5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $118.04 (banked floor $117.30) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,150/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $246/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-12,645 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.66 | $331 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $101 | 82% | $2,381 | $568 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $113 | 24 Jul | 8d | 19.5% | 99% | 1% | $75 | $281 | -$2,100 | $2,445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $113 19.5% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.24 mid) = $75 credit for the 8d cycle → $281/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $113) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $113.24) 99% EV / mo +$273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.1] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,322 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,161 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $117 @ 74% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.32/sh now → $4.47 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $113 is $5 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $113.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $113): -$2,445 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,728 (+$9,917 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-677, the opportunity cost of earning $281/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,311 (+$6,334 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $104 | 24 Jul | 8d | 10.0% | 91% | 19% | $300 | $1,125 | -$1,256 | $6,720 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $104 10.0% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.78 mid) = $300 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $104.78) 92% EV / mo +$790 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,706 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,594 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $109 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.36/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $3.34–$5.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $106 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $14 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $104.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$6,720 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,003 (+$5,642 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,952, the opportunity cost of earning $1,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$995, position total $-7,306 (+$5,339 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $103 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.9% | 88% | 24% | $435 | $1,631 | -$750 | $7,085 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $103 8.9% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.90 mid) = $435 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,631/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $104.89) 92% EV / mo +$1,162 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,097 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,423 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $108 @ 77% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.25/sh now → $3.72 mid-life (likely $3.11–$5.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 544 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $105 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $15 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $104.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$7,085 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,368 (+$5,277 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,317, the opportunity cost of earning $1,631/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,360, position total $-7,671 (+$4,974 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $101 | 24 Jul | 8d | 6.8% | 82% | 27% | $635 | $2,381 | — | $7,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $101 6.8% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.68 mid) = $635 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,381/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $102.67) 87% EV / mo +$1,501 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.1] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,910 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,152 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $107 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $3.39–$5.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 812 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $103 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $17 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot ≥ $102.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$7,885 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,168 (+$4,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,117, the opportunity cost of earning $2,381/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,160, position total $-8,471 (+$4,174 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $97 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.6% | 65% | 72% | $1,280 | $4,800 | +$2,419 | $9,240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $97 2.6% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.78 mid) = $1,280 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $99.78) 78% EV / mo +$2,211 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.2] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,303 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$368 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $109 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.66/sh now → $3.30 mid-life (likely $4.16–$5.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,748 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $98 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $21 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.56 collected) or spot ≥ $99.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97): -$9,240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,523 (+$3,122 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,472, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,515, position total $-9,826 (+$2,819 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.053 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,362 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,051
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 5/5 | $2,381 | $2,135 | 82% | 87% | +$1,501 | -$7,885 | 58.3% | $-8,168 (vs do-nothing $-6,117) |
| $100 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.53 | 4/5 | $2,295 | $2,150 | 79% | 84% | +$1,352 | -$6,604 | 48.8% | $-7,240 (vs do-nothing $-5,189) |
| $99 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 4/5 | $2,715 | $2,570 | 74% | 83% | +$1,471 | -$6,892 | 51.0% | $-7,528 (vs do-nothing $-5,477) |
| $98 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 3/5 | $2,464 | $2,419 | 70% | 80% | +$1,251 | -$5,355 | 39.6% | $-6,345 (vs do-nothing $-4,294) |
| $99 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 5/5 | $2,148 | $1,902 | 67% | 76% | +$652 | -$7,945 | 58.8% | $-8,228 (vs do-nothing $-6,177) |
| $97 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.56 | 3/5 | $2,880 | $2,835 | 65% | 78% | +$1,327 | -$5,544 | 41.0% | $-6,534 (vs do-nothing $-4,483) |
| $98 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 5/5 | $2,386 | $2,140 | 64% | 74% | +$668 | -$8,270 | 61.2% | $-8,553 (vs do-nothing $-6,502) |
| $97 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 4/5 | $2,127 | $1,982 | 61% | 73% | +$554 | -$6,856 | 50.7% | $-7,492 (vs do-nothing $-5,441) |
| $96 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 2/5 | $2,122 | $2,179 | 60% | 75% | +$816 | -$3,842 | 28.4% | $-5,186 (vs do-nothing $-3,135) |
| $96 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 3/5 | $2,220 | $2,175 | 58% | 73% | +$655 | -$5,502 | 40.7% | $-6,492 (vs do-nothing $-4,441) |
| $96 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.35 | 4/5 | $2,373 | $2,227 | 57% | 71% | +$580 | -$7,076 | 52.3% | $-7,712 (vs do-nothing $-5,661) |
| $95 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/5 | $2,588 | $2,644 | 54% | 73% | +$962 | -$3,918 | 29.0% | $-5,262 (vs do-nothing $-3,211) |
| $95 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.85 | 4/5 | $2,645 | $2,500 | 54% | 70% | +$610 | -$7,276 | 53.8% | $-7,912 (vs do-nothing $-5,861) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 3/5 | $2,490 | $2,445 | 54% | 71% | +$663 | -$5,667 | 41.9% | $-6,657 (vs do-nothing $-4,606) |
| $94 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 3/5 | $2,189 | $2,144 | 51% | 68% | +$463 | -$5,607 | 41.5% | $-6,597 (vs do-nothing $-4,546) |
| $94 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 3/5 | $2,820 | $2,775 | 50% | 69% | +$616 | -$5,802 | 42.9% | $-6,792 (vs do-nothing $-4,741) |
| $94 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 2/5 | $3,000 | $3,056 | 48% | 71% | +$1,005 | -$4,008 | 29.6% | $-5,352 (vs do-nothing $-3,301) |
| $93 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $2,332 | $2,287 | 47% | 67% | +$390 | -$5,802 | 42.9% | $-6,792 (vs do-nothing $-4,741) |
| $93 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/5 | $2,580 | $2,535 | 46% | 66% | +$52 | -$6,222 | 46.0% | $-7,212 (vs do-nothing $-5,161) |
| $93 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/5 | $3,150 | $3,206 | 43% | 68% | +$736 | -$4,168 | 30.8% | $-5,512 (vs do-nothing $-3,461) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.