FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $796.60

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1247.73 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $796.60 UNDERWATER $423.40 (34.7% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1247.73 (banked floor $1,226.44) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$25,622/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$496/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-93,220	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$12,811/mo

HEDGE COVER
$496/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$25,622/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $1247.73 (probe: $1250C 15d) brings only $484/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$4,427

Hole (after banked)

$88,793

was $93,220 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,250

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,247.73 → $1,226.44

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$6.25	$1,250	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,247.32 (+57%) · daily UBB $1,054.71 · 1-wk expected move ±$111 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $895 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($12,811/mo); it brings $13,388/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $835/8d for $26,662/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1150/8d (99% survival, $540/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $66,977 (134% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 2.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-93,345 and cuts bleed by $496/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 2 × $895, 80% survival, $13,388/mo (E[net] $917/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	2 × $895	80%	$13,388	$917

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $3,570 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $8,778 to close and taking $2,053 back from the best priced door (net cash $6,725) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $917/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $895 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $13,388/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $930 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 20% → 14%) for $4,838/mo less (36% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $796.60 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1150

7 Aug

44.4%

99%hist 100%

1%hist 1%

-1pp

$144

$540

-$12,848

$19,403

Sell 2 × $1150 44.4% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.92 mid)

= $144 credit for the 8d cycle → $540/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1150)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1150.92)

99%

EV / mo

+$493

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

44% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-114/mo

median; plan ~$-78/mo after 68% keep · $-812 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$11,135

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,208 @ 74% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $79.71/sh now → $56.40 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$55.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,150	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$28.08/sh	-$5,617 cycle -$5,473	61% surv 52%	-$25,043 NOT cap gain +$68,177
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,208	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.87/sh	+$174 cycle +$318	74% surv 65%	-$7,081 NOT cap gain +$86,139
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$540/mo
vs 50% target ($12,811/mo)	-96%
vs normal income ($25,622/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$44/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1150 is $98 below CC-SS $1247.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,403
… as % of IC ($50,000)	38.8%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	9.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-93,260

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $1,150.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,138-1,150.92	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,150.92	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,150.00 (3.0σ)	$144	$-19,426	+$73,794	-$162
+2.5%	$1,178.75 (3.2σ)	$-5,606	$-19,185	+$74,035	-$5,912
+5%	$1,207.50 (3.5σ)	$-11,356	$-18,943	+$74,277	-$11,662
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.6σ)	$-13,856	$-18,838	+$74,382	-$14,162

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1247.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,220

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,018

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1150): -$19,403

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,605 (+$74,615 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,162, the opportunity cost of earning $540/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $960

7 Aug

20.5%

90%hist 100%

20%hist 13%

+5pp

$1,520

$5,700

-$7,688

$56,027

Sell 2 × $960 20.5% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $8.12 mid)

= $1,520 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $960)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $968.12)

91%

EV / mo

+$2,821

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,904/mo

median; plan ~$1,975/mo after 68% keep · $15,432 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,896

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,053 @ 79% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $66.54/sh now → $47.08 mid-life (likely $41.89–$68.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$39.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 513 simulated challenges: the $960 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $990 (overshoots $29.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,008	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$9.43/sh	+$1,886 cycle +$3,406 [+$706…+$3,434] · 86% credit	74% surv 64%	-$45,673 NOT cap gain +$47,547
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,033	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$57 cycle +$1,577 [-$1,459…+$1,378] · 47% credit	76% surv 69%	-$42,292 NOT cap gain +$50,928
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,053	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$6.14/sh	-$1,228 cycle +$292 [-$2,990…-$48] · 25% credit	79% surv 72%	-$39,409 NOT cap gain +$53,811
budget: banked $1,520 debit $1,228 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$292 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,646/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$960	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$20.72/sh	-$4,143 cycle -$2,623 [-$6,349…-$3,110] · 1% credit	61% surv 53%	-$61,789 NOT cap gain +$31,431

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($12,811/mo)	-56%
vs normal income ($25,622/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,204/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $960 is $288 below CC-SS $1247.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$56,027
… as % of IC ($50,000)	112.1%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	28.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-93,325

