FORTRESS FIGHT: NEM @ $94.56

BE SS: $114.54  |  CC-SS: $118.04  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-16 16:07

NEM @ $94.56   UNDERWATER $19.98 (17.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
NEM reports 2026-07-24 (Fri), in 8 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-24.

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $114.54  |  CC-SS: $118.04 (banked floor $117.30)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $87.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $45.141/sh)
SP: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $18.953/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.477/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$28,520(ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500
Normal income ref$4,150/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$246/mo
Unrealized P&L$-12,645fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,075/mo
HEDGE COVER
$246/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,150/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $13,520
ML VELOCITY
6.9 mo to earn back $28,520
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $118.04 (probe: $118C 15d) brings only $266/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$408
Hole (after banked)
$12,237
was $12,645 · 3% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$331
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$118.04 → $117.30
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
5x $100C 17 Jul 2026U10001299$0.66$3312026-07-11
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 15 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 37 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $106.59 (+13%) · daily UBB $103.26 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $101 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,075/mo); it brings $2,381/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $97/8d for $4,800/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $113/8d (99% survival, $281/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $7,885 (58% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-12,848 and cuts bleed by $246/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 5 × $101, 82% survival, $2,381/mo (E[net] $568/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆24 Jul 2026 · 8d5 × $10182%$2,381$568

