FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC970 @ $897.67

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1252.44 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC970 @ $897.67 UNDERWATER $322.33 (26.4% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1252.44 (banked floor $1,227.97) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $970 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $645.074/sh)

SP: $1110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $400.223/sh)

HP: $370 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.169/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$198,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $740) x 200
Normal income ref	$25,029/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$325/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-73,493	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$12,514/mo

HEDGE COVER
$325/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$25,029/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $50,000

ML VELOCITY
7.9 mo to earn back $198,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $1252.44 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $900C (14d, $25,029/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$5,088

Hole (after banked)

$68,405

was $73,493 · 7% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,252.44 → $1,227.97

? 5 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 63 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 51 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,253.88 (+40%) · daily UBB $1,021.35 · 1-wk expected move ±$117 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $1010 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 91%, breach 9%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($12,514/mo); it brings $13,200/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 2 × $977.50/2d for $25,050/mo, but breach risk rises to 10% (+2pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $1210/2d (99+% survival, $360/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $47,608 (95% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-73,523 and cuts bleed by $325/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 2 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (2d) · sell 2 × $1010, 91% survival, $13,200/mo (E[net] $9,674/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 2d	2 × $1010	91%	$13,200	$9,674
NEXT FRIDAY	14 Aug 2026 · 9d	2 × $1005	79%	$12,900	$139

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $880 with probability 90%; on the 10% touch you roll, paying $5,277 to close and taking $3,717 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,560) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 2d · E[net] $9,674/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1010 (50% normal), 91% survival, breach 9%, $13,200/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1030 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 94% (breach 9% → 6%) for $4,350/mo less (33% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $897.67 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $1210

7 Aug

34.8%

99+%hist 99%

1%hist 1%

-1pp

$24

$360

-$12,840

$8,464

Sell 2 × $1210 34.8% OTM over spot $897.67 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid)

= $24 credit for the 2d cycle → $360/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1210)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1210.17)

99+%

EV / mo

+$305

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

59% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-36/mo

median; plan ~$-25/mo after 68% keep · $-90 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,298

Free roll-up

+$40/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,402 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $44.70/sh now → $31.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,210	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$8.11/sh	+$1,622 cycle +$1,646	66% surv 52%	-$6,256 NOT cap gain +$67,237
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,227	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.18/sh	+$36 cycle +$60	70% surv 58%	-$4,202 NOT cap gain +$69,291
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,402	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.51/sh	+$102 cycle +$126	84% surv 81%	+$32,614 SAFE cap gain +$106,107
reaches SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$360/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$35/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1210 is $42 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,464
… as % of IC ($50,000)	16.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	4.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,504

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $1,210.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,197.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,198-1,210.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,210.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,210.00 (5.0σ)	$24	$-7,879	+$65,614	-$1,096
+2.5%	$1,240.25 (5.5σ)	$-6,026	$-7,576	+$65,917	-$3,096
+5%	$1,270.50 (5.9σ)	$-12,076	$-7,274	+$66,219	-$3,096

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1210): -$8,464

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,454 (+$66,039 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,096, the opportunity cost of earning $360/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

2 × $1030

7 Aug

14.7%

94%hist 99%

12%hist 6%

+2pp

$590

$8,850

-$4,350

$43,898

Sell 2 × $1030 14.7% OTM over spot $897.67 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $3.05 mid)

= $590 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,850/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1030)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1033.05)

94%

EV / mo

+$5,504

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

67% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,034/mo

median; plan ~$4,103/mo after 68% keep · $17,763 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,792

Free roll-up

+$52/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,247 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $38.05/sh now → $26.91 mid-life (likely $26.43–$54.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 189 simulated challenges: the $1,030 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,062 (overshoots $32.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,030	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$10.26/sh	+$2,053 cycle +$2,643 [+$1,343…+$2,454] · 92% credit	67% surv 52%	-$43,060 NOT cap gain +$30,433
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,142	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$18.73/sh	+$3,746 cycle +$4,336 [+$1,184…+$4,263] · 84% credit	78% surv 72%	-$17,776 NOT cap gain +$55,717
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,052	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.61/sh	+$121 cycle +$711 [-$1,537…+$283] · 35% credit	71% surv 61%	-$40,301 NOT cap gain +$33,192
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,227	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.57/sh	+$115 cycle +$705 [-$3,491…+$415] · 32% credit	85% surv 82%	-$3,558 NOT cap gain +$69,935
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,247	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$2.56/sh	-$512 cycle +$78 [-$4,316…-$247] · 21% credit	86% surv 84%	+$16 SAFE cap gain +$73,509
budget: banked $590 debit $512 (87% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $6,641/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,850/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,525/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1030 is $222 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,898
… as % of IC ($50,000)	87.8%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	22.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,513