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.90/sh (~25% of the $7.60 collected) or spot ≥ $968.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $960)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $950.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $950-968.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $968.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$960.00 (1.4σ)	$1,520	$-57,646	+$35,574	+$1,214
+2.5%	$984.00 (1.6σ)	$-3,280	$-57,445	+$35,775	-$3,586
+5%	$1,008.00 (1.8σ)	$-8,080	$-57,243	+$35,977	-$8,386
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.6σ)	$-50,480	$-55,462	+$37,758	-$50,786

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1247.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,220

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,018

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $960): -$56,027

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,229 (+$37,991 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,786, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $930

7 Aug

16.7%

86%hist 99%

29%hist 13%

+5pp

$2,280

$8,550

-$4,838

$61,267

Sell 2 × $930 16.7% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $11.98 mid)

= $2,280 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,550/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $930)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $941.98)

88%

EV / mo

+$3,803

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

51% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,983/mo

median; plan ~$2,709/mo after 68% keep · $23,225 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,841

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,043 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $64.46/sh now → $45.61 mid-life (likely $43.77–$69.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$34.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 658 simulated challenges: the $930 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $960 (overshoots $29.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$978	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$9.86/sh	+$1,972 cycle +$4,252 [+$386…+$3,076] · 82% credit	74% surv 64%	-$51,078 NOT cap gain +$42,142
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,003	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.78/sh	+$157 cycle +$2,437 [-$1,784…+$957] · 38% credit	77% surv 69%	-$47,684 NOT cap gain +$45,536
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,043	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$11.12/sh	-$2,225 cycle +$55 [-$4,698…-$1,536] · 12% credit	81% surv 76%	-$41,730 NOT cap gain +$51,490
budget: banked $2,280 debit $2,225 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $11,494/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$930	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$19.65/sh	-$3,930 cycle -$1,650 [-$6,606…-$3,304] · 2% credit	61% surv 53%	-$67,068 NOT cap gain +$26,152

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,550/mo
vs 50% target ($12,811/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($25,622/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,054/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $930 is $318 below CC-SS $1247.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$61,267
… as % of IC ($50,000)	122.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	30.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-93,335

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.85/sh (~25% of the $11.40 collected) or spot ≥ $941.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $930)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $920.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $921-941.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $941.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$930.00 (1.1σ)	$2,280	$-63,138	+$30,082	+$1,974
+2.5%	$953.25 (1.3σ)	$-2,370	$-62,943	+$30,277	-$2,676
+5%	$976.50 (1.5σ)	$-7,020	$-62,748	+$30,472	-$7,326
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.6σ)	$-55,720	$-60,702	+$32,518	-$56,026

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1247.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,220

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,018

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $930): -$61,267

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,469 (+$32,751 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,026, the opportunity cost of earning $8,550/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $895

7 Aug

12.4%

80%hist 99%

41%hist 28%

+8pp

$3,570

$13,388

—

$66,977

Sell 2 × $895 12.4% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $18.48 mid)

= $3,570 credit for the 8d cycle → $13,388/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $895)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $913.48)

84%

EV / mo

+$5,712

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,653/mo

median; plan ~$3,844/mo after 68% keep · $32,074 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,208

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,038 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $62.04/sh now → $43.89 mid-life (likely $46.40–$71.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 969 simulated challenges: the $895 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $924 (overshoots $28.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$943	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.26/sh	+$2,053 cycle +$5,623 [+$156…+$2,482] · 79% credit	74% surv 64%	-$57,002 NOT cap gain +$36,218
Max even-money escape in the band	~$968	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.27/sh	+$253 cycle +$3,823 [-$1,946…+$440] · 34% credit	77% surv 69%	-$53,592 NOT cap gain +$39,628
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,038	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$17.61/sh	-$3,521 cycle +$49 [-$6,737…-$3,687] · 2% credit	84% surv 81%	-$42,778 NOT cap gain +$50,442
budget: banked $3,570 debit $3,521 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,761/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$895	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$18.44/sh	-$3,688 cycle -$118 [-$6,684…-$3,774] · 1% credit	61% surv 53%	-$72,831 NOT cap gain +$20,389

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$13,388/mo
vs 50% target ($12,811/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($25,622/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,891/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $895 is $353 below CC-SS $1247.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$66,977
… as % of IC ($50,000)	134.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	33.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-93,345

