FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $752.99

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1261.98 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $752.99 UNDERWATER $467.01 (38.3% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1261.98 (banked floor $1,240.69) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$21,854/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$650/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-105,148	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,927/mo

HEDGE COVER
$650/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$21,854/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.3 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
9.1 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1261.98 (probe: $1260C 15d) brings only $300/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$4,427

Hole (after banked)

$100,721

was $105,148 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,250

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,261.98 → $1,240.69

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$6.25	$1,250	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B -3 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,243.85 (+65%) · daily UBB $1,063.67 · 1-wk expected move ±$111 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $850 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($10,927/mo); it brings $11,512/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $795/8d for $22,125/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1100/8d (99% survival, $750/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $79,327 (159% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 3.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-105,258 and cuts bleed by $650/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 2 × $850, 80% survival, $11,512/mo (E[net] $801/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	2 × $850	80%	$11,512	$801

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $3,070 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $7,780 to close and taking $1,840 back from the best priced door (net cash $5,941) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $801/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $850 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $11,512/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $880 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 20% → 15%) for $3,600/mo less (31% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $880 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $752.99 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1100

7 Aug

46.1%

99%hist 100%

3%hist 1%

+0pp

$200

$750

-$10,762

$32,197

Sell 2 × $1100 46.1% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.07 mid)

= $200 credit for the 8d cycle → $750/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1100)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1101.08)

99%

EV / mo

+$570

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

47% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-76/mo

median; plan ~$-52/mo after 68% keep · $-320 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.3], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,869

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,147 @ 71% POP

62% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $71.16/sh now → $50.34 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$49.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,100	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$19.90/sh	-$3,981 cycle -$3,781	61% surv 53%	-$36,959 NOT cap gain +$68,189
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,147	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.51/sh	+$502 cycle +$702	71% surv 62%	-$22,727 NOT cap gain +$82,421
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$750/mo
vs 50% target ($10,927/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($21,854/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$100/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1100 is $162 below CC-SS $1261.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$32,197
… as % of IC ($50,000)	64.4%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	16.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-105,163

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,101.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,089.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,089-1,101.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,101.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,100.00 (2.9σ)	$200	$-32,978	+$72,170	+$26
+2.5%	$1,127.50 (3.1σ)	$-5,300	$-32,775	+$72,373	-$5,474
+5%	$1,155.00 (3.4σ)	$-10,800	$-32,571	+$72,577	-$10,974
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.9σ)	$-23,800	$-32,090	+$73,058	-$23,974

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1261.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,148

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$105,565

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1100): -$32,197

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,779 (+$73,369 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,974, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $915

7 Aug

21.5%

90%hist 100%

21%hist 13%

+5pp

$1,350

$5,062

-$6,450

$68,047

Sell 2 × $915 21.5% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $7.22 mid)

= $1,350 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,062/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $915)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $922.23)

91%

EV / mo

+$2,020

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,213/mo

median; plan ~$1,505/mo after 68% keep · $12,376 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.5-4.4], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,025

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$997 @ 75% POP

69% survival

Buyback gross: $59.19/sh now → $41.88 mid-life (likely $36.91–$62.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $915 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $945 (overshoots $29.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$962	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.05/sh	+$1,211 cycle +$2,561 [-$429…+$2,522] · 65% credit	71% surv 63%	-$59,237 NOT cap gain +$45,911
Max even-money escape in the band	~$972	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.82/sh	+$365 cycle +$1,715 [-$1,414…+$1,647] · 47% credit	72% surv 65%	-$58,008 NOT cap gain +$47,140
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$997	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$5.04/sh	-$1,007 cycle +$343 [-$3,074…+$162] · 26% credit	75% surv 69%	-$54,196 NOT cap gain +$50,952
budget: banked $1,350 debit $1,007 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$343 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $12,280/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$915	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$13.58/sh	-$2,716 cycle -$1,366 [-$4,688…-$1,511] · 10% credit	61% surv 53%	-$72,913 NOT cap gain +$32,235

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,062/mo
vs 50% target ($10,927/mo)	-54%
vs normal income ($21,854/mo)	23% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,412/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $915 is $347 below CC-SS $1261.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$68,047
… as % of IC ($50,000)	136.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	34.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-105,243