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.74/sh (~25% of the $2.95 collected) or spot ≥ $1,033.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,030)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,019.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,020-1,033.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,033.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,030.00 (2.1σ)	$590	$-45,113	+$28,380	-$530
+2.5%	$1,055.75 (2.5σ)	$-4,560	$-44,855	+$28,638	-$5,680
+5%	$1,081.50 (2.9σ)	$-9,710	$-44,598	+$28,895	-$10,830
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (5.1σ)	$-37,410	$-43,213	+$30,280	-$38,530

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1030): -$43,898

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,888 (+$30,605 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,530, the opportunity cost of earning $8,850/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1010

7 Aug

12.5%

91%hist 99%

18%hist 6%

+7pp

$880

$13,200

—

$47,608

Sell 2 × $1010 12.5% OTM over spot $897.67 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $4.55 mid)

= $880 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1010)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1014.55)

92%

EV / mo

+$7,353

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$8,010/mo

median; plan ~$5,447/mo after 68% keep · $22,344 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,397

Free roll-up

+$52/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,237 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Buyback gross: $37.31/sh now → $26.39 mid-life (likely $28.53–$52.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 289 simulated challenges: the $1,010 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,044 (overshoots $33.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,010	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$10.43/sh	+$2,086 cycle +$2,966 [+$1,415…+$2,371] · 92% credit	67% surv 52%	-$46,937 NOT cap gain +$26,556
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,122	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$18.58/sh	+$3,717 cycle +$4,597 [+$1,250…+$3,900] · 83% credit	78% surv 73%	-$21,716 NOT cap gain +$51,777
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,032	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.79/sh	+$158 cycle +$1,038 [-$1,488…+$109] · 30% credit	71% surv 61%	-$44,174 NOT cap gain +$29,319
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,207	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.57/sh	+$114 cycle +$994 [-$3,388…-$10] · 25% credit	85% surv 83%	-$7,468 NOT cap gain +$66,025
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,237	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$4.00/sh	-$801 cycle +$79 [-$4,590…-$993] · 8% credit	87% surv 85%	-$2,083 NOT cap gain +$71,410
budget: banked $880 debit $801 (91% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $6,104/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$13,200/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,875/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1010 is $242 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$47,608
… as % of IC ($50,000)	95.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	24.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,523

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.10/sh (~25% of the $4.40 collected) or spot ≥ $1,014.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,010)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $999.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,000-1,014.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,014.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,010.00 (1.8σ)	$880	$-49,023	+$24,470	-$240
+2.5%	$1,035.25 (2.2σ)	$-4,170	$-48,770	+$24,723	-$5,290
+5%	$1,060.50 (2.6σ)	$-9,220	$-48,518	+$24,975	-$10,340
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (5.1σ)	$-41,120	$-46,923	+$26,570	-$42,240

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1010): -$47,608

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,598 (+$26,895 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,240, the opportunity cost of earning $13,200/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $982.50

7 Aug

9.5%

91%hist 99%

19%hist 6%

+14pp

$1,510

$22,650

+$9,450

$52,478

Sell 2 × $982.50 9.5% OTM over spot $897.67 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $7.75 mid)

= $1,510 credit for the 2d cycle → $22,650/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $982.50)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $990.25)

92%

EV / mo

+$17,962

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+14pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$11,889/mo

median; plan ~$8,085/mo after 68% keep · $38,587 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,624

Free roll-up

+$52/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,235 @ 89% POP

88% survival

Buyback gross: $36.29/sh now → $25.67 mid-life (likely $28.86–$53.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$18.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 495 simulated challenges: the $982 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,016 (overshoots $33.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$982	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$10.63/sh	+$2,127 cycle +$3,637 [+$1,333…+$2,118] · 93% credit	67% surv 52%	-$52,041 NOT cap gain +$21,452
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,095	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$18.34/sh	+$3,667 cycle +$5,177 [+$916…+$3,516] · 81% credit	79% surv 73%	-$26,910 NOT cap gain +$46,583
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,005	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.02/sh	+$204 cycle +$1,714 [-$1,470…+$68] · 28% credit	71% surv 61%	-$49,274 NOT cap gain +$24,219
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,180	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.53/sh	+$106 cycle +$1,616 [-$3,664…-$199] · 20% credit	85% surv 83%	-$12,621 NOT cap gain +$60,872
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,235	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$7.13/sh	-$1,426 cycle +$84 [-$5,704…-$1,838]	89% surv 88%	-$2,604 NOT cap gain +$70,889
budget: banked $1,510 debit $1,426 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,055/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$22,650/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	+81%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	90% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22,325/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $982.50 is $270 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$52,478
… as % of IC ($50,000)	105.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	26.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,533

