5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $118.56 (banked floor $117.82) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,950/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $199/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-12,368 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.66 | $331 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $102 | 79% | $2,175 | $217 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $111 | 24 Jul | 8d | 16.2% | 98% | 5% | $60 | $225 | -$1,950 | $2,966 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 16.2% OTM over spot $95.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.34 mid) = $60 credit for the 8d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $111.33) 98% EV / mo +$185 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.7] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $26 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,447 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $113 @ 71% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $2.82–$5.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 131 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $113 (overshoots $2.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $8 below CC-SS $118.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $111.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,368 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,180 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$2,966 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $115): -$345 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,498 (+$8,870 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,914 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,584, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.61 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,506 (+$5,862 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $107 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.0% | 91% | 18% | $215 | $806 | -$1,369 | $5,567 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $107 12.0% OTM over spot $95.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.45 mid) = $215 credit for the 8d cycle → $806/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $108.45) 93% EV / mo +$439 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,590 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,542 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $109 @ 72% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.97/sh now → $3.51 mid-life (likely $2.81–$5.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 316 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $109 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $12 below CC-SS $118.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $108.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,368 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,180 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $107): -$5,567 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,754 (+$6,614 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,914 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,840, the opportunity cost of earning $806/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.61 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,517 (+$5,851 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $104 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.8% | 87% | 26% | $385 | $1,444 | -$731 | $6,897 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $104 8.8% OTM over spot $95.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.88 mid) = $385 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,444/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $104.88) 89% EV / mo +$865 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.0-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,324 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,280 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $107 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.71/sh now → $3.33 mid-life (likely $3.12–$4.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 644 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $106 (overshoots $1.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $15 below CC-SS $118.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $104.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,368 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,180 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$6,897 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,084 (+$5,284 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,914 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,170, the opportunity cost of earning $1,444/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.61 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$920, position total $-7,437 (+$4,931 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $102 | 24 Jul | 8d | 6.7% | 79% | 33% | $580 | $2,175 | — | $7,702 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $102 6.7% OTM over spot $95.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.26 mid) = $580 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $103.26) 83% EV / mo +$888 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,127 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,025 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $106 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.54/sh now → $3.21 mid-life (likely $3.23–$4.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 976 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $104 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $17 below CC-SS $118.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $103.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,368 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,180 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$7,702 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,889 (+$4,479 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,914 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,975, the opportunity cost of earning $2,175/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.61 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,725, position total $-8,242 (+$4,126 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $98 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.6% | 63% | 75% | $1,145 | $4,294 | +$2,119 | $9,137 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $98 2.6% OTM over spot $95.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.41 mid) = $1,145 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,294/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $100.41) 74% EV / mo +$1,140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~14.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,025 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$343 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $107 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.21/sh now → $2.98 mid-life (likely $3.78–$5.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,777 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $100 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $21 below CC-SS $118.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.29 collected) or spot ≥ $100.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,368 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,180 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$9,137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,324 (+$3,044 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,914 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,410, the opportunity cost of earning $4,294/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.61 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,160, position total $-9,677 (+$2,691 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.059 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,180 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,914
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 5/5 | $2,175 | $1,976 | 79% | 83% | +$888 | -$7,702 | 57.0% | $-7,889 (vs do-nothing $-5,975) |
| $101 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 4/5 | $2,055 | $1,878 | 76% | 81% | +$751 | -$6,478 | 47.9% | $-7,010 (vs do-nothing $-5,096) |
| $100 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 4/5 | $2,400 | $2,223 | 72% | 79% | +$762 | -$6,786 | 50.2% | $-7,318 (vs do-nothing $-5,404) |
| $101 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 5/5 | $2,020 | $1,821 | 72% | 78% | +$573 | -$7,772 | 57.5% | $-7,959 (vs do-nothing $-6,045) |
| $99 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 3/5 | $2,194 | $2,039 | 69% | 78% | +$848 | -$5,284 | 39.1% | $-6,162 (vs do-nothing $-4,248) |
| $100 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.36 | 5/5 | $2,360 | $2,161 | 69% | 76% | +$643 | -$8,102 | 59.9% | $-8,289 (vs do-nothing $-6,375) |
| $99 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 4/5 | $2,176 | $1,999 | 65% | 74% | +$555 | -$6,738 | 49.8% | $-7,270 (vs do-nothing $-5,356) |
| $98 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.29 | 3/5 | $2,576 | $2,421 | 63% | 74% | +$684 | -$5,482 | 40.5% | $-6,360 (vs do-nothing $-4,446) |
| $98 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $2,440 | $2,263 | 61% | 72% | +$537 | -$7,006 | 51.8% | $-7,538 (vs do-nothing $-5,624) |
| $97 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 2/5 | $2,025 | $1,892 | 59% | 71% | +$481 | -$3,773 | 27.9% | $-4,996 (vs do-nothing $-3,082) |
| $97 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 3/5 | $2,100 | $1,945 | 58% | 71% | +$435 | -$5,419 | 40.1% | $-6,297 (vs do-nothing $-4,383) |
| $96 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.97 | 2/5 | $2,228 | $2,094 | 54% | 69% | +$357 | -$3,919 | 29.0% | $-5,142 (vs do-nothing $-3,228) |
| $96 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 3/5 | $2,370 | $2,215 | 54% | 69% | +$440 | -$5,584 | 41.3% | $-6,462 (vs do-nothing $-4,548) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 3/5 | $2,550 | $2,395 | 50% | 67% | +$325 | -$5,794 | 42.9% | $-6,672 (vs do-nothing $-4,758) |
| $95 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 2/5 | $2,662 | $2,529 | 49% | 67% | +$420 | -$4,003 | 29.6% | $-5,226 (vs do-nothing $-3,312) |
| $94 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/5 | $2,910 | $2,755 | 46% | 66% | +$362 | -$5,914 | 43.7% | $-6,792 (vs do-nothing $-4,878) |
| $94 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 2/5 | $3,113 | $2,979 | 44% | 65% | +$452 | -$4,083 | 30.2% | $-5,306 (vs do-nothing $-3,392) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.