FORTRESS FIGHT: NEM @ $95.10

BE SS: $114.54  |  CC-SS: $117.42  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:25

NEM @ $95.10   UNDERWATER $19.44 (17.0% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $114.54  |  CC-SS: $117.42  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $87.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $45.141/sh)
SP: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $18.953/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.477/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$28,520(ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500
Normal income ref$3,021/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$216/mo
Unrealized P&L$-12,312fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,511/mo
HEDGE COVER
$216/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$3,021/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.5 mo to earn back $13,520
ML VELOCITY
9.4 mo to earn back $28,520
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $117.42 (probe: $119C 14d) brings only $129/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$408
Hole (after banked)
$11,905
was $12,312 · 3% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$118.66 → $117.42
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 15 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 35 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $108.28 (+14%) · daily UBB $107.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $99 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 73%, breach 27%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,511/mo); it brings $1,629/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $97/7d for $3,043/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $105/7d (94% survival, $257/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $8,828 (65% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 2.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-12,385 and cuts bleed by $216/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $99, 73% survival, $1,629/mo (E[net] $-137/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d5 × $9973%$1,629$-137

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $-137/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $99 (primary), 73% survival, breach 27%, $1,629/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $100 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 27% → 19%) for $429/mo less (26% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $100 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect NEM to stay flat-to-down near term.
NEM  spot $95.10 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge4 × $10517 Jul7d10.4%94%12%$60$257-$1,371$4,906
Sell 4 × $105 10.4% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid)
= $60 credit for the 7d cycle → $257/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $105)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $105.19)
94%
EV / mo
+$113
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.0 mo [1.3-3.7] median  ·  50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without)  ·  ~2.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-84
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$815
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$111 @ 76% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.73–$3.11)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10524 Jul 202610d left+$0.86/sh+$344
cycle +$404
[+$279…+$535] · 97% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$6,735 NOT
cap gain +$5,578
Max even-money escape in the band~$11131 Jul 202618d left+$0.58/sh+$232
cycle +$292
[+$147…+$420] · 93% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$3,764 NOT
cap gain +$8,548
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10924 Jul 202610d left+$0.32/sh+$127
cycle +$187
[+$62…+$255] · 88% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$4,914 NOT
cap gain +$7,399
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$257/mo
vs 50% target ($1,511/mo)-83%
vs normal income ($3,021/mo)9% covered
Net income (after hedge)$42/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $105 is $12 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,906
… as % of IC ($13,520)36.3%
… as % of ML ($28,520)17.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.6 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-9,864
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $105.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$104-105.19
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $105.19
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$105.00 (1.5σ)$60$-7,079+$5,234+$56
+2.5%$107.62 (1.8σ)$-990$-6,757+$5,555-$994
+5%$110.25 (2.2σ)$-2,040$-6,436+$5,877-$2,044
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-3,756$-6,164+$6,148-$2,744
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$4,906
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$541
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,099 (+$6,213 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,744, the opportunity cost of earning $257/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,252, position total $-6,677 (+$5,636 vs today)
🛡 safe yield5 × $10517 Jul7d10.4%94%12%$75$321-$1,307$6,133
Sell 5 × $105 10.4% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid)
= $75 credit for the 7d cycle → $321/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $105)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $105.19)
94%
EV / mo
+$141
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.2 mo [1.4-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.3 mo)  ·  50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without)  ·  ~2.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $104
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,018
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$111 @ 76% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.75–$3.19)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 354 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10524 Jul 202610d left+$0.86/sh+$430
cycle +$505
[+$344…+$673] · 96% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$6,635 NOT
cap gain +$5,678
Max even-money escape in the band~$11131 Jul 202618d left+$0.58/sh+$290
cycle +$365
[+$173…+$529] · 90% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$3,692 NOT
cap gain +$8,620
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10924 Jul 202610d left+$0.32/sh+$159
cycle +$234