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.89/sh (~25% of the $7.55 collected) or spot ≥ $990.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $982)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $972.67	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $973-990.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $990.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$982.50 (1.4σ)	$1,510	$-54,168	+$19,325	+$390
+2.5%	$1,007.06 (1.7σ)	$-3,402	$-53,922	+$19,571	-$4,522
+5%	$1,031.62 (2.1σ)	$-8,315	$-53,676	+$19,817	-$9,435
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (5.1σ)	$-45,990	$-51,793	+$21,700	-$47,110

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $982.50): -$52,478

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,468 (+$22,025 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,110, the opportunity cost of earning $22,650/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $977.50

7 Aug

8.9%

90%hist 95%

21%hist 18%

+14pp

$1,670

$25,050

+$11,850

$53,318

Sell 2 × $977.50 8.9% OTM over spot $897.67 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $8.55 mid)

= $1,670 credit for the 2d cycle → $25,050/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $977.50)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $986.05)

92%

EV / mo

+$19,372

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+14pp

73% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$13,244/mo

median; plan ~$9,006/mo after 68% keep · $41,039 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,437

Free roll-up

+$52/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,240 @ 89% POP

88% survival

Buyback gross: $36.11/sh now → $25.54 mid-life (likely $28.81–$54.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 550 simulated challenges: the $978 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,010 (overshoots $32.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$978	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$10.67/sh	+$2,134 cycle +$3,804 [+$1,326…+$2,162] · 93% credit	67% surv 52%	-$52,924 NOT cap gain +$20,569
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,090	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$18.29/sh	+$3,657 cycle +$5,327 [+$928…+$3,511] · 82% credit	79% surv 73%	-$27,810 NOT cap gain +$45,683
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,000	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.06/sh	+$211 cycle +$1,881 [-$1,503…+$67] · 29% credit	71% surv 61%	-$50,156 NOT cap gain +$23,337
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,175	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.52/sh	+$104 cycle +$1,774 [-$3,681…-$216] · 18% credit	85% surv 83%	-$13,513 NOT cap gain +$59,980
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,240	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$8.26/sh	-$1,651 cycle +$19 [-$6,012…-$2,099]	89% surv 88%	-$1,619 NOT cap gain +$71,874
budget: banked $1,670 debit $1,651 (99% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,713/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$25,050/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	+100%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$24,725/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $977.50 is $275 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$53,318
… as % of IC ($50,000)	106.6%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	26.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,533

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.09/sh (~25% of the $8.35 collected) or spot ≥ $986.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $978)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $967.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $968-986.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $986.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$977.50 (1.3σ)	$1,670	$-55,058	+$18,435	+$550
+2.5%	$1,001.94 (1.7σ)	$-3,217	$-54,813	+$18,680	-$4,337
+5%	$1,026.38 (2.1σ)	$-8,105	$-54,569	+$18,924	-$9,225
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (5.1σ)	$-46,830	$-52,633	+$20,860	-$47,950

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $977.50): -$53,318

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,308 (+$21,185 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,950, the opportunity cost of earning $25,050/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 14 Aug 2026 · 9d · E[net] $139/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 2 × $1005 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $12,900/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1045 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 21% → 14%) for $4,400/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1045 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $897.67 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $1280

14 Aug

42.6%

98%hist 99%

3%hist 1%

-1pp

$118

$393

-$12,507

Sell 1 × $1280 42.6% OTM over spot $897.67 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.32 mid)

= $118 credit for the 9d cycle → $393/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1280)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1281.33)

98%

EV / mo

+$257

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,034/mo

median; plan ~$703/mo after 68% keep · $3,364 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,590

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,347 @ 74% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $80.68/sh now → $57.08 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$55.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,280	17 Aug 2026	8d left	-$6.59/sh	-$659 cycle -$541	66% surv 52%	+$816 SAFE cap gain +$74,309
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,347	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.92/sh	+$92 cycle +$210	74% surv 65%	+$8,974 SAFE cap gain +$82,467

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$393/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,118/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1280 is at/above CC-SS $1252.44: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($50,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-36,761

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.18 collected) or spot ≥ $1,281.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,267.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,267-1,281.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,281.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,280.00 (2.9σ)	$118	$1,475	+$74,968	+$5,558
+2.5%	$1,312.00 (3.1σ)	$-3,082	$1,795	+$75,288	+$5,558
+5%	$1,344.00 (3.4σ)	$-6,282	$2,115	+$75,608	+$5,558

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1280): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$2,684

