FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $828.53

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1249.92 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $828.53 UNDERWATER $391.47 (32.1% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1249.92 (banked floor $1,238.10) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$28,286/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$527/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-86,540	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$14,143/mo

HEDGE COVER
$527/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$28,286/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
7.0 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1249.92 (probe: $1250C 14d) brings only $887/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,449

Hole (after banked)

$84,091

was $86,540 · 3% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,610

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,249.92 → $1,238.10

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1060C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$8.05	$1,610	2026-07-14

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 62 (live) · RSI 58 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 11 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,230.66 (+49%) · daily UBB $1,234.91 · 1-wk expected move ±$120 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $915 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($14,143/mo); it brings $15,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $855/7d for $29,529/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1145/7d (99% survival, $737/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $63,485 (127% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 2.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-86,780 and cuts bleed by $527/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 2 × $915, 78% survival, $15,000/mo (E[net] $2,800/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 7d	2 × $915	78%	$15,000	$2,800

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $2,800/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $915 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $15,000/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $950 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 22% → 15%) for $5,571/mo less (37% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $950 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $828.53 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1145

24 Jul

38.2%

99%

+0pp

$172

$737

-$14,263

$20,813

Sell 2 × $1145 38.2% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.07 mid)

= $172 credit for the 7d cycle → $737/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1145)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1146.07)

99%

EV / mo

+$599

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

51% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$47/mo

median; plan ~$32/mo after 68% keep · $140 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$10,055

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,261 @ 77% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $72.28/sh now → $51.13 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$50.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,145	27 Jul 2026	6d left	-$3.86/sh	-$772 cycle -$600	66% surv 52%	-$21,504 NOT cap gain +$65,036
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,261	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.43/sh	+$85 cycle +$257	77% surv 71%	+$3,509 SAFE cap gain +$90,049
reaches SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$737/mo
vs 50% target ($14,143/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($28,286/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$210/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1145 is $105 below CC-SS $1249.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,813
… as % of IC ($50,000)	41.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	10.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-86,582

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $1,146.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,145)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,133.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,134-1,146.07	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,146.07	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,145.00 (2.6σ)	$172	$-20,732	+$65,808	+$170
+2.5%	$1,173.62 (2.9σ)	$-5,553	$-20,520	+$66,020	-$5,555
+5%	$1,202.25 (3.1σ)	$-11,278	$-20,308	+$66,232	-$11,280
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.3σ)	$-14,828	$-20,177	+$66,363	-$14,830

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1249.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,540

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,397

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1145): -$20,813

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,956 (+$66,584 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,830, the opportunity cost of earning $737/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $990

24 Jul

19.5%

90%

20%

+5pp

$1,320

$5,657

-$9,343

$50,665

Sell 2 × $990 19.5% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.22 mid)

= $1,320 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,657/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $990)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $997.23)

91%

EV / mo

+$2,493

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,833/mo

median; plan ~$1,926/mo after 68% keep · $14,829 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,522

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,136 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $62.50/sh now → $44.21 mid-life (likely $38.31–$67.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 423 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,021 (overshoots $31.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,051	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.47/sh	+$1,693 cycle +$3,013 [-$4…+$3,087] · 75% credit	73% surv 65%	-$37,289 NOT cap gain +$49,251
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$990	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.26/sh	+$51 cycle +$1,371 [-$824…+$1,228] · 52% credit	67% surv 52%	-$51,680 NOT cap gain +$34,860
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,116	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.14/sh	+$28 cycle +$1,348 [-$2,244…+$1,418] · 42% credit	79% surv 74%	-$25,474 NOT cap gain +$61,066
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,136	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$4.07/sh	-$814 cycle +$506 [-$3,271…+$558] · 31% credit	81% surv 76%	-$22,167 NOT cap gain +$64,373
budget: banked $1,320 debit $814 (62% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$506 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,035/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,657/mo
vs 50% target ($14,143/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($28,286/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,130/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $990 is $260 below CC-SS $1249.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$50,665
… as % of IC ($50,000)	101.3%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	25.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-86,665

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.65/sh (~25% of the $6.60 collected) or spot ≥ $997.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $990)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $980.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $980-997.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $997.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$990.00 (1.3σ)	$1,320	$-51,731	+$34,809	+$1,318
+2.5%	$1,014.75 (1.6σ)	$-3,630	$-51,548	+$34,992	-$3,632
+5%	$1,039.50 (1.8σ)	$-8,580	$-51,365	+$35,175	-$8,582
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.3σ)	$-44,680	$-50,029	+$36,511	-$44,682