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.69/sh (~25% of the $6.75 collected) or spot ≥ $922.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $915)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $905.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $906-922.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $922.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$915.00 (1.4σ)	$1,350	$-70,197	+$34,951	+$1,176
+2.5%	$937.87 (1.6σ)	$-3,225	$-70,028	+$35,120	-$3,399
+5%	$960.75 (1.7σ)	$-7,800	$-69,859	+$35,289	-$7,974
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.9σ)	$-59,650	$-67,940	+$37,208	-$59,824

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1261.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,148

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$105,565

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $915): -$68,047

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,629 (+$37,519 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,824, the opportunity cost of earning $5,062/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $880

7 Aug

16.9%

85%hist 99%

31%hist 18%

+5pp

$2,110

$7,912

-$3,600

$74,287

Sell 2 × $880 16.9% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $11.07 mid)

= $2,110 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,912/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $880)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $891.08)

87%

EV / mo

+$2,526

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

42% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,196/mo

median; plan ~$2,173/mo after 68% keep · $20,460 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.1-4.6], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,945

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$982 @ 77% POP

73% survival

Buyback gross: $56.93/sh now → $40.27 mid-life (likely $39.48–$64.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$29.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 683 simulated challenges: the $880 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $909 (overshoots $28.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$917	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.86/sh	+$1,772 cycle +$3,882 [+$102…+$2,622] · 77% credit	71% surv 62%	-$67,248 NOT cap gain +$37,900
Max even-money escape in the band	~$937	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.27/sh	+$455 cycle +$2,565 [-$1,797…+$1,012] · 39% credit	72% surv 65%	-$64,418 NOT cap gain +$40,730
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$982	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$9.70/sh	-$1,940 cycle +$170 [-$4,722…-$1,545] · 11% credit	77% surv 73%	-$57,480 NOT cap gain +$47,668
budget: banked $2,110 debit $1,940 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,191/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$880	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$12.52/sh	-$2,504 cycle -$394 [-$5,018…-$2,013] · 8% credit	61% surv 53%	-$79,200 NOT cap gain +$25,948

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,912/mo
vs 50% target ($10,927/mo)	-28%
vs normal income ($21,854/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,262/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $880 is $382 below CC-SS $1261.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$74,287
… as % of IC ($50,000)	148.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	37.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-105,253

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.64/sh (~25% of the $10.55 collected) or spot ≥ $891.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $880)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $871.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $871-891.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $891.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$880.00 (1.1σ)	$2,110	$-76,696	+$28,452	+$1,936
+2.5%	$902.00 (1.3σ)	$-2,290	$-76,533	+$28,615	-$2,464
+5%	$924.00 (1.4σ)	$-6,690	$-76,371	+$28,777	-$6,864
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.9σ)	$-65,890	$-74,180	+$30,968	-$66,064

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1261.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,148

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$105,565

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $880): -$74,287

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,869 (+$31,279 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,064, the opportunity cost of earning $7,912/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $850

7 Aug

12.9%

80%hist 96%

43%hist 28%

+7pp

$3,070

$11,512

—

$79,327

Sell 2 × $850 12.9% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $15.90 mid)

= $3,070 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,512/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $850)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $865.90)

83%

EV / mo

+$2,893

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

42% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,134/mo

median; plan ~$2,811/mo after 68% keep · $27,146 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,710

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$977 @ 80% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $54.99/sh now → $38.90 mid-life (likely $40.29–$61.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $15.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 951 simulated challenges: the $850 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $877 (overshoots $26.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$887	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$9.20/sh	+$1,840 cycle +$4,910 [+$81…+$2,344] · 76% credit	72% surv 62%	-$72,443 NOT cap gain +$32,705
Max even-money escape in the band	~$907	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.59/sh	+$518 cycle +$3,588 [-$1,776…+$779] · 36% credit	73% surv 66%	-$69,616 NOT cap gain +$35,532
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$850	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$11.64/sh	-$2,329 cycle +$741 [-$4,875…-$2,163] · 8% credit	61% surv 53%	-$84,287 NOT cap gain +$20,861
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$977	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$14.72/sh	-$2,944 cycle +$126 [-$5,930…-$3,028] · 4% credit	80% surv 77%	-$58,561 NOT cap gain +$46,587
budget: banked $3,070 debit $2,944 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$126 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,060/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,512/mo
vs 50% target ($10,927/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($21,854/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,862/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $850 is $412 below CC-SS $1261.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$79,327
… as % of IC ($50,000)	158.7%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	40.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-105,258