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,675 (+$71,818 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,684, the opportunity cost of earning $393/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

2 × $1085

14 Aug

20.9%

90%hist 99%

21%hist 18%

+3pp

$1,660

$5,533

-$7,367

$31,828

Sell 2 × $1085 20.9% OTM over spot $897.67 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $8.55 mid)

= $1,660 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,533/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1085)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1093.55)

91%

EV / mo

+$2,484

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

57% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,005/mo

median; plan ~$2,043/mo after 68% keep · $14,740 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,016

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,197 @ 79% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $68.39/sh now → $48.38 mid-life (likely $41.26–$70.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$40.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 430 simulated challenges: the $1,085 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,115 (overshoots $30.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,147	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$7.22/sh	+$1,444 cycle +$3,104 [+$54…+$3,093] · 76% credit	74% surv 65%	-$17,958 NOT cap gain +$55,535
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,167	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.68/sh	+$135 cycle +$1,795 [-$1,456…+$1,606] · 50% credit	76% surv 69%	-$15,067 NOT cap gain +$58,426
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,085	17 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.71/sh	-$141 cycle +$1,519 [-$819…+$1,165] · 49% credit	66% surv 53%	-$32,634 NOT cap gain +$40,859
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,197	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$7.82/sh	-$1,565 cycle +$95 [-$3,540…-$296] · 22% credit	79% surv 73%	-$10,467 NOT cap gain +$63,026
budget: banked $1,660 debit $1,565 (94% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$95 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,519/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,533/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	-56%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,208/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1085 is $167 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,828
… as % of IC ($50,000)	63.7%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	16.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,543

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.08/sh (~25% of the $8.30 collected) or spot ≥ $1,093.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,085)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,074.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,074-1,093.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,093.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,085.00 (1.4σ)	$1,660	$-32,493	+$41,000	+$540
+2.5%	$1,112.12 (1.6σ)	$-3,765	$-32,221	+$41,272	-$4,885
+5%	$1,139.25 (1.8σ)	$-9,190	$-31,950	+$41,543	-$10,310
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.4σ)	$-25,340	$-31,143	+$42,350	-$26,460

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1085): -$31,828

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,818 (+$42,675 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,460, the opportunity cost of earning $5,533/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

2 × $1045

14 Aug

16.4%

86%hist 95%

30%hist 22%

+4pp

$2,550

$8,500

-$4,400

$38,938

Sell 2 × $1045 16.4% OTM over spot $897.67 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $13.03 mid)

= $2,550 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1045)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $1058.03)

87%

EV / mo

+$3,271

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,362/mo

median; plan ~$2,966/mo after 68% keep · $17,569 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,769

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,177 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $65.87/sh now → $46.60 mid-life (likely $44.61–$69.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 662 simulated challenges: the $1,045 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,074 (overshoots $29.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,107	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$7.79/sh	+$1,559 cycle +$4,109 [-$96…+$2,475] · 73% credit	74% surv 66%	-$25,353 NOT cap gain +$48,140
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,045	17 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.28/sh	+$57 cycle +$2,607 [-$878…+$802] · 45% credit	66% surv 53%	-$39,946 NOT cap gain +$33,547
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,127	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.30/sh	+$260 cycle +$2,810 [-$1,600…+$1,070] · 40% credit	76% surv 69%	-$22,452 NOT cap gain +$51,041
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,177	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$11.90/sh	-$2,380 cycle +$170 [-$4,816…-$1,785] · 10% credit	81% surv 77%	-$14,593 NOT cap gain +$58,900
budget: banked $2,550 debit $2,380 (93% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $11,565/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,500/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,175/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1045 is $207 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$38,938
… as % of IC ($50,000)	77.9%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	19.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,548

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.19/sh (~25% of the $12.75 collected) or spot ≥ $1,058.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,045)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,034.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,035-1,058.03	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,058.03	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,045.00 (1.1σ)	$2,550	$-40,003	+$33,490	+$1,430
+2.5%	$1,071.12 (1.3σ)	$-2,675	$-39,741	+$33,752	-$3,795
+5%	$1,097.25 (1.5σ)	$-7,900	$-39,480	+$34,013	-$9,020
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.4σ)	$-32,450	$-38,253	+$35,240	-$33,570

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1045): -$38,938

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,928 (+$35,565 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,570, the opportunity cost of earning $8,500/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

2 × $1005

14 Aug

12.0%

79%hist 92%

44%hist 32%

+5pp

$3,870

$12,900

—

$45,618

Sell 2 × $1005 12.0% OTM over spot $897.67 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $19.70 mid)

= $3,870 credit for the 9d cycle → $12,900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1005)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $1024.70)

