	$-44,253 (vs do-nothing $-44,902)
$900	7d	24 Jul 2026	$30.80	2/2	$26,400	$25,932	69%	77%	+$8,671	-$51,392	102.8%	$-50,873 (vs do-nothing $-51,522)
$905	10d	27 Jul 2026	$30.95	2/2	$18,570	$18,102	69%	76%	+$3,996	-$50,362	100.7%	$-49,843 (vs do-nothing $-50,492)
$890	5d	22 Jul 2026	$24.75	2/2	$29,700	$29,232	69%	77%	+$9,692	-$54,602	109.2%	$-54,083 (vs do-nothing $-54,732)
$910	12d	29 Jul 2026	$38.30	2/2	$19,150	$18,682	68%	76%	+$4,494	-$47,892	95.8%	$-47,373 (vs do-nothing $-48,022)
$915	14d	31 Jul 2026	$45.55	2/2	$19,521	$19,053	68%	76%	+$5,172	-$45,442	90.9%	$-44,923 (vs do-nothing $-45,572)
$920	21d	7 Aug 2026	$54.75	2/2	$15,643	$15,175	68%	76%	+$3,505	-$42,602	85.2%	$-42,083 (vs do-nothing $-42,732)
$895	7d	24 Jul 2026	$32.70	2/2	$28,029	$27,560	67%	76%	+$8,847	-$52,012	104.0%	$-51,493 (vs do-nothing $-52,142)
$900	10d	27 Jul 2026	$33.75	2/2	$20,250	$19,782	67%	76%	+$4,745	-$50,802	101.6%	$-50,283 (vs do-nothing $-50,932)
$910	14d	31 Jul 2026	$46.90	2/2	$20,100	$19,632	67%	76%	+$5,067	-$46,172	92.3%	$-45,653 (vs do-nothing $-46,302)
$905	12d	29 Jul 2026	$39.05	2/2	$19,525	$19,057	67%	76%	+$4,108	-$48,742	97.5%	$-48,223 (vs do-nothing $-48,872)
$915	21d	7 Aug 2026	$56.25	2/2	$16,071	$15,603	67%	75%	+$3,485	-$43,302	86.6%	$-42,783 (vs do-nothing $-43,432)
$885	5d	22 Jul 2026	$26.60	1/2	$15,960	$15,687	67%	76%	+$5,000	-$27,616	55.2%	$-27,032 (vs do-nothing $-27,681)
$905	14d	31 Jul 2026	$49.15	2/2	$21,064	$20,596	66%	75%	+$5,322	-$46,722	93.4%	$-46,203 (vs do-nothing $-46,852)
$895	10d	27 Jul 2026	$34.20	2/2	$20,520	$20,052	66%	75%	+$4,039	-$51,712	103.4%	$-51,193 (vs do-nothing $-51,842)
$900	12d	29 Jul 2026	$42.00	2/2	$21,000	$20,532	66%	75%	+$4,792	-$49,152	98.3%	$-48,633 (vs do-nothing $-49,282)
$890	7d	24 Jul 2026	$34.30	2/2	$29,400	$28,932	66%	75%	+$8,823	-$52,692	105.4%	$-52,173 (vs do-nothing $-52,822)
$910	21d	7 Aug 2026	$58.25	2/2	$16,643	$16,175	66%	75%	+$3,595	-$43,902	87.8%	$-43,383 (vs do-nothing $-44,032)
$900	14d	31 Jul 2026	$51.00	2/2	$21,857	$21,389	65%	75%	+$5,380	-$47,352	94.7%	$-46,833 (vs do-nothing $-47,482)
$905	21d	7 Aug 2026	$59.20	2/2	$16,914	$16,446	65%	75%	+$3,390	-$44,712	89.4%	$-44,193 (vs do-nothing $-44,842)
$895	12d	29 Jul 2026	$43.00	2/2	$21,500	$21,032	65%	75%	+$4,468	-$49,952	99.9%	$-49,433 (vs do-nothing $-50,082)
$890	10d	27 Jul 2026	$36.50	2/2	$21,900	$21,432	65%	74%	+$4,395	-$52,252	104.5%	$-51,733 (vs do-nothing $-52,382)
