FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $839.85

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1248.92 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $839.85 UNDERWATER $380.15 (31.2% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1248.92 (banked floor $1,227.59) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$24,257/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$543/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-84,340	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$12,129/mo

HEDGE COVER
$543/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$24,257/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
8.2 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $1248.92 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $955C (14d, $8,421/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$4,427

Hole (after banked)

$79,913

was $84,340 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,250

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,248.92 → $1,227.59

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$6.25	$1,250	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 57 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 15 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,249.83 (+49%) · daily UBB $1,038.69 · 1-wk expected move ±$117 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $935 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 89%, breach 11%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($12,129/mo); it brings $12,150/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $900/2d for $25,650/mo, but breach risk rises to 21% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1090/2d (99+% survival, $600/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $61,974 (124% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 2.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-84,390 and cuts bleed by $543/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · sell 2 × $935, 89% survival, $12,150/mo (E[net] $5,477/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 2d	2 × $935	89%	$12,150	$5,477
NEXT FRIDAY	7 Aug 2026 · 9d	2 × $935	77%	$12,567	$746

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $810 with probability 86%; on the 14% touch you roll, paying $4,333 to close and taking $1,856 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,477) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 2d · E[net] $5,477/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $935 (50% normal), 89% survival, breach 11%, $12,150/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $940 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 90% (breach 11% → 10%) for $1,350/mo less (11% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $839.85 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1090

31 Jul

29.8%

99+%hist 100%

0%hist 1%

-1pp

$40

$600

-$11,550

$31,744

Sell 2 × $1090 29.8% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid)

= $40 credit for the 2d cycle → $600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1090)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1090.35)

99+%

EV / mo

+$599

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-515/mo

median; plan ~$-350/mo after 68% keep · $-3,729 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,011

Free roll-up

+$35/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,280 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $35.71/sh now → $25.26 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,090	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$7.98/sh	+$1,595 cycle +$1,635	65% surv 52%	-$30,472 NOT cap gain +$53,868
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,105	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.28/sh	+$255 cycle +$295	68% surv 58%	-$28,648 NOT cap gain +$55,692
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,280	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.18/sh	+$35 cycle +$75	84% surv 81%	+$7,672 SAFE cap gain +$92,012
reaches SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$600/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$57/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1090 is $159 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,744
… as % of IC ($50,000)	63.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	16.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,369

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $1,090.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,090)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,079.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,079-1,090.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,090.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,090.00 (4.0σ)	$40	$-32,068	+$52,272	-$506
+2.5%	$1,117.25 (4.4σ)	$-5,410	$-31,828	+$52,512	-$5,956
+5%	$1,144.50 (4.9σ)	$-10,860	$-31,588	+$52,752	-$11,406
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.1σ)	$-25,960	$-30,924	+$53,416	-$26,506

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1090): -$31,744

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,669 (+$53,671 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,506, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $952.50

31 Jul

13.4%

92%hist 100%

15%hist 5%

+5pp

$550

$8,250

-$3,900

$58,734

Sell 2 × $952.50 13.4% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $2.98 mid)

= $550 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $952.50)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $955.48)

93%

EV / mo

+$3,877

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

57% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,689/mo

median; plan ~$3,188/mo after 68% keep · $18,168 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.0], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,864

Free roll-up

+$47/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,143 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $31.21/sh now → $22.07 mid-life (likely $23.59–$49.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 286 simulated challenges: the $952 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $989 (overshoots $36.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$952	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.17/sh	+$1,834 cycle +$2,384 [+$1,302…+$2,129] · 95% credit	65% surv 52%	-$58,433 NOT cap gain +$25,907
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,098	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$8.44/sh	+$1,689 cycle +$2,239 [-$1,306…+$1,749] · 62% credit	81% surv 78%	-$28,270 NOT cap gain +$56,070
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$973	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.13/sh	+$226 cycle +$776 [-$1,196…+$250] · 42% credit	70% surv 60%	-$55,834 NOT cap gain +$28,506
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,143	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.55/sh	+$110 cycle +$660 [-$3,442…+$54] · 28% credit	85% surv 83%	-$20,453 NOT cap gain +$63,887
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,250/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,707/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $952.50 is $296 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$58,734
… as % of IC ($50,000)	117.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	29.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,385