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1249.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,540

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,397

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $990): -$50,665

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,808 (+$36,732 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,682, the opportunity cost of earning $5,657/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $950

24 Jul

14.7%

85%

32%

+5pp

$2,200

$9,429

-$5,571

$57,785

Sell 2 × $950 14.7% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $11.75 mid)

= $2,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,429/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $950)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $961.75)

86%

EV / mo

+$3,145

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,973/mo

median; plan ~$2,702/mo after 68% keep · $21,841 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

25%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,285

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,121 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $59.97/sh now → $42.42 mid-life (likely $41.53–$67.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 749 simulated challenges: the $950 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $981 (overshoots $30.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,011	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.77/sh	+$1,755 cycle +$3,955 [-$420…+$2,369] · 68% credit	73% surv 65%	-$44,644 NOT cap gain +$41,896
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$950	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.13/sh	+$227 cycle +$2,427 [-$929…+$923] · 45% credit	67% surv 52%	-$58,920 NOT cap gain +$27,620
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$951	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.33/sh	+$66 cycle +$2,266 [-$1,118…+$714] · 41% credit	67% surv 53%	-$58,777 NOT cap gain +$27,763
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,076	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.51/sh	+$103 cycle +$2,303 [-$2,644…+$589] · 34% credit	79% surv 74%	-$32,814 NOT cap gain +$53,726
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,121	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$9.10/sh	-$1,819 cycle +$381 [-$4,980…-$1,439] · 13% credit	83% surv 79%	-$25,404 NOT cap gain +$61,136
budget: banked $2,200 debit $1,819 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$381 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,332/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,429/mo
vs 50% target ($14,143/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($28,286/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,901/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $950 is $300 below CC-SS $1249.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$57,785
… as % of IC ($50,000)	115.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	29.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-86,690

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.75/sh (~25% of the $11.00 collected) or spot ≥ $961.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $950)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $940.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $940-961.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $961.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$950.00 (1.0σ)	$2,200	$-59,147	+$27,393	+$2,198
+2.5%	$973.75 (1.2σ)	$-2,550	$-58,971	+$27,569	-$2,552
+5%	$997.50 (1.4σ)	$-7,300	$-58,796	+$27,744	-$7,302
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.3σ)	$-51,800	$-57,149	+$29,391	-$51,802

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1249.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,540

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,397

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $950): -$57,785

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,928 (+$29,612 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,802, the opportunity cost of earning $9,429/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $915

24 Jul

10.4%

78%

35%

+10pp

$3,500

$15,000

—

$63,485

Sell 2 × $915 10.4% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.70 mid)

= $3,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $915)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $933.70)

82%

EV / mo

+$4,079

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,764/mo

median; plan ~$3,919/mo after 68% keep · $31,428 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,672

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,136 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Buyback gross: $57.76/sh now → $40.86 mid-life (likely $43.93–$69.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,045 simulated challenges: the $915 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $944 (overshoots $29.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$976	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.95/sh	+$1,790 cycle +$5,290 [-$757…+$1,883] · 60% credit	74% surv 66%	-$50,568 NOT cap gain +$35,972
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$915	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.84/sh	+$369 cycle +$3,869 [-$1,024…+$579] · 38% credit	67% surv 52%	-$64,738 NOT cap gain +$21,802
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$916	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.04/sh	+$208 cycle +$3,708 [-$1,222…+$399] · 34% credit	67% surv 53%	-$64,593 NOT cap gain +$21,947
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,041	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.74/sh	+$149 cycle +$3,649 [-$3,061…+$69] · 26% credit	79% surv 74%	-$38,728 NOT cap gain +$47,812
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,136	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$17.34/sh	-$3,467 cycle +$33 [-$7,510…-$3,787] · 2% credit	87% surv 85%	-$22,640 NOT cap gain +$63,900
budget: banked $3,500 debit $3,467 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,881/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,000/mo
vs 50% target ($14,143/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($28,286/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,473/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $915 is $335 below CC-SS $1249.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$63,485
… as % of IC ($50,000)	127.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	32.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-86,780