83%

EV / mo

+$4,048

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

65% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,657/mo

median; plan ~$3,847/mo after 68% keep · $22,588 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,093

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,177 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $63.34/sh now → $44.81 mid-life (likely $48.36–$75.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $19.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,027 simulated challenges: the $1,005 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,038 (overshoots $32.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,067	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$8.25/sh	+$1,650 cycle +$5,520 [-$520…+$1,843] · 63% credit	75% surv 66%	-$32,343 NOT cap gain +$41,150
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,005	17 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.20/sh	+$240 cycle +$4,110 [-$992…+$525] · 35% credit	66% surv 53%	-$46,843 NOT cap gain +$26,650
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,007	17 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$17 cycle +$3,887 [-$1,267…+$251] · 30% credit	66% surv 53%	-$46,575 NOT cap gain +$26,918
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,092	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.32/sh	+$63 cycle +$3,933 [-$2,519…+$77] · 26% credit	77% surv 70%	-$28,679 NOT cap gain +$44,814
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,177	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$19.28/sh	-$3,857 cycle +$13 [-$7,594…-$4,237] · 1% credit	85% surv 82%	-$14,749 NOT cap gain +$58,744
budget: banked $3,870 debit $3,857 (100% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,510/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$12,900/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,575/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1005 is $247 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$45,618
… as % of IC ($50,000)	91.2%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	23.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,563

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.84/sh (~25% of the $19.35 collected) or spot ≥ $1,024.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,005)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $994.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $995-1,024.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,024.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,005.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,870	$-47,083	+$26,410	+$2,750
+2.5%	$1,030.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,155	$-46,831	+$26,662	-$2,275
+5%	$1,055.25 (1.2σ)	$-6,180	$-46,580	+$26,913	-$7,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.4σ)	$-39,130	$-44,933	+$28,560	-$40,250

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1005): -$45,618

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,608 (+$28,885 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,250, the opportunity cost of earning $12,900/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

2 × $935

14 Aug

4.2%

63%hist 78%

77%hist 59%

+10pp

$7,760

$25,867

+$12,967

$55,728

Sell 2 × $935 4.2% OTM over spot $897.67 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $39.25 mid)

= $7,760 credit for the 9d cycle → $25,867/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $935)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $974.25)

73%

EV / mo

+$5,148

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$8,697/mo

median; plan ~$5,914/mo after 68% keep · $33,101 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-4.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

60%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$578

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$1,177 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $58.93/sh now → $41.69 mid-life (likely $54.72–$75.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $38.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,815 simulated challenges: the $935 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $964 (overshoots $29.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$987	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$12.17/sh	+$2,434 cycle +$10,194 [+$79…+$1,438] · 76% credit	74% surv 65%	-$44,469 NOT cap gain +$29,024
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$935	17 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.62/sh	+$525 cycle +$8,285 [-$929…-$49] · 23% credit	66% surv 53%	-$57,368 NOT cap gain +$16,125
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$937	17 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.52/sh	+$303 cycle +$8,063 [-$1,208…-$304] · 18% credit	66% surv 53%	-$57,099 NOT cap gain +$16,394
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,022	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.96/sh	+$193 cycle +$7,953 [-$2,699…-$980] · 13% credit	77% surv 71%	-$39,360 NOT cap gain +$34,133
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,177	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$27.51/sh	-$5,502 cycle +$2,258 [-$10,315…-$7,393]	90% surv 89%	-$12,504 NOT cap gain +$60,989
budget: banked $7,760 debit $5,502 (71% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,258 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,728/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$25,867/mo
vs 50% target ($12,514/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($25,029/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$25,542/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $935 is $317 below CC-SS $1252.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$55,728
… as % of IC ($50,000)	111.5%
… as % of ML ($198,000)	28.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-73,583

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.70/sh (~25% of the $38.80 collected) or spot ≥ $974.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $935)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,021.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $925.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $926-974.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $974.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$935.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,760	$-57,893	+$15,600	+$6,640
+2.5%	$958.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,085	$-57,659	+$15,834	+$1,965
+5%	$981.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,590	$-57,425	+$16,068	-$2,710
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (2.4σ)	$-49,240	$-55,043	+$18,450	-$50,360

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1252.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-73,493

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$74,502

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $935): -$55,728

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,718 (+$18,775 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,358 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,360, the opportunity cost of earning $25,867/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (173 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 173 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.050 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$74,502 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,358

