FORTRESS FIGHT: NEM @ $89.00

BE SS: $114.54  |  CC-SS: $117.30  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-17 21:37

NEM @ $89.00   UNDERWATER $25.54 (22.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
NEM reports 2026-07-24 (Fri), in 7 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-24.

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $114.54  |  CC-SS: $117.30 (banked floor $116.55)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $87.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $45.141/sh)
SP: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $18.953/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.477/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$28,520(ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500
Normal income ref$3,096/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$476/mo
Unrealized P&L$-14,990fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,548/mo
HEDGE COVER
$476/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$3,096/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.4 mo to earn back $13,520
ML VELOCITY
9.2 mo to earn back $28,520
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $117.30 (probe: $120C 14d) brings only $11/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$408
Hole (after banked)
$14,582
was $14,990 · 3% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$331
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$117.30 → $116.55
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
5x $100C 17 Jul 2026U10001299$0.66$3312026-07-11
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B 2 (live) · RSI 40 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B 2 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $106.28 (+19%) · daily UBB $100.43 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $95 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,548/mo); it brings $1,607/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $93/7d for $3,429/mo, but breach risk rises to 29% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 3 × $100/7d (95% survival, $514/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $10,774 (80% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 3.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-15,225 and cuts bleed by $476/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $95, 79% survival, $1,607/mo (E[net] $-768/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆24 Jul 2026 · 7d5 × $9579%$1,607$-768