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.84/sh (~25% of the $15.35 collected) or spot ≥ $865.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $850)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $841.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $842-865.90	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $865.90	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$850.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,070	$-81,958	+$23,190	+$2,896
+2.5%	$871.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,180	$-81,801	+$23,347	-$1,354
+5%	$892.50 (1.2σ)	$-5,430	$-81,644	+$23,504	-$5,604
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.9σ)	$-70,930	$-79,220	+$25,928	-$71,104

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1261.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,148

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$105,565

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $850): -$79,327

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-78,909 (+$26,239 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,104, the opportunity cost of earning $11,512/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $795

7 Aug

5.6%

66%hist 80%

72%hist 59%

+10pp

$5,900

$22,125

+$10,612

$87,497

Sell 2 × $795 5.6% OTM over spot $752.99 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $30.07 mid)

= $5,900 credit for the 8d cycle → $22,125/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $795)

66%

Breach risk

34%

POP (stays ≤ $825.08)

74%

EV / mo

+$3,204

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,141/mo

median; plan ~$4,176/mo after 68% keep · $37,766 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,377

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,037 @ 90% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $51.43/sh now → $36.38 mid-life (likely $45.41–$64.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $29.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,680 simulated challenges: the $795 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $821 (overshoots $25.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$832	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$9.63/sh	+$1,926 cycle +$7,826 [-$305…+$1,199] · 66% credit	72% surv 63%	-$80,934 NOT cap gain +$24,214
Max even-money escape in the band	~$852	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$3.02/sh	+$603 cycle +$6,503 [-$2,151…-$349] · 20% credit	73% surv 66%	-$78,108 NOT cap gain +$27,040
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$795	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$10.12/sh	-$2,024 cycle +$3,876 [-$5,083…-$3,065] · 3% credit	61% surv 53%	-$92,559 NOT cap gain +$12,589
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,037	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$28.00/sh	-$5,600 cycle +$300 [-$10,147…-$7,107]	90% surv 90%	-$45,942 NOT cap gain +$59,206
budget: banked $5,900 debit $5,600 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$300 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,795/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$22,125/mo
vs 50% target ($10,927/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($21,854/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,475/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $795 is $467 below CC-SS $1261.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$87,497
… as % of IC ($50,000)	175.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	44.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-105,263

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $7.38/sh (~25% of the $29.50 collected) or spot ≥ $825.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $795)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,063.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $787.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $787-825.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $825.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$795.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,900	$-90,535	+$14,613	+$5,726
+2.5%	$814.87 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,925	$-90,388	+$14,760	+$1,751
+5%	$834.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,050	$-90,241	+$14,907	-$2,224
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.9σ)	$-79,100	$-87,390	+$17,758	-$79,274

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1261.98, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,148

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$105,565

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $795): -$87,497

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-87,079 (+$18,069 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-79,274, the opportunity cost of earning $22,125/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (99 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 99 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.037 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$105,565 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,805

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$835	4d	3 Aug 2026	$7.35	2/2	$11,025	$10,375	84%	86%	+$3,832	-$83,927	167.9%	$-83,509 (vs do-nothing $-75,704)
$830	4d	3 Aug 2026	$8.15	2/2	$12,225	$11,575	83%	85%	+$4,064	-$84,767	169.5%	$-84,349 (vs do-nothing $-76,544)
$825	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.00	2/2	$13,500	$12,850	81%	84%	+$4,258	-$85,597	171.2%	$-85,179 (vs do-nothing $-77,374)
$840	6d	5 Aug 2026	$11.05	2/2	$11,050	$10,400	81%	84%	+$2,518	-$82,187	164.4%	$-81,769 (vs do-nothing $-73,964)
$820	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.70	2/2	$14,550	$13,900	80%	83%	+$4,106	-$86,457	172.9%	$-86,039 (vs do-nothing $-78,234)
$850	8d	7 Aug 2026	$15.35	2/2	$11,512	$10,862	80%	83%	+$2,893	-$79,327	158.7%	$-78,909 (vs do-nothing $-71,104)
$835	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.05	2/2	$12,050	$11,400	80%	83%	+$2,691	-$82,987	166.0%	$-82,569 (vs do-nothing $-74,764)
$845	8d	7 Aug 2026	$16.25	2/2	$12,188	$11,538	79%	82%	+$2,888	-$80,147	160.3%	$-79,729 (vs do-nothing $-71,924)
$815	4d	3 Aug 2026	$10.90	2/2	$16,350	$15,700	78%	82%	+$4,572	-$87,217	174.4%	$-86,799 (vs do-nothing $-78,994)
$830	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.85	2/2	$12,850	$12,200	78%	82%	+$2,595	-$83,827	167.7%	$-83,409 (vs do-nothing $-75,604)
$840	8d	7 Aug 2026	$17.15	2/2	$12,862	$12,212	77%	81%	+$2,838	-$80,967	161.9%	$-80,549 (vs do-nothing $-72,744)
$825	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.85	2/2	$12,850	$12,200	77%	81%	+$1,625	-$84,827	169.7%	$-84,409 (vs do-nothing $-76,604)
$810	4d	3 Aug 2026	$11.80	2/2	$17,700	$17,050	77%	81%	+$4,447	-$88,037	176.1%	$-87,619 (vs do-nothing $-79,814)

