FORTRESS FIGHT: NEM @ $95.45

BE SS: $114.54  |  CC-SS: $117.71  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:35

NEM @ $95.45   UNDERWATER $19.09 (16.7% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $114.54  |  CC-SS: $117.71  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $87.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $45.141/sh)
SP: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $18.953/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.477/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$28,520(ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500
Normal income ref$2,834/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$210/mo
Unrealized P&L$-12,290fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,417/mo
HEDGE COVER
$210/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$2,834/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.8 mo to earn back $13,520
ML VELOCITY
10.1 mo to earn back $28,520
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $117.71 (probe: $119C 14d) brings only $129/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$408
Hole (after banked)
$11,882
was $12,290 · 3% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$118.93 → $117.71
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 36 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $108.28 (+13%) · daily UBB $107.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 4 contracts at $99 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 71%, breach 29%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,417/mo); it brings $1,526/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $97.50/7d for $2,893/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+6pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $105/7d (93% survival, $223/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $7,126 (53% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 2.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 4 contracts realizes $-9,880 and cuts bleed by $168/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 4 × $99, 71% survival, $1,526/mo (E[net] $205/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d4 × $9971%$1,526$205

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $205/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 4 × $99 (primary), 71% survival, breach 29%, $1,526/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $100 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 79% (breach 29% → 21%) for $446/mo less (29% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
NEM  spot $95.45 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge4 × $10517 Jul7d10.0%93%13%$52$223-$1,303$5,030
Sell 4 × $105 10.0% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid)
= $52 credit for the 7d cycle → $223/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $105)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $105.18)
94%
EV / mo
+$65
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-4.0] median  ·  51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without)  ·  ~2.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-230
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
7%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$825
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$111 @ 75% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.84)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 215 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $106 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10524 Jul 202610d left+$0.85/sh+$341
cycle +$393
[+$271…+$531] · 95% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$6,899 NOT
cap gain +$5,391
Max even-money escape in the band~$11131 Jul 202618d left+$0.73/sh+$291
cycle +$343
[+$209…+$486] · 92% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$4,047 NOT
cap gain +$8,243
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10924 Jul 202610d left+$0.37/sh+$150
cycle +$202
[+$73…+$294] · 87% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$5,234 NOT
cap gain +$7,056
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$223/mo
vs 50% target ($1,417/mo)-84%
vs normal income ($2,834/mo)8% covered
Net income (after hedge)$14/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $105 is $13 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,030
… as % of IC ($13,520)37.2%
… as % of ML ($28,520)17.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.8 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-9,852
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $105.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$104-105.18
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $105.18
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$105.00 (1.4σ)$52$-7,240+$5,050+$48
+2.5%$107.62 (1.8σ)$-998$-6,916+$5,374-$1,002
+5%$110.25 (2.2σ)$-2,048$-6,592+$5,698-$2,052
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.8σ)$-3,764$-6,316+$5,974-$2,752
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$5,030
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$570
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,242 (+$6,048 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,752, the opportunity cost of earning $223/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,260, position total $-6,835 (+$5,455 vs today)
🛡 safe yield5 × $10517 Jul7d10.0%93%13%$65$279-$1,247$6,288
Sell 5 × $105 10.0% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid)
= $65 credit for the 7d cycle → $279/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $105)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $105.18)
94%
EV / mo
+$82
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.2 mo [1.3-5.2] median  ·  51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without)  ·  ~2.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-15
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
8%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,031
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$111 @ 75% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.55–$3.09)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 225 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $106 (overshoots $1.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10524 Jul 202610d left+$0.85/sh+$426
cycle +$491
[+$290…+$688] · 96% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$6,802 NOT
cap gain +$5,488
Max even-money escape in the band~$11131 Jul 202618d left+$0.73/sh+$363
cycle +$428