[+$65…+$332] · 84% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$4,868 NOT
cap gain +$7,445
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$321/mo
vs 50% target ($1,511/mo)-79%
vs normal income ($3,021/mo)11% covered
Net income (after hedge)$105/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $105 is $12 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,133
… as % of IC ($13,520)45.4%
… as % of ML ($28,520)21.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,330
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $105.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$104-105.19
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $105.19
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$105.00 (1.5σ)$75$-7,065+$5,248+$70
+2.5%$107.62 (1.8σ)$-1,237$-7,006+$5,307-$1,242
+5%$110.25 (2.2σ)$-2,550$-6,947+$5,366-$2,555
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-4,695$-6,850+$5,462-$3,430
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$6,133
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,785 (+$5,527 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,430, the opportunity cost of earning $321/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,565, position total $-6,991 (+$5,322 vs today)
33% normal ← lean5 × $10017 Jul7d5.2%81%39%$280$1,200-$429$8,428
Sell 5 × $100 5.2% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.68 mid)
= $280 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,200/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $100)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $100.67)
84%
EV / mo
+$281
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.9 mo [1.8-5.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without)  ·  ~8.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,819
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
35%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$713
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$105 @ 78% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.11–$3.29)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,038 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10024 Jul 202610d left+$0.78/sh+$391
cycle +$671
[+$216…+$428] · 97% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$9,081 NOT
cap gain +$3,232
Max even-money escape in the band~$10631 Jul 202618d left+$0.36/sh+$181
cycle +$461
[-$35…+$205] · 67% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$6,208 NOT
cap gain +$6,104
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10424 Jul 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$84
cycle +$364
[-$74…+$97] · 49% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$7,350 NOT
cap gain +$4,962
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$10524 Jul 202610d left-$0.23/sh-$114
cycle +$166
[-$337…-$117] · 11% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$7,026 NOT
cap gain +$5,286
budget: banked $280 debit $114 (41% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$166 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,637/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,200/mo
vs 50% target ($1,511/mo)-21%
vs normal income ($3,021/mo)40% covered
Net income (after hedge)$984/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $100 is $17 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$8,428
… as % of IC ($13,520)62.3%
… as % of ML ($28,520)29.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,370
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $100.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$99-100.67
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $100.67
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$280$-9,472+$2,840+$275
+2.5%$102.50 (1.1σ)$-970$-9,416+$2,897-$975
+5%$105.00 (1.5σ)$-2,220$-9,360+$2,953-$2,225
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-6,990$-9,145+$3,167-$5,725
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,428
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,080 (+$3,232 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,725, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,860, position total $-9,286 (+$3,027 vs today)
🎯 50% normal5 × $9917 Jul7d4.1%73%42%$380$1,629$8,828
Sell 5 × $99 4.1% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.91 mid)
= $380 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,629/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $99)
73%
Breach risk
27%
POP (stays ≤ $99.91)
77%
EV / mo
$-293
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo)  ·  59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without)  ·  ~11.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,366
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
42%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$594
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$104 @ 78% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.75/sh now → $1.95 mid-life (likely $2.16–$3.27)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,269 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $101 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9924 Jul 202610d left+$0.77/sh+$384
cycle +$764
[+$198…+$408] · 96% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$9,511 NOT
cap gain +$2,802
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10431 Jul 202618d left+$0.68/sh+$340
cycle +$720
[+$146…+$358] · 94% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$6,995 NOT
cap gain +$5,318
Max even-money escape in the band~$10531 Jul 202618d left+$0.32/sh+$161
cycle +$541
[-$71…+$159] · 55% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$6,651 NOT
cap gain +$5,661
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10324 Jul 202610d left+$0.14/sh+$70
cycle +$450
[-$95…+$62] · 38% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$7,787 NOT
cap gain +$4,525
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$10424 Jul 202610d left-$0.25/sh-$125
cycle +$255
[-$353…-$157] · 9% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$7,460 NOT
cap gain +$4,853
budget: banked $380 debit $125 (33% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$255 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,545/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,629/mo
vs 50% target ($1,511/mo)+8%
vs normal income ($3,021/mo)54% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,412/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $99 is $18 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$8,828
… as % of IC ($13,520)65.3%
