5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $117.42 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,021/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $216/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-12,312 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $99 | 73% | $1,629 | $-137 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.4% | 94% | 12% | $60 | $257 | -$1,371 | $4,906 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 10.4% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $60 credit for the 7d cycle → $257/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $105.19) 94% EV / mo +$113 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.3-3.7] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-84 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$815 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $111 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.73–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $12 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $105.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$4,906 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$541 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,099 (+$6,213 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,744, the opportunity cost of earning $257/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,252, position total $-6,677 (+$5,636 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.4% | 94% | 12% | $75 | $321 | -$1,307 | $6,133 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 10.4% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $75 credit for the 7d cycle → $321/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $105.19) 94% EV / mo +$141 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.4-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.3 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $104 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,018 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $111 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.75–$3.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 354 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $12 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $105.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$6,133 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,785 (+$5,527 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,430, the opportunity cost of earning $321/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,565, position total $-6,991 (+$5,322 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $100 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.2% | 81% | 39% | $280 | $1,200 | -$429 | $8,428 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 5.2% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.68 mid) = $280 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $100.67) 84% EV / mo +$281 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.8-5.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,819 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$713 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $105 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.11–$3.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,038 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $17 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $100.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,428 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,080 (+$3,232 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,725, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,860, position total $-9,286 (+$3,027 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $99 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.1% | 73% | 42% | $380 | $1,629 | — | $8,828 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $99 4.1% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.91 mid) = $380 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,629/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $99.91) 77% EV / mo $-293 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~11.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,366 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$594 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $104 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.75/sh now → $1.95 mid-life (likely $2.16–$3.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,269 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $101 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $18 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $99.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $99): -$8,828 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,480 (+$2,832 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,125, the opportunity cost of earning $1,629/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,260, position total $-9,686 (+$2,627 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $97 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 62% | 77% | $710 | $3,043 | +$1,414 | $9,498 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $97 2.0% OTM over spot $95.10 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.55 mid) = $710 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,043/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $98.56) 70% EV / mo $-168 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.4] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~18.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,208 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$225 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $112 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.65/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $2.43–$3.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,829 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $99 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $20 below CC-SS $117.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $98.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,660 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97): -$9,498 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,150 (+$2,162 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,355 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,795, the opportunity cost of earning $3,043/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,930, position total $-10,356 (+$1,957 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.045 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,660 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,355
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 5/5 | $1,629 | $1,412 | 73% | 77% | $-293 | -$8,828 | 65.3% | $-9,480 (vs do-nothing $-6,125) |
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 5/5 | $1,657 | $1,441 | 71% | 78% | +$387 | -$7,048 | 52.1% | $-7,700 (vs do-nothing $-4,345) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 4/5 | $1,637 | $1,422 | 71% | 77% | +$379 | -$6,202 | 45.9% | $-7,395 (vs do-nothing $-4,040) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.68 | 4/5 | $1,531 | $1,316 | 68% | 76% | +$358 | -$5,894 | 43.6% | $-7,087 (vs do-nothing $-3,732) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 4/5 | $1,766 | $1,551 | 68% | 73% | $-237 | -$7,354 | 54.4% | $-8,547 (vs do-nothing $-5,192) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 4/5 | $1,989 | $1,774 | 67% | 76% | +$486 | -$6,438 | 47.6% | $-7,631 (vs do-nothing $-4,276) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | 3/5 | $1,556 | $1,342 | 65% | 72% | $-149 | -$5,612 | 41.5% | $-7,345 (vs do-nothing $-3,990) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 4/5 | $1,543 | $1,328 | 64% | 74% | $-241 | -$7,046 | 52.1% | $-8,239 (vs do-nothing $-4,884) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.42 | 3/5 | $1,826 | $1,612 | 62% | 70% | $-101 | -$5,699 | 42.1% | $-7,432 (vs do-nothing $-4,077) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 5/5 | $1,714 | $1,498 | 62% | 73% | $-223 | -$8,508 | 62.9% | $-9,160 (vs do-nothing $-5,805) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 3/5 | $1,607 | $1,394 | 60% | 72% | +$28 | -$5,375 | 39.8% | $-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-3,753) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $1,886 | $1,671 | 59% | 70% | +$114 | -$6,846 | 50.6% | $-8,039 (vs do-nothing $-4,684) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 3/5 | $2,186 | $1,972 | 57% | 67% | $-246 | -$5,915 | 43.7% | $-7,648 (vs do-nothing $-4,293) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 3/5 | $1,736 | $1,522 | 56% | 70% | $-116 | -$5,615 | 41.5% | $-7,348 (vs do-nothing $-3,993) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 4/5 | $1,800 | $1,585 | 55% | 70% | $-216 | -$7,306 | 54.0% | $-8,499 (vs do-nothing $-5,144) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 3/5 | $2,036 | $1,822 | 52% | 68% | +$323 | -$5,300 | 39.2% | $-7,033 (vs do-nothing $-3,678) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 3/5 | $1,877 | $1,664 | 52% | 67% | $-280 | -$5,849 | 43.3% | $-7,582 (vs do-nothing $-4,227) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 2/5 | $1,997 | $1,785 | 51% | 65% | $-19 | -$4,017 | 29.7% | $-6,291 (vs do-nothing $-2,936) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 3/5 | $2,100 | $1,886 | 49% | 67% | +$167 | -$5,555 | 41.1% | $-7,288 (vs do-nothing $-3,933) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 2/5 | $1,971 | $1,759 | 48% | 66% | +$308 | -$3,763 | 27.8% | $-6,037 (vs do-nothing $-2,682) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 2/5 | $2,451 | $2,239 | 45% | 62% | $-18 | -$4,111 | 30.4% | $-6,385 (vs do-nothing $-3,030) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.