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.46/sh (~25% of the $17.85 collected) or spot ≥ $913.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $895)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $886.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $886-913.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $913.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$895.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,570	$-69,142	+$24,078	+$3,264
+2.5%	$917.37 (1.0σ)	$-905	$-68,954	+$24,266	-$1,211
+5%	$939.75 (1.2σ)	$-5,380	$-68,766	+$24,454	-$5,686
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.6σ)	$-61,430	$-66,412	+$26,808	-$61,736

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1247.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,220

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,018

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $895): -$66,977

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,179 (+$27,041 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,736, the opportunity cost of earning $13,388/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $835

7 Aug

4.8%

65%hist 80%

74%hist 59%

+14pp

$7,110

$26,662

+$13,275

$75,437

Sell 2 × $835 4.8% OTM over spot $796.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $36.42 mid)

= $7,110 credit for the 8d cycle → $26,662/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $835)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $871.42)

74%

EV / mo

+$6,955

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+14pp

58% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$7,623/mo

median; plan ~$5,184/mo after 68% keep · $41,826 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.2], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

59%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,080

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$1,048 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $57.88/sh now → $40.95 mid-life (likely $51.82–$74.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $35.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,756 simulated challenges: the $835 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $863 (overshoots $27.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$883	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$10.69/sh	+$2,139 cycle +$9,249 [-$262…+$1,373] · 68% credit	74% surv 65%	-$65,880 NOT cap gain +$27,340
Max even-money escape in the band	~$913	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.23/sh	+$46 cycle +$7,156 [-$2,871…-$966] · 14% credit	78% surv 71%	-$61,720 NOT cap gain +$31,500
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$835	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$16.46/sh	-$3,291 cycle +$3,819 [-$7,029…-$4,525] · 1% credit	61% surv 53%	-$81,398 NOT cap gain +$11,822
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,048	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$27.44/sh	-$5,489 cycle +$1,621 [-$10,326…-$7,101]	90% surv 89%	-$39,122 NOT cap gain +$54,098
budget: banked $7,110 debit $5,489 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,621 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,501/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$26,662/mo
vs 50% target ($12,811/mo)	+108%
vs normal income ($25,622/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$26,166/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $835 is $413 below CC-SS $1247.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$75,437
… as % of IC ($50,000)	150.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	38.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-93,395

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.89/sh (~25% of the $35.55 collected) or spot ≥ $871.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $835)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,054.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $826.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $827-871.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $871.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$835.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,110	$-78,106	+$15,114	+$6,804
+2.5%	$855.87 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,935	$-77,931	+$15,289	+$2,629
+5%	$876.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,240	$-77,756	+$15,464	-$1,546
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (3.6σ)	$-69,890	$-74,872	+$18,348	-$70,196

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1247.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,220

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,018

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $835): -$75,437

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-74,639 (+$18,581 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,196, the opportunity cost of earning $26,662/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (117 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 117 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.042 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$94,018 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,443

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$870	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.20	2/2	$13,800	$13,304	83%	86%	+$6,556	-$73,707	147.4%	$-72,909 (vs do-nothing $-68,466)
$865	4d	3 Aug 2026	$10.15	2/2	$15,225	$14,729	82%	85%	+$6,931	-$74,517	149.0%	$-73,719 (vs do-nothing $-69,276)
$895	8d	7 Aug 2026	$17.85	2/2	$13,388	$12,891	80%	84%	+$5,712	-$66,977	134.0%	$-66,179 (vs do-nothing $-61,736)
$880	6d	5 Aug 2026	$13.65	2/2	$13,650	$13,154	80%	84%	+$5,105	-$70,817	141.6%	$-70,019 (vs do-nothing $-65,576)
$860	4d	3 Aug 2026	$11.15	2/2	$16,725	$16,229	80%	84%	+$7,248	-$75,317	150.6%	$-74,519 (vs do-nothing $-70,076)
$890	8d	7 Aug 2026	$19.00	2/2	$14,250	$13,754	79%	83%	+$5,946	-$67,747	135.5%	$-66,949 (vs do-nothing $-62,506)
$875	6d	5 Aug 2026	$14.75	2/2	$14,750	$14,254	79%	82%	+$4,896	-$71,597	143.2%	$-70,799 (vs do-nothing $-66,356)
$855	4d	3 Aug 2026	$12.30	2/2	$18,450	$17,954	78%	83%	+$7,646	-$76,087	152.2%	$-75,289 (vs do-nothing $-70,846)
$885	8d	7 Aug 2026	$19.90	2/2	$14,925	$14,429	78%	83%	+$5,950	-$68,567	137.1%	$-67,769 (vs do-nothing $-63,326)
$870	6d	5 Aug 2026	$15.90	2/2	$15,900	$15,404	77%	82%	+$5,109	-$72,367	144.7%	$-71,569 (vs do-nothing $-67,126)
$880	8d	7 Aug 2026	$21.45	2/2	$16,088	$15,591	77%	82%	+$6,397	-$69,257	138.5%	$-68,459 (vs do-nothing $-64,016)
$850	4d	3 Aug 2026	$13.60	2/2	$20,400	$19,904	76%	81%	+$8,111	-$76,827	153.7%	$-76,029 (vs do-nothing $-71,586)
$875	8d	7 Aug 2026	$22.75	2/2	$17,062	$16,566	76%	81%	+$6,610	-$69,997	140.0%	$-69,199 (vs do-nothing $-64,756)

