5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $118.60 (banked floor $117.85) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $2,650/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $307/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,272 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.66 | $331 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $100 | 79% | $1,556 | $-650 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $105 | 24 Jul | 8d | 11.9% | 91% | 18% | $85 | $319 | -$1,238 | $6,714 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 11.9% OTM over spot $93.82 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.49 mid) = $85 credit for the 8d cycle → $319/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $105.48) 92% EV / mo $-39 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.4] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-470 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,895 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $105 @ 62% POP 52% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.60/sh now → $3.96 mid-life (likely $3.26–$5.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 360 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $107 (overshoots $1.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $14 below CC-SS $118.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $105.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,272 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,860 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$6,714 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,127 (+$6,146 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,662 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,465, the opportunity cost of earning $319/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.49 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$660, position total $-7,357 (+$5,916 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $101 | 24 Jul | 8d | 7.7% | 82% | 37% | $256 | $960 | -$596 | $6,783 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $101 7.7% OTM over spot $93.82 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.10 mid) = $256 credit for the 8d cycle → $960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $102.11) 85% EV / mo +$147 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,172 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,215 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $102 @ 66% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.20/sh now → $3.68 mid-life (likely $3.71–$5.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 847 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $103 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $18 below CC-SS $118.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $102.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,272 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,860 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $101): -$6,783 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$850 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,046 (+$5,227 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,662 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,384, the opportunity cost of earning $960/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.49 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,940, position total $-8,627 (+$4,646 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $100 | 24 Jul | 8d | 6.6% | 79% | 33% | $415 | $1,556 | — | $8,884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 6.6% OTM over spot $93.82 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.21 mid) = $415 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,556/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $101.20) 83% EV / mo +$254 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.0] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,473 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,390 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $101 @ 66% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.10/sh now → $3.61 mid-life (likely $3.70–$5.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 978 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $102 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $19 below CC-SS $118.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $101.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,272 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,860 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,884 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,297 (+$3,976 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,662 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,635, the opportunity cost of earning $1,556/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.49 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,830, position total $-9,527 (+$3,746 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $95 | 24 Jul | 8d | 1.3% | 58% | 88% | $840 | $3,150 | +$1,594 | $10,959 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $95 1.3% OTM over spot $93.82 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.67 mid) = $840 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $97.67) 70% EV / mo $-820 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~22.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,362 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$798 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $99 @ 71% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.63/sh now → $3.28 mid-life (likely $4.46–$6.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,068 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $97 (overshoots $1.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $24 below CC-SS $118.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.68 collected) or spot ≥ $97.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,272 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,860 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$10,959 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,372 (+$1,901 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,662 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,710, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.49 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,905, position total $-11,602 (+$1,671 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.038 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,860 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,662
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 5/5 | $1,556 | $1,249 | 79% | 83% | +$254 | -$8,884 | 65.7% | $-9,297 (vs do-nothing $-4,635) |
| $98 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 4/5 | $1,395 | $1,108 | 71% | 79% | $-277 | -$7,867 | 58.2% | $-9,130 (vs do-nothing $-4,468) |
| $97 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.31 | 3/5 | $1,474 | $1,207 | 67% | 75% | $-94 | -$6,087 | 45.0% | $-8,199 (vs do-nothing $-3,537) |
| $98 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 5/5 | $1,390 | $1,083 | 67% | 74% | $-592 | -$9,604 | 71.0% | $-10,017 (vs do-nothing $-5,355) |
| $97 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 5/5 | $1,490 | $1,183 | 64% | 73% | $-820 | -$10,054 | 74.4% | $-10,467 (vs do-nothing $-5,805) |
| $96 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 4/5 | $1,545 | $1,258 | 62% | 73% | $-1,045 | -$8,627 | 63.8% | $-9,890 (vs do-nothing $-5,228) |
| $97 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.60 | 4/5 | $1,418 | $1,131 | 62% | 72% | $-245 | -$7,599 | 56.2% | $-8,862 (vs do-nothing $-4,200) |
| $96 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 3/5 | $1,410 | $1,143 | 61% | 72% | $-39 | -$6,075 | 44.9% | $-8,187 (vs do-nothing $-3,525) |
| $96 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.55 | 4/5 | $1,391 | $1,104 | 60% | 72% | $-221 | -$8,019 | 59.3% | $-9,282 (vs do-nothing $-4,620) |
| $95 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 3/5 | $1,890 | $1,623 | 58% | 70% | $-492 | -$6,576 | 48.6% | $-8,688 (vs do-nothing $-4,026) |
| $95 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 3/5 | $1,650 | $1,383 | 57% | 68% | $-201 | -$6,255 | 46.3% | $-8,367 (vs do-nothing $-3,705) |
| $95 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 4/5 | $1,691 | $1,404 | 56% | 69% | $-147 | -$8,199 | 60.6% | $-9,462 (vs do-nothing $-4,800) |
| $94 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 4/5 | $1,718 | $1,431 | 53% | 69% | $-368 | -$8,579 | 63.5% | $-9,842 (vs do-nothing $-5,180) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 3/5 | $1,590 | $1,323 | 53% | 67% | $-532 | -$6,585 | 48.7% | $-8,697 (vs do-nothing $-4,035) |
| $94 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.31 | 2/5 | $1,732 | $1,485 | 53% | 69% | $-194 | -$4,458 | 33.0% | $-7,420 (vs do-nothing $-2,758) |
| $93 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 3/5 | $1,514 | $1,247 | 50% | 65% | $-446 | -$6,570 | 48.6% | $-8,682 (vs do-nothing $-4,020) |
| $93 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/5 | $1,890 | $1,623 | 49% | 65% | $-529 | -$6,735 | 49.8% | $-8,847 (vs do-nothing $-4,185) |
| $93 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.49 | 2/5 | $1,868 | $1,620 | 47% | 66% | $-444 | -$4,622 | 34.2% | $-7,584 (vs do-nothing $-2,922) |
| $92 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 3/5 | $1,718 | $1,451 | 47% | 64% | $-456 | -$6,720 | 49.7% | $-8,832 (vs do-nothing $-4,170) |
| $92 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 2/5 | $1,460 | $1,213 | 45% | 64% | $-368 | -$4,590 | 33.9% | $-7,552 (vs do-nothing $-2,890) |
| $92 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 2/5 | $2,175 | $1,928 | 42% | 64% | $-568 | -$4,740 | 35.1% | $-7,702 (vs do-nothing $-3,040) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.