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $568/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $101 (primary), 82% survival, breach 18%, $2,381/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $103 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 18% → 12%) for $750/mo less (31% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
NEM  spot $94.56 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge5 × $11324 Jul8d19.5%99%1%$75$281-$2,100$2,445
Sell 5 × $113 19.5% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.24 mid)
= $75 credit for the 8d cycle → $281/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $113)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays ≤ $113.24)
99%
EV / mo
+$273
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.1] median  ·  51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~0.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-1,322
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
1%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,161
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$117 @ 74% POP
64% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.32/sh now → $4.47 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.32/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11331 Jul 202611d left+$0.90/sh+$449
cycle +$524
69%
surv 52%
-$2,413 NOT
cap gain +$10,232
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11431 Jul 202611d left+$0.21/sh+$106
cycle +$181
71%
surv 57%
-$1,998 NOT
cap gain +$10,647
Max even-money escape in the band~$1177 Aug 202618d left+$0.10/sh+$50
cycle +$125
74%
surv 64%
-$473 NOT
cap gain +$12,172
reaches SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$281/mo
vs 50% target ($2,075/mo)-86%
vs normal income ($4,150/mo)7% covered
Net income (after hedge)$35/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $113 is $5 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$2,445
… as % of IC ($13,520)18.1%
… as % of ML ($28,520)8.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,690
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $113.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $111.87Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$112-113.24
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $113.24
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$113.00 (2.6σ)$75$-2,861+$9,784-$177
+2.5%$115.82 (3.0σ)$-1,337$-2,786+$9,859-$677
+5%$118.65 (3.4σ)$-2,750$-2,712+$9,933-$677
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $113): -$2,445
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,728 (+$9,917 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-677, the opportunity cost of earning $281/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,311 (+$6,334 vs today)
🛡 safe yield5 × $10424 Jul8d10.0%91%19%$300$1,125-$1,256$6,720
Sell 5 × $104 10.0% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.78 mid)
= $300 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,125/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $104)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $104.78)
92%
EV / mo
+$790
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo)  ·  60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~3.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,706
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,594
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$109 @ 76% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.36/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $3.34–$5.41)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.19/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $106 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10431 Jul 202611d left+$0.76/sh+$380
cycle +$680
[+$142…+$677] · 88% credit
69%
surv 52%
-$6,995 NOT
cap gain +$5,650
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1067 Aug 202618d left+$0.58/sh+$289
cycle +$589
[-$25…+$601] · 72% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$5,801 NOT
cap gain +$6,844
Max even-money escape in the band~$1077 Aug 202618d left+$0.17/sh+$85
cycle +$385
[-$252…+$377] · 52% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$5,478 NOT
cap gain +$7,167
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10531 Jul 202611d left+$0.07/sh+$34
cycle +$334
[-$234…+$289] · 48% credit
71%
surv 58%
-$6,583 NOT
cap gain +$6,062
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1097 Aug 202618d left-$0.52/sh-$259
cycle +$41
[-$628…-$7] · 24% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$4,769 NOT
cap gain +$7,876
budget: banked $300 debit $259 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,726/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,125/mo
vs 50% target ($2,075/mo)-46%
vs normal income ($4,150/mo)27% covered
Net income (after hedge)$879/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $104 is $14 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,720
… as % of IC ($13,520)49.7%
… as % of ML ($28,520)23.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,738
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $104.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $102.96Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$103-104.78
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $104.78
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$104.00 (1.3σ)$300$-7,375+$5,270+$48
+2.5%$106.60 (1.7σ)$-1,000$-7,306+$5,339-$1,252
+5%$109.20 (2.1σ)$-2,300$-7,237+$5,408-$2,552
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-4,970$-7,096+$5,549-$4,952
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$6,720
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,003 (+$5,642 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,952, the opportunity cost of earning $1,125/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$995, position total $-7,306 (+$5,339 vs today)
33% normal5 × $10324 Jul8d8.9%88%24%$435$1,631-$750$7,085
Sell 5 × $103 8.9% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.90 mid)
= $435 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,631/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $103)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays ≤ $104.89)
92%
EV / mo
+$1,162
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo)  ·  64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~3.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,097
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,423
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$108 @ 77% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.25/sh now → $3.72 mid-life (likely $3.11–$5.54)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.85/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 544 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $105 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10331 Jul 202611d left+$0.75/sh+$373
cycle +$808
[+$128…+$678] · 85% credit
69%
surv 52%
-$7,393 NOT
cap gain +$5,252
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1057 Aug 202618d left+$0.55/sh+$273
cycle +$708
[-$56…+$606] · 69% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$6,209 NOT
cap gain +$6,436
Max even-money escape in the band~$1067 Aug 202618d left+$0.14/sh+$70
cycle +$505
[-$289…+$399] · 53% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$5,885 NOT
cap gain +$6,760
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10431 Jul 202611d left+$0.05/sh+$26
cycle +$461
[-$265…+$304] · 50% credit
72%
surv 58%
-$6,982 NOT
cap gain +$5,663
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1087 Aug 202618d left-$0.54/sh-$272
cycle +$163
[-$694…+$43] · 27% credit
77%
surv 69%
-$5,175 NOT
cap gain +$7,470
budget: banked $435 debit $272 (63% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$163 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,643/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,631/mo
vs 50% target ($2,075/mo)-21%
vs normal income ($4,150/mo)39% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,385/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $103 is $15 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,085
… as % of IC ($13,520)52.4%
… as % of ML ($28,520)24.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-13,158
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $104.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$102-104.89
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $104.89
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$103.00 (1.2σ)$435$-7,766+$4,879+$183
+2.5%$105.57 (1.6σ)$-852$-7,698+$4,947-$1,104
+5%$108.15 (1.9σ)$-2,140$-7,630+$5,015-$2,392
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-5,335$-7,461+$5,184-$5,317
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$7,085
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,368 (+$5,277 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,317, the opportunity cost of earning $1,631/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,360, position total $-7,671 (+$4,974 vs today)
🎯 50% normal5 × $10124 Jul8d6.8%82%27%$635$2,381$7,885
Sell 5 × $101 6.8% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.68 mid)
= $635 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,381/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $101)
82%
Breach risk
18%
POP (stays ≤ $102.67)
87%
EV / mo
+$1,501
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.1] median  ·  64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~5.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,910
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
27%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,152
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$107 @ 78% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $3.39–$5.59)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.30/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 812 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $103 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1027 Aug 202618d left+$0.94/sh+$468
cycle +$1,103
[+$56…+$690] · 79% credit
71%
surv 57%
-$7,393 NOT
cap gain +$5,252
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10131 Jul 202611d left+$0.72/sh+$359
cycle +$994
[+$33…+$559] · 78% credit
69%
surv 52%
-$8,261 NOT
cap gain +$4,384
Max even-money escape in the band~$1047 Aug 202618d left+$0.08/sh+$40
cycle +$675
[-$422…+$220] · 39% credit
74%
surv 63%
-$6,769 NOT
cap gain +$5,876
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10231 Jul 202611d left+$0.02/sh+$11
cycle +$646
[-$359…+$170] · 37% credit
72%
surv 58%
-$7,850 NOT
cap gain +$4,795
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1077 Aug 202618d left-$1.09/sh-$547
cycle +$88
[-$1,137…-$402] · 9% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$5,776 NOT
cap gain +$6,869
budget: banked $635 debit $547 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,066/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,381/mo
vs 50% target ($2,075/mo)+15%
vs normal income ($4,150/mo)57% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,135/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $101 is $17 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,885
… as % of IC ($13,520)58.3%
… as % of ML ($28,520)27.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,848
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot ≥ $102.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$100-102.67
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $102.67
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$101.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$635$-8,619+$4,026+$383
+2.5%$103.52 (1.3σ)$-627$-8,552+$4,093-$879
+5%$106.05 (1.6σ)$-1,890$-8,486+$4,159-$2,142
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-6,135$-8,261+$4,384-$6,117
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$7,885
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,168 (+$4,477 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,117, the opportunity cost of earning $2,381/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,160, position total $-8,471 (+$4,174 vs today)
100% normal5 × $9724 Jul8d2.6%65%72%$1,280$4,800+$2,419$9,240
Sell 5 × $97 2.6% OTM over spot $94.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.78 mid)
= $1,280 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,800/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $97)
65%
Breach risk
35%
POP (stays ≤ $99.78)
78%
EV / mo
+$2,211
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.2] median  ·  70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~13.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $6,303
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
58%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$368
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$109 @ 88% POP
87% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.66/sh now → $3.30 mid-life (likely $4.16–$5.84)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,748 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $98 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$977 Aug 202618d left+$1.31/sh+$654
cycle +$1,934
[+$132…+$484] · 87% credit
69%
surv 54%
-$9,194 NOT
cap gain +$3,451
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9731 Jul 202611d left+$0.66/sh+$331
cycle +$1,611
[-$115…+$183] · 56% credit
69%
surv 52%
-$9,749 NOT
cap gain +$2,896
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9731 Jul 202611d left+$0.42/sh+$210
cycle +$1,490
[-$252…+$48] · 32% credit
70%
surv 54%
-$9,639 NOT
cap gain +$3,006
Max even-money escape in the band~$997 Aug 202618d left+$0.36/sh+$181
cycle +$1,461
[-$412…-$31] · 23% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$8,615 NOT
cap gain +$4,030
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1097 Aug 202618d left-$2.38/sh-$1,189
cycle +$91
[-$2,150…-$1,520]
88%
surv 87%
-$4,719 NOT
cap gain +$7,926
budget: banked $1,280 debit $1,189 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $766/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,075/mo)+131%
vs normal income ($4,150/mo)116% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,554/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $97 is $21 below CC-SS $118.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$9,240
… as % of IC ($13,520)68.3%
… as % of ML ($28,520)32.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-12,755
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.56 collected) or spot ≥ $99.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $103.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.03Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$96-99.78
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $99.78
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$97.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,280$-10,080+$2,565+$1,028
+2.5%$99.42 (≤1σ, normal week)$68$-10,016+$2,629-$184
+5%$101.85 (1.0σ)$-1,145$-9,952+$2,693-$1,397
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (2.9σ)$-7,490$-9,616+$3,029-$7,472
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,645
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,362
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97): -$9,240
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,523 (+$3,122 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,472, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.59 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,515, position total $-9,826 (+$2,819 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NEM are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.053 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$12,362 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,051