… as % of ML ($28,520)31.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,385
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $99.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$98-99.91
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $99.91
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$99.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$380$-9,895+$2,418+$375
+2.5%$101.47 (≤1σ, normal week)$-857$-9,839+$2,473-$862
+5%$103.95 (1.3σ)$-2,095$-9,783+$2,529-$2,100
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-7,390$-9,545+$2,767-$6,125
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $99): -$8,828
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,480 (+$2,832 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,125, the opportunity cost of earning $1,629/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,260, position total $-9,686 (+$2,627 vs today)
100% normal5 × $9717 Jul7d2.0%62%77%$710$3,043+$1,414$9,498
Sell 5 × $97 2.0% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.55 mid)
= $710 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,043/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $97)
62%
Breach risk
38%
POP (stays ≤ $98.56)
70%
EV / mo
$-168
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.4] median  ·  63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~18.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,208
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
61%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$225
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$112 @ 90% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.65/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $2.43–$3.61)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,829 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $99 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9724 Jul 202610d left+$0.74/sh+$369
cycle +$1,079
[+$127…+$295] · 92% credit
63%
surv 52%
-$10,241 NOT
cap gain +$2,072
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10231 Jul 202618d left+$0.59/sh+$295
cycle +$1,005
[+$39…+$207] · 82% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$7,755 NOT
cap gain +$4,558
Max even-money escape in the band~$10331 Jul 202618d left+$0.24/sh+$121
cycle +$831
[-$191…+$15] · 29% credit
77%
surv 72%
-$7,406 NOT
cap gain +$4,906
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10124 Jul 202610d left+$0.08/sh+$42
cycle +$752
[-$178…-$34] · 18% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$8,530 NOT
cap gain +$3,782
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11231 Jul 202618d left-$1.25/sh-$623
cycle +$87
[-$1,227…-$826]
90%
surv 90%
-$3,448 NOT
cap gain +$8,865
budget: banked $710 debit $623 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $520/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,043/mo
vs 50% target ($1,511/mo)+101%
vs normal income ($3,021/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,826/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $97 is $20 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$9,498
… as % of IC ($13,520)70.2%
… as % of ML ($28,520)33.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,380
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $98.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.03Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$96-98.56
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $98.56
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$97.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$710$-10,610+$1,703+$705
+2.5%$99.42 (≤1σ, normal week)$-502$-10,555+$1,757-$507
+5%$101.85 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,715$-10,501+$1,812-$1,720
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-8,060$-10,215+$2,097-$6,795
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97): -$9,498
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,150 (+$2,162 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,795, the opportunity cost of earning $3,043/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,930, position total $-10,356 (+$1,957 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NEM are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (21 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.045 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$11,660 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,355

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$997d17 Jul 2026$0.765/5$1,629$1,41273%77%$-293-$8,82865.3%$-9,480 (vs do-nothing $-6,125)
$10121d31 Jul 2026$2.325/5$1,657$1,44171%78%+$387-$7,04852.1%$-7,700 (vs do-nothing $-4,345)
$10014d24 Jul 2026$1.914/5$1,637$1,42271%77%+$379-$6,20245.9%$-7,395 (vs do-nothing $-4,040)
$10021d31 Jul 2026$2.684/5$1,531$1,31668%76%+$358-$5,89443.6%$-7,087 (vs do-nothing $-3,732)
$987d17 Jul 2026$1.034/5$1,766$1,55168%73%$-237-$7,35454.4%$-8,547 (vs do-nothing $-5,192)
$9914d24 Jul 2026$2.324/5$1,989$1,77467%76%+$486-$6,43847.6%$-7,631 (vs do-nothing $-4,276)
$97.507d17 Jul 2026$1.213/5$1,556$1,34265%72%$-149-$5,61241.5%$-7,345 (vs do-nothing $-3,990)
$9814d24 Jul 2026$1.804/5$1,543$1,32864%74%$-241-$7,04652.1%$-8,239 (vs do-nothing $-4,884)
$977d17 Jul 2026$1.423/5$1,826$1,61262%70%$-101-$5,69942.1%$-7,432 (vs do-nothing $-4,077)
$9821d31 Jul 2026$2.405/5$1,714$1,49862%73%$-223-$8,50862.9%$-9,160 (vs do-nothing $-5,805)
$9714d24 Jul 2026$2.503/5$1,607$1,39460%72%+$28-$5,37539.8%$-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-3,753)
$9721d31 Jul 2026$3.304/5$1,886$1,67159%70%+$114-$6,84650.6%$-8,039 (vs do-nothing $-4,684)
$967d17 Jul 2026$1.703/5$2,186$1,97257%67%$-246-$5,91543.7%$-7,648 (vs do-nothing $-4,293)
Show 8 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$9614d24 Jul 2026$2.703/5$1,736$1,52256%70%$-116-$5,61541.5%$-7,348 (vs do-nothing $-3,993)
$9621d31 Jul 2026$3.154/5$1,800$1,58555%70%$-216-$7,30654.0%$-8,499 (vs do-nothing $-5,144)
$9521d31 Jul 2026$4.753/5$2,036$1,82252%68%+$323-$5,30039.2%$-7,033 (vs do-nothing $-3,678)
$9514d24 Jul 2026$2.923/5$1,877$1,66452%67%$-280-$5,84943.3%$-7,582 (vs do-nothing $-4,227)
$957d17 Jul 2026$2.332/5$1,997$1,78551%65%$-19-$4,01729.7%$-6,291 (vs do-nothing $-2,936)
$9421d31 Jul 2026$4.903/5$2,100$1,88649%67%+$167-$5,55541.1%$-7,288 (vs do-nothing $-3,933)
$9414d24 Jul 2026$4.602/5$1,971$1,75948%66%+$308-$3,76327.8%$-6,037 (vs do-nothing $-2,682)
$947d17 Jul 2026$2.862/5$2,451$2,23945%62%$-18-$4,11130.4%$-6,385 (vs do-nothing $-3,030)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:25