5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $117.15 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,129/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $257/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-12,280 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $98 | 72% | $1,736 | $-91 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.8% | 94% | 12% | $65 | $279 | -$1,457 | $6,011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 10.8% OTM over spot $94.77 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $65 credit for the 7d cycle → $279/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $105.25) 94% EV / mo +$92 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.1-4.7] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-278 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,079 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $109 @ 71% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.23/sh now → $2.29 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 164 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $106 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $12 below CC-SS $117.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $105.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,617 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$6,011 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,675 (+$5,605 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,235 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,440, the opportunity cost of earning $279/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,575, position total $-6,843 (+$5,437 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $100 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.5% | 82% | 38% | $275 | $1,179 | -$557 | $8,301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 5.5% OTM over spot $94.77 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $275 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,179/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $100.65) 84% EV / mo +$294 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.6-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,228 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$755 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $106 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $1.98–$3.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 772 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $101 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $17 below CC-SS $117.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $100.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,617 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,301 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,965 (+$3,315 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,235 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,730, the opportunity cost of earning $1,179/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,865, position total $-9,133 (+$3,147 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $98 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.4% | 72% | 43% | $405 | $1,736 | — | $9,171 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $98 3.4% OTM over spot $94.77 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.09 mid) = $405 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,736/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $99.09) 78% EV / mo +$74 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-5.1] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~12.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,232 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$582 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $103 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.79/sh now → $1.97 mid-life (likely $2.23–$3.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,296 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $99 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $19 below CC-SS $117.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $99.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,617 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$9,171 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,835 (+$2,445 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,235 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,600, the opportunity cost of earning $1,736/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,735, position total $-10,003 (+$2,277 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $95 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.2% | 53% | 97% | $860 | $3,686 | +$1,950 | $8,001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $95 0.2% OTM over spot $94.77 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.31 mid) = $860 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,686/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $97.31) 68% EV / mo +$567 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.6] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~31.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,023 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$122 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $110 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.61/sh now → $1.85 mid-life (likely $2.59–$3.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,262 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $97 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $22 below CC-SS $117.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.15 collected) or spot ≥ $97.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,617 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $95): -$8,001 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$514 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,179 (+$3,101 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,235 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,944, the opportunity cost of earning $3,686/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,452, position total $-9,719 (+$2,561 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.038 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,617 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,235
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 5/5 | $1,736 | $1,479 | 72% | 78% | +$74 | -$9,171 | 67.8% | $-9,835 (vs do-nothing $-6,600) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 5/5 | $1,682 | $1,425 | 72% | 78% | +$223 | -$7,791 | 57.6% | $-8,455 (vs do-nothing $-5,220) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 4/5 | $1,611 | $1,356 | 69% | 76% | +$64 | -$7,485 | 55.4% | $-8,663 (vs do-nothing $-5,428) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 4/5 | $1,586 | $1,330 | 69% | 76% | +$189 | -$6,521 | 48.2% | $-7,699 (vs do-nothing $-4,464) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 3/5 | $1,761 | $1,507 | 66% | 75% | +$415 | -$5,635 | 41.7% | $-7,327 (vs do-nothing $-4,092) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 5/5 | $1,929 | $1,671 | 65% | 75% | $-149 | -$8,676 | 64.2% | $-9,340 (vs do-nothing $-6,105) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 5/5 | $1,714 | $1,457 | 63% | 74% | $-131 | -$8,376 | 62.0% | $-9,040 (vs do-nothing $-5,805) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 3/5 | $1,607 | $1,353 | 61% | 74% | +$132 | -$5,296 | 39.2% | $-6,988 (vs do-nothing $-3,753) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 5/5 | $1,857 | $1,600 | 60% | 72% | $-255 | -$8,776 | 64.9% | $-9,440 (vs do-nothing $-6,205) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.44 | 3/5 | $1,851 | $1,597 | 60% | 72% | +$61 | -$5,914 | 43.7% | $-7,606 (vs do-nothing $-4,371) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 3/5 | $1,736 | $1,481 | 57% | 71% | $-0 | -$5,536 | 40.9% | $-7,228 (vs do-nothing $-3,993) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $1,743 | $1,487 | 57% | 70% | $-184 | -$7,241 | 53.6% | $-8,419 (vs do-nothing $-5,184) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 3/5 | $1,564 | $1,310 | 53% | 68% | $-76 | -$5,551 | 41.1% | $-7,243 (vs do-nothing $-4,008) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 3/5 | $1,877 | $1,623 | 53% | 68% | $-153 | -$5,770 | 42.7% | $-7,462 (vs do-nothing $-4,227) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 2/5 | $1,843 | $1,590 | 53% | 68% | +$283 | -$4,001 | 29.6% | $-6,207 (vs do-nothing $-2,972) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 3/5 | $1,629 | $1,374 | 50% | 67% | $-225 | -$5,806 | 42.9% | $-7,498 (vs do-nothing $-4,263) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/5 | $1,671 | $1,419 | 49% | 68% | +$100 | -$3,851 | 28.5% | $-6,057 (vs do-nothing $-2,822) |
| $93 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/5 | $1,886 | $1,631 | 46% | 65% | $-200 | -$5,926 | 43.8% | $-7,618 (vs do-nothing $-4,383) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.31 | 2/5 | $1,980 | $1,727 | 46% | 65% | $-19 | -$4,169 | 30.8% | $-6,375 (vs do-nothing $-3,140) |
| $93 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/5 | $1,800 | $1,547 | 45% | 66% | $-13 | -$3,991 | 29.5% | $-6,197 (vs do-nothing $-2,962) |
| $93 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 2/5 | $2,451 | $2,199 | 39% | 62% | $-61 | -$4,259 | 31.5% | $-6,465 (vs do-nothing $-3,230) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.