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $-768/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $95 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $1,607/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $96 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 21% → 18%) for $429/mo less (27% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
NEM  spot $89.00 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge3 × $10024 Jul7d12.4%95%11%+5pp$120$514-$1,093$5,069
Sell 3 × $100 12.4% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.55 mid)
= $120 credit for the 7d cycle → $514/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $100)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $100.55)
96%
EV / mo
+$424
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
42% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-153/mo
median; plan ~$-104/mo after 68% keep · $-1,147 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.7-4.6], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,089
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$101 @ 67% POP
56% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.70/sh now → $4.03 mid-life (likely $3.19–$5.40)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (3 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$1017 Aug 202618d left+$0.04/sh+$11
cycle +$131
[-$146…+$273] · 58% credit
67%
surv 56%
-$8,833 NOT
cap gain +$6,157
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10031 Jul 202610d left-$0.89/sh-$267
cycle -$147
[-$443…-$37] · 24% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$9,613 NOT
cap gain +$5,377
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$514/mo
vs 50% target ($1,548/mo)-67%
vs normal income ($3,096/mo)17% covered
Net income (after hedge)$42/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $100 is $17 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,069
… as % of IC ($13,520)37.5%
… as % of ML ($28,520)17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.6 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)$-9,039
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $100.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$99-100.55
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $100.55
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$100.00 (1.7σ)$120$-9,346+$5,644+$117
+2.5%$102.50 (2.1σ)$-630$-8,841+$6,149-$633
+5%$105.00 (2.5σ)$-1,380$-8,336+$6,654-$1,383
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (3.9σ)$-4,242$-6,409+$8,581-$4,245
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $100): -$5,069
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $120): +$2
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,852 (+$9,138 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,072, the opportunity cost of earning $514/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,764, position total $-8,077 (+$6,913 vs today)
🛡 safe yield5 × $10024 Jul7d12.4%95%11%+7pp$200$857-$750$8,449
Sell 5 × $100 12.4% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.55 mid)
= $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $100)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $100.55)
96%
EV / mo
+$707
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+7pp
45% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$65/mo
median; plan ~$44/mo after 68% keep · $314 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.1], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,815
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$101 @ 67% POP
56% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.70/sh now → $4.03 mid-life (likely $3.27–$5.75)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 314 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$1017 Aug 202618d left+$0.04/sh+$18
cycle +$218
[-$318…+$481] · 55% credit
67%
surv 56%
-$8,748 NOT
cap gain +$6,242
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10031 Jul 202610d left-$0.89/sh-$445
cycle -$245
[-$813…-$41] · 24% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$9,713 NOT
cap gain +$5,277
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$857/mo
vs 50% target ($1,548/mo)-45%
vs normal income ($3,096/mo)28% covered
Net income (after hedge)$381/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $100 is $17 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$8,449
… as % of IC ($13,520)62.5%
… as % of ML ($28,520)29.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-15,065
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $100.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$99-100.55
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $100.55
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$100.00 (1.7σ)$200$-9,268+$5,722+$195
+2.5%$102.50 (2.1σ)$-1,050$-9,263+$5,727-$1,055
+5%$105.00 (2.5σ)$-2,300$-9,258+$5,732-$2,305
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (3.9σ)$-7,070$-9,239+$5,751-$7,075
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,449
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,233 (+$5,757 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,454, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,940, position total $-9,255 (+$5,735 vs today)
33% normal5 × $9624 Jul7d7.9%82%36%+6pp$275$1,179-$429$10,374
Sell 5 × $96 7.9% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.02 mid)
= $275 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,179/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $96)
82%
Breach risk
18%
POP (stays ≤ $97.03)
85%
EV / mo
+$88
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+6pp
54% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.4/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$143/mo
median; plan ~$97/mo after 68% keep · $648 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-5.0], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
25%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,594
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$97 @ 67% POP
56% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.28/sh now → $3.74 mid-life (likely $3.62–$5.73)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.19/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 758 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $98 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$957 Aug 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$3
cycle +$278
[-$517…+$259] · 36% credit
62%
surv 49%
-$11,700 NOT
cap gain +$3,290
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$977 Aug 202618d left-$0.01/sh-$7
cycle +$268
[-$499…+$238] · 36% credit
67%
surv 56%
-$10,706 NOT
cap gain +$4,284
budget: banked $275 debit $7 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$268 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,104/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9631 Jul 202610d left-$0.84/sh-$419
cycle -$144
[-$928…-$216] · 16% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$11,620 NOT
cap gain +$3,370
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,179/mo
vs 50% target ($1,548/mo)-24%
vs normal income ($3,096/mo)38% covered
Net income (after hedge)$702/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $96 is $21 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,374
… as % of IC ($13,520)76.7%
… as % of ML ($28,520)36.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-15,227
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $97.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$95-97.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $97.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$96.00 (1.1σ)$275$-11,201+$3,789+$270
+2.5%$98.40 (1.4σ)$-925$-11,196+$3,794-$930
+5%$100.80 (1.8σ)$-2,125$-11,191+$3,799-$2,130
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (3.9σ)$-8,995$-11,164+$3,826-$9,000
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$10,374
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,158 (+$3,832 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,379, the opportunity cost of earning $1,179/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,865, position total $-11,180 (+$3,810 vs today)
🎯 50% normal5 × $9524 Jul7d6.7%79%30%+7pp$375$1,607$10,774
Sell 5 × $95 6.7% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.22 mid)
= $375 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,607/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $95)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $96.22)
83%
EV / mo
+$202
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+7pp
53% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$287/mo
median; plan ~$195/mo after 68% keep · $1,600 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
30%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,458
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$97 @ 68% POP
59% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.18/sh now → $3.67 mid-life (likely $3.93–$6.09)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.92/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 907 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $97 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$947 Aug 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$4
cycle +$379
[-$622…+$36] · 27% credit
61%
surv 49%
-$12,101 NOT
cap gain +$2,889
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$977 Aug 202618d left-$0.72/sh-$361
cycle +$14
[-$1,043…-$365] · 11% credit
68%
surv 59%
-$10,960 NOT
cap gain +$4,030
budget: banked $375 debit $361 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,454/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9531 Jul 202610d left-$0.82/sh-$412
cycle -$37
[-$1,029…-$412] · 10% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$12,015 NOT
cap gain +$2,975
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,607/mo
vs 50% target ($1,548/mo)+4%
vs normal income ($3,096/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,131/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $95 is $22 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,774
… as % of IC ($13,520)79.7%
… as % of ML ($28,520)37.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-15,225
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $96.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$94-96.22
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $96.22
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$95.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$375$-11,603+$3,387+$370
+2.5%$97.37 (1.3σ)$-812$-11,598+$3,392-$817
+5%$99.75 (1.6σ)$-2,000$-11,593+$3,396-$2,005
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (3.9σ)$-9,395$-11,564+$3,426-$9,400
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$10,774
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,558 (+$3,432 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,779, the opportunity cost of earning $1,607/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,265, position total $-11,580 (+$3,410 vs today)
100% normal5 × $9324 Jul7d4.5%71%59%+11pp$800$3,429+$1,821$11,349
Sell 5 × $93 4.5% OTM over spot $89.00 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.90 mid)
= $800 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,429/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $93)
71%
Breach risk
29%
POP (stays ≤ $94.90)
79%
EV / mo
+$1,145
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+11pp
56% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~4.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$896/mo
median; plan ~$609/mo after 68% keep · $5,074 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
44%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$963
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)
$97 @ 74% POP
66% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.99/sh now → $3.53 mid-life (likely $4.16–$6.06)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,333 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$927 Aug 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$7
cycle +$807
[-$699…-$116] · 20% credit
61%
surv 49%
-$12,677 NOT
cap gain +$2,313
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9331 Jul 202610d left-$0.80/sh-$400
cycle +$400
[-$1,080…-$531] · 7% credit
64%
surv 52%
-$12,582 NOT
cap gain +$2,408
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$977 Aug 202618d left-$0.80/sh-$401
cycle +$399
[-$1,113…-$541] · 7% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$10,575 NOT
cap gain +$4,415
budget: banked $800 debit $401 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$399 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,269/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,429/mo
vs 50% target ($1,548/mo)+121%
vs normal income ($3,096/mo)111% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,952/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $93 is $24 below CC-SS $117.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$11,349
… as % of IC ($13,520)83.9%
… as % of ML ($28,520)39.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-15,140
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $94.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $92.07Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$92-94.90
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $94.90
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$93.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$800$-12,182+$2,808+$795
+2.5%$95.32 (≤1σ, normal week)$-362$-12,177+$2,813-$367
+5%$97.65 (1.3σ)$-1,525$-12,173+$2,817-$1,530
SS (= V-bounce)$114.54 (3.9σ)$-9,970$-12,139+$2,851-$9,975
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,990
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,206
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93): -$11,349
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,133 (+$2,857 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,354, the opportunity cost of earning $3,429/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $106.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,840, position total $-12,155 (+$2,835 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NEM are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (23 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.004 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$14,206 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-779