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.69/sh (~25% of the $2.75 collected) or spot ≥ $955.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $952)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $942.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $943-955.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $955.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$952.50 (1.8σ)	$550	$-60,268	+$24,072	+$4
+2.5%	$976.31 (2.2σ)	$-4,212	$-60,058	+$24,282	-$4,758
+5%	$1,000.12 (2.6σ)	$-8,975	$-59,849	+$24,491	-$9,521
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.1σ)	$-52,950	$-57,914	+$26,426	-$53,496

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $952.50): -$58,734

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,659 (+$26,681 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,496, the opportunity cost of earning $8,250/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $940

31 Jul

11.9%

90%hist 100%

20%hist 5%

+7pp

$720

$10,800

-$1,350

$61,064

Sell 2 × $940 11.9% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $3.85 mid)

= $720 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $940)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $943.85)

91%

EV / mo

+$4,478

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,296/mo

median; plan ~$4,281/mo after 68% keep · $20,022 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,636

Free roll-up

+$47/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,130 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $30.80/sh now → $21.78 mid-life (likely $22.82–$45.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$18.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 384 simulated challenges: the $940 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $974 (overshoots $33.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$940	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.25/sh	+$1,850 cycle +$2,570 [+$1,390…+$2,102] · 96% credit	65% surv 52%	-$60,858 NOT cap gain +$23,482
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,085	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$8.37/sh	+$1,675 cycle +$2,395 [-$903…+$1,643] · 65% credit	81% surv 78%	-$30,724 NOT cap gain +$53,616
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$960	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.22/sh	+$244 cycle +$964 [-$956…+$226] · 42% credit	70% surv 61%	-$58,256 NOT cap gain +$26,084
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,130	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.54/sh	+$107 cycle +$827 [-$2,918…+$24] · 27% credit	85% surv 83%	-$22,896 NOT cap gain +$61,444
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,800/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	-11%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	45% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,257/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $940 is $309 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$61,064
… as % of IC ($50,000)	122.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	30.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,390

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $943.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $940)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $930.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $931-943.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $943.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$940.00 (1.6σ)	$720	$-62,708	+$21,632	+$174
+2.5%	$963.50 (2.0σ)	$-3,980	$-62,501	+$21,839	-$4,526
+5%	$987.00 (2.4σ)	$-8,680	$-62,294	+$22,046	-$9,226
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.1σ)	$-55,280	$-60,244	+$24,096	-$55,826

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $940): -$61,064

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,989 (+$24,351 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,826, the opportunity cost of earning $10,800/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $935

31 Jul

11.3%

89%hist 99%

22%hist 13%

+8pp

$810

$12,150

—

$61,974

Sell 2 × $935 11.3% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $4.30 mid)

= $810 credit for the 2d cycle → $12,150/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $935)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $939.30)

90%

EV / mo

+$4,820

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

61% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,549/mo

median; plan ~$4,453/mo after 68% keep · $25,350 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,523

Free roll-up

+$47/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,155 @ 87% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $30.63/sh now → $21.66 mid-life (likely $23.18–$47.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 406 simulated challenges: the $935 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $971 (overshoots $35.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$935	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.28/sh	+$1,856 cycle +$2,666 [+$1,367…+$2,110] · 97% credit	65% surv 52%	-$61,806 NOT cap gain +$22,534
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,080	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$8.34/sh	+$1,669 cycle +$2,479 [-$1,128…+$1,608] · 64% credit	81% surv 78%	-$31,684 NOT cap gain +$52,656
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$955	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.25/sh	+$251 cycle +$1,061 [-$1,056…+$219] · 40% credit	70% surv 61%	-$59,203 NOT cap gain +$25,137
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,125	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.53/sh	+$105 cycle +$915 [-$3,221…-$12] · 25% credit	85% surv 83%	-$23,852 NOT cap gain +$60,488
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,155	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$3.83/sh	-$767 cycle +$43 [-$4,412…-$918] · 7% credit	87% surv 86%	-$18,460 NOT cap gain +$65,880
budget: banked $810 debit $767 (95% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,863/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$12,150/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,607/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $935 is $314 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$61,974
… as % of IC ($50,000)	123.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	31.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,390

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.05 collected) or spot ≥ $939.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $935)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $925.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $926-939.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $939.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$935.00 (1.5σ)	$810	$-63,662	+$20,678	+$264
+2.5%	$958.37 (1.9σ)	$-3,865	$-63,456	+$20,884	-$4,411
+5%	$981.75 (2.3σ)	$-8,540	$-63,250	+$21,090	-$9,086
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.1σ)	$-56,190	$-61,154	+$23,186	-$56,736