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1010	2d	7 Aug 2026	$4.40	2/2	$13,200	$12,875	91%	92%	+$7,353	-$47,608	95.2%	$-46,598 (vs do-nothing $-42,240)
$982.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$7.55	2/2	$22,650	$22,325	91%	92%	+$17,962	-$52,478	105.0%	$-51,468 (vs do-nothing $-47,110)
$1005	2d	7 Aug 2026	$4.85	2/2	$14,550	$14,225	90%	91%	+$7,518	-$48,518	97.0%	$-47,508 (vs do-nothing $-43,150)
$977.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$8.35	1/2	$12,525	$13,250	90%	92%	+$9,686	-$26,659	53.3%	$-28,333 (vs do-nothing $-23,975)
$1000	2d	7 Aug 2026	$5.35	2/2	$16,050	$15,725	89%	90%	+$8,041	-$49,418	98.8%	$-48,408 (vs do-nothing $-44,050)
$972.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$9.15	1/2	$13,725	$14,450	88%	91%	+$10,303	-$27,079	54.2%	$-28,753 (vs do-nothing $-24,395)
$995	2d	7 Aug 2026	$5.90	2/2	$17,700	$17,375	88%	89%	+$8,459	-$50,308	100.6%	$-49,298 (vs do-nothing $-44,940)
$990	2d	7 Aug 2026	$6.50	2/2	$19,500	$19,175	87%	88%	+$8,890	-$51,188	102.4%	$-50,178 (vs do-nothing $-45,820)
$967.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$10.10	1/2	$15,150	$15,875	87%	90%	+$11,044	-$27,484	55.0%	$-29,158 (vs do-nothing $-24,800)
$985	2d	7 Aug 2026	$7.20	2/2	$21,600	$21,275	86%	88%	+$9,662	-$52,048	104.1%	$-51,038 (vs do-nothing $-46,680)
$962.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$11.05	1/2	$16,575	$17,300	85%	88%	+$11,672	-$27,889	55.8%	$-29,563 (vs do-nothing $-25,205)
$980	2d	7 Aug 2026	$7.95	2/2	$23,850	$23,525	85%	87%	+$10,292	-$52,898	105.8%	$-51,888 (vs do-nothing $-47,530)
$975	2d	7 Aug 2026	$8.75	1/2	$13,125	$13,850	83%	86%	+$5,418	-$26,869	53.7%	$-28,543 (vs do-nothing $-24,185)