[+$211…+$636] · 92% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$3,962 NOT
cap gain +$8,328
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10924 Jul 202610d left+$0.37/sh+$187
cycle +$252
[+$33…+$382] · 80% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$5,185 NOT
cap gain +$7,105
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$279/mo
vs 50% target ($1,417/mo)-80%
vs normal income ($2,834/mo)10% covered
Net income (after hedge)$69/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $105 is $13 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,288
… as % of IC ($13,520)46.5%
… as % of ML ($28,520)22.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,315
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $105.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$104-105.18
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $105.18
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$105.00 (1.4σ)$65$-7,228+$5,062+$60
+2.5%$107.62 (1.8σ)$-1,247$-7,167+$5,123-$1,252
+5%$110.25 (2.2σ)$-2,560$-7,105+$5,185-$2,565
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.8σ)$-4,705$-7,004+$5,286-$3,440
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$6,288
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,930 (+$5,360 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,440, the opportunity cost of earning $279/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,575, position total $-7,151 (+$5,139 vs today)
33% normal4 × $10017 Jul7d4.8%79%43%$252$1,080-$446$6,830
Sell 4 × $100 4.8% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.73 mid)
= $252 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,080/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $100)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $100.73)
82%
EV / mo
+$236
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-5.0] median  ·  50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without)  ·  ~8.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,405
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
31%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$538
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$106 @ 76% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.79/sh now → $1.97 mid-life (likely $2.04–$3.19)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 940 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $101 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10024 Jul 202610d left+$0.79/sh+$317
cycle +$569
[+$142…+$343] · 90% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$9,340 NOT
cap gain +$2,950
Max even-money escape in the band~$10631 Jul 202618d left+$0.52/sh+$209
cycle +$461
[+$6…+$229] · 76% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$6,546 NOT
cap gain +$5,744
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10424 Jul 202610d left+$0.25/sh+$98
cycle +$350
[-$73…+$99] · 55% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$7,704 NOT
cap gain +$4,586
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,080/mo
vs 50% target ($1,417/mo)-24%
vs normal income ($2,834/mo)38% covered
Net income (after hedge)$871/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,830
… as % of IC ($13,520)50.5%
… as % of ML ($28,520)23.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.4 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-9,872
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $100.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$99-100.73
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $100.73
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$252$-9,658+$2,632+$248
+2.5%$102.50 (1.0σ)$-748$-9,349+$2,941-$752
+5%$105.00 (1.4σ)$-1,748$-9,040+$3,250-$1,752
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.8σ)$-5,564$-8,116+$4,174-$4,552
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$6,830
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$570
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,042 (+$4,248 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,552, the opportunity cost of earning $1,080/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,060, position total $-8,635 (+$3,655 vs today)
🎯 50% normal4 × $9917 Jul7d3.7%71%40%$356$1,526$7,126
Sell 4 × $99 3.7% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.01 mid)
= $356 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,526/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $99)
71%
Breach risk
29%
POP (stays ≤ $100.01)
75%
EV / mo
$-204
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.4] median  ·  61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without)  ·  ~12.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,204
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
40%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$417
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$106 @ 81% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.73/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $2.15–$3.28)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,196 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $100 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9924 Jul 202610d left+$0.78/sh+$313
cycle +$669
[+$116…+$306] · 91% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$9,764 NOT
cap gain +$2,526
Max even-money escape in the band~$10531 Jul 202618d left+$0.48/sh+$193
cycle +$549
[-$32…+$176] · 70% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$6,981 NOT
cap gain +$5,309
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10324 Jul 202610d left+$0.22/sh+$88
cycle +$444
[-$98…+$63] · 45% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$8,133 NOT
cap gain +$4,157
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$10624 Jul 202610d left-$0.73/sh-$290
cycle +$66
[-$586…-$343] · 0% credit
81%
surv 78%
-$6,941 NOT
cap gain +$5,349
budget: banked $356 debit $290 (82% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,447/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,526/mo
vs 50% target ($1,417/mo)+8%
vs normal income ($2,834/mo)54% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,317/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $99 is $19 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,126
… as % of IC ($13,520)52.7%
… as % of ML ($28,520)25.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.5 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-9,880
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $100.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$98-100.01