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.38/sh (~25% of the $17.50 collected) or spot ≥ $933.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $915)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $905.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $906-933.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $933.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$915.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,500	$-65,106	+$21,434	+$3,498
+2.5%	$937.87 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,075	$-64,937	+$21,603	-$1,077
+5%	$960.75 (1.1σ)	$-5,650	$-64,768	+$21,772	-$5,652
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.3σ)	$-57,500	$-62,849	+$23,691	-$57,502

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1249.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,540

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,397

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $915): -$63,485

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-62,628 (+$23,912 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,502, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $855

24 Jul

3.2%

61%

82%

+14pp

$6,890

$29,529

+$14,529

$72,095

Sell 2 × $855 3.2% OTM over spot $828.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $37.48 mid)

= $6,890 credit for the 7d cycle → $29,529/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $855)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $892.48)

71%

EV / mo

+$2,422

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+14pp

62% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~6.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$8,037/mo

median; plan ~$5,465/mo after 68% keep · $39,086 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

64%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$746

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,131 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $53.97/sh now → $38.18 mid-life (likely $51.04–$74.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $34.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,926 simulated challenges: the $855 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $885 (overshoots $30.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$911	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$22.43/sh	+$4,486 cycle +$11,376 [+$1,131…+$3,239] · 88% credit	73% surv 65%	-$57,963 NOT cap gain +$28,577
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$855	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$2.92/sh	+$585 cycle +$7,475 [-$1,256…-$114] · 21% credit	67% surv 53%	-$73,575 NOT cap gain +$12,965
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$861	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.29/sh	+$59 cycle +$6,949 [-$1,912…-$681] · 13% credit	68% surv 55%	-$72,759 NOT cap gain +$13,781
Max even-money escape in the band	~$981	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.92/sh	+$185 cycle +$7,075 [-$3,953…-$1,344] · 11% credit	80% surv 75%	-$47,746 NOT cap gain +$38,794
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,131	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$24.13/sh	-$4,826 cycle +$2,064 [-$10,628…-$6,900]	90% surv 89%	-$21,647 NOT cap gain +$64,893
budget: banked $6,890 debit $4,826 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,064 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,512/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$29,529/mo
vs 50% target ($14,143/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($28,286/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$29,001/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $855 is $395 below CC-SS $1249.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$72,095
… as % of IC ($50,000)	144.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	36.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-87,145

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.61/sh (~25% of the $34.45 collected) or spot ≥ $892.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $855)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,234.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $846.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $846-892.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $892.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$855.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,890	$-74,160	+$12,380	+$6,888
+2.5%	$876.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,615	$-74,002	+$12,538	+$2,613
+5%	$897.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,660	$-73,844	+$12,696	-$1,662
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.3σ)	$-66,110	$-71,459	+$15,081	-$66,112

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1249.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,540

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,397

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $855): -$72,095

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,238 (+$15,302 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,112, the opportunity cost of earning $29,529/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (130 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 130 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.037 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$87,397 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,126

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$905	5d	22 Jul 2026	$11.80	2/2	$14,160	$13,633	79%	82%	+$3,132	-$66,625	133.2%	$-65,768 (vs do-nothing $-60,642)
$915	7d	24 Jul 2026	$17.50	2/2	$15,000	$14,473	78%	82%	+$4,079	-$63,485	127.0%	$-62,628 (vs do-nothing $-57,502)
$900	5d	22 Jul 2026	$12.90	2/2	$15,480	$14,953	77%	81%	+$3,308	-$67,405	134.8%	$-66,548 (vs do-nothing $-61,422)
$910	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.80	2/2	$16,114	$15,587	76%	81%	+$4,340	-$64,225	128.4%	$-63,368 (vs do-nothing $-58,242)
$895	5d	22 Jul 2026	$13.95	2/2	$16,740	$16,213	76%	80%	+$3,325	-$68,195	136.4%	$-67,338 (vs do-nothing $-62,212)
$905	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.80	2/2	$16,971	$16,444	75%	80%	+$4,291	-$65,025	130.0%	$-64,168 (vs do-nothing $-59,042)
$890	5d	22 Jul 2026	$15.20	2/2	$18,240	$17,713	75%	79%	+$3,478	-$68,945	137.9%	$-68,088 (vs do-nothing $-62,962)
$900	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.60	2/2	$18,514	$17,987	74%	79%	+$4,870	-$65,665	131.3%	$-64,808 (vs do-nothing $-59,682)
$885	5d	22 Jul 2026	$16.80	2/2	$20,160	$19,633	73%	78%	+$3,940	-$69,625	139.2%	$-68,768 (vs do-nothing $-63,642)
$895	7d	24 Jul 2026	$22.45	2/2	$19,243	$18,715	73%	79%	+$4,575	-$66,495	133.0%	$-65,638 (vs do-nothing $-60,512)
$900	10d	27 Jul 2026	$23.90	2/2	$14,340	$13,813	72%	78%	+$2,473	-$65,205	130.4%	$-64,348 (vs do-nothing $-59,222)
$910	12d	29 Jul 2026	$28.55	2/2	$14,275	$13,748	72%	78%	+$2,130	-$62,275	124.5%	$-61,418 (vs do-nothing $-56,292)
$915	14d	31 Jul 2026	$33.50	2/2	$14,357	$13,830	72%	78%	+$2,871	-$60,285	120.6%	$-59,428 (vs do-nothing $-54,302)