Show 104 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 104.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$865	6d	5 Aug 2026	$17.10	2/2	$17,100	$16,604	76%	81%	+$5,300	-$73,127	146.3%	$-72,329 (vs do-nothing $-67,886)
$870	8d	7 Aug 2026	$24.15	2/2	$18,112	$17,616	75%	80%	+$6,848	-$70,717	141.4%	$-69,919 (vs do-nothing $-65,476)
$860	6d	5 Aug 2026	$18.35	2/2	$18,350	$17,854	75%	80%	+$5,465	-$73,877	147.8%	$-73,079 (vs do-nothing $-68,636)
$845	4d	3 Aug 2026	$15.00	2/2	$22,500	$22,004	75%	80%	+$8,559	-$77,547	155.1%	$-76,749 (vs do-nothing $-72,306)
$885	15d	14 Aug 2026	$33.30	2/2	$13,320	$12,824	74%	80%	+$4,544	-$65,887	131.8%	$-65,089 (vs do-nothing $-60,646)
$865	8d	7 Aug 2026	$25.60	2/2	$19,200	$18,704	74%	80%	+$7,074	-$71,427	142.9%	$-70,629 (vs do-nothing $-66,186)
$855	6d	5 Aug 2026	$19.85	2/2	$19,850	$19,354	73%	79%	+$5,799	-$74,577	149.2%	$-73,779 (vs do-nothing $-69,336)
$880	15d	14 Aug 2026	$34.80	2/2	$13,920	$13,424	73%	79%	+$4,650	-$66,587	133.2%	$-65,789 (vs do-nothing $-61,346)
$870	11d	10 Aug 2026	$23.50	2/2	$12,818	$12,322	72%	78%	+$1,430	-$70,847	141.7%	$-70,049 (vs do-nothing $-65,606)
$860	8d	7 Aug 2026	$27.10	2/2	$20,325	$19,829	72%	79%	+$7,283	-$72,127	144.3%	$-71,329 (vs do-nothing $-66,886)
$850	6d	5 Aug 2026	$21.30	2/2	$21,300	$20,804	72%	78%	+$6,001	-$75,287	150.6%	$-74,489 (vs do-nothing $-70,046)
$875	15d	14 Aug 2026	$36.25	2/2	$14,500	$14,004	71%	78%	+$3,866	-$67,297	134.6%	$-66,499 (vs do-nothing $-62,056)
$870	13d	12 Aug 2026	$29.15	2/2	$13,454	$12,958	71%	78%	+$2,145	-$69,717	139.4%	$-68,919 (vs do-nothing $-64,476)
$865	11d	10 Aug 2026	$25.00	2/2	$13,636	$13,140	71%	77%	+$1,546	-$71,547	143.1%	$-70,749 (vs do-nothing $-66,306)
$840	4d	3 Aug 2026	$16.25	2/2	$24,375	$23,879	71%	77%	+$5,768	-$78,297	156.6%	$-77,499 (vs do-nothing $-73,056)
$855	8d	7 Aug 2026	$28.70	2/2	$21,525	$21,029	71%	78%	+$7,513	-$72,807	145.6%	$-72,009 (vs do-nothing $-67,566)
$870	15d	14 Aug 2026	$37.85	2/2	$15,140	$14,644	70%	77%	+$3,966	-$67,977	136.0%	$-67,179 (vs do-nothing $-62,736)
$865	13d	12 Aug 2026	$30.65	2/2	$14,146	$13,650	70%	77%	+$2,213	-$70,417	140.8%	$-69,619 (vs do-nothing $-65,176)
$860	11d	10 Aug 2026	$26.55	2/2	$14,482	$13,986	70%	77%	+$1,653	-$72,237	144.5%	$-71,439 (vs do-nothing $-66,996)