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$957d24 Jul 2026$0.755/5$1,607$1,13179%83%+$202-$10,77479.7%$-11,558 (vs do-nothing $-10,779)
$947d24 Jul 2026$0.795/5$1,693$1,21776%81%$-105-$11,25483.2%$-12,038 (vs do-nothing $-11,259)
$937d24 Jul 2026$1.603/5$2,057$1,58571%79%+$687-$6,80950.4%$-7,592 (vs do-nothing $-6,812)
$9314d31 Jul 2026$1.585/5$1,693$1,21768%78%+$16-$11,35984.0%$-12,143 (vs do-nothing $-11,364)
$927d24 Jul 2026$1.403/5$1,800$1,32867%76%+$74-$7,16953.0%$-7,952 (vs do-nothing $-7,172)
$9321d7 Aug 2026$2.754/5$1,571$1,09766%75%+$295-$8,61963.8%$-9,403 (vs do-nothing $-8,623)
$9214d31 Jul 2026$1.705/5$1,821$1,34565%74%$-196-$11,79987.3%$-12,583 (vs do-nothing $-11,804)
$9221d7 Aug 2026$2.455/5$1,750$1,27463%74%$-89-$11,42484.5%$-12,208 (vs do-nothing $-11,429)
$917d24 Jul 2026$1.783/5$2,289$1,81762%73%+$136-$7,35554.4%$-8,138 (vs do-nothing $-7,358)
$9114d31 Jul 2026$2.364/5$2,023$1,54961%73%+$95-$9,57570.8%$-10,359 (vs do-nothing $-9,579)
$9121d7 Aug 2026$2.824/5$1,611$1,13759%71%$-76-$9,39169.5%$-10,175 (vs do-nothing $-9,395)
$907d24 Jul 2026$1.952/5$1,671$1,20257%72%$-99-$5,07037.5%$-5,851 (vs do-nothing $-5,072)
$9014d31 Jul 2026$2.753/5$1,768$1,29656%71%+$55-$7,36454.5%$-8,147 (vs do-nothing $-7,367)
Show 10 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$9021d7 Aug 2026$3.504/5$2,000$1,52656%71%+$74-$9,51970.4%$-10,303 (vs do-nothing $-9,523)
$9028d14 Aug 2026$3.155/5$1,688$1,21156%71%$-251-$12,07489.3%$-12,858 (vs do-nothing $-12,079)
$8928d14 Aug 2026$3.155/5$1,688$1,21153%68%$-504-$12,57493.0%$-13,358 (vs do-nothing $-12,579)
$8921d7 Aug 2026$3.404/5$1,943$1,46953%68%$-245-$9,95973.7%$-10,743 (vs do-nothing $-9,963)
$8914d31 Jul 2026$2.893/5$1,858$1,38652%69%$-155-$7,62256.4%$-8,405 (vs do-nothing $-7,625)
$897d24 Jul 2026$2.602/5$2,229$1,75952%70%+$67-$5,14038.0%$-5,921 (vs do-nothing $-5,142)
$8828d14 Aug 2026$3.704/5$1,586$1,11250%66%$-520-$10,23975.7%$-11,023 (vs do-nothing $-10,243)
$8821d7 Aug 2026$3.554/5$2,029$1,55549%67%$-353-$10,29976.2%$-11,083 (vs do-nothing $-10,303)
$8814d31 Jul 2026$3.153/5$2,025$1,55348%67%$-321-$7,84458.0%$-8,627 (vs do-nothing $-7,847)
$887d24 Jul 2026$2.842/5$2,434$1,96546%67%$-174-$5,29239.1%$-6,073 (vs do-nothing $-5,294)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-17 21:37