$880	5d	22 Jul 2026	$27.90	1/2	$16,740	$16,467	65%	75%	+$4,759	-$27,986	56.0%	$-27,402 (vs do-nothing $-28,051)
$885	7d	24 Jul 2026	$36.05	1/2	$15,450	$15,177	65%	75%	+$4,428	-$26,671	53.3%	$-26,087 (vs do-nothing $-26,736)
$900	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.10	2/2	$17,743	$17,275	64%	74%	+$3,944	-$45,132	90.3%	$-44,613 (vs do-nothing $-45,262)
$895	14d	31 Jul 2026	$52.80	2/2	$22,629	$22,160	64%	74%	+$5,390	-$47,992	96.0%	$-47,473 (vs do-nothing $-48,122)
$900	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.80	2/2	$15,386	$14,918	64%	74%	+$3,177	-$43,192	86.4%	$-42,673 (vs do-nothing $-43,322)
$890	12d	29 Jul 2026	$44.50	2/2	$22,250	$21,782	64%	74%	+$4,362	-$50,652	101.3%	$-50,133 (vs do-nothing $-50,782)
$885	10d	27 Jul 2026	$38.10	2/2	$22,860	$22,392	64%	74%	+$4,283	-$52,932	105.9%	$-52,413 (vs do-nothing $-53,062)
$895	21d	7 Aug 2026	$62.90	2/2	$17,971	$17,503	63%	74%	+$3,650	-$45,972	91.9%	$-45,453 (vs do-nothing $-46,102)
$890	14d	31 Jul 2026	$54.20	2/2	$23,229	$22,760	63%	74%	+$5,202	-$48,712	97.4%	$-48,193 (vs do-nothing $-48,842)
$895	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.80	2/2	$15,386	$14,918	63%	74%	+$2,782	-$44,192	88.4%	$-43,673 (vs do-nothing $-44,322)
$880	7d	24 Jul 2026	$38.00	1/2	$16,286	$16,013	63%	74%	+$4,551	-$26,976	54.0%	$-26,392 (vs do-nothing $-27,041)
$875	5d	22 Jul 2026	$29.55	1/2	$17,730	$17,457	63%	74%	+$4,658	-$28,321	56.6%	$-27,737 (vs do-nothing $-28,386)
$885	12d	29 Jul 2026	$46.50	2/2	$23,250	$22,782	63%	73%	+$4,473	-$51,252	102.5%	$-50,733 (vs do-nothing $-51,382)
$890	21d	7 Aug 2026	$64.85	2/2	$18,529	$18,060	63%	73%	+$3,670	-$46,582	93.2%	$-46,063 (vs do-nothing $-46,712)
$890	28d	14 Aug 2026	$73.75	2/2	$15,804	$15,335	62%	73%	+$2,215	-$44,802	89.6%	$-44,283 (vs do-nothing $-44,932)
$880	10d	27 Jul 2026	$40.15	2/2	$24,090	$23,622	62%	73%	+$4,393	-$53,522	107.0%	$-53,003 (vs do-nothing $-53,652)
$885	14d	31 Jul 2026	$55.20	2/2	$23,657	$23,189	62%	73%	+$4,814	-$49,512	99.0%	$-48,993 (vs do-nothing $-49,642)
$885	21d	7 Aug 2026	$67.50	2/2	$19,286	$18,818	62%	73%	+$3,874	-$47,052	94.1%	$-46,533 (vs do-nothing $-47,182)
$880	12d	29 Jul 2026	$48.55	2/2	$24,275	$23,807	62%	73%	+$4,575	-$51,842	103.7%	$-51,323 (vs do-nothing $-51,972)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 09:48