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $935): -$61,974

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,899 (+$23,441 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,736, the opportunity cost of earning $12,150/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $900

31 Jul

7.2%

79%hist 96%

43%hist 28%

+12pp

$1,710

$25,650

+$13,500

$68,074

Sell 2 × $900 7.2% OTM over spot $839.85 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $8.78 mid)

= $1,710 credit for the 2d cycle → $25,650/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $900)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $908.77)

82%

EV / mo

+$5,431

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+12pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$11,019/mo

median; plan ~$7,493/mo after 68% keep · $35,039 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

28%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,461

Free roll-up

+$47/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,160 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $29.49/sh now → $20.85 mid-life (likely $24.55–$46.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 828 simulated challenges: the $900 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $935 (overshoots $34.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$900	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$9.46/sh	+$1,892 cycle +$3,602 [+$1,367…+$1,882] · 97% credit	65% surv 52%	-$68,178 NOT cap gain +$16,162
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,015	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$14.86/sh	+$2,972 cycle +$4,682 [+$575…+$2,758] · 80% credit	79% surv 74%	-$43,053 NOT cap gain +$41,287
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$920	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.48/sh	+$295 cycle +$2,005 [-$983…+$157] · 36% credit	70% surv 61%	-$65,566 NOT cap gain +$18,774
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,090	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.43/sh	+$87 cycle +$1,797 [-$3,206…-$299] · 15% credit	85% surv 83%	-$30,278 NOT cap gain +$54,062
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,160	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$7.91/sh	-$1,582 cycle +$128 [-$5,499…-$2,118]	90% surv 89%	-$17,332 NOT cap gain +$67,008
budget: banked $1,710 debit $1,582 (93% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$128 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,530/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$25,650/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	+111%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$25,107/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $900 is $349 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$68,074
… as % of IC ($50,000)	136.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	34.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,385

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.14/sh (~25% of the $8.55 collected) or spot ≥ $908.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $900)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $891.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $891-908.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $908.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$900.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,710	$-70,070	+$14,270	+$1,164
+2.5%	$922.50 (1.3σ)	$-2,790	$-69,872	+$14,468	-$3,336
+5%	$945.00 (1.7σ)	$-7,290	$-69,674	+$14,666	-$7,836
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (6.1σ)	$-62,290	$-67,254	+$17,086	-$62,836

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $900): -$68,074

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,999 (+$17,341 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,836, the opportunity cost of earning $25,650/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 9d · E[net] $746/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $935 (50% normal), 77% survival, breach 23%, $12,567/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $972.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 23% → 16%) for $4,367/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $972.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $839.85 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1210

7 Aug

44.1%

99%hist 100%

3%hist 1%

-1pp

$164

$547

-$12,020

$7,620

Sell 2 × $1210 44.1% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.15 mid)

= $164 credit for the 9d cycle → $547/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1210)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1211.14)

99%

EV / mo

+$348

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

47% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-128/mo

median; plan ~$-87/mo after 68% keep · $-687 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$10,400

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,270 @ 73% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $74.65/sh now → $52.82 mid-life (likely $34.56–$68.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$52.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 60 simulated challenges: the $1,210 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 9, at $1,253 (overshoots $43.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,270	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.35/sh	+$271 cycle +$435 [-$289…+$3,987] · 72% credit	73% surv 64%	+$5,944 SAFE cap gain +$90,284
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,210	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$9.12/sh	-$1,824 cycle -$1,660 [-$1,855…+$1,119] · 38% credit	64% surv 52%	-$8,711 NOT cap gain +$75,629

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$547/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1210 is $39 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,620
… as % of IC ($50,000)	15.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	3.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,405

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $1,211.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,197.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,198-1,211.14	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,211.14	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,210.00 (2.8σ)	$164	$-6,888	+$77,452	-$382
+2.5%	$1,240.25 (3.0σ)	$-5,886	$-6,621	+$77,719	-$2,382
+5%	$1,270.50 (3.3σ)	$-11,936	$-6,355	+$77,985	-$2,382

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1210): -$7,620

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,545 (+$77,795 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,382, the opportunity cost of earning $547/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1020

7 Aug

21.5%

91%hist 100%

20%hist 5%

+2pp

$1,400

$4,667

-$7,900

$44,384

Sell 2 × $1020 21.5% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $7.60 mid)

= $1,400 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,667/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1020)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1027.60)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,959

