5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $117.30 (banked floor $116.55) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,096/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $476/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-14,990 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.66 | $331 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $95 | 79% | $1,607 | $-768 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $100 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.4% | 95% | 11% | +5pp | $120 | $514 | -$1,093 | $5,069 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $100 12.4% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.55 mid) = $120 credit for the 7d cycle → $514/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $100.55) 96% EV / mo +$424 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-153/mo median; plan ~$-104/mo after 68% keep · $-1,147 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.7-4.6], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,089 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $101 @ 67% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.70/sh now → $4.03 mid-life (likely $3.19–$5.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $17 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $100.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $100): -$5,069 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $120): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,852 (+$9,138 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,072, the opportunity cost of earning $514/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,764, position total $-8,077 (+$6,913 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $100 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.4% | 95% | 11% | +7pp | $200 | $857 | -$750 | $8,449 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 12.4% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.55 mid) = $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $100.55) 96% EV / mo +$707 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $65/mo median; plan ~$44/mo after 68% keep · $314 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.1], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,815 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $101 @ 67% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.70/sh now → $4.03 mid-life (likely $3.27–$5.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 314 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $17 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $100.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,449 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,233 (+$5,757 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,454, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,940, position total $-9,255 (+$5,735 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $96 | 24 Jul | 7d | 7.9% | 82% | 36% | +6pp | $275 | $1,179 | -$429 | $10,374 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $96 7.9% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.02 mid) = $275 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,179/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $97.03) 85% EV / mo +$88 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $143/mo median; plan ~$97/mo after 68% keep · $648 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-5.0], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,594 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $97 @ 67% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.28/sh now → $3.74 mid-life (likely $3.62–$5.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 758 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $98 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $21 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $97.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$10,374 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,158 (+$3,832 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,379, the opportunity cost of earning $1,179/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,865, position total $-11,180 (+$3,810 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $95 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.7% | 79% | 30% | +7pp | $375 | $1,607 | — | $10,774 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $95 6.7% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.22 mid) = $375 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,607/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $96.22) 83% EV / mo +$202 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $287/mo median; plan ~$195/mo after 68% keep · $1,600 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,458 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $97 @ 68% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.18/sh now → $3.67 mid-life (likely $3.93–$6.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 907 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $97 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $22 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $96.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$10,774 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,558 (+$3,432 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,779, the opportunity cost of earning $1,607/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,265, position total $-11,580 (+$3,410 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $93 | 24 Jul | 7d | 4.5% | 71% | 59% | +11pp | $800 | $3,429 | +$1,821 | $11,349 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $93 4.5% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.90 mid) = $800 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $93) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $94.90) 79% EV / mo +$1,145 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $896/mo median; plan ~$609/mo after 68% keep · $5,074 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$963 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $97 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.99/sh now → $3.53 mid-life (likely $4.16–$6.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,333 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $93 is $24 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $94.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93): -$11,349 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,133 (+$2,857 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,354, the opportunity cost of earning $3,429/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,840, position total $-12,155 (+$2,835 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.004 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,206 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-779
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 5/5 | $1,607 | $1,131 | 79% | 83% | +$202 | -$10,774 | 79.7% | $-11,558 (vs do-nothing $-10,779) |
| $94 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 5/5 | $1,693 | $1,217 | 76% | 81% | $-105 | -$11,254 | 83.2% | $-12,038 (vs do-nothing $-11,259) |
| $93 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 3/5 | $2,057 | $1,585 | 71% | 79% | +$687 | -$6,809 | 50.4% | $-7,592 (vs do-nothing $-6,812) |
| $93 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.58 | 5/5 | $1,693 | $1,217 | 68% | 78% | +$16 | -$11,359 | 84.0% | $-12,143 (vs do-nothing $-11,364) |
| $92 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 3/5 | $1,800 | $1,328 | 67% | 76% | +$74 | -$7,169 | 53.0% | $-7,952 (vs do-nothing $-7,172) |
| $93 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.75 | 4/5 | $1,571 | $1,097 | 66% | 75% | +$295 | -$8,619 | 63.8% | $-9,403 (vs do-nothing $-8,623) |
| $92 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 5/5 | $1,821 | $1,345 | 65% | 74% | $-196 | -$11,799 | 87.3% | $-12,583 (vs do-nothing $-11,804) |
| $92 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.45 | 5/5 | $1,750 | $1,274 | 63% | 74% | $-89 | -$11,424 | 84.5% | $-12,208 (vs do-nothing $-11,429) |
| $91 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 3/5 | $2,289 | $1,817 | 62% | 73% | +$136 | -$7,355 | 54.4% | $-8,138 (vs do-nothing $-7,358) |
| $91 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.36 | 4/5 | $2,023 | $1,549 | 61% | 73% | +$95 | -$9,575 | 70.8% | $-10,359 (vs do-nothing $-9,579) |
| $91 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.82 | 4/5 | $1,611 | $1,137 | 59% | 71% | $-76 | -$9,391 | 69.5% | $-10,175 (vs do-nothing $-9,395) |
| $90 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 2/5 | $1,671 | $1,202 | 57% | 72% | $-99 | -$5,070 | 37.5% | $-5,851 (vs do-nothing $-5,072) |
| $90 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 3/5 | $1,768 | $1,296 | 56% | 71% | +$55 | -$7,364 | 54.5% | $-8,147 (vs do-nothing $-7,367) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 4/5 | $2,000 | $1,526 | 56% | 71% | +$74 | -$9,519 | 70.4% | $-10,303 (vs do-nothing $-9,523) |
| $90 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 5/5 | $1,688 | $1,211 | 56% | 71% | $-251 | -$12,074 | 89.3% | $-12,858 (vs do-nothing $-12,079) |
| $89 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 5/5 | $1,688 | $1,211 | 53% | 68% | $-504 | -$12,574 | 93.0% | $-13,358 (vs do-nothing $-12,579) |
| $89 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.40 | 4/5 | $1,943 | $1,469 | 53% | 68% | $-245 | -$9,959 | 73.7% | $-10,743 (vs do-nothing $-9,963) |
| $89 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.89 | 3/5 | $1,858 | $1,386 | 52% | 69% | $-155 | -$7,622 | 56.4% | $-8,405 (vs do-nothing $-7,625) |
| $89 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 2/5 | $2,229 | $1,759 | 52% | 70% | +$67 | -$5,140 | 38.0% | $-5,921 (vs do-nothing $-5,142) |
| $88 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 4/5 | $1,586 | $1,112 | 50% | 66% | $-520 | -$10,239 | 75.7% | $-11,023 (vs do-nothing $-10,243) |
| $88 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 4/5 | $2,029 | $1,555 | 49% | 67% | $-353 | -$10,299 | 76.2% | $-11,083 (vs do-nothing $-10,303) |
| $88 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/5 | $2,025 | $1,553 | 48% | 67% | $-321 | -$7,844 | 58.0% | $-8,627 (vs do-nothing $-7,847) |
| $88 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.84 | 2/5 | $2,434 | $1,965 | 46% | 67% | $-174 | -$5,292 | 39.1% | $-6,073 (vs do-nothing $-5,294) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.