Show 160 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 160.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$990	5d	10 Aug 2026	$10.55	2/2	$12,660	$12,335	83%	85%	+$4,719	-$50,378	100.8%	$-49,368 (vs do-nothing $-45,010)
$985	5d	10 Aug 2026	$11.40	2/2	$13,680	$13,355	82%	84%	+$4,919	-$51,208	102.4%	$-50,198 (vs do-nothing $-45,840)
$970	2d	7 Aug 2026	$9.60	1/2	$14,400	$15,125	82%	84%	+$5,583	-$27,284	54.6%	$-28,958 (vs do-nothing $-24,600)
$1000	7d	12 Aug 2026	$15.00	2/2	$12,857	$12,532	81%	84%	+$4,531	-$47,488	95.0%	$-46,478 (vs do-nothing $-42,120)
$980	5d	10 Aug 2026	$12.30	2/2	$14,760	$14,435	80%	84%	+$5,104	-$52,028	104.1%	$-51,018 (vs do-nothing $-46,660)
$965	2d	7 Aug 2026	$10.55	1/2	$15,825	$16,550	80%	83%	+$5,954	-$27,689	55.4%	$-29,363 (vs do-nothing $-25,005)
$995	7d	12 Aug 2026	$15.75	2/2	$13,500	$13,175	80%	83%	+$4,514	-$48,338	96.7%	$-47,328 (vs do-nothing $-42,970)
$975	5d	10 Aug 2026	$13.30	2/2	$15,960	$15,635	79%	83%	+$5,330	-$52,828	105.7%	$-51,818 (vs do-nothing $-47,460)
$1005	9d	14 Aug 2026	$19.35	2/2	$12,900	$12,575	79%	83%	+$4,048	-$45,618	91.2%	$-44,608 (vs do-nothing $-40,250)
$990	7d	12 Aug 2026	$16.75	2/2	$14,357	$14,032	79%	82%	+$4,664	-$49,138	98.3%	$-48,128 (vs do-nothing $-43,770)
$960	2d	7 Aug 2026	$11.60	1/2	$17,400	$18,125	79%	82%	+$6,407	-$28,084	56.2%	$-29,758 (vs do-nothing $-25,400)
$1000	9d	14 Aug 2026	$20.60	2/2	$13,733	$13,408	78%	82%	+$4,295	-$46,368	92.7%	$-45,358 (vs do-nothing $-41,000)
$985	7d	12 Aug 2026	$17.80	2/2	$15,257	$14,932	78%	82%	+$4,807	-$49,928	99.9%	$-48,918 (vs do-nothing $-44,560)
$957.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$12.15	1/2	$18,225	$18,950	78%	82%	+$6,549	-$28,279	56.6%	$-29,953 (vs do-nothing $-25,595)
$970	5d	10 Aug 2026	$14.35	2/2	$17,220	$16,895	78%	82%	+$5,531	-$53,618	107.2%	$-52,608 (vs do-nothing $-48,250)
$995	9d	14 Aug 2026	$21.65	2/2	$14,433	$14,108	77%	81%	+$4,373	-$47,158	94.3%	$-46,148 (vs do-nothing $-41,790)
$955	2d	7 Aug 2026	$12.70	1/2	$19,050	$19,775	77%	81%	+$6,657	-$28,474	56.9%	$-30,148 (vs do-nothing $-25,790)
$980	7d	12 Aug 2026	$18.90	2/2	$16,200	$15,875	77%	81%	+$4,941	-$50,708	101.4%	$-49,698 (vs do-nothing $-45,340)
$990	9d	14 Aug 2026	$22.80	2/2	$15,200	$14,875	76%	81%	+$4,483	-$47,928	95.9%	$-46,918 (vs do-nothing $-42,560)
$965	5d	10 Aug 2026	$15.50	2/2	$18,600	$18,275	76%	80%	+$5,387	-$54,388	108.8%	$-53,378 (vs do-nothing $-49,020)
$975	7d	12 Aug 2026	$20.05	2/2	$17,186	$16,861	76%	80%	+$5,062	-$51,478	103.0%	$-50,468 (vs do-nothing $-46,110)
$985	9d	14 Aug 2026	$24.05	2/2	$16,033	$15,708	75%	80%	+$4,623	-$48,678	97.4%	$-47,668 (vs do-nothing $-43,310)
$950	2d	7 Aug 2026	$13.90	1/2	$20,850	$21,575	75%	80%	+$6,916	-$28,854	57.7%	$-30,528 (vs do-nothing $-26,170)
$960	5d	10 Aug 2026	$16.70	2/2	$20,040	$19,715	75%	79%	+$5,462	-$55,148	110.3%	$-54,138 (vs do-nothing $-49,780)
$970	7d	12 Aug 2026	$21.25	2/2	$18,214	$17,889	74%	79%	+$5,169	-$52,238	104.5%	$-51,228 (vs do-nothing $-46,870)
$980	9d	14 Aug 2026	$25.25	2/2	$16,833	$16,508	74%	79%	+$4,691	-$49,438	98.9%	$-48,428 (vs do-nothing $-44,070)
$995	16d	21 Aug 2026	$33.90	2/2	$12,712	$12,388	74%	79%	+$3,278	-$44,708	89.4%	$-43,698 (vs do-nothing $-39,340)
$945	2d	7 Aug 2026	$15.20	1/2	$22,800	$23,525	73%	79%	+$7,175	-$29,224	58.4%	$-30,898 (vs do-nothing $-26,540)
$955	5d	10 Aug 2026	$17.95	2/2	$21,540	$21,215	73%	79%	+$5,765	-$55,898	111.8%	$-54,888 (vs do-nothing $-50,530)
$975	9d	14 Aug 2026	$26.60	2/2	$17,733	$17,408	73%	79%	+$4,818	-$50,168	100.3%	$-49,158 (vs do-nothing $-44,800)