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $100.01
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$99.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$356$-10,077+$2,213+$352
+2.5%$101.47 (≤1σ, normal week)$-634$-9,772+$2,518-$638
+5%$103.95 (1.2σ)$-1,624$-9,466+$2,824-$1,628
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.8σ)$-5,860$-8,412+$3,878-$4,848
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$7,126
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$570
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,338 (+$3,952 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,848, the opportunity cost of earning $1,526/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,356, position total $-8,931 (+$3,359 vs today)
100% normal5 × $97.5017 Jul7d2.1%65%71%$675$2,893+$1,367$9,428
Sell 5 × $97.50 2.1% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.49 mid)
= $675 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,893/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $97.50)
65%
Breach risk
35%
POP (stays ≤ $98.99)
74%
EV / mo
+$556
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-5.2] median  ·  57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without)  ·  ~17.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,403
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
57%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$260
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$112 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $2.30–$3.33)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,698 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $99 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9824 Jul 202610d left+$0.76/sh+$382
cycle +$1,057
[+$105…+$309] · 88% credit
63%
surv 52%
-$10,162 NOT
cap gain +$2,128
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10231 Jul 202618d left+$0.75/sh+$374
cycle +$1,049
[+$90…+$295] · 87% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$7,791 NOT
cap gain +$4,499
Max even-money escape in the band~$10331 Jul 202618d left+$0.43/sh+$213
cycle +$888
[-$102…+$119] · 55% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$7,429 NOT
cap gain +$4,861
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10124 Jul 202610d left+$0.18/sh+$92
cycle +$767
[-$163…+$15] · 29% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$8,596 NOT
cap gain +$3,694
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11231 Jul 202618d left-$1.24/sh-$619
cycle +$56
[-$1,165…-$783]
90%
surv 89%
-$3,549 NOT
cap gain +$8,741
budget: banked $675 debit $619 (92% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $527/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,893/mo
vs 50% target ($1,417/mo)+104%
vs normal income ($2,834/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,683/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $97.50 is $20 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$9,428
… as % of IC ($13,520)69.7%
… as % of ML ($28,520)33.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,360
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $98.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.53Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$97-98.99
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $98.99
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$97.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$675$-10,544+$1,746+$670
+2.5%$99.94 (≤1σ, normal week)$-544$-10,487+$1,803-$549
+5%$102.38 (1.0σ)$-1,762$-10,430+$1,860-$1,768
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.8σ)$-7,845$-10,144+$2,146-$6,580
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97.50): -$9,428
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,070 (+$2,220 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,580, the opportunity cost of earning $2,893/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,715, position total $-10,291 (+$1,999 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NEM are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (23 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.047 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$11,648 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,490

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10214d24 Jul 2026$1.415/5$1,511$1,30176%80%+$341-$7,14852.9%$-7,790 (vs do-nothing $-4,300)
$997d17 Jul 2026$0.894/5$1,526$1,31771%75%$-204-$7,12652.7%$-8,338 (vs do-nothing $-4,848)
$10121d31 Jul 2026$2.504/5$1,429$1,22070%77%+$313-$5,68242.0%$-6,894 (vs do-nothing $-3,404)
$10014d24 Jul 2026$2.014/5$1,723$1,51469%76%+$373-$6,27846.4%$-7,490 (vs do-nothing $-4,000)
$987d17 Jul 2026$1.173/5$1,504$1,29768%75%+$299-$5,56141.1%$-7,342 (vs do-nothing $-3,852)
$10021d31 Jul 2026$2.834/5$1,617$1,40967%75%+$333-$5,95044.0%$-7,162 (vs do-nothing $-3,672)
$9914d24 Jul 2026$2.413/5$1,549$1,34266%75%+$343-$4,88936.2%$-6,670 (vs do-nothing $-3,180)
$97.507d17 Jul 2026$1.353/5$1,736$1,52965%74%+$334-$5,65741.8%$-7,438 (vs do-nothing $-3,948)
$9921d31 Jul 2026$2.055/5$1,464$1,25464%73%$-376-$8,32861.6%$-8,970 (vs do-nothing $-5,480)
$9814d24 Jul 2026$2.773/5$1,781$1,57462%74%+$352-$5,08137.6%$-6,862 (vs do-nothing $-3,372)
$9821d31 Jul 2026$2.405/5$1,714$1,50461%71%$-385-$8,65364.0%$-9,295 (vs do-nothing $-5,805)
$977d17 Jul 2026$1.573/5$2,019$1,81160%69%$-110-$5,74142.5%$-7,522 (vs do-nothing $-4,032)
$9714d24 Jul 2026$2.503/5$1,607$1,40058%71%$-75-$5,46240.4%$-7,243 (vs do-nothing $-3,753)
Show 10 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$9721d31 Jul 2026$3.953/5$1,693$1,48658%70%+$262-$5,02737.2%$-6,808 (vs do-nothing $-3,318)
$967d17 Jul 2026$1.702/5$1,457$1,25155%68%+$25-$4,00129.6%$-6,352 (vs do-nothing $-2,862)
$9621d31 Jul 2026$3.154/5$1,800$1,59154%68%$-359-$7,42254.9%$-8,634 (vs do-nothing $-5,144)
$9614d24 Jul 2026$2.703/5$1,736$1,52954%68%$-231-$5,70242.2%$-7,483 (vs do-nothing $-3,993)
$9521d31 Jul 2026$4.953/5$2,121$1,91451%67%+$298-$5,32739.4%$-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-3,618)
$9514d24 Jul 2026$3.103/5$1,993$1,78650%66%$-291-$5,88243.5%$-7,663 (vs do-nothing $-4,173)
$957d17 Jul 2026$2.552/5$2,186$1,98048%66%+$331-$4,03129.8%$-6,382 (vs do-nothing $-2,892)
$9421d31 Jul 2026$5.052/5$1,443$1,23748%66%+$80-$3,73127.6%$-6,082 (vs do-nothing $-2,592)
$9414d24 Jul 2026$4.752/5$2,036$1,83046%65%+$280-$3,79128.0%$-6,142 (vs do-nothing $-2,652)
$947d17 Jul 2026$3.102/5$2,657$2,45141%63%+$306-$4,12130.5%$-6,472 (vs do-nothing $-2,982)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:35