Show 117 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 117.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$890	7d	24 Jul 2026	$23.90	2/2	$20,486	$19,958	71%	78%	+$4,734	-$67,205	134.4%	$-66,348 (vs do-nothing $-61,222)
$880	5d	22 Jul 2026	$17.85	2/2	$21,420	$20,893	71%	77%	+$3,629	-$70,415	140.8%	$-69,558 (vs do-nothing $-64,432)
$905	12d	29 Jul 2026	$29.30	2/2	$14,650	$14,123	71%	77%	+$1,856	-$63,125	126.2%	$-62,268 (vs do-nothing $-57,142)
$910	14d	31 Jul 2026	$35.65	2/2	$15,279	$14,751	71%	78%	+$3,234	-$60,855	121.7%	$-59,998 (vs do-nothing $-54,872)
$895	10d	27 Jul 2026	$24.75	2/2	$14,850	$14,323	71%	77%	+$2,178	-$66,035	132.1%	$-65,178 (vs do-nothing $-60,052)
$905	14d	31 Jul 2026	$37.00	2/2	$15,857	$15,330	70%	77%	+$3,232	-$61,585	123.2%	$-60,728 (vs do-nothing $-55,602)
$900	12d	29 Jul 2026	$31.35	2/2	$15,675	$15,148	70%	77%	+$2,204	-$63,715	127.4%	$-62,858 (vs do-nothing $-57,732)
$885	7d	24 Jul 2026	$25.40	2/2	$21,771	$21,244	70%	77%	+$4,873	-$67,905	135.8%	$-67,048 (vs do-nothing $-61,922)
$890	10d	27 Jul 2026	$26.20	2/2	$15,720	$15,193	70%	77%	+$2,200	-$66,745	133.5%	$-65,888 (vs do-nothing $-60,762)
$875	5d	22 Jul 2026	$19.30	2/2	$23,160	$22,633	70%	76%	+$3,678	-$71,125	142.2%	$-70,268 (vs do-nothing $-65,142)
$900	14d	31 Jul 2026	$38.75	2/2	$16,607	$16,080	69%	76%	+$3,378	-$62,235	124.5%	$-61,378 (vs do-nothing $-56,252)
$895	12d	29 Jul 2026	$33.20	2/2	$16,600	$16,073	69%	76%	+$2,424	-$64,345	128.7%	$-63,488 (vs do-nothing $-58,362)
$885	10d	27 Jul 2026	$28.05	2/2	$16,830	$16,303	69%	76%	+$2,416	-$67,375	134.7%	$-66,518 (vs do-nothing $-61,392)
$895	14d	31 Jul 2026	$39.65	2/2	$16,993	$16,465	68%	76%	+$3,137	-$63,055	126.1%	$-62,198 (vs do-nothing $-57,072)
$880	7d	24 Jul 2026	$27.10	2/2	$23,229	$22,701	68%	75%	+$3,769	-$68,565	137.1%	$-67,708 (vs do-nothing $-62,582)
$890	12d	29 Jul 2026	$34.80	2/2	$17,400	$16,873	68%	76%	+$2,489	-$65,025	130.0%	$-64,168 (vs do-nothing $-59,042)
$870	5d	22 Jul 2026	$20.90	2/2	$25,080	$24,553	68%	75%	+$3,784	-$71,805	143.6%	$-70,948 (vs do-nothing $-65,822)
$900	21d	7 Aug 2026	$49.95	2/2	$14,271	$13,744	68%	76%	+$2,176	-$59,995	120.0%	$-59,138 (vs do-nothing $-54,012)
$880	10d	27 Jul 2026	$29.75	2/2	$17,850	$17,323	67%	75%	+$2,496	-$68,035	136.1%	$-67,178 (vs do-nothing $-62,052)