Show 86 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 86.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$835	8d	7 Aug 2026	$17.60	2/2	$13,200	$12,550	76%	80%	+$2,403	-$81,877	163.8%	$-81,459 (vs do-nothing $-73,654)
$820	6d	5 Aug 2026	$14.60	2/2	$14,600	$13,950	76%	80%	+$2,328	-$85,477	171.0%	$-85,059 (vs do-nothing $-77,254)
$830	8d	7 Aug 2026	$18.30	2/2	$13,725	$13,075	75%	79%	+$2,106	-$82,737	165.5%	$-82,319 (vs do-nothing $-74,514)
$805	4d	3 Aug 2026	$13.00	2/2	$19,500	$18,850	75%	79%	+$4,621	-$88,797	177.6%	$-88,379 (vs do-nothing $-80,574)
$815	6d	5 Aug 2026	$16.10	2/2	$16,100	$15,450	74%	79%	+$2,699	-$86,177	172.4%	$-85,759 (vs do-nothing $-77,954)
$825	8d	7 Aug 2026	$20.55	2/2	$15,412	$14,762	74%	79%	+$2,920	-$83,287	166.6%	$-82,869 (vs do-nothing $-75,064)
$800	4d	3 Aug 2026	$14.10	2/2	$21,150	$20,500	73%	78%	+$4,486	-$89,577	179.2%	$-89,159 (vs do-nothing $-81,354)
$835	15d	14 Aug 2026	$28.45	2/2	$11,380	$10,730	73%	78%	+$2,060	-$79,707	159.4%	$-79,289 (vs do-nothing $-71,484)
$820	8d	7 Aug 2026	$21.05	2/2	$15,788	$15,138	73%	78%	+$2,368	-$84,187	168.4%	$-83,769 (vs do-nothing $-75,964)
$830	13d	12 Aug 2026	$25.15	2/2	$11,608	$10,958	73%	78%	+$1,565	-$81,367	162.7%	$-80,949 (vs do-nothing $-73,144)
$810	6d	5 Aug 2026	$17.25	2/2	$17,250	$16,600	73%	78%	+$2,634	-$86,947	173.9%	$-86,529 (vs do-nothing $-78,724)
$830	15d	14 Aug 2026	$28.35	2/2	$11,340	$10,690	72%	78%	+$1,503	-$80,727	161.5%	$-80,309 (vs do-nothing $-72,504)
$825	13d	12 Aug 2026	$26.45	2/2	$12,208	$11,558	72%	78%	+$1,561	-$82,107	164.2%	$-81,689 (vs do-nothing $-73,884)
$815	8d	7 Aug 2026	$23.25	2/2	$17,438	$16,788	71%	77%	+$3,035	-$84,747	169.5%	$-84,329 (vs do-nothing $-76,524)
$805	6d	5 Aug 2026	$18.55	2/2	$18,550	$17,900	71%	77%	+$2,630	-$87,687	175.4%	$-87,269 (vs do-nothing $-79,464)
$795	4d	3 Aug 2026	$15.10	1/2	$11,325	$10,849	71%	77%	+$2,016	-$45,188	90.4%	$-48,882 (vs do-nothing $-41,077)
$825	15d	14 Aug 2026	$31.00	2/2	$12,400	$11,750	71%	77%	+$2,023	-$81,197	162.4%	$-80,779 (vs do-nothing $-72,974)
$820	13d	12 Aug 2026	$27.55	2/2	$12,715	$12,065	71%	77%	+$1,436	-$82,887	165.8%	$-82,469 (vs do-nothing $-74,664)
$810	8d	7 Aug 2026	$24.10	2/2	$18,075	$17,425	70%	76%	+$2,633	-$85,577	171.2%	$-85,159 (vs do-nothing $-77,354)