$845	6d	5 Aug 2026	$22.85	2/2	$22,850	$22,354	70%	77%	+$6,215	-$75,977	152.0%	$-75,179 (vs do-nothing $-70,736)
$865	15d	14 Aug 2026	$39.50	2/2	$15,800	$15,304	70%	77%	+$4,906	-$68,647	137.3%	$-67,849 (vs do-nothing $-63,406)
$835	4d	3 Aug 2026	$17.95	1/2	$13,462	$13,272	69%	76%	+$3,138	-$39,478	79.0%	$-41,301 (vs do-nothing $-36,858)
$860	13d	12 Aug 2026	$32.35	2/2	$14,931	$14,435	69%	76%	+$2,345	-$71,077	142.2%	$-70,279 (vs do-nothing $-65,836)
$870	22d	21 Aug 2026	$48.30	2/2	$13,173	$12,677	69%	77%	+$3,786	-$65,887	131.8%	$-65,089 (vs do-nothing $-60,646)
$850	8d	7 Aug 2026	$30.35	2/2	$22,762	$22,266	69%	77%	+$6,681	-$73,477	147.0%	$-72,679 (vs do-nothing $-68,236)
$855	11d	10 Aug 2026	$28.15	2/2	$15,355	$14,858	69%	76%	+$1,752	-$72,917	145.8%	$-72,119 (vs do-nothing $-67,676)
$860	15d	14 Aug 2026	$41.15	2/2	$16,460	$15,964	68%	76%	+$4,140	-$69,317	138.6%	$-68,519 (vs do-nothing $-64,076)
$840	6d	5 Aug 2026	$24.50	2/2	$24,500	$24,004	68%	76%	+$6,439	-$76,647	153.3%	$-75,849 (vs do-nothing $-71,406)
$865	22d	21 Aug 2026	$50.10	2/2	$13,664	$13,167	68%	77%	+$3,859	-$66,527	133.1%	$-65,729 (vs do-nothing $-61,286)
$855	13d	12 Aug 2026	$34.00	2/2	$15,692	$15,196	68%	76%	+$2,425	-$71,747	143.5%	$-70,949 (vs do-nothing $-66,506)
$855	15d	14 Aug 2026	$42.85	2/2	$17,140	$16,644	68%	76%	+$5,038	-$69,977	140.0%	$-69,179 (vs do-nothing $-64,736)
$850	11d	10 Aug 2026	$29.85	2/2	$16,282	$15,786	68%	75%	+$1,869	-$73,577	147.2%	$-72,779 (vs do-nothing $-68,336)
$845	8d	7 Aug 2026	$32.05	2/2	$24,037	$23,541	68%	76%	+$6,811	-$74,137	148.3%	$-73,339 (vs do-nothing $-68,896)
$860	22d	21 Aug 2026	$51.75	2/2	$14,114	$13,617	67%	76%	+$3,877	-$67,197	134.4%	$-66,399 (vs do-nothing $-61,956)
$830	4d	3 Aug 2026	$19.60	1/2	$14,700	$14,510	67%	75%	+$3,269	-$39,813	79.6%	$-41,636 (vs do-nothing $-37,193)
$850	13d	12 Aug 2026	$35.70	2/2	$16,477	$15,981	67%	75%	+$2,563	-$72,407	144.8%	$-71,609 (vs do-nothing $-67,166)
$835	6d	5 Aug 2026	$26.20	1/2	$13,100	$12,910	67%	75%	+$3,310	-$38,653	77.3%	$-40,476 (vs do-nothing $-36,033)
$855	22d	21 Aug 2026	$53.55	2/2	$14,605	$14,108	66%	76%	+$3,920	-$67,837	135.7%	$-67,039 (vs do-nothing $-62,596)
$850	15d	14 Aug 2026	$44.65	2/2	$17,860	$17,364	66%	75%	+$4,300	-$70,617	141.2%	$-69,819 (vs do-nothing $-65,376)
$840	8d	7 Aug 2026	$33.80	2/2	$25,350	$24,854	66%	75%	+$6,915	-$74,787	149.6%	$-73,989 (vs do-nothing $-69,546)