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,215/mo

median; plan ~$1,506/mo after 68% keep · $11,289 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,505

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,120 @ 77% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $62.93/sh now → $44.53 mid-life (likely $38.64–$64.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 487 simulated challenges: the $1,020 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,052 (overshoots $31.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,080	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$5.46/sh	+$1,093 cycle +$2,493 [-$129…+$2,633] · 71% credit	73% surv 65%	-$31,671 NOT cap gain +$52,669
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,095	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$55 cycle +$1,455 [-$1,364…+$1,389] · 48% credit	75% surv 68%	-$29,576 NOT cap gain +$54,764
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,020	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$3.64/sh	-$728 cycle +$672 [-$1,573…+$511] · 33% credit	64% surv 53%	-$46,052 NOT cap gain +$38,288
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,120	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$6.66/sh	-$1,332 cycle +$68 [-$2,969…-$238] · 24% credit	77% surv 72%	-$25,743 NOT cap gain +$58,597
budget: banked $1,400 debit $1,332 (95% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$68 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $12,622/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,667/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	-62%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,124/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1020 is $229 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,384
… as % of IC ($50,000)	88.8%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	22.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,460

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.75/sh (~25% of the $7.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,027.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,020)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,009.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,010-1,027.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,027.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,020.00 (1.4σ)	$1,400	$-45,324	+$39,016	+$854
+2.5%	$1,045.50 (1.6σ)	$-3,700	$-45,099	+$39,241	-$4,246
+5%	$1,071.00 (1.7σ)	$-8,800	$-44,875	+$39,465	-$9,346
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.9σ)	$-38,600	$-43,564	+$40,776	-$39,146

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1020): -$44,384

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,309 (+$41,031 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,146, the opportunity cost of earning $4,667/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $972.50

7 Aug

15.8%

84%hist 99%

34%hist 18%

+4pp

$2,460

$8,200

-$4,367

$52,824

Sell 2 × $972.50 15.8% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $12.98 mid)

= $2,460 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $972.50)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $985.48)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,941

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,523/mo

median; plan ~$2,396/mo after 68% keep · $17,567 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,030

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,098 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $60.00/sh now → $42.45 mid-life (likely $43.27–$68.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$30.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 796 simulated challenges: the $972 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,006 (overshoots $33.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,033	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.08/sh	+$1,216 cycle +$3,676 [-$502…+$1,773] · 62% credit	74% surv 66%	-$40,405 NOT cap gain +$43,935
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,048	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.96/sh	+$192 cycle +$2,652 [-$1,768…+$558] · 35% credit	75% surv 68%	-$38,297 NOT cap gain +$46,043
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$972	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$2.51/sh	-$502 cycle +$1,958 [-$1,687…+$24] · 26% credit	64% surv 53%	-$54,683 NOT cap gain +$29,657
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,098	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$12.10/sh	-$2,420 cycle +$40 [-$5,096…-$2,278] · 8% credit	80% surv 76%	-$30,469 NOT cap gain +$53,871
budget: banked $2,460 debit $2,420 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,118/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,200/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,657/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $972.50 is $276 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$52,824
… as % of IC ($50,000)	105.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	26.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,475

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.08/sh (~25% of the $12.30 collected) or spot ≥ $985.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $972)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $962.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $963-985.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $985.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$972.50 (1.0σ)	$2,460	$-54,182	+$30,158	+$1,914
+2.5%	$996.81 (1.2σ)	$-2,402	$-53,968	+$30,372	-$2,948
+5%	$1,021.12 (1.4σ)	$-7,265	$-53,754	+$30,586	-$7,811
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.9σ)	$-47,040	$-52,004	+$32,336	-$47,586

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $972.50): -$52,824

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,749 (+$32,591 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,586, the opportunity cost of earning $8,200/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $935

7 Aug

11.3%

77%hist 96%

49%hist 28%

+9pp

$3,770

$12,567

—

$59,014

Sell 2 × $935 11.3% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $19.68 mid)

= $3,770 credit for the 9d cycle → $12,567/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $935)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $954.67)

81%

EV / mo

+$2,085

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,660/mo

median; plan ~$3,169/mo after 68% keep · $23,248 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