$820	15d	14 Aug 2026	$31.45	2/2	$12,580	$11,930	70%	76%	+$1,638	-$82,107	164.2%	$-81,689 (vs do-nothing $-73,884)
$800	6d	5 Aug 2026	$19.90	2/2	$19,900	$19,250	70%	76%	+$2,582	-$88,417	176.8%	$-87,999 (vs do-nothing $-80,194)
$815	13d	12 Aug 2026	$29.00	2/2	$13,385	$12,735	69%	76%	+$1,443	-$83,597	167.2%	$-83,179 (vs do-nothing $-75,374)
$790	4d	3 Aug 2026	$16.75	1/2	$12,562	$12,086	69%	76%	+$2,189	-$45,523	91.0%	$-49,217 (vs do-nothing $-41,412)
$805	8d	7 Aug 2026	$26.15	2/2	$19,612	$18,962	69%	76%	+$3,072	-$86,167	172.3%	$-85,749 (vs do-nothing $-77,944)
$815	15d	14 Aug 2026	$33.80	2/2	$13,520	$12,870	69%	76%	+$1,988	-$82,637	165.3%	$-82,219 (vs do-nothing $-74,414)
$810	13d	12 Aug 2026	$30.55	2/2	$14,100	$13,450	68%	75%	+$1,465	-$84,287	168.6%	$-83,869 (vs do-nothing $-76,064)
$795	6d	5 Aug 2026	$21.35	2/2	$21,350	$20,700	68%	75%	+$2,538	-$89,127	178.3%	$-88,709 (vs do-nothing $-80,904)
$810	15d	14 Aug 2026	$34.40	2/2	$13,760	$13,110	68%	75%	+$1,612	-$83,517	167.0%	$-83,099 (vs do-nothing $-75,294)
$800	8d	7 Aug 2026	$28.00	2/2	$21,000	$20,350	67%	75%	+$3,301	-$86,797	173.6%	$-86,379 (vs do-nothing $-78,574)
$785	4d	3 Aug 2026	$18.15	1/2	$13,612	$13,136	67%	74%	+$2,081	-$45,883	91.8%	$-49,577 (vs do-nothing $-41,772)
$805	15d	14 Aug 2026	$36.80	2/2	$14,720	$14,070	67%	74%	+$1,929	-$84,037	168.1%	$-83,619 (vs do-nothing $-75,814)
$790	6d	5 Aug 2026	$22.00	1/2	$11,000	$10,524	66%	74%	+$796	-$44,998	90.0%	$-48,692 (vs do-nothing $-40,887)
$795	8d	7 Aug 2026	$29.50	1/2	$11,062	$10,586	66%	74%	+$1,602	-$43,748	87.5%	$-47,442 (vs do-nothing $-39,637)
$810	22d	21 Aug 2026	$43.40	2/2	$11,836	$11,186	66%	73%	$-280	-$81,717	163.4%	$-81,299 (vs do-nothing $-73,494)
$800	15d	14 Aug 2026	$36.65	2/2	$14,660	$14,010	65%	74%	+$1,200	-$85,067	170.1%	$-84,649 (vs do-nothing $-76,844)
$805	22d	21 Aug 2026	$45.00	2/2	$12,273	$11,623	65%	73%	$-301	-$82,397	164.8%	$-81,979 (vs do-nothing $-74,174)
$780	4d	3 Aug 2026	$19.65	1/2	$14,738	$14,262	65%	73%	+$1,953	-$46,233	92.5%	$-49,927 (vs do-nothing $-42,122)
$790	8d	7 Aug 2026	$31.20	1/2	$11,700	$11,224	65%	73%	+$1,597	-$44,078	88.2%	$-47,772 (vs do-nothing $-39,967)
$785	6d	5 Aug 2026	$23.90	1/2	$11,950	$11,474	64%	73%	+$897	-$45,308	90.6%	$-49,002 (vs do-nothing $-41,197)
$795	15d	14 Aug 2026	$39.95	2/2	$15,980	$15,330	64%	73%	+$1,823	-$85,407	170.8%	$-84,989 (vs do-nothing $-77,184)