$890	14d	31 Jul 2026	$41.60	2/2	$17,829	$17,301	67%	76%	+$3,322	-$63,665	127.3%	$-62,808 (vs do-nothing $-57,682)
$885	12d	29 Jul 2026	$36.30	2/2	$18,150	$17,623	67%	75%	+$2,474	-$65,725	131.4%	$-64,868 (vs do-nothing $-59,742)
$875	7d	24 Jul 2026	$28.95	2/2	$24,814	$24,287	67%	75%	+$3,977	-$69,195	138.4%	$-68,338 (vs do-nothing $-63,212)
$895	21d	7 Aug 2026	$51.85	2/2	$14,814	$14,287	67%	75%	+$2,249	-$60,615	121.2%	$-59,758 (vs do-nothing $-54,632)
$885	14d	31 Jul 2026	$43.00	2/2	$18,429	$17,901	66%	75%	+$2,578	-$64,385	128.8%	$-63,528 (vs do-nothing $-58,402)
$865	5d	22 Jul 2026	$22.50	2/2	$27,000	$26,473	66%	74%	+$3,764	-$72,485	145.0%	$-71,628 (vs do-nothing $-66,502)
$875	10d	27 Jul 2026	$30.65	2/2	$18,390	$17,863	66%	74%	+$2,048	-$68,855	137.7%	$-67,998 (vs do-nothing $-62,872)
$880	12d	29 Jul 2026	$38.00	2/2	$19,000	$18,473	66%	74%	+$2,528	-$66,385	132.8%	$-65,528 (vs do-nothing $-60,402)
$890	21d	7 Aug 2026	$52.40	2/2	$14,971	$14,444	66%	75%	+$1,921	-$61,505	123.0%	$-60,648 (vs do-nothing $-55,522)
$870	7d	24 Jul 2026	$30.35	2/2	$26,014	$25,487	65%	74%	+$3,724	-$69,915	139.8%	$-69,058 (vs do-nothing $-63,932)
$880	14d	31 Jul 2026	$44.65	2/2	$19,136	$18,608	65%	74%	+$2,548	-$65,055	130.1%	$-64,198 (vs do-nothing $-59,072)
$885	21d	7 Aug 2026	$54.85	2/2	$15,671	$15,144	65%	74%	+$2,123	-$62,015	124.0%	$-61,158 (vs do-nothing $-56,032)
$875	12d	29 Jul 2026	$38.85	2/2	$19,425	$18,898	65%	74%	+$2,125	-$67,215	134.4%	$-66,358 (vs do-nothing $-61,232)
$870	10d	27 Jul 2026	$33.35	2/2	$20,010	$19,483	65%	74%	+$2,631	-$69,315	138.6%	$-68,458 (vs do-nothing $-63,332)
$860	5d	22 Jul 2026	$24.25	1/2	$14,550	$14,025	64%	73%	+$1,896	-$36,567	73.1%	$-38,702 (vs do-nothing $-33,576)
$880	21d	7 Aug 2026	$55.95	2/2	$15,986	$15,458	64%	74%	+$1,924	-$62,795	125.6%	$-61,938 (vs do-nothing $-56,812)
$875	14d	31 Jul 2026	$47.05	2/2	$20,164	$19,637	64%	74%	+$2,814	-$65,575	131.1%	$-64,718 (vs do-nothing $-59,592)
$865	7d	24 Jul 2026	$31.65	2/2	$27,129	$26,601	64%	73%	+$3,310	-$70,655	141.3%	$-69,798 (vs do-nothing $-64,672)
$870	12d	29 Jul 2026	$41.25	2/2	$20,625	$20,098	64%	73%	+$2,464	-$67,735	135.5%	$-66,878 (vs do-nothing $-61,752)
$865	10d	27 Jul 2026	$34.45	2/2	$20,670	$20,143	64%	73%	+$2,205	-$70,095	140.2%	$-69,238 (vs do-nothing $-64,112)
$875	21d	7 Aug 2026	$58.15	2/2	$16,614	$16,087	63%	73%	+$2,024	-$63,355	126.7%	$-62,498 (vs do-nothing $-57,372)