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1018d24 Jul 2026$1.275/5$2,381$2,13582%87%+$1,501-$7,88558.3%$-8,168 (vs do-nothing $-6,117)
$1008d24 Jul 2026$1.534/5$2,295$2,15079%84%+$1,352-$6,60448.8%$-7,240 (vs do-nothing $-5,189)
$998d24 Jul 2026$1.814/5$2,715$2,57074%83%+$1,471-$6,89251.0%$-7,528 (vs do-nothing $-5,477)
$988d24 Jul 2026$2.193/5$2,464$2,41970%80%+$1,251-$5,35539.6%$-6,345 (vs do-nothing $-4,294)
$9922d7 Aug 2026$3.155/5$2,148$1,90267%76%+$652-$7,94558.8%$-8,228 (vs do-nothing $-6,177)
$978d24 Jul 2026$2.563/5$2,880$2,83565%78%+$1,327-$5,54441.0%$-6,534 (vs do-nothing $-4,483)
$9822d7 Aug 2026$3.505/5$2,386$2,14064%74%+$668-$8,27061.2%$-8,553 (vs do-nothing $-6,502)
$9722d7 Aug 2026$3.904/5$2,127$1,98261%73%+$554-$6,85650.7%$-7,492 (vs do-nothing $-5,441)
$968d24 Jul 2026$2.832/5$2,122$2,17960%75%+$816-$3,84228.4%$-5,186 (vs do-nothing $-3,135)
$9615d31 Jul 2026$3.703/5$2,220$2,17558%73%+$655-$5,50240.7%$-6,492 (vs do-nothing $-4,441)
$9622d7 Aug 2026$4.354/5$2,373$2,22757%71%+$580-$7,07652.3%$-7,712 (vs do-nothing $-5,661)
$958d24 Jul 2026$3.452/5$2,588$2,64454%73%+$962-$3,91829.0%$-5,262 (vs do-nothing $-3,211)
$9522d7 Aug 2026$4.854/5$2,645$2,50054%70%+$610-$7,27653.8%$-7,912 (vs do-nothing $-5,861)
Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$9515d31 Jul 2026$4.153/5$2,490$2,44554%71%+$663-$5,66741.9%$-6,657 (vs do-nothing $-4,606)
$9422d7 Aug 2026$5.353/5$2,189$2,14451%68%+$463-$5,60741.5%$-6,597 (vs do-nothing $-4,546)
$9415d31 Jul 2026$4.703/5$2,820$2,77550%69%+$616-$5,80242.9%$-6,792 (vs do-nothing $-4,741)
$948d24 Jul 2026$4.002/5$3,000$3,05648%71%+$1,005-$4,00829.6%$-5,352 (vs do-nothing $-3,301)
$9322d7 Aug 2026$5.703/5$2,332$2,28747%67%+$390-$5,80242.9%$-6,792 (vs do-nothing $-4,741)
$9315d31 Jul 2026$4.303/5$2,580$2,53546%66%+$52-$6,22246.0%$-7,212 (vs do-nothing $-5,161)
$938d24 Jul 2026$4.202/5$3,150$3,20643%68%+$736-$4,16830.8%$-5,512 (vs do-nothing $-3,461)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-16 16:07