5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $117.71 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $2,834/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $210/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-12,290 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $99 | 71% | $1,526 | $205 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.0% | 93% | 13% | $52 | $223 | -$1,303 | $5,030 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 10.0% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $52 credit for the 7d cycle → $223/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $105.18) 94% EV / mo +$65 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-4.0] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-230 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$825 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $111 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 215 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $106 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $13 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $105.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$5,030 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$570 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,242 (+$6,048 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,752, the opportunity cost of earning $223/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,260, position total $-6,835 (+$5,455 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.0% | 93% | 13% | $65 | $279 | -$1,247 | $6,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 10.0% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $65 credit for the 7d cycle → $279/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $105.18) 94% EV / mo +$82 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.3-5.2] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-15 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,031 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $111 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.55–$3.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 225 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $106 (overshoots $1.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $13 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $105.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$6,288 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,930 (+$5,360 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,440, the opportunity cost of earning $279/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,575, position total $-7,151 (+$5,139 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $100 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.8% | 79% | 43% | $252 | $1,080 | -$446 | $6,830 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $100 4.8% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.73 mid) = $252 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $100.73) 82% EV / mo +$236 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-5.0] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,405 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$538 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $106 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.79/sh now → $1.97 mid-life (likely $2.04–$3.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 940 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $101 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $100.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$6,830 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$570 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,042 (+$4,248 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,552, the opportunity cost of earning $1,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,060, position total $-8,635 (+$3,655 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $99 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.7% | 71% | 40% | $356 | $1,526 | — | $7,126 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 3.7% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.01 mid) = $356 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,526/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $100.01) 75% EV / mo $-204 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.4] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~12.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,204 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$417 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $106 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.73/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $2.15–$3.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,196 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $100 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $19 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $100.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$7,126 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$570 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,338 (+$3,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,848, the opportunity cost of earning $1,526/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,356, position total $-8,931 (+$3,359 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $97.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.1% | 65% | 71% | $675 | $2,893 | +$1,367 | $9,428 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $97.50 2.1% OTM over spot $95.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.49 mid) = $675 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,893/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $98.99) 74% EV / mo +$556 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-5.2] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~17.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,403 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$260 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $112 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $2.30–$3.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,698 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $99 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97.50 is $20 below CC-SS $117.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $98.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,648 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97.50): -$9,428 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,070 (+$2,220 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,580, the opportunity cost of earning $2,893/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $108.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,715, position total $-10,291 (+$1,999 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.047 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,648 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,490
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 5/5 | $1,511 | $1,301 | 76% | 80% | +$341 | -$7,148 | 52.9% | $-7,790 (vs do-nothing $-4,300) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 4/5 | $1,526 | $1,317 | 71% | 75% | $-204 | -$7,126 | 52.7% | $-8,338 (vs do-nothing $-4,848) |
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 4/5 | $1,429 | $1,220 | 70% | 77% | +$313 | -$5,682 | 42.0% | $-6,894 (vs do-nothing $-3,404) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 4/5 | $1,723 | $1,514 | 69% | 76% | +$373 | -$6,278 | 46.4% | $-7,490 (vs do-nothing $-4,000) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 3/5 | $1,504 | $1,297 | 68% | 75% | +$299 | -$5,561 | 41.1% | $-7,342 (vs do-nothing $-3,852) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 4/5 | $1,617 | $1,409 | 67% | 75% | +$333 | -$5,950 | 44.0% | $-7,162 (vs do-nothing $-3,672) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.41 | 3/5 | $1,549 | $1,342 | 66% | 75% | +$343 | -$4,889 | 36.2% | $-6,670 (vs do-nothing $-3,180) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 3/5 | $1,736 | $1,529 | 65% | 74% | +$334 | -$5,657 | 41.8% | $-7,438 (vs do-nothing $-3,948) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 5/5 | $1,464 | $1,254 | 64% | 73% | $-376 | -$8,328 | 61.6% | $-8,970 (vs do-nothing $-5,480) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 3/5 | $1,781 | $1,574 | 62% | 74% | +$352 | -$5,081 | 37.6% | $-6,862 (vs do-nothing $-3,372) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 5/5 | $1,714 | $1,504 | 61% | 71% | $-385 | -$8,653 | 64.0% | $-9,295 (vs do-nothing $-5,805) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 3/5 | $2,019 | $1,811 | 60% | 69% | $-110 | -$5,741 | 42.5% | $-7,522 (vs do-nothing $-4,032) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 3/5 | $1,607 | $1,400 | 58% | 71% | $-75 | -$5,462 | 40.4% | $-7,243 (vs do-nothing $-3,753) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 3/5 | $1,693 | $1,486 | 58% | 70% | +$262 | -$5,027 | 37.2% | $-6,808 (vs do-nothing $-3,318) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 2/5 | $1,457 | $1,251 | 55% | 68% | +$25 | -$4,001 | 29.6% | $-6,352 (vs do-nothing $-2,862) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 4/5 | $1,800 | $1,591 | 54% | 68% | $-359 | -$7,422 | 54.9% | $-8,634 (vs do-nothing $-5,144) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 3/5 | $1,736 | $1,529 | 54% | 68% | $-231 | -$5,702 | 42.2% | $-7,483 (vs do-nothing $-3,993) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 3/5 | $2,121 | $1,914 | 51% | 67% | +$298 | -$5,327 | 39.4% | $-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-3,618) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 3/5 | $1,993 | $1,786 | 50% | 66% | $-291 | -$5,882 | 43.5% | $-7,663 (vs do-nothing $-4,173) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 2/5 | $2,186 | $1,980 | 48% | 66% | +$331 | -$4,031 | 29.8% | $-6,382 (vs do-nothing $-2,892) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 2/5 | $1,443 | $1,237 | 48% | 66% | +$80 | -$3,731 | 27.6% | $-6,082 (vs do-nothing $-2,592) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 2/5 | $2,036 | $1,830 | 46% | 65% | +$280 | -$3,791 | 28.0% | $-6,142 (vs do-nothing $-2,652) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 2/5 | $2,657 | $2,451 | 41% | 63% | +$306 | -$4,121 | 30.5% | $-6,472 (vs do-nothing $-2,982) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.