$870	14d	31 Jul 2026	$48.35	2/2	$20,721	$20,194	63%	73%	+$2,581	-$66,315	132.6%	$-65,458 (vs do-nothing $-60,332)
$875	28d	14 Aug 2026	$67.15	2/2	$14,389	$13,862	63%	73%	+$1,042	-$61,555	123.1%	$-60,698 (vs do-nothing $-55,572)
$865	12d	29 Jul 2026	$43.15	2/2	$21,575	$21,048	63%	73%	+$2,521	-$68,355	136.7%	$-67,498 (vs do-nothing $-62,372)
$860	7d	24 Jul 2026	$32.55	2/2	$27,900	$27,373	63%	72%	+$2,476	-$71,475	142.9%	$-70,618 (vs do-nothing $-65,492)
$870	21d	7 Aug 2026	$60.30	2/2	$17,229	$16,701	63%	73%	+$2,095	-$63,925	127.8%	$-63,068 (vs do-nothing $-57,942)
$855	5d	22 Jul 2026	$26.00	1/2	$15,600	$15,075	63%	72%	+$1,844	-$36,892	73.8%	$-39,027 (vs do-nothing $-33,901)
$870	28d	14 Aug 2026	$69.30	2/2	$14,850	$14,323	62%	72%	+$1,107	-$62,125	124.2%	$-61,268 (vs do-nothing $-56,142)
$860	10d	27 Jul 2026	$36.30	2/2	$21,780	$21,253	62%	72%	+$2,177	-$70,725	141.4%	$-69,868 (vs do-nothing $-64,742)
$865	14d	31 Jul 2026	$49.85	2/2	$21,364	$20,837	62%	72%	+$2,407	-$67,015	134.0%	$-66,158 (vs do-nothing $-61,032)
$865	21d	7 Aug 2026	$61.95	2/2	$17,700	$17,173	62%	72%	+$2,008	-$64,595	129.2%	$-63,738 (vs do-nothing $-58,612)
$865	28d	14 Aug 2026	$71.25	2/2	$15,268	$14,740	62%	72%	+$1,119	-$62,735	125.5%	$-61,878 (vs do-nothing $-56,752)
$860	12d	29 Jul 2026	$45.40	2/2	$22,700	$22,173	61%	72%	+$2,832	-$68,905	137.8%	$-68,048 (vs do-nothing $-62,922)
$855	7d	24 Jul 2026	$34.45	1/2	$14,764	$14,239	61%	71%	+$1,211	-$36,047	72.1%	$-38,182 (vs do-nothing $-33,056)
$860	14d	31 Jul 2026	$52.15	2/2	$22,350	$21,823	61%	72%	+$2,547	-$67,555	135.1%	$-66,698 (vs do-nothing $-61,572)
$860	21d	7 Aug 2026	$64.05	2/2	$18,300	$17,773	61%	72%	+$2,034	-$65,175	130.3%	$-64,318 (vs do-nothing $-59,192)
$855	10d	27 Jul 2026	$38.20	2/2	$22,920	$22,393	61%	72%	+$2,128	-$71,345	142.7%	$-70,488 (vs do-nothing $-65,362)
$860	28d	14 Aug 2026	$73.45	2/2	$15,739	$15,212	61%	72%	+$1,175	-$63,295	126.6%	$-62,438 (vs do-nothing $-57,312)
$850	5d	22 Jul 2026	$27.75	1/2	$16,650	$16,125	61%	71%	+$1,724	-$37,217	74.4%	$-39,352 (vs do-nothing $-34,226)
$855	12d	29 Jul 2026	$47.00	2/2	$23,500	$22,973	60%	71%	+$2,624	-$69,585	139.2%	$-68,728 (vs do-nothing $-63,602)
$855	14d	31 Jul 2026	$54.35	2/2	$23,293	$22,765	60%	71%	+$2,617	-$68,115	136.2%	$-67,258 (vs do-nothing $-62,132)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 21:37