37%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,393

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,095 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $57.69/sh now → $40.82 mid-life (likely $44.00–$66.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $18.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,109 simulated challenges: the $935 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $965 (overshoots $30.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$980	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$11.70/sh	+$2,340 cycle +$6,110 [+$689…+$2,584] · 89% credit	72% surv 63%	-$48,933 NOT cap gain +$35,407
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,010	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.39/sh	+$278 cycle +$4,048 [-$1,791…+$364] · 30% credit	75% surv 69%	-$44,731 NOT cap gain +$39,609
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$935	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.68/sh	-$336 cycle +$3,434 [-$1,612…-$177] · 22% credit	64% surv 53%	-$61,038 NOT cap gain +$23,302
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,095	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$18.45/sh	-$3,689 cycle +$81 [-$6,772…-$4,021] · 1% credit	84% surv 81%	-$30,950 NOT cap gain +$53,390
budget: banked $3,770 debit $3,689 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$81 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $7,456/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$12,567/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,024/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $935 is $314 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$59,014
… as % of IC ($50,000)	118.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	29.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,505

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.71/sh (~25% of the $18.85 collected) or spot ≥ $954.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $935)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $925.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $926-954.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $954.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$935.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,770	$-60,702	+$23,638	+$3,224
+2.5%	$958.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-905	$-60,496	+$23,844	-$1,451
+5%	$981.75 (1.1σ)	$-5,580	$-60,290	+$24,050	-$6,126
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.9σ)	$-53,230	$-58,194	+$26,146	-$53,776

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $935): -$59,014

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,939 (+$26,401 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,776, the opportunity cost of earning $12,567/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $870

7 Aug

3.6%

62%hist 80%

82%hist 80%

+8pp

$7,480

$24,933

+$12,367

$68,304

Sell 2 × $870 3.6% OTM over spot $839.85 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $38.35 mid)

= $7,480 credit for the 9d cycle → $24,933/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $870)

62%

Breach risk

38%

POP (stays ≤ $908.35)

71%

EV / mo

+$1,550

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$7,120/mo

median; plan ~$4,842/mo after 68% keep · $32,651 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.2], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

66%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$116

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,100 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $53.68/sh now → $37.98 mid-life (likely $50.56–$69.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $37.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,993 simulated challenges: the $870 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $901 (overshoots $30.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$915	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.01/sh	+$2,403 cycle +$9,883 [+$331…+$1,472] · 84% credit	73% surv 64%	-$58,733 NOT cap gain +$25,607
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$870	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.38/sh	-$77 cycle +$7,403 [-$1,678…-$792] · 11% credit	64% surv 53%	-$70,640 NOT cap gain +$13,700
Max even-money escape in the band	~$950	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.46/sh	+$91 cycle +$7,571 [-$2,533…-$1,062] · 11% credit	76% surv 70%	-$53,736 NOT cap gain +$30,604
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,100	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$26.21/sh	-$5,242 cycle +$2,238 [-$9,818…-$7,097]	90% surv 89%	-$27,749 NOT cap gain +$56,591
budget: banked $7,480 debit $5,242 (70% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,238 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,922/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$24,933/mo
vs 50% target ($12,129/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($24,257/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$24,390/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $870 is $379 below CC-SS $1248.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$68,304
… as % of IC ($50,000)	136.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	34.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-84,530

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.35/sh (~25% of the $37.40 collected) or spot ≥ $908.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $870)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,038.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $861.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $861-908.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $908.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$870.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,480	$-70,564	+$13,776	+$6,934
+2.5%	$891.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,130	$-70,372	+$13,968	+$2,584
+5%	$913.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,220	$-70,181	+$14,159	-$1,766
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.9σ)	$-62,520	$-67,484	+$16,856	-$63,066

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1248.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,340

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,415

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $870): -$68,304

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,229 (+$17,111 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,066, the opportunity cost of earning $24,933/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (157 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 157 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$85,415 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,163