$965	7d	12 Aug 2026	$22.55	2/2	$19,329	$19,004	73%	79%	+$5,301	-$52,978	106.0%	$-51,968 (vs do-nothing $-47,610)
$990	16d	21 Aug 2026	$35.25	2/2	$13,219	$12,894	73%	78%	+$3,331	-$45,438	90.9%	$-44,428 (vs do-nothing $-40,070)
$970	9d	14 Aug 2026	$27.75	2/2	$18,500	$18,175	72%	78%	+$4,771	-$50,938	101.9%	$-49,928 (vs do-nothing $-45,570)
$985	16d	21 Aug 2026	$36.55	2/2	$13,706	$13,381	72%	78%	+$3,346	-$46,178	92.4%	$-45,168 (vs do-nothing $-40,810)
$960	7d	12 Aug 2026	$23.90	2/2	$20,486	$20,161	72%	78%	+$5,412	-$53,708	107.4%	$-52,698 (vs do-nothing $-48,340)
$950	5d	10 Aug 2026	$19.25	2/2	$23,100	$22,775	72%	78%	+$5,888	-$56,638	113.3%	$-55,628 (vs do-nothing $-51,270)
$940	2d	7 Aug 2026	$16.60	1/2	$24,900	$25,625	71%	78%	+$7,424	-$29,584	59.2%	$-31,258 (vs do-nothing $-26,900)
$980	16d	21 Aug 2026	$37.95	2/2	$14,231	$13,906	71%	77%	+$3,380	-$46,898	93.8%	$-45,888 (vs do-nothing $-41,530)
$965	9d	14 Aug 2026	$29.20	2/2	$19,467	$19,142	71%	77%	+$4,881	-$51,648	103.3%	$-50,638 (vs do-nothing $-46,280)
$955	7d	12 Aug 2026	$25.30	2/2	$21,686	$21,361	70%	77%	+$5,501	-$54,428	108.9%	$-53,418 (vs do-nothing $-49,060)
$962.50	9d	14 Aug 2026	$29.95	2/2	$19,967	$19,642	70%	77%	+$4,936	-$51,998	104.0%	$-50,988 (vs do-nothing $-46,630)
$975	16d	21 Aug 2026	$39.45	2/2	$14,794	$14,469	70%	77%	+$3,433	-$47,598	95.2%	$-46,588 (vs do-nothing $-42,230)
$945	5d	10 Aug 2026	$20.65	2/2	$24,780	$24,455	70%	76%	+$5,905	-$57,358	114.7%	$-56,348 (vs do-nothing $-51,990)
$985	23d	28 Aug 2026	$49.25	2/2	$12,848	$12,523	70%	77%	+$3,011	-$43,638	87.3%	$-42,628 (vs do-nothing $-38,270)
$960	9d	14 Aug 2026	$30.60	2/2	$20,400	$20,075	70%	77%	+$4,913	-$52,368	104.7%	$-51,358 (vs do-nothing $-47,000)
$935	2d	7 Aug 2026	$18.10	1/2	$27,150	$27,875	69%	76%	+$7,654	-$29,934	59.9%	$-31,608 (vs do-nothing $-27,250)
$957.50	9d	14 Aug 2026	$31.35	2/2	$20,900	$20,575	69%	76%	+$4,946	-$52,718	105.4%	$-51,708 (vs do-nothing $-47,350)
$970	16d	21 Aug 2026	$40.90	2/2	$15,338	$15,012	69%	76%	+$3,447	-$48,308	96.6%	$-47,298 (vs do-nothing $-42,940)
$980	23d	28 Aug 2026	$50.75	2/2	$13,239	$12,914	69%	76%	+$3,031	-$44,338	88.7%	$-43,328 (vs do-nothing $-38,970)
$950	7d	12 Aug 2026	$26.80	2/2	$22,971	$22,646	69%	76%	+$5,607	-$55,128	110.3%	$-54,118 (vs do-nothing $-49,760)
$955	9d	14 Aug 2026	$32.10	2/2	$21,400	$21,075	68%	76%	+$4,966	-$53,068	106.1%	$-52,058 (vs do-nothing $-47,700)
$975	23d	28 Aug 2026	$52.30	2/2	$13,643	$13,318	68%	76%	+$3,052	-$45,028	90.1%	$-44,018 (vs do-nothing $-39,660)
$940	5d	10 Aug 2026	$22.25	1/2	$13,350	$14,075	68%	75%	+$2,961	-$29,019	58.0%	$-30,693 (vs do-nothing $-26,335)
$965	16d	21 Aug 2026	$42.45	2/2	$15,919	$15,594	68%	76%	+$3,480	-$48,998	98.0%	$-47,988 (vs do-nothing $-43,630)
$962.50	16d	21 Aug 2026	$43.25	2/2	$16,219	$15,894	68%	75%	+$3,497	-$49,338	98.7%	$-48,328 (vs do-nothing $-43,970)
$945	7d	12 Aug 2026	$28.30	2/2	$24,257	$23,932	68%	75%	+$5,642	-$55,828	111.7%	$-54,818 (vs do-nothing $-50,460)
$970	23d	28 Aug 2026	$53.90	2/2	$14,061	$13,736	67%	75%	+$3,074	-$45,708	91.4%	$-44,698 (vs do-nothing $-40,340)
$950	9d	14 Aug 2026	$33.70	2/2	$22,467	$22,142	67%	75%	+$5,037	-$53,748	107.5%	$-52,738 (vs do-nothing $-48,380)
$960	16d	21 Aug 2026	$44.05	2/2	$16,519	$16,194	67%	75%	+$3,510	-$49,678	99.4%	$-48,668 (vs do-nothing $-44,310)
$930	2d	7 Aug 2026	$19.65	1/2	$29,475	$30,200	67%	75%	+$7,784	-$30,279	60.6%	$-31,953 (vs do-nothing $-27,595)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-05 21:42