5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $117.57 (banked floor $116.82) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,905/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $302/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,945 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.66 | $331 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $98 | 81% | $2,100 | $249 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $105 | 24 Jul | 7d | 14.8% | 98% | 5% | +2pp | $92 | $394 | -$1,706 | $4,935 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 14.8% OTM over spot $91.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid) = $92 credit for the 7d cycle → $394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $105.29) 98% EV / mo +$354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-68/mo median; plan ~$-46/mo after 68% keep · $-532 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,232 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $113 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.68/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $2.63–$4.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 180 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $2.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $13 below CC-SS $117.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $105.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,945 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,409 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$4,935 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$747 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,218 (+$7,727 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,270 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,948, the opportunity cost of earning $394/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$472, position total $-6,728 (+$7,217 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $102 | 24 Jul | 7d | 11.5% | 91% | 18% | +7pp | $215 | $921 | -$1,179 | $7,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $102 11.5% OTM over spot $91.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid) = $215 credit for the 7d cycle → $921/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $102.66) 92% EV / mo +$528 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $307/mo median; plan ~$209/mo after 68% keep · $1,600 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-3.8], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,354 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $110 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.44/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $104 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $16 below CC-SS $117.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $102.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,945 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,409 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$7,569 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,105 (+$5,840 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,270 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,835, the opportunity cost of earning $921/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,990, position total $-8,256 (+$5,689 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $100 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.3% | 87% | 27% | +8pp | $325 | $1,393 | -$707 | $8,459 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 9.3% OTM over spot $91.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.73 mid) = $325 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,393/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $100.73) 89% EV / mo +$676 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $531/mo median; plan ~$361/mo after 68% keep · $2,979 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,188 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $109 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.28/sh now → $3.03 mid-life (likely $2.82–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 578 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $117.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $100.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,945 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,409 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,459 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,995 (+$4,950 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,270 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,725, the opportunity cost of earning $1,393/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,880, position total $-9,146 (+$4,799 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $98 | 24 Jul | 7d | 7.2% | 81% | 30% | +12pp | $490 | $2,100 | — | $9,294 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $98 7.2% OTM over spot $91.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.17 mid) = $490 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $99.17) 84% EV / mo +$849 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $746/mo median; plan ~$507/mo after 68% keep · $4,425 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$968 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $107 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.92 mid-life (likely $2.91–$4.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 889 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $100 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $20 below CC-SS $117.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $99.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,945 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,409 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$9,294 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,830 (+$4,115 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,270 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,560, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,715, position total $-9,981 (+$3,964 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $94 | 24 Jul | 7d | 2.8% | 64% | 73% | +15pp | $1,055 | $4,521 | +$2,421 | $10,729 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $94 2.8% OTM over spot $91.