$800	22d	21 Aug 2026	$47.55	2/2	$12,968	$12,318	64%	72%	$-77	-$82,887	165.8%	$-82,469 (vs do-nothing $-74,664)
$795	22d	21 Aug 2026	$48.40	2/2	$13,200	$12,550	64%	73%	+$1,280	-$83,717	167.4%	$-83,299 (vs do-nothing $-75,494)
$790	15d	14 Aug 2026	$41.90	2/2	$16,760	$16,110	63%	72%	+$1,878	-$86,017	172.0%	$-85,599 (vs do-nothing $-77,794)
$785	8d	7 Aug 2026	$31.35	1/2	$11,756	$11,280	63%	72%	+$978	-$44,563	89.1%	$-48,257 (vs do-nothing $-40,452)
$780	6d	5 Aug 2026	$25.20	1/2	$12,600	$12,124	63%	72%	+$644	-$45,678	91.4%	$-49,372 (vs do-nothing $-41,567)
$790	22d	21 Aug 2026	$50.35	2/2	$13,732	$13,082	63%	72%	+$1,300	-$84,327	168.7%	$-83,909 (vs do-nothing $-76,104)
$775	4d	3 Aug 2026	$21.05	1/2	$15,788	$15,312	62%	72%	+$1,651	-$46,593	93.2%	$-50,287 (vs do-nothing $-42,482)
$785	15d	14 Aug 2026	$42.45	2/2	$16,980	$16,330	62%	72%	+$1,344	-$86,907	173.8%	$-86,489 (vs do-nothing $-78,684)
$780	8d	7 Aug 2026	$33.30	1/2	$12,487	$12,011	62%	71%	+$1,001	-$44,868	89.7%	$-48,562 (vs do-nothing $-40,757)
$775	6d	5 Aug 2026	$27.15	1/2	$13,575	$13,099	61%	71%	+$662	-$45,983	92.0%	$-49,677 (vs do-nothing $-41,872)
$780	15d	14 Aug 2026	$45.55	2/2	$18,220	$17,570	61%	71%	+$1,801	-$87,287	174.6%	$-86,869 (vs do-nothing $-79,064)
$780	22d	21 Aug 2026	$54.00	2/2	$14,727	$14,077	61%	71%	+$1,222	-$85,597	171.2%	$-85,179 (vs do-nothing $-77,374)
$770	4d	3 Aug 2026	$22.75	1/2	$17,062	$16,586	60%	70%	+$1,472	-$46,923	93.8%	$-50,617 (vs do-nothing $-42,812)
$775	8d	7 Aug 2026	$35.10	1/2	$13,162	$12,686	60%	71%	+$933	-$45,188	90.4%	$-48,882 (vs do-nothing $-41,077)
$770	6d	5 Aug 2026	$28.80	1/2	$14,400	$13,924	59%	70%	+$474	-$46,318	92.6%	$-50,012 (vs do-nothing $-42,207)
$770	8d	7 Aug 2026	$37.45	1/2	$14,044	$13,568	59%	70%	+$1,038	-$45,453	90.9%	$-49,147 (vs do-nothing $-41,342)
$770	22d	21 Aug 2026	$58.40	2/2	$15,927	$15,277	58%	70%	+$1,278	-$86,717	173.4%	$-86,299 (vs do-nothing $-78,494)
$765	4d	3 Aug 2026	$24.55	1/2	$18,412	$17,936	58%	69%	+$1,264	-$47,243	94.5%	$-50,937 (vs do-nothing $-43,132)
$765	6d	5 Aug 2026	$30.75	1/2	$15,375	$14,899	57%	69%	+$379	-$46,623	93.2%	$-50,317 (vs do-nothing $-42,512)
$765	8d	7 Aug 2026	$39.80	1/2	$14,925	$14,449	57%	69%	+$1,107	-$45,718	91.4%	$-49,412 (vs do-nothing $-41,607)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 19:14