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$935	2d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	2/2	$12,150	$11,607	89%	90%	+$4,820	-$61,974	123.9%	$-60,899 (vs do-nothing $-56,736)
$930	2d	31 Jul 2026	$4.45	2/2	$13,350	$12,807	88%	89%	+$4,851	-$62,894	125.8%	$-61,819 (vs do-nothing $-57,656)
$925	2d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	2/2	$15,000	$14,457	87%	88%	+$5,150	-$63,784	127.6%	$-62,709 (vs do-nothing $-58,546)
$920	2d	31 Jul 2026	$5.60	2/2	$16,800	$16,257	86%	87%	+$5,392	-$64,664	129.3%	$-63,589 (vs do-nothing $-59,426)
$915	2d	31 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/2	$18,600	$18,057	84%	86%	+$5,402	-$65,544	131.1%	$-64,469 (vs do-nothing $-60,306)
$910	2d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	2/2	$20,700	$20,157	83%	85%	+$5,454	-$66,404	132.8%	$-65,329 (vs do-nothing $-61,166)
$905	2d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	2/2	$23,100	$22,557	81%	83%	+$5,522	-$67,244	134.5%	$-66,169 (vs do-nothing $-62,006)
$915	5d	3 Aug 2026	$10.40	2/2	$12,480	$11,937	79%	82%	+$2,397	-$64,704	129.4%	$-63,629 (vs do-nothing $-59,466)
$900	2d	31 Jul 2026	$8.55	1/2	$12,825	$12,794	79%	82%	+$2,715	-$34,037	68.1%	$-35,581 (vs do-nothing $-31,418)
$910	5d	3 Aug 2026	$11.35	2/2	$13,620	$13,077	78%	81%	+$2,460	-$65,514	131.0%	$-64,439 (vs do-nothing $-60,276)
$895	2d	31 Jul 2026	$9.35	1/2	$14,025	$13,994	77%	81%	+$2,429	-$34,457	68.9%	$-36,001 (vs do-nothing $-31,838)
$935	9d	7 Aug 2026	$18.85	2/2	$12,567	$12,024	77%	81%	+$2,085	-$59,014	118.0%	$-57,939 (vs do-nothing $-53,776)
$905	5d	3 Aug 2026	$12.30	2/2	$14,760	$14,217	76%	80%	+$2,424	-$66,324	132.6%	$-65,249 (vs do-nothing $-61,086)

Show 144 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 144.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$920	7d	5 Aug 2026	$14.90	2/2	$12,771	$12,228	76%	80%	+$1,235	-$62,804	125.6%	$-61,729 (vs do-nothing $-57,566)
$930	9d	7 Aug 2026	$19.85	2/2	$13,233	$12,690	76%	80%	+$2,037	-$59,814	119.6%	$-58,739 (vs do-nothing $-54,576)
$890	2d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	1/2	$15,750	$15,719	75%	79%	+$2,491	-$34,842	69.7%	$-36,386 (vs do-nothing $-32,223)
$915	7d	5 Aug 2026	$15.40	2/2	$13,200	$12,657	75%	79%	+$757	-$63,704	127.4%	$-62,629 (vs do-nothing $-58,466)
$900	5d	3 Aug 2026	$13.35	2/2	$16,020	$15,477	75%	79%	+$2,401	-$67,114	134.2%	$-66,039 (vs do-nothing $-61,876)
$925	9d	7 Aug 2026	$21.15	2/2	$14,100	$13,557	75%	79%	+$2,148	-$60,554	121.1%	$-59,479 (vs do-nothing $-55,316)
$910	7d	5 Aug 2026	$16.15	2/2	$13,843	$13,300	74%	78%	+$431	-$64,554	129.1%	$-63,479 (vs do-nothing $-59,316)
$920	9d	7 Aug 2026	$22.15	2/2	$14,767	$14,224	74%	78%	+$2,018	-$61,354	122.7%	$-60,279 (vs do-nothing $-56,116)
$895	5d	3 Aug 2026	$14.65	2/2	$17,580	$17,037	73%	78%	+$2,567	-$67,854	135.7%	$-66,779 (vs do-nothing $-62,616)
$885	2d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	1/2	$17,475	$17,444	73%	78%	+$2,369	-$35,227	70.5%	$-36,771 (vs do-nothing $-32,608)
$905	7d	5 Aug 2026	$17.70	2/2	$15,171	$14,628	73%	78%	+$1,116	-$65,244	130.5%	$-64,169 (vs do-nothing $-60,006)
$915	9d	7 Aug 2026	$23.50	2/2	$15,667	$15,124	73%	78%	+$2,077	-$62,084	124.2%	$-61,009 (vs do-nothing $-56,846)
$915	12d	10 Aug 2026	$24.75	2/2	$12,375	$11,832	72%	77%	+$706	-$61,834	123.7%	$-60,759 (vs do-nothing $-56,596)
$900	7d	5 Aug 2026	$18.90	2/2	$16,200	$15,657	72%	77%	+$1,358	-$66,004	132.0%	$-64,929 (vs do-nothing $-60,766)
$890	5d	3 Aug 2026	$15.55	2/2	$18,660	$18,117	72%	77%	+$2,134	-$68,674	137.3%	$-67,599 (vs do-nothing $-63,436)
$910	9d	7 Aug 2026	$24.80	2/2	$16,533	$15,990	71%	77%	+$2,059	-$62,824	125.6%	$-61,749 (vs do-nothing $-57,586)
$925	16d	14 Aug 2026	$33.05	2/2	$12,394	$11,851	71%	77%	+$1,456	-$58,174	116.3%	$-57,099 (vs do-nothing $-52,936)
$880	2d	31 Jul 2026	$12.85	1/2	$19,275	$19,244	71%	76%	+$2,133	-$35,607	71.2%	$-37,151 (vs do-nothing $-32,988)
$910	12d	10 Aug 2026	$25.90	2/2	$12,950	$12,407	71%	76%	+$583	-$62,604	125.2%	$-61,529 (vs do-nothing $-57,366)
$920	16d	14 Aug 2026	$34.45	2/2	$12,919	$12,376	70%	76%	+$1,476	-$58,894	117.8%	$-57,819 (vs do-nothing $-53,656)
$915	14d	12 Aug 2026	$28.55	2/2	$12,236	$11,693	70%	76%	+$261	-$61,074	122.1%	$-59,999 (vs do-nothing $-55,836)
$905	9d	7 Aug 2026	$26.25	2/2	$17,500	$16,957	70%	76%	+$2,096	-$63,534	127.1%	$-62,459 (vs do-nothing $-58,296)
$895	7d	5 Aug 2026	$20.20	2/2	$17,314	$16,771	70%	76%	+$1,129	-$66,744	133.5%	$-65,669 (vs do-nothing $-61,506)
$885	5d	3 Aug 2026	$16.90	2/2	$20,280	$19,737	70%	76%	+$2,118	-$69,404	138.8%	$-68,329 (vs do-nothing $-64,166)
$915	16d	14 Aug 2026	$35.85	2/2	$13,444	$12,901	70%	76%	+$1,926	-$59,614	119.2%	$-58,539 (vs do-nothing $-54,376)
$905	12d	10 Aug 2026	$27.40	2/2	$13,700	$13,157	69%	76%	+$602	-$63,304	126.6%	$-62,229 (vs do-nothing $-58,066)
$910	14d	12 Aug 2026	$30.40	2/2	$13,029	$12,486	69%	76%	+$430	-$61,704	123.4%	$-60,629 (vs do-nothing $-56,466)
$900	9d	7 Aug 2026	$27.70	2/2	$18,467	$17,924	69%	75%	+$2,085	-$64,244	128.5%	$-63,169 (vs do-nothing $-59,006)
$910	16d	14 Aug 2026	$37.35	2/2	$14,006	$13,463	69%	76%	+$1,932	-$60,314	120.6%	$-59,239 (vs do-nothing $-55,076)
$875	2d	31 Jul 2026	$14.20	1/2	$21,300	$21,269	69%	75%	+$1,930	-$35,972	71.9%	$-37,516 (vs do-nothing $-33,353)
$890	7d	5 Aug 2026	$21.00	2/2	$18,000	$17,457	69%	75%	+$463	-$67,584	135.2%	$-66,509 (vs do-nothing $-62,346)
$905	14d	12 Aug 2026	$32.10	2/2	$13,757	$13,214	68%	75%	+$512	-$62,364	124.7%	$-61,289 (vs do-nothing $-57,126)
$900	12d	10 Aug 2026	$28.55	2/2	$14,275	$13,732	68%	75%	+$414	-$64,074	128.1%	$-62,999 (vs do-nothing $-58,836)
$880	5d	3 Aug 2026	$18.25	2/2	$21,900	$21,357	68%	75%	+$1,972	-$70,134	140.3%	$-69,059 (vs do-nothing $-64,896)
$895	9d	7 Aug 2026	$29.15	2/2	$19,433	$18,890	68%	75%	+$2,025	-$64,954	129.9%	$-63,879 (vs do-nothing $-59,716)
$905	16d	14 Aug 2026	$38.85	2/2	$14,569	$14,026	68%	75%	+$1,917	-$61,014	122.0%	$-59,939 (vs do-nothing $-55,776)
$910	23d	21 Aug 2026	$47.45	2/2	$12,378	$11,835	68%	75%	+$1,557	-$58,294	116.6%	$-57,219 (vs do-nothing $-53,056)
$900	14d	12 Aug 2026	$33.90	2/2	$14,529	$13,986	67%	74%	+$612	-$63,004	126.0%	$-61,929 (vs do-nothing $-57,766)
$885	7d	5 Aug 2026	$22.75	2/2	$19,500	$18,957	67%	74%	+$676	-$68,234	136.5%	$-67,159 (vs do-nothing $-62,996)
$895	12d	10 Aug 2026	$30.25	2/2	$15,125	$14,582	67%	74%	+$466	-$64,734	129.5%	$-63,659 (vs do-nothing $-59,496)
$900	16d	14 Aug 2026	$40.45	2/2	$15,169	$14,626	67%	74%	+$1,917	-$61,694	123.4%	$-60,619 (vs do-nothing $-56,456)
$890	9d	7 Aug 2026	$30.70	2/2	$20,467	$19,924	67%	74%	+$1,983	-$65,644	131.3%	$-64,569 (vs do-nothing $-60,406)
$905	23d	21 Aug 2026	$49.15	2/2	$12,822	$12,279	67%	74%	+$1,574	-$58,954	117.9%	$-57,879 (vs do-nothing $-53,716)
$870	2d	31 Jul 2026	$15.50	1/2	$23,250	$23,219	66%	73%	+$1,459	-$36,342	72.7%	$-37,886 (vs do-nothing $-33,723)
$895	14d	12 Aug 2026	$35.10	2/2	$15,043	$14,500	66%	74%	+$429	-$63,764	127.5%	$-62,689 (vs do-nothing $-58,526)
$875	5d	3 Aug 2026	$19.70	2/2	$23,640	$23,097	66%	73%	+$1,812	-$70,844	141.7%	$-69,769 (vs do-nothing $-65,606)
$890	12d	10 Aug 2026	$31.60	2/2	$15,800	$15,257	66%	74%	+$309	-$65,464	130.9%	$-64,389 (vs do-nothing $-60,226)
$895	16d	14 Aug 2026	$42.05	2/2	$15,769	$15,226	66%	74%	+$1,895	-$62,374	124.7%	$-61,299 (vs do-nothing $-57,136)
$900	23d	21 Aug 2026	$50.95	2/2	$13,291	$12,748	66%	74%	+$1,604	-$59,594	119.2%	$-58,519 (vs do-nothing $-54,356)
$880	7d	5 Aug 2026	$23.85	2/2	$20,443	$19,900	66%	73%	$-227	-$69,014	138.0%	$-67,939 (vs do-nothing $-63,776)
$885	9d	7 Aug 2026	$32.35	2/2	$21,567	$21,024	65%	73%	+$1,957	-$66,314	132.6%	$-65,239 (vs do-nothing $-61,076)
$890	14d	12 Aug 2026	$37.10	2/2	$15,900	$15,357	65%	73%	+$563	-$64,364	128.7%	$-63,289 (vs do-nothing $-59,126)
$895	23d	21 Aug 2026	$52.40	2/2	$13,670	$13,127	65%	73%	+$1,529	-$60,304	120.6%	$-59,229 (vs do-nothing $-55,066)
$890	16d	14 Aug 2026	$43.75	2/2	$16,406	$15,863	65%	73%	+$1,887	-$63,034	126.1%	$-61,959 (vs do-nothing $-57,796)
$885	12d	10 Aug 2026	$33.70	2/2	$16,850	$16,307	65%	73%	+$491	-$66,044	132.1%	$-64,969 (vs do-nothing $-60,806)
$870	5d	3 Aug 2026	$21.20	1/2	$12,720	$12,689	64%	72%	+$787	-$35,772	71.5%	$-37,316 (vs do-nothing $-33,153)
$885	14d	12 Aug 2026	$38.30	2/2	$16,414	$15,871	64%	73%	+$328	-$65,124	130.2%	$-64,049 (vs do-nothing $-59,886)
$880	9d	7 Aug 2026	$33.90	2/2	$22,600	$22,057	64%	73%	+$2,000	-$67,004	134.0%	$-65,929 (vs do-nothing $-61,766)
$865	2d	31 Jul 2026	$17.10	1/2	$25,650	$25,619	64%	72%	+$1,246	-$36,682	73.4%	$-38,226 (vs do-nothing $-34,063)
$890	23d	21 Aug 2026	$54.15	2/2	$14,126	$13,583	64%	73%	+$1,518	-$60,954	121.9%	$-59,879 (vs do-nothing $-55,716)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-29 21:41