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.29 mid) = $1,055 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,521/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $96.29) 75% EV / mo +$1,212 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,242/mo median; plan ~$845/mo after 68% keep · $6,252 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.2], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$296 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $110 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.82/sh now → $2.70 mid-life (likely $3.45–$4.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,669 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $96 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $24 below CC-SS $117.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.11 collected) or spot ≥ $96.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,945 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,409 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $94): -$10,729 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,265 (+$2,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,270 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,995, the opportunity cost of earning $4,521/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,150, position total $-11,416 (+$2,529 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.027 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,409 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,270
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 5/5 | $2,100 | $1,798 | 81% | 84% | +$849 | -$9,294 | 68.7% | $-9,830 (vs do-nothing $-5,560) |
| $97 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | 4/5 | $2,074 | $1,793 | 77% | 82% | +$775 | -$7,743 | 57.3% | $-9,026 (vs do-nothing $-4,756) |
| $96 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 4/5 | $2,503 | $2,222 | 73% | 79% | +$836 | -$8,043 | 59.5% | $-9,326 (vs do-nothing $-5,056) |
| $96 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 5/5 | $2,164 | $1,862 | 70% | 77% | +$567 | -$9,774 | 72.3% | $-10,310 (vs do-nothing $-6,040) |
| $95 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 3/5 | $2,263 | $2,003 | 69% | 77% | +$678 | -$6,242 | 46.2% | $-8,272 (vs do-nothing $-4,002) |
| $95 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 4/5 | $2,049 | $1,768 | 66% | 75% | +$514 | -$8,071 | 59.7% | $-9,354 (vs do-nothing $-5,084) |
| $95 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.99 | 5/5 | $2,136 | $1,833 | 65% | 74% | +$505 | -$9,789 | 72.4% | $-10,325 (vs do-nothing $-6,055) |
| $94 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 3/5 | $2,713 | $2,453 | 64% | 75% | +$727 | -$6,437 | 47.6% | $-8,467 (vs do-nothing $-4,197) |
| $94 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 4/5 | $2,331 | $2,050 | 62% | 73% | +$502 | -$8,339 | 61.7% | $-9,622 (vs do-nothing $-5,352) |
| $94 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.25 | 5/5 | $2,321 | $2,019 | 61% | 72% | +$436 | -$10,159 | 75.1% | $-10,695 (vs do-nothing $-6,425) |
| $94 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 5/5 | $1,955 | $1,653 | 61% | 72% | +$352 | -$9,959 | 73.7% | $-10,495 (vs do-nothing $-6,225) |
| $93 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.46 | 2/5 | $2,109 | $1,870 | 60% | 72% | +$470 | -$4,422 | 32.7% | $-7,198 (vs do-nothing $-2,928) |
| $93 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 3/5 | $1,961 | $1,701 | 58% | 71% | +$337 | -$6,455 | 47.7% | $-8,485 (vs do-nothing $-4,215) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $93 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 4/5 | $2,143 | $1,862 | 58% | 71% | +$407 | -$8,327 | 61.6% | $-9,610 (vs do-nothing $-5,340) |
| $93 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 5/5 | $2,250 | $1,948 | 58% | 70% | +$432 | -$10,184 | 75.3% | $-10,720 (vs do-nothing $-6,450) |
| $92 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 2/5 | $2,426 | $2,188 | 54% | 70% | +$421 | -$4,548 | 33.6% | $-7,324 (vs do-nothing $-3,054) |
| $92 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 4/5 | $2,014 | $1,733 | 54% | 69% | +$371 | -$8,347 | 61.7% | $-9,630 (vs do-nothing $-5,360) |
| $92 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 4/5 | $2,400 | $2,119 | 54% | 69% | +$412 | -$8,547 | 63.2% | $-9,830 (vs do-nothing $-5,560) |
| $92 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $2,282 | $2,023 | 54% | 69% | +$375 | -$6,605 | 48.9% | $-8,635 (vs do-nothing $-4,365) |
| $91 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 4/5 | $2,229 | $1,948 | 51% | 68% | +$378 | -$8,547 | 63.2% | $-9,830 (vs do-nothing $-5,560) |
| $91 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 3/5 | $1,993 | $1,733 | 51% | 67% | +$294 | -$6,575 | 48.6% | $-8,605 (vs do-nothing $-4,335) |
| $91 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 3/5 | $2,636 | $2,376 | 50% | 67% | +$413 | -$6,740 | 49.9% | $-8,770 (vs do-nothing $-4,500) |
| $91 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 2/5 | $2,829 | $2,590 | 49% | 67% | +$404 | -$4,654 | 34.4% | $-7,430 (vs do-nothing $-3,160) |
| $90 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 4/5 | $2,336 | $2,055 | 48% | 66% | +$261 | -$8,847 | 65.4% | $-10,130 (vs do-nothing $-5,860) |
| $90 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 3/5 | $2,229 | $1,969 | 47% | 66% | +$302 | -$6,710 | 49.6% | $-8,740 (vs do-nothing $-4,470) |
| $90 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 3/5 | $2,893 | $2,633 | 46% | 65% | +$322 | -$6,920 | 51.2% | $-8,950 (vs do-nothing $-4,680) |
| $90 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $3,062 | 44% | 65% | +$403 | -$4,744 | 35.1% | $-7,520 (vs do-nothing $-3,250) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.