$845	13d	12 Aug 2026	$37.50	2/2	$17,308	$16,812	66%	74%	+$2,590	-$73,047	146.1%	$-72,249 (vs do-nothing $-67,806)
$845	15d	14 Aug 2026	$46.50	2/2	$18,600	$18,104	66%	75%	+$5,184	-$71,247	142.5%	$-70,449 (vs do-nothing $-66,006)
$850	22d	21 Aug 2026	$55.40	2/2	$15,109	$14,613	65%	75%	+$3,961	-$68,467	136.9%	$-67,669 (vs do-nothing $-63,226)
$825	4d	3 Aug 2026	$21.35	1/2	$16,012	$15,822	65%	74%	+$3,386	-$40,138	80.3%	$-41,961 (vs do-nothing $-37,518)
$830	6d	5 Aug 2026	$27.35	1/2	$13,675	$13,485	65%	74%	+$3,076	-$39,038	78.1%	$-40,861 (vs do-nothing $-36,418)
$835	8d	7 Aug 2026	$35.55	1/2	$13,331	$13,141	65%	74%	+$3,477	-$37,718	75.4%	$-39,541 (vs do-nothing $-35,098)
$840	13d	12 Aug 2026	$39.35	2/2	$18,162	$17,665	65%	74%	+$2,706	-$73,677	147.4%	$-72,879 (vs do-nothing $-68,436)
$845	22d	21 Aug 2026	$57.25	2/2	$15,614	$15,117	64%	75%	+$3,986	-$69,097	138.2%	$-68,299 (vs do-nothing $-63,856)
$840	15d	14 Aug 2026	$48.45	2/2	$19,380	$18,884	64%	74%	+$4,482	-$71,857	143.7%	$-71,059 (vs do-nothing $-66,616)
$840	22d	21 Aug 2026	$59.20	2/2	$16,145	$15,649	64%	74%	+$4,022	-$69,707	139.4%	$-68,909 (vs do-nothing $-64,466)
$835	13d	12 Aug 2026	$41.25	2/2	$19,038	$18,542	63%	73%	+$2,765	-$74,297	148.6%	$-73,499 (vs do-nothing $-69,056)
$830	8d	7 Aug 2026	$37.70	1/2	$14,138	$13,947	63%	74%	+$3,614	-$38,003	76.0%	$-39,826 (vs do-nothing $-35,383)
$825	6d	5 Aug 2026	$29.25	1/2	$14,625	$14,435	63%	73%	+$3,167	-$39,348	78.7%	$-41,171 (vs do-nothing $-36,728)
$835	15d	14 Aug 2026	$50.40	2/2	$20,160	$19,664	63%	73%	+$4,555	-$72,467	144.9%	$-71,669 (vs do-nothing $-67,226)
$820	4d	3 Aug 2026	$23.30	1/2	$17,475	$17,285	63%	73%	+$3,561	-$40,443	80.9%	$-42,266 (vs do-nothing $-37,823)
$835	22d	21 Aug 2026	$61.20	2/2	$16,691	$16,195	63%	74%	+$4,055	-$70,307	140.6%	$-69,509 (vs do-nothing $-65,066)
$830	13d	12 Aug 2026	$43.40	2/2	$20,031	$19,535	62%	73%	+$2,906	-$74,867	149.7%	$-74,069 (vs do-nothing $-69,626)
$830	15d	14 Aug 2026	$52.45	2/2	$20,980	$20,484	62%	73%	+$5,385	-$73,057	146.1%	$-72,259 (vs do-nothing $-67,816)
$825	8d	7 Aug 2026	$39.70	1/2	$14,888	$14,697	62%	73%	+$3,661	-$38,303	76.6%	$-40,126 (vs do-nothing $-35,683)
$830	22d	21 Aug 2026	$63.25	2/2	$17,250	$16,754	62%	73%	+$4,086	-$70,897	141.8%	$-70,099 (vs